2005 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

VI. APPENDICES
F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections in dollars of the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust Fund. Meaningful comparison of current dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the effect of inflation. Some means of removing inflation is thus generally desirable. Several economic series or indices are provided to allow current dollars to be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other aspects of economic growth during the projection period.

The selection of a particular index for adjustment of current dollars depends upon the analyst's decision as to which index provides the most useful standard for adjusting dollar amounts, over time, to create values that are appropriately comparable. Table VI.F6 presents five such indices for adjustment. Adjustment of any series of values is accomplished by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index values for the year. This adjustment removes the inflation in the index from the series of values.

One of the most common forms of standardization is based on some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. One such price index is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, hereafter referred to as CPI) which is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This is the index used to determine annual increases in OASDI monthly benefits payable after the year of initial eligibility. The CPI is assumed to increase ultimately at annual rates of 1.8, 2.8, and 3.8 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions, respectively. Constant-dollar values (those calculated by dividing by the adjusted CPI in table VI.F6) indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time. Constant-dollar values are provided in table VI.F7.

Another type of standardization combines the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The wage index presented here is the national average wage index, as defined in section 215(i)(1)(G) of the Social Security Act. This index is used to make annual adjustments to many earnings-related quantities embodied in the Social Security Act, such as the contribution and benefit base. The average annual wage is assumed to increase ultimately by 3.4, 3.9, and 4.4 percent under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series relative to the standard-of-living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll index adjusts for the effects of changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to OASDI taxation, adjusted for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. Values adjusted by dividing by the taxable payroll indicate the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of payroll over time.

The GDP index adjusts for the growth in the aggregate amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted by GDP (see appendix VI.F.2) indicate their relative share of the total output of the economy. No explicit assumptions are made about growth in taxable payroll or GDP. These series are computed reflecting the other more basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of adjusting current dollars. The series of interest-rate factors included here is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds for each year. This series is slightly different from the interest rates used to create summarized values elsewhere in this report, where the actual yield on currently-held trust fund assets is used for each year. Ultimate nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, are assumed to be approximately 5.5, 5.8, and 6.0 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.F6.—Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2004-80 

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year
Adjusted
CPI 1
Average
wage index 2
Taxable
payroll 3
Gross
domestic
product
Compound
interest-rate
factor 4
Intermediate:
 
2004
97.89
$35,157.10
$4,501
$11,736
0.9593
 
2005
100.00
36,599.68
4,730
12,359
1.0000
 
2006
102.15
38,137.06
4,985
13,020
1.0517
 
2007
104.81
39,793.49
5,244
13,710
1.1104
 
2008
107.73
41,463.08
5,511
14,424
1.1738
 
2009
110.74
43,155.26
5,784
15,160
1.2407
 
2010
113.85
44,893.85
6,065
15,926
1.3130
 
2011
117.04
46,702.32
6,354
16,721
1.3896
 
2012
120.32
48,631.78
6,646
17,534
1.4706
 
2013
123.69
50,572.35
6,946
18,369
1.5564
 
2014
127.16
52,532.90
7,258
19,232
1.6472
 
 
2015
130.72
54,541.35
7,583
20,127
1.7432
 
2020
150.07
65,840.13
9,391
25,150
2.3145
 
2025
172.29
79,691.99
11,545
31,204
3.0729
 
2030
197.80
96,459.53
14,166
38,644
4.0799
 
2035
227.09
116,905.09
17,418
47,952
5.4169
 
2040
260.71
141,781.99
21,442
59,553
7.1920
 
2045
299.31
171,914.99
26,386
73,937
9.5487
 
2050
343.63
208,270.86
32,374
91,544
12.6778
 
2055
394.51
252,176.38
39,682
113,245
16.8323
 
2060
452.92
305,340.62
48,600
139,983
22.3481
 
2065
519.98
369,738.42
59,520
173,043
29.6715
 
2070
596.97
447,862.37
72,868
213,845
39.3947
 
2075
685.36
542,526.74
89,221
264,319
52.3042
 
2080
786.84
657,144.53
109,174
326,509
69.4440
Low Cost:
 
