A Stochastic Model
of the Long-Range Financial Status
of the OASDI Program—September 2004

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Table of Contents

I. Introduction

II. Equation Selection and Parameter Estimation

A. Fertility

B. Mortality

C. Immigration

1. Legal Immigration

2. Legal Emigration

3. Net Other Immigration

D. Related Economic Variables

1. Unemployment Rate

2. Inflation Rate

3. Real Interest Rate

E. Real Average Covered Wage (Percent Change)

F. Disability Incidence Rate

G. Disability Recovery Rate

III. Documentation of the Computer Program

A. Organization

B. Modules

1. Assumptions

2. Population

3. Economics

4. Insured (Fully Insured and Disability Insured)

5. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries (DIB)

6. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries (OASIB)

7. Awards

8. Cost

9. Summary Results

IV. Results

A. Assumptions

1. Fertility

2. Mortality

3. Immigration

4. Unemployment Rate

5. Inflation Rate

6. Real Interest Rate

7. Real Average Covered Wage

8. Disability Incidence Rate

9. Disability Recovery Rate

B. Actuarial Estimates

1. Annual Measures

2. Summary Measures

C. Sensitivity Analysis

1. Stochastic Analysis

2. Deterministic Analysis

V. Appendices

A. Principal Measures of Financial Status

1. Trust Fund Operations

2. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

3. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries

4. Trust Fund Ratios

5. Actuarial Balance, Summarized Rates, Open Group Unfunded Obligation

B. Time-Series Analysis

1. Background

2. Methods

C. Monte Carlo Simulation

D. Equation Parameter Estimates and Regression Statistics

E. Glossary

F. Bibliography

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