2025 OASDI Trustees Report

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population as well as the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits.

The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rates, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors depend on these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic product, and program-specific factors. Each year, the Trustees reexamine these assumptions and methods in light of new information and make appropriate revisions.

Future levels of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain. To address these uncertainties, this report uses three sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low-cost (alternative I), and high-cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents the Trustees’ best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy as of the time assumptions were set in December 2024. With regard to the net effect on the actuarial status of the OASDI program, the low-cost set is more optimistic and the high-cost set is more pessimistic. The low-cost and high-cost sets of assumptions reflect significant potential changes in the interrelationships among factors, as well as changes in the values for individual factors.

While it is unlikely that all of the factors and interactions will differ in the specified directions from the intermediate values, many combinations of individual differences in the factors could have a similar overall effect. Outcomes with overall long-range cost as low as the low-cost scenario or as high as the high-cost scenario are very unlikely. This report also includes a section on sensitivity analysis, where factors are changed one at a time (see appendix D), and a section on stochastic projections, which provides a probability distribution of possible future outcomes, with most of the key factors being varied around the intermediate alternative (see appendix E).

Readers should interpret the estimates based on the three sets of alternative assumptions with care. These estimates are not specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program. Rather, they are intended to provide a reasonable range of future income and cost.

All of the key demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions reach their long-range ultimate values within the next 25 years. For extrapolations beyond the 75‑year long-range period, the ultimate levels or trends reached by the end of the 75‑year period remain unchanged. The assumed ultimate values represent average annual experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections briefly discuss the various assumptions and methods used in making the estimates of trust fund actuarial status, which are the focus of this report.¹ There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that are important but are beyond the scope of this discussion.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

This section of the report provides a brief overview of the demographic historical data and the assumptions used for the projections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Birth rates by single year of age, for girls and women aged 14 to 49,² are the basis for the fertility assumptions. These rates apply to the total number of women, across all marital statuses, in the midyear population at each age. Table V.A1 displays the historical and projected total fertility rates.³

Historically, birth rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate decreased from 3.31 children per woman in 1918 at the end of World War I to 2.15 in 1936 during the Great Depression. After 1936, the total fertility rate rose to 3.68 in 1957 and then fell to 1.74 by 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate rose above 2.00 by 1990, where it generally remained through 2009. Since then, it has been generally decreasing, reaching an all-time low of 1.62 in 2023.

The variations in the historical total fertility rate resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, birth-control practices, and the racial/ethnic composition of the population. Since the baby-boom era (1946-65), women have had higher educational attainment, higher labor force participation, an older average age at first marriage, and a higher propensity to be unmarried. All of these factors are consistent with continued lower total fertility rates than those experienced during the baby-boom era.

It is unclear whether the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and changes being made and considered in states regarding abortion policy will have a significant effect on future fertility rates. However, there are many factors that indicate that the ultimate total fertility rate may be lower than the average level since the end of the baby-boom era, including results from recent surveys of birth expectations, continued lower total fertility rates in recent years, lower total fertility rates in high-immigrant source countries such as Mexico, increased utilization of more effective birth control, other societal changes including lower marriage rates, and possible concerns about economic opportunity for the future.

The Trustees assume ultimate total fertility rates of 2.10, 1.90, and 1.60 children per woman for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. These rates are the same as the ultimate rates assumed in last year’s report for each alternative.

For the intermediate assumptions, the projected total fertility rate gradually increases on a period (annual) basis through the year the ultimate period value is reached (2050). The assumed low-cost and high-cost total fertility rates trend away from the intermediate path, also reaching their ultimate period values in 2050. The ultimate period values were reached in 2040 in last year’s report. The Trustees continue to assume that recent low rates of period fertility are, in part, indicative of a gradual shift to older ages of childbearing for younger birth cohorts. Reaching the ultimate total fertility rate later than it was reached in last year’s report is consistent with the expectation that the total fertility rate will recover relatively slowly from current low levels.

2. Mortality Assumptions

Mortality projections are developed assuming ultimate average annual percentage reductions in future mortality rates by age group and cause of death. The assumptions are used to estimate future central death rates by age group, sex, and cause of death. From the estimated central death rates, probabilities of death by single year of age and sex are calculated.

Historical death rates were calculated for years 1900 through 2023 for ages below 65 (and for all ages for years prior to 1968) using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).⁴ For ages 65 and over, final Medicare data on deaths for years 1968 through 2021 and preliminary data for 2022 and 2023 were used.⁵ Death rates by cause of death were produced for all ages for years 1979‑2023 using data from the NCHS. Note, however, that regressions used for the model projections do not include data for 2020 through 2023 due to the elevated death rates caused by COVID-19.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate⁶ declined at an average annual rate of 1.02 percent between 1900 and 2019. Between 1979 and 2019, the period for which death rates were analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate, for all causes combined, declined at an average rate of 0.88 percent per year.

Death rates have declined substantially in the U.S. since 1900, with rapid declines over some periods and slow or no improvement over the other periods. Many factors are responsible for historical reductions in death rates, including medical advances, increased availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Historical death rates generally declined more slowly for older ages and more rapidly for children and infants than for the rest of the population. Between 1900 and 2019, the age-sex-adjusted death rate declined at an average rate of 0.78 percent per year for ages 65 and over, and 2.97 percent per year for ages under 15.

