ACTUARIAL NOTE
 
 
SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION
Number 146
June 2005
Office of the Chief Actuary
Baltimore, Maryland
Death Termination Experience for DI disabled workers and
SSI disabled adults with HIV-related impairments
by Nettie Barrick and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

Introduction

It has been over 20 years since disabled beneficiaries first appeared on the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) rolls as a result of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Since the first several hundred of such beneficiaries began receiving payments in 1982, the Social Security Administration has monitored the epidemic's impact on expenditures from the DI Trust Fund as well as expenditures of Federal general revenue under the SSI program.

This monitoring process has involved periodic examinations of agency administrative records for cases on the DI or SSI program rolls that could be identified as receiving disability benefits, at least in part, due to infection with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). The results of these analyses were used to produce rough estimates of historical and projected program expenditures due to HIV. Modeling the impact of HIV on program expenditures required an understanding of the circumstances causing HIV-infected persons to apply for benefits, the factors involved in favorable disability determinations, and the reasons that HIV beneficiaries leave the rolls.

The primary reason for termination of benefits payable to HIV beneficiaries has been death, so a careful examination of mortality experience is clearly a key to understanding duration on the rolls. Prior evaluations of HIV mortality had been done on a rough aggregate basis. The purpose of this note is to present the detailed results of the first person-based mortality study of the extensive data that we have collected. The current study is based on a total of roughly 1.4 million life-years of exposure distributed over two 5-year periods: 1992-96 and 1997-2001, and represents the most extensive case study of HIV mortality produced from administrative records.

History of the HIV data collection project

As indicated, this study represents the culmination of two decades of efforts to track the impact of HIV on the cash benefit programs administered by the Social Security Administration (SSA). The agency's collection of administrative data that provide the basis for this study was developed over time as the world's scientific community gained a greater understanding of the effects of HIV infection on diverse body systems. Those findings have, in turn, come to affect SSA's evaluation of claims for disability benefits based on the presence of the infection. To fully appreciate the value of the current study, as well as its limitations, it is important to have some understanding of how SSA's collection of HIV data has evolved over the past 20 years.

In the early years of the HIV epidemic, infected persons who presented themselves as claimants for DI or SSI benefits, most often did so as a result of one or more diseases, such as Kaposi's sarcoma and pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. These particular diseases appeared to be present primarily due to an impaired immune system which resulted from the presence of an HIV infection. Such claims were tentatively identified as being associated with HIV, and the claims folders were forwarded to SSA headquarters for confirmation. The first data collection on HIV claimants was the result of this manual examination of claims folders.

As the HIV epidemic spread, and the number of disability claims grew correspondingly, SSA could no longer manage the "hand-selection" of cases for its compilation of HIV data. As a proxy for the manual identification process, the Office of the Chief Actuary compiled a list of certain impairment codes1 commonly assigned to HIV cases, which was then used to electronically retrieve the corresponding administrative records from SSA's two main payment record files—the Master Beneficiary Record (MBR) for DI and the Supplemental Security Record (SSR) for SSI.

However, since no single impairment code yet existed for HIV, and since the assignment of impairment codes can be subject to some misclassification in the claims taking process, the selection of cases included in SSA's compilation of HIV data was exposed to both type I and type II error.2 Nevertheless, the overall characteristics of the cases identified seemed consistent with the cases that had been identified in the earlier manual folder evaluation, providing some assurance that the cases under study were to a large degree correctly identified.

When the World Health Organization introduced ICD series 042.0-044.9 specifically for HIV-related diseases3, SSA followed with a corresponding series of impairment codes. At that time all HIV-related impairments were to be assigned a diagnosis code in that range. As a result, the collection of data shifted to identifying new cases using the now-familiar HIV diagnosis codes of 042, 043, and 044, while continuing to track the experience of HIV cases that had been identified under prior evaluations.

Soon after, some information was added to the data collection process from the agency's transactions file for disability claims processed by the State Disability Determinations Services—known as the 831 file. In addition to the primary diagnosis code—which is carried on the MBR and SSR—the 831 file also contains a secondary diagnosis code. This code allowed us to identify additional cases involving HIV as a contributing (if not the primary) reason for impairment.

Since 1990, our process for collecting HIV data has remained relatively unchanged. Administrative data on previously identified cases is updated every six months, in June and December. At the same time, newly-identified HIV beneficiary cases are added to the data collection.

SSA's evaluation of HIV-related impairments

In addition to changes in the way we have collected data on HIV cases, the standards used to evaluate potential HIV disability claims have also been modified over time as medical knowledge of HIV has progressed. While SSA has tried to remain consistent with the criteria and rationale of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization, the agency has found it necessary to define its own guidelines for evaluating HIV-related impairments from the perspective of administering the DI and SSI programs. The SSA definition and medical listings with regard to HIV have evolved from the earliest definitions provided by CDC when the disease was first listed under infectious/parasitic category, to the time when HIV received its own regulatory listing in the Listing of Impairments4 in June 1993.

As the spectrum of manifestations of HIV-infection became better defined, it became apparent that some progressive and seriously disabling conditions were not included in the definition of AIDS. In addition, clinicians began to identify a group of individuals with a variety of signs and symptoms which were thought to be caused by the HIV virus. The collection of these symptoms came to be known as AIDS-Related Complex (ARC). Effective September 1987, the CDC began using a revised criteria for determining which cases involving HIV should be reported for AIDS statistical surveillance purposes. The revision expanded the definition to include HIV Dementia and HIV Wasting. To remain consistent, SSA revised its definition for AIDS, but discontinued the automatic link with the CDC definition. The revised criteria lead to reclassifying as AIDS a number of then-current beneficiaries who were on the disability rolls due to ARC, rather than a definitively diagnosed case of AIDS. During this time, the number of AIDS-related impairments on the DI rolls grew rapidly from 5,700 at the end of 1986 to 17,400 by the end of 1988.

In 1990, SSA issued new guidelines to include criteria for symptomatic HIV which is not AIDS, including all lymphomas and other disease manifestations coupled with 200 CD4 count and marked functional limitations. The expanded guidelines resulted in a new class of HIV impairments, and by 1992, the DI program had experienced its most critical year for new HIV entitlements as an additional 33,000 workers began receiving payments. However, the death rate among those afflicted was so high that monthly benefit payments were often made only for a relatively short period of time, if at all. Many never received payments, failing to survive the requisite 5-month waiting period under the DI program. One-third of those who made it onto the rolls because of HIV impairments had died by the end of the calendar year in which they became entitled; two-thirds had died by the end of the following year.

By 1996, CDC began reporting sharp declines in AIDS incidence as a result of public awareness and widespread use of highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) which slows the reproduction of the virus and thus the progression of HIV infection to AIDS.5 By 1998, CDC reported a leveling of incidence and essentially no change from 1999 to 2001 with roughly 41,000 new AIDS cases reported each year over that period. DI entitlements followed the decline in population incidence as infected workers remained employed for longer periods of time. Since peaking in 1992, the number of workers becoming entitled to DI benefits based on HIV has fallen in recent years to roughly 10,000 annually.

Mortality 1997-2001

As of December 31, 2002, the CDC reported nearly 385,000 persons in the U.S. living with AIDS, and an estimated 41,000 new diagnoses of AIDS infections occurring annually. From the beginning of the epidemic through 2002, CDC estimates that roughly 502,000 persons have died with AIDS in the U.S.6

Social Security records on HIV impairments show that by the end of 2002, there were nearly 98,500 workers receiving DI benefits—with approximately 10,500 becoming newly entitled in that year7—and roughly 72,000 individuals receiving SSI benefits.8 Over the 10-year period covered by this study (1992-2001), approximately 204,100 HIV beneficiaries were terminated from the DI and SSI rolls as a result of death.

Results found in this study reflect DI (worker only) and SSI disability experience. We caution against viewing these results as a proxy for the HIV/AIDS mortality of the population being monitored by CDC. Only a fraction of those diagnosed with the HIV infection or full-blown AIDS actually become eligible for DI or SSI benefits. Many remain in the work force for extended periods of time, delaying, perhaps indefinitely, pursuit of disability benefits. For those who attain beneficiary status—and subsequently come under observation—the infection has progressed to the point of being disabling. Consequently, the make-up of the HIV population that is the basis for this study is quite different from the overall AIDS population tracked by CDC. Furthermore, the primary variable of interest for this mortality study is duration since becoming entitled to disability benefits. The time of initial diagnosis of HIV may not be known, and therefore the amount of time from onset of the infection to death cannot be measured.

As mentioned earlier, the expansion of the guidelines in 1990 more clearly defined the aspects of disability for individuals who had HIV, but had not progressed to the point of having AIDS or showed other severe manifestations of the infection.9 For purposes of this study, HIV infection must be present and would be a contributing factor (if not the primary reason) for a favorable disability determination.

The main section of this study presents HIV mortality experience for the DI and SSI rolls over the period 1997-2001. For comparison, similar actuarial tables are provided in appendix A for 1992-96. Dramatic differences in mortality exist between the two 5-year periods. Among male beneficiaries in early durations, HIV mortality for 1997-2001 ranges from 30-50 percent of HIV mortality for 1992-96. Mortality improvements in later durations are less dramatic, but still significant, ranging from 50-75 percent of the earlier period. A similar comparison for females shows mortality for 1997-2001 is 40-60 percent of the previous period in early durations, and 60-80 percent in later durations.

Much of the decline in mortality experience among DI and SSI recipients appears to be consistent with the wider use of HAART. To a lesser extent, the improvement may also be the result of differences in the composition of the rolls between the two periods. Over the period 1992-96, the number of individuals that appeared on the disability rolls with HIV as the primary reason for impairment was greater than those for whom HIV was the secondary reason by a ratio of 10-to-1. During 1997-2001, this ratio had dropped to less than 7-to-1. Furthermore, the ratio of symptomatic HIV cases to asymptomatic HIV cases10 fell from roughly 6-to-1 in the earlier period, to 4-to-1 in the later period. Data suggest that cases having HIV impairment as the secondary diagnosis rather than the primary diagnosis, or an asymptomatic HIV diagnosis rather than symptomatic HIV diagnosis, exhibit inherently lower mortality. Consequently, a relatively higher concentration of lower-mortality individuals on the rolls contributes to lower overall mortality.

Tables 1A and 1B show select-and-ultimate probabilities of death for male and female HIV disabled beneficiaries, by select age (that is, age at entitlement/eligibility to disability benefits) and duration since selection. Data reflect the combined actual experience of the DI and SSI rolls from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 2001. The probability of death among HIV beneficiaries is generally highest within the first several durations, then typically decreases in later durations. In comparing HIV mortality to general disability mortality, we see several common characteristics found in the overall disability population do not necessarily hold for HIV experience.11 Deviations may be due to uncertainty over the length of time individuals have been infected, and the degree of therapy received. Certain characteristics generally seen in mortality patterns in the overall disability population appear to be less influential in the HIV disability population. These include:

Over the period 1997-2001, male HIV mortality ranges from one-and-a-half to three times that of overall disability mortality for early durations, and up to four times as high for later durations. Female HIV mortality can be three to six times as high as overall disability mortality over the same period. Several unique circumstances were encountered in the data that affect mortality estimates. These include death within the disability waiting period, and cases where HIV is present but is not material to benefit allowance. These and other data considerations are discussed in appendix B.

A survival table is a concise way of representing the probabilities of a particular population living to a particular age. Tables 2A and 2B show the progression of a series of cohorts—each for a given select age—reflecting the probabilities of death shown in tables 1A and 1B. See appendix B for details on table construction and usage.

Tables 3A and 3B show the expected future lifetime of male and female HIV disabled beneficiaries. Females have a higher future lifetime than males. As with general disability mortality, HIV beneficiaries often exhibit a shorter life expectancy in the first several years of entitlement than in later durations. This is due to higher mortality in those years.

Tables 4 and 5 show aggregate probability of death and expected future lifetime, by select and attained ages. Probabilities are exposure-weighted averages of those found in tables 1A and 1B. They represent the average probability of death, within one year, for those originally entitled to disability benefits at a particular select age (table 4), or those entitled to disability benefits who have attained a particular age (table 5). Similarly, aggregate future lifetime represents the life expectancy for those of a particular select or attained age. These values are exposure-weighted averages of the select-and-ultimate future lifetimes shown in tables 3A and 3B.

Table 6 shows aggregate results based on years since selection, or duration. Probabilities are based on aggregate counts of exposure and deaths across all select ages, and represent the average probability of death within the next year of entitlement to disability benefits. Aggregate future lifetime represents the average life expectancy for all those who have been entitled to disability benefits for the stated number of years.

Tables 7A and 7B show select-and-ultimate probabilities of death for HIV disabled beneficiaries by select age and duration. These tables are similar to tables 1A and 1B, however they reflect only the experience of the DI rolls. As such, beneficiaries may be concurrently eligible for DI and SSI benefits, but those eligible for SSI only are not considered.

When comparing tables 1A-1B to tables 7A-7B, we observe that the mortality of the combined DI and SSI rolls is higher than that of the DI rolls in roughly two-thirds of all attained ages; this proportion increases to roughly three-fourths when considering only durations 5 and later. This indicates somewhat higher mortality among those receiving only SSI benefits (whose experience is included in tables 1A-1B, but not in tables 7A-7B) than among DI beneficiaries, particularly for older attained ages. Reasons for higher SSI mortality may be related to the means-tested nature of the SSI program itself. By definition, SSI-only recipients are of lesser economic means and typically uninsured for DI benefits and, hence, ineligible for any Medicare benefits that are available under the DI program. Generally, SSI recipients are categorically eligible for Medicaid. However, prior to SSI eligibility, medical assisitance through Federal or State sponsored programs may not have been available. The lack of medical treatment—both prior to and during eligibility—may contribute to higher mortality rates.

Similar tables for combined experience from January 1, 1992 through December 31, 1996 are presented in appendix A.

Table 1A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Probability of Death
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.072424
0.061970
0.049041
0.044395
0.039615
0.062552
0.050563
0.057413
0.046820
0.039698
0.016877
28
19
0.067844
0.068649
0.060102
0.051266
0.048380
0.064879
0.054528
0.056563
0.050111
0.039005
0.022984
29
                         
20
0.064963
0.073503
0.071242
0.059366
0.055251
0.065836
0.056733
0.056155
0.052490
0.038579
0.028405
30
21
0.066546
0.078799
0.081851
0.067355
0.060825
0.063942
0.057519
0.056165
0.054115
0.040173
0.033340
31
22
0.072324
0.086560
0.089234
0.073580
0.065340
0.063329
0.056180
0.056407
0.057050
0.042813
0.038440
32
23
0.080407
0.091846
0.093061
0.077980
0.068095
0.060679
0.052140
0.058231
0.061400
0.046054
0.043497
33
24
0.088382
0.091723
0.094113
0.079606
0.071543
0.058835
0.048438
0.060613
0.063335
0.048721
0.045157
34
                         
25
0.095077
0.088169
0.091669
0.078076
0.071820
0.060192
0.047746
0.060269
0.060925
0.052236
0.046840
35
26
0.098407
0.084635
0.087606
0.077251
0.068332
0.060435
0.051807
0.058921
0.056224
0.054558
0.050940
36
27
0.099076
0.084135
0.086235
0.077844
0.065436
0.059663
0.056796
0.056627
0.053400
0.054879
0.052618
37
28
0.096614
0.081876
0.085671
0.076535
0.067543
0.061464
0.058762
0.055881
0.052606
0.056308
0.054454
38
29
0.095514
0.080739
0.082391
0.073460
0.065730
0.059894
0.059900
0.054818
0.051790
0.057995
0.053766
39
                         
30
0.098075
0.082003
0.080945
0.070926
0.066397
0.060144
0.058286
0.052993
0.050554
0.057884
0.054635
40
31
0.105141
0.080829
0.079860
0.067207
0.066918
0.060372
0.055105
0.052590
0.052181
0.056308
0.059580
41
32
0.106784
0.081482
0.078830
0.070700
0.066557
0.058501
0.056156
0.051882
0.054628
0.054098
0.060942
42
33
0.102632
0.080881
0.077698
0.071781
0.066740
0.061156
0.061485
0.052391
0.061413
0.052325
0.060479
43
34
0.100541
0.080806
0.079623
0.069893
0.067752
0.066658
0.061722
0.054631
0.063452
0.055974
0.061777
44
                         
35
0.099457
0.079650
0.079024
0.072943
0.072329
0.069893
0.058148
0.057933
0.062774
0.062264
0.064911
45
36
0.101599
0.078694
0.076795
0.072894
0.070951
0.070526
0.061498
0.061874
0.059468
0.069090
0.067332
46
37
0.104829
0.079212
0.077374
0.070885
0.073004
0.066536
0.063171
0.063272
0.061576
0.075098
0.068115
47
38
0.109102
0.083811
0.080687
0.072044
0.070583
0.062784
0.066599
0.065365
0.065264
0.075316
0.068800
48
39
0.113059
0.084416
0.081142
0.071814
0.070783
0.066801
0.069815
0.067368
0.068998
0.073892
0.069489
49
                         
40
0.118663
0.084208
0.083062
0.072838
0.073169
0.070082
0.070110
0.068395
0.070498
0.071233
0.069198
50
41
0.118099
0.082197
0.081002
0.075125
0.073089
0.074186
0.069905
0.069130
0.072888
0.072268
0.070891
51
42
0.114107
0.081139
0.078327
0.074788
0.075417
0.078234
0.069649
0.070990
0.078059
0.075851
0.073921
52
43
0.114507
0.084619
0.079357
0.078941
0.077719
0.076880
0.073473
0.073125
0.079232
0.079797
0.071723
53
44
0.115781
0.086245
0.077773
0.081938
0.080629
0.076451
0.075154
0.075229
0.079684
0.083732
0.068283
54
                         
45
0.118907
0.088921
0.077261
0.081640
0.084272
0.076000
0.074770
0.076949
0.079540
0.086777
0.063994
55
46
0.123508
0.092586
0.078050
0.079662
0.080987
0.074157
0.075519
0.078654
0.079634
0.086510
0.061175
56
47
0.130179
0.094964
0.078655
0.078263
0.075861
0.071391
0.074388
0.077342
0.079527
0.082762
0.061600
57
48
0.133785
0.093103
0.078087
0.077062
0.073338
0.070598
0.071527
0.076444
0.078246
0.079950
0.065649
58
49
0.134264
0.091728
0.076766
0.072519
0.073124
0.068314
0.070221
0.075524
0.078759
0.081462
0.070128
59
                         
50
0.134128
0.090194
0.081422
0.073132
0.075903
0.068483
0.074628
0.077927
0.079951
0.086466
0.072926
60
51
0.136355
0.091824
0.086613
0.079117
0.080415
0.073393
0.081526
0.080458
0.082951
0.091564
0.074809
61
52
0.131513
0.092727
0.091178
0.081191
0.082324
0.081563
0.087694
0.083939
0.084703
0.093596
0.075441
62
53
0.127985
0.089593
0.093635
0.083973
0.084930
0.090748
0.093568
0.087702
0.086421
0.095216
0.078608
63
54
0.123458
0.086888
0.092847
0.084004
0.086900
0.099208
0.095610
0.091650
0.086957
0.095312
0.081749
64
                         
