2004 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

VI. APPENDICES
F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections in dollars of the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust Fund. It provides the means to track the progress of the funds during the projection period. Meaningful comparison of current dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the tendency toward inflation. Some means of removing inflation is thus generally desirable. Several economic series or indices are provided to allow current dollars to be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other aspects of economic growth during the projection period.

The selection of a particular index for adjustment of current dollars depends upon the analyst's decision as to which index provides the most useful standard for adjusting dollar amounts, over time, to create values that are appropriately comparable. Table VI.F7 presents five such indices for adjustment. Adjustment of any series of values is accomplished by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index values for the year. This adjustment removes the inflation in the index from the series of values.

One of the most common forms of standardization is based on some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. One such price index is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, hereafter referred to as CPI) which is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This is the index used to determine annual increases in OASDI monthly benefits payable after the year of initial eligibility. The CPI is assumed to increase ultimately at annual rates of 1.8, 2.8, and 3.8 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions, respectively. Constant-dollar values (those calculated by dividing by the adjusted CPI in table VI.F7) indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time. Constant-dollar values are provided in table VI.F8.

Another type of standardization combines the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The wage index presented here is the SSA average wage index, as defined in section 215(i)(1)(G) of the Social Security Act. This index is used to make annual adjustments to many earnings-related quantities embodied in the Social Security Act, such as the contribution and benefit base. The average annual wage is assumed to increase ultimately by 3.4, 3.9, and 4.4 percent under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series relative to the standard-of-living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll index adjusts for the effects of changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to OASDI taxation, adjusted for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. Values adjusted by dividing by the taxable payroll indicate the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of payroll over time.

The GDP index adjusts for the growth in the aggregate amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted by GDP (see appendix VI.F.2) indicate their relative share of the total output of the economy. No explicit assumptions are made about growth in taxable payroll or GDP. These series are computed reflecting the other more basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of adjusting current dollars. The series of interest-rate factors included here is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds for each year. This series is slightly different from the interest rates used to create summarized values elsewhere in this report, where the actual yield on currently-held trust fund assets is used for each year. Ultimate nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, are assumed to be approximately 5.5, 5.8, and 6.0 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.F7.--Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2003-80

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year
Adjusted
CPI 1
SSA average
wage index 2
Taxable
payroll 3
Gross
domestic
product
Compound
interest-rate
factor 4
Intermediate:
 
2003
98.80
$33,892.68
$4,339
$10,937
0.9570
 
2004
100.00
35,057.39
4,522
11,544
1.0000
 
2005
101.50
36,507.12
4,762
12,090
1.0484
 
2006
103.50
37,907.81
4,999
12,675
1.1029
 
2007
106.04
39,401.57
5,244
13,321
1.1654
 
2008
108.97
41,021.30
5,502
14,025
1.2347
 
2009
112.02
42,671.44
5,770
14,754
1.3083
 
2010
115.17
44,382.24
6,047
15,508
1.3863
 
2011
118.39
46,142.89
6,331
16,281
1.4689
 
2012
121.71
47,988.47
6,614
17,068
1.5546
 
2013
125.11
49,850.13
6,901
17,872
1.6453
 
 
2015
132.21
53,755.86
7,534
19,572
1.8428
 
2020
151.79
64,942.15
9,329
24,438
2.4467
 
2025
174.26
78,577.54
11,453
30,273
3.2485
 
2030
200.06
95,128.18
14,050
37,478
4.3130
 
2035
229.68
115,266.62
17,272
46,495
5.7263
 
2040
263.69
139,759.03
21,267
57,758
7.6028
 
2045
302.74
169,404.03
26,170
71,708
10.0942
 
2050
347.56
205,167.59
32,116
88,807
13.4020
 
2055
399.02
248,409.23
39,359
109,843
17.7938
 
2060
458.10
300,759.84
48,202
135,775
23.6248
 
2065
525.93
364,183.30
59,018
167,802
31.3665
 
2070
603.80
441,048.16
72,299
207,504
41.6452
 
2075
693.20
534,183.50
88,538
256,526
55.2921
 
2080
795.83
646,891.04
108,342
316,891
73.4111
Low Cost:
 
