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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Full Retirement Age (FRA) to 68

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 34% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 61% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Male 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Country of birth
United States 64% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 74% 0% -6% -6% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
80–89 55% 0% -2% -1% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 73% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Divorced 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widowed 38% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Bachelor 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Associate 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 61% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Less than high school 67% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
In poverty 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 70% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second highest 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 60% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Lowest 58% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 76% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 26% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 71% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Sex
Female 73% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Male 76% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 74% 0% -7% -6% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -7% -5% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 77% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Country of birth
United States 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Other countries 73% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Age
60–69 72% 0% -7% -6% 0%
70–79 75% 0% -7% -6% 0%
80–89 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 78% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Divorced 74% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Widowed 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Never married 76% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Bachelor 78% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Associate 75% 0% -7% -6% 0%
High school 72% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Less than high school 73% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 74% 0% -7% -5% 0%
In poverty 78% 0% -6% -6% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 77% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Middle 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second lowest 72% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 69% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 83% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 51% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 78% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 51% 0% -3% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 58% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 51% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Divorced 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 50% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 38% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 53% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second lowest 55% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Lowest 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 50% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 53% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 61% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 60% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
70–79 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
80–89 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
90 or older 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 70% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Divorced 56% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 45% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 62% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
In poverty 60% 1% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 64% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 74% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 67% 1% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 73% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,252 15 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,791 3 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,462 11 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 574 4 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,811 7 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 231 3 1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,483 10 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 769 4 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,497 10 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,322 4 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 473 4 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,214 7 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 824 3 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,545 10 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 721 4 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,267 15 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,553 244 7%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,980 118 6%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,573 125 8%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 956 58 6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,575 102 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 740 61 9%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 282 21 8%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,436 175 7%
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,117 68 6%
Age
60–69 5% 6% 1,277 1,387 109 8%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,223 117 10%
80–89 3% 4% 734 751 16 2%
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 500 42 9%
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,026 77 8%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 785 34 4%
Never married 12% 13% 1,154 1,244 89 7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 97 6 7%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 317 36 12%
Associate 3% 3% 555 620 65 11%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,658 108 7%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 861 27 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 247 246 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,711 210 8%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 516 18 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 115 15 16%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,741 316 13%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,477 173 13%