55
0.119988
0.085150
0.090099
0.084302
0.088948
0.103877
0.098470
0.094977
0.086312
0.093314
0.083978
65
56
0.117971
0.085425
0.090823
0.082740
0.087678
0.106907
0.099372
0.094788
0.087054
0.089746
0.085838
66
57
0.118847
0.086343
0.094964
0.081157
0.088624
0.104431
0.098312
0.093651
0.088396
0.087239
0.085478
67
58
0.120873
0.088290
0.099041
0.077703
0.088823
0.099500
0.098529
0.091583
0.089062
0.085175
0.084091
68
59
0.126070
0.092257
0.102476
0.079562
0.088125
0.093112
0.099982
0.088988
0.088200
0.083563
0.083550
69
                         
60
0.134891
0.100136
0.106536
0.088520
0.088327
0.089833
0.102695
0.086674
0.085556
0.082145
0.085288
70
61
0.150343
0.109907
0.110088
0.101728
0.091308
0.090793
0.103014
0.084766
0.082063
0.081182
0.090119
71
62
0.165753
0.122347
0.116606
0.113242
0.099408
0.093314
0.101613
0.082816
0.077225
0.079324
0.098050
72
63
0.180508
0.136352
0.123795
0.122920
0.108350
0.096861
0.098319
0.081047
0.072080
0.077168
0.107429
73
64
0.195326
0.153054
0.128732
0.132037
0.117092
0.101297
0.094211
0.078433
0.066512
0.075118
0.117143
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Table 1B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Probability of Death
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.064609
0.081446
0.107080
0.089289
0.059634
0.059502
0.042750
0.027047
0.016714
0.020978
0.033417
28
19
0.068166
0.081637
0.107334
0.083497
0.060611
0.060633
0.039327
0.029339
0.024983
0.028243
0.036000
29
                         
20
0.070701
0.080610
0.106104
0.081262
0.061100
0.061638
0.038150
0.032900
0.032568
0.034729
0.039513
30
21
0.073713
0.079308
0.103390
0.080575
0.063096
0.060396
0.038811
0.038186
0.037934
0.038994
0.042369
31
22
0.078688
0.078482
0.097684
0.077902
0.066505
0.058778
0.040238
0.043700
0.041459
0.042491
0.043498
32
23
0.084170
0.078733
0.088757
0.073580
0.068291
0.056541
0.041704
0.047512
0.045085
0.044523
0.044505
33
24
0.087715
0.079375
0.081797
0.068049
0.067240
0.055142
0.045743
0.048720
0.049416
0.045018
0.047132
34
                         
25
0.089063
0.083070
0.076883
0.064829
0.065806
0.054546
0.050215
0.050698
0.051643
0.046113
0.049899
35
26
0.090768
0.091103
0.075759
0.065604
0.060624
0.056111
0.051895
0.052628
0.052079
0.048499
0.050658
36
27
0.093297
0.098989
0.077909
0.067627
0.055029
0.058984
0.052883
0.053473
0.052439
0.048166
0.050403
37
28
0.095917
0.102971
0.082297
0.069646
0.052707
0.061202
0.053119
0.053051
0.052075
0.047330
0.047794
38
29
0.097139
0.101274
0.088516
0.068182
0.051588
0.060968
0.051537
0.053394
0.052320
0.050531
0.044905
39
                         
30
0.099584
0.094261
0.088945
0.065757
0.053798
0.059035
0.049459
0.054128
0.052751
0.058151
0.043432
40
31
0.101347
0.088192
0.083976
0.065977
0.057638
0.059843
0.051498
0.055630
0.053794
0.064226
0.042132
41
32
0.099489
0.084070
0.080952
0.068760
0.061200
0.059402
0.054064
0.055611
0.056040
0.065629
0.042781
42
33
0.099569
0.080858
0.081193
0.071465
0.064705
0.059065
0.055694
0.055544
0.059571
0.066668
0.045161
43
34
0.098859
0.080301
0.079025
0.070948
0.066658
0.061882
0.056224
0.056015
0.062403
0.066524
0.047116
44
                         
35
0.091966
0.082907
0.077817
0.072690
0.069538
0.066213
0.059598
0.058221
0.064705
0.064758
0.051432
45
36
0.090119
0.081516
0.076310
0.077584
0.072764
0.068850
0.061571
0.063993
0.063974
0.064026
0.056913
46
37
0.091585
0.079324
0.075935
0.080498
0.075101
0.069946
0.063272
0.064830
0.060298
0.063702
0.062123
47
38
0.088529
0.081264
0.075748
0.081292
0.074179
0.071191
0.065125
0.061153
0.059719
0.060195
0.064443
48
39
0.087623
0.084262
0.076614
0.081697
0.071131
0.071696
0.062474
0.059553
0.063029
0.056903
0.061597
49
                         
40
0.090619
0.086234
0.074260
0.080456
0.071694
0.070133
0.063961
0.060622
0.066119
0.055102
0.055380
50
41
0.095149
0.087459
0.075799
0.077798
0.074393
0.067571
0.068106
0.065431
0.068019
0.056343
0.052187
51
42
0.101415
0.088470
0.074959
0.074104
0.077246
0.067779
0.070510
0.070491
0.066918
0.059821
0.048584
52
43
0.102957
0.088830
0.073037
0.069707
0.079133
0.066853
0.071424
0.072149
0.064378
0.063602
0.045681
53
44
0.100592
0.089584
0.072975
0.068015
0.080071
0.066438
0.072174
0.072503
0.064175
0.065726
0.045348
54
                         
45
0.095224
0.089570
0.072805
0.069323
0.078760
0.066862
0.075563
0.071739
0.066457
0.066811
0.046353
55
46
0.091817
0.091718
0.076051
0.071288
0.075088
0.066578
0.075915
0.070091
0.070012
0.068198
0.047691
56
47
0.090380
0.091443
0.077692
0.070759
0.071480
0.065435
0.070494
0.067149
0.072545
0.068478
0.047835
57
48
0.092084
0.088144
0.075904
0.068640
0.069463
0.065347
0.064955
0.063106
0.073622
0.067603
0.045480
58
49
0.095573
0.083207
0.074178
0.067002
0.070458
0.066865
0.061957
0.060610
0.074166
0.067653
0.042944
59
                         
50
0.101397
0.077982
0.070709
0.065399
0.072019
0.066741
0.061108
0.058583
0.074452
0.068742
0.039603
60
51
0.106524
0.075767
0.067611
0.066051
0.072598
0.066673
0.063299
0.059057
0.075402
0.071040
0.042245
61
52
0.108083
0.075267
0.066383
0.069576
0.071943
0.068205
0.067772
0.061808
0.076529
0.073511
0.043739
62
53
0.105394
0.077580
0.067336
0.073762
0.070900
0.072421
0.073737
0.065454
0.076328
0.073577
0.047825
63
54
0.102870
0.078956
0.070270
0.077181
0.070693
0.077537
0.077921
0.067845
0.074594
0.071855
0.049742
64
                         
55
0.099982
0.080290
0.074172
0.077992
0.072202
0.080911
0.078285
0.068858
0.071920
0.069471
0.053064
65
56
0.097731
0.079866
0.075072
0.077885
0.075026
0.081826
0.075780
0.069017
0.068537
0.066147
0.055033
66
57
0.096656
0.078204
0.073298
0.075399
0.079482
0.082226
0.071928
0.068437
0.065599
0.062524
0.058884
67
58
0.095804
0.073421
0.069982
0.072067
0.083763
0.082068
0.067703
0.066781
0.063122
0.058698
0.062342
68
59
0.093509
0.068118
0.067241
0.068046
0.084218
0.079799
0.063335
0.064588
0.060739
0.055098
0.065093
69
                         
60
0.089805
0.063518
0.066461
0.064342
0.081768
0.073737
0.058867
0.061245
0.057822
0.056326
0.067155
70
61
0.104964
0.062520
0.066200
0.062518
0.075597
0.065210
0.055004
0.057530
0.059659
0.062082
0.071765
71
62
0.110186
0.068013
0.066576
0.061814
0.067271
0.056756
0.056501
0.057736
0.064411
0.067667
0.077636
72
63
0.132043
0.080614
0.068587
0.061663
0.062279
0.060154
0.063760
0.069208
0.069545
0.072625
0.080153
73
64
0.156291
0.088404
0.071025
0.065189
0.064846
0.068735
0.073385
0.072524
0.072859
0.084538
0.085617
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional graduation method.

Table 2A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Survival Table
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
100,000
92,758
87,010
82,743
79,070
75,938
71,188
67,589
63,709
60,726
58,315
28
19
102,206
95,272
88,732
83,399
79,123
75,295
70,410
66,571
62,806
59,659
57,331
29
                         
20
103,400
96,683
89,577
83,195
78,256
73,932
69,065
65,147
61,489
58,261
56,013
30
21
104,099
97,172
89,515
82,188
76,652
71,990
67,387
63,511
59,944
56,700
54,422
31
22
104,559
96,997
88,601
80,695
74,757
69,872
65,447
61,770
58,286
54,961
52,608
32
23
103,533
95,208
86,464
78,418
72,303
67,380
63,291
59,991
56,498
53,029
50,586
33
24
100,702
91,802
83,382
75,535
69,522
64,548
60,750
57,807
54,303
50,864
48,386
34
                         
25
96,241
87,091
79,412
72,132
66,500
61,724
58,009
55,239
51,910
48,747
46,201
35
26
90,935
81,986
75,047
68,472
63,182
58,865
55,307
52,442
49,352
46,577
44,037
36
27
85,925
77,412
70,899
64,785
59,742
55,833
52,502
49,520
46,716
44,221
41,794
37
28
81,316
73,460
67,445
61,667
56,947
53,101
49,837
46,908
44,287
41,957
39,595
38
29
75,974
68,717
63,169
57,964
53,706
50,176
47,171
44,345
41,914
39,743
37,439
39
                         
30
71,589
64,568
59,273
54,475
50,611
47,251
44,409
41,821
39,605
37,603
35,426
40
31
67,575
60,470
55,582
51,143
47,706
44,514
41,827
39,522
37,444
35,490
33,491
41
32
63,767
56,958
52,317
48,193
44,786
41,805
39,359
37,149
35,222
33,298
31,496
42
33
60,435
54,232
49,846
45,973
42,673
39,825
37,389
35,090
33,252
31,210
29,577
43
34
57,537
51,752
47,570
43,782
40,722
37,963
35,432
33,245
31,429
29,435
27,788
44
                         
35
54,756
49,310
45,382
41,796
38,747
35,944
33,432
31,488
29,664
27,802
26,071
45
36
51,696
46,444
42,789
39,503
36,623
34,025
31,625
29,680
27,844
26,188
24,379
46
37
48,826
43,708
40,246
37,132
34,500
31,981
29,853
27,967
26,197
24,584
22,738
47
38
46,330
41,275
37,816
34,765
32,260
29,983
28,101
26,230
24,515
22,915
21,189
48
39
43,923
38,957
35,668
32,774
30,420
28,267
26,379
24,537
22,884
21,305
19,731
49
                         
40
41,512
36,586
33,505
30,722
28,484
26,400
24,550
22,829
21,268
19,769
18,360
50
41
38,872
34,281
31,463
28,914
26,742
24,787
22,948
21,344
19,868
18,420
17,090
51
42
36,447
32,288
29,668
27,344
25,299
23,391
21,561
20,059
18,635
17,180
15,878
52
43
34,533
30,579
27,991
25,770
23,736
21,891
20,208
18,723
17,354
15,979
14,704
53
44
32,583
28,811
26,326
24,279
22,290
20,493
18,926
17,504
16,187
14,897
13,649
54
                         
45
30,777
27,117
24,706
22,797
20,936
19,172
17,715
16,390
15,129
13,926
12,717
55
46
28,947
25,372
23,023
21,226
19,535
17,953
16,622
15,367
14,158
13,031
11,903
56
47
27,014
23,497
21,266
19,593
18,060
16,690
15,498
14,345
13,236
12,183
11,175
57
48
25,051
21,700
19,680
18,143
16,745
15,517
14,422
13,390
12,366
11,398
10,487
58
49
23,170
20,059
18,219
16,820
15,600
14,459
13,471
12,525
11,579
10,667
9,799
59
                         
50
22,007
19,055
17,336
15,924
14,759
13,639
12,705
11,757
10,841
9,974
9,112
60
51
21,356
18,444
16,750
15,299
14,089
12,956
12,005
11,026
10,139
9,298
8,447
61
52
20,325
17,652
16,015
14,555
13,373
12,272
11,271
10,283
9,420
8,622
7,815
62
53
19,274
16,807
15,301
13,868
12,703
11,624
10,569
9,580
8,740
7,985
7,225
63
54
17,934
15,720
14,354
13,021
11,927
10,891
9,811
8,873
8,060
7,359
6,657
64
                         
55
16,514
14,533
13,296
12,098
11,078
10,093
9,045
8,154
7,380
6,743
6,113
65
56
15,080
13,301
12,165
11,060
10,145
9,256
8,266
7,445
6,739
6,152
5,600
66
57
13,776
12,139
11,091
10,038
9,223
8,406
7,528
6,788
6,152
5,608
5,119
67
58
12,552
11,035
10,061
9,065
8,361
7,618
6,860
6,184
5,618
5,118
4,681
68
59
11,545
10,090
9,159
8,220
7,566
6,899
6,257
5,631
5,130
4,678
4,287
69
                         
60
10,858
9,393
8,452
7,552
6,883
6,275
5,711
5,125
4,681
4,281
3,929
70
61
10,392
8,830
7,860
6,995
6,283
5,709
5,191
4,656
4,261
3,911
3,594
71
62
9,974
8,321
7,303
6,451
5,720
5,151
4,670
4,195
3,848
3,551
3,270
72
63
9,489
7,776
6,716
5,885
5,162
4,603
4,157
3,748
3,444
3,196
2,949
73
64
8,931
7,187
6,087
5,303
4,603
4,064
3,652
3,308
3,049
2,846
2,632
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value l[x] at duration 0 represents the assumed number of lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x]; the value l[x]+t at duration
t > 0 represents the number of lives remaining from the original l[x] who have attained age [x]+t. Lives are decremented using probabilities from table 1A.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table 2B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Survival Table
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
100,000
93,539
85,921
76,721
69,871
65,704
61,794
59,152
57,552
56,590
55,403
28
19
98,108
91,420
83,957
74,946
68,688
64,525
60,613
58,229
56,521
55,109
53,552
29
                         
20
96,135
89,338
82,136
73,421
67,455
63,333
59,429
57,162
55,281
53,481
51,624
30
21
93,733
86,824
79,938
71,673
65,898
61,740
58,011
55,760
53,631
51,597
49,584
31
22
90,819
83,673
77,106
69,574
64,154
59,887
56,367
54,099
51,735
49,590
47,483
32
23
87,104
79,772
73,491
66,968
62,040
57,803
54,535
52,261
49,778
47,534
45,418
33
24
83,142
75,849
69,828
64,116
59,753
55,735
52,662
50,253
47,805
45,443
43,397
34
                         
25
79,606
72,516
66,492
61,380
57,401
53,624
50,699
48,153
45,712
43,351
41,352
35
26
76,638
69,682
63,334
58,536
54,696
51,380
48,497
45,980
43,560
41,291
39,289
36
27
73,861
66,970
60,341
55,640
51,877
49,022
46,130
43,691
41,355
39,186
37,299
37
28
71,036
64,222
57,609
52,868
49,186
46,594
43,742
41,418
39,221
37,179
35,419
38
29
68,018
61,411
55,192
50,307
46,877
44,459
41,748
39,596
37,482
35,521
33,726
39
                         
30
64,977
58,506
52,991
48,278
45,103
42,677
40,158
38,172
36,106
34,201
32,212
40
31
62,549
56,210
51,253
46,949
43,851
41,324
38,851
36,850
34,800
32,928
30,813
41
32
60,094
54,115
49,566
45,554
42,422
39,826
37,460
35,435
33,464
31,589
29,515
42
33
58,080
52,297
48,068
44,165
41,009
38,356
36,091
34,081
32,188
30,271
28,252
43
34
55,719
50,211
46,179
42,530
39,513
36,879
34,597
32,652
30,823
28,900
26,976
44
                         
35
53,626
48,694
44,657
41,182
38,188
35,532
33,179
31,202
29,385
27,484
25,705
45
36
51,539
46,894
43,071
39,784
36,697
34,027
31,684
29,733
27,830
26,050
24,383
46
37
48,806
44,336
40,819
37,719
34,683
32,078
29,834
27,946
26,134
24,558
22,995
47
38
45,475
41,449
38,081
35,196
32,335
29,936
27,805
25,994
24,404
22,947
21,566
48
39
42,391
38,677
35,418
32,704
30,032
27,896
25,896
24,278
22,832
21,393
20,176
49
                         
40
39,963
36,342
33,208
30,742
28,269
26,242
24,402
22,841
21,456
20,037
18,933
50
41
38,442
34,784
31,742
29,336
27,054
25,041
23,349
21,759
20,335
18,952
17,884
51
42
37,060
33,302
30,356
28,081
26,000
23,992
22,366
20,789
19,324
18,031
16,951
52
43
35,274
31,642
28,831
26,725
24,862
22,895
21,364
19,838
18,407
17,222
16,127
53
44
33,666
30,279
27,566
25,554
23,816
21,909
20,453
18,977
17,601
16,471
15,390
54
                         
45
32,163
29,100
26,494
24,565
22,862
21,061
19,653
18,168
16,865
15,744
14,692
55
46
30,790
27,963
25,398
23,466
21,793
20,157
18,815
17,387
16,168
15,036
14,011
56
47
28,979
26,360
23,950
22,089
20,526
19,059
17,812
16,556
15,444
14,324
13,343
57
48
27,094
24,599
22,431
20,728
19,305
17,964
16,790
15,699
14,708
13,625
12,705
58
49
25,663
23,210
21,279
19,701
18,381
17,086
15,944
14,956
14,050
13,008
12,127
59
                         
50
24,445
21,966
20,253
18,821
17,590
16,323
15,234
14,303
13,465
12,463
11,606
60
51
23,655
21,135
19,534
18,213
17,010
15,775
14,723
13,791
12,977
11,999
11,146
61
52
23,025
20,536
18,990
17,729
16,495
15,308
14,264
13,297
12,475
11,520
10,675
62
53
22,431
20,067
18,510
17,264
15,991
14,857
13,781
12,765
11,929
11,018
10,208
63
54
21,664
19,435
17,900
16,642
15,358
14,272
13,165
12,139
11,315
10,471
9,720
64
                         