2003
98.97
33,898.38
4,342
10,949
.9573
 
2004
100.00
35,095.01
4,543
11,582
1.0000
 
2005
101.10
36,486.05
4,785
12,118
1.0469
 
2006
102.42
37,797.83
5,029
12,703
1.0987
 
2007
104.13
39,167.07
5,277
13,335
1.1575
 
2008
106.00
40,581.39
5,534
13,996
1.2209
 
2009
107.91
42,000.28
5,795
14,673
1.2889
 
2010
109.86
43,476.39
6,063
15,372
1.3608
 
2011
111.83
44,981.88
6,338
16,090
1.4367
 
2012
113.85
46,534.65
6,595
16,764
1.5168
 
2013
115.90
48,140.26
6,842
17,422
1.6014
 
 
2015
120.11
51,429.98
7,418
18,912
1.7849
 
2020
131.31
60,652.38
9,023
23,099
2.3412
 
2025
143.56
71,596.36
10,898
28,029
3.0708
 
2030
156.96
84,520.58
13,167
34,027
4.0278
 
2035
171.60
99,879.20
15,982
41,492
5.2831
 
2040
187.61
118,140.73
19,476
50,779
6.9296
 
2045
205.12
139,732.89
23,761
62,209
9.0892
 
2050
224.25
165,247.99
28,961
76,145
11.9218
 
2055
245.18
195,436.36
35,283
93,162
15.6373
 
2060
268.05
231,135.56
43,002
114,028
20.5107
 
2065
293.06
273,373.40
52,499
139,809
26.9029
 
2070
320.40
323,381.16
64,149
171,572
35.2872
 
2075
350.29
382,549.77
78,370
210,526
46.2844
 
2080
382.98
452,452.49
95,646
258,071
60.7090
High Cost:
 
2003
97.54
33,909.16
4,340
10,935
.9568
 
2004
100.00
34,689.53
4,454
11,381
1.0000
 
2005
102.57
36,681.63
4,725
12,062
1.0615
 
2006
104.89
38,198.10
4,962
12,697
1.1206
 
2007
108.84
39,367.07
5,163
13,181
1.1841
 
2008
114.66
41,635.34
5,448
14,075
1.2770
 
2009
121.00
44,708.10
5,867
15,336
1.3916
 
2010
126.67
47,176.90
6,240
16,354
1.4937
 
2011
131.66
49,289.76
6,581
17,235
1.5875
 
2012
136.66
51,481.02
6,918
18,177
1.6842
 
2013
141.86
53,687.37
7,263
19,191
1.7868
 
 
2015
152.85
58,448.97
7,996
21,230
2.0110
 
2020
184.18
72,375.61
10,110
27,185
2.7027
 
2025
221.93
89,807.59
12,663
34,502
3.6321
 
2030
267.43
111,528.28
15,827
43,713
4.8813
 
2035
322.25
138,589.64
19,770
55,354
6.5600
 
2040
388.32
172,247.21
24,662
69,987
8.8161
 
2045
467.92
213,952.21
30,649
88,180
11.8482
 
2050
563.84
265,336.92
37,964
110,773
15.9229
 
2055
679.43
328,834.68
46,835
138,621
21.3991
 
2060
818.71
407,407.31
57,695
173,235
28.7586
 
2065
986.55
504,783.62
70,906
215,997
38.6492
 
2070
1,188.79
625,782.24
87,101
269,207
51.9412
 
2075
1,432.49
775,778.45
106,850
335,075
69.8047
 
2080
1,726.15
961,786.66
131,071
417,043
93.8117

1The adjusted CPI is the CPI-W indexed to calendar year 2004.

2The SSA average wage index is used to automatically adjust the contribution and benefit base and other wage-indexed program amounts. (See "Average wage index" in the glossary.)

3Taxable payroll consists of total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to include deemed wages based on military service through calendar year 2001 and to reflect the lower effective contribution rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages."

4The compound interest-rate factor is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the year, under each alternative.

Table VI.F8 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in constant 2004 dollars (i.e., adjusted by the CPI indexing series as discussed above). Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. Income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, income from taxation of benefits, and miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the OASI and DI Trust Funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. These estimates are based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions.

