TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. OVERVIEW

• A. INTRODUCTION
• B. ADVISORY COUNCIL
• C. HIGHLIGHTS
• D. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS
• E. INTRODUCTION TO ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
• F. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS
• G. SHORT-RANGE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
• H. LONG-RANGE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
• I. CONCLUSION

II. ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS

• A. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 1994 REPORT
• B. DESCRIPTION OF THE TRUST FUNDS
• C. SUMMARY OF THE OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS, FISCAL YEAR 1994
• D. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS
• E. AUTOMATIC ADJUSTMENTS
• F. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
• G. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
• H. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING THE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

III. APPENDICES

• A. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES FOR THE OASDI AND HI PROGRAMS, COMBINED
• B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND OPERATIONS IN DOLLARS
• C. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND OPERATIONS AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
• D. TEN YEAR HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES
• E. ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
• F. FEDERAL REGISTER NOTICE: 1995 COST-OF-LIVING INCREASE AND OTHER DETERMINATIONS
• G. GLOSSARY
• H. STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION

TABLES

DESCRIPTION OF THE TRUST FUNDS

• II.B1 - Contribution and Benefit Base and Contribution Rates

SUMMARY OF THE OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS, FISCAL YEAR 1994

• II.C1 - Statement of Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Fiscal Year 1994
• II.C2 - Assets of the OASI Trust Fund, by Type, Interest Rate, and Year of Maturity, at End of Fiscal Year, 1993 and 1994
• II.C3 - Statement of Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Fiscal Year 1994
• II.C4 - Assets of the DI Trust Fund, by Type, Interest Rate, and Year of Maturity, at End of Fiscal Year, 1993 and 1994
• II.C5 - Statement of Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Fiscal Year 1994
• II.C6 - Comparison of Actual and Estimated Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Fiscal Year 1994
• II.C7 - Estimated Distribution of Benefit Payments From the OASI and DI Trust Funds, by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, Fiscal Years 1993 and 1994
• II.C8 - Net Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Contribution Income and of Benefit Payments, by Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 1990-94
• II.C9 - Investment Transactions of the OASI and DI Trust Funds in Fiscal Year 1994

PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS

• II.D1 - Selected Economic Assumptions by Alternative, Calendar Years 1960-2070
• II.D2 - Selected Demographic Assumptions by Alternative, Calendar Years 1940-2070

AUTOMATIC ADJUSTMENTS

• II.E1 - Average Wage Index, Calendar Years 1951-93
• II.E2 - Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2004

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

• II.F1 - Estimated Operations of the OASI Trust Fund by Alternative, Calendar Years 1994-2004
• II.F2 - Estimated Operations of the DI Trust Fund by Alternative, Calendar Years 1994-2004
• II.F3 - Estimated Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, by Alternative, Calendar Years 1994-2004
• II.F4 - Trust Fund Ratios by Trust Fund, Selected Calendar Years 1950-94, and Estimated Future Ratios by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2004
• II.F5 - Change in OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection, Based on the Intermediate Assumptions, By Reason for Change
• II.F6 - Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates, by Trust Fund, Selected Calendar Years 1950-94, and Estimated Rates by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2004
• II.F7 - Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1940-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F8 - Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar Years 1940-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F9 - Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F10 - Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F11 - Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F12 - Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Calendar Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1995-2004, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions
• II.F13 - Comparison of Estimated Income Rates and Cost Rates by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• II.F14 - Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for 25-Year Subperiods, by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2069
• II.F15 - Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2069
• II.F16 - Comparison of Estimated Long-Range Actuarial Balances With the Minimum Allowable for the Test for Close Actuarial Balance by Trust Fund, Based on Intermediate Assumptions
• II.F17 - Components of Annual Income Rates by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• II.F18 - Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2069
• II.F19 - Comparison of OASDI Covered Workers and Beneficiaries by Alternative, Calendar Years 1945-2070
• II.F20 - Estimated Trust Fund Ratios by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• II.F21 - Change in Actuarial Balance Over the Next 75 Years Based on Intermediate Assumptions by Trust Fund and Reason for Change

LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

• II.G1 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Fertility Assumptions
• II.G2 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Death-Rate Assumptions
• II.G3 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Net-Immigration Assumptions
• II.G4 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Real-Wage Assumptions
• II.G5 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various CPI-Increase Assumptions
• II.G6 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Real-Interest Assumptions
• II.G7 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Disability Incidence Assumptions
• II.G8 - Estimated OASDI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances, Based on Intermediate Estimates With Various Disability Termination Assumptions

ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING THE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

• II.H1 - Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios, by Alternative and Broad Age Group, Calendar Years 1950-2070
• II.H2 - OASI Beneficiaries With Monthly Benefits in Current-Payment Status as of December 31 by Alternative, Calendar Years 1945-2070
• II.H3 - DI Beneficiaries With Monthly Benefits in Current-Payment Status as of December 31 by Alternative, Calendar Years 1960-2070

ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES FOR THE OASDI AND HI PROGRAMS, COMBINED

• III.A1 - Contribution Rates for the OASDI and HI Programs
• III.A2 - Comparison of Estimated Income Rates and Cost Rates for OASDI and HI by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• III.A3 - Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for the 25-Year Subperiods, for OASDI and HI by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2069
• III.A4 - Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, for OASDI and HI by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2069

LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND OPERATIONS IN DOLLARS

• III.B1 - Selected Economic Variables by Alternative, Calendar Years 1994-2070
• III.B2 - Estimated Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in Constant 1995 Dollars by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• III.B3 - Estimated Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in Current Dollars by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• III.B4 - Estimated OASDI and HI Income Excluding Interest, Outgo, and Balance in Current Dollars by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• III.B5 - Estimated Average Benefit Amount Payable to Retired Workers With Various Steady Pre-Retirement Earnings Levels Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 1995-2070

LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND OPERATIONS AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

• III.C1 - Estimated OASDI and HI Income Excluding Interest, Outgo, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070
• III.C2 - Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP by Alternative, Calendar Years 1995-2070

TEN YEAR HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES

• III.D1 - Long-Range Actuarial Balances for the OASDI Program as Shown for the Intermediate Assumptions in the Trustees Reports Issued in Years 1985-1995

ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

• III.E1 - Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries, Selected Calendar Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Disbursements During 1995-2004 Based on Intermediate Assumptions
• III.E2 - Benefit Disbursements Under the OASDI Program With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries, by Trust Fund, Selected Calendar Years 1960-94 and Estimated Future Disbursements During 1995-2004 Based on Intermediate Assumptions