Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.6 (2021): Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2021: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.02 | 245 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.25 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.49 | 215 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2024 | 14.81 | 13.08 | -1.73 | 199 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 15.08 | 13.10 | -1.97 | 183 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2026 | 15.33 | 13.13 | -2.20 | 166 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2027 | 15.56 | 13.15 | -2.41 | 149 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2028 | 15.77 | 13.16 | -2.61 | 132 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2029 | 15.96 | 13.18 | -2.78 | 114 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2030 | 16.13 | 13.19 | -2.94 | 97 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2031 | 16.27 | 13.20 | -3.07 | 79 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2032 | 16.39 | 13.21 | -3.18 | 61 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2033 | 16.47 | 13.21 | -3.26 | 42 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2034 | 16.53 | 13.22 | -3.32 | 23 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2035 | 16.56 | 13.22 | -3.34 | 4 | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2036 | 16.57 | 13.22 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2037 | 16.55 | 13.22 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2038 | 16.49 | 13.22 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2039 | 16.41 | 13.22 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2040 | 16.31 | 13.21 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2041 | 16.20 | 13.21 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2042 | 16.08 | 13.20 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2043 | 15.96 | 13.19 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2044 | 15.85 | 13.19 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.91 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2045 | 15.74 | 13.18 | -2.56 | ---- | -0.98 | -0.06 | 0.92 | ||
| 2046 | 15.63 | 13.18 | -2.45 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.06 | 0.99 | ||
| 2047 | 15.52 | 13.17 | -2.35 | ---- | -1.12 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2048 | 15.42 | 13.17 | -2.25 | ---- | -1.20 | -0.07 | 1.13 | ||
| 2049 | 15.32 | 13.16 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.27 | -0.07 | 1.20 | ||
| 2050 | 15.22 | 13.16 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.35 | -0.08 | 1.27 | ||
| 2051 | 15.13 | 13.15 | -1.98 | ---- | -1.42 | -0.08 | 1.34 | ||
| 2052 | 15.05 | 13.15 | -1.91 | ---- | -1.50 | -0.09 | 1.42 | ||
| 2053 | 14.99 | 13.14 | -1.84 | ---- | -1.58 | -0.09 | 1.49 | ||
| 2054 | 14.93 | 13.14 | -1.78 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.09 | 1.57 | ||
| 2055 | 14.87 | 13.14 | -1.74 | ---- | -1.74 | -0.10 | 1.65 | ||
| 2056 | 14.83 | 13.14 | -1.69 | ---- | -1.83 | -0.10 | 1.72 | ||
| 2057 | 14.79 | 13.13 | -1.65 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2058 | 14.75 | 13.13 | -1.62 | ---- | -1.99 | -0.11 | 1.88 | ||
| 2059 | 14.71 | 13.13 | -1.58 | ---- | -2.07 | -0.12 | 1.95 | ||
| 2060 | 14.68 | 13.13 | -1.55 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.12 | 2.03 | ||
| 2061 | 14.64 | 13.13 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.23 | -0.13 | 2.10 | ||
| 2062 | 14.61 | 13.13 | -1.48 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.13 | 2.18 | ||
| 2063 | 14.58 | 13.13 | -1.46 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.25 | ||
| 2064 | 14.55 | 13.12 | -1.43 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.14 | 2.32 | ||
| 2065 | 14.53 | 13.12 | -1.40 | ---- | -2.54 | -0.14 | 2.39 | ||
| 2066 | 14.50 | 13.12 | -1.38 | ---- | -2.61 | -0.15 | 2.47 | ||
| 2067 | 14.48 | 13.12 | -1.36 | ---- | -2.69 | -0.15 | 2.54 | ||
| 2068 | 14.46 | 13.12 | -1.34 | ---- | -2.77 | -0.16 | 2.61 | ||
| 2069 | 14.43 | 13.12 | -1.32 | ---- | -2.84 | -0.16 | 2.68 | ||
| 2070 | 14.41 | 13.12 | -1.29 | ---- | -2.91 | -0.17 | 2.75 | ||
| 2071 | 14.39 | 13.12 | -1.27 | ---- | -2.99 | -0.17 | 2.82 | ||
| 2072 | 14.35 | 13.12 | -1.24 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.17 | 2.88 | ||
| 2073 | 14.32 | 13.11 | -1.21 | ---- | -3.13 | -0.18 | 2.95 | ||
| 2074 | 14.28 | 13.11 | -1.17 | ---- | -3.20 | -0.18 | 3.01 | ||
| 2075 | 14.24 | 13.11 | -1.13 | ---- | -3.26 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2076 | 14.19 | 13.11 | -1.09 | ---- | -3.33 | -0.19 | 3.14 | ||
| 2077 | 14.14 | 13.10 | -1.03 | ---- | -3.39 | -0.19 | 3.19 | ||
| 2078 | 14.08 | 13.10 | -0.98 | ---- | -3.44 | -0.20 | 3.24 | ||
| 2079 | 14.02 | 13.10 | -0.92 | ---- | -3.50 | -0.20 | 3.30 | ||
| 2080 | 13.96 | 13.09 | -0.87 | ---- | -3.55 | -0.20 | 3.35 | ||
| 2081 | 13.90 | 13.09 | -0.81 | ---- | -3.60 | -0.21 | 3.39 | ||
| 2082 | 13.85 | 13.09 | -0.76 | ---- | -3.65 | -0.21 | 3.44 | ||
| 2083 | 13.80 | 13.08 | -0.72 | ---- | -3.71 | -0.21 | 3.50 | ||
| 2084 | 13.76 | 13.08 | -0.68 | ---- | -3.76 | -0.22 | 3.55 | ||
| 2085 | 13.73 | 13.08 | -0.65 | ---- | -3.82 | -0.22 | 3.60 | ||
| 2086 | 13.70 | 13.08 | -0.62 | ---- | -3.88 | -0.22 | 3.66 | ||
| 2087 | 13.67 | 13.08 | -0.60 | ---- | -3.94 | -0.23 | 3.72 | ||
| 2088 | 13.65 | 13.08 | -0.57 | ---- | -4.01 | -0.23 | 3.78 | ||
| 2089 | 13.63 | 13.07 | -0.56 | ---- | -4.07 | -0.23 | 3.84 | ||
| 2090 | 13.61 | 13.07 | -0.54 | ---- | -4.13 | -0.24 | 3.90 | ||
| 2091 | 13.60 | 13.07 | -0.52 | ---- | -4.20 | -0.24 | 3.96 | ||
| 2092 | 13.58 | 13.07 | -0.51 | ---- | -4.26 | -0.24 | 4.02 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.11% | 13.75% | -1.36% | 2035 | -1.56% | -0.09% | 1.47% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.