55
20,684
18,616
17,121
15,851
14,615
13,560
12,463
11,487
10,696
9,927
9,237
65
56
19,434
17,535
16,135
14,924
13,762
12,729
11,687
10,801
10,056
9,367
8,747
66
57
18,107
16,357
15,078
13,973
12,919
11,892
10,914
10,129
9,436
8,817
8,266
67
58
16,673
15,076
13,969
12,991
12,055
11,045
10,139
9,453
8,822
8,265
7,779
68
59
15,158
13,741
12,805
11,944
11,131
10,194
9,381
8,787
8,219
7,720
7,294
69
                         
60
13,709
12,478
11,685
10,908
10,206
9,371
8,680
8,169
7,669
7,226
6,819
70
61
12,758
11,419
10,705
9,996
9,371
8,663
8,098
7,653
7,213
6,783
6,361
71
62
11,918
10,605
9,884
9,226
8,656
8,074
7,616
7,186
6,771
6,335
5,905
72
63
11,785
10,229
9,404
8,759
8,219
7,707
7,243
6,781
6,312
5,873
5,447
73
64
11,808
9,963
9,082
8,437
7,887
7,376
6,869
6,365
5,903
5,473
5,010
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value l[x] at duration 0 represents the assumed number of lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x]; the value l[x]+t at duration
t > 0 represents the number of lives remaining from the original l[x] who have attained age [x]+t. Lives are decremented using probabilities from table 1B.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table 3A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Expected Future Lifetime
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
18.20
18.58
18.77
18.72
18.56
18.31
18.50
18.45
18.55
18.43
18.18
28
19
17.25
17.47
17.72
17.82
17.76
17.64
17.82
17.82
17.86
17.78
17.48
29
                         
20
16.45
16.56
16.83
17.08
17.13
17.10
17.27
17.28
17.28
17.21
16.88
30
21
15.70
15.79
16.09
16.48
16.64
16.68
16.79
16.78
16.75
16.68
16.36
31
22
14.98
15.11
15.50
15.97
16.20
16.29
16.36
16.31
16.25
16.20
15.91
32
23
14.44
14.66
15.09
15.58
15.86
15.98
15.98
15.83
15.78
15.78
15.52
33
24
14.09
14.41
14.81
15.30
15.58
15.74
15.69
15.46
15.43
15.44
15.20
34
                         
25
13.93
14.34
14.68
15.11
15.34
15.49
15.45
15.20
15.14
15.09
14.90
35
26
13.88
14.34
14.62
14.97
15.18
15.26
15.21
15.01
14.92
14.78
14.61
36
27
13.80
14.26
14.53
14.85
15.06
15.08
15.01
14.88
14.74
14.55
14.36
37
28
13.72
14.13
14.35
14.65
14.82
14.86
14.80
14.69
14.53
14.31
14.13
38
29
13.75
14.15
14.35
14.59
14.71
14.71
14.62
14.51
14.33
14.08
13.92
39
                         
30
13.66
14.09
14.30
14.52
14.59
14.59
14.49
14.36
14.13
13.86
13.68
40
31
13.53
14.06
14.26
14.45
14.46
14.46
14.35
14.16
13.92
13.66
13.44
41
32
13.40
13.94
14.13
14.30
14.35
14.34
14.20
14.01
13.75
13.52
13.26
42
33
13.27
13.73
13.89
14.02
14.06
14.03
13.91
13.79
13.53
13.38
13.09
43
34
13.08
13.48
13.63
13.76
13.76
13.72
13.67
13.53
13.29
13.15
12.90
44
                         
35
12.89
13.25
13.36
13.46
13.48
13.49
13.47
13.27
13.05
12.90
12.72
45
36
12.75
13.13
13.21
13.27
13.28
13.25
13.22
13.05
12.88
12.66
12.57
46
37
12.59
13.01
13.08
13.14
13.10
13.09
12.99
12.83
12.67
12.47
12.44
47
38
12.36
12.81
12.93
13.02
13.00
12.95
12.78
12.66
12.51
12.34
12.31
48
39
12.14
12.63
12.75
12.83
12.78
12.72
12.59
12.50
12.37
12.25
12.18
49
                         
40
11.93
12.47
12.57
12.67
12.62
12.58
12.49
12.39
12.27
12.16
12.05
50
41
11.84
12.36
12.42
12.48
12.45
12.39
12.34
12.23
12.10
12.02
11.91
51
42
11.76
12.21
12.25
12.25
12.20
12.15
12.14
12.01
11.89
11.85
11.78
52
43
11.54
11.97
12.03
12.03
12.02
11.99
11.94
11.85
11.75
11.71
11.69
53
44
11.37
11.79
11.86
11.82
11.83
11.82
11.76
11.67
11.58
11.54
11.55
54
                         
45
11.18
11.62
11.71
11.65
11.64
11.66
11.58
11.47
11.39
11.33
11.36
55
46
11.02
11.50
11.62
11.56
11.52
11.49
11.37
11.26
11.17
11.10
11.10
56
47
10.89
11.44
11.59
11.54
11.47
11.37
11.21
11.07
10.96
10.86
10.79
57
48
10.81
11.41
11.53
11.46
11.38
11.24
11.05
10.87
10.72
10.59
10.47
58
49
10.77
11.36
11.46
11.37
11.22
11.07
10.84
10.62
10.45
10.30
10.17
59
                         
50
10.53
11.08
11.13
11.08
10.91
10.77
10.52
10.33
10.16
10.00
9.90
60
51
10.13
10.65
10.68
10.64
10.51
10.39
10.17
10.03
9.86
9.71
9.64
61
52
9.88
10.30
10.30
10.29
10.15
10.02
9.86
9.76
9.61
9.45
9.38
62
53
9.66
10.00
9.94
9.92
9.78
9.64
9.55
9.49
9.35
9.19
9.10
63
54
9.54
9.82
9.70
9.64
9.48
9.34
9.31
9.24
9.12
8.94
8.83
64
                         
55
9.46
9.68
9.53
9.43
9.25
9.10
9.10
9.04
8.93
8.73
8.58
65
56
9.38
9.57
9.41
9.30
9.10
8.92
8.93
8.86
8.74
8.53
8.32
66
57
9.26
9.45
9.29
9.21
8.98
8.81
8.78
8.68
8.53
8.31
8.05
67
58
9.15
9.34
9.19
9.15
8.88
8.70
8.60
8.49
8.29
8.05
7.76
68
59
8.95
9.17
9.05
9.03
8.77
8.57
8.40
8.27
8.03
7.76
7.42
69
                         
60
8.61
8.87
8.80
8.79
8.60
8.39
8.16
8.04
7.76
7.43
7.06
70
61
8.15
8.50
8.48
8.47
8.38
8.17
7.93
7.79
7.46
7.09
6.67
71
62
7.66
8.08
8.13
8.14
8.12
7.96
7.73
7.55
7.18
6.74
6.28
72
63
7.20
7.68
7.81
7.84
7.87
7.76
7.54
7.31
6.91
6.41
5.91
73
64
6.77
7.30
7.53
7.56
7.64
7.59
7.39
7.10
6.66
6.10
5.56
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value e[x]+t at duration t represents the average number of years of life remaining for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t. Values are based on survivorship experience from table 2A.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table 3B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Expected Future Lifetime
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
17.82
18.02
18.57
19.74
20.62
20.90
21.19
21.12
20.69
20.03
19.45
28
19
17.46
17.70
18.23
19.36
20.08
20.34
20.62
20.45
20.05
19.55
19.11
29
                         
20
17.12
17.38
17.86
18.92
19.55
19.79
20.06
19.83
19.49
19.13
18.80
30
21
16.82
17.12
17.55
18.52
19.10
19.35
19.56
19.33
19.08
18.81
18.55
31
22
16.59
16.96
17.37
18.19
18.69
18.98
19.14
18.92
18.76
18.55
18.35
32
23
16.48
16.95
17.35
17.99
18.38
18.70
18.79
18.58
18.48
18.33
18.16
33
24
16.42
16.95
17.37
17.87
18.14
18.41
18.46
18.32
18.23
18.15
17.99
34
                         
25
16.30
16.85
17.33
17.73
17.93
18.16
18.17
18.11
18.05
18.00
17.85
35
26
16.09
16.64
17.26
17.63
17.84
17.95
17.99
17.95
17.92
17.88
17.76
36
27
15.83
16.41
17.16
17.56
17.80
17.81
17.89
17.87
17.85
17.81
17.68
37
28
15.60
16.21
17.01
17.49
17.76
17.72
17.85
17.82
17.79
17.74
17.59
38
29
15.47
16.08
16.83
17.42
17.66
17.59
17.70
17.64
17.60
17.55
17.45
39
                         
30
15.40
16.04
16.66
17.24
17.42
17.38
17.44
17.32
17.28
17.22
17.25
40
31
15.25
15.91
16.40
16.86
17.02
17.03
17.08
16.98
16.95
16.89
17.01
41
32
15.11
15.73
16.13
16.50
16.68
16.74
16.76
16.69
16.65
16.60
16.74
42
33
14.89
15.48
15.80
16.15
16.36
16.45
16.45
16.39
16.33
16.33
16.46
43
34
14.74
15.30
15.59
15.88
16.06
16.17
16.20
16.14
16.07
16.10
16.22
44
                         
35
14.55
14.97
15.28
15.53
15.71
15.84
15.93
15.91
15.86
15.93
15.99
45
36
14.35
14.73
14.99
15.19
15.42
15.59
15.71
15.71
15.75
15.79
15.83
46
37
14.27
14.66
14.88
15.06
15.33
15.54
15.67
15.69
15.75
15.73
15.76
47
38
14.33
14.68
14.93
15.11
15.41
15.60
15.76
15.82
15.82
15.79
15.77
48
39
14.38
14.71
15.02
15.23
15.54
15.69
15.86
15.89
15.86
15.89
15.82
49
                         
40
14.33
14.71
15.05
15.22
15.50
15.66
15.81
15.85
15.84
15.93
15.83
50
41
14.09
14.52
14.87
15.05
15.27
15.46
15.54
15.64
15.70
15.81
15.73
51
42
13.85
14.35
14.70
14.85
14.99
15.21
15.28
15.40
15.53
15.60
15.57
52
43
13.74
14.26
14.61
14.72
14.78
15.01
15.05
15.17
15.31
15.33
15.34
53
44
13.63
14.09
14.43
14.53
14.55
14.78
14.79
14.90
15.03
15.03
15.05
54
                         
45
13.51
13.88
14.19
14.27
14.29
14.47
14.48
14.62
14.71
14.72
14.74
55
46
13.34
13.64
13.97
14.07
14.12
14.22
14.20
14.33
14.37
14.41
14.43
56
47
13.31
13.59
13.90
14.03
14.06
14.11
14.06
14.09
14.06
14.13
14.13
57
48
13.33
13.63
13.90
14.00
14.00
14.01
13.95
13.89
13.79
13.85
13.81
58
49
13.23
13.58
13.76
13.83
13.78
13.79
13.74
13.62
13.46
13.50
13.45
59
                         
50
13.08
13.49
13.59
13.59
13.51
13.52
13.45
13.29
13.09
13.10
13.03
60
51
12.78
13.25
13.29
13.22
13.12
13.11
13.01
12.85
12.63
12.62
12.54
61
52
12.44
12.88
12.89
12.77
12.69
12.64
12.53
12.40
12.18
12.15
12.08
62
53
12.08
12.44
12.45
12.31
12.25
12.15
12.06
11.98
11.78
11.72
11.61
63
54
11.77
12.06
12.05
11.92
11.88
11.74
11.69
11.63
11.44
11.33
11.16
64
                         
55
11.52
11.75
11.73
11.63
11.57
11.43
11.39
11.32
11.12
10.94
10.72
65
56
11.38
11.56
11.52
11.41
11.33
11.21
11.16
11.04
10.82
10.58
10.29
66
57
11.28
11.43
11.36
11.22
11.09
11.01
10.95
10.76
10.51
10.21
9.86
67
58
11.25
11.39
11.25
11.06
10.88
10.83
10.75
10.49
10.21
9.86
9.45
68
59
11.29
11.40
11.20
10.97
10.73
10.67
10.56
10.24
9.91
9.52
9.04
69
                         
60
11.35
11.42
11.16
10.92
10.63
10.54
10.34
9.95
9.57
9.12
8.64
70
61
11.11
11.36
11.08
10.83
10.52
10.34
10.03
9.58
9.13
8.68
8.22
71
62
10.86
11.14
10.92
10.66
10.33
10.04
9.62
9.16
8.69
8.26
7.82
72
63
10.15
10.62
10.51
10.25
9.89
9.51
9.09
8.67
8.28
7.86
7.44
73
64
9.40
10.05
9.98
9.70
9.35
8.96
8.58
8.22
7.83
7.40
7.04
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value e[x]+t at duration t represents the average number of years of life remaining for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t. Values are based on survivorship experience from table 2B.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table 4.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Select Age
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
Age
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
18
0.048213
17.12
0.055448
19.37
19
0.053457
16.61
0.057076
19.00
         
20
0.056447
16.24
0.059288
18.66
21
0.060002
15.96
0.062546
18.25
22
0.062310
15.62
0.064290
18.03
23
0.066437
15.27
0.063651
17.86
24
0.068602
15.03
0.063608
17.74
         
25
0.068671
14.86
0.064028
17.56
26
0.068678
14.71
0.064905
17.43
27
0.069004
14.60
0.066358
17.31
28
0.069585
14.44
0.068699
17.18
29
0.068864
14.36
0.067714
17.09
         
30
0.068898
14.25
0.068263
16.86
31
0.069573
14.14
0.069162
16.56
32
0.070649
14.00
0.069513
16.27
33
0.071699
13.76
0.070385
15.99
34
0.073041
13.51
0.071809
15.72
         
35
0.074187
13.26
0.072620
15.44
36
0.074849
13.08
0.074137
15.18
37
0.075537
12.93
0.074859
15.11
38
0.077468
12.77
0.074888
15.15
39
0.079462
12.58
0.075147
15.20
         
40
0.081264
12.42
0.075497
15.18
41
0.081757
12.27
0.077117
14.96
42
0.082009
12.09
0.079028
14.72
43
0.084189
11.89
0.078911
14.56
44
0.085845
11.71
0.079275
14.33
         
45
0.086970
11.53
0.078163
14.09
46
0.088387
11.38
0.079196
13.86
47
0.088709
11.29
0.077546
13.78
48
0.088403
11.19
0.076457
13.71
49
0.087850
11.06
0.076051
13.52
         
50
0.089456
10.78
0.075020
13.34
51
0.093348
10.39
0.075239
12.93
52
0.094668
10.06
0.077450
12.54
53
0.096841
9.74
0.077892
12.10
54
0.096438
9.53
0.079865
11.77
         
55
0.095830
9.33
0.080235
11.46
56
0.095485
9.21
0.078557
11.08
57
0.097109
9.07
0.078631
10.91
58
0.096584
8.96
0.076039
10.57
59
0.098881
8.76
0.074986
10.71
         
60
0.103327
8.54
0.072366
10.55
61
0.110067
8.16
0.072077
10.27
62
0.120178
7.82
0.072019
10.08
63
0.131716
7.43
0.079247
9.51
64
0.136950
7.22
0.104357
9.01

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits.
2. Probability of death at select age [x] represents the average probability of dying within one year for those originally entitled to disability benefits at that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all durations from tables 1A and 1B.
3. Future lifetime at select age [x] represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits at that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all durations from tables 3A and 3B.

Table 5.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Attained Age
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Attained Age
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
18
0.072424
18.20
0.064609
17.82
19
0.065225
17.84
0.073461
17.68
         
20
0.062027
17.29
0.083118
17.66
21
0.064024
16.75
0.084933
17.71
22
0.067217
16.33
0.082379
17.74
23
0.075035
15.86
0.081905
17.75
24
0.080115
15.46
0.079503
17.80
         
25
0.082972
15.28
0.076135
17.80
26
0.083132
15.13
0.073728
17.72
27
0.081708
15.02
0.073386
17.55
28
0.079202
14.92
0.073907
17.38
29
0.077348
14.81
0.074084
17.27
         
30
0.076674
14.69
0.074314
17.15
31
0.076677
14.57
0.074278
17.03
32
0.075851
14.47
0.072680
16.93
33
0.074393
14.37
0.070594
16.81
34
0.072669
14.23
0.070003
16.62
         
35
0.072307
14.07
0.068819
16.42
36
0.072383
13.89
0.068934
16.20
37
0.071316
13.71
0.069013
15.97
38
0.072337
13.50
0.068528
15.79
39
0.074946
13.29
0.069863
15.61
         
40
0.075837
13.10
0.071790
15.48
41
0.076130
12.94
0.073437
15.37
42
0.075154
12.79
0.074297
15.28
43
0.075049
12.61
0.074795
15.22
44
0.076570
12.42
0.074560
15.13
         
45
0.078055
12.24
0.072875
15.05
46
0.080618
12.06
0.072180
14.93
47
0.082665
11.92
0.073006
14.79
48
0.083607
11.79
0.074307
14.68
49
0.084261
11.67
0.074913
14.55
         
50
0.084513
11.54
0.074023
14.42
51
0.083733
11.37
0.073002
14.26
52
0.083281
11.18
0.071623
14.05
53
0.083813
10.93
0.069624
13.83
54
0.084122
10.66
0.070105
13.49
         
55
0.084070
10.40
0.069954
13.16
56
0.084093
10.15
0.069923
12.86
57
0.085751
9.90
0.070304
12.56
58
0.088392
9.66
0.070815
12.26
59
0.091486
9.45
0.071038
12.00
         
60
0.095506
9.23
0.069360
11.80
61
0.098184
9.03
0.069570
11.56
62
0.100652
8.82
0.069780
11.31
63
0.102997
8.60
0.070852
11.06
64
0.102286
8.44
0.069905
10.81
         
65
0.098855
8.31
0.065096
10.57
66
0.097156
8.15
0.061199
10.27
67
0.095087
7.97
0.059035
9.91
68
0.090852
7.75
0.060025
9.50
69
0.086811
7.48
0.062709
9.08
         
70
0.083694
7.14
0.066641
8.65
71
0.085045
6.75
0.071091
8.23
72
0.093143
6.32
0.077004
7.83
73
0.105225
5.92
0.080230
7.44
74
0.117143
5.56
0.085617
7.04

Notes:
1. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration.
2. Probability of death at attained age x represents the average probability of dying within one year for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have attained that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all durations from tables 1A and 1B.
3. Future lifetime at attained age x represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have attained that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all durations from tables 3A and 3B.