Table VI.F8.--Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Constant 2004 Dollars,1 Calendar Years 2004-80

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2004
564.7
88.9
653.7
500.3
1,684.1
 
2005
596.3
94.1
690.4
509.9
1,839.8
 
2006
613.1
100.5
713.5
520.0
1,997.6
 
2007
629.4
108.5
737.9
531.4
2,156.4
 
2008
644.2
118.0
762.1
545.1
2,315.4
 
2009
656.4
127.6
784.1
563.9
2,472.6
 
2010
670.3
137.1
807.4
581.8
2,630.6
 
2011
685.7
146.9
832.6
601.4
2,790.2
 
2012
698.9
156.1
855.0
624.7
2,944.4
 
2013
710.6
164.8
875.4
648.7
3,091.0
 
 
2015
736.0
182.6
918.7
701.0
3,359.8
 
2020
799.7
214.0
1,013.7
856.0
3,805.2
 
2025
861.4
215.2
1,076.6
1,022.7
3,772.8
 
2030
925.8
185.2
1,111.0
1,181.6
3,184.0
 
2035
995.0
124.9
1,119.9
1,320.2
2,061.9
 
2040 2
1,068.6
38.5
1,107.1
1,432.6
485.2
Low Cost:
 
2004
565.9
89.0
654.9
498.8
1,686.8
 
2005
603.0
94.5
697.5
508.2
1,857.9
 
2006
623.0
101.4
724.4
517.7
2,040.7
 
2007
644.6
110.0
754.7
528.4
2,233.4
 
2008
665.3
120.2
785.5
541.6
2,437.9
 
2009
683.6
131.3
814.9
558.9
2,650.8
 
2010
703.4
143.1
846.5
575.8
2,874.5
 
2011
725.2
155.6
880.8
594.1
3,110.4
 
2012
743.3
168.5
911.8
616.3
3,350.9
 
2013
758.6
181.7
940.3
639.2
3,592.7
 
 
2015
795.2
209.6
1,004.7
694.7
4,078.0
 
2020
890.1
275.9
1,166.0
861.6
5,227.4
 
2025
988.9
327.4
1,316.2
1,044.7
6,157.8
 
2030
1,097.3
365.5
1,462.7
1,224.0
6,841.6
 
2035
1,220.6
393.8
1,614.4
1,389.7
7,355.6
 
2040
1,360.4
421.2
1,781.6
1,532.5
7,869.5
 
2045
1,517.1
455.7
1,972.8
1,679.8
8,524.8
 
2050
1,690.6
499.6
2,190.2
1,847.4
9,356.6
 
2055
1,883.9
552.1
2,436.0
2,049.6
10,342.7
 
2060
2,100.5
611.3
2,711.8
2,279.9
11,453.0
 
2065
2,345.5
678.7
3,024.2
2,535.5
12,720.2
 
2070
2,620.8
757.3
3,378.1
2,816.0
14,201.2
 
2075
2,928.2
849.8
3,778.0
3,133.5
15,942.9
 
2080
3,269.3
955.3
4,224.5
3,503.4
17,921.2
High Cost:
 
2004
559.8
88.3
648.1
503.1
1,675.8
 
2005
582.4
94.4
676.8
517.7
1,792.9
 
2006
601.5
101.3
702.7
534.0
1,922.0
 
2007
604.9
106.1
711.0
541.7
2,021.5
 
2008
606.5
113.5
719.9
551.5
2,087.3
 
2009
618.9
127.3
746.2
571.5
2,152.7
 
2010
630.2
136.2
766.3
592.9
2,229.8
 
2011
642.5
141.2
783.7
615.6
2,313.3
 
2012
652.7
145.0
797.6
638.9
2,387.4
 
2013
661.5
148.7
810.2
661.7
2,448.4
 
 
2015
678.2
151.0
829.2
710.4
2,521.3
 
2020
718.0
138.5
856.5
852.5
2,332.7
 
2025
752.9
95.2
848.1
1,002.1
1,519.0
 
2030 2
787.1
11.8
799.0
1,142.6
10.6

1The adjustment from current to constant dollars is by the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7.

2Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2042 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Figure VI.F1 provides a comparison of annual cost with total annual income (including interest) and annual income excluding interest, for the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions. All values are expressed in constant dollars, as shown in table VI.F8. The difference between the income values for each year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. Thus the figure illustrates the fact that, under intermediate assumptions, combined OASDI cost will be payable from (1) current tax income alone through 2017, (2) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are less than annual interest income for years 2018 through 2027, and (3) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are greater than annual interest income for years 2028 through 2041, i.e., through the year preceding the year of trust fund exhaustion.

Figure VI.F1.--Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

[D]

Table VI.F9 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in current dollars--that is in dollars unadjusted for price inflation. Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. These estimates, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions, are presented to facilitate independent analysis.

Table VI.F9.--Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2004-80 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2004
$564.7
$88.9
$653.7
$500.3
$1,684.1
 
2005
605.2
95.5
700.7
517.6
1,867.3
 
2006
634.5
104.0
738.5
538.3
2,067.5
 
2007
667.4
115.0
782.5
563.4
2,286.6
 
2008
701.9
128.6
830.5
594.0
2,523.1
 
2009
735.3
142.9
878.3
631.6
2,769.7
 
2010
771.9
157.9
929.8
670.0
3,029.6
 
2011
811.8
173.9
985.7
711.9
3,303.3
 
2012
850.6
190.0
1,040.6
760.3
3,583.5
 
2013
889.0
206.2
1,095.2
811.6
3,867.1
 
 
2015
973.1
241.5
1,214.6
926.8
4,442.1
 
2020
1,213.9
324.8
1,538.6
1,299.4
5,775.8
 
2025
1,501.1
375.0
1,876.1
1,782.2
6,574.5
 
2030
1,852.1
370.6
2,222.7
2,364.0
6,370.0
 
2035
2,285.3
286.9
2,572.2
3,032.3
4,735.8
 
2040 1
2,817.9
101.4
2,919.3
3,777.7
1,279.6
Low Cost:
 
2004
565.9
89.0
654.9
498.8
1,686.8
 
2005
609.6
95.6
705.2
513.7
1,878.3
 
2006
638.1
103.8
741.9
530.2
2,090.0
 
2007
671.2
114.6
785.8
550.2
2,325.6
 
2008
705.2
127.4
832.7
574.1
2,584.2
 
2009
737.6
141.7
879.4
603.1
2,860.4
 
2010
772.7
157.2
929.9
632.5
3,157.8
 
2011
811.0
174.0
985.1
664.4
3,478.5
 
2012
846.2
191.9
1,038.1
701.7
3,814.8
 
2013
879.2
210.6
1,089.8
740.8
4,163.8
.
 
2015
955.0
251.7
1,206.8
834.4
4,897.9
 
2020
1,168.8
362.3
1,531.1
1,131.3
6,864.1
 
2025
1,419.6
470.0
1,889.6
1,499.8
8,840.4
 
2030
1,722.2
573.6
2,295.8
1,921.2
10,738.5
 
2035
2,094.6
675.8
2,770.4
2,384.8
12,622.3
 
2040
2,552.4
790.2
3,342.6
2,875.2
14,764.1
 
2045
3,111.8
934.7
4,046.5
3,445.6
17,485.7
 
2050
3,791.2
1,120.4
4,911.6
4,142.8
20,982.5
 
2055
4,619.0
1,353.6
5,972.6
5,025.1
25,357.8
 
2060
5,630.4
1,638.5
7,268.9
6,111.2
30,699.8
 
2065
6,873.6
1,988.9
8,862.5
7,430.4
37,277.7
 
2070
8,397.2
2,426.3
10,823.5
9,022.4
45,500.8
 
2075
10,257.3
2,976.6
13,233.9
10,976.6
55,847.0
 
2080
12,520.6
3,658.4
16,178.9
13,417.2
68,633.6
High Cost:
 