Mortality assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost scenarios. Throughout the projection period, the low-cost scenario contains annual percentage reductions that are smaller than those in the intermediate scenario, while those in the high-cost scenario are larger. The ultimate annual percentage reductions for each of the three alternatives are unchanged from last year’s report.

The trends in the annual reductions in central death rates were calculated for the period from 2008 to 2019 for both the NCHS and Medicare data, by age group, sex, and cause of death.⁷ These trends are the starting rates of reduction for alternative II. For alternatives I and III, 50 and 150 percent of the starting rates of reduction are used, respectively. These annual rates of reduction, by alternative, are assumed to transition rapidly from the starting rates of reduction until they reach the ultimate annual rates of reduction assumed for 2049 and later.

Adjustments were made to the assumed death rates for 2024 and 2025 to account for the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The table below shows the multiplicative factors that were applied to the probabilities of death that would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic. Factors for 2020 through 2023 are not necessary, as actual data are available.

Year	Age 0	Ages 1-14	Ages 15-64	Ages 65-84	Ages 85 and older
2024	1.01	1.17	0.99	1.02	0.98
2025	1.00	1.09	1.00	1.00	1.00

Factors for 2024 are based on partial, provisional data through July, and assumptions about the remainder of the year. Compared to the factors used for last year’s report, the factors in the table above for 2024 are higher for ages under 15, lower for ages 15-64 and ages 85 and older, and the same for ages 65-84. The factors in the table above for 2025 are 1.09 for the 1-14 age group and 1.00 for all other ages, whereas the factors for 2025 in last year’s report were 1.00 for all ages.

Note that in the table above, the factors are lower than 1.00 for age groups 15-64 and 85 and older in 2024. This suggests that death probabilities for these age groups in 2024 were lower than they would have been if the pandemic had not occurred. This is consistent with the assumption that increased deaths in the acute phase of the pandemic were primarily an acceleration of deaths that would have occurred in later years.

Projected death rates for years after 2025 are unchanged from the levels that would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic, under the assumption that increased deaths from the residual effects of living through the pandemic (both physiological and psychological) will be roughly offset by decreased deaths that instead happened earlier (during the pandemic).

Table V.A1 contains historical and projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for the total population (all ages), for ages under 65, and for ages 65 and over. Age-sex adjustment eliminates the effect of a changing distribution of population by age and sex. Under the intermediate assumptions, projected total age-sex-adjusted death rates are slightly lower than the rates in last year’s report after 2024. These changes result primarily from incorporating additional historical data and other minor methodological updates. In particular, actual death rates for 2023 are lower than those projected in the 2024 report for all age groups except age 0, where actual death rates exceeded those projected in the 2024 report.

The projected average annual rate of decline between 2024 and 2099 for the total age-sex-adjusted death rate is about 0.27 percent for alternative I, 0.74 percent for alternative II, and 1.26 percent for alternative III.⁸ In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, the assumed future rates of decline are greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a substantially lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, the projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over decline between 2024 and 2099 at average annual rates of about 0.26 percent for alternative I, 0.68 percent for alternative II, and 1.12 percent for alternative III. The projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages under 15 decline between 2024 and 2099 at average annual rates of about 0.59 percent for alternative I, 1.59 percent for alternative II, and 3.00 percent for alternative III.

Demographers express a wide range of views on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, some believe that the long-standing historical tendency for mortality to decline more slowly at the oldest ages will cease in the future. Others believe that biological factors, social factors, and limitations on health care spending may slow future rates of decline in mortality.

.

