Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.8: Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors for individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2022 through 2061: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.49 | 215 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.82 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.09 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 183 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2026 | 15.36 | 13.13 | -2.22 | 166 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2027 | 15.59 | 13.15 | -2.44 | 148 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2028 | 15.82 | 13.17 | -2.65 | 131 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2029 | 16.02 | 13.18 | -2.84 | 113 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2030 | 16.20 | 13.19 | -3.01 | 95 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2031 | 16.36 | 13.20 | -3.15 | 77 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2032 | 16.49 | 13.21 | -3.28 | 58 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2033 | 16.60 | 13.22 | -3.38 | 39 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2034 | 16.67 | 13.22 | -3.45 | 20 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2035 | 16.72 | 13.23 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2036 | 16.74 | 13.23 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2037 | 16.74 | 13.23 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2038 | 16.70 | 13.23 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2039 | 16.64 | 13.23 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2040 | 16.56 | 13.22 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2041 | 16.47 | 13.22 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.03 | 0.42 | ||
| 2042 | 16.37 | 13.22 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2043 | 16.27 | 13.21 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2044 | 16.17 | 13.21 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2045 | 16.08 | 13.20 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2046 | 15.99 | 13.20 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2047 | 15.91 | 13.19 | -2.72 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2048 | 15.83 | 13.19 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2049 | 15.75 | 13.18 | -2.56 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2050 | 15.67 | 13.18 | -2.49 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2051 | 15.60 | 13.18 | -2.42 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2052 | 15.55 | 13.18 | -2.37 | ---- | -1.01 | -0.06 | 0.95 | ||
| 2053 | 15.50 | 13.17 | -2.33 | ---- | -1.07 | -0.06 | 1.01 | ||
| 2054 | 15.46 | 13.17 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2055 | 15.44 | 13.17 | -2.26 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2056 | 15.41 | 13.17 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.07 | 1.17 | ||
| 2057 | 15.39 | 13.17 | -2.22 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.07 | 1.23 | ||
| 2058 | 15.38 | 13.17 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.36 | -0.08 | 1.29 | ||
| 2059 | 15.36 | 13.17 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.42 | -0.08 | 1.34 | ||
| 2060 | 15.35 | 13.17 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.08 | 1.40 | ||
| 2061 | 15.34 | 13.17 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.54 | -0.09 | 1.45 | ||
| 2062 | 15.33 | 13.17 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.59 | -0.09 | 1.50 | ||
| 2063 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -1.65 | -0.09 | 1.56 | ||
| 2064 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.61 | ||
| 2065 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.76 | -0.10 | 1.66 | ||
| 2066 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.81 | -0.10 | 1.71 | ||
| 2067 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.11 | 1.76 | ||
| 2068 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2069 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.96 | -0.11 | 1.85 | ||
| 2070 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.01 | -0.11 | 1.89 | ||
| 2071 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.05 | -0.12 | 1.93 | ||
| 2072 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.12 | 1.97 | ||
| 2073 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.13 | -0.12 | 2.00 | ||
| 2074 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.16 | -0.12 | 2.04 | ||
| 2075 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -2.19 | -0.13 | 2.07 | ||
| 2076 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.13 | ---- | -2.22 | -0.13 | 2.09 | ||
| 2077 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -2.24 | -0.13 | 2.11 | ||
| 2078 | 15.26 | 13.17 | -2.09 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.13 | 2.13 | ||
| 2079 | 15.24 | 13.17 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.28 | -0.13 | 2.15 | ||
| 2080 | 15.21 | 13.17 | -2.05 | ---- | -2.30 | -0.13 | 2.17 | ||
| 2081 | 15.19 | 13.16 | -2.03 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.13 | 2.18 | ||
| 2082 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.02 | ---- | -2.32 | -0.13 | 2.19 | ||
| 2083 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.34 | -0.13 | 2.20 | ||
| 2084 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.13 | 2.22 | ||
| 2085 | 15.19 | 13.16 | -2.02 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.14 | 2.23 | ||
| 2086 | 15.21 | 13.16 | -2.04 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.14 | 2.24 | ||
| 2087 | 15.23 | 13.17 | -2.06 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.25 | ||
| 2088 | 15.26 | 13.17 | -2.09 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.14 | 2.26 | ||
| 2089 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.41 | -0.14 | 2.27 | ||
| 2090 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.14 | 2.28 | ||
| 2091 | 15.36 | 13.17 | -2.19 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.14 | 2.29 | ||
| 2092 | 15.40 | 13.18 | -2.22 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.14 | 2.30 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.65% | 13.78% | -1.87% | 2034 | -1.01% | -0.06% | 0.96% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.