2004
559.8
88.3
648.1
503.1
1,675.8
 
2005
597.4
96.8
694.2
531.0
1,839.0
 
2006
630.9
106.2
737.1
560.1
2,015.9
 
2007
658.4
115.5
773.9
589.6
2,200.2
 
2008
695.4
130.1
825.5
632.3
2,393.4
 
2009
748.9
154.0
902.9
691.5
2,604.8
 
2010
798.2
172.5
970.7
751.0
2,824.4
 
2011
845.9
185.9
1,031.8
810.5
3,045.7
 
2012
892.0
198.1
1,090.1
873.1
3,262.6
 
2013
938.4
210.9
1,149.3
938.7
3,473.3
 
 
2015
1,036.6
230.8
1,267.4
1,085.8
3,853.6
 
2020
1,322.4
255.0
1,577.4
1,570.2
4,296.3
 
2025
1,671.0
211.3
1,882.3
2,224.0
3,371.2
 
2030 1
2,105.0
31.7
2,136.7
3,055.6
28.4

1Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2042 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F10 shows, in current dollars, estimated income (excluding interest) and estimated total cost (excluding the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances) of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report. For OASDI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, and miscellaneous transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment) and proceeds from the taxation of OASDI benefits. Total cost consists of outlays (scheduled benefits and administrative expenses) for insured beneficiaries. Income and cost estimates are shown on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

Table VI.F10 also shows the difference between income excluding interest and cost, which is called the balance. The balance indicates the size of the difference between tax income and cost.

Table VI.F10.--OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2004-80 

[In billions]

Calendar
year
OASDI
 
HI
 
Combined
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Intermediate:
 
2004
$565
$500
$64
 
$170
$173
-$3
 
$735
$673
$62
 
2005
605
518
88
 
180
185
-5
 
785
703
83
 
2006
635
538
96
 
190
196
-6
 
825
734
90
 
2007
667
563
104
 
200
209
-9
 
868
773
95
 
2008
702
594
108
 
213
222
-10
 
915
816
98
 
2009
735
632
104
 
223
236
-13
 
958
868
90
 
2010
772
670
102
 
235
251
-16
 
1,007
921
86
 
2011
812
712
100
 
249
266
-17
 
1,061
978
83
 
2012
851
760
90
 
262
283
-21
 
1,113
1,044
69
 
2013
889
812
77
 
275
302
-27
 
1,164
1,114
51
 
 
2015
973
927
46
 
303
343
-40
 
1,276
1,270
6
 
2020
1,214
1,299
-85
 
381
483
-102
 
1,594
1,782
-188
 
2025
1,501
1,782
-281
 
474
691
-217
 
1,975
2,473
-498
 
2030
1,852
2,364
-512
 
589
988
-399
 
2,441
3,352
-911
 
2035
2,285
3,032
-747
 
729
1,394
-664
 
3,014
4,426
-1,411
 
2040
2,818
3,778
-960
 
900
1,915
-1,015
 
3,718
5,693
-1,975
 
2045
3,470
4,663
-1,193
 
1,108
2,572
-1,464
 
4,578
7,235
-2,657
 
2050
4,261
5,749
-1,488
 
1,361
3,391
-2,030
 
5,622
9,140
-3,518
 
2055
5,228
7,133
-1,905
 
1,672
4,451
-2,779
 
6,900
11,584
-4,684
 
2060
6,411
8,866
-2,455
 
2,053
5,882
-3,828
 
8,465
14,748
-6,283
 
2065
7,861
11,027
-3,166
 
2,521
7,823
-5,302
 
10,382
18,850
-8,468
 
2070
9,642
13,689
-4,048
 
3,096
10,427
-7,331
 
12,738
24,116
-11,378
 
2075
11,819
16,960
-5,141
 
3,799
13,834
-10,035
 
15,619
30,794
-15,175
 
2080
14,478
21,004
-6,526
 
4,659
18,260
-13,601
 
19,137
39,264
-20,127
Low Cost:
 