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,a
Calendar Years 1940-2100 

Calendar year		Total fertility rateb		Age-sex-adjusted death ratec per 100,000
				Total	Under 65	65 and over
Historical data:
	1940	2.23		1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
	1945	2.42		1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
	1950	3.03		1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
	1955	3.50		1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
	1960	3.61		1,454.3	503.2	7,795.6
	1965	2.88		1,428.8	495.2	7,653.9
	1970	2.43		1,350.2	485.8	7,113.9
	1975	1.77		1,214.2	426.2	6,467.8
	1980	1.82		1,145.2	383.9	6,221.5
	1985	1.83		1,088.6	352.8	5,994.7
	1990	2.07		1,026.2	333.3	5,646.0
	1995	1.98		1,005.0	318.3	5,582.9
	2000	2.05		964.1	281.4	5,515.8
	2005	2.06		903.7	271.1	5,121.7
	2010	1.93		821.5	248.5	4,641.9
	2015	1.84		813.7	253.0	4,552.0
	2016	1.81		805.9	258.0	4,458.7
	2017	1.76		810.4	258.2	4,492.0
	2018	1.73		801.8	254.7	4,449.5
	2019	1.70		789.5	253.2	4,365.3
	2020	1.64		918.2	300.0	5,040.0
	2021	1.66		930.8	334.3	4,907.8
	2022	1.66		d867.4	294.7	d4,686.2
	2023	1.62		e802.0	e270.2	e4,347.6
	2024	f1.62		g769.7	g248.5	g4,244.5
Intermediate:
	2025	1.64		764.4	248.8	4,201.9
	2030	1.72		734.3	238.4	4,040.6
	2035	1.80		704.5	227.4	3,885.9
	2040	1.87		676.1	216.5	3,740.0
	2045	1.90		649.2	206.1	3,602.8
	2050	1.90		623.8	196.3	3,474.2
	2055	1.90		600.0	187.0	3,353.4
	2060	1.90		577.6	178.2	3,240.0
	2065	1.90		556.5	170.0	3,133.4
	2070	1.90		536.6	162.1	3,033.1
	2075	1.90		517.8	154.7	2,938.6
	2080	1.90		500.1	147.7	2,849.5
	2085	1.90		483.4	141.1	2,765.4
	2090	1.90		467.6	134.9	2,686.0
	2095	1.90		452.6	128.9	2,610.9
	2100	1.90		438.5	123.3	2,539.8
Low-cost:
	2025	1.67		790.5	258.3	4,339.2
	2030	1.84		781.2	255.7	4,284.9
	2035	1.97		770.8	252.1	4,228.6
	2040	2.07		760.0	248.1	4,172.5
	2045	2.10		749.2	244.1	4,117.2
	2050	2.10		738.6	240.0	4,063.0
	2055	2.10		728.2	236.0	4,010.0
	2060	2.10		718.1	232.1	3,958.1
	2065	2.10		708.1	228.3	3,907.3
	2070	2.10		698.4	224.6	3,857.7
	2075	2.10		688.9	220.9	3,809.1
	2080	2.10		679.5	217.3	3,761.6
	2085	2.10		670.4	213.7	3,715.1
	2090	2.10		661.4	210.3	3,669.5
	2095	2.10		652.7	206.9	3,625.0
	2100	2.10		644.1	203.5	3,581.4
High-cost:
	2025	1.59		732.6	237.2	4,035.6
	2030	1.54		676.5	216.8	3,741.5
	2035	1.55		624.6	197.1	3,474.7
	2040	1.58		578.0	179.0	3,237.6
	2045	1.60		536.4	162.8	3,027.7
	2050	1.60		499.5	148.2	2,841.7
	2055	1.60		466.6	135.2	2,676.3
	2060	1.60		437.2	123.5	2,528.6
	2065	1.60		410.8	113.0	2,396.2
	2070	1.60		387.1	103.6	2,277.0
	2075	1.60		365.7	95.1	2,169.3
	2080	1.60		346.2	87.5	2,071.4
	2085	1.60		328.6	80.6	1,982.3
	2090	1.60		312.5	74.3	1,900.7
	2095	1.60		297.8	68.6	1,825.7
	2100	1.60		284.2	63.4	1,756.5

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a

This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b

The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.

c

Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

d

Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

e

Estimated using preliminary data.

f

Estimated using partial-year, provisional data.

g

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

3. Immigration Assumptions

Projections of the total Social Security area population reflect assumptions for the following four immigration flows:⁹

•	Lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration: The flow of persons who enter the Social Security area and are granted LPR status, or who are already in the Social Security area and adjust their status to become LPRs.10

•	Legal emigration: The flow of LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security area population.

•	Temporary or unlawfully present immigration: The flow of persons who enter the Social Security area and stay to the end of the year without being granted LPR status, such as foreign workers and students entering with temporary visas, and immigrants who enter the country illegally.

•

Temporary or unlawfully present emigration: The flow of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area population or who adjust their status to become LPRs. The stock of immigrants from which these emigrants are drawn includes temporary visa holders, those who entered the Social Security area lawfully on temporary visas but subsequently overstayed their visas, and those who entered the country illegally.

Net LPR immigration is the difference between LPR immigration and legal emigration. Net temporary or unlawfully present immigration is the difference between temporary or unlawfully present immigration and temporary or unlawfully present emigration. Total net immigration refers to the sum of net LPR immigration and net temporary or unlawfully present immigration.

Immigration assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost scenarios. The low-cost scenario includes higher annual net immigration and the high-cost scenario includes lower annual net immigration. Table V.A2 contains historical and projected levels of various immigration flows.

LPR immigration has increased significantly since World War II, due to various factors and legislative changes, including the Immigration Act of 1965 and the Immigration Act of 1990.

LPR new arrival immigration levels dropped significantly in the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic and are estimated to be about 362,000 persons lower in 2020, 234,000 persons lower in 2021, and 12,000 persons lower in 2022 than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. The LPR new arrival immigration level for 2023 is estimated to be about 76,000 persons higher than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, representing the start of an assumed make-up for the lower levels in the prior years. LPR new arrival immigration levels for 2024-26 are assumed to be higher than would have been assumed in the absence of the pandemic, completing the make-up for the lower levels in 2020-22. These pandemic-related effects on LPR new arrival immigration levels in 2024-26 are assumed to be slightly smaller in magnitude than those in last year’s report.

For the intermediate alternative, the ultimate level of annual LPR immigration, which includes residents who adjust their status to become LPRs, is assumed to be 1,050,000 persons for 2027 and later. For alternative I, ultimate annual LPR immigration is assumed to be 1,250,000 persons for 2027 and later, and for alternative III, ultimate annual LPR immigration is assumed to be 850,000 persons for 2027 and later. The ultimate levels of LPR immigration are unchanged from last year’s report.

The assumed ratios of annual legal emigration to LPR immigration are 20, 25, and 30 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. This range is consistent with the limited historical data for legal emigration from the Social Security area. These ratios are unchanged from last year’s report. Under the intermediate alternative, by combining the ultimate annual LPR immigration and legal emigration assumptions, ultimate annual net LPR immigration is about 788,000 persons. Ultimate annual net LPR immigration is 1,000,000 persons for the low-cost scenario and 595,000 persons for the high-cost scenario.

