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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Cover All Newly Hired State and Local Workers

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
80–89 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 17% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
High school 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Less than high school 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 16% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Second lowest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
80–89 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,237 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,787 0 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,450 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 570 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,804 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,472 0 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 765 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,486 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,318 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 469 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,207 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,534 0 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 717 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,237 3,237 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,252 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,266 -42 -1%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,831 -30 -1%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,435 -11 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 881 -15 -1%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,450 -21 -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 675 -4 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 260 -1 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,223 -37 -1%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 1,043 -5 0%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,260 -16 -1%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,082 -23 -2%
80–89 3% 3% 734 731 -3 0%
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 440 -16 -3%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 940 -8 0%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 743 -7 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,144 -10 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 87 -3 -4%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 278 -2 0%
Associate 3% 3% 555 545 -9 -1%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,531 -18 -1%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 826 -8 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 99% 3,309 3,266 -42 -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,464 -36 -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 498 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 99 0 0%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 206 -6 -2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,319 -106 -4%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,236 -67 -5%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,082 -38 -3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 736 -33 -4%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 980 -29 -2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 371 -21 -5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 232 -22 -8%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,516 -70 -4%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 803 -35 -4%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 758 -36 -4%
70–79 3% 2% 906 861 -45 -4%
80–89 3% 2% 585 562 -23 -3%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 138 -1 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 276 -16 -5%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 582 -31 -5%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 460 -12 -2%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,001 -45 -4%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 146 -9 -6%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 204 -14 -6%
Associate 2% 2% 405 383 -21 -5%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 991 -41 -4%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 594 -18 -3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 96% 2,425 2,319 -106 -4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,858 -100 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 318 -2 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 41 0 0%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 102 -2 -2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 127% 397% 5% 127% 395%
Sex
Female 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 159% 562% 23% 159% 561%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 105% 239% 0% 104% 237%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 506% 0% 141% 500%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 122% 359% 14% 122% 358%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 131% 410% 0% 131% 409%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 132% 493% 0% 131% 493%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 123% 363% 11% 123% 362%
Other countries 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 144% 525% 0% 144% 524%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 113% 245% 24% 112% 238%
Bachelor 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 120% 324% 25% 119% 318%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 127% 340% 16% 127% 340%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 475% 0% 132% 474%
Less than high school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 718% 0% 141% 718%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 93% 136% 36% 93% 136%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 118% 175% 21% 117% 175%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 140% 234% 10% 140% 232%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 205% 444% 23% 205% 444%
Lowest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 225% 1,369%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 94% 134% 40% 94% 134%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 118% 173% 23% 118% 172%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 141% 235% 16% 141% 234%
Second lowest 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 18% 193% 403% 18% 192% 402%
Lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 268% 1,384%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 101% 169% 47% 101% 168%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 118% 237% 33% 118% 236%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 136% 314% 15% 136% 311%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 165% 490% 9% 165% 486%
Lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 183% 1,005%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 9% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 119% 375% 0% 118% 371%
Sex
Female 10% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 143% 532% 0% 141% 523%
Male 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 101% 258% 0% 101% 255%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 9% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 128% 410% 0% 127% 404%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 14% 118% 372% 14% 117% 368%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 111% 323% 0% 110% 320%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 106% 410% 0% 106% 409%
Country of birth
United States 9% 1% -1% 0% 0% 7% 118% 342% 8% 117% 338%
Other countries 8% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 121% 521% 0% 120% 521%
Highest education level
Graduate 13% 1% -2% 0% 0% 21% 105% 271% 21% 104% 266%
Bachelor 13% 1% -2% 0% 0% 5% 107% 291% 5% 107% 287%
Associate 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 120% 329% 0% 120% 327%
High school 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130% 483% 0% 129% 475%
Less than high school 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 126% 612% 0% 126% 602%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 37% 87% 124% 37% 86% 123%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 34% 117% 176% 34% 116% 176%
Middle 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 28% 145% 258% 28% 142% 255%
Second lowest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 204% 522% 0% 200% 514%
Lowest 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 126% 1,801%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 88% 125% 40% 87% 124%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 36% 117% 178% 36% 116% 177%