Table 6.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Duration
(1997-2001 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Duration
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
0
0.112445
12.04
0.094868
14.38
1
0.084512
12.60
0.085712
14.91
2
0.081327
12.81
0.078481
15.34
3
0.074517
13.00
0.072532
15.71
4
0.072186
13.11
0.067305
16.02
         
5
0.068041
13.19
0.063969
16.25
6
0.064653
13.21
0.057920
16.40
7
0.062874
13.18
0.057519
16.42
8
0.063826
13.10
0.058041
16.40
9
0.064739
13.02
0.057854
16.35
         
10
0.060845
12.97
0.049217
16.25
11
0.061610
12.84
0.049763
15.94
12
0.062328
12.72
0.050449
15.60
13
0.063071
12.58
0.051117
15.27
14
0.063998
12.43
0.051803
15.05
         
15
0.064381
12.39
0.052070
14.87
16
0.065032
12.29
0.052459
14.89
17
0.065496
12.24
0.053277
14.83
0.065447
12.28
0.053006
14.99
19
0.065376
12.32
0.052955
15.09
         
20
0.065435
12.30
0.052193
15.14
21
0.065964
12.20
0.051484
15.14
22
0.066981
12.14
0.052420
15.00
23
0.069219
11.97
0.053779
15.10
24
0.069744
11.83
0.054038
14.90
         
25
0.071001
11.63
0.054178
14.84
26
0.072043
11.43
0.054665
14.65
27
0.073566
11.21
0.055154
14.52
28
0.074011
10.80
0.049796
13.67
29
0.076903
10.63
0.047408
13.78
         
30
0.078583
10.76
0.048019
12.55
31
0.083898
10.42
0.052971
11.82
32
0.080229
9.89
0.057703
10.08
33
0.076840
9.38
0.055033
10.29
34
0.078741
9.11
0.058884
9.86
         
35
0.079633
8.89
0.062342
9.45
36
0.082223
8.71
0.065093
9.04

Notes:
1. Duration measured in years since selection.
2. Probability of death at duration t represents the average probability of dying during the (t+1) year of entitlement to disability benefits. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all ages from tables 1A and 1B.
3. Future lifetime at duration t represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have not died after t years. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all ages from tables 3A and 3B.

Table 7A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries (DI Program Only)
Probability of Death
(1997-2001 Social Security DI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.068271
0.071075
0.046439
0.029412
0.021024
0.029781
0.045714
0.028605
0.028486
0.019149
0.005990
28
19
0.072613
0.076703
0.054723
0.042308
0.034184
0.039730
0.049102
0.034919
0.034457
0.024881
0.015978
29
                         
20
0.076358
0.081758
0.062735
0.054713
0.047208
0.049457
0.050678
0.041374
0.040497
0.030322
0.025934
30
21
0.080790
0.087020
0.071357
0.065016
0.059188
0.057638
0.050290
0.047546
0.048328
0.035729
0.035443
31
22
0.086500
0.092314
0.078834
0.071646
0.068716
0.062943
0.048187
0.051738
0.056902
0.041117
0.043747
32
23
0.091888
0.094522
0.085696
0.075760
0.074314
0.062271
0.045300
0.054890
0.064132
0.047813
0.050496
33
24
0.095336
0.091201
0.091606
0.076777
0.076608
0.059477
0.044074
0.056275
0.066809
0.054160
0.052817
34
                         
25
0.099734
0.085267
0.094376
0.074363
0.074167
0.059381
0.045207
0.055863
0.065155
0.058851
0.051809
35
26
0.103845
0.082785
0.091703
0.072815
0.067820
0.061082
0.050772
0.056444
0.060343
0.059862
0.051919
36
27
0.105822
0.082750
0.087872
0.073719
0.065738
0.059783
0.056730
0.056968
0.055292
0.058890
0.050627
37
28
0.103697
0.081121
0.083602
0.074351
0.068152
0.060026
0.060117
0.056866
0.050930
0.058976
0.050368
38
29
0.101986
0.081013
0.079786
0.072729
0.067760
0.058740
0.061300
0.054836
0.047806
0.059390
0.051937
39
                         
30
0.102714
0.082020
0.079011
0.069217
0.067656
0.058412
0.060068
0.052156
0.046410
0.059923
0.055621
40
31
0.107434
0.081299
0.077870
0.066696
0.066711
0.059669
0.056658
0.053413
0.048591
0.058965
0.060522
41
32
0.111109
0.080473
0.077164
0.069272
0.064168
0.058583
0.057472
0.053076
0.052962
0.056112
0.063219
42
33
0.111433
0.077329
0.076830
0.069016
0.062268
0.061113
0.061106
0.052541
0.061074
0.053178
0.062743
43
34
0.110225
0.076132
0.076952
0.067577
0.063516
0.065985
0.061291
0.053912
0.062405
0.052431
0.063519
44
                         
35
0.107466
0.077638
0.074457
0.070840
0.069373
0.068671
0.059251
0.056333
0.060415
0.055772
0.063124
45
36
0.105250
0.078832
0.073683
0.071628
0.069991
0.068221
0.060908
0.059259
0.057525
0.061765
0.063685
46
37
0.107908
0.079135
0.073020
0.070080
0.072453
0.064897
0.061453
0.060769
0.059021
0.068391
0.066194
47
38
0.116426
0.082358
0.073913
0.071808
0.069669
0.061037
0.066221
0.061877
0.059989
0.070215
0.067565
48
39
0.120005
0.083720
0.077749
0.071820
0.068704
0.062718
0.069077
0.062188
0.062844
0.068176
0.067852
49
                         
40
0.122672
0.083799
0.080498
0.072782
0.071178
0.064970
0.067165
0.060844
0.067199
0.066506
0.067549
50
41
0.118538
0.081781
0.077710
0.072892
0.070706
0.068931
0.065299
0.061667
0.072837
0.068632
0.064954
51
42
0.112346
0.079150
0.075264
0.071844
0.071470
0.070957
0.066148
0.061954
0.078047
0.071417
0.062696
52
43
0.114542
0.080987
0.075481
0.076007
0.072265
0.071115
0.070863
0.064901
0.079832
0.073563
0.061027
53
44
0.119511
0.083911
0.075815
0.078965
0.072659
0.071885
0.072610
0.068076
0.078755
0.076278
0.060028
54
                         
45
0.128916
0.087518
0.077165
0.082293
0.074672
0.070915
0.070921
0.071338
0.076384
0.078061
0.057412
55
46
0.137705
0.092144
0.078727
0.081917
0.071291
0.069102
0.068912
0.075204
0.073441
0.077849
0.055952
56
47
0.144601
0.098745
0.077234
0.077542
0.068164
0.066059
0.066926
0.075633
0.072650
0.074871
0.056191
57
48
0.145673
0.098522
0.075689
0.072783
0.069805
0.065749
0.067089
0.075351
0.070579
0.071853
0.057672
58
49
0.145932
0.097284
0.074819
0.069509
0.072749
0.066217
0.068520
0.075341
0.067776
0.072004
0.059171
59
                         
50
0.143177
0.093773
0.077319
0.072269
0.075188
0.068065
0.075386
0.077963
0.065532
0.074391
0.061165
60
51
0.142787
0.092109
0.079363
0.079858
0.077515
0.073270
0.083526
0.080815
0.065386
0.076604
0.062912
61
52
0.137683
0.090771
0.084425
0.083864
0.078278
0.080126
0.090433
0.083472
0.067406
0.077628
0.063657
62
53
0.134517
0.087967
0.090606
0.087073
0.081050
0.086846
0.095260
0.085530
0.072182
0.079629
0.065987
63
54
0.130404
0.087929
0.094037
0.086553
0.084496
0.091527
0.095260
0.086324
0.077373
0.082140
0.069607
64
                         
55
0.127343
0.088175
0.094007
0.085587
0.087801
0.093550
0.095260
0.087634
0.080850
0.083294
0.073900
65
56
0.126627
0.090142
0.096386
0.081968
0.088668
0.094270
0.093634
0.087709
0.083861
0.083704
0.079536
66
57
0.129975
0.091870
0.098831
0.080933
0.091015
0.090825
0.090835
0.088015
0.086304
0.084658
0.084836
67
58
0.135055
0.092981
0.098627
0.079559
0.091449
0.086795
0.090031
0.087518
0.087786
0.085975
0.088400
68
59
0.140298
0.096991
0.097709
0.082699
0.090561
0.083310
0.091755
0.086217
0.087477
0.086790
0.090455
69
                         
60
0.147956
0.104275
0.098053
0.090995
0.089676
0.083715
0.095311
0.085510
0.085321
0.086723
0.092485
70
61
0.160613
0.113792
0.101031
0.101483
0.090884
0.087959
0.096860
0.084778
0.082473
0.086381
0.096529
71
62
0.171302
0.124292
0.108780
0.109707
0.095864
0.093188
0.097541
0.083337
0.079066
0.085544
0.102877
72
63
0.182391
0.135917
0.119078
0.116821
0.101385
0.098016
0.097136
0.081609
0.075900
0.084410
0.110060
73
64
0.194901
0.149854
0.128624
0.124210
0.106701
0.102466
0.095654
0.079406
0.072407
0.083387
0.118244
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program. Probabilities reflect experience of the DI rolls only. Beneficiaries may be concurrently entitled to DI and SSI benefits, but those entitled to SSI only are not considered.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Table 7B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries (DI Program Only)
Probability of Death
(1997-2001 Social Security DI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.068820
0.107034
0.120594
0.115396
0.089705
0.051520
0.022305
0.016877
0.031300
0.042220
0.043192
28
19
0.073888
0.104300
0.117035
0.108615
0.087115
0.054024
0.025793
0.018461
0.033848
0.041903
0.040511
29
                         
20
0.078742
0.100573
0.112637
0.101986
0.083942
0.056229
0.029305
0.020151
0.036042
0.041168
0.037764
30
21
0.084531
0.095467
0.106115
0.095089
0.081348
0.057313
0.032779
0.022269
0.037078
0.039267
0.034677
31
22
0.091998
0.090693
0.098794
0.087842
0.078998
0.057752
0.036366
0.025002
0.036882
0.037667
0.032520
32
23
0.098870
0.087715
0.090645
0.080512
0.074476
0.057140
0.039775
0.028184
0.036592
0.036794
0.031820
33
24
0.104976
0.087978
0.084087
0.072504
0.067922
0.056493
0.044245
0.031728
0.036392
0.037203
0.033247
34
                         
25
0.110985
0.093041
0.083574
0.064928
0.061811
0.055906
0.049258
0.035902
0.036321
0.039011
0.035958
35
26
0.115924
0.100127
0.086403
0.060116
0.054887
0.055780
0.052532
0.039746
0.036992
0.041804
0.038044
36
27
0.118640
0.104697
0.088278
0.059270
0.049798
0.058205
0.054408
0.043864
0.039167
0.043900
0.038834
37
28
0.119398
0.106605
0.086497
0.061059
0.045978
0.061743
0.054221
0.047392
0.042623
0.045162
0.039722
38
29
0.118222
0.106528
0.084599
0.062889
0.043470
0.061329
0.051393
0.049915
0.045720
0.047713
0.040297
39
                         
30
0.115270
0.102682
0.083558
0.062804
0.045631
0.058627
0.048103
0.050286
0.047950
0.051289
0.038780
40
31
0.112118
0.096646
0.082462
0.062010
0.050671
0.056054
0.045594
0.048890
0.049557
0.054043
0.034018
41
32
0.109548
0.089918
0.082355
0.061706
0.055282
0.053713
0.044472
0.046948
0.051812
0.053974
0.029865
42
33
0.109739
0.085884
0.081867
0.061484
0.057530
0.052125
0.045419
0.045824
0.055056
0.052689
0.028608
43
34
0.109139
0.084174
0.079815
0.061583
0.056684
0.052446
0.048558
0.045796
0.058341
0.049613
0.028188
44
                         
35
0.103676
0.083553
0.077268
0.062778
0.056766
0.054775
0.053598
0.047681
0.059970
0.046825
0.029073
45
36
0.100576
0.080217
0.074543
0.064679
0.059507
0.057446
0.056165
0.050719
0.059897
0.046267
0.031635
46
37
0.100081
0.079529
0.073548
0.067941
0.064689
0.061317
0.057294
0.051583
0.059465
0.046146
0.033706
47
38
0.099652
0.082367
0.074461
0.071335
0.068971
0.065093
0.057004
0.051423
0.058710
0.043935
0.034667
48
39
0.099752
0.086759
0.074334
0.072375
0.070766
0.066561
0.055398
0.052212
0.057026
0.041873
0.034854
49
                         
40
0.101624
0.090156
0.071364
0.070541
0.070287
0.063665
0.054408
0.052373
0.054547
0.041760
0.034849
50
41
0.104728
0.090821
0.067480
0.066843
0.068601
0.058683
0.054529
0.053568
0.052069
0.043611
0.034954
51
42
0.110179
0.088468
0.062845
0.062807
0.066061
0.056986
0.056070
0.055845
0.049689
0.047035
0.034329
52
43
0.112708
0.085576
0.061073
0.059285
0.066133
0.057391
0.057742
0.055737
0.048533
0.051350
0.032298
53
44
0.113599
0.085366
0.063020
0.058274
0.068668
0.060746
0.058591
0.055141
0.049776
0.054596
0.030624
54
                         
45
0.112129
0.085671
0.066075
0.057618
0.070023
0.064318
0.059538
0.054918
0.052862
0.055876
0.029267
55
46
0.111026
0.087934
0.071538
0.055583
0.067114
0.064880
0.057119
0.054243
0.056498
0.056960
0.028804
56
47
0.112039
0.090448
0.075242
0.053438
0.063946
0.062627
0.052181
0.052575
0.060227
0.058317
0.028847
57
48
0.114402
0.092894
0.075840
0.053318
0.061549
0.058617
0.047743
0.051073
0.062989
0.059731
0.029021
58
49
0.118098
0.092780
0.075127
0.053709
0.060473
0.053755
0.044718
0.050875
0.065145
0.061859
0.029406
59
                         
50
0.120558
0.091501
0.071205
0.053351
0.059577
0.048706
0.044192
0.051816
0.067498
0.064309
0.031117
60
51
0.120875
0.090637
0.066690
0.054131
0.058472
0.046285
0.046338
0.054124
0.069836
0.067047
0.033193
61
52
0.117804
0.089063
0.064464
0.056979
0.058938
0.048035
0.051100
0.057226
0.071931
0.068323
0.034366
62
53
0.111171
0.087590
0.066420
0.061575
0.061094
0.053330
0.058134
0.060902
0.072562
0.066129
0.037577
63
54
0.104896
0.084301
0.071634
0.066921
0.065085
0.061023
0.064687
0.064592
0.071788
0.062874
0.039083
64
                         
55
0.097611
0.081516
0.076248
0.071502
0.070621
0.069484
0.068671
0.067693
0.070164
0.059619
0.041693
65
56
0.092511
0.079022
0.077399
0.074830
0.076374
0.077336
0.070835
0.069836
0.068012
0.057231
0.043240
66
57
0.091052
0.077729
0.075574
0.074700
0.082037
0.083444
0.071854
0.070447
0.065604
0.055796
0.046266
67
58
0.090294
0.074640
0.072105
0.072614
0.086047
0.086903
0.071769
0.068688
0.062979
0.054262
0.048983
68
59
0.094415
0.070566
0.068738
0.069138
0.086674
0.087161
0.070306
0.065281
0.060246
0.052761
0.051145
69
                         
60
0.093709
0.065270
0.065319
0.065621
0.084543
0.083751
0.067049
0.060884
0.056921
0.051519
0.052765
70
61
0.109528
0.065238
0.061384
0.063262
0.079945
0.077560
0.062728
0.056209
0.054688
0.056909
0.056387
71
62
0.114977
0.070970
0.057983
0.062082
0.074284
0.070639
0.057504
0.055330
0.059044
0.062028
0.060999
72
63
0.137784
0.084119
0.065740
0.061945
0.067917
0.063862
0.061103
0.066324
0.063749
0.066573
0.062977
73
64
0.163086
0.092248
0.074113
0.061630
0.061527
0.065871
0.070327
0.069503
0.066788
0.077493
0.067271
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program. Probabilities reflect experience of the DI rolls only. Beneficiaries may be concurrently entitled to DI and SSI benefits, but those entitled to SSI only are not considered.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Appendix A

HIV Experience 1992-96

Mortality 1992-1996

This appendix presents HIV mortality experience for the DI and SSI rolls over the period 1992-96. CDC tracking shows that AIDS incidence in the general population peaked in 1993, due in part to the expansion of the AIDS surveillance case defintion.12 The estimated number of deaths among persons with AIDS increased steadily through 1994, and then began to decline. Since the use of HAART became widespread during 1996, trends in AIDS incidence have become less reflective of underlying trends in HIV transmission. Beginning in 1996, a substantial increase in AIDS prevalence in the general population occured as a result of declines in AIDS deaths. AIDS incidence and deaths leveled off while AIDS prevalence continued to increase from 1998 through the period covered by the June 2001 CDC report.

The tables that follow are similar to those in the main section of this study, but show mortality experience for the preceding 5-year period. Mortality for DI and SSI beneficiaries with HIV was substantially higher during 1992-96 than during 1997-2001. As mentioned previously, much of the difference appears to coincide with the advent of HAART in 1996, as well as increased use of prophylactic drugs to prevent secondary AIDS-opportunistic illnesses. As discussed in the main section, differences in the composition of the rolls may also have played a part in the mortality improvements seen in the later period.

These factors had a significant impact on HIV disability with respect to new entitlements and deaths, which in turn had a significant impact on exposure of the DI and SSI rolls. Over the period 1992-96, there were roughly 143,000 new HIV beneficiaries, compared to 59,000 over the period 1997-2001.13 In addition, during 1992-96, approximately 145,700 HIV beneficiaries were terminated from the DI and SSI rolls as a result of death, compared to 58,400 during 1997-2001. Although the rolls experienced a significant decline in entitlements, the number of life-years of exposure actually increased by 18 percent between the two 5-year periods. This is due to significant mortality improvements as beneficiaries remain on the rolls for a longer period of time.

The improvements in mortality between the two observation periods is substantial for both male and female beneficiaries. Male deaths decreased by 64 percent, while exposure increased by 12 percent. Female deaths decreased by 35 percent, while exposure increased by 38 percent. The sizable increase in exposure among females is reflective of patterns seen in the overall AIDS population monitored by CDC. According to CDC reports, women accounted for an increasing proportion of persons living with AIDS from 1992 through 199914. In 1999, 25 percent of adults and adolescents reported as having AIDS were women. Furthermore, AIDS as a leading cause of death among women aged 25-44 had dropped from fourth in 1993 to fifth in 1999.15 As discussed, mortality improvements increase the exposure of the disability rolls by lengthening the stay of beneficiaries.

Differences in AIDS incidence and death rates between males and females may be due in part to different methods of transmission, timeliness of diagnosis, and access to treatment. CDC reports indicate that about 25 percent of women with AIDS are infected through injection drug use while 75 percent are infected through heterosexual contact16. Drug use is also a factor in many of the cases attributed to heterosexual contact. Many women may have been unaware that they were at risk for HIV infection and may have remained undiagnosed until the onset of AIDS or until a perinatally infected child became ill.