The estimated number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants residing in the Social Security area and the annual level of temporary or unlawfully present immigration were affected significantly by the economic recession of 2007-09. Although temporary or unlawfully present immigration was greatly reduced during the economic downturn and immediate years thereafter, it returned to higher levels for most years from 2014 through 2019, reflecting a recovery from levels experienced during the recession. The COVID-19 pandemic began to affect temporary or unlawfully present immigration in 2020; the estimated level of temporary or unlawfully present immigration is about 510,000 persons lower in 2020 and 95,000 persons lower in 2021 than would have been estimated in the absence of the pandemic.

Data from the Department of Homeland Security indicate a notable increase in border crossings after 2021. The Trustees estimate that historical levels of border crossings in years 2022-24 are higher than had been assumed in last year’s report. They further assume that border crossings will remain somewhat elevated in 2025. As a result, temporary or unlawfully present immigration over years 2022-25 averages a relatively high level of 2,375,000 persons per year, up from the average of 1,484,000 persons per year that was assumed in last year’s report over the same time period.

The ultimate annual levels of temporary or unlawfully present immigration are 1,350,000 persons for alternative II, 1,850,000 persons for alternative I, and 850,000 persons for alternative III. These ultimate levels are unchanged from those used in last year’s report. The ultimate levels are attained in 2026 for all three alternatives.

Emigration from the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population includes those who leave the Social Security area and those who adjust their status to become LPRs. This temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population is highly mobile and far more likely to leave the Social Security area than is the citizen or LPR population. However, as unlawfully present immigrants stay in the country for longer periods of time, they generally become less likely to leave the country.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the total annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area averages about 426,000 through the 75‑year projection period. The ultimate annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who adjust status to become LPRs is assumed to be 450,000 for the intermediate assumptions and is unchanged from last year’s report. The total annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area averages about 582,000 for the low-cost scenario and 268,000 for the high-cost scenario through the 75‑year projection period. The ultimate annual number of people adjusting status to LPR status is assumed to be 550,000 persons for the low-cost scenario and 350,000 persons for the high-cost scenario; these levels are unchanged from last year’s report.

The projected size of the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population grows substantially under the intermediate assumptions, from about 19.9 million by the end of 2025 to about 35.0 million by the end of 2099. This growth reflects the excess of annual immigration over the combined annual numbers of emigrants (including adjustments of status) and deaths that occur within the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected levels of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration gradually decrease over time. Because the projected number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants leaving the Social Security area is based on rates of departure, an increase in the number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants residing in the Social Security area results in an increase in the number who emigrate out of the area. All other components of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration are assumed to be stable after 2025, and thus do not contribute toward any change in annual net temporary or unlawfully present immigration. Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected average annual level of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration over the 75-year projection period is about 482,000 persons. Projected average annual net temporary or unlawfully present immigration is about 729,000 persons under the low-cost assumptions and 238,000 persons under the high-cost assumptions.

The projected average annual level of total net immigration (LPR immigration and temporary or unlawfully present immigration, combined) is about 1,273,000 persons per year during the 75-year projection period under the intermediate assumptions. Projected average annual total net immigration is about 1,733,000 persons under the low-cost assumptions and about 836,000 persons under the high-cost assumptions.

Demographers express a wide range of views about the future course of immigration for the United States. Some believe that net immigration will increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants may be increasingly attracted to other countries, that the number of potential immigrants may be lower due to lower birth rates in many countries, or that changes in the law or enforcement of the law will reduce immigration.