2004
566
499
67
 
170
169
1
 
736
668
69
 
2005
610
514
96
 
181
178
3
 
790
692
99
 
2006
638
530
108
 
191
185
5
 
829
716
113
 
2007
671
550
121
 
201
195
6
 
872
745
127
 
2008
705
574
131
 
212
203
10
 
918
777
141
 
2009
738
603
134
 
222
211
11
 
959
814
145
 
2010
773
633
140
 
233
219
14
 
1,006
852
154
 
2011
811
664
147
 
246
228
18
 
1,057
892
165
 
2012
846
702
144
 
258
237
21
 
1,104
939
165
 
2013
879
741
138
 
269
247
22
 
1,148
988
160
 
 
2015
955
834
121
 
293
268
25
 
1,248
1,102
146
 
2020
1,169
1,131
37
 
361
338
24
 
1,530
1,469
61
 
2025
1,420
1,500
-80
 
442
434
8
 
1,861
1,934
-73
 
2030
1,722
1,921
-199
 
538
556
-18
 
2,261
2,477
-217
 
2035
2,095
2,385
-290
 
656
711
-55
 
2,751
3,096
-346
 
2040
2,552
2,875
-323
 
799
908
-109
 
3,351
3,783
-432
 
2045
3,112
3,446
-334
 
973
1,159
-187
 
4,084
4,605
-520
 
2050
3,791
4,143
-352
 
1,184
1,486
-302
 
4,975
5,629
-654
 
2055
4,619
5,025
-406
 
1,441
1,932
-491
 
6,060
6,957
-897
 
2060
5,630
6,111
-481
 
1,757
2,541
-784
 
7,387
8,652
-1,265
 
2065
6,874
7,430
-557
 
2,144
3,369
-1,225
 
9,018
10,799
-1,781
 
2070
8,397
9,022
-625
 
2,618
4,477
-1,859
 
11,015
13,500
-2,485
 
2075
10,257
10,977
-719
 
3,196
5,925
-2,729
 
13,454
16,901
-3,448
 
2080
12,521
13,417
-897
 
3,901
7,797
-3,896
 
16,422
21,214
-4,793
High Cost:
 
2004
560
503
57
 
167
176
-10
 
727
680
47
 
2005
597
531
66
 
179
194
-14
 
777
725
52
 
2006
631
560
71
 
190
209
-19
 
821
769
52
 
2007
658
590
69
 
198
226
-28
 
856
815
41
 
2008
695
632
63
 
212
246
-35
 
907
879
28
 
2009
749
691
57
 
230
273
-43
 
979
965
14
 
2010
798
751
47
 
247
300
-54
 
1,045
1,051
-7
 
2011
846
810
35
 
263
327
-64
 
1,108
1,137
-29
 
2012
892
873
19
 
278
356
-78
 
1,170
1,229
-59
 
2013
938
939
1
 
294
389
-95
 
1,233
1,328
-95
 
 
2015
1,037
1,086
-49
 
326
464
-137
 
1,363
1,549
-186
 
2020
1,322
1,570
-248
 
420
732
-312
 
1,743
2,302
-560
 
2025
1,671
2,224
-553
 
536
1,177
-641
 
2,207
3,401
-1,194
 
2030
2,105
3,056
-951
 
680
1,886
-1,206
 
2,785
4,942
-2,157
 
2035
2,645
4,065
-1,421
 
860
2,940
-2,080
 
3,505
7,005
-3,500
 
2040
3,311
5,255
-1,944
 
1,080
4,358
-3,278
 
4,391
9,612
-5,221
 
2045
4,126
6,713
-2,587
 
1,349
6,165
-4,817
 
5,475
12,879
-7,404
 
2050
5,124
8,540
-3,416
 
1,679
8,379
-6,700
 
6,804
16,919
-10,116
 
2055
6,342
10,893
-4,551
 
2,085
11,106
-9,021
 
8,427
22,000
-13,573
 
2060
7,841
13,900
-6,059
 
2,588
14,767
-12,180
 
10,429
28,668
-18,239
 
2065
9,674
17,747
-8,074
 
3,206
19,720
-16,514
 
12,880
37,467
-24,587
 
2070
11,928
22,582
-10,654
 
3,970
26,363
-22,393
 
15,898
48,945
-33,047
 
2075
14,684
28,605
-13,921
 
4,905
35,048
-30,143
 
19,588
63,652
-44,064
 
2080
18,067
36,064
-17,997
 
6,054
46,379
-40,325
 
24,122
82,444
-58,322

1Less than $500 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F11 shows projected future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at either the normal retirement age (NRA) or age 65, for workers attaining age 65 in 2004 and subsequent years. Illustrative benefit levels are shown for workers with four separate pre-retirement earnings patterns. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions in this report. The benefit amounts are shown in constant 2004 dollars (adjusted to 2004 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7). Benefit amounts are also shown as percentages of the general, career-average relative earnings level for each case, wage indexed to the year prior to retirement. These percentages thus represent the benefit "replacement rate" of the career-average level of earnings.