2004
98.06
35,134.22
4,499
11,730
.9594
 
2005
100.00
36,563.32
4,736
12,365
1.0000
 
2006
101.74
38,029.05
4,990
13,015
1.0496
 
2007
103.57
39,563.07
5,250
13,677
1.1035
 
2008
105.42
41,062.34
5,517
14,366
1.1613
 
2009
107.33
42,565.55
5,788
15,071
1.2231
 
2010
109.26
44,101.67
6,067
15,799
1.2896
 
2011
111.23
45,678.34
6,352
16,552
1.3599
 
2012
113.23
47,325.89
6,633
17,303
1.4352
 
2013
115.28
48,954.25
6,916
18,050
1.5153
 
2014
117.35
50,604.20
7,206
18,812
1.5998
 
 
2015
119.46
52,300.94
7,501
19,599
1.6889
 
2020
130.60
61,627.88
9,121
23,944
2.2153
 
2025
142.79
72,779.82
11,017
29,065
2.9057
 
2030
156.11
85,904.09
13,300
35,259
3.8113
 
2035
170.68
101,531.84
16,129
42,962
4.9991
 
2040
186.60
120,124.63
19,637
52,527
6.5570
 
2045
204.01
142,117.25
23,942
64,311
8.6005
 
2050
223.04
168,062.48
29,169
78,685
11.2809
 
2055
243.85
198,755.21
35,539
96,274
14.7966
 
2060
266.60
235,077.34
43,314
117,833
19.4080
 
2065
291.48
278,079.27
52,868
144,438
25.4565
 
2070
318.67
329,042.59
64,568
177,162
33.3901
 
2075
348.40
389,387.51
78,872
217,350
43.7961
 
2080
380.91
460,704.81
96,265
266,448
57.4452
High Cost:
 
2004
97.40
35,067.38
4,489
11,698
.9641
 
2005
100.00
35,921.47
4,619
12,024
1.0000
 
2006
102.61
37,716.79
4,873
12,743
1.0581
 
2007
105.50
39,428.35
5,117
13,455
1.1198
 
2008
110.12
40,860.58
5,342
14,032
1.1877
 
2009
116.40
43,485.07
5,672
15,019
1.2834
 
2010
122.87
46,602.64
6,102
16,366
1.3973
 
2011
128.63
49,154.43
6,491
17,451
1.4987
 
2012
133.70
51,426.51
6,841
18,382
1.5927
 
2013
138.78
53,679.36
7,180
19,334
1.6897
 
2014
144.05
55,992.55
7,526
20,340
1.7926
 
 
2015
149.52
58,408.36
7,895
21,391
1.9017
 
2020
180.17
72,262.69
9,987
27,419
2.5558
 
2025
217.11
89,681.30
12,543
34,902
3.4348
 
2030
261.61
111,347.32
15,705
44,304
4.6160
 
2035
315.24
138,391.35
19,653
56,199
6.2036
 
2040
379.87
172,065.34
24,531
71,099
8.3371
 
2045
457.74
213,796.38
30,534
89,713
11.2043
 
2050
551.58
265,329.62
37,811
112,658
15.0576
 
2055
664.65
328,881.66
46,678
141,075
20.2362
 
2060
800.90
407,549.67
57,510
176,324
27.1958
 
2065
965.08
504,898.52
70,665
219,808
36.5489
 
2070
1,162.93
625,883.88
86,779
273,874
49.1186
 
2075
1,401.33
775,802.04
106,419
340,772
66.0113
 
2080
1,688.60
961,844.29
130,479
423,931
88.7137

1The adjusted CPI is the CPI-W indexed to calendar year 2005.

2The average wage index is used to automatically adjust the contribution and benefit base and other wage-indexed program amounts. (See "Average wage index" in the glossary.)

3Taxable payroll consists of total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to include deemed wages based on military service through calendar year 2001 and to reflect the lower effective contribution rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages."

4The compound interest-rate factor is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the year, under each alternative.

Table VI.F7 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in constant 2005 dollars (i.e., adjusted by the CPI indexing series as discussed above). Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. Income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, income from taxation of benefits, and miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the OASI and DI Trust Funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. These estimates are based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions.

