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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Count 90% of Earnings in Payroll Tax and
Benefit Calculations; Phase in 2024–2033

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Age
60–69 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
80–89 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 27% 0% 0% 8%
Bachelor 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Associate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 30% 0% 0% 9%
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 19% 0% 0% 4%
Disabled worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 18% 0% 0% 5%
Sex
Female 0% 15% 0% 0% 3%
Male 0% 21% 0% 0% 6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 20% 0% 0% 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 34% 0% 0% 17%
Country of birth
United States 0% 17% 0% 0% 4%
Other countries 0% 20% 0% 0% 7%
Age
60–69 0% 15% 0% 0% 3%
70–79 0% 19% 0% 0% 5%
80–89 0% 20% 0% 0% 6%
90 or older 0% 19% 0% 0% 4%
Marital status
Married 0% 20% 0% 0% 7%
Divorced 0% 16% 0% 0% 3%
Widowed 0% 17% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 38% 0% 0% 20%
Bachelor 0% 32% 0% 0% 13%
Associate 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 18% 0% 0% 5%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 47% 0% 0% 26%
Second highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 5%
Middle 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0% 5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 16% 0% 0% 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 26% 0% 0% 10%
Disabled worker only 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 2% $0 $0 $572
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 30% $0 $0 $7,025
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 11% 0% 0% 6% $0 $0 $1,436
50–59 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 20% 0% 0% 47% $0 $0 $10,855
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% 15% $0 $0 $3,559
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 33% 0% 0% 83% $0 $0 $19,172
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 38% 0% 0% 83% $0 $0 $19,172
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% $0 $0 $472
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 33% $0 $0 $9,664
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 11% 0% 0% 4% $0 $0 $1,250
50–59 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0% 39% $0 $0 $11,678
Bachelor 0% 13% 0% 0% 13% $0 $0 $4,009
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0% 91% $0 $0 $26,712
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 38% 0% 0% 91% $0 $0 $26,712
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% 3% $0 $0 $1,233
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% 36% $0 $0 $13,398
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% $0 $0 $709
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 11% 0% 0% 5% $0 $0 $2,188
50–59 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% $0 $0 $439
60–69 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0% 36% $0 $0 $13,495
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% 20% $0 $0 $7,473
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0% 93% $0 $0 $34,285
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 40% 0% 0% 93% $0 $0 $34,285
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Age
60–69 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
80–89 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
90 or older 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 28% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 32% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,943 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,486 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,655 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,593 0 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,779 -2 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,099 0 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,680 -2 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,058 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,741 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 654 -2 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 326 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,508 -2 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,271 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,400 -2 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,337 0 0%
80–89 4% 4% 873 873 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 711 0 0%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,070 0 0%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 817 0 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,181 -2 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 167 -2 -1%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 344 0 0%
Associate 3% 3% 630 630 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,694 0 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 944 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,779 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,837 -2 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 508 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 218 0 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,820 -1 0%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,525 -1 0%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,296 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 963 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,123 -1 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 426 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 309 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,768 -1 0%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 1,052 0 0%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 943 -1 0%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,057 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 628 628 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 192 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 470 0 0%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 687 0 0%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 485 -1 0%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,179 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 156 0 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 216 0 0%
Associate 2% 2% 460 460 0 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,227 -1 0%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 761 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,820 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,196 -1 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 314 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 156 0 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 145% 450%
Sex
Female 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 182% 644%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 119% 266%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 162% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 408%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 149% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 146% 509%
Country of birth
United States 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 141% 416%
Other countries 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 164% 599%
Highest education level
Graduate 10% 3% -1% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 125% 263%
Bachelor 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 136% 362%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 146% 393%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 153% 519%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 161% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 108% 157%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 201%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 160% 270%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 23% 228% 507%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 254% 1,571%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 136% 202%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 161% 267%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 218% 456%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 308% 1,593%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 56% 115% 194%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 139% 269%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 160% 363%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 185% 516%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 205% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 10% 3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 128% 406%
Sex
Female 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 157% 580%
Male 14% 1% -3% 0% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 109% 275%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 133% 449%
White, non-Hispanic 12% 4% -2% 0% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 130% 406%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 129% 355%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 4% -8% 0% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 99% 383%
Country of birth
United States 11% 3% -1% 0% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 130% 371%
Other countries 9% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 123% 610%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 6% -8% 0% 0% 17% 113% 278% 17% 110% 279%
Bachelor 21% 5% -6% 0% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 116% 314%
Associate 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 133% 351%
High school 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 143% 538%
Less than high school 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 133% 629%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 46% 2% -10% 0% 0% 40% 96% 138% 38% 92% 136%
Second highest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 31% 128% 192% 31% 128% 194%
Middle 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 26% 157% 271% 26% 157% 273%
Second lowest 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 220% 573%
Lowest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 121% 2,100%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 2% -10% 0% 0% 42% 96% 137% 41% 92% 136%
Second highest 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 39% 129% 194% 39% 129% 195%
Middle 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 24% 159% 274% 24% 159% 276%
Second lowest 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 216% 508%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 95% 2,201%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 41% 7% -10% 0% 0% 46% 99% 163% 45% 96% 164%
Second highest 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 44% 131% 267% 43% 130% 267%
Middle 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 35% 158% 359% 35% 158% 360%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 188% 575%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 38% 1,049%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 4% -2% 0% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 119% 361%
