2025 OASDI Trustees Report

E. CONCLUSION

The data and projections presented in this report include the Trustees’ best estimates of the future course of the population, the economy, and all aspects of the OASDI program under current law.¹ There have been three substantial changes since last year’s report:

•	the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 was enacted on January 5, 2025, repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset,

•	the year in which the ultimate total fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman is reached was extended from 2040 to 2050, and

•	the ultimate assumption for the ratio of total labor compensation to GDP was reduced to 61.2 percent, from 62.8 percent in last year’s report.

Based on the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, Social Security’s cost exceeds total income in 2025, as it has since 2021, and remains higher than income throughout the remainder of the 75‑year projection period.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2033. The DI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2099. Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion. In the absence of such legislation, continuing income to the trust funds at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI benefits.

Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to cover full payment of scheduled benefits on a timely basis until the trust fund reserves become depleted in 2034. Full payment of benefits until the hypothetical combined reserves are depleted in 2034 implicitly assumes that the law will have been changed to permit the transfer of funds between OASI and DI as needed. At the time of reserve depletion, projected continuing income to the combined trust funds equals about 81 percent of the program cost. By 2099, continuing income equals about 72 percent of the program cost.

The actuarial deficit for the combined trust funds under the intermediate assumptions is 3.82 percent of taxable payroll for the 75-year period 2025‑99, which is larger than the deficit of 3.50 percent for 2024-98 in last year’s report. To illustrate the magnitude of the deficit, consider that for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period:

•	revenue would have to be increased by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.65 percentage points to 16.05 percent;

•

scheduled benefits would have to either be reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 22.4 percent applied to all current and future beneficiaries through 2099, or by 26.8 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for benefits in 2025 or later; or

•	some combination of these approaches would have to be adopted.

If actions are deferred for several years, the changes necessary to maintain Social Security solvency through 2099 become concentrated on fewer years and fewer generations.

If lawmakers design legislative solutions only to eliminate the overall actuarial deficit without considering year-by-year financing, then a substantial financial imbalance could remain for 2099 and beyond. In that case, the long-range sustainability of program financing could still be in doubt. Sustainable solvency for the program’s financing under a specified set of assumptions is achieved when the projected trust fund ratio is positive throughout the 75-year long-range period and is either stable or rising at the end of the period. Making changes now that achieve sustainable solvency could avoid the need for later legislative changes.

Lawmakers have a broad continuum of policy options that would close or reduce Social Security's long-term financing shortfall. Estimates for many options are available at www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/. Broadly speaking, the approaches that lawmakers can take include:

•	increasing revenue from workers and employers by raising the tax rate or the maximum level of taxable earnings, or by dedicating revenue from other sources;

•	lowering benefits for some or all beneficiaries by changing certain program parameters; or

•	a combination of these approaches.

There are many variations on these options, including those that vary the timing, magnitude, and other specifics of the changes under consideration.

The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust. Implementing changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits.

Social Security will play a critical role in the lives of 70 million beneficiaries and 185 million covered workers and their families during 2025. With informed discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, Social Security can continue to protect future generations.

For more information related to this report, see the following websites:

•	www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/

•	www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/

•	www.cms.gov/OACT/TR/2025/

•	home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/economic-policy/social-security-and-medicare-trustee-reports/

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1

The intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2024. The Trustees will continue to monitor developments and modify the projections in later reports.