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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Full Retirement Age (FRA)

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Male 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 61% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
80–89 49% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 71% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Divorced 62% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Widowed 34% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Bachelor 65% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Associate 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Less than high school 66% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
In poverty 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second highest 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Middle 64% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Lowest 57% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 74% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Male 80% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -11% -7% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -11% -6% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 83% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Country of birth
United States 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Other countries 78% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -13% -11% 0%
70–79 81% 0% -10% -8% 0%
80–89 78% 0% -7% -5% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 82% 0% -11% -7% 0%
Divorced 78% 0% -11% -5% 0%
Widowed 65% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Never married 81% 0% -11% -7% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -11% -5% 0%
Bachelor 83% 0% -11% -5% 0%
Associate 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
High school 74% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Less than high school 75% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
In poverty 78% 0% -11% -8% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 85% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Second highest 83% 0% -12% -6% 0%
Middle 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 87% 0% -11% -7% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 53% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 80% 0% -13% -8% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 42% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 39% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 56% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 38% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 50% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Lowest 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 50% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 68% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Male 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 71% 0% -8% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 65% 0% -8% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Other countries 68% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 71% 0% -10% -2% 0%
70–79 74% 0% -7% -2% 0%
80–89 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
90 or older 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 80% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Divorced 64% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Widowed 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 68% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 66% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Bachelor 68% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Associate 73% 0% -7% -2% 0%
High school 71% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Less than high school 69% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
In poverty 72% 0% -10% -5% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 46% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 75% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 80% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 77% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 77% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 39% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 81% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,478 12 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,966 7 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,512 5 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,955 11 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 578 1 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,498 12 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,668 12 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 647 1 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,178 2 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 818 4 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 836 4 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 702 7 1%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,597 4 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 766 1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,368 12 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 4,025 242 6%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,240 140 6%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,785 102 6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,122 63 6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,741 1,851 109 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 700 43 6%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 352 26 8%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,693 182 7%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,332 60 4%
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,402 1,517 115 8%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,429 92 6%
80–89 4% 4% 873 908 35 4%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 766 54 7%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,153 83 7%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 858 41 5%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,248 64 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 179 9 5%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 368 24 7%
Associate 3% 4% 630 706 75 12%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,791 97 5%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 980 35 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 243 242 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 3,041 201 7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 528 19 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 238 20 9%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 217 1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,822 3,398 575 20%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,766 239 15%
Male 3% 4% 1,296 1,632 336 25%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,141 177 18%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,125 1,377 252 22%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 500 74 17%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 379 70 22%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,190 420 23%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,207 154 14%
Age