Table VI.F7.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Constant 2005 Dollars,1 Calendar Years 2005-80 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2005
$596.1
$93.8
$689.9
$526.6
$1,850.1
 
2006
621.5
98.7
720.3
536.7
1,994.7
 
2007
636.4
106.0
742.4
547.7
2,138.8
 
2008
652.3
114.1
766.4
562.1
2,285.1
 
2009
665.1
122.2
787.4
581.1
2,429.3
 
2010
679.6
130.7
810.3
599.4
2,573.8
 
2011
695.7
139.5
835.2
620.1
2,718.6
 
2012
709.9
147.9
857.8
644.6
2,857.8
 
2013
723.0
156.2
879.1
670.1
2,989.0
 
2014
735.6
164.0
899.6
697.1
3,110.0
 
 
2015
748.8
172.1
920.8
724.5
3,221.6
 
2020
813.7
201.9
1,015.6
877.9
3,584.0
 
2025
877.4
199.6
1,077.0
1,041.7
3,489.8
 
2030
943.1
166.6
1,109.7
1,199.0
2,847.2
 
2035
1,013.6
104.0
1,117.7
1,332.6
1,689.2
 
2040 2
1,088.3
17.0
1,105.3
1,440.8
104.6
Low Cost:
 
2005
596.0
93.8
689.8
525.0
1,851.6
 
2006
625.0
98.8
723.8
534.8
2,009.0
 
2007
644.5
106.0
750.5
546.5
2,177.4
 
2008
666.9
114.4
781.3
560.0
2,360.5
 
2009
686.2
123.6
809.7
577.6
2,550.7
 
2010
707.5
133.6
841.1
595.0
2,751.6
 
2011
730.5
144.7
875.1
614.9
2,963.1
 
2012
751.3
156.3
907.5
638.4
3,179.9
 
2013
770.4
168.6
939.0
663.4
3,399.2
 
2014
789.1
181.0
970.1
689.9
3,619.5
 
 
2015
807.9
194.1
1,002.0
718.5
3,839.0
 
2020
904.0
257.9
1,161.9
882.2
4,882.2
 
2025
1,004.2
304.6
1,308.8
1,062.1
5,724.7
 
2030
1,113.3
337.8
1,451.2
1,239.5
6,317.4
 
2035
1,237.3
361.7
1,599.0
1,398.7
6,750.5
 
2040
1,377.6
385.8
1,763.4
1,536.5
7,205.3
 
2045
1,535.3
417.7
1,953.0
1,682.1
7,811.6
 
2050
1,710.4
458.9
2,169.3
1,849.7
8,593.6
 
2055
1,906.1
509.2
2,415.2
2,049.4
9,539.5
 
2060
2,125.1
567.1
2,692.2
2,278.3
10,627.1
 
2065
2,372.5
633.9
3,006.5
2,534.4
11,884.5
 
2070
2,650.1
711.9
3,362.0
2,817.5
13,354.2
 
2075
2,960.5
804.2
3,764.7
3,133.9
15,093.5
 
2080
3,305.5
911.0
4,216.5
3,500.8
17,100.6
High Cost:
 
2005
588.2
92.2
680.4
529.7
1,837.5
 
2006
598.6
96.1
694.7
543.0
1,942.5
 
2007
618.0
102.8
720.8
557.9
2,052.0
 
2008
619.9
108.3
728.3
567.2
2,127.1
 
2009
620.8
115.5
736.3
582.2
2,166.4
 
2010
634.7
128.4
763.1
602.3
2,213.1
 
2011
648.2
136.1
784.3
627.6
2,270.7
 
2012
659.3
140.1
799.4
655.7
2,328.3
 
2013
668.2
142.9
811.1
680.5
2,373.6
 
2014
675.7
145.2
820.9
706.5
2,401.4
 
 
2015
684.1
145.1
829.2
731.5
2,411.1
 
2020
724.5
127.9
852.4
868.9
2,143.4
 
2025 2
761.4
81.8
843.1
1,011.4
1,284.1

1The adjustment from current to constant dollars is by the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

2Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2041 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Figure VI.F1 provides a comparison of annual cost with total annual income (including interest) and annual income excluding interest, for the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions. All values are expressed in constant dollars, as shown in table VI.F7. The difference between the income values for each year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. Thus the figure illustrates the fact that, under intermediate assumptions, combined OASDI cost will be payable from (1) current tax income alone through 2016, (2) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are less than annual interest income for years 2017 through 2026, and (3) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are greater than annual interest income for years 2027 through 2040, i.e., through the year preceding the year of trust fund exhaustion.