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,264 142 12%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 769 893 123 16%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,126 116 11%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 437 44 11%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 286 31 12%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,808 222 14%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 933 94 11%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 911 116 14%
70–79 3% 3% 906 1,013 106 11%
80–89 3% 3% 585 657 71 12%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 160 20 14%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 326 33 11%
Divorced 3% 4% 613 701 88 14%
Widowed 3% 4% 473 534 61 12%
Never married 6% 7% 1,046 1,179 133 12%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 162 6 4%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 245 26 12%
Associate 2% 2% 405 477 72 17%
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,184 150 14%
Less than high school 6% 7% 613 673 60 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 321 321 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,420 -4 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,249 290 14%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 342 20 6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 46 5 12%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 34% 0% -2% 0% 0% 5% 127% 397% 5% 126% 396%
Sex
Female 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 159% 562% 23% 158% 559%
Male 38% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 105% 239% 0% 104% 238%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 35% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 141% 506% 0% 139% 502%
White, non-Hispanic 34% 0% -2% 0% 0% 14% 122% 359% 14% 121% 358%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 131% 410% 0% 130% 410%
All other races, non-Hispanic 38% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 132% 493% 0% 130% 490%
Country of birth
United States 33% 0% -2% 0% 0% 12% 123% 363% 11% 122% 362%
Other countries 36% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 144% 525% 0% 143% 521%
Highest education level
Graduate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0% 24% 113% 245% 24% 112% 242%
Bachelor 42% 0% -2% 0% 0% 25% 120% 324% 25% 118% 323%
Associate 33% 0% -2% 0% 0% 16% 127% 340% 16% 126% 339%
High school 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 133% 475% 0% 131% 473%
Less than high school 28% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 141% 718% 0% 139% 718%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0% 36% 93% 136% 35% 92% 134%
Second highest 40% 0% -2% 0% 0% 21% 118% 175% 21% 116% 173%
Middle 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 10% 140% 234% 10% 139% 232%
Second lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 205% 444% 23% 204% 444%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 226% 1,365%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0% 40% 94% 134% 40% 93% 133%
Second highest 39% 0% -2% 0% 0% 23% 118% 173% 23% 117% 171%
Middle 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 141% 235% 16% 140% 234%
Second lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 18% 193% 403% 18% 192% 402%
Lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 269% 1,377%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0% 47% 101% 169% 47% 100% 167%
Second highest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0% 33% 118% 237% 33% 117% 236%
Middle 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 136% 314% 15% 135% 312%
Second lowest 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 9% 165% 490% 9% 164% 488%
Lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 182% 1,027%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 119% 375% 0% 112% 365%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 143% 532% 0% 136% 520%
Male 66% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 101% 258% 0% 96% 251%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 128% 410% 0% 121% 396%
White, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -7% -5% 0% 14% 118% 372% 13% 112% 361%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 111% 323% 0% 105% 319%
All other races, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 106% 410% 0% 100% 395%
Country of birth
United States 70% 0% -7% -5% 0% 7% 118% 342% 7% 112% 336%
Other countries 59% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 121% 521% 0% 114% 514%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 21% 105% 271% 19% 99% 262%
Bachelor 78% 0% -7% -6% 0% 5% 107% 291% 5% 101% 283%
Associate 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 120% 329% 0% 114% 323%
High school 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 130% 483% 0% 124% 475%
Less than high school 55% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 126% 612% 0% 120% 595%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -6% -3% 37% 87% 124% 34% 82% 117%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -6% 0% 34% 117% 176% 33% 110% 170%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 28% 145% 258% 27% 138% 252%
Second lowest 61% 0% -6% -5% 0% 0% 204% 522% 0% 195% 514%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 117% 1,767%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -7% -6% -3% 40% 88% 125% 37% 82% 118%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 36% 117% 178% 35% 111% 171%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 29% 144% 261% 28% 137% 256%
Second lowest 62% 0% -6% -5% 0% 0% 197% 467% 0% 188% 459%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 116% 1,901%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 92% 0% -7% -6% -2% 42% 90% 149% 39% 85% 142%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -6% 0% 43% 119% 247% 40% 113% 241%
Middle 70% 0% -7% -5% 0% 31% 139% 330% 30% 132% 324%
Second lowest 60% 0% -7% -5% 0% 7% 176% 565% 7% 167% 551%
Lowest 32% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 66% 922% 0% 64% 905%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 116% 343% 0% 109% 336%
Sex
Female 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 137% 486% 0% 130% 477%
Male 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 99% 245% 0% 93% 237%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 65% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 124% 369% 0% 117% 361%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -7% -6% 0% 17% 115% 338% 15% 108% 332%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 112% 306% 0% 106% 302%
All other races, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 100% 327% 0% 93% 318%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 11% 116% 318% 10% 109% 309%
Other countries 62% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 116% 475% 0% 109% 457%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 25% 106% 255% 24% 100% 245%
Bachelor 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 8% 103% 272% 7% 97% 263%
Associate 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 118% 309% 0% 111% 303%
High school 62% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 124% 413% 0% 117% 403%
Less than high school 59% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 127% 547% 0% 120% 537%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -7% -6% -3% 39% 85% 121% 36% 79% 114%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 40% 114% 170% 37% 107% 165%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 29% 138% 246% 27% 130% 241%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 11% 189% 452% 10% 180% 444%