Tables A.1A and A.1B show select-and-ultimate probabilities of death for male and female HIV disabled beneficiaries, by select age and duration since selection. Data reflect the combined actual experience of the DI and SSI rolls from January 1, 1992 through December 31, 1996. The methods used in table construction and graduation are the same as that used for 1997-2001. See appendix B for details.

For any given select age, the highest probability of death occurs within the first several durations. For males, at most select ages, mortality levels off around the third duration, then generally decreases thereafter; mortality may trend upward at the extreme older attained ages. For females, death probabilities may level off around the third duration and then continue to decrease gradually before slightly increasing when the beneficiaries reach their late fifties or early sixties. For those entering the rolls at higher ages, death probabilities do not show this slight increase until the later durations. As mentioned previously, trends in the data are not always predictable since it cannot be known with certainty how long individuals have been infected.

Tables A.2A and A.2B are survival tables showing the progression of a series of cohorts—each for a given select age—reflecting the probabilities of death shown in tables A.1A and A.1B.

Tables A.3A and A.3B show the expected future lifetime of male and female HIV disabled beneficiaries. Females display a higher future lifetime than males. Expected lifetimes for females may be nearly twice as long at early durations, diminishing to roughly 25-35 percent longer at later durations. As with general disability mortality, HIV beneficiaries often exhibit a shorter life expectancy in the first several years of entitlement than in later durations. This is due to higher mortality in those years.

Tables A.4 and A.5 show the aggregate probability of death and expected future lifetime, by select and attained ages. Table A.6 presents aggregated results based on duration.

Tables A.7A and A.7B show select-and-ultimate probabilities of death for HIV disabled workers by select age and duration. These tables are similar to tables A.1A and A.1B, with the exception that only the experience of the DI rolls is reflected.

Table A.1A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Probability of Death
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.076854
0.087708
0.089206
0.061027
0.055461
0.087573
0.070788
0.080378
0.065548
0.059547
0.026175
28
19
0.088874
0.111011
0.105061
0.079145
0.067732
0.090831
0.076339
0.079188
0.070155
0.058508
0.035386
29
                         
20
0.104281
0.133725
0.120939
0.095781
0.077351
0.092170
0.079426
0.078617
0.073486
0.057869
0.044016
30
21
0.127002
0.156426
0.138630
0.112881
0.090422
0.089519
0.080527
0.078631
0.075761
0.060260
0.051570
31
22
0.149153
0.179238
0.164257
0.129726
0.101194
0.088661
0.078652
0.078970
0.079870
0.064220
0.056535
32
23
0.169807
0.203900
0.187145
0.146936
0.112418
0.095086
0.081696
0.091566
0.085960
0.061022
0.059417
33
24
0.191459
0.222371
0.208194
0.161924
0.124441
0.107506
0.088324
0.099555
0.088669
0.067597
0.062410
34
                         
25
0.211794
0.237443
0.223288
0.174746
0.135778
0.116840
0.095417
0.102310
0.085295
0.073380
0.064590
35
26
0.223894
0.248470
0.231472
0.186327
0.141372
0.124218
0.105238
0.102703
0.084406
0.079017
0.066222
36
27
0.234227
0.253022
0.240856
0.192747
0.147224
0.129855
0.114649
0.102039
0.092021
0.082970
0.068403
37
28
0.247396
0.266549
0.241721
0.196555
0.153409
0.134009
0.118944
0.103979
0.096997
0.084305
0.070790
38
29
0.255681
0.272477
0.246727
0.199476
0.158608
0.140066
0.115353
0.107825
0.101039
0.084618
0.069896
39
                         
30
0.262582
0.273916
0.245352
0.202317
0.162491
0.143509
0.112252
0.113671
0.102428
0.084143
0.071026
40
31
0.262492
0.273752
0.249462
0.203200
0.170781
0.144953
0.114585
0.117337
0.101961
0.085396
0.077454
41
32
0.272588
0.277835
0.252508
0.208816
0.174610
0.143782
0.121687
0.121073
0.099009
0.087663
0.079225
42
33
0.277280
0.277223
0.249079
0.209383
0.174784
0.145165
0.129459
0.123251
0.096419
0.089548
0.078623
43
34
0.278042
0.273672
0.250438
0.206304
0.179656
0.143489
0.132242
0.123669
0.095400
0.089701
0.080310
44
                         
35
0.276746
0.270405
0.251872
0.204776
0.178754
0.143763
0.127044
0.123753
0.096958
0.091050
0.084384
45
36
0.279568
0.267104
0.245948
0.201826
0.176243
0.149285
0.125747
0.118037
0.097954
0.093478
0.087532
46
37
0.284982
0.272810
0.242287
0.204325
0.172484
0.156178
0.125975
0.110450
0.095949
0.095096
0.088550
47
38
0.290236
0.274323
0.242698
0.203122
0.166164
0.157617
0.127009
0.104626
0.094064
0.095632
0.089440
48
39
0.290438
0.276575
0.238931
0.203952
0.163713
0.151476
0.131751
0.104720
0.093154
0.094968
0.090336
49
                         
40
0.298357
0.273055
0.240921
0.200075
0.164327
0.154070
0.139893
0.107317
0.093673
0.094886
0.089957
50
41
0.298605
0.275193
0.243805
0.195507
0.168595
0.157377
0.144743
0.112590
0.097034
0.096361
0.092158
51
42
0.299178
0.283952
0.244801
0.196684
0.165885
0.160740
0.145978
0.118866
0.101779
0.098606
0.096097
52
43
0.305512
0.285130
0.246607
0.201174
0.165428
0.160052
0.148671
0.123840
0.104544
0.103736
0.093240
53
44
0.310086
0.282741
0.251835
0.206170
0.170031
0.158247
0.150182
0.127483
0.105013
0.108852
0.097761
54
                         
45
0.312000
0.285120
0.256819
0.205690
0.170441
0.157813
0.147055
0.128224
0.103943
0.112810
0.101354
55
46
0.319068
0.286988
0.263322
0.207687
0.169840
0.155792
0.142093
0.126635
0.103524
0.112463
0.103919
56
47
0.325155
0.289302
0.260181
0.214868
0.169018
0.156155
0.137459
0.122303
0.103385
0.107591
0.104140
57
48
0.326830
0.293370
0.261429
0.219118
0.166567
0.156682
0.131716
0.117504
0.101720
0.103935
0.102500
58
49
0.333441
0.297094
0.265384
0.221851
0.167153
0.155407
0.126173
0.113150
0.102387
0.105901
0.100921
59
                         
50
0.329299
0.302086
0.270121
0.225542
0.170018
0.153895
0.122926
0.111385
0.103936
0.112406
0.097517
60
51
0.331425
0.306147
0.271023
0.228113
0.174460
0.153080
0.122289
0.112641
0.107836
0.119033
0.097252
61
52
0.344114
0.308002
0.267129
0.223546
0.176198
0.154484
0.131541
0.117515
0.110114
0.121675
0.098073
62
53
0.354920
0.308057
0.264875
0.216804
0.175384
0.155285
0.140352
0.122783
0.112347
0.123781
0.102190
63
54
0.362036
0.300859
0.260001
0.213344
0.175294
0.154543
0.143415
0.128310
0.113044
0.123906
0.106274
64
                         
55
0.361238
0.291687
0.256044
0.213911
0.179922
0.154113
0.147705
0.132968
0.112206
0.121308
0.109171
65
56
0.360717
0.294804
0.256608
0.220779
0.188223
0.152456
0.149058
0.132703
0.113170
0.116670
0.111589
66
57
0.353863
0.307232
0.260317
0.226115
0.196934
0.152235
0.147468
0.131111
0.114915
0.113411
0.111121
67
58
0.353248
0.318283
0.262259
0.226929
0.202298
0.154343
0.147794
0.128216
0.115781
0.110728
0.109318
68
59
0.353820
0.323809
0.266328
0.228780
0.204966
0.157499
0.149973
0.124583
0.114660
0.108632
0.108615
69
                         
60
0.349970
0.320039
0.269343
0.230568
0.201874
0.161626
0.154043
0.130011
0.128334
0.123218
0.110874
70
61
0.354594
0.316883
0.274645
0.227097
0.195777
0.165443
0.154521
0.127149
0.123095
0.121773
0.117155
71
62
0.368210
0.316184
0.276578
0.222405
0.189674
0.168565
0.152420
0.124224
0.115838
0.118986
0.127465
72
63
0.391356
0.313595
0.276680
0.220313
0.186713
0.170875
0.147479
0.121571
0.108120
0.115752
0.139658
73
64
0.419454
0.309333
0.277131
0.221166
0.186149
0.172704
0.141317
0.117650
0.099768
0.112677
0.152286
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Table A.1B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Probability of Death
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.082751
0.090393
0.117788
0.098218
0.065597
0.065452
0.045193
0.034998
0.018385
0.026223
0.046784
28
19
0.089243
0.105132
0.118067
0.092748
0.066672
0.066696
0.052358
0.036714
0.027481
0.035304
0.050400
29
                         
20
0.098294
0.118578
0.118043
0.097977
0.074024
0.067802
0.058924
0.039017
0.035825
0.043411
0.055318
30
21
0.111335
0.131341
0.125088
0.103524
0.083800
0.074263
0.065104
0.042747
0.041727
0.048743
0.059317
31
22
0.123013
0.140365
0.132720
0.109097
0.093601
0.083003
0.070635
0.048154
0.047655
0.053114
0.060897
32
23
0.126575
0.148496
0.141063
0.115915
0.098078
0.088565
0.076078
0.054844
0.052638
0.055654
0.062307
33
24
0.128312
0.157740
0.149383
0.121854
0.100595
0.092605
0.081094
0.061663
0.055808
0.056273
0.065985
34
                         
25
0.132162
0.162174
0.156305
0.126988
0.103041
0.096996
0.084308
0.067053
0.064554
0.057641
0.069859
35
26
0.137090
0.165702
0.160990
0.133272
0.107301
0.102375
0.085222
0.069111
0.065099
0.060624
0.070921
36
27
0.145245
0.170511
0.164451
0.136959
0.113191
0.108179
0.083463
0.069932
0.065549
0.060208
0.070564
37
28
0.151915
0.171312
0.162917
0.140622
0.119096
0.112411
0.084716
0.070034
0.065094
0.059163
0.066912
38
29
0.152792
0.175627
0.163873
0.140549
0.124344
0.114882
0.088502
0.071043
0.065400
0.063164
0.062867
39
                         
30
0.154899
0.181945
0.164005
0.142868
0.129427
0.113452
0.092949
0.071484
0.065939
0.072689
0.060805
40
31
0.157998
0.184538
0.163815
0.140379
0.130037
0.110838
0.097701
0.071726
0.067243
0.080283
0.058985
41
32
0.164967
0.190119
0.164138
0.138620
0.127601
0.109060
0.099037
0.071392
0.070050
0.082036
0.059893
42
33
0.168997
0.191401
0.166015
0.138382
0.122873
0.108207
0.097777
0.069680
0.074464
0.083335
0.063225
43
34
0.168555
0.190670
0.171529
0.141274
0.119465
0.107679
0.095336
0.070019
0.078004
0.083155
0.065962
44
                         
35
0.168210
0.189396
0.173929
0.146263
0.120162
0.108654
0.090670
0.072776
0.080881
0.080948
0.072005
45
36
0.173444
0.190212
0.171327
0.147692
0.127014
0.111075
0.088184
0.079991
0.079968
0.080033
0.079678
46
37
0.176340
0.191209
0.167844
0.151378
0.132665
0.112277
0.087326
0.081038
0.075373
0.079628
0.086972
47
38
0.175712
0.193409
0.166625
0.151050
0.132877
0.110974
0.088334
0.076441
0.074649
0.075244
0.090220
48
39
0.175740
0.193738
0.166777
0.150547
0.130857
0.105290
0.089679
0.074441
0.078786
0.071129
0.086236
49
                         
40
0.176873
0.188901
0.168144
0.148431
0.125001
0.099432
0.089324
0.075778
0.082649
0.068878
0.077532
50
41
0.185870
0.187432
0.170996
0.147632
0.120090
0.097194
0.086040
0.081789
0.085024
0.070429
0.073062
51
42
0.192439
0.196984
0.175562
0.151154
0.116876
0.096593
0.088138
0.088114
0.083648
0.074776
0.068018
52
43
0.195503
0.204968
0.178768
0.153929
0.114936
0.093009
0.089280
0.090186
0.080473
0.079503
0.068522
53
44
0.204370
0.204143
0.179737
0.156918
0.113734
0.089748
0.090218
0.090629
0.080219
0.082158
0.068022
54
                         
45
0.205202
0.198512
0.181910
0.159289
0.114914
0.087391
0.094454
0.089674
0.083071
0.083514
0.069530
55
46
0.205582
0.196627
0.182222
0.159655
0.116075
0.088879
0.094894
0.087614
0.087515
0.085248
0.071537
56
47
0.202576
0.193398
0.179979
0.156761
0.118945
0.092890
0.088118
0.083936
0.090681
0.085598
0.071753
57
48
0.198225
0.192478
0.174098
0.151553
0.122715
0.097134
0.083270
0.078883
0.092028
0.084504
0.068220
58
49
0.195191
0.192046
0.169453
0.144998
0.123607
0.099625
0.083251
0.075763
0.092708
0.084566
0.064416
59
                         
50
0.197542
0.192152
0.165844
0.138417
0.123535
0.098844
0.081780
0.073229
0.093065
0.085928
0.059405
60
51
0.207099
0.193087
0.163666
0.133214
0.124143
0.096480
0.079281
0.073821
0.094253
0.088800
0.063368
61
52
0.222774
0.194415
0.162494
0.129738
0.123786
0.094349
0.084715
0.077260
0.095661
0.091889
0.065608
62
53
0.237979
0.195479
0.161793
0.128942
0.118795
0.090668
0.092171
0.081818
0.095410
0.091971
0.071738
63
54
0.250212
0.196691
0.162003
0.128235
0.110664
0.096921
0.097401
0.084806
0.093243
0.089819
0.074613
64
                         
55
0.255247
0.197078
0.162178
0.126770
0.100734
0.101139
0.097856
0.086073
0.089900
0.086839
0.074290
65
56
0.250240
0.198349
0.161736
0.125276
0.092908
0.102283
0.094725
0.086271
0.085671
0.082684
0.077046
66
57
0.241707
0.201069
0.159419
0.123671
0.089008
0.102783
0.089910
0.085546
0.081999
0.078155
0.082438
67
58
0.232849
0.200560
0.157506
0.122520
0.088587
0.102585
0.084629
0.083476
0.078903
0.073373
0.087279
68
59
0.226566
0.198295
0.157165
0.122872
0.090956
0.099749
0.079169
0.080735
0.075924
0.068873
0.091130
69
                         
60
0.224293
0.194705
0.157559
0.124162
0.094045
0.092171
0.073584
0.076556
0.072278
0.070407
0.094017
70
61
0.230104
0.192230
0.156676
0.125955
0.097062
0.081513
0.069730
0.070811
0.074574
0.077603
0.100472
71
62
0.241761
0.191976
0.155476
0.129517
0.099037
0.075218
0.075583
0.082784
0.081088
0.084584
0.108690
72
63
0.258972
0.195656
0.153301
0.134114
0.100313
0.079535
0.081329
0.094976
0.095894
0.090782
0.112214
73
64
0.278613
0.201569
0.152154
0.138303
0.101768
0.083767
0.087253
0.106816
0.110500
0.105672
0.119864
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Table A.2A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Survival Table
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or more
18
100,000
92,315
84,218
76,705
72,024
68,029
62,072
57,678
53,042
49,565
46,614
28
19
107,756
98,179
87,280
78,110
71,928
67,056
60,965
56,311
51,852
48,214
45,394
29
                         
20
114,481
102,543
88,830
78,087
70,608
65,146
59,141
54,444
50,164
46,478
43,788
30
21
122,075
106,571
89,901
77,438
68,697
62,485
56,891
52,310
48,197
44,546
41,861
31
22
130,601
111,121
91,204
76,223
66,335
59,622
54,336
50,062
46,109
42,426
39,702
32
23
142,127
117,993
93,934
76,355
65,136
57,814
52,317
48,043
43,644
39,892
37,457
33
24
154,910
125,251
97,399
77,121
64,633
56,590
50,506
46,045
41,461
37,785
35,231
34
                         
25
163,212
128,645
98,099
76,195
62,880
54,342
47,993
43,414
38,972
35,648
33,032
35
26
166,400
129,144
97,056
74,590
60,692
52,112
45,639
40,836
36,642
33,549
30,898
36
27
167,562
128,314
95,848
72,762
58,737
50,090
43,586
38,589
34,651
31,462
28,852
37
28
167,003
125,687
92,185
69,902
56,162
47,546
41,174
36,277
32,505
29,352
26,878
38
29
162,759
121,145
88,136
66,390
53,147
44,717
38,454
34,018
30,350
27,283
24,975
39
                         
30
155,332
114,545
83,169
62,763
50,065
41,930
35,913
31,882
28,258
25,364
23,229
40
31
148,023
109,168
79,283
59,505
47,414
39,317
33,618
29,766
26,273
23,594
21,579
41
32
142,891
103,941
75,063
56,109
44,393
36,642
31,374
27,556
24,220
21,822
19,908
42
33
133,448
96,446
69,709
52,346
41,386
34,152
29,194
25,415
22,283
20,134
18,331
43
34
123,051
88,838
64,526
48,366
38,388
31,491
26,972
23,405
20,511
18,554
16,890
44
                         
35
112,076
81,059
59,140
44,244
35,184
28,895
24,741
21,598
18,925
17,090
15,534
45
36
101,293
72,975
53,483
40,329
32,190
26,517
22,558
19,721
17,393
15,689
14,223
46
37
93,215
66,650
48,467
36,724
29,220
24,180
20,404
17,834
15,864
14,342
12,978
47
38
84,602
60,047
43,575
32,999
26,296
21,927
18,471
16,125
14,438
13,080
11,829
48
39
76,505
54,285
39,271
29,888
23,792
19,897
16,883
14,659
13,124
11,901
10,771
49
                         
40
71,052
49,853
36,240
27,509
22,005
18,389
15,556
13,380
11,944
10,825
9,798
50
41
66,458
46,613
33,785
25,548
20,553
17,088
14,399
12,315
10,928
9,868
8,917
51
42
62,343
43,691
31,285
23,626
18,979
15,831
13,286
11,347
9,998
8,980
8,095
52
43
58,357
40,528
28,972
21,827
17,436
14,552
12,223
10,406
9,117
8,164
7,317
53
44
54,643
37,699
27,040
20,230
16,059
13,328
11,219
9,534
8,319
7,445
6,635
54
                         
45
49,923
34,347
24,554
18,248
14,495
12,024
10,126
8,637
7,530
6,747
5,986
55
46
45,431
30,935
22,057
16,249
12,874
10,687
9,022
7,740
6,760
6,060
5,379
56
47
40,732
27,488
19,536
14,453
11,348
9,430
7,957
6,863
6,024
5,401
4,820
57
48
36,308
24,441
17,271
12,756
9,961
8,302
7,001
6,079
5,365
4,819
4,318
58
49
33,071
22,044
15,495
11,383
8,858
7,377
6,231
5,445
4,829
4,335
3,875
59
                         