Figure VI.F1.—Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

[D]

Table VI.F8 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in current dollars—that is in dollars unadjusted for price inflation. Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. These estimates, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions, are presented to facilitate independent analysis.

Table VI.F8.—Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2005-80 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2005
$596.1
$93.8
$689.9
$526.6
$1,850.1
 
2006
634.9
100.8
735.8
548.2
2,037.7
 
2007
667.0
111.1
778.1
574.1
2,241.7
 
2008
702.7
122.9
825.6
605.5
2,461.8
 
2009
736.6
135.4
871.9
643.5
2,690.2
 
2010
773.8
148.7
922.5
682.4
2,930.3
 
2011
814.3
163.2
977.5
725.8
3,182.0
 
2012
854.1
178.0
1,032.1
775.6
3,438.6
 
2013
894.3
193.1
1,087.4
828.9
3,697.1
 
2014
935.4
208.5
1,143.9
886.4
3,954.6
 
 
2015
978.7
224.9
1,203.7
947.1
4,211.1
 
2020
1,221.2
303.0
1,524.2
1,317.5
5,378.5
 
2025
1,511.7
343.9
1,855.5
1,794.8
6,012.6
 
2030
1,865.6
329.4
2,195.0
2,371.7
5,631.9
 
2035
2,301.8
236.3
2,538.1
3,026.1
3,836.0
 
2040 1
2,837.3
44.3
2,881.6
3,756.2
272.7
Low Cost:
 
2005
596.0
93.8
689.8
525.0
1,851.6
 
2006
635.8
100.5
736.4
544.1
2,043.9
 
2007
667.5
109.8
777.3
566.0
2,255.2
 
2008
703.0
120.6
823.7
590.4
2,488.5
 
2009
736.5
132.6
869.1
620.0
2,737.6
 
2010
773.0
146.0
919.0
650.2
3,006.5
 
2011
812.5
160.9
973.4
684.0
3,296.0
 
2012
850.7
177.0
1,027.7
722.9
3,600.7
 
2013
888.1
194.4
1,082.5
764.7
3,918.5
 
2014
926.0
212.4
1,138.4
809.6
4,247.4
.
 
2015
965.1
231.9
1,197.0
858.4
4,586.0
 
2020
1,180.6
336.8
1,517.4
1,152.1
6,376.4
 
2025
1,433.9
434.9
1,868.8
1,516.5
8,174.2
 
2030
1,738.0
527.4
2,265.4
1,935.0
9,862.1
 
2035
2,111.7
617.4
2,729.1
2,387.2
11,521.5
 
2040
2,570.6
720.0
3,290.5
2,867.0
13,445.0
 
2045
3,132.2
852.1
3,984.4
3,431.6
15,936.5
 
2050
3,814.9
1,023.7
4,838.5
4,125.6
19,167.4
 
2055
4,648.0
1,241.6
5,889.6
4,997.5
23,262.3
 
2060
5,665.7
1,511.8
7,177.5
6,074.0
28,332.1
 
2065
6,915.4
1,847.7
8,763.2
7,387.2
34,640.8
 
2070
8,445.2
2,268.6
10,713.8
8,978.7
42,556.1
 
2075
10,314.6
2,801.7
13,116.3
10,918.6
52,586.2
 
2080
12,590.9
3,470.1
16,061.0
13,335.1
65,137.6
High Cost:
 
