Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

III.A8.—DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates
(Awards per thousand exposed, by age and gender, calendar years awarded 1980-2014)
Year
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-NRA 1
Total
Gross
Adjusted
 
Male
1980
0.32
0.82
1.12
1.60
2.51
3.90
6.13
9.99
17.06
21.42
15.18
5.04
5.58
1985
.27
.95
1.57
2.01
2.59
3.64
5.47
9.15
14.38
17.08
10.35
4.63
5.05
1990
.40
1.09
1.75
2.40
3.01
3.75
5.15
8.39
14.83
17.59
9.96
4.70
5.15
1995
.45
1.19
1.88
2.83
3.69
4.60
5.97
9.56
16.87
20.23
11.01
5.64
5.96
1996
.42
1.08
1.67
2.51
3.34
4.21
5.61
8.97
15.68
18.62
10.15
5.24
5.50
1997
.38
1.03
1.42
2.06
2.77
3.68
4.98
8.15
14.56
17.42
9.72
4.77
4.94
1998
.38
1.04
1.41
1.99
2.70
3.73
5.09
8.23
14.18
17.08
9.44
4.80
4.91
1999
.39
1.12
1.44
1.91
2.69
3.73
5.05
8.08
13.80
16.86
10.05
4.80
4.85
2000
.40
1.26
1.51
1.82
2.62
3.59
4.82
7.86
13.55
16.64
9.22
4.74
4.74
2001
.53
1.59
1.86
2.07
2.83
3.83
5.11
8.36
14.22
17.60
9.22
5.17
5.10
2002
.61
1.88
1.94
2.14
2.98
4.04
5.46
8.86
14.90
18.37
9.26
5.58
5.39
2003
.56
1.62
1.91
2.24
3.06
4.16
5.63
9.10
15.19
18.46
9.08
5.75
5.47
2004
.45
1.54
1.89
2.27
2.97
4.13
5.63
9.02
15.17
18.52
7.88
5.79
5.43
2005
.69
1.68
1.94
2.25
2.99
4.01
5.35
8.52
14.12
17.51
9.32
5.65
5.23
2006
.58
1.54
1.81
2.10
2.83
3.82
5.13
8.22
13.67
17.21
8.84
5.51
5.02
2007
.58
1.52
1.78
2.07
2.80
3.77
5.05
8.09
13.41
17.20
8.54
5.51
4.95
2008
.64
1.58
1.84
2.13
2.86
3.83
5.11
8.16
13.47
17.61
8.44
5.66
5.03
2009
.78
1.72
1.99
2.27
3.01
3.96
5.27
8.32
13.65
17.82
9.54
5.90
5.19
2010
.68
1.61
1.89
2.17
2.91
3.87
5.19
8.27
13.63
17.76
9.41
5.88
5.11
2011
.51
1.46
1.73
2.01
2.75
3.72
5.05
8.14
13.52
17.62
9.19
5.78
4.96
2012
.52
1.47
1.74
2.02
2.76
3.74
5.08
8.18
13.58
17.68
9.32
5.84
4.98
2013
.52
1.47
1.74
2.03
2.77
3.77
5.10
8.22
13.63
17.73
9.51
5.89
5.00
2014
.52
1.48
1.75
2.04
2.77
3.78
5.10
8.25
13.68
17.81
9.52
5.94
5.02
 
