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Summary Comparison for All Policy Option Projections
| Option/proposal | 2030 | 2050 | 2070 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
||||
| Benefit decrease | Benefit increase | Benefit decrease | Benefit increase | Benefit decrease | Benefit increase | ||||
| Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly | 1% | 0% | 82% | 2% | 0% | 84% | 2% | 0% | 84% |
| Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index | 1% | 0% | 82% | 2% | 0% | 84% | 2% | 0% | 84% |
| Coverage Changes | |||||||||
| Cover all newly hired state and local workers | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| Family Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Create an alternative survivor benefit | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| Individual Account Option | |||||||||
| Allow voluntary individual accounts | 0% | 0% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 78% | 9% | 0% | 92% |
| Retirement Age Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—one month every 2 years | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 47% | 1% | -3% | 62% | 3% |
| Increase the full retirement age—one month every 2 years starting in 2023 | 0% | 11% | 0% | -2% | 65% | 0% | -6% | 78% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age to 68—one month every 2 years | 0% | 11% | 0% | -2% | 65% | 0% | -5% | 75% | 0% |
| Social Security Payroll Tax Changes | |||||||||
| Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2021–2030 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 15.9% and then to 19.4% in 2063 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Worker Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Credit earnings to caregivers' records | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 27% | 0% | 1% | 28% |
| Eliminate the retirement earnings test | 0% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 20% | 2% |
| Increase benefits for older beneficiaries | 0% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years | 0% | 24% | 0% | -3% | 70% | 0% | -3% | 78% | 0% |
| Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1% | 53% | 0% | -6% | 85% | 0% |
| Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile | 0% | 3% | 0% | -2% | 54% | 0% | -12% | 73% | 0% |
| Reconfigure the minimum benefit | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: Website | |||||||||
| NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates. | |||||||||
| Option/proposal | 2030 | 2050 | 2070 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
||||
| Tax decrease | Tax increase | Tax decrease | Tax increase | Tax decrease | Tax increase | ||||
| Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Coverage Changes | |||||||||
| Cover all newly hired state and local workers | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Family Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Create an alternative survivor benefit | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Individual Account Option | |||||||||
| Allow voluntary individual accounts | 16% | 0% | 88% | 16% | 0% | 87% | 16% | 0% | 87% |
| Retirement Age Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—one month every 2 years | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age—one month every 2 years starting in 2023 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age to 68—one month every 2 years | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Social Security Payroll Tax Changes | |||||||||
| Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2021–2030 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 15.9% and then to 19.4% in 2063 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 0% | 100% | 56% | 0% | 100% |
| Worker Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Credit earnings to caregivers' records | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Eliminate the retirement earnings test | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Increase benefits for older beneficiaries | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Reconfigure the minimum benefit | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: Website | |||||||||
| NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates. | |||||||||
| Option/proposal | 1960–1969 | 1980–1989 | 2000–2009 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
||||
| Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | ||||
| Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly | 2% | 0% | 75% | 2% | 0% | 77% | 2% | 0% | 79% |
| Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index | 2% | 0% | 75% | 2% | 0% | 77% | 2% | 0% | 79% |
| Coverage Changes | |||||||||
| Cover all newly hired state and local workers | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 2% |
| Family Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Create an alternative survivor benefit | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Individual Account Option | |||||||||
| Allow voluntary individual accounts | 0% | 27% | 4% | -2% | 64% | 10% | -4% | 70% | 9% |
| Retirement Age Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—one month every 2 years | 0% | 26% | 0% | -5% | 66% | 0% | -9% | 70% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age—one month every 2 years starting in 2023 | 0% | 34% | 0% | -5% | 67% | 0% | -10% | 69% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age to 68—one month every 2 years | 0% | 34% | 0% | -5% | 67% | 0% | -6% | 68% | 0% |
| Social Security Payroll Tax Changes | |||||||||
| Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2021–2030 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% |
| Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% |
| Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 15.9% and then to 19.4% in 2063 | 0% | 26% | 0% | -9% | 79% | 0% | -21% | 87% | 0% |
| Worker Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Credit earnings to caregivers' records | 0% | 0% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| Eliminate the retirement earnings test | 0% | 7% | 6% | 0% | 7% | 9% | 0% | 7% | 9% |
| Increase benefits for older beneficiaries | 0% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years | -1% | 57% | 0% | -3% | 66% | 0% | -3% | 66% | 0% |
| Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity | 0% | 1% | 0% | -4% | 70% | 0% | -10% | 73% | 0% |
| Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile | 0% | 19% | 0% | -8% | 61% | 0% | -14% | 63% | 0% |
| Reconfigure the minimum benefit | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: Website | |||||||||
| NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates. | |||||||||
| Option/proposal | 1960–1969 | 1980–1989 | 2000–2009 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change at the median | Percent of population with a— |
||||
| Rate decrease | Rate increase | Rate decrease | Rate increase | Rate decrease | Rate increase | ||||
| Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the COLA—base it on the consumer price index for the elderly | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Reduce the COLA—base it on the chained consumer price index | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Coverage Changes | |||||||||
| Cover all newly hired state and local workers | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 14% | 2% |
| Family Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Create an alternative survivor benefit | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Reduce marriage duration requirement for divorced spousal benefits | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Reduce spousal benefits from 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Individual Account Option | |||||||||
| Allow voluntary individual accounts | 3% | 0% | 66% | 14% | 0% | 76% | 21% | 0% | 77% |
| Retirement Age Changes | |||||||||
| Increase the early eligibility age and full retirement age—one month every 2 years | 0% | 45% | 0% | -5% | 54% | 10% | -5% | 53% | 15% |
| Increase the full retirement age—one month every 2 years starting in 2023 | 0% | 45% | 0% | -6% | 79% | 0% | -11% | 79% | 0% |
| Increase the full retirement age to 68—one month every 2 years | 0% | 45% | 0% | -6% | 79% | 0% | -6% | 78% | 0% |
| Social Security Payroll Tax Changes | |||||||||
| Count 90% of earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations; phase in 2021–2030 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 14% | 3% |
| Count all earnings in payroll tax and benefit calculations | 0% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 14% | 3% |
| Increase payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 15.9% and then to 19.4% in 2063 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Worker Benefit Changes | |||||||||
| Credit earnings to caregivers' records | 0% | 31% | 1% | 0% | 34% | 1% | 0% | 34% | 1% |
| Eliminate the retirement earnings test | 0% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Increase benefits for older beneficiaries | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years | 2% | 2% | 66% | 4% | 4% | 69% | 4% | 4% | 68% |
| Index primary insurance amount factors to longevity | 0% | 0% | 0% | -4% | 78% | 0% | -10% | 77% | 0% |
| Price index the primary insurance amount formula for earners above the 30th percentile | 0% | 19% | 0% | -7% | 65% | 0% | -12% | 65% | 0% |
| Reconfigure the minimum benefit | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: Website | |||||||||
| NOTE: Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates. | |||||||||
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