60–69 4% 5% 945 1,169 224 23%
70–79 3% 4% 1,057 1,293 236 22%
80–89 3% 3% 628 724 96 15%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 211 18 9%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 577 107 22%
Divorced 4% 5% 687 836 148 21%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 549 62 12%
Never married 7% 9% 1,179 1,436 256 21%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 208 51 32%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 261 44 20%
Associate 2% 3% 460 557 96 21%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,485 256 20%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 887 126 16%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 579 578 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,819 -3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,197 2,740 542 24%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 329 15 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 173 17 11%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 144% 448%
Sex
Female 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 181% 643%
Male 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 118% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 160% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 148% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 145% 505%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 140% 415%
Other countries 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 162% 597%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 124% 263%
Bachelor 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 136% 359%
Associate 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 145% 393%
High school 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 152% 518%
Less than high school 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 160% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 48% 0% -2% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 107% 156%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 133% 200%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 159% 269%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 227% 504%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 252% 1,561%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -2% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 46% 108% 151%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 135% 201%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 160% 266%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 217% 450%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,581%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 55% 115% 193%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 138% 269%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 159% 363%
Second lowest 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 184% 514%
Lowest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 204% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 68% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 122% 394%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 148% 557%
Male 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 104% 266%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 126% 440%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 11% 130% 403% 10% 123% 393%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 59% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 122% 346%
All other races, non-Hispanic 65% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 98% 367%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 123% 358%
Other countries 58% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 118% 582%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -7% -5% 0% 17% 113% 278% 16% 106% 271%
Bachelor 77% 0% -7% -5% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 111% 302%
Associate 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 126% 342%
High school 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 136% 524%
Less than high school 55% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 126% 616%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 92% 0% -8% -6% -3% 40% 96% 138% 37% 90% 130%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -5% 0% 31% 128% 192% 30% 121% 185%
Middle 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 149% 265%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 209% 559%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 116% 2,015%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 42% 96% 137% 39% 90% 130%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -5% 0% 39% 129% 194% 36% 122% 187%
Middle 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 150% 267%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -4% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 205% 495%
Lowest 33% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 90% 2,137%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 46% 99% 163% 43% 93% 155%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -5% 0% 44% 131% 267% 41% 124% 258%
Middle 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 149% 350%
Second lowest 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 180% 566%
Lowest 31% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 35% 1,035%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 69% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 108% 343%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -12% -10% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 131% 495%
Male 67% 0% -12% -11% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 92% 234%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 64% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 113% 388%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -12% -10% 0% 17% 120% 343% 15% 108% 324%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 107% 326%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -13% -11% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 94% 318%
Country of birth
United States 72% 0% -12% -10% 0% 9% 120% 319% 8% 108% 307%
Other countries 62% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 109% 542%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -12% -10% 0% 21% 109% 259% 19% 98% 241%
Bachelor 80% 0% -13% -10% 0% 13% 110% 278% 10% 98% 258%
Associate 69% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 111% 304%
High school 62% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 117% 428%
Less than high school 58% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 112% 582%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -13% -11% -6% 40% 88% 127% 34% 79% 114%
Second highest 81% 0% -12% -11% 0% 34% 118% 177% 30% 106% 166%
Middle 71% 0% -12% -10% 0% 30% 144% 246% 27% 130% 239%
Second lowest 64% 0% -12% -9% 0% 9% 196% 466% 8% 178% 455%
Lowest 38% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 113% 1,667%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -13% -11% -7% 43% 89% 127% 38% 79% 115%
Second highest 81% 0% -12% -11% 0% 38% 119% 179% 34% 107% 168%
Middle 71% 0% -12% -10% 0% 27% 144% 249% 25% 129% 241%
Second lowest 65% 0% -12% -9% 0% 13% 192% 442% 12% 174% 428%
Lowest 37% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 111% 1,711%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -13% -11% -5% 45% 91% 145% 40% 81% 134%