2005
588.2
92.2
680.4
529.7
1,837.5
 
2006
614.2
98.6
712.8
557.1
1,993.1
 
2007
652.0
108.4
760.5
588.6
2,165.0
 
2008
682.6
119.3
802.0
624.6
2,342.3
 
2009
722.6
134.5
857.1
677.7
2,521.7
 
2010
779.8
157.8
937.6
740.1
2,719.2
 
2011
833.8
175.1
1,008.9
807.3
2,920.8
 
2012
881.5
187.2
1,068.7
876.6
3,112.9
 
2013
927.3
198.4
1,125.7
944.4
3,294.2
 
2014
973.4
209.1
1,182.5
1,017.6
3,459.1
 
 
2015
1,022.9
216.9
1,239.8
1,093.7
3,605.1
 
2020
1,305.3
230.5
1,535.8
1,565.5
3,861.8
 
2025 1
1,653.0
177.5
1,830.5
2,195.9
2,787.9

1Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2041 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F9 shows, in current dollars, estimated income (excluding interest) and estimated total cost (excluding the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances) of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report. For OASDI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, and miscellaneous transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment) and proceeds from the taxation of OASDI benefits. Total cost consists of outlays (scheduled benefits and administrative expenses) for insured beneficiaries. Income and cost estimates are shown on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

Table VI.F9 also shows the difference between income excluding interest and cost, which is called the balance. The balance indicates the size of the difference between tax income and cost.

Table VI.F9.—OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and
Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2005-80 

[In billions]

Calendar
year
OASDI
 
HI
 
Combined
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Intermediate:
 
2005
$596
$527
$69
 
$179
$179
1/
 
$775
$706
$69
 
2006
635
548
87
 
190
191
-$1
 
825
739
85
 
2007
667
574
93
 
201
203
-2
 
868
777
91
 
2008
703
606
97
 
213
216
-3
 
916
822
94
 
2009
737
643
93
 
223
230
-7
 
960
873
87
 
2010
774
682
91
 
235
245
-9
 
1,009
927
82
 
2011
814
726
88
 
249
261
-12
 
1,064
987
77
 
2012
854
776
79
 
263
279
-17
 
1,117
1,055
62
 
2013
894
829
65
 
276
299
-23
 
1,171
1,128
43
 
2014
935
886
49
 
290
319
-30
 
1,225
1,206
19
 
 
2015
979
947
32
 
304
342
-39
 
1,282
1,289
-7
 
2020
1,221
1,318
-96
 
382
487
-104
 
1,603
1,804
-201
 
2025
1,512
1,795
-283
 
477
700
-223
 
1,989
2,495
-506
 
2030
1,866
2,372
-506
 
593
995
-402
 
2,458
3,366
-908
 
2035
2,302
3,026
-724
 
734
1,392
-658
 
3,036
4,418
-1,382
 
2040
2,837
3,756
-919
 
906
1,896
-989
 
3,744
5,652
-1,908
 
2045
3,494
4,630
-1,137
 
1,116
2,532
-1,415
 
4,610
7,162
-2,552
 
2050
4,290
5,712
-1,422
 
1,372
3,339
-1,967
 
5,662
9,051
-3,389
 
2055
5,264
7,081
-1,816
 
1,686
4,393
-2,707
 
6,950
11,474
-4,524
 
2060
6,456
8,799
-2,343
 
2,071
5,812
-3,741
 
8,527
14,610
-6,083
 
2065
7,918
10,950
-3,032
 
2,544
7,714
-5,170
 
10,462
18,664
-8,202
 
2070
9,707
13,608
-3,901
 
3,124
10,258
-7,134
 
12,831
23,866
-11,035
 
2075
11,897
16,862
-4,964
 
3,834
13,576
-9,742
 
15,732
30,438
-14,706
 
2080
14,573
20,879
-6,306
 
4,703
17,902
-13,200
 
19,275
38,781
-19,506
Low Cost:
 