Table V.A2.—Immigration Assumptions,a Calendar Years 1940-2100 

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Lawful permanent resident (LPR)					Temporary or unlawfully presentb				Total net change
		Inflow	Outflowc	Adjustments of statusd e	Net change		Inflow	Outflow	Adjustments of statusd e	Net change
Historical data:
	1940	61	15	—	46		—	—	—	—	—
	1945	73	18	—	55		—	—	—	—	—
	1950	227	57	—	171		—	—	—	—	—
	1955	280	70	—	210		—	—	—	—	—
	1960	268	67	—	201		—	—	—	—	—
	1965	279	77	31	232		—	—	31	—	—
	1970	307	93	65	279		—	—	65	—	—
	1975	342	98	51	294		—	—	51	—	—
	1980	430	135	112	406		—	—	112	203	610
	1985	458	144	119	432		—	—	119	261	693
	1990	545	166	1,114	1,493		—	—	1,114	-371	1,122
	1995	509	192	260	577		—	—	260	557	1,134
	2000	482	224	413	672		1,358	368	413	577	1,249
	2005	561	290	597	869		1,645	33	597	1,015	1,884
	2010	622	262	426	786		647	205	426	17	803
	2015	702	280	419	841		1,262	180	419	663	1,503
	2016	770	297	418	891		1,081	658	418	6	896
	2017	703	276	399	827		884	238	399	247	1,073
	2018	693	273	397	818		738	543	397	-202	615
	2019	543	258	489	774		882	885	489	-492	281
	2020	238	145	344	436		690	70	344	276	713
	2021	366	209	471	628		1,205	460	471	274	902
	2022	588	262	462	787		f2,200	f258	462	f1,480	f2,267
	2023	676	298	516	894		g2,700	f264	516	g1,920	g2,814
	2024	g763	g316	g500	g947		g2,600	g314	g500	g1,786	g2,733
Intermediate:
	2025	763	303	450	910		2,000	358	450	1,192	2,102
	2030	600	263	450	788		1,350	364	450	536	1,323
	2035	600	263	450	788		1,350	380	450	520	1,308
	2040	600	263	450	788		1,350	398	450	502	1,289
	2045	600	263	450	788		1,350	416	450	484	1,272
	2050	600	263	450	788		1,350	427	450	473	1,260
	2055	600	263	450	788		1,350	432	450	468	1,255
	2060	600	263	450	788		1,350	437	450	463	1,251
	2065	600	263	450	788		1,350	440	450	460	1,247
	2070	600	263	450	788		1,350	444	450	456	1,244
	2075	600	263	450	788		1,350	446	450	454	1,242
	2080	600	263	450	788		1,350	448	450	452	1,240
	2085	600	263	450	788		1,350	449	450	451	1,238
	2090	600	263	450	788		1,350	451	450	449	1,237
	2095	600	263	450	788		1,350	451	450	449	1,236
	2100	600	263	450	788		1,350	452	450	448	1,235
Low-cost:
	2025	863	283	550	1,130		2,700	392	550	1,758	2,889
	2030	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	433	550	867	1,867
	2035	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	472	550	828	1,828
	2040	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	514	550	786	1,786
	2045	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	553	550	747	1,747
	2050	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	581	550	719	1,719
	2055	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	598	550	702	1,702
	2060	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	612	550	688	1,688
	2065	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	622	550	678	1,678
	2070	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	629	550	671	1,671
	2075	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	635	550	665	1,665
	2080	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	639	550	661	1,661
	2085	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	642	550	658	1,658
	2090	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	644	550	656	1,656
	2095	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	645	550	655	1,655
	2100	700	250	550	1,000		1,850	645	550	655	1,655
High-cost:
	2025	663	304	350	709		1,300	324	350	626	1,335
	2030	500	255	350	595		850	296	350	204	799
	2035	500	255	350	595		850	287	350	213	808
	2040	500	255	350	595		850	282	350	218	813
	2045	500	255	350	595		850	279	350	221	816
	2050	500	255	350	595		850	273	350	227	822
	2055	500	255	350	595		850	266	350	234	829
	2060	500	255	350	595		850	261	350	239	834
	2065	500	255	350	595		850	257	350	243	838
	2070	500	255	350	595		850	255	350	245	840
	2075	500	255	350	595		850	254	350	246	841
	2080	500	255	350	595		850	253	350	247	842
	2085	500	255	350	595		850	253	350	247	842
	2090	500	255	350	595		850	253	350	247	842
	2095	500	255	350	595		850	253	350	247	842
	2100	500	255	350	595		850	253	350	247	842

---

a

This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b

Historical estimates of immigration to (inflow), and emigration from (outflow), the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population depend on a residual method. The Office of the Chief Actuary developed these estimates, as well as the resulting temporary or unlawfully present January 1 stock estimates, for years through 2000. For years 2001 and later, the residual method uses stock estimates. For 2001 through 2004, the stock is set to values that linearly grade from the 2000 stock estimate to the 2005 stock estimate. Stock estimates are developed by the Office of the Chief Actuary, based on the latest methods used by the Department of Homeland Security.

c

Includes both LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security area population.

d

Estimates include persons who attained LPR status under the special one-time provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

e

Adjustments of status are a positive for net LPR immigration and a negative for net temporary or unlawfully present immigration.

f

Estimated.

g

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

4. Total Population Estimates

The starting Social Security area population for December 31, 2022, is derived from the Census Bureau’s estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C. and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. Adjustments are made to reflect mortality assumptions for the aged population since 2020 that are consistent with Medicare and Social Security data, net immigration assumptions for the aged population since 2020, estimates of the net undercount in the 2020 census, inclusion of U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories), and inclusion of non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the Social Security area population by age, sex, and marital status for December 31 of each year from 2023 through 2099 by combining the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration with assumptions for marriage and divorce. Previous sections of this chapter present the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration. Assumptions for future rates of marriage and divorce reflect historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Census Bureau, and selected individual States.

This report presents a July 1 (i.e., midyear) population for each year, which is derived from surrounding December populations. Table V.A3 shows the historical and projected population for July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. It also shows the aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A3.—Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios,
Calendar Years 1945-2100 