The normal retirement age is 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000 and is scheduled to increase to age 66 during the period 2000-05 (at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attain age 62) and to age 67 during the period 2017-22 (also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62). Thus, for illustrative cases attaining age 65 after 2002, benefit levels shown for retirement at 65 are lower than the levels shown for retirement at NRA, primarily because of the actuarial reduction for "early" (pre-NRA) retirement.

Four different pre-retirement earnings patterns are represented in table VI.F11. Three of these patterns are for workers with scaled-earnings patterns,1 reflecting low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fourth case is the steady maximum earner. The three scaled-earnings cases have earnings patterns that reflect differences by age in the probability of work and in average earnings levels experienced by insured workers during the period 1991-2000. The general, career-average level of earnings for the scaled cases is set relative to the SSA average wage indexing series (AWI) so that benefit levels are consistent with levels for "steady-earnings" cases that were shown in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. For the scaled medium earner, the general, career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI. For the scaled low and high earners, the general, career-average earnings level is set at about 45 percent and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively. The steady maximum earner is assumed to have earnings at (or above) the OASDI contribution and benefit base for each year prior to retirement starting at age 22.

As noted above, the scaled-earnings cases were constructed so that their career-average earnings levels are consistent with the corresponding steady low, average, and high earners that were illustrated in the 2000 Trustees Report. As a result, values in this table for benefits under the present-law Social Security benefit formula are essentially comparable to those in earlier reports. Scaled-earnings cases are now generally being used instead of steady-earnings cases because they more accurately illustrate the differences in benefit levels under the wide variety of reform proposals considered in recent years.

Table VI.F11.--Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts1 for Retired Workers
With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2004-80 
Year attain age 65 2
 
Retirement at normal retirement age
 
Retirement at age 65
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2004
dollars   3
Percent of earnings
Age at retirement
Constant
2004
dollars3
Percent of earnings
Scaled low earnings:4
 
