Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.9: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2023-2046, until the rate reaches 14.8 percent in 2046. Then increase the payroll tax rate an additional 0.1 percentage point in each year from 2085-2089, until the rate reaches 15.3 percent for 2089 and later.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4013.03-1.37
213
0.000.090.09
202414.5913.16-1.43
197
-0.000.190.19
202514.7813.27-1.52
182
-0.000.280.28
202614.9913.49-1.50
167
-0.000.380.38
202715.1913.60-1.59
153
-0.000.470.47
202815.4313.74-1.69
139
-0.000.570.57
202915.6213.85-1.77
126
-0.000.660.66
203015.8013.96-1.84
113
-0.000.760.76
203115.9614.07-1.89
101
-0.000.850.85
203216.1114.18-1.93
89
-0.000.950.95
203316.2314.28-1.95
77
-0.001.041.05
203416.3214.38-1.94
66
-0.001.141.14
203516.3914.48-1.91
55
-0.001.231.24
203616.4514.58-1.87
44
-0.001.331.33
203716.5114.68-1.83
33
-0.011.421.43
203816.5614.78-1.78
22
-0.011.521.52
203916.6014.88-1.72
12
-0.011.611.62
204016.6114.98-1.63
2
-0.011.701.71
204116.6015.07-1.53
----
-0.011.801.81
204216.5815.17-1.42
----
-0.011.891.90
204316.5515.26-1.29
----
-0.011.992.00
204416.5115.35-1.16
----
-0.012.082.09
204516.4715.44-1.03
----
-0.012.172.19
204616.4415.54-0.90
----
-0.012.272.28
204716.4115.54-0.87
----
-0.022.272.29
204816.3915.54-0.85
----
-0.022.272.29
204916.3715.54-0.82
----
-0.022.272.29
205016.3515.54-0.81
----
-0.022.272.29
205116.3415.54-0.80
----
-0.022.272.29
205216.3415.55-0.80
----
-0.022.272.30
205316.3515.55-0.80
----
-0.022.272.30
205416.3615.55-0.81
----
-0.032.272.30
205516.3815.55-0.83
----
-0.032.272.30
205616.4115.56-0.86
----
-0.032.272.30
205716.4515.56-0.89
----
-0.032.272.31
205816.4915.56-0.93
----
-0.032.282.31
205916.5415.57-0.97
----
-0.042.282.31
206016.5915.57-1.02
----
-0.042.282.31
206116.6415.58-1.06
----
-0.042.282.32
206216.6915.58-1.11
----
-0.042.282.32
206316.7415.59-1.16
----
-0.042.282.32
206416.8015.59-1.20
----
-0.052.282.32
206516.8515.60-1.25
----
-0.052.282.33
206616.9015.60-1.30
----
-0.052.282.33
206716.9615.60-1.36
----
-0.052.282.33
206817.0215.61-1.41
----
-0.052.282.33
206917.0815.61-1.46
----
-0.062.282.34
207017.1415.62-1.52
----
-0.062.282.34
207117.1915.62-1.57
----
-0.062.282.34
207217.2415.63-1.61
----
-0.062.282.34
207317.2815.63-1.65
----
-0.062.282.35
207417.3315.63-1.69
----
-0.072.282.35
207517.3615.64-1.72
----
-0.072.282.35
207617.3915.64-1.75
----
-0.072.282.35
207717.4115.64-1.76
----
-0.072.282.35
207817.4115.65-1.77
----
-0.072.282.36
207917.4015.65-1.76
----
-0.072.282.36
208017.3915.65-1.74
----
-0.072.292.36
208117.3715.65-1.72
----
-0.082.292.36
208217.3515.64-1.70
----
-0.082.292.36
208317.3215.64-1.68
----
-0.082.292.36
208417.3015.64-1.66
----
-0.082.292.37
208517.2815.73-1.54
----
-0.082.382.46
208617.2615.83-1.43
----
-0.082.472.55
208717.2515.92-1.33
----
-0.082.572.65
208817.2516.02-1.23
----
-0.082.662.74
208917.2516.11-1.14
----
-0.082.762.84
209017.2716.12-1.16
----
-0.082.762.85
209117.3116.12-1.18
----
-0.082.762.85
209217.3416.12-1.22
----
-0.082.772.85
209317.3916.13-1.26
----
-0.082.772.85
209417.4416.13-1.31
----
-0.082.772.85


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 16.56% 15.57% -0.99%
2040
-0.03% 1.76% 1.79%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.