Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.4: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2021, multiply all PIA factors each year by 0.991. Stop reductions after 2049. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.02 | 245 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.25 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.49 | 215 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2024 | 14.81 | 13.08 | -1.73 | 199 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 15.07 | 13.10 | -1.97 | 183 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2026 | 15.33 | 13.13 | -2.20 | 166 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2027 | 15.56 | 13.15 | -2.41 | 149 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2028 | 15.77 | 13.16 | -2.61 | 132 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2029 | 15.95 | 13.18 | -2.78 | 114 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2030 | 16.12 | 13.19 | -2.93 | 97 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2031 | 16.26 | 13.20 | -3.06 | 79 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2032 | 16.37 | 13.21 | -3.17 | 61 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2033 | 16.46 | 13.21 | -3.25 | 43 | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2034 | 16.51 | 13.22 | -3.30 | 24 | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2035 | 16.53 | 13.22 | -3.32 | 4 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2036 | 16.53 | 13.22 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2037 | 16.50 | 13.22 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2038 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2039 | 16.34 | 13.21 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2040 | 16.24 | 13.21 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2041 | 16.12 | 13.20 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2042 | 15.99 | 13.19 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2043 | 15.85 | 13.19 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2044 | 15.72 | 13.18 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.06 | 0.98 | ||
| 2045 | 15.60 | 13.17 | -2.42 | ---- | -1.12 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2046 | 15.47 | 13.17 | -2.30 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.07 | 1.14 | ||
| 2047 | 15.34 | 13.16 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.07 | 1.23 | ||
| 2048 | 15.22 | 13.15 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.40 | -0.08 | 1.32 | ||
| 2049 | 15.09 | 13.15 | -1.94 | ---- | -1.50 | -0.08 | 1.41 | ||
| 2050 | 14.97 | 13.14 | -1.83 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.09 | 1.51 | ||
| 2051 | 14.86 | 13.14 | -1.72 | ---- | -1.70 | -0.10 | 1.60 | ||
| 2052 | 14.76 | 13.13 | -1.63 | ---- | -1.80 | -0.10 | 1.70 | ||
| 2053 | 14.67 | 13.13 | -1.54 | ---- | -1.90 | -0.11 | 1.79 | ||
| 2054 | 14.59 | 13.12 | -1.46 | ---- | -2.00 | -0.11 | 1.89 | ||
| 2055 | 14.52 | 13.12 | -1.40 | ---- | -2.10 | -0.12 | 1.98 | ||
| 2056 | 14.45 | 13.12 | -1.34 | ---- | -2.20 | -0.13 | 2.08 | ||
| 2057 | 14.40 | 13.11 | -1.29 | ---- | -2.30 | -0.13 | 2.17 | ||
| 2058 | 14.35 | 13.11 | -1.24 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.25 | ||
| 2059 | 14.31 | 13.11 | -1.21 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.14 | 2.33 | ||
| 2060 | 14.28 | 13.11 | -1.17 | ---- | -2.55 | -0.15 | 2.40 | ||
| 2061 | 14.25 | 13.11 | -1.15 | ---- | -2.62 | -0.15 | 2.47 | ||
| 2062 | 14.23 | 13.11 | -1.13 | ---- | -2.69 | -0.15 | 2.54 | ||
| 2063 | 14.22 | 13.11 | -1.11 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.16 | 2.60 | ||
| 2064 | 14.20 | 13.10 | -1.10 | ---- | -2.81 | -0.16 | 2.65 | ||
| 2065 | 14.20 | 13.10 | -1.09 | ---- | -2.87 | -0.16 | 2.71 | ||
| 2066 | 14.20 | 13.10 | -1.09 | ---- | -2.92 | -0.17 | 2.75 | ||
| 2067 | 14.20 | 13.11 | -1.09 | ---- | -2.97 | -0.17 | 2.80 | ||
| 2068 | 14.21 | 13.11 | -1.10 | ---- | -3.01 | -0.17 | 2.84 | ||
| 2069 | 14.22 | 13.11 | -1.11 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.17 | 2.88 | ||
| 2070 | 14.23 | 13.11 | -1.12 | ---- | -3.09 | -0.18 | 2.92 | ||
| 2071 | 14.24 | 13.11 | -1.14 | ---- | -3.13 | -0.18 | 2.95 | ||
| 2072 | 14.25 | 13.11 | -1.14 | ---- | -3.16 | -0.18 | 2.98 | ||
| 2073 | 14.26 | 13.11 | -1.15 | ---- | -3.19 | -0.18 | 3.00 | ||
| 2074 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.21 | -0.18 | 3.03 | ||
| 2075 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.23 | -0.18 | 3.05 | ||
| 2076 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.25 | -0.19 | 3.06 | ||
| 2077 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.26 | -0.19 | 3.07 | ||
| 2078 | 14.26 | 13.11 | -1.15 | ---- | -3.26 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2079 | 14.25 | 13.11 | -1.14 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2080 | 14.24 | 13.11 | -1.13 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2081 | 14.24 | 13.11 | -1.13 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2082 | 14.23 | 13.11 | -1.12 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.19 | 3.08 | ||
| 2083 | 14.24 | 13.11 | -1.13 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.19 | 3.09 | ||
| 2084 | 14.25 | 13.11 | -1.14 | ---- | -3.28 | -0.19 | 3.09 | ||
| 2085 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.28 | -0.19 | 3.09 | ||
| 2086 | 14.29 | 13.11 | -1.18 | ---- | -3.29 | -0.19 | 3.10 | ||
| 2087 | 14.32 | 13.11 | -1.21 | ---- | -3.30 | -0.19 | 3.11 | ||
| 2088 | 14.35 | 13.12 | -1.24 | ---- | -3.31 | -0.19 | 3.12 | ||
| 2089 | 14.39 | 13.12 | -1.27 | ---- | -3.32 | -0.19 | 3.12 | ||
| 2090 | 14.42 | 13.12 | -1.30 | ---- | -3.33 | -0.19 | 3.14 | ||
| 2091 | 14.46 | 13.12 | -1.34 | ---- | -3.34 | -0.19 | 3.15 | ||
| 2092 | 14.49 | 13.12 | -1.37 | ---- | -3.35 | -0.19 | 3.16 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.07% | 13.75% | -1.33% | 2035 | -1.59% | -0.09% | 1.50% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.