Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
Source:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
|
Year
|
62-64
|
65 or older
|
Total
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Insured
|
Uninsured
|
Total
|
Insured
|
Uninsured
|
Total
|
Insured
|
Uninsured
|
Total
|
|
|
Aged wives
|
|||||||||
|
1980
|
17.6
|
409.8
|
427.3
|
64.9
|
2,290.4
|
2,355.3
|
82.5
|
2,700.1
|
2,782.6
|
|
1981
|
17.9
|
411.8
|
429.7
|
66.4
|
2,309.2
|
2,375.6
|
84.2
|
2,721.0
|
2,805.3
|
|
1982
|
18.6
|
424.9
|
443.5
|
67.1
|
2,320.2
|
2,387.3
|
85.7
|
2,745.1
|
2,830.8
|
|
1983
|
19.6
|
443.4
|
463.0
|
68.6
|
2,349.3
|
2,417.8
|
88.1
|
2,792.7
|
2,880.8
|
|
1984
|
21.2
|
456.6
|
477.9
|
72.4
|
2,352.7
|
2,425.1
|
93.7
|
2,809.3
|
2,903.0
|
|
1985
|
22.2
|
453.7
|
476.0
|
76.7
|
2,373.5
|
2,450.2
|
98.9
|
2,827.3
|
2,926.2
|
|
1986
|
22.9
|
446.4
|
469.3
|
81.2
|
2,400.1
|
2,481.2
|
104.1
|
2,846.5
|
2,950.6
|
|
1987
|
23.5
|
437.8
|
461.4
|
85.4
|
2,412.6
|
2,498.0
|
108.9
|
2,850.4
|
2,959.3
|
|
1988
|
24.1
|
429.2
|
453.3
|
89.2
|
2,420.9
|
2,510.1
|
113.3
|
2,850.1
|
2,963.4
|
|
1989
|
24.3
|
415.4
|
439.8
|
94.0
|
2,438.8
|
2,532.9
|
118.4
|
2,854.3
|
2,972.6
|
|
1990
|
24.8
|
406.6
|
431.5
|
98.5
|
2,452.9
|
2,551.4
|
123.3
|
2,859.6
|
2,982.9
|
|
1991
|
25.4
|
399.1
|
424.5
|
102.8
|
2,462.2
|
2,564.9
|
128.1
|
2,861.3
|
2,989.5
|
|
1992
|
26.0
|
393.0
|
419.0
|
107.0
|
2,472.7
|
2,579.7
|
133.0
|
2,865.6
|
2,998.7
|
|
1993
|
26.2
|
381.7
|
407.9
|
110.6
|
2,464.9
|
2,575.6
|
136.8
|
2,846.6
|
2,983.4
|
|
1994
|
26.1
|
367.5
|
393.7
|
113.9
|
2,450.7
|
2,564.6
|
140.1
|
2,818.2
|
2,958.3
|
|
1995
|
25.2
|
342.8
|
368.0
|
117.0
|
2,435.9
|
2,552.9
|
142.3
|
2,778.6
|
2,920.9
|
|
1996
|
25.1
|
319.9
|
345.0
|
123.1
|
2,407.0
|
2,530.1
|
148.2
|
2,726.9
|
2,875.1
|
|
1997
|
22.9
|
303.8
|
326.7
|
116.7
|
2,387.5
|
2,504.3
|
139.6
|
2,691.4
|
2,831.0
|
|
1998
|
23.0
|
290.9
|
314.0
|
120.0
|
2,342.5
|
2,462.5
|
143.0
|
2,633.4
|
2,776.4
|
|
1999
|
23.6
|
279.1
|
302.7
|
127.4
|
2,295.1
|
2,422.5
|
151.0
|
2,574.2
|
2,725.2
|
|
2000
|
23.2
|
281.8
|
304.9
|
124.3
|
2,281.1
|
2,405.4
|
147.5
|
2,562.9
|
2,710.4
|
|
2001
|
24.7
|
267.3
|
292.0
|
131.6
|
2,230.9
|
2,362.5
|
156.3
|
2,498.2
|
2,654.5
|
|
2002
|
25.2
|
252.7
|
277.9
|
133.3
|
2,182.2
|
2,315.5
|
158.5
|
2,434.9
|
2,593.4
|
|
2003
|
25.8
|
237.0
|
262.8
|
134.8
|
2,136.2
|
2,271.0
|
160.6
|
2,373.2
|
2,533.8
|
|
2004
|
25.0
|
233.0
|
258.0
|
135.9
|
2,087.1
|
2,223.0
|
160.9
|
2,320.1