2005
596
525
71
 
179
174
5
 
775
699
75
 
2006
636
544
92
 
190
183
7
 
826
727
99
 
2007
667
566
101
 
200
190
10
 
868
756
111
 
2008
703
590
113
 
212
199
14
 
915
789
126
 
2009
736
620
117
 
222
207
15
 
958
827
132
 
2010
773
650
123
 
233
216
17
 
1,006
866
140
 
2011
813
684
129
 
247
225
21
 
1,059
909
150
 
2012
851
723
128
 
259
236
23
 
1,110
959
151
 
2013
888
765
123
 
271
247
24
 
1,159
1,012
147
 
2014
926
810
116
 
283
258
25
 
1,209
1,067
142
 
 
2015
965
858
107
 
296
270
25
 
1,261
1,129
132
 
2020
1,181
1,152
29
 
364
342
22
 
1,545
1,494
51
 
2025
1,434
1,517
-83
 
445
438
7
 
1,879
1,955
-76
 
2030
1,738
1,935
-197
 
542
556
-14
 
2,280
2,492
-211
 
2035
2,112
2,387
-275
 
660
703
-42
 
2,772
3,090
-318
 
2040
2,571
2,867
-296
 
803
885
-81
 
3,374
3,752
-378
 
2045
3,132
3,432
-299
 
978
1,118
-140
 
4,110
4,549
-439
 
2050
3,815
4,126
-311
 
1,191
1,427
-237
 
5,005
5,553
-547
 
2055
4,648
4,997
-349
 
1,450
1,855
-404
 
6,098
6,852
-754
 
2060
5,666
6,074
-408
 
1,768
2,441
-673
 
7,434
8,515
-1,081
 
2065
6,915
7,387
-472
 
2,158
3,229
-1,071
 
9,074
10,616
-1,542
 
2070
8,445
8,979
-533
 
2,635
4,283
-1,647
 
11,080
13,261
-2,181
 
2075
10,315
10,919
-604
 
3,218
5,653
-2,435
 
13,533
16,572
-3,039
 
2080
12,591
13,335
-744
 
3,929
7,434
-3,505
 
16,520
20,769
-4,249
High Cost:
 
 
 
 
 
2005
588
530
58
 
174
183
-10
 
762
713
49
 
2006
614
557
57
 
186
200
-14
 
800
757
43
 
2007
652
589
63
 
197
216
-19
 
849
805
44
 
2008
683
625
58
 
207
234
-26
 
890
858
32
 
2009
723
678
45
 
221
257
-36
 
943
935
8
 
2010
780
740
40
 
241
287
-46
 
1,021
1,027
-6
 
2011
834
807
27
 
259
317
-58
 
1,093
1,124
-31
 
2012
881
877
5
 
274
347
-73
 
1,156
1,224
-68
 
2013
927
944
-17
 
290
381
-91
 
1,217
1,325
-108
 
2014
973
1,018
-44
 
305
416
-111
 
1,279
1,434
-155
 
 
2015
1,023
1,094
-71
 
322
456
-135
 
1,344
1,550
-206
 
2020
1,305
1,566
-260
 
415
729
-314
 
1,720
2,295
-575
 
2025
1,653
2,196
-543
 
530
1,178
-648
 
2,183
3,374
-1,191
 
2030
2,086
3,005
-919
 
674
1,880
-1,206
 
2,760
4,885
-2,125
 
2035
2,624
3,975
-1,351
 
854
2,922
-2,069
 
3,477
6,897
-3,420
 
2040
3,286
5,118
-1,832
 
1,073
4,314
-3,242
 
4,359
9,432
-5,074
 
2045
4,100
6,529
-2,429
 
1,342
6,103
-4,761
 
5,442
12,632
-7,190
 
2050
5,091
8,306
-3,215
 
1,671
8,331
-6,660
 
6,762
16,637
-9,875
 
2055
6,304
10,586
-4,282
 
2,077
11,108
-9,031
 
8,381
21,694
-13,312
 
2060
7,795
13,505
-5,710
 
2,578
14,786
-12,208
 
10,373
28,291
-17,918
 
2065
9,615
17,249
-7,633
 
3,194
19,697
-16,503
 
12,809
36,945
-24,136
 
2070
11,854
21,976
-10,122
 
3,955
26,281
-22,326
 
15,809
48,257
-32,448
 
2075
14,587
27,840
-13,252
 
4,886
34,845
-29,959
 
19,473
62,685
-43,211
 
2080
17,939
35,095
-17,156
 
6,030
46,052
-40,022
 
23,970
81,147
-57,178

1Between -$500 million and $500 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F10 shows projected future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at either the normal retirement age (NRA) or age 65, for workers attaining age 65 in 2005 and subsequent years. Illustrative benefit levels are shown for workers with four separate pre-retirement earnings patterns. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions in this report. The benefit amounts are shown in constant 2005 dollars (adjusted to 2005 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6). Benefit amounts are also shown as percentages of the general, career-average relative earnings level for each case, wage indexed to the year prior to retirement. These percentages thus represent the benefit "replacement rate" of the career-average level of earnings.