Lowest 36% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 123% 1,496%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -8% -6% -3% 41% 85% 121% 38% 80% 114%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 41% 116% 173% 39% 109% 167%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 139% 254% 30% 131% 246%
Second lowest 63% 0% -7% -5% 0% 13% 183% 414% 12% 174% 407%
Lowest 37% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 120% 1,544%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 44% 87% 139% 41% 82% 131%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 45% 117% 231% 43% 110% 224%
Middle 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 34% 136% 307% 32% 128% 302%
Second lowest 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 12% 167% 512% 11% 159% 501%
Lowest 35% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 89% 792% 0% 84% 781%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 45% 0% -2% 0% 0% 24% 46% 79% 23% 45% 78%
Sex
Female 43% 0% -2% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 47% 0% -2% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 50% 0% -2% 0% 0% 28% 50% 84% 27% 50% 83%
White, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -2% 0% 0% 23% 43% 74% 23% 43% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 37% 0% -2% 0% 0% 28% 51% 85% 28% 50% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 53% 0% -2% -1% 0% 24% 48% 90% 23% 47% 90%
Country of birth
United States 44% 0% -2% 0% 0% 23% 44% 75% 23% 44% 74%
Other countries 52% 0% -2% -1% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 53% 0% -2% -1% 0% 21% 41% 71% 21% 41% 70%
Bachelor 52% 0% -2% -1% 0% 22% 42% 77% 21% 42% 76%
Associate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0% 24% 45% 74% 24% 44% 73%
High school 40% 0% -2% 0% 0% 27% 48% 81% 26% 47% 81%
Less than high school 43% 0% -2% 0% 0% 33% 56% 90% 33% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 65% 0% -2% -1% 0% 17% 31% 47% 16% 30% 47%
Second highest 49% 0% -2% 0% 0% 24% 38% 56% 23% 37% 55%
Middle 43% 0% -2% 0% 0% 29% 43% 63% 29% 42% 62%
Second lowest 36% 0% -2% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 38% 51% 76%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 53% 70% 118%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 65% 0% -2% -1% 0% 16% 33% 50% 16% 33% 50%
Second highest 47% 0% -2% 0% 0% 23% 37% 57% 22% 37% 56%
Middle 43% 0% -2% 0% 0% 31% 43% 63% 30% 42% 63%
Second lowest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 37% 50% 76%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 52% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 67% 0% -2% -1% 0% 18% 36% 53% 17% 36% 53%
Second highest 47% 0% -2% 0% 0% 22% 38% 62% 22% 38% 61%
Middle 42% 0% -2% 0% 0% 28% 43% 69% 27% 42% 68%
Second lowest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0% 33% 50% 82% 33% 49% 82%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -17% -6% 0% 24% 47% 85% 16% 43% 80%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -22% -6% 0% 27% 53% 90% 17% 48% 89%
Male 79% 0% -14% -6% 0% 22% 43% 73% 16% 39% 69%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 51% 90% 23% 49% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -21% -6% 0% 23% 45% 81% 14% 41% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 26% 51% 83% 21% 49% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -76% -6% 0% 22% 46% 90% 6% 39% 83%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -18% -6% 0% 23% 46% 81% 16% 42% 76%
Other countries 81% 0% -15% -6% 0% 27% 54% 90% 19% 49% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 42% 75% 0% 35% 68%
Bachelor 88% 0% -53% -6% 0% 21% 43% 82% 7% 37% 76%
Associate 77% 0% -7% -6% 0% 24% 45% 76% 21% 43% 73%
High school 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 51% 89% 25% 49% 85%
Less than high school 75% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 57% 90% 28% 54% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -6% -5% 16% 31% 46% 0% 24% 41%
Second highest 85% 0% -25% -6% 0% 23% 38% 56% 15% 33% 50%
Middle 77% 0% -7% -6% 0% 29% 45% 65% 24% 42% 58%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -5% 0% 41% 55% 84% 37% 53% 77%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 58% 74% 135% 56% 71% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -6% -5% 16% 33% 49% 0% 23% 43%
Second highest 85% 0% -22% -6% 0% 22% 37% 58% 16% 33% 51%
Middle 77% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 45% 66% 25% 42% 59%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -5% 0% 39% 54% 85% 36% 52% 78%
Lowest 68% 0% -6% -5% 0% 57% 73% 127% 54% 70% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -100% -6% -5% 17% 35% 52% 0% 25% 45%
Second highest 86% 0% -22% -6% 0% 21% 39% 62% 15% 35% 57%
Middle 80% 0% -7% -6% 0% 27% 44% 73% 23% 42% 66%
Second lowest 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 35% 53% 88% 32% 51% 83%
Lowest 65% 0% -6% -5% 0% 50% 67% 108% 48% 65% 100%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -38% -6% 0% 24% 48% 84% 11% 43% 78%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -53% -6% 0% 28% 52% 90% 11% 47% 89%
Male 79% 0% -30% -6% 0% 22% 44% 73% 12% 40% 68%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -11% -6% 0% 27% 50% 88% 21% 46% 83%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -53% -6% 0% 23% 46% 81% 9% 40% 75%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -17% -6% 0% 26% 52% 84% 19% 49% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -100% -6% 0% 22% 45% 84% 0% 37% 78%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -37% -6% 0% 23% 47% 81% 12% 42% 75%
Other countries 82% 0% -53% -6% 0% 26% 51% 90% 8% 47% 89%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 43% 80% 0% 32% 68%
Bachelor 88% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 42% 79% 0% 33% 70%
Associate 74% 0% -9% -6% 0% 25% 47% 77% 21% 44% 73%
High school 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 50% 88% 23% 48% 83%
Less than high school 77% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 57% 90% 28% 54% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 31% 47% 0% 21% 40%
Second highest 85% 0% -45% -6% 0% 24% 39% 57% 11% 32% 49%
Middle 77% 0% -19% -6% 0% 31% 45% 65% 22% 42% 57%
Second lowest 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 41% 55% 84% 36% 52% 73%
Lowest 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 58% 74% 128% 55% 70% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 33% 49% 0% 21% 40%
Second highest 85% 0% -45% -6% 0% 23% 39% 58% 12% 32% 50%
Middle 75% 0% -17% -6% 0% 31% 45% 66% 24% 42% 56%
Second lowest 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 40% 54% 83% 36% 52% 73%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 57% 73% 122% 54% 70% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 35% 51% 0% 22% 43%
Second highest 86% 0% -45% -6% 0% 22% 40% 63% 10% 33% 55%
Middle 78% 0% -17% -6% 0% 29% 45% 72% 22% 42% 64%
Second lowest 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 37% 53% 88% 33% 51% 80%
Lowest 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 50% 67% 102% 47% 65% 95%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v3
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision C1.1.