Middle 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 29% 144% 261% 29% 142% 258%
Second lowest 10% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 197% 467% 0% 194% 459%
Lowest 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 126% 1,917%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 42% 90% 149% 42% 90% 147%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 43% 119% 247% 42% 118% 242%
Middle 11% 2% -1% 0% 0% 31% 139% 330% 31% 138% 324%
Second lowest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 7% 176% 565% 7% 173% 549%
Lowest 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 66% 922% 0% 70% 926%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 19% 2% -4% 0% 0% 0% 116% 343% 0% 113% 331%
Sex
Female 20% 3% -5% 0% 0% 0% 137% 486% 4% 132% 470%
Male 18% 1% -3% 0% 0% 0% 99% 245% 0% 97% 238%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 16% 2% -4% 0% 0% 0% 124% 369% 0% 121% 361%
White, non-Hispanic 20% 3% -4% 0% 0% 17% 115% 338% 17% 111% 324%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 18% 2% -4% 0% 0% 0% 112% 306% 0% 111% 293%
All other races, non-Hispanic 21% 2% -5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 327% 0% 97% 311%
Country of birth
United States 20% 2% -4% 0% 0% 11% 116% 318% 12% 112% 305%
Other countries 16% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 116% 475% 0% 113% 463%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 2% -12% 0% 0% 25% 106% 255% 28% 101% 233%
Bachelor 26% 2% -8% 0% 0% 8% 103% 272% 9% 99% 253%
Associate 15% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 118% 309% 0% 116% 305%
High school 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 124% 413% 0% 122% 406%
Less than high school 11% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 127% 547% 0% 126% 546%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 22% 1% -3% 0% 0% 39% 85% 121% 39% 84% 119%
Second highest 20% 2% -3% 0% 0% 40% 114% 170% 40% 113% 168%
Middle 19% 2% -5% 0% 0% 29% 138% 246% 28% 134% 243%
Second lowest 21% 3% -9% 0% 0% 11% 189% 452% 10% 181% 443%
Lowest 11% 4% -12% 0% 0% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 117% 1,520%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 22% 1% -3% 0% 0% 41% 85% 121% 40% 84% 118%
Second highest 21% 2% -3% 0% 0% 41% 116% 173% 41% 114% 170%
Middle 21% 2% -6% 0% 0% 31% 139% 254% 31% 134% 248%
Second lowest 22% 3% -10% 0% 0% 13% 183% 414% 12% 174% 401%
Lowest 8% 4% -4% 0% 0% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 122% 1,553%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 23% 1% -3% 0% 0% 44% 87% 139% 44% 86% 135%
Second highest 22% 2% -5% 0% 0% 45% 117% 231% 45% 114% 216%
Middle 21% 3% -5% 0% 0% 34% 136% 307% 33% 131% 297%
Second lowest 20% 3% -7% 0% 0% 12% 167% 512% 12% 160% 495%
Lowest 8% 2% -3% 0% 0% 0% 89% 792% 0% 89% 794%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 79% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race — — — — — 28% 50% 84% 27% 50% 83%
White, non-Hispanic — — — — — 23% 43% 74% 23% 43% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic — — — — — 28% 51% 85% 28% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic — — — — — 24% 48% 90% 24% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 75% 23% 44% 75%
Other countries 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate — — — — — 21% 41% 71% 21% 41% 72%
Bachelor — — — — — 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Associate — — — — — 24% 45% 74% 24% 45% 74%
High school — — — — — 27% 48% 81% 27% 48% 81%
Less than high school — — — — — 33% 56% 90% 33% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 17% 31% 47% 17% 31% 47%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 38% 56% 24% 38% 56%
Middle 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 29% 43% 63% 29% 43% 63%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 38% 51% 77%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 53% 70% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 50% 16% 33% 50%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 37% 57% 23% 37% 57%
Middle 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 43% 63% 31% 43% 63%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 37% 50% 78%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 52% 68% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 18% 36% 53% 18% 36% 53%
Second highest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 62% 22% 38% 62%
Middle 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 43% 69% 28% 43% 69%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 82% 33% 50% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 46% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 85% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 73% 22% 43% 72%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 81% 23% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 83% 26% 51% 82%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 46% 90% 22% 46% 89%
Country of birth
United States 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 45% 79%
Other countries 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 54% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 75% 21% 41% 73%
Bachelor 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 21% 43% 82% 21% 42% 81%
Associate 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 75%
High school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 89% 28% 51% 88%
Less than high school 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 30% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 16% 31% 46%
Second highest 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 65% 29% 44% 64%
Second lowest 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 40% 54% 82%
Lowest 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 135% 57% 74% 131%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 49% 16% 33% 49%
Second highest 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 66% 30% 45% 65%
Second lowest 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 39% 54% 85% 39% 54% 83%
Lowest 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 127% 56% 72% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 17% 35% 52% 17% 35% 52%
Second highest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 21% 39% 62% 21% 39% 61%
Middle 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 44% 73% 27% 44% 71%
Second lowest 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 88% 35% 52% 87%
Lowest 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 108% 50% 67% 106%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 14% 2% -2% 0% 0% 24% 48% 84% 24% 47% 81%
Sex
Female 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 14% 1% -1% 0% 0% 22% 44% 73% 22% 43% 71%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 88% 27% 50% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 14% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 45% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 12% 1% -2% 0% 0% 26% 52% 84% 26% 51% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -3% 0% 0% 22% 45% 84% 22% 44% 80%
Country of birth
United States 14% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 47% 81% 23% 46% 78%
Other countries 15% 2% -2% 0% 0% 26% 51% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 27% 3% -6% 0% 0% 21% 43% 80% 21% 42% 73%
Bachelor 18% 3% -3% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 41% 74%
Associate 10% 2% -1% 0% 0% 25% 47% 77% 25% 47% 75%
High school 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 88% 28% 50% 87%
Less than high school 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 30% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 56%
Middle 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 17% 2% -4% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 40% 54% 80%
Lowest 15% 2% -4% 0% 0% 58% 74% 128% 54% 72% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 33% 49% 16% 33% 49%
Second highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 39% 58% 23% 39% 57%
Middle 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 17% 2% -4% 0% 0% 40% 54% 83% 39% 53% 78%
Lowest 14% 2% -2% 0% 0% 57% 73% 122% 54% 72% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 16% 2% -2% 0% 0% 22% 40% 63% 22% 39% 61%
Middle 13% 3% -1% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 69%
Second lowest 16% 2% -3% 0% 0% 37% 53% 88% 36% 52% 84%
Lowest 13% 1% -1% 0% 0% 50% 67% 102% 48% 66% 100%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: BS1115v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision F1.