The normal retirement age is 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000 and is scheduled to increase to age 66 during the period 2000-05 (at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attain age 62) and to age 67 during the period 2017-22 (also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62). Thus, for illustrative cases attaining age 65 after 2002, benefit levels shown for retirement at 65 are lower than the levels shown for retirement at NRA, primarily because of the actuarial reduction for "early" (pre-NRA) retirement.

Four different pre-retirement earnings patterns are represented in table VI.F10. Three of these patterns are for workers with scaled-earnings patterns,1 reflecting low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fourth case is the steady maximum earner. The three scaled-earnings cases have earnings patterns that reflect differences by age in the probability of work and in average earnings levels experienced by insured workers during the period 1991-2001. The general, career-average level of earnings for the scaled cases is set relative to the national average wage index (AWI) so that benefit levels are consistent with levels for "steady-earnings" cases that were shown in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. For the scaled medium earner, the general, career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI. For the scaled low and high earners, the general, career-average earnings level is set at about 45 percent and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively. The steady maximum earner is assumed to have earnings at (or above) the OASDI contribution and benefit base for each year prior to retirement starting at age 22.

As noted above, the scaled-earnings cases were constructed so that their career-average earnings levels are consistent with those of the corresponding steady low, average, and high earners that were illustrated in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. As a result, values in this table for benefits under the present-law Social Security benefit formula are essentially comparable to those in earlier reports. Scaled-earnings cases are now being used instead of steady-earnings cases because they more accurately illustrate the differences in benefit levels under the wide variety of reform proposals considered in recent years.

Table VI.F10.—Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts1 for Retired Workers
With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on
Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2005-80 
Year attain age 65 2
 
Retirement at normal retirement age
 
Retirement at age 65
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2005
dollars 3
Percent of earnings
Age at retirement
Constant
2005
dollars3
Percent of earnings
Scaled low earnings:4
 