50
30,248
20,287
14,159
10,334
8,003
6,642
5,620
4,929
4,380
3,925
3,484
60
51
28,142
18,815
13,055
9,517
7,346
6,064
5,136
4,508
4,000
3,569
3,144
61
52
26,336
17,273
11,953
8,760
6,802
5,604
4,738
4,115
3,631
3,231
2,838
62
53
24,383
15,729
10,884
8,001
6,266
5,167
4,365
3,752
3,291
2,921
2,560
63
54
21,877
13,957
9,758
7,221
5,680
4,684
3,960
3,392
2,957
2,623
2,298
64
                         
55
19,412
12,400
8,783
6,534
5,136
4,212
3,563
3,037
2,633
2,338
2,054
65
56
17,617
11,262
7,942
5,904
4,601
3,735
3,166
2,694
2,336
2,072
1,830
66
57
16,035
10,361
7,178
5,309
4,109
3,300
2,798
2,385
2,072
1,834
1,626
67
58
14,582
9,431
6,429
4,743
3,667
2,925
2,474
2,108
1,838
1,625
1,445
68
59
13,234
8,552
5,783
4,243
3,272
2,601
2,191
1,862
1,630
1,443
1,287
69
                         
60
12,264
7,972
5,421
3,961
3,048
2,433
2,040
1,726
1,502
1,309
1,147
70
61
10,818
6,982
4,770
3,460
2,674
2,150
1,794
1,517
1,324
1,161
1,020
71
62
9,517
6,013
4,112
2,975
2,313
1,874
1,558
1,321
1,157
1,023
901
72
63
8,377
5,099
3,500
2,532
1,974
1,605
1,331
1,135
997
889
786
73
64
7,349
4,266
2,946
2,130
1,659
1,350
1,117
959
846
762
676
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value l[x] at duration 0 represents the assumed number of lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x]; the value l[x]+t at duration
t > 0 represents the number of lives remaining from the original l[x] who have attained age [x]+t. Lives are decremented using probabilities from table A.1A.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table A.2B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Survival Table
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
100,000
91,725
83,434
73,606
66,377
62,023
57,963
55,343
53,406
52,424
51,049
28
19
100,026
91,099
81,522
71,897
65,229
60,880
56,820
53,845
51,868
50,443
48,661
29
                         
20
101,502
91,525
80,672
71,149
64,178
59,427
55,398
52,134
50,100
48,305
46,208
30
21
104,198
92,597
80,435
70,374
63,089
57,802
53,509
50,025
47,887
45,889
43,652
31
22
106,322
93,243
80,155
69,517
61,933
56,136
51,477
47,841
45,537
43,367
41,063
32
23
106,319
92,862
79,072
67,918
60,045
54,156
49,360
45,605
43,104
40,835
38,562
33
24
105,153
91,661
77,202
65,669
57,667
51,866
47,063
43,246
40,579
38,314
36,159
34
                         
25
103,387
89,723
75,172
63,422
55,368
49,663
44,846
41,065
38,311
35,838
33,773
35
26
100,131
86,404
72,087
60,482
52,421
46,796
42,005
38,425
35,769
33,440
31,414
36
27
96,418
82,414
68,362
57,120
49,297
43,717
38,988
35,734
33,235
31,056
29,186
37
28
91,658
77,734
64,417
53,922
46,339
40,820
36,231
33,162
30,840
28,833
27,127
38
29
87,770
74,359
61,300
51,255
44,051
38,574
34,143
31,121
28,910
27,019
25,312
39
                         
30
85,047
71,873
58,796
49,153
42,131
36,678
32,517
29,495
27,387
25,581
23,721
40
31
81,215
68,383
55,764
46,629
40,083
34,871
31,006
27,977
25,970
24,224
22,279
41
32
77,563
64,768
52,454
43,844
37,766
32,947
29,354
26,447
24,559
22,839
20,965
42
33
73,279
60,895
49,240
41,065
35,382
31,035
27,677
24,971
23,231
21,501
19,709
43
34
69,017
57,384
46,443
38,477
33,041
29,094
25,961
23,486
21,842
20,138
18,463
44
                         
35
64,928
54,006
43,777
36,163
30,874
27,164
24,213
22,018
20,416
18,765
17,245
45
36
61,437
50,781
41,122
34,077
29,044
25,355
22,539
20,551
18,907
17,395
16,003
46
37
56,968
46,922
37,950
31,580
26,799
23,244
20,634
18,832
17,306
16,002
14,728
47
38
51,468
42,424
34,219
28,517
24,210
20,993
18,663
17,014
15,713
14,540
13,447
48
39
46,392
38,239
30,831
25,689
21,822
18,966
16,969
15,447
14,297
13,171
12,234
49
                         
40
41,724
34,344
27,856
23,172
19,733
17,266
15,549
14,160
13,087
12,005
11,179
50
41
38,905
31,674
25,737
21,336
18,186
16,002
14,447
13,204
12,124
11,093
10,312
51
42
37,449
30,242
24,285
20,021
16,995
15,009
13,559
12,364
11,275
10,332
9,559
52
43
35,608
28,647
22,775
18,704
15,825
14,006
12,703
11,569
10,526
9,679
8,909
53
44
33,636
26,762
21,299
17,471
14,729
13,054
11,882
10,810
9,830
9,041
8,299
54
                         
45
31,547
25,073
20,096
16,440
13,821
12,233
11,164
10,110
9,203
8,438
7,734
55
46
29,555
23,479
18,862
15,425
12,962
11,457
10,439
9,448
8,620
7,866
7,196
56
47
27,061
21,579
17,406
14,273
12,036
10,604
9,619
8,771
8,035
7,306
6,681
57
48
24,588
19,714
15,919
13,148
11,155
9,786
8,835
8,099
7,460
6,773
6,202
58
49
22,538
18,139
14,655
12,172
10,407
9,121
8,212
7,528
6,958
6,313
5,779
59
                         
50
20,828
16,714
13,502
11,263
9,704
8,505
7,664
7,037
6,522
5,915
5,407
60
51
19,689
15,611
12,597
10,535
9,132
7,998
7,226
6,653
6,162
5,581
5,086
61
52
18,967
14,742
11,876
9,946
8,656
7,585
6,869
6,287
5,801
5,246
4,764
62
53
18,125
13,812
11,112
9,314
8,113
7,149
6,501
5,902
5,419
4,902
4,451
63
54
17,151
12,860
10,331
8,657
7,547
6,712
6,061
5,471
5,007
4,540
4,132
64
                         
55
15,781
11,753
9,437
7,907
6,905
6,209
5,581
5,035
4,602
4,188
3,824
65
56
14,218
10,660
8,546
7,164
6,267
5,685
5,104
4,621
4,222
3,860
3,540
66
57
12,717
9,643
7,704
6,476
5,675
5,170
4,639
4,222
3,861
3,544
3,267
67
58
11,290
8,661
6,924
5,833
5,118
4,665
4,186
3,832
3,512
3,235
2,998
68
59
10,014
7,745
6,209
5,233
4,590
4,173
3,757
3,460
3,181
2,939
2,736
69
                         
60
8,892
6,898
5,555
4,680
4,099
3,714
3,372
3,124
2,885
2,676
2,487
70
61
8,032
6,184
4,995
4,212
3,681
3,324
3,053
2,840
2,639
2,442
2,253
71
62
7,573
5,742
4,640
3,919
3,411
3,073
2,842
2,627
2,410
2,215
2,027
72
63
7,306
5,414
4,355
3,687
3,193
2,873
2,644
2,429
2,198
1,987
1,807
73
64
7,142
5,152
4,114
3,488
3,006
2,700
2,474
2,258
2,017
1,794
1,604
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value l[x] at duration 0 represents the assumed number of lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x]; the value l[x]+t at duration
t > 0 represents the number of lives remaining from the original l[x] who have attained age [x]+t. Lives are decremented using probabilities from table A.1B.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table A.3A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Expected Future Lifetime
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
13.61
13.70
13.97
14.28
14.18
13.98
14.28
14.33
14.54
14.52
14.41
28
19
12.27
12.42
12.91
13.36
13.47
13.41
13.70
13.79
13.93
13.95
13.78
29
                         
20
11.14
11.38
12.06
12.65
12.94
12.98
13.25
13.35
13.44
13.47
13.27
30
21
10.05
10.44
11.29
12.02
12.49
12.68
12.88
12.96
13.02
13.05
12.86
31
22
9.03
9.53
10.50
11.47
12.10
12.41
12.57
12.60
12.64
12.69
12.53
32
23
8.05
8.59
9.66
10.77
11.54
11.94
12.14
12.18
12.36
12.47
12.25
33
24
7.19
7.78
8.86
10.06
10.90
11.38
11.69
11.78
12.03
12.15
11.99
34
                         
25
6.57
7.20
8.29
9.53
10.44
11.01
11.39
11.54
11.80
11.86
11.76
35
26
6.16
6.79
7.88
9.10
10.07
10.64
11.08
11.32
11.56
11.58
11.53
36
27
5.84
6.47
7.50
8.72
9.68
10.27
10.72
11.05
11.25
11.34
11.32
37
28
5.55
6.21
7.28
8.44
9.38
9.99
10.46
10.81
11.00
11.13
11.11
38
29
5.35
6.01
7.08
8.23
9.16
9.79
10.30
10.58
10.80
10.95
10.92
39
                         
30
5.23
5.91
6.95
8.05
8.96
9.60
10.13
10.34
10.61
10.76
10.70
40
31
5.13
5.77
6.76
7.84
8.72
9.41
9.92
10.14
10.42
10.54
10.48
41
32
4.95
5.62
6.60
7.65
8.54
9.24
9.71
9.99
10.29
10.37
10.32
42
33
4.90
5.58
6.53
7.53
8.39
9.07
9.52
9.86
10.18
10.21
10.16
43
34
4.87
5.56
6.46
7.46
8.27
8.97
9.38
9.74
10.04
10.05
9.99
44
                         
35
4.88
5.56
6.43
7.43
8.22
8.90
9.31
9.59
9.87
9.88
9.82
45
36
4.90
5.61
6.47
7.41
8.16
8.80
9.26
9.52
9.72
9.73
9.68
46
37
4.84
5.56
6.46
7.37
8.14
8.73
9.25
9.51
9.63
9.60
9.56
47
38
4.81
5.57
6.49
7.41
8.17
8.69
9.23
9.50
9.55
9.49
9.44
48
39
4.81
5.57
6.51
7.39
8.16
8.66
9.11
9.42
9.46
9.38
9.31
49
                         
40
4.73
5.53
6.42
7.30
8.00
8.47
8.93
9.30
9.35
9.27
9.19
50
41
4.66
5.43
6.30
7.17
7.79
8.26
8.71
9.10
9.19
9.13
9.05
51
42
4.56
5.30
6.20
7.05
7.65
8.07
8.52
8.89
9.02
8.99
8.92
52
43
4.46
5.21
6.09
6.92
7.53
7.92
8.34
8.71
8.87
8.84
8.81
53
44
4.37
5.12
5.93
6.76
7.39
7.80
8.18
8.53
8.70
8.67
8.66
54
                         
45
4.32
5.06
5.88
6.73
7.35
7.75
8.11
8.43
8.59
8.53
8.55
55
46
4.25
5.01
5.83
6.74
7.37
7.78
8.12
8.38
8.52
8.45
8.46
56
47
4.21
5.00
5.84
6.72
7.42
7.82
8.18
8.40
8.50
8.43
8.38
57
48
4.19
4.98
5.84
6.73
7.48
7.88
8.25
8.42
8.48
8.38
8.30
58
49
4.12
4.93
5.80
6.71
7.49
7.89
8.25
8.37
8.37
8.27
8.19
59
                         
50
4.07
4.83
5.70
6.62
7.41
7.82
8.16
8.23
8.20
8.09
8.05
60
51
3.99
4.73
5.59
6.48
7.25
7.68
7.97
8.02
7.97
7.87
7.87
61
52
3.89
4.67
5.52
6.35
7.04
7.44
7.71
7.80
7.77
7.67
7.66
62
53
3.81
4.63
5.47
6.26
6.86
7.21
7.44
7.57
7.56
7.46
7.44
63
54
3.79
4.66
5.45
6.19
6.73
7.05
7.25
7.38
7.40
7.27
7.23
64
                         
55
3.80
4.67
5.39
6.07
6.59
6.92
7.09
7.23
7.26
7.12
7.03
65
56
3.74
4.57
5.28
5.92
6.46
6.84
6.98
7.12
7.13
6.98
6.83
66
57
3.68
4.42
5.15
5.79
6.33
6.77
6.89
7.00
6.98
6.82
6.63
67
58
3.60
4.29
5.06
5.69
6.21
6.66
6.78
6.87
6.80
6.63
6.39
68
59
3.53
4.19
4.95
5.57
6.08
6.51
6.64
6.72
6.61
6.40
6.12
69
                         
60
3.49
4.10
4.79
5.37
5.83
6.17
6.27
6.32
6.18
6.02
5.80
70
61
3.45
4.07
4.73
5.33
5.75
6.02
6.12
6.15
5.97
5.74
5.46
71
62
3.38
4.06
4.70
5.31
5.69
5.90
6.00
5.98
5.76
5.45
5.12
72
63
3.27
4.05
4.68
5.28
5.63
5.80
5.90
5.83
5.57
5.18
4.79
73
64
3.14
4.05
4.64
5.23
5.57
5.73
5.82
5.70
5.39
4.93
4.49
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value e[x]+t at duration t represents the average number of years of life remaining for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t. Values are based on survivorship experience from table A.2A.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table A.3B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Expected Future Lifetime
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
14.17
14.41
14.79
15.70
16.35
16.47
16.58
16.35
15.92
15.21
14.61
28
19
13.53
13.81
14.37
15.23
15.74
15.83
15.92
15.77
15.36
14.78
14.30
29
                         
20
12.76
13.10
13.79
14.57
15.10
15.26
15.34
15.27
14.87
14.40
14.03
30
21
11.89
12.32
13.10
13.91
14.45
14.73
14.87
14.87
14.51
14.12
13.82
31
22
11.14
11.63
12.44
13.27
13.84
14.21
14.45
14.51
14.22
13.91
13.66
32
23
10.60
11.06
11.90
12.77
13.38
13.78
14.07
14.19
13.99
13.74
13.52
33
24
10.15
10.58
11.46
12.39
13.04
13.44
13.76
13.93
13.81
13.60
13.38
34
                         
25
9.78
10.19
11.07
12.02
12.70
13.10
13.46
13.65
13.59
13.50
13.29
35
26
9.49
9.91
10.78
11.76
12.49
12.93
13.35
13.54
13.51
13.42
13.25
36
27
9.22
9.70
10.59
11.58
12.33
12.84
13.34
13.51
13.49
13.40
13.23
37
28
9.05
9.58
10.46
11.40
12.18
12.76
13.31
13.50
13.48
13.38
13.19
38
29
8.87
9.38
10.28
11.19
11.94
12.57
13.13
13.36
13.34
13.24
13.10
39
                         
30
8.64
9.14
10.06
10.93
11.67
12.33
12.85
13.11
13.08
12.97
12.95
40
31
8.51
9.01
9.93
10.78
11.46
12.10
12.54
12.85
12.80
12.69
12.75
41
32
8.34
8.89
9.86
10.69
11.33
11.92
12.32
12.61
12.55
12.45
12.52
42
33
8.24
8.81
9.78
10.63
11.25
11.76
12.12
12.38
12.27
12.22
12.29
43
34
8.15
8.70
9.64
10.53
11.18
11.63
11.97
12.18
12.06
12.04
12.08
44
                         
35
8.07
8.60
9.49
10.38
11.07
11.52
11.86
11.99
11.89
11.90
11.90
45
36
7.93
8.49
9.36
10.20
10.88
11.38
11.74
11.83
11.82
11.80
11.78
46
37
7.87
8.45
9.33
10.11
10.82
11.40
11.78
11.86
11.86
11.79
11.76
47
38
7.93
8.51
9.43
10.21
10.94
11.54
11.92
12.03
11.98
11.91
11.83
48
39
8.00
8.60
9.54
10.35
11.10
11.69
12.01
12.15
12.08
12.07
11.96
49
                         
40
8.11
8.74
9.66
10.51
11.26
11.79
12.04
12.17
12.13
12.18
12.04
50
41
8.03
8.74
9.65
10.53
11.27
11.74
11.95
12.03
12.06
12.13
12.01
51
42
7.78
8.52
9.49
10.40
11.16
11.57
11.76
11.85
11.94
11.99
11.92
52
43
7.62
8.35
9.38
10.31
11.09
11.47
11.59
11.68
11.79
11.78
11.75
53
44
7.49
8.28
9.28
10.21
11.01
11.36
11.43
11.52
11.62
11.59
11.58
54
                         
45
7.43
8.21
9.13
10.04
10.85
11.20
11.22
11.34
11.41
11.39
11.39
55
46
7.36
8.14
9.00
9.90
10.69
11.02
11.05
11.16
11.18
11.20
11.20
56
47
7.40
8.15
8.98
9.84
10.58
10.94
11.01
11.03
10.99
11.04
11.02
57
48
7.46
8.18
9.02
9.81
10.47
10.87
10.99
10.94
10.83
10.88
10.84
58
49
7.49
8.19
9.02
9.75
10.32
10.71
10.84
10.78
10.62
10.66
10.59
59
                         
50
7.47
8.18
9.01
9.71
10.18
10.55
10.65
10.56
10.35
10.36
10.29
60
51
7.33
8.11
8.93
9.58
9.98
10.32
10.37
10.22
9.99
9.98
9.91
61
52
7.08
7.97
8.77
9.38
9.70
10.00
9.99
9.87
9.65
9.62
9.54
62
53
6.86
7.85
8.63
9.20
9.49
9.70
9.62
9.55
9.35
9.29
9.18
63
54
6.67
7.73
8.50
9.04
9.30
9.39
9.35
9.30
9.12
9.01
8.85
64
                         
55
6.59
7.68
8.44
8.98
9.20
9.18
9.16
9.10
8.91
8.74
8.52
65
56
6.60
7.64
8.41
8.93
9.14
9.03
9.00
8.89
8.68
8.45
8.16
66
57
6.64
7.60
8.38
8.88
9.06
8.89
8.85
8.68
8.44
8.15
7.80
67
58
6.68
7.56
8.33
8.80
8.96
8.78
8.73
8.49
8.22
7.88
7.46
68
59
6.71
7.52
8.26
8.71
8.86
8.70
8.60
8.30
7.98
7.60
7.13
69
                         
60
6.70
7.49
8.18
8.62
8.77
8.63
8.45
8.08
7.71
7.27
6.79
70
61
6.60
7.43
8.07
8.48
8.63
8.51
8.22
7.80
7.35
6.90
6.44
71
62
6.35
7.21
7.80
8.15
8.28
8.14
7.76
7.36
6.97
6.54
6.10
72
63
5.99
6.91
7.47
7.74
7.86
7.68
7.30
6.90
6.57
6.22
5.79
73
64
5.62
6.60
7.13
7.32
7.42
7.20
6.81
6.42
6.13
5.82
5.46
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.
2. The value e[x]+t at duration t represents the average number of years of life remaining for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t. Values are based on survivorship experience from table A.2B.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.