|
2,481.0
|
|
2005
|
25.3
|
247.0
|
272.2
|
136.9
|
2,043.0
|
2,179.9
|
162.2
|
2,290.0
|
2,452.2
|
|
2006
|
26.2
|
255.0
|
281.2
|
139.3
|
2,009.6
|
2,148.9
|
165.6
|
2,264.6
|
2,430.1
|
|
2007
|
26.9
|
256.2
|
283.1
|
142.4
|
1,986.4
|
2,128.7
|
169.3
|
2,242.6
|
2,411.9
|
|
2008
|
28.1
|
259.7
|
287.8
|
145.9
|
1,967.4
|
2,113.2
|
174.0
|
2,227.0
|
2,401.0
|
|
2009
|
30.3
|
269.4
|
299.7
|
149.8
|
1,949.6
|
2,099.5
|
180.1
|
2,219.0
|
2,399.2
|
|
2010
|
32.6
|
277.1
|
309.7
|
154.3
|
1,936.3
|
2,090.6
|
186.9
|
2,213.4
|
2,400.3
|
|
2011
|
34.1
|
275.0
|
309.1
|
159.6
|
1,933.3
|
2,092.9
|
193.7
|
2,208.3
|
2,402.0
|
|
2012
|
34.9
|
265.1
|
300.0
|
165.9
|
1,939.8
|
2,105.7
|
200.8
|
2,204.9
|
2,405.7
|
|
2013
|
35.8
|
254.6
|
290.4
|
173.0
|
1,944.6
|
2,117.6
|
208.8
|
2,199.3
|
2,408.0
|
|
2014
|
36.7
|
246.0
|
282.7
|
180.5
|
1,944.8
|
2,125.3
|
217.2
|
2,190.8
|
2,408.0
|
|
Aged husbands
|
|||||||||
|
1980
|
1/
|
.9
|
.9
|
.3
|
38.0
|
38.3
|
.4
|
38.9
|
39.2
|
|
1981
|
.8
|
.8
|
.4
|
37.3
|
37.7
|
.4
|
38.2
|
38.6
|
|
|
1982
|
.8
|
.8
|
.4
|
36.6
|
37.1
|
.4
|
37.5
|
37.9
|
|
|
1983
|
.9
|
.9
|
.5
|
35.9
|
36.4
|
.5
|
36.8
|
37.3
|
|
|
1984
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.7
|
34.7
|
35.4
|
.7
|
35.6
|
36.4
|
|
|
1985
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.7
|
33.9
|
34.6
|
.7
|
34.9
|
35.6
|
|
|
1986
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.7
|
32.9
|
33.6
|
.7
|
33.9
|
34.6
|
|
|
1987
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.7
|
31.9
|
32.6
|
.7
|
32.9
|
33.6
|
|
|
1988
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.7
|
30.8
|
31.5
|
.7
|
31.7
|
32.5
|
|
|
1989
|
.9
|
.9
|
.7
|
30.0
|
30.8
|
.7
|
31.0
|
31.7
|
|
|
1990
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.7
|
29.3
|
30.1
|
.8
|
30.3
|
31.0
|
|
|
1991
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.8
|
28.7
|
29.5
|
.8
|
29.7
|
30.5
|
|
|
1992
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.8
|
28.3
|
29.1
|
.8
|
29.3
|
30.1
|
|
|
1993
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
.8
|
28.1
|
28.9
|
.9
|
29.1
|
29.9
|
|
|
1994
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
.8
|
27.8
|
28.6
|
.9
|
28.9
|
29.7
|
|
|
1995
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
.9
|
27.7
|
28.6
|
.9
|
28.7
|
29.7
|
|
|
1996
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.9
|
27.6
|
28.5
|
1.0
|
28.6
|
29.5
|
|
|
1997
|
.9
|
.9
|
1.0
|
27.8
|
28.8
|
1.0
|
28.7
|
29.7
|
|
|
1998