2005
 
65:6
$9,305
58.3
 
65:0
$9,003
56.9
 
2010
 
66:0
9,516
55.1
 
65:0
8,885
52.1
 
2015
 
66:0
10,177
55.7
 
65:0
9,496
52.5
 
2020
 
66:2
10,774
56.0
 
65:0
9,931
52.2
 
2025
 
67:0
11,329
55.4
 
65:0
9,816
49.0
 
2030
 
67:0
11,945
55.4
 
65:0
10,350
49.0
 
2035
 
67:0
12,590
55.3
 
65:0
10,911
48.9
 
2040
 
67:0
13,298
55.3
 
65:0
11,520
48.9
 
2045
 
67:0
14,047
55.3
 
65:0
12,172
48.9
 
2050
 
67:0
14,835
55.4
 
65:0
12,857
49.0
 
2055
 
67:0
15,654
55.4
 
65:0
13,564
49.0
 
2060
 
67:0
16,510
55.4
 
65:0
14,309
49.0
 
2065
 
67:0
17,412
55.4
 
65:0
15,091
49.0
 
2070
 
67:0
18,368
55.3
 
65:0
15,917
49.0
 
2075
 
67:0
19,379
55.3
 
65:0
16,795
49.0
 
2080
 
67:0
20,448
55.3
 
65:0
17,722
49.0
Scaled medium earnings:5
 
2005
 
65:6
15,335
43.2
 
65:0
14,833
42.2
 
2010
 
66:0
15,692
40.9
 
65:0
14,643
38.6
 
2015
 
66:0
16,774
41.3
 
65:0
15,652
38.9
 
2020
 
66:2
17,752
41.5
 
65:0
16,366
38.7
 
2025
 
67:0
18,662
41.1
 
65:0
16,175
36.3
 
2030
 
67:0
19,679
41.1
 
65:0
17,056
36.3
 
2035
 
67:0
20,745
41.0
 
65:0
17,977
36.3
 
2040
 
67:0
21,907
41.0
 
65:0
18,985
36.3
 
2045
 
67:0
23,139
41.0
 
65:0
20,056
36.3
 
2050
 
67:0
24,440
41.0
 
65:0
21,180
36.3
 
2055
 
67:0
25,789
41.1
 
65:0
22,351
36.3
 
2060
 
67:0
27,200
41.0
 
65:0
23,574
36.3
 
2065
 
67:0
28,687
41.0
 
65:0
24,862
36.3
 
2070
 
67:0
30,257
41.0
 
65:0
26,223
36.3
 
2075
 
67:0
31,925
41.0
 
65:0
27,667
36.3
 
2080
 
67:0
33,686
41.0
 
65:0
29,194
36.3
Scaled high earnings:6
 
2005
 
65:6
20,222
36.1
 
65:0
19,568
35.3
 
2010
 
66:0
20,800
33.9
 
65:0
19,418
32.0
 
2015
 
66:0
22,243
34.3
 
65:0
20,759
32.3
 
2020
 
66:2
23,538
34.4
 
65:0
21,704
32.1
 
2025
 
67:0
24,746
34.0
 
65:0
21,446
30.1
 
2030
 
67:0
26,095
34.0
 
65:0
22,615
30.1
 
2035
 
67:0
27,511
34.0
 
65:0
23,840
30.1
 
2040
 
67:0
29,044
34.0
 
65:0
25,171
30.1
 
2045
 
67:0
30,683
34.0
 
65:0
26,590
30.1
 
2050
 
67:0
32,403
34.0
 
65:0
28,083
30.1
 
2055
 
67:0
34,193
34.0
 
65:0
29,635
30.1
 
2060
 
67:0
36,063
34.0
 
65:0
31,254
30.1
 
2065
 
67:0
38,036
34.0
 
65:0
32,962
30.1
 
2070
 
67:0
40,116
34.0
 
65:0
34,768
30.1
 
2075
 
67:0
42,327
34.0
 
65:0
36,683
30.1
 
2080
 
67:0
44,662
34.0
 
65:0
38,707
30.1
Steady maximum earnings: 7
 
2005
 
65:6
23,285
30.1
 
65:0
22,525
29.7
 
2010
 
66:0
24,839
27.8
 
65:0
22,999
26.3
 
2015
 
66:0
27,050
27.6
 
65:0
25,111
26.0
 
2020
 
66:2
28,764
27.6
 
65:0
26,433
25.7
 
2025
 
67:0
30,441
27.3
 
65:0
26,186
24.0
 
2030
 
67:0
32,125
27.3
 
65:0
27,649
24.0
 
2035
 
67:0
33,881
27.2
 
65:0
29,158
23.9
 
2040
 
67:0
35,737
27.2
 
65:0
30,758
23.9
 
2045
 
67:0
37,756
27.2
 
65:0
32,498
23.9
 
2050
 
67:0
39,809
27.3
 
65:0
34,268
24.0
 
2055
 
67:0
42,012
27.3
 
65:0
36,162
24.0
 
2060
 
67:0
44,308
27.3
 
65:0
38,143
24.0
 
2065
 
67:0
46,728
27.3
 
65:0
40,223
24.0
 
2070
 
67:0
49,285
27.3
 
65:0
42,424
24.0
 
2075
 
67:0
51,999
27.3
 
65:0
44,761
24.0
 
2080
 
67:0
54,866
27.3
 
65:0
47,229
24.0

1Annual scheduled benefit amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

2Assumed to attain age 65 in January of the year.

3The adjustment for constant dollars is made using the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

4Career-average earnings at about 45 percent of the national average wage index (AWI).

5Career-average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

6Career-average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

7Earnings for each year equal to the OASDI contribution and benefit base.


1More details are provided on scaled-earnings patterns in the Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 2004.3, located at the following internet address: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2004-3.html.


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