Sex
Female 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 145% 525%
Male 15% 1% -4% 0% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 101% 246%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 125% 406%
White, non-Hispanic 13% 5% -2% 0% 0% 17% 120% 343% 17% 120% 347%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 118% 333%
All other races, non-Hispanic 24% 6% -9% 0% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 103% 355%
Country of birth
United States 11% 4% -1% 0% 0% 9% 120% 319% 9% 119% 322%
Other countries 12% 5% -4% 0% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 120% 574%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 8% -10% 0% 0% 21% 109% 259% 20% 107% 266%
Bachelor 24% 6% -7% 0% 0% 13% 110% 278% 12% 108% 279%
Associate 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 124% 321%
High school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 129% 441%
Less than high school 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 125% 594%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 49% 2% -13% 0% 0% 40% 88% 127% 37% 84% 125%
Second highest 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 34% 118% 177% 34% 119% 177%
Middle 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 30% 144% 246% 30% 144% 249%
Second lowest 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 9% 196% 466% 9% 197% 471%
Lowest 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 122% 1,764%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 2% -13% 0% 0% 43% 89% 127% 41% 85% 126%
Second highest 5% 4% 0% 0% 0% 38% 119% 179% 38% 119% 179%
Middle 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 27% 144% 249% 27% 144% 252%
Second lowest 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 13% 192% 442% 13% 192% 448%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 125% 1,831%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 44% 8% -12% 0% 0% 45% 91% 145% 43% 87% 146%
Second highest 9% 6% 0% 0% 0% 46% 122% 227% 46% 121% 231%
Middle 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 31% 140% 302% 31% 139% 303%
Second lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 11% 172% 532% 11% 172% 533%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 80% 999%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 12% 4% -2% 0% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 124% 371%
Sex
Female 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 150% 537%
Male 16% 1% -5% 0% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 105% 253%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 129% 401%
White, non-Hispanic 13% 5% -2% 0% 0% 21% 126% 363% 20% 125% 367%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 121% 307%
All other races, non-Hispanic 24% 5% -9% 0% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 110% 340%
Country of birth
United States 12% 4% -2% 0% 0% 11% 125% 324% 11% 125% 327%
Other countries 12% 4% -3% 0% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 121% 522%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 7% -11% 0% 0% 30% 116% 286% 28% 113% 290%
Bachelor 24% 6% -7% 0% 0% 9% 115% 300% 9% 114% 303%
Associate 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 129% 327%
High school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 133% 444%
Less than high school 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 129% 578%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 51% 2% -13% -1% 0% 45% 95% 133% 43% 90% 131%
Second highest 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 43% 124% 181% 43% 124% 181%
Middle 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 23% 149% 251% 23% 149% 252%
Second lowest 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 208% 506%
Lowest 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 123% 1,564%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 51% 2% -13% -1% 0% 46% 95% 133% 44% 90% 131%
Second highest 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 44% 123% 182% 44% 123% 183%
Middle 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 30% 149% 254% 30% 149% 256%
Second lowest 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 202% 466% 2% 202% 473%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 124% 1,609%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 8% -13% 0% 0% 50% 98% 152% 48% 93% 154%
Second highest 9% 6% 0% 0% 0% 46% 125% 235% 46% 124% 237%
Middle 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 36% 146% 316% 36% 146% 318%
Second lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 183% 544%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 73% 797%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 49% 90%
Country of birth
United States 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 2% 9% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 3% 8% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 3% 8% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 8% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 37% 54%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 23% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 8% 3% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 16% 2% -3% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 21% 42% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 13% 3% -2% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 22% 44% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 25% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 27% 4% -10% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 20% 45% 81%
Country of birth
United States 12% 3% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 22% 46% 79%
Other countries 14% 2% -3% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 25% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 31% 6% -9% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 19% 40% 75%
Bachelor 23% 4% -6% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 19% 41% 79%
Associate 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 50% 87%
Less than high school 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 53% 5% -12% -1% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 30% 45%
Second highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 30% 45% 65%
Second lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 82%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 51% 5% -12% -1% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 31% 48%
Second highest 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 45% 7% -12% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 15% 32% 51%
Second highest 11% 3% -1% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 21% 38% 62%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 72%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 50% 66% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 14% 3% -2% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 23% 47% 84%
Sex
Female 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Male 18% 2% -5% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 21% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 26% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 4% -3% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 22% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 28% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 31% 5% -11% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 22% 44% 85%
Country of birth
United States 13% 3% -2% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Other countries 17% 3% -5% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 30% 6% -12% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 20% 41% 78%
Bachelor 27% 5% -9% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 18% 42% 81%
Associate 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 77%
High school 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 27% 51% 88%
Less than high school 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 57% 5% -17% -1% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 29% 45%
Second highest 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 126%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 56% 5% -17% -1% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 30% 48%
Second highest 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 23% 39% 59%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 54% 81%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 73% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 50% 6% -17% -1% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 31% 50%
Second highest 12% 5% -1% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 21% 40% 63%
Middle 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 72%
Second lowest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 14% 3% -2% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 22% 47% 84%
Sex
Female 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Male 18% 2% -5% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 20% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 25% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 4% -3% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 21% 45% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 31% 5% -11% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 20% 43% 83%
Country of birth
United States 13% 3% -2% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 22% 46% 81%
Other countries 17% 4% -4% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 25% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 31% 6% -13% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 18% 42% 79%
Bachelor 27% 5% -8% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 19% 41% 83%
Associate 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 76%
High school 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 26% 50% 89%
Less than high school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 57% 6% -17% -1% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 29% 44%
Second highest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 46% 65%
Second lowest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 83%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 134%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 57% 6% -17% -1% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 30% 46%
Second highest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 57%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 39% 54% 84%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 74% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 51% 7% -17% -1% 0% 16% 35% 50% 15% 31% 49%
Second highest 12% 5% -1% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 21% 40% 62%
Middle 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 72%
Second lowest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 108%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: TAXMAX OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision E3.1.