|
.9
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
27.9
|
29.0
|
1.1
|
28.9
|
29.9
|
|
|
1999
|
.1
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
28.3
|
29.4
|
1.2
|
29.3
|
30.5
|
|
2000
|
.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
29.9
|
31.2
|
1.3
|
31.0
|
32.3
|
|
2001
|
.1
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
31.1
|
32.4
|
1.4
|
32.2
|
33.6
|
|
2002
|
.1
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
32.2
|
33.8
|
1.7
|
33.4
|
35.1
|
|
2003
|
.1
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.8
|
33.3
|
35.1
|
1.9
|
34.6
|
36.5
|
|
2004
|
.1
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
2.0
|
34.8
|
36.8
|
2.1
|
36.1
|
38.2
|
|
2005
|
.1
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
33.4
|
35.4
|
2.1
|
34.9
|
37.0
|
|
2006
|
.1
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
2.0
|
32.5
|
34.5
|
2.2
|
34.0
|
36.2
|
|
2007
|
.1
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
31.8
|
33.9
|
2.2
|
33.4
|
35.7
|
|
2008
|
.1
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
31.1
|
33.2
|
2.3
|
32.8
|
35.0
|
|
2009
|
.1
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
30.8
|
33.0
|
2.3
|
32.5
|
34.8
|
|
2010
|
.1
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
30.6
|
32.8
|
2.4
|
32.3
|
34.7
|
|
2011
|
.2
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.3
|
30.6
|
32.9
|
2.5
|
32.4
|
34.8
|
|
2012
|
.2
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
31.1
|
33.5
|
2.6
|
32.9
|
35.4
|
|
2013
|
.2
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.5
|
31.7
|
34.2
|
2.6
|
33.5
|
36.2
|
|
2014
|
.2
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.6
|
32.6
|
35.1
|
2.7
|
34.4
|
37.1
|
| 1Fewer than 50. |
Source:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
|
Year
|
60-64
|
65-69
|
70-74
|
75-79
|
80-84
|
85-89
|
90 or older
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Aged widow
|
||||||||
|
1980
|
0.502
|
0.249
|
0.108
|
0.035
|
0.042
|
0.045
|
0.045
|
0.121
|
|
1981
|
1.874
|
.374
|
.163
|
.052
|
.063
|
.068
|
.068
|
.259
|
|
1982
|
.739
|
.692
|
.302
|
.098
|
.117
|
.126
|
.126
|
.284
|
|
1983
|
.586
|
.673
|
.294
|
.095
|
.114
|
.123
|
.123
|
.266
|
|
1984
|
.681
|
.843
|
.173
|
.050
|
.139
|
.088
|
.717
|
.309
|
|
1985
|
1.177
|
2.100
|
.811
|
.120
|
.257
|
.088
|
.400
|
.652
|
|
1986
|
1.768
|
2.210
|
.855
|
.198
|
.358
|
.150
|
.750
|
.790
|
|
1987
|
2.028
|
2.385
|
.956
|
.245
|
.386
|
.195
|
.737
|
.878
|
|
1988
|