Calendar year		Population (in thousands)					Dependency ratio
		Under 20	20-64	65 and over	Total		Aged a	Total b
Historical data:
	1945	49,107	87,890	10,886	147,883		0.124	0.683
	1950	53,918	92,190	12,789	158,897		.139	.724
	1955	63,337	96,003	15,161	174,500		.158	.818
	1960	72,915	99,752	17,323	189,990		.174	.905
	1965	80,005	104,881	19,153	204,039		.183	.945
	1970	80,856	112,953	21,007	214,815		.186	.902
	1975	78,576	122,592	23,370	224,538		.191	.832
	1980	74,841	134,029	26,315	235,184		.196	.755
	1985	72,893	144,586	29,129	246,609		.201	.706
	1990	74,791	152,730	31,926	259,447		.209	.699
	1995	79,287	160,733	34,294	274,314		.213	.707
	2000	81,980	170,138	35,501	287,620		.209	.691
	2005	83,906	180,820	37,132	301,858		.205	.669
	2010	85,687	188,381	41,016	315,084		.218	.673
	2015	84,758	194,455	47,711	326,924		.245	.681
	2016	84,826	195,333	49,253	329,411		.252	.686
	2017	84,779	195,950	50,840	331,568		.259	.692
	2018	84,631	196,366	52,498	333,495		.267	.698
	2019	84,302	196,399	54,240	334,941		.276	.705
	2020	83,857	196,384	55,889	336,130		.285	.712
	2021	83,331	196,462	57,404	337,197		.292	.716
	2022c	83,078	196,976	59,124	339,177		.300	.722
	2023d	82,988	198,203	60,971	342,161		.308	.726
	2024d	83,034	199,564	62,835	345,433		.315	.731
Intermediate:
	2025	83,024	200,715	64,665	348,404		.322	.736
	2030	81,865	203,623	72,664	358,152		.357	.759
	2035	82,604	206,999	77,361	366,963		.374	.773
	2040	84,997	210,207	79,889	375,094		.380	.784
	2045	88,528	212,180	81,549	382,256		.384	.802
	2050	90,798	213,474	84,100	388,372		.394	.819
	2055	91,756	214,827	87,445	394,029		.407	.834
	2060	91,963	216,625	91,350	399,937		.422	.846
	2065	92,472	219,167	94,849	406,488		.433	.855
	2070	93,941	220,944	98,573	413,457		.446	.871
	2075	96,051	222,037	102,241	420,329		.460	.893
	2080	98,095	224,144	104,528	426,767		.466	.904
	2085	99,524	227,526	105,762	432,812		.465	.902
	2090	100,415	232,425	105,939	438,779		.456	.888
	2095	101,233	236,743	107,012	444,988		.452	.880
	2100	102,374	240,154	109,090	451,617		.454	.881
Low-cost:
	2025	83,643	201,977	64,628	350,247		.320	.734
	2030	84,340	206,833	72,232	363,405		.349	.757
	2035	87,843	212,033	76,296	376,172		.360	.774
	2040	93,562	216,975	78,038	388,574		.360	.791
	2045	100,486	220,694	78,882	400,063		.357	.813
	2050	105,217	224,641	80,692	410,549		.359	.828
	2055	107,927	229,496	83,432	420,855		.364	.834
	2060	109,878	235,201	86,878	431,957		.369	.837
	2065	112,712	241,655	90,013	444,380		.372	.839
	2070	117,121	247,353	93,314	457,788		.377	.851
	2075	122,350	252,644	96,462	471,456		.382	.866
	2080	127,240	259,501	98,218	484,959		.378	.869
	2085	131,063	268,381	98,954	498,398		.369	.857
	2090	134,136	279,317	98,774	512,227		.354	.834
	2095	137,324	289,179	100,380	526,883		.347	.822
	2100	141,210	297,543	103,797	542,550		.349	.823
High-cost:
	2025	82,398	199,477	64,725	346,600		.324	.738
	2030	79,017	200,536	73,255	352,808		.365	.759
	2035	76,296	202,198	78,805	357,299		.390	.767
	2040	74,525	203,782	82,398	360,704		.404	.770
	2045	73,826	204,088	85,164	363,078		.417	.779
	2050	73,223	202,405	88,725	364,353		.438	.800
	2055	72,372	199,577	92,880	364,829		.465	.828
	2060	70,922	196,615	97,356	364,893		.495	.856
	2065	69,185	194,359	101,233	364,776		.521	.877
	2070	67,744	191,336	105,319	364,400		.550	.904
	2075	66,770	187,355	109,387	363,512		.584	.940
	2080	66,075	183,801	112,033	361,910		.610	.969
	2085	65,350	180,709	113,524	359,583		.628	.990
	2090	64,441	178,545	113,732	356,718		.637	.998
	2095	63,385	176,700	113,448	353,533		.642	1.001
	2100	62,352	174,948	112,912	350,212		.645	1.002

---

a

Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over to the population at ages 20-64.

b

Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over and the population under age 20 to the population at ages 20‑64.

c

Estimated.

d

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Notes:
1. Historical data are subject to revision.
2. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or the average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is an additional way to summarize the Trustees’ mortality assumptions. This report includes life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, in two different forms (period and cohort), which are useful for separate purposes.

•

Period life expectancy at a selected age for a particular year incorporates the actual or expected death rates at the selected age and each older age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates at or above the given age experienced in a single year. Period life expectancy for a particular year provides an individual’s expected average remaining lifetime at a selected age, assuming no change in death rates after that year. Table V.A4 presents historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a period basis.

•

Cohort life expectancy does not incorporate death rates for a single year, but for the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives. Cohort life expectancy provides the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a particular year, using actual or expected future death rates for the selected age and all succeeding ages. Table V.A5 presents historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a cohort basis. Cohort life expectancy is generally greater than period life expectancy for a given year because: (1) death rates at any age generally decline over time; and (2) cohort life expectancy uses death rates for future years, while period life expectancy uses death rates only for the given year.

Life expectancy at a given age reflects death rates at that and all older ages. Period life expectancy is somewhat related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate discussed in section V.A.2. However, life expectancy places far greater weight on death rates at relatively younger ages (those at or just above the given age) than those at relatively older ages. Therefore, changes in death rates at young ages, particularly in infancy, affect life expectancy at birth to a much greater degree than changes in death rates at older ages. It is important to keep this concept in mind when considering trends in life expectancy.