Table A.4.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Select Age
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Select
Age
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
18
0.068322
13.51
0.075990
14.82
19
0.083109
12.63
0.086397
14.34
         
20
0.094482
12.03
0.093430
13.69
21
0.111779
11.31
0.102772
12.99
22
0.130359
10.64
0.113820
12.33
23
0.150559
9.82
0.119461
11.88
24
0.170776
9.02
0.127058
11.41
         
25
0.188361
8.42
0.131007
11.11
26
0.200537
7.95
0.136783
10.81
27
0.212855
7.47
0.142660
10.59
28
0.223527
7.13
0.146474
10.40
29
0.232689
6.82
0.148653
10.22
         
30
0.235709
6.68
0.151829
9.96
31
0.238340
6.49
0.154599
9.74
32
0.245431
6.28
0.157002
9.64
33
0.246176
6.21
0.157643
9.58
34
0.246689
6.14
0.159302
9.43
         
35
0.245571
6.12
0.160455
9.29
36
0.244566
6.13
0.163871
9.10
37
0.248019
6.08
0.164185
9.11
38
0.250742
6.04
0.165421
9.13
39
0.251339
6.02
0.166034
9.18
         
40
0.253506
5.94
0.163809
9.34
41
0.255266
5.81
0.167282
9.26
42
0.258822
5.68
0.172959
9.05
43
0.263482
5.54
0.175812
8.93
44
0.267847
5.39
0.178870
8.80
         
45
0.270347
5.33
0.176855
8.76
46
0.273812
5.30
0.179132
8.55
47
0.277050
5.28
0.175619
8.62
48
0.279562
5.27
0.170919
8.67
49
0.280948
5.27
0.166517
8.69
         
50
0.284454
5.14
0.167123
8.64
51
0.286239
5.05
0.163866
8.59
52
0.291586
4.93
0.170502
8.31
53
0.294976
4.83
0.176643
8.09
54
0.294866
4.83
0.181420
7.93
         
55
0.287317
4.86
0.183020
7.81
56
0.289290
4.76
0.168520
7.90
57
0.296924
4.55
0.170139
7.79
58
0.294435
4.54
0.151816
7.86
59
0.297433
4.42
0.167058
7.61
         
60
0.295327
4.33
0.161554
7.62
61
0.294897
4.28
0.160182
7.54
62
0.299634
4.24
0.162550
7.19
63
0.310498
4.09
0.170110
6.85
64
0.327786
4.02
0.198767
5.97

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits.
2. Probability of death at select age [x] represents the average probability of dying within one year for those originally entitled to disability benefits at that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all durations from tables A.1A and A.1B.
3. Future lifetime at select age [x] represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits at that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all durations from tables A.3A and A.3B.

Table A.5.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Attained Age
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Attained Age
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
18
0.076854
13.61
0.082751
14.17
19
0.088342
12.92
0.089688
13.87
         
20
0.102948
12.17
0.103995
13.47
21
0.118910
11.28
0.113442
13.03
22
0.137140
10.44
0.118955
12.55
23
0.156280
9.66
0.122574
11.98
24
0.175531
8.96
0.127347
11.52
         
25
0.193759
8.30
0.133362
11.14
26
0.207338
7.79
0.137908
10.78
27
0.218384
7.38
0.143873
10.50
28
0.227265
7.06
0.148936
10.31
29
0.235964
6.83
0.150009
10.15
         
30
0.240200
6.68
0.152275
10.00
31
0.241238
6.58
0.155346
9.87
32
0.244288
6.44
0.158269
9.74
33
0.247465
6.34
0.160528
9.68
34
0.247380
6.29
0.159761
9.64
         
35
0.246007
6.25
0.158937
9.57
36
0.245855
6.24
0.160248
9.47
37
0.245601
6.23
0.160870
9.41
38
0.246579
6.24
0.159851
9.40
39
0.245030
6.25
0.159023
9.41
         
40
0.246812
6.25
0.158704
9.50
41
0.243427
6.26
0.159199
9.55
42
0.243340
6.21
0.160162
9.54
43
0.245951
6.14
0.161783
9.52
44
0.245994
6.06
0.165303
9.45
         
45
0.246503
5.98
0.164593
9.42
46
0.249341
5.91
0.163771
9.35
47
0.253125
5.83
0.162498
9.34
48
0.256148
5.77
0.160126
9.35
49
0.259396
5.71
0.156998
9.39
         
50
0.260509
5.66
0.156314
9.31
51
0.263741
5.59
0.156891
9.26
52
0.270345
5.50
0.159361
9.15
53
0.271467
5.49
0.161894
9.02
54
0.272839
5.45
0.164594
8.86
         
55
0.271983
5.39
0.163274
8.79
56
0.267767
5.34
0.159890
8.72
57
0.266655
5.22
0.155705
8.66
58
0.269889
5.09
0.152092
8.60
59
0.271629
5.03
0.148951
8.52
         
60
0.273924
4.92
0.146464
8.41
61
0.275834
4.83
0.147308
8.28
62
0.268898
4.92
0.138408
8.30
63
0.265248
4.97
0.138136
8.16
64
0.254916
5.10
0.126904
8.15
         
65
0.205220
5.64
0.104734
8.25
66
0.176337
5.93
0.089999
8.17
67
0.151157
6.11
0.081504
7.93
68
0.134328
6.13
0.080340
7.59
69
0.121855
6.02
0.084100
7.23
         
70
0.115662
5.79
0.090176
6.85
71
0.116126
5.49
0.097299
6.48
72
0.122963
5.15
0.107303
6.11
73
0.137954
4.80
0.111507
5.79
74
0.152286
4.49
0.119864
5.46

Notes:
1. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration.
2. Probability of death at attained age x represents the average probability of dying within one year for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have attained that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all durations from tables A.1A and A.1B.
3. Future lifetime at attained age x represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have attained that particular age. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all durations from tables A.3A and A.3B.

Table A.6.—HIV Disabled Beneficiaries
Aggregate Probability of Death and Expected Future Lifetime,
by Duration
(1992-96 Social Security DI and SSI disability experience)
Duration
Male
Female
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
Probability
of death
Future
lifetime
0
0.283541
4.92
0.169336
8.42
1
0.273071
5.70
0.183222
9.05
2
0.244393
6.68
0.164897
9.97
3
0.199685
7.72
0.140544
10.85
4
0.163293
8.56
0.118649
11.55
         
5
0.142987
9.19
0.103270
12.02
6
0.122155
9.71
0.087680
12.32
7
0.111233
10.06
0.072185
12.42
8
0.095347
10.35
0.071452
12.29
9
0.086784
10.50
0.071003
12.15
         
10
0.074625
10.60
0.068964
12.03
11
0.075340
10.55
0.069579
12.02
12
0.076890
10.43
0.069796
11.98
13
0.077042
10.45
0.069784
12.01
14
0.077695
10.42
0.070278
12.08
         
15
0.077865
10.39
0.070932
12.15
16
0.079182
10.27
0.071142
12.14
17
0.080104
10.16
0.071624
12.05
18
0.082945
9.94
0.070367
12.09
19
0.084987
9.79
0.070967
11.93
         
20
0.087629
9.60
0.071820
11.81
21
0.089931
9.43
0.073790
11.63
22
0.091907
9.28
0.075381
11.54
23
0.092693
8.99
0.079757
10.63
24
0.094067
8.86
0.074262
11.57
         
25
0.096564
8.74
0.070594
11.08
26
0.100894
8.29
0.068309
10.66
27
0.101452
7.92
0.065571
9.73
28
0.104630
7.60
0.068990
9.38
29
0.106346
7.60
0.068502
9.20
         
30
0.102299
7.98
0.071738
9.18

Notes:
1. Duration measured in years since selection.
2. Probability of death at duration t represents the average probability of dying during the (t+1) year of entitlement to disability benefits. Values are exposure-weighted averages of the graduated and blended probabilities of death across all ages from tables A.1A and A.1B.
3. Future lifetime at duration t represents the aggregate life expectancy in years for those originally entitled to disability benefits who have not died after t years. Values are exposure-weighted averages of expected future lifetime across all ages from tables A.3A and A.3B.

Table A.7A.—Male HIV Disabled Beneficiaries (DI Program Only)
Probability of Death
(1992-96 Social Security DI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.083143
0.125620
0.095404
0.063989
0.036931
0.026101
0.041330
0.032434
0.039610
0.048491
0.051228
28
19
0.102308
0.147033
0.116319
0.082042
0.055439
0.042194
0.052732
0.047554
0.051541
0.055394
0.054988
29
                         
20
0.121279
0.167906
0.136524
0.100459
0.073264
0.058507
0.063783
0.063061
0.063324
0.062028
0.058626
30
21
0.143307
0.187474
0.156936
0.121048
0.089899
0.074795
0.074592
0.079262
0.074481
0.068734
0.061690
31
22
0.166415
0.208700
0.184031
0.141772
0.105169
0.090007
0.084637
0.095696
0.084917
0.075574
0.062392
32
23
0.192268
0.231526
0.209878
0.163155
0.119266
0.104507
0.094230
0.109974
0.092658
0.081477
0.061113
33
24
0.220468
0.249497
0.230135
0.181175
0.135239
0.118904
0.102043
0.120119
0.098760
0.086444
0.060112
34
                         
25
0.243398
0.265313
0.241581
0.197286
0.148290
0.128593
0.106302
0.124261
0.104328
0.091039
0.059373
35
26
0.257986
0.277530
0.251817
0.209626
0.153321
0.135548
0.110752
0.123111
0.110864
0.094830
0.057839
36
27
0.267891
0.281427
0.263756
0.214390
0.157586
0.140991
0.115562
0.119765
0.115986
0.096803
0.056643
37
28
0.279386
0.293601
0.265723
0.216678
0.162446
0.143736
0.118080
0.118455
0.118240
0.096533
0.057285
38
29
0.286262
0.298196
0.270046
0.219755
0.167638
0.146235
0.115376
0.117498
0.118548
0.094704
0.058874
39
                         
30
0.290573
0.298485
0.269322
0.223541
0.172433
0.145423
0.113473
0.118790
0.116069
0.091943
0.061342
40
31
0.291422
0.295149
0.272669
0.225404
0.182163
0.144905
0.118118
0.120372
0.112254
0.089473
0.066574
41
32
0.304515
0.299171
0.273831
0.230754
0.189278
0.146697
0.129526
0.124019
0.107691
0.087428
0.069541
42
33
0.311974
0.304021
0.273399
0.235216
0.191748
0.153613
0.138939
0.128523
0.104216
0.086764
0.069017
43
34
0.313162
0.307336
0.278897
0.235968
0.197802
0.157691
0.143022
0.131136
0.100818
0.085803
0.069871
44
                         
35
0.311234
0.302524
0.282073
0.237112
0.197698
0.160068
0.140263
0.131488
0.099249
0.086118
0.069436
45
36
0.319427
0.300062
0.277002
0.229221
0.197976
0.164846
0.139447
0.125740
0.097445
0.087053
0.070054
46
37
0.324502
0.305336
0.273967
0.224141
0.195877
0.169430
0.139806
0.118811
0.094425
0.086384
0.072813
47
38
0.327859
0.302321
0.272789
0.224922
0.187842
0.172672
0.143942
0.114409
0.092590
0.084747
0.074322
48
39
0.332243
0.308669
0.268731
0.229090
0.185823
0.171038
0.151053
0.113683
0.091057
0.083739
0.074637
49
                         
40
0.342377
0.308808
0.266703
0.224788
0.185374
0.176786
0.157626
0.115127
0.091205
0.084630
0.074304
50
41
0.342711
0.309816
0.270118
0.219064
0.188417
0.181266
0.160620
0.117801
0.094598
0.088422
0.071449
51
42
0.345098
0.319857
0.274175
0.216866
0.188495
0.182870
0.161822
0.120870
0.100255
0.092677
0.068966
52
43
0.357941
0.325065
0.276557
0.219384
0.191161
0.178990
0.164103
0.124439
0.104993
0.094346
0.068933
53
44
0.363801
0.326360
0.283660
0.226461
0.194039
0.172745
0.164374
0.129097
0.107733
0.095771
0.069770
54
                         
45
0.361212
0.328289
0.291326
0.229112
0.191338
0.169358
0.159564
0.132736
0.109343
0.097136
0.070347
55
46
0.363893
0.323286
0.296778
0.230814
0.187432
0.166539
0.152207
0.133760
0.109300
0.098157
0.071818
56
47
0.370453
0.325388
0.291028
0.238202
0.183880
0.165907
0.145619
0.131028
0.108884
0.097884
0.073809
57
48
0.372783
0.330432
0.292664
0.244630
0.180272
0.164358
0.139879
0.127227
0.108379
0.095606
0.075640
58
49
0.377197
0.333112
0.297996
0.249370
0.179429
0.163007
0.136074
0.123761
0.106439
0.092109
0.077310
59
                         
50
0.372227
0.336803
0.300676
0.252298
0.181077
0.162037
0.135594
0.121589
0.102920
0.089269
0.077097
60
51
0.375351
0.339788
0.294778
0.249587
0.184790
0.163793
0.136590
0.119505
0.098051
0.091925
0.078640
61
52
0.385854
0.340113
0.287026
0.240343
0.185568
0.167975
0.137500
0.115341
0.091975
0.093154
0.079571
62
53
0.394292
0.336287
0.284313
0.233346
0.183847
0.170443
0.136854
0.111308
0.085554
0.095555
0.082484
63
54
0.398652
0.327947
0.282079
0.229849
0.183350
0.168665
0.134909
0.107778
0.085110
0.098568
0.087009
64
                         
55
0.397489
0.323837
0.279588
0.230476
0.186666
0.165346
0.131580
0.104878
0.088935
0.099953
0.092375
65
56
0.396620
0.331189
0.278582
0.236055
0.193082
0.159877
0.127277
0.101099
0.092247
0.100445
0.099420
66
57
0.389835
0.344241
0.280736
0.241521
0.200702
0.155359
0.121922
0.097333
0.094934
0.101590
0.106045
67
58
0.389248
0.353183
0.282947
0.246610
0.206813
0.153444
0.117528
0.094391
0.096565
0.103170
0.110500
68
59
0.388658
0.355485
0.289409
0.253811
0.212358
0.154018
0.115638
0.092933
0.096225
0.104148
0.113069
69
                         
60
0.383698
0.352369
0.296965
0.259487
0.214274
0.157725
0.116372
0.093218
0.093853
0.104068
0.115606
70
61
0.386548
0.350832
0.306547
0.258640
0.214355
0.163898
0.119325
0.095180
0.090720
0.103657
0.120661
71
62
0.400798
0.350283
0.311878
0.255217
0.214507
0.171032
0.123964
0.098535
0.093963
0.102653
0.128596
72
63
0.429150
0.346451
0.314128
0.253693
0.217197
0.178922
0.129085
0.101881
0.097725
0.099889
0.137575
73
64
0.465179
0.341202
0.315227
0.254505
0.222109
0.186908
0.134584
0.105383
0.101771
0.110605
0.147805
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program. Probabilities reflect experience of the DI rolls only. Beneficiaries may be concurrently entitled to DI and SSI benefits, but those entitled to SSI only are not considered.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Table A.7B.—Female HIV Disabled Beneficiaries (DI Program Only)
Probability of Death
(1992-96 Social Security DI disability experience)
Select
age
Duration of disability
Attained
age
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or
more
18
0.079026
0.114213
0.138578
0.123934
0.091646
0.072268
0.052822
0.038317
0.035101
0.039890
0.047312
28
19
0.097538
0.135342
0.145327
0.125573
0.092228
0.076082
0.058458
0.043874
0.041652
0.043447
0.046805
29
                         
20
0.116184
0.156284
0.152323
0.127900
0.093513
0.080368
0.063940
0.049413
0.048174
0.046938
0.046180
30
21
0.135438
0.176292
0.160768
0.132327
0.096113
0.084998
0.068925
0.055025
0.054499
0.050205
0.045181
31
22
0.154913
0.191922
0.169393
0.139520
0.100614
0.089130
0.073272
0.060662
0.060063
0.052938
0.043320
32
23
0.169330
0.201566
0.180081
0.147580
0.105926
0.091704
0.076825
0.065972
0.064765
0.054720
0.050912
33
24
0.178069
0.207922
0.192609
0.154425
0.112470
0.094513
0.079749
0.070487
0.067896
0.054872
0.053195
34
                         
25
0.183582
0.210439
0.202868
0.159948
0.119576
0.098598
0.081119
0.073378
0.069391
0.053143
0.057533
35
26
0.185818
0.210603
0.207652
0.164713
0.127558
0.103194
0.082253
0.073179
0.068364
0.060616
0.060870
36
27
0.186906
0.209077
0.205132
0.168508
0.134411
0.106905
0.083430
0.071718
0.065579
0.063655
0.062134
37
28
0.190539
0.210526
0.198987
0.171664
0.140192
0.107861
0.086407
0.070346
0.061443
0.065485
0.063555
38
29
0.196869
0.219549
0.197110
0.172484
0.143504
0.106551
0.089859
0.069628
0.064008
0.069184
0.064475
39
                         
30
0.207891
0.230446
0.199513
0.173059
0.143768
0.103922
0.092597
0.068784
0.067130
0.074369
0.062048
40
31
0.225123
0.236764
0.205855
0.169213
0.142432
0.103383
0.095343
0.067818
0.069380
0.078362
0.054429
41
32
0.243163
0.238084
0.209423
0.163308
0.141715
0.105583
0.096095
0.067157
0.072537
0.078262
0.047784
42
33
0.253629
0.237106
0.208117
0.159128
0.139577
0.107540
0.094466
0.065585
0.077078
0.076399
0.045773
43
34
0.258253
0.237884
0.205982
0.158736
0.135544
0.107134
0.091559
0.062701
0.081677
0.071939
0.045101
44
                         
35
0.252717
0.238934
0.203287
0.159897
0.129743
0.103242
0.087786
0.064369
0.083958
0.067896
0.046517
45
36
0.247372
0.241603
0.199467
0.157574
0.126425
0.098399
0.083574
0.068471
0.083856
0.067087
0.050616
46
37
0.244826
0.242575
0.195985
0.154614
0.124098
0.094370
0.079644
0.069637
0.083251
0.066912
0.053930
47
38
0.243154
0.240779
0.193150
0.152812
0.119172
0.091325
0.076862
0.069421
0.082194
0.063706
0.055467
48
39
0.244224
0.236722
0.193704
0.152439
0.113498
0.086491
0.072196
0.070486
0.079836
0.060716
0.055766
49
                         