Female
1980
.19
.38
.66
1.18
2.08
3.19
4.89
7.51
11.96
13.10
8.80
3.35
3.95
1985
.12
.48
.85
1.33
1.83
2.72
4.08
6.78
9.79
10.49
6.46
3.00
3.43
1990
.22
.60
1.02
1.50
2.10
2.90
4.30
6.90
11.03
11.24
6.45
3.26
3.71
1995
.32
.82
1.38
2.21
3.16
4.18
5.61
9.26
14.70
14.94
8.19
4.76
5.06
1996
.27
.75
1.29
2.12
3.11
4.19
5.61
9.13
14.17
14.29
7.70
4.69
4.93
1997
.26
.71
1.19
1.94
2.87
3.99
5.29
8.55
13.25
13.62
7.31
4.47
4.63
1998
.23
.76
1.23
1.98
2.95
4.09
5.53
8.73
13.42
13.65
7.27
4.63
4.73
1999
.24
.84
1.32
1.90
2.94
4.13
5.52
8.36
13.32
13.85
7.71
4.66
4.71
2000
.28
.94
1.38
1.90
2.88
3.95
5.18
7.98
12.84
13.52
6.83
4.56
4.56
2001
.36
1.16
1.72
2.19
3.19
4.27
5.59
8.43
13.53
14.31
7.34
5.01
4.94
2002
.38
1.37
1.85
2.32
3.39
4.57
6.02
8.86
13.71
15.01
7.55
5.38
5.20
2003
.37
1.26
1.83
2.46
3.45
4.65
6.07
8.92
13.77
15.14
7.02
5.52
5.25
2004
.33
1.24
1.85
2.52
3.38
4.64
6.07
9.01
13.72
15.39
6.21
5.63
5.26
2005
.53
1.34
1.89
2.48
3.39
4.52
5.83
8.45
13.01
14.71
7.58
5.51
5.09
2006
.43
1.22
1.76
2.33
3.23
4.33
5.61
8.18
12.65
14.52
7.24
5.38
4.90
2007
.43
1.21
1.75
2.31
3.20
4.28
5.54
8.07
12.46
14.58
7.06
5.39
4.86
2008
.49
1.27
1.81
2.36
3.27
4.34
5.61
8.14
12.52
14.92
7.20
5.54
4.93
2009
.63
1.41
1.95
2.50
3.41
4.47
5.76
8.30
12.69
15.09
8.04
5.76
5.08
2010
.52
1.31
1.85
2.41
3.32
4.38
5.70
8.25
12.68
15.02
7.92
5.74
5.00
2011
.36
1.15
1.70
2.26
3.17
4.25
5.57
8.14
12.60
14.91
7.74
5.64
4.87
2012
.36
1.16
1.71
2.28
3.19
4.29
5.61
8.20
12.69
15.01
7.85
5.72
4.90
2013
.37
1.17
1.72
2.30
3.20
4.33
5.64
8.26
12.78
15.11
8.04
5.79
4.94
2014
.37
1.18
1.73
2.31
3.22
4.36
5.67
8.32
12.87
15.22
8.08
5.86
4.97
 
Total
1980
.26
.63
.92
1.44
2.36
3.65
5.66
9.03
15.04
18.15
12.66
4.36
4.82
1985
.20
.74
1.25
1.72
2.28
3.27
4.89
8.17
12.47
14.34
8.77
3.93
4.30
1990
.32
.86
1.41
2.00
2.62
3.38
4.78
7.74
13.18
14.86
8.43
4.06
4.48
1995
.39
1.02
1.65
2.55
3.46
4.41
5.80
9.42
15.89
17.87
9.74
5.24
5.54
1996
.35
.92
1.49
2.33
3.24
4.20
5.61
9.04
14.99
16.68
9.04
4.99
5.24
1997
.32
.88
1.31
2.01
2.82
3.82
5.12
8.33
13.96
15.72
8.61
4.63
4.80
1998
.31
.91
1.33
1.98
2.81
3.89
5.29
8.46
13.83
15.53
8.46
4.72
4.83
1999
.31
.99
1.38
1.90
2.81
3.91
5.27
8.21
13.58
15.50
9.00
4.73
4.78
2000
.34
1.10
1.45
1.86
2.74
3.75
4.99
7.91
13.22
15.22
8.16
4.66
4.66
2001
.45
1.38
1.79
2.13
3.00
4.03
5.33
8.39
13.90
16.09
8.38
5.10
5.02
2002
.50
1.63
1.90
2.22
3.17
4.29
5.72
8.86
14.35
16.83
8.48
5.49
5.30
2003
.47
1.45
1.87
2.34
3.24
4.38
5.83
9.02
14.52
16.93
8.13
5.64
5.37
2004
.39
1.40
1.87
2.39
3.16
4.37
5.84
9.01
14.49
17.06
7.11
5.71
5.35
2005
.61
1.52
1.92
2.36
3.18
4.24
5.58
8.49
13.59
16.20
8.51
5.59
5.17
2006
.51
1.39
1.78
2.21
3.01
4.06
5.36
8.20
13.18
15.95
8.10
5.45
4.97
2007
.51
1.38
1.77
2.18
2.98
4.01
5.28
8.08
12.95
15.97
7.86
5.45
4.91
2008
.57
1.43
1.83
2.24
3.05
4.06
5.35
8.15
13.01
16.34
7.87
5.60
4.99
2009
.70
1.57
1.97
2.38
3.20
4.20
5.50
8.31
13.18
16.52
8.85
5.83
5.14
2010
.60
1.46
1.87
2.28
3.10
4.11
5.43
8.26
13.16
16.45
8.72
5.81
5.06
2011
.44
1.31
1.72
2.13
2.95
3.97
5.30
8.14
13.07
16.32
8.52
5.71
4.92
2012
.44
1.32
1.72
2.14
2.96
4.00
5.33
8.19
13.15
16.39
8.64
5.78
4.95
2013
.44
1.33
1.73
2.16
2.97
4.03
5.36
8.24
13.21
16.46
8.82
5.84
4.97
2014
.45
1.34
1.74
2.17
2.98
4.05
5.37
8.28
13.28
16.55
8.85
5.90
5.00

1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA."

Sources:

Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

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