Table V.A4.—Period Life Expectancy a

		Historical data
Calendar year		At birth			At age 65
		Male	Female		Male	Female
	1940	61.4	65.7		11.9	13.4
	1945	62.9	68.4		12.6	14.4
	1950	65.6	71.1		12.8	15.1
	1955	66.7	72.8		13.1	15.6
	1960	66.7	73.2		12.9	15.9
	1965	66.8	73.8		12.9	16.3
	1970	67.1	74.9		13.1	17.1
	1975	68.7	76.6		13.7	18.0
	1980	69.9	77.5		14.0	18.4
	1985	71.1	78.2		14.4	18.6
	1990	71.8	78.9		15.0	19.0
	1995	72.5	79.1		15.4	19.0
	2000	74.0	79.4		15.9	19.0
	2005	74.8	80.0		16.7	19.5
	2010	76.1	80.9		17.5	20.2
	2015	76.2	80.9		17.8	20.3
	2016	76.1	81.0		17.9	20.5
	2017	76.0	81.0		17.9	20.4
	2018	76.2	81.1		17.9	20.5
	2019	76.3	81.3		18.1	20.7
	2020	74.2	79.8		16.9	19.6
	2021	73.5	79.3		16.9	19.7
	2022b	74.7	80.2		17.5	20.1
	2023c	75.8	81.1		18.1	20.7
	2024d	76.6	81.5		18.3	20.9
		Intermediate						Low-cost						High-cost
Calendar year		At birth			At age 65			At birth			At age 65			At birth			At age 65
		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female
	2025	76.7	81.6		18.4	21.0		76.2	81.2		18.2	20.7		77.2	82.1		18.7	21.3
	2030	77.2	82.1		18.7	21.3		76.4	81.4		18.3	20.8		78.3	82.9		19.4	21.8
	2035	77.7	82.5		19.1	21.6		76.5	81.5		18.4	20.9		79.3	83.8		20.0	22.4
	2040	78.3	83.0		19.4	21.8		76.7	81.7		18.5	21.0		80.3	84.6		20.6	22.9
	2045	78.8	83.4		19.7	22.1		76.9	81.8		18.6	21.1		81.2	85.4		21.2	23.4
	2050	79.3	83.8		20.0	22.4		77.1	82.0		18.7	21.2		82.1	86.1		21.7	23.9
	2055	79.8	84.2		20.3	22.6		77.3	82.2		18.8	21.3		82.9	86.8		22.2	24.3
	2060	80.3	84.6		20.6	22.9		77.5	82.3		18.9	21.4		83.7	87.4		22.7	24.8
	2065	80.8	85.0		20.9	23.2		77.6	82.5		19.0	21.5		84.5	88.0		23.1	25.2
	2070	81.2	85.4		21.1	23.4		77.8	82.6		19.1	21.6		85.1	88.5		23.6	25.5
	2075	81.7	85.7		21.4	23.6		78.0	82.8		19.2	21.7		85.8	89.0		24.0	25.9
	2080	82.1	86.1		21.7	23.9		78.2	82.9		19.3	21.8		86.4	89.5		24.4	26.2
	2085	82.5	86.4		21.9	24.1		78.4	83.1		19.4	21.9		87.0	90.0		24.8	26.6
	2090	82.9	86.7		22.2	24.3		78.5	83.2		19.5	22.0		87.5	90.4		25.1	26.9
	2095	83.3	87.1		22.4	24.5		78.7	83.3		19.6	22.1		88.1	90.8		25.5	27.2
	2100	83.7	87.4		22.6	24.7		78.9	83.5		19.7	22.2		88.6	91.2		25.8	27.4

---

a

The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for that year over the course of his or her remaining life.

b

Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

c

Estimated using preliminary data.

d

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Table V.A5.—Cohort Life Expectancya