40
0.245567
0.229702
0.197210
0.151862
0.108376
0.080183
0.070730
0.070704
0.076366
0.060552
0.055758
50
41
0.249439
0.227962
0.201205
0.150573
0.104525
0.074667
0.070888
0.072317
0.072897
0.063236
0.055926
51
42
0.252011
0.234987
0.206778
0.150880
0.102631
0.069499
0.072891
0.075391
0.069565
0.068201
0.054926
52
43
0.257186
0.239285
0.207500
0.149957
0.101901
0.071739
0.075065
0.075245
0.067946
0.074458
0.051677
53
44
0.268059
0.235922
0.202809
0.149774
0.101875
0.075933
0.076168
0.074440
0.069686
0.079164
0.048998
54
                         
45
0.275026
0.230493
0.196181
0.151860
0.101210
0.080398
0.077399
0.074139
0.074007
0.081020
0.046827
55
46
0.280487
0.230282
0.189600
0.153471
0.099110
0.081100
0.074255
0.073228
0.079097
0.082592
0.046086
56
47
0.283300
0.229393
0.184919
0.151989
0.098986
0.078284
0.067835
0.070976
0.084318
0.084560
0.046155
57
48
0.280516
0.230267
0.181096
0.148422
0.100710
0.073271
0.062066
0.068949
0.088185
0.086610
0.047682
58
49
0.277422
0.229939
0.179738
0.143144
0.102695
0.067194
0.058133
0.068681
0.091203
0.089696
0.052834
59
                         
50
0.279904
0.227908
0.180224
0.138041
0.104230
0.060883
0.057450
0.069952
0.094497
0.093248
0.055628
60
51
0.287003
0.227813
0.181145
0.134154
0.104819
0.057856
0.060239
0.073067
0.097770
0.097218
0.056873
61
52
0.296224
0.228173
0.182075
0.131358
0.105012
0.060044
0.066430
0.077255
0.100703
0.099068
0.057057
62
53
0.305687
0.229954
0.183024
0.130205
0.103133
0.066663
0.075574
0.082218
0.101587
0.095887
0.056236
63
54
0.313424
0.232727
0.183418
0.128766
0.099692
0.076279
0.084093
0.087199
0.100503
0.091167
0.055919
64
                         
55
0.314705
0.235461
0.182556
0.127397
0.095179
0.086855
0.089272
0.091386
0.098230
0.086448
0.056311
65
56
0.307646
0.238446
0.180756
0.126512
0.090974
0.096670
0.092086
0.094279
0.095217
0.082985
0.057718
66
57
0.295924
0.241963
0.178151
0.126292
0.088220
0.104305
0.093410
0.095103
0.091846
0.080904
0.060442
67
58
0.284262
0.241986
0.176371
0.127102
0.087459
0.108629
0.093300
0.092729
0.088171
0.078680
0.064619
68
59
0.276877
0.240431
0.176336
0.128641
0.088944
0.108951
0.091398
0.088129
0.084344
0.076503
0.069879
69
                         
60
0.274923
0.238823
0.178520
0.130850
0.091297
0.104689
0.087164
0.082193
0.079689
0.073062
0.075151
70
61
0.280447
0.237663
0.180692
0.132958
0.094039
0.096950
0.081546
0.083692
0.083678
0.082768
0.081228
71
62
0.289534
0.236894
0.182276
0.135860
0.096426
0.088299
0.079752
0.095372
0.097375
0.092966
0.088267
72
63
0.302195
0.237619
0.183492
0.139993
0.098635
0.078422
0.085829
0.107164
0.112011
0.103652
0.095885
73
64
0.316224
0.238856
0.185197
0.144398
0.101031
0.083658
0.092126
0.118599
0.126426
0.114562
0.104047
74

Notes:
1. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement to disability benefits. Duration measured in years since selection. Attained age calculated as sum of select age and duration. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program. Probabilities reflect experience of the DI rolls only. Beneficiaries may be concurrently entitled to DI and SSI benefits, but those entitled to SSI only are not considered.
2. The value q[x]+t at duration t represents the probability of death—in a multiple-decrement environment—during the (t+1) year of entitlement for those originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [x] who have attained age [x]+t.
3. Select-and-ultimate table is read across the row for 0-10 years since selection, and down the last (ultimate) column for 10 or more years since selection.
4. Results have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional method.

Appendix B

Study Population and Methods

A. Overview

For this study, we analyzed over 538,000 records of disabled beneficiaries from two separate 5-year periods: January 1, 1997-December 31, 2001 and January 1, 1992-December 31, 1996. The primary variables of interest include the reason for decrement from the disability rolls, and duration since entitlement. However, factors other than time since selection affect survival. These include the standard concomitant variables of select age and sex of the beneficiary. The analysis reflects exposure counts of roughly 1,088,000 life-years for males and 327,000 life-years for females. A 10-year select period was chosen for this study, implying that decrement for participants 10 or more years beyond selection is no longer a function of select age, but a function of attained age only.

As it relates to the HIV cohorts under observation, the main cause of termination of DI or SSI benefits is death of the beneficiary. Termination may also occur for non-death reasons such as returning to work, conversion to old-age benefits under the DI program, or 12 consecutive months of non-pay status under the SSI program. However, due to the sparsity of such terminations among HIV beneficiaries, separate decrement tables are not developed for categories other than death. The table below provides a breakdown of the termination data collected from the MBR and SSR.

Number of HIV Disabled Beneficiaries on the DI and SSI Rolls with Benefits Terminated, by Reason
 
Male
Female
Total
(January 1997-December 2001)
Death
44,747
13,643
58,390
Non-Death
11,440
3,657
15,097
Total
56,187
17,300
73,487
(January 1992-December 1996)
Death
124,553
21,136
145,689
Non-Death
7,259
2,450
9,709
Total
131,812
23,586
155,398

Source: HIV database as of June 2004. Results do not include auxiliary beneficiaries payable under the DI program.

B. Data Considerations

Beneficiaries observed for this study are categorized under one of several HIV disability impairment codes. A code of 042, 043, or 044 was listed as either the primary or secondary reason for impairment during the observation period.17 Note that HIV is not necessarily the primary reason for impairment—for example, if an individual is incapacitated by depression brought on by HIV, then depression might be the primary diagnosis, with HIV coded as secondary. We also consider beneficiaries who have had an HIV impairment in the past, but appeared on the rolls during the observation period under another impairment category. There are instances where HIV is present, but the applicant is either (1) denied benefits, or (2) initially allowed benefits without HIV being listed as the primary or secondary reason for disability. These cases are not captured in the study.

The mortality experience is affected by several unique circumstances. It is recognized that a claimant may die during the 5-month waiting period required under the DI program—and therefore never becomes entitled; or the claimant may die before final disposition of the disability claim—in which case only retroactive disability benefits may be payable. With regard to the DI program, participation in this study is contingent upon entitlement to benefits. Therefore, death prior to entitlement is not a "countable" death. As a result, the probability of death during the first year of entitlement may be artificially lower than expected. Note that the SSI program does not have a waiting period and SSI-only recipients come under observation as soon as eligibility is determined.

In general, observation ends with the period in which benefits are terminated. As previously mentioned, non-death termination of benefits can occur when a beneficiary returns to work, or remains in non-pay status for 12 consecutive months under the SSI program—for example, due to excess income or resources. Under the DI program, disabled workers may convert to old-age benefits at anytime beginning with age 62, with mandatory conversion taking place at normal retirement age. Such conversion is considered a termination of disability benefits as old-age benefits become payable from the OASI Trust Fund. However, disabled beneficiaries continue under observation in this study beyond the time of the switch. Consequently, deaths for attained ages 62 and older may come from the OASI rolls. The SSI program has an aged category for non-disabled individuals whose eligibility requires them, in part, to be age 65 or older. However, there is no automatic conversion to this category for disabled recipients—who generally continue to be considered disabled beyond this age, and also continue under observation in this study.

Other exceptional cases exist where observation continues beyond non-death termination of benefits. This occurs for some SSI-only cases in which the SSR is automatically annotated upon reporting of death. Instances where death is recorded after non-death termination may result in additional exposure credited to an otherwise terminated recipient. However, this anomaly does not materially impact results.

This study integrates a special longitudinal file constructed from the SSR. However, due to the nature of the data, several problems were encountered in combining MBR records with SSR records relating to individuals who receive both DI and SSI benefits during a period of disability. As they appear on the MBR, entitlement and cessation dates are utilized for processing concurrent cases while accounting for overlapping periods of DI entitlement and SSI eligibility. Under this convention, observation begins from the date of DI entitlement. As a result, up to 5 months of exposure may not be captured for beneficiaries who receive an SSI benefit during the DI 5-month waiting period. Also some exposure may not be captured for beneficiaries who transition from concurrent status to SSI-only eligibility, due to SGA earnings after the 36-month DI extended period of eligibility. In such cases, observation ends upon termination of DI benefits as a result of work activity. However, SSI eligibility may continue if earnings are such that countable income does not exceed the applicable Federal SSI benefit rate. It should be noted, however, that the above omissions do not materially impact results. Refer to appendix C for details on SSI considerations.

Another problem involves beneficiaries having multiple records on the SSR. It is possible that different records are related to different impairments. For example, an SSI beneficiary might have several records of eligibility; at least one of which, but not necessarily all, are related to HIV impairments. Given the structure of the longitudinal file, it is not possible to distinguish which records in multiple-record cases are relevant to the study and which are not. In such instances, all records of eligibility are processed.

C. Methods

The availability of complete data on each participant in the study (including date of birth, date of entitlement, and cause of decrement) allows for direct estimation of the multiple-decrement probabilities q(i), where i represents the cause of decrement. The ordered pair (r,s) is determined for each age interval (x,x+1] for which a participant is under observation. The concept is that each participant enters the interval at age x+r(0 ≤ r < 1), and is scheduled to exit the interval at age x+s(0 < s ≤ 1). Numerically, s-r is the amount of time (measured in life-years) that the participant is exposed to the risk of decrement. Summing over all participants, we can calculate the scheduled exposure contributed to an interval.18

A participant may survive to the end of an interval, or may exit the study prior to the end of the interval in the event of:

Based on these criteria, a scheduled ending age, x+s, is established for an age interval in which the participant is expected to either survive to the end (s=1), or become an observed ender (s < 1).19 Scheduled exposure is then credited to the appropriate interval (or duration since selection) using the following conditions: if the participant survives to the end of the interval, then exposure is credited from x+r to x+1; if the participant dies or is an observed ender within the interval, then exposure is credited from x+r to x+s; if the participant withdraws from the study during the interval (for example, recovers), then exposure is credited from age x+r to to x+s. Death probabilities are found by dividing the observed number of deaths in an interval by the aggregate scheduled exposure for that interval.

D. Select Age, Duration, and Graduation

Entitlement to disability benefits usually occurs at some fractional age of the beneficiary. To facilitate exposure calculations, the insuring age of the participant and corresponding insuring date of birth are substituted for the actual age at entitlement and actual date of birth. In this study, the insuring age is calculated to be the beneficiary's age last birthday as of entitlement. For example, consider the following beneficiary data:

Date of entitlement: 1-February-1992

Date of birth: 10-July-1960

Actual age at entitlement: 31 years, 206 days

Insuring (select) age: 31 years

Insuring date of birth: 1-February-1961

Use of insuring age results in an integral select age at entitlement ensuring that subsequent durations begin on the entitlement anniversary. This is true whether the participant enters the study during the observation period, or is already part of the entitlement group when the observation period opens.

The intervals for which a participant is under observation—measured from the select age—are called durations. For each select age [x] and duration n, the ordered pair (r,s) represents the amount of exposure contributed to the observation interval ([x]+n,[x]+n+1]. For durations extending beyond the 10-year select period, exposure is credited to the appropriate attained age interval. For details on the crediting of exposure, the reader is referred to Actuarial Study No. 118.

The select-and-ultimate multiple-decrement probabilities are graduated using the two-dimensional Whittaker-Henderson Type B method.20 The horizontal and vertical smoothing coefficients were chosen to obtain some degree of smoothness within individual durations (columns) as well as within select ages (rows). The erratic nature of the data at various attained ages results in some deviation from the original estimates.

Although HIV disability beneficiaries may live to older ages, current administrative records show very little evidence of survival beyond age 74. Therefore, no results are presented beyond this attained age.

E. Survival Tables

Survival tables 2A-2B (and A.2A-A.2B) are constructed from the select-and-ultimate death probabilities. The functions l[x],l[x],+1, ...,l74 are first calculated for select age [x] = 18, using a radix of 100,000. This step determines values for the ultimate period of the table. Functions for select ages [x] > 18 are then derived retrospectively from the ultimate values. For example, l[x] is determined from lx + 10 using the survival probabilities of the select period for the given select age. The number l[x] + t represents the number alive at the beginning of duration t from those originally entitled at select age [x]. Note that the number alive at various select ages are not actual counts of disability beneficiaries. Rather, the number living at the beginning of any duration are for illustrative purposes, chosen to represent the probability of survival based on values shown in tables 1A-1B (and A.1A-A.1B).

The survival tables are read across the row, or select period, for 0-10 years since selection, then down the last column, or ultimate period for 10 or more years since selection. Numbers for the following example can be found in table 2A. Of the male beneficiaries disabled at select age 30, the following table shows the number surviving (that is, still on the disability rolls) after the stated number of years:

Years since
entitlement
Number
living
Probability of survival
Attained age
0
71,589
1.000
30
1
64,568
.902
31
5
47,251
.660
35
10
35,426
.495
40
15
26,071
.364
45

F. Expected Future Lifetime

Future lifetime tables are produced from the survival functions described above using basic actuarial principles found in any standard actuarial text on life contingencies. Tables 4-5 (and A.4-A.5) show the results of aggregating over duration by select or attained age.

Aggregate lifetime for a specific select age is an exposure-weighted average of the expected future lifetime at each duration of that age. This differs from aggregate lifetime for a specific attained age, which is an exposure-weighted average of the expected future lifetime of those durations representing a particular attained age.

For example, aggregate lifetime for select age 40 is a weighted average of the expected lifetimes shown for each duration 0 through 34—where each duration represents a different attained age. In contrast, aggregate lifetime for attained age 40 is the average of the expected lifetimes for a select 40-year-old at duration 0, select 39-year-old at duration 1,... select 20-year-old at duration 20—all of whom are attained age 40.

G. Probabilities and Absolute Rates

The data for this study were collected in a multiple-decrement environment, however, we explicitly consider only two major decrement classes—death and non-death. The symbol q(d) represents the probability of death in the presence of other decrements. Mathematically, this is represented by:

Image Part 1

=
The probability of death at age x equals the integral from t=0 to t=1 of the probability of surviving under all decrements from age x to x+t times the force of mortality at age x+t

where p(τ) is the probability of surviving under all decrements; and µ(d) is the force of mortality.

For each of the causes of decrement in a multiple-decrement model, it is possible to define a single-decrement model that depends only on a particular cause of decrement. The symbol (d) represents the single-decrement (absolute) rate of death. Mathematically, this is represented by:

Image Part 1

=
The probability of death at age x equals the integral from t=0 to t=1 of the probability of surviving under all decrements from age x to x+t times the force of mortality at age x+t

where (d) is the probability of not dying. In this representation, observation stops at the point of non-death decrement, and scheduled exposure (as previously discussed) is replaced by the smaller quantity of exact exposure. The result is lower exposure totals relative to those used in formulating death probabilities.

Although not presented in this study, absolute rates may be obtained from the death probabilities shown in tables 1A-1B and HIV non-death decrement probabilities. Assuming a constant force of mortality over the age interval (x,x + 1), absolute rates may be derived using the following:

the absolute rate of death equals 1 minus the quantity of 1 minus the probability of termination under all decrements, raised to the quantity of the probability of death divided by the probability of termination under all decrements.

where q(τ) = 1 - p(τ) (all other symbols are as described above).21

Appendix C

Disability Program Overview

A. Definition of Disability

For purposes of entitlement to disability benefits under the DI program, disability is defined as the inability to engage in any substantial gainful activity (SGA) by reason of any medically determinable physical or mental impairment. The impairment must be expected to result in death or to last for a continuous period of at least 12 months.

The formal determination of disability is based on a sequential process defined in regulations. The first step compares actual earnings to a specified level to determine ability to engage in SGA. Absent such actual earnings evidence, the sequential process continues with an evaluation of the nature and severity of the alleged impairment, followed by consideration of age, education, and work experience.

The same definition of disability applies when determining eligibility of adults under the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program as described under title XVI of the Social Security Act. This means-tested cash benefits program is also administered by the Social Security Administration.

Special provisions exist for the evaluation of insured status and disability in cases of statutory blindness.

B. Disability Insured Status and Waiting Period

To be insured for DI benefits, a worker must earn a requisite number of quarters of coverage (QCs) in employment covered by Social Security.22 In addition to earning sufficient QCs to be deemed fully insured 23, the worker must also fulfill a recency-of-work requirement to be deemed disability insured. The number of required recent QCs varies by age, and ranges from 6 out of the last 12 quarters immediately preceding the onset of disability, to 20 out of the last 40. There is no insured status requirement for disability benefits under the SSI program.

There is a required waiting period for DI benefits, which consists of 5 consecutive calendar months beginning with the earliest calendar month throughout which the worker satisfied both the definition of disability and the disability insured requirements. Benefits are not payable during this period. By law, the waiting period is waived for individuals who had a prior period of disability which ended within 5 years of the current period of disability. There is no waiting period for disability benefits under the SSI program.

C. Substantial Gainful Activity (SGA)

Substantial work activity involves the performance of significant physical or mental duties that are productive in nature. Gainful work activity is work performed for pay or profit. The degree to which an impairment limits an individual's ability to perform basic work activities is essential in determining the severity of the disability.

Certain earnings criteria have been established as reasonable indications of whether an individual is engaging in SGA. The dollar amount associated with defining SGA was originally set at $100 at the inception of the DI program. This amount received ad hoc increases from time-to-time, including a 1990 increase to $500 from $300, and a 1999 increase to $700 from $500. Beginning in 2001, the amount has been indexed each year by increases in average wages. As of 2005, an employee earning over $830 per month will ordinarily demonstrate SGA; less than that amount will ordinarily demonstrate lack of SGA.

D. Impairments

To establish the presence of an impairment, an individual must provide a claim with supporting medical evidence of the alleged disability. To determine the severity of the disability, SSA consults the Listing of Impairments, which sets forth the criteria needed to be met by various impairments in order for the claimant to be judged incapable of performing SGA. However, a diagnosis of a listed impairment alone may not be sufficient to establish disability; associated symptoms, clinical signs, and laboratory findings must accompany it.

Many individuals are found to be disabled even though impairments fail to meet the level of severity required in the medical listings. In these instances, vocational factors have been considered along with an individual's medical condition. Age, education, and job skills are given incre