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Summary Comparison for All Policy Option Projections

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Projected Effects of All Proposals on Social Security Benefits in Selected Years POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Proposal or option 2030 2050 2070
Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—
Benefit decrease Benefit increase Benefit decrease Benefit increase Benefit decrease Benefit increase
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes
Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 85% 2% 0% 85%
Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index -1% 90% 0% -4% 91% 0% -4% 91% 0%
Coverage Changes
Cover all newly hired state and local workers 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 11%
Family Benefit Changes
Create an alternative survivor benefit 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 9%
Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount 0% 2% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 7% 0%
Retirement Age Changes
Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 4% 0% 0% 47% 0% -3% 64% 2%
Increase the full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 8% 0% -2% 63% 0% -6% 79% 0%
Increase the full retirement age to 68—1 month every 2 years 0% 8% 0% -2% 63% 0% -5% 75% 0%
Social Security Payroll Tax Changes
Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 18%
Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2024–2033 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 18%
Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Worker Benefit Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records 0% 0% 12% 0% 1% 26% 0% 1% 28%
Eliminate the retirement earnings test 0% 4% 2% 0% 18% 2% 0% 20% 2%
Increase benefits for older beneficiaries 0% 0% 22% 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 30%
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years 0% 11% 0% -2% 62% 0% -3% 78% 0%
Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity 0% 0% 0% 0% 44% 0% -6% 84% 0%
Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile 0% 0% 1% 0% 36% 6% -8% 70% 1%
Reconfigure the minimum benefit 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 12%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: Website 03/22/2024
NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of All Proposals on Social Security Taxes Paid in Selected Years POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Proposal or option 2030 2050 2070
Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—
Tax decrease Tax increase Tax decrease Tax increase Tax decrease Tax increase
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes
Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Coverage Changes
Cover all newly hired state and local workers 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Family Benefit Changes
Create an alternative survivor benefit 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Retirement Age Changes
Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Increase the full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Increase the full retirement age to 68—1 month every 2 years 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Social Security Payroll Tax Changes
Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8%
Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2024–2033 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8%
Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064 0% 0% 0% 30% 0% 100% 61% 0% 100%
Worker Benefit Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eliminate the retirement earnings test 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Increase benefits for older beneficiaries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reconfigure the minimum benefit 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: Website 03/22/2024
NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of All Proposals on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers with a benefit/tax ratio, by selected birth cohorts (characteristics)
Proposal or option 1960–1969 1980–1989 2000–2009 2020–2029
Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase Ratio decrease Ratio increase Ratio decrease Ratio increase Ratio decrease Ratio increase
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes
Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly 2% 0% 73% 2% 0% 76% 2% 0% 79% 2% 0% 79%
Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index -3% 78% 0% -3% 80% 0% -3% 82% 0% -3% 82% 0%
Coverage Changes
Cover all newly hired state and local workers 0% 2% 0% 0% 8% 1% 0% 17% 3% 0% 20% 3%
Family Benefit Changes
Create an alternative survivor benefit 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 11%
Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount 0% 6% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 9% 0%
Retirement Age Changes
Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 22% 0% -5% 61% 0% -8% 71% 0% -12% 71% 0%
Increase the full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 28% 0% -5% 68% 0% -10% 69% 0% -15% 70% 0%
Increase the full retirement age to 68—1 month every 2 years 0% 28% 0% -5% 68% 0% -6% 69% 0% -6% 68% 0%
Social Security Payroll Tax Changes
Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations 0% 2% 1% 0% 10% 3% 0% 11% 4% 0% 12% 4%
Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2024–2033 0% 2% 1% 0% 10% 3% 0% 11% 4% 0% 12% 4%
Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064 0% 25% 0% -10% 79% 0% -22% 87% 0% -32% 88% 0%
Worker Benefit Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records 0% 0% 23% 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 29%
Eliminate the retirement earnings test 0% 6% 6% 0% 7% 9% 0% 7% 9% 0% 8% 8%
Increase benefits for older beneficiaries 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 35% 0% 0% 39% 0% 0% 43%
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years 0% 32% 0% -3% 66% 0% -3% 66% 0% -3% 65% 0%
Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity 0% 0% 0% -3% 70% 0% -9% 73% 0% -14% 75% 0%
Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile 0% 0% 8% -5% 58% 0% -12% 63% 0% -17% 63% 0%
Reconfigure the minimum benefit 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 12%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: Website 03/22/2024
NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of All Proposals on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries with a replacement rate, by selected birth cohorts (characteristics)
Proposal or option 1960–1969 1980–1989 2000–2009 2020–2029
Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change at the median Percent of
population with a—
Rate decrease Rate increase Rate decrease Rate increase Rate decrease Rate increase Rate decrease Rate increase
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes
Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 8%
Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index 0% 25% 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 29% 0% 0% 28% 0%
Coverage Changes
Cover all newly hired state and local workers 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 1% 0% 14% 2% 0% 15% 3%
Family Benefit Changes
Create an alternative survivor benefit 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4%
Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Retirement Age Changes
Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 36% 0% -5% 57% 3% -10% 56% 7% -8% 54% 16%
Increase the full retirement age—1 month every 2 years 0% 37% 0% -6% 80% 0% -11% 79% 0% -16% 79% 0%
Increase the full retirement age to 68—1 month every 2 years 0% 37% 0% -6% 80% 0% -6% 79% 0% -6% 79% 0%
Social Security Payroll Tax Changes
Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations 0% 1% 2% 0% 12% 3% 0% 14% 3% 0% 14% 3%
Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2024–2033 0% 1% 2% 0% 12% 2% 0% 14% 3% 0% 14% 3%
Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Worker Benefit Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records 0% 31% 1% 0% 33% 1% 0% 32% 1% 0% 32% 1%
Eliminate the retirement earnings test 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 15%
Increase benefits for older beneficiaries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years 0% 1% 40% 4% 4% 70% 4% 4% 69% 4% 4% 69%
Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity 0% 0% 0% -3% 79% 0% -9% 78% 0% -14% 78% 0%
Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile 0% 0% 9% -4% 62% 0% -11% 66% 0% -16% 67% 0%
Reconfigure the minimum benefit 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 14%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: Website 03/22/2024
NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.