1.537
|
2.485
|
1.147
|
.488
|
.642
|
.911
|
.971
|
1.095
|
|
1989
|
1.460
|
2.592
|
1.115
|
.700
|
.787
|
1.111
|
1.100
|
1.203
|
|
1990
|
.096
|
1.078
|
1.574
|
1.200
|
1.207
|
1.956
|
1.797
|
1.336
|
|
1991
|
.105
|
1.200
|
1.459
|
1.280
|
1.381
|
2.318
|
2.132
|
1.466
|
|
1992
|
.157
|
1.744
|
1.935
|
1.960
|
2.030
|
3.016
|
2.949
|
2.073
|
|
1993
|
.158
|
1.720
|
1.777
|
1.952
|
2.023
|
2.647
|
3.027
|
2.003
|
|
1994
|
.221
|
2.365
|
2.454
|
2.553
|
2.781
|
3.401
|
3.946
|
2.687
|
|
1995
|
.273
|
2.776
|
2.909
|
2.922
|
3.191
|
3.600
|
4.540
|
3.080
|
|
1996
|
.329
|
3.269
|
3.514
|
3.224
|
3.579
|
3.816
|
5.083
|
3.491
|
|
1997
|
.355
|
3.472
|
3.860
|
3.204
|
3.722
|
3.741
|
5.193
|
3.611
|
|
1998
|
.380
|
3.825
|
4.196
|
3.442
|
3.954
|
3.952
|
5.632
|
3.887
|
|
1999
|
.439
|
4.313
|
4.490
|
3.859
|
4.230
|
4.346
|
6.232
|
4.276
|
|
2000
|
.496
|
4.620
|
4.605
|
4.061
|
4.398
|
4.609
|
6.599
|
4.507
|
|
2001
|
.593
|
5.232
|
5.511
|
4.674
|
4.892
|
5.156
|
7.183
|
5.117
|
|
2002
|
.668
|
6.269
|
6.278
|
5.703
|
5.005
|
5.895
|
8.605
|
5.879
|
|
2003
|
.721
|
6.645
|
4.562
|
5.714
|
4.489
|
7.675
|
10.314
|
6.107
|
|
2004 1
|
6.471
|
4.888
|
4.170
|
2.348
|
1.162
|
.549
|
1.877
|
2.384
|
|
2005
|
6.348
|
4.883
|
4.187
|
2.359
|
1.159
|
.548
|
1.877
|
2.352
|
|
2006
|
6.354
|
4.888
|
4.191
|
2.349
|
1.155
|
.547
|
1.877
|
2.333
|
|
2007
|
6.283
|
4.892
|
4.177
|
2.322
|
1.152
|
.548
|
1.877
|
2.315
|
|
2008
|
6.313
|
4.841
|
4.163
|
2.307
|
1.146
|
.547
|
1.877
|
2.305
|
|
2009
|
6.370
|
4.812
|
4.172
|
2.326
|
1.153
|
.548
|
1.877
|
2.305
|
|
2010
|
6.421
|
4.781
|
4.200
|
2.332
|
1.160
|
.548
|
1.877
|
2.310
|
|
2011
|
6.457
|
4.790
|
4.230
|
2.318
|
1.151
|
.549
|
1.877
|
2.317
|
|
2012
|
6.467
|
4.791
|
4.250
|
2.283
|
1.136
|
.549
|
1.877
|
2.325
|
|
2013
|
6.467
|
4.781
|
4.246
|
2.266
|
1.124
|
.550
|
1.877
|
2.337
|
|
2014
|
6.438
|
4.774
|
4.235
|
2.291
|
1.140
|
.549
|
1.877
|
2.359
|
|
Aged widower
|
||||||||
|
1980
|
32.443
|
4.738
|
4.881
|
4.853
|
4.862
|
4.860
|
4.882
|
7.101
|
|
1981
|
57.855
|
9.444
|
9.600
|
9.571
|
9.483
|
9.474
|
9.546
|
13.541
|
|
1982
|
35.399
|
16.540
|
16.484
|
16.502
|
16.479
|
16.405
|
16.552
|
18.087
|
|
1983
|
36.144
|
21.662
|
21.733
|
21.739
|
21.715
|
21.742
|
21.648
|
23.012
|
|
1984
|
35.532
|
51.357
|
34.589
|
24.316
|
14.454
|
7.584
|
2.357
|
27.254
|
|
1985
|
35.335
|
54.452
|
41.158
|
28.918
|
18.721
|
11.040
|
3.947
|
31.302
|
|
1986
|
26.291
|
56.450
|
46.298
|
33.894
|
21.964
|
13.229