2004
 
65:4
$8,804
57.4
 
65:0
$8,624
56.5
 
2005
 
65:6
9,015
57.4
 
65:0
8,725
56.1
 
2010
 
66:0
9,367
55.5
 
65:0
8,741
52.4
 
2015
 
66:0
9,947
55.9
 
65:0
9,288
52.7
 
2020
 
66:2
10,493
55.9
 
65:0
9,675
52.2
 
2025
 
67:0
11,044
55.4
 
65:0
9,574
49.0
 
2030
 
67:0
11,645
55.4
 
65:0
10,088
49.0
 
2035
 
67:0
12,280
55.3
 
65:0
10,641
48.9
 
2040
 
67:0
12,962
55.3
 
65:0
11,235
48.9
 
2045
 
67:0
13,689
55.3
 
65:0
11,863
48.9
 
2050
 
67:0
14,452
55.4
 
65:0
12,524
49.0
 
2055
 
67:0
15,246
55.4
 
65:0
13,215
49.0
 
2060
 
67:0
16,080
55.4
 
65:0
13,937
49.0
 
2065
 
67:0
16,958
55.3
 
65:0
14,699
49.0
 
2070
 
67:0
17,887
55.3
 
65:0
15,502
49.0
 
2075
 
67:0
18,869
55.3
 
65:0
16,354
49.0
 
2080
 
67:0
19,906
55.3
 
65:0
17,252
49.0
Scaled medium earnings:5
 
2004
 
65:4
14,513
42.5
 
65:0
14,209
41.9
 
2005
 
65:6
14,854
42.5
 
65:0
14,384
41.6
 
2010
 
66:0
15,433
41.2
 
65:0
14,403
38.9
 
2015
 
66:0
16,390
41.4
 
65:0
15,302
39.1
 
2020
 
66:2
17,291
41.5
 
65:0
15,951
38.7
 
2025
 
67:0
18,203
41.1
 
65:0
15,772
36.3
 
2030
 
67:0
19,183
41.1
 
65:0
16,624
36.3
 
2035
 
67:0
20,233
41.0
 
65:0
17,533
36.3
 
2040
 
67:0
21,357
41.0
 
65:0
18,510
36.3
 
2045
 
67:0
22,554
41.0
 
65:0
19,544
36.3
 
2050
 
67:0
23,811
41.0
 
65:0
20,636
36.3
 
2055
 
67:0
25,118
41.1
 
65:0
21,770
36.3
 
2060
 
67:0
26,493
41.1
 
65:0
22,959
36.3
 
2065
 
67:0
27,939
41.0
 
65:0
24,215
36.3
 
2070
 
67:0
29,469
41.0
 
65:0
25,538
36.3
 
2075
 
67:0
31,085
41.0
 
65:0
26,940
36.3
 
2080
 
67:0
32,795
41.0
 
65:0
28,421
36.3
Scaled high earnings:6
 
2004
 
65:4
19,099
35.7
 
65:0
18,701
35.2
 
2005
 
65:6
19,585
35.6
 
65:0
18,966
34.8
 
2010
 
66:0
20,471
34.1
 
65:0
19,102
32.2
 
2015
 
66:0
21,743
34.4
 
65:0
20,288
32.4
 
2020
 
66:2
22,933
34.4
 
65:0
21,149
32.1
 
2025
 
67:0
24,134
34.1
 
65:0
20,914
30.1
 
2030
 
67:0
25,436
34.0
 
65:0
22,046
30.1
 
2035
 
67:0
26,824
34.0
 
65:0
23,251
30.1
 
2040
 
67:0
28,315
34.0
 
65:0
24,540
30.1
 
2045
 
67:0
29,900
34.0
 
65:0
25,913
30.1
 
2050
 
67:0
31,572
34.0
 
65:0
27,361
30.1
 
2055
 
67:0
33,305
34.0
 
65:0
28,863
30.1
 
2060
 
67:0
35,124
34.0
 
65:0
30,439
30.1
 
2065
 
67:0
37,043
34.0
 
65:0
32,103
30.1
 
2070
 
67:0
39,069
34.0
 
65:0
33,859
30.1
 
2075
 
67:0
41,214
34.0
 
65:0
35,718
30.1
 
2080
 
67:0
43,478
34.0
 
65:0
37,681
30.1
Steady maximum earnings: 7
 
2004
 
65:4
21,891
30.0
 
65:0
21,428
29.8
 
2005
 
65:6
22,551
29.7
 
65:0
21,842
29.3
 
2010
 
66:0
24,444
28.0
 
65:0
22,631
26.5
 
2015
 
66:0
26,452
27.6
 
65:0
24,555
26.0
 
2020
 
66:2
28,045
27.5
 
65:0
25,770
25.6
 
2025
 
67:0
29,705
27.3
 
65:0
25,546
24.0
 
2030
 
67:0
31,330
27.3
 
65:0
26,965
23.9
 
2035
 
67:0
33,047
27.2
 
65:0
28,446
23.9
 
2040
 
67:0
34,850
27.2
 
65:0
29,996
23.9
 
2045
 
67:0
36,803
27.2
 
65:0
31,678
23.9
 
2050
 
67:0
38,790
27.3
 
65:0
33,389
24.0
 
2055
 
67:0
40,921
27.3
 
65:0
35,223
24.0
 
2060
 
67:0
43,154
27.3
 
65:0
37,147
24.0
 
2065
 
67:0
45,507
27.3
 
65:0
39,174
24.0
 
2070
 
67:0
47,996
27.3
 
65:0
41,315
24.0
 
2075
 
67:0
50,630
27.3
 
65:0
43,582
24.0
 
2080
 
67:0
53,411
27.3
 
65:0
45,977
24.0

1Annual scheduled benefit amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

2Assumed to attain age 65 in January of the year.

3The adjustment for constant dollars is made using the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7.

4Career-average earnings at about 45 percent of the SSA average wage index (AWI).

5Career-average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

6Career-average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

7Earnings for each year equal to the OASDI contribution and benefit base.


1More details are provided on the development of scaled-earnings patterns in the Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 144, located at the following internet address: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/note144.html.


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