Calendar year	Intermediate						Low-cost						High-cost
	At birthb			At age 65c			At birthb			At age 65c			At birthb			At age 65c
	Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female
1940	70.1	76.4		12.7	14.7		70.1	76.3		12.7	14.7		70.2	76.5		12.7	14.7
1945	71.9	78.0		13.0	15.4		71.7	77.8		13.0	15.4		72.1	78.3		13.0	15.4
1950	73.0	79.3		13.1	16.2		72.7	79.0		13.1	16.2		73.4	79.8		13.1	16.2
1955	73.5	79.8		13.1	16.7		73.1	79.3		13.1	16.7		74.2	80.5		13.1	16.7
1960	74.2	80.2		13.2	17.4		73.6	79.5		13.2	17.4		75.1	81.1		13.2	17.4
1965	75.1	80.8		13.5	18.0		74.2	79.8		13.5	18.0		76.3	82.0		13.5	18.0
1970	76.3	81.6		13.8	18.5		75.1	80.4		13.8	18.5		77.8	83.1		13.8	18.5
1975	77.1	82.3		14.2	18.7		75.7	80.9		14.2	18.7		79.0	84.1		14.2	18.7
1980	77.8	82.9		14.7	18.8		76.1	81.3		14.7	18.8		80.1	85.0		14.7	18.8
1985	78.4	83.4		15.4	19.0		76.4	81.6		15.4	19.0		81.0	85.8		15.4	19.0
1990	78.9	83.9		16.0	19.3		76.7	81.8		16.0	19.3		81.9	86.5		16.0	19.3
1995	79.6	84.4		16.7	19.6		77.1	82.1		16.6	19.6		82.8	87.2		16.7	19.7
2000	80.1	84.8		17.3	20.0		77.3	82.3		17.3	19.9		83.6	87.9		17.4	20.1
2005	80.6	85.2		17.8	20.4		77.4	82.4		17.7	20.3		84.4	88.4		17.9	20.6
2010	81.1	85.6		18.2	20.7		77.7	82.6		18.0	20.5		85.2	89.0		18.5	21.1
2015	81.6	86.0		18.5	21.1		77.9	82.8		18.1	20.7		85.9	89.5		19.0	21.7
2016	81.7	86.0		18.5	21.2		77.9	82.8		18.1	20.7		86.0	89.6		19.1	21.8
2017	81.7	86.1		18.5	21.2		78.0	82.9		18.1	20.7		86.1	89.7		19.2	21.9
2018	81.8	86.2		18.6	21.3		78.0	82.9		18.1	20.7		86.3	89.8		19.3	22.0
2019	81.9	86.2		18.7	21.3		78.1	82.9		18.1	20.8		86.4	89.9		19.4	22.1
2020	82.0	86.3		18.7	21.4		78.1	83.0		18.2	20.8		86.6	90.0		19.6	22.3
2021	82.1	86.4		18.9	21.5		78.1	83.0		18.2	20.8		86.7	90.1		19.8	22.4
2022	82.2	86.4		19.0	21.6		78.2	83.0		18.3	20.9		86.8	90.2		20.0	22.6
2023	82.3	86.5		19.1	21.7		78.2	83.0		18.4	21.0		86.9	90.3		20.1	22.7
2024	82.4	86.6		19.2	21.8		78.3	83.1		18.4	21.0		87.1	90.4		20.3	22.9
2025	82.5	86.7		19.3	21.8		78.3	83.1		18.4	21.0		87.2	90.5		20.4	23.0
2030	82.9	87.0		19.6	22.1		78.5	83.3		18.5	21.1		87.9	91.0		21.0	23.5
2035	83.3	87.4		19.9	22.4		78.7	83.4		18.6	21.2		88.5	91.5		21.6	24.0
2040	83.8	87.7		20.2	22.7		78.8	83.6		18.8	21.3		89.0	91.9		22.2	24.5
2045	84.2	88.0		20.5	22.9		79.0	83.7		18.9	21.4		89.6	92.3		22.7	24.9
2050	84.5	88.3		20.8	23.2		79.2	83.9		19.0	21.5		90.1	92.7		23.2	25.3
2055	84.9	88.6		21.1	23.5		79.4	84.0		19.1	21.6		90.6	93.0		23.7	25.7
2060	85.3	88.8		21.4	23.7		79.5	84.1		19.2	21.7		91.0	93.3		24.1	26.1
2065	85.6	89.1		21.6	23.9		79.7	84.3		19.3	21.8		91.4	93.7		24.5	26.5
2070	86.0	89.4		21.9	24.2		79.9	84.4		19.4	21.9		91.8	94.0		24.9	26.8
2075	86.3	89.6		22.2	24.4		80.0	84.5		19.5	22.0		92.2	94.3		25.3	27.1
2080	86.6	89.9		22.4	24.6		80.2	84.7		19.6	22.1		92.6	94.6		25.7	27.4
2085	86.9	90.1		22.7	24.8		80.4	84.8		19.7	22.2		93.0	94.8		26.0	27.7
2090	87.2	90.3		22.9	25.0		80.5	84.9		19.8	22.3		93.3	95.1		26.4	28.0
2095	87.5	90.5		23.1	25.2		80.7	85.1		19.9	22.3		93.7	95.3		26.7	28.3
2100	87.8	90.8		23.4	25.4		80.8	85.2		20.0	22.4		94.0	95.6		27.0	28.5

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a

The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives.

b

Cohort life expectancy at birth for those born in the calendar year is based on a combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates for birth years 1940 through 2022. For birth years after 2022, these values depend on estimated and projected death rates.

c

Age 65 cohort life expectancy for those attaining age 65 in calendar years 1940 through 2021 is based on a combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates. After 2021, these values depend on estimated and projected death rates.

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1

Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, contain further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates. A complete list of available studies may be found at www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables and additional documentation on assumptions and methods, may be found at www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/.

2

Birth rates at age 14 include births to girls aged 14 and under, and birth rates at age 49 include births to women aged 49 and over.

3

The total fertility rate may be interpreted as the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, a specified year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of about 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if immigration and emigration were both zero, and if death rates were to remain at current levels.

4

These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population. NCHS death data for 2023 are provisional.

5

These rates reflect Medicare data on deaths and enrollments.

6

Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

7

Cause of death is only available for the NCHS data.

8

These average annual rates of decline between 2024 and 2099 are not directly comparable with the 75-year average annual rates of decline shown in recent reports. This is because the death rates for the first year in each report's valuation period, which are used as the starting points for the 75-year geometric averages, have varied significantly due to the effects of the pandemic.

9

The general modeling approach for immigration is unchanged from last year’s report, but the terminology used has been updated. The Trustees now use the term “temporary or unlawfully present” rather than “other-than-LPR.”

10

Persons who enter the country with valid visas but without LPR status, such as temporary foreign workers and students, are not included in the “LPR immigration” category.