|
3.700
|
33.749
|
|
1987
|
27.089
|
58.495
|
51.251
|
37.005
|
25.458
|
16.223
|
7.161
|
37.063
|
|
1988
|
24.073
|
56.187
|
53.816
|
39.826
|
28.470
|
19.482
|
9.768
|
38.224
|
|
1989
|
26.564
|
59.995
|
58.333
|
44.697
|
33.662
|
24.257
|
13.664
|
42.942
|
|
1990
|
28.210
|
56.522
|
60.049
|
48.704
|
38.821
|
32.460
|
22.028
|
45.365
|
|
1991
|
28.493
|
55.119
|
60.490
|
50.387
|
41.898
|
41.718
|
37.153
|
47.984
|
|
1992
|
24.105
|
47.647
|
57.510
|
55.047
|
45.350
|
41.302
|
35.788
|
47.452
|
|
1993
|
22.125
|
46.594
|
58.709
|
58.599
|
48.126
|
41.405
|
38.597
|
49.124
|
|
1994
|
21.025
|
40.181
|
53.312
|
62.122
|
55.157
|
49.023
|
48.674
|
51.192
|
|
1995
|
19.632
|
41.374
|
58.464
|
69.178
|
57.992
|
48.367
|
51.254
|
55.082
|
|
1996
|
20.068
|
36.730
|
59.726
|
68.887
|
58.697
|
54.886
|
58.527
|
56.612
|
|
1997
|
16.017
|
49.641
|
66.327
|
73.165
|
65.044
|
55.516
|
61.213
|
60.903
|
|
1998
|
13.914
|
45.268
|
66.632
|
75.351
|
69.386
|
57.152
|
62.407
|
62.497
|
|
1999
|
23.372
|
28.693
|
64.532
|
73.164
|
69.152
|
54.942
|
58.448
|
60.464
|
|
2000
|
31.362
|
26.103
|
60.365
|
73.079
|
73.795
|
59.050
|
61.110
|
62.268
|
|
2001
|
25.000
|
33.537
|
63.391
|
74.744
|
74.631
|
58.285
|
60.739
|
63.614
|
|
2002
|
14.529
|
26.622
|
63.716
|
74.550
|
77.365
|
70.820
|
67.094
|
65.856
|
|
2003
|
11.681
|
22.446
|
60.812
|
74.753
|
76.477
|
74.571
|
70.977
|
67.299
|
|
2004 1
|
25.400
|
35.054
|
51.151
|
61.506
|
75.565
|
79.705
|
70.496
|
67.567
|
|
2005
|
25.465
|
39.462
|
49.960
|
61.567
|
75.086
|
79.498
|
70.496
|
66.687
|
|
2006
|
25.654
|
40.175
|
50.363
|
61.634
|
75.103
|
79.202
|
70.496
|
66.326
|
|
2007
|
25.695
|
40.364
|
51.231
|
61.650
|
75.496
|
79.315
|
70.496
|
66.068
|
|
2008
|
25.625
|
39.745
|
51.369
|
61.481
|
75.818
|
79.567
|
70.496
|
65.953
|
|
2009
|
25.568
|
38.557
|
51.393
|
61.482
|
75.405
|
79.989
|
70.496
|
65.919
|
|
2010
|
25.655
|
37.352
|
50.729
|
61.621
|
75.485
|
80.375
|
70.496
|
65.957
|
|
2011
|
25.712
|
37.550
|
49.574
|
61.669
|
75.496
|
80.254
|
70.496
|
65.890
|
|
2012
|
25.672
|
37.567
|
48.918
|
61.706
|
76.274
|
80.045
|
70.496
|
65.873
|
|
2013
|
25.705
|
36.997
|
48.983
|
61.741
|
75.766
|
79.744
|
70.496
|
65.597
|
|
2014
|
25.711
|
36.741
|
49.234
|
61.641
|
75.374
|
79.769
|
70.496
|
65.432
|
| 1Revised historical estimates of insured versus uninsured beneficiaries for 2004. Future editions will extend the revision to prior historical years. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.