Second highest 83% 0% -12% -10% 0% 46% 122% 227% 41% 109% 214%
Middle 73% 0% -12% -10% 0% 31% 140% 302% 29% 126% 295%
Second lowest 62% 0% -12% -9% 0% 11% 172% 532% 10% 157% 518%
Lowest 35% 0% -12% -6% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 73% 974%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -17% -15% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 107% 344%
Sex
Female 72% 0% -17% -14% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 130% 498%
Male 68% 0% -18% -15% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 91% 235%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 65% 0% -17% -15% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 111% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -18% -15% 0% 21% 126% 363% 17% 108% 338%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -17% -15% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 104% 295%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -18% -15% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 96% 302%
Country of birth
United States 72% 0% -17% -15% 0% 11% 125% 324% 9% 107% 307%
Other countries 63% 0% -18% -15% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 105% 487%
Highest education level
Graduate 82% 0% -18% -15% 0% 30% 116% 286% 24% 99% 255%
Bachelor 80% 0% -18% -15% 0% 9% 115% 300% 7% 98% 268%
Associate 67% 0% -17% -15% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 111% 308%
High school 64% 0% -17% -15% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 114% 417%
Less than high school 59% 0% -18% -15% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 111% 540%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -18% -16% -9% 45% 95% 133% 37% 81% 115%
Second highest 82% 0% -18% -16% 0% 43% 124% 181% 36% 105% 164%
Middle 70% 0% -17% -15% 0% 23% 149% 251% 20% 128% 239%
Second lowest 64% 0% -17% -13% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 182% 481%
Lowest 39% 0% -17% -8% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 106% 1,447%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -18% -16% -9% 46% 95% 133% 38% 81% 115%
Second highest 81% 0% -18% -16% 0% 44% 123% 182% 37% 105% 167%
Middle 71% 0% -17% -15% 0% 30% 149% 254% 26% 129% 241%
Second lowest 64% 0% -17% -13% 0% 2% 202% 466% 2% 176% 446%
Lowest 39% 0% -17% -8% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 107% 1,474%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -18% -15% -8% 50% 98% 152% 42% 83% 136%
Second highest 84% 0% -18% -15% 0% 46% 125% 235% 38% 106% 218%
Middle 73% 0% -17% -15% 0% 36% 146% 316% 31% 126% 301%
Second lowest 63% 0% -17% -13% 0% 8% 183% 543% 7% 159% 518%
Lowest 35% 0% -17% -12% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 62% 775%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 37% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 35% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 51% 90%
Male 39% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 37% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 22% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 89%
Country of birth
United States 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 72%
Bachelor 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 21% 42% 75%
Associate 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 23% 45% 75%
High school 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 82%
Less than high school 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 56% 0% -2% -1% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 30% 47%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 35% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 27% 43% 64%
Second lowest 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 69% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 54% 0% -2% -1% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 33% 50%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 65%
Second lowest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 80%
Lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 55% 0% -2% -1% 0% 17% 36% 54% 16% 36% 53%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 37% 63%
Middle 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 49% 85%
Lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 44% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 80% 0% -16% -6% 0% 24% 47% 82% 17% 43% 77%
Sex
Female 79% 0% -17% -6% 0% 27% 52% 90% 20% 48% 87%
Male 81% 0% -16% -6% 0% 22% 43% 71% 16% 39% 67%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 52% 90% 23% 49% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 81% 0% -20% -6% 0% 23% 45% 78% 15% 41% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -8% -5% 0% 26% 51% 85% 22% 49% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -37% -6% 0% 22% 45% 81% 10% 41% 75%
Country of birth
United States 80% 0% -17% -6% 0% 23% 46% 78% 17% 42% 74%
Other countries 82% 0% -8% -6% 0% 26% 53% 90% 20% 50% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 41% 74% 0% 34% 67%
Bachelor 88% 0% -30% -6% 0% 21% 42% 79% 10% 37% 73%
Associate 78% 0% -8% -6% 0% 24% 46% 74% 21% 43% 71%
High school 74% 0% -7% -5% 0% 28% 50% 87% 24% 48% 83%
Less than high school 76% 0% -7% -5% 0% 31% 56% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -92% -6% -5% 15% 31% 46% 2% 24% 41%
Second highest 86% 0% -21% -6% 0% 23% 38% 56% 17% 34% 50%
Middle 80% 0% -8% -6% 0% 30% 45% 65% 25% 42% 59%
Second lowest 72% 0% -7% -5% 0% 40% 55% 82% 37% 52% 74%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 56% 73% 124% 54% 70% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -6% -5% 15% 33% 49% 0% 24% 43%
Second highest 87% 0% -19% -6% 0% 22% 37% 58% 18% 34% 52%
Middle 80% 0% -8% -6% 0% 30% 45% 67% 25% 42% 61%
Second lowest 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 38% 54% 82% 36% 52% 75%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 55% 71% 116% 52% 69% 109%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -100% -6% -5% 16% 35% 51% 0% 25% 45%
Second highest 87% 0% -21% -6% 0% 22% 39% 62% 16% 35% 56%
Middle 80% 0% -8% -6% 0% 28% 45% 72% 24% 43% 66%
Second lowest 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 35% 52% 85% 32% 50% 80%
Lowest 65% 0% -7% -5% 0% 50% 66% 102% 47% 63% 96%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -55% -11% 0% 24% 47% 83% 9% 41% 75%
Sex
Female 79% 0% -70% -11% 0% 28% 52% 90% 6% 45% 85%
Male 79% 0% -41% -11% 0% 22% 43% 72% 10% 37% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -25% -11% 0% 27% 50% 89% 20% 45% 82%
White, non-Hispanic 81% 0% -70% -11% 0% 23% 45% 80% 6% 37% 71%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -29% -11% 0% 29% 53% 84% 17% 48% 78%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -100% -12% 0% 24% 45% 85% 0% 36% 74%
Country of birth
United States 79% 0% -55% -11% 0% 24% 46% 80% 9% 40% 72%
Other countries 82% 0% -71% -11% 0% 27% 53% 90% 6% 46% 88%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -100% -12% 0% 22% 42% 77% 0% 28% 64%
Bachelor 87% 0% -100% -12% 0% 21% 42% 81% 0% 32% 69%
Associate 76% 0% -27% -11% 0% 25% 46% 77% 19% 41% 71%
High school 72% 0% -22% -11% 0% 28% 51% 87% 22% 46% 82%
Less than high school 75% 0% -13% -11% 0% 31% 55% 90% 26% 51% 88%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -12% -10% 16% 31% 46% 0% 20% 37%
Second highest 86% 0% -70% -12% 0% 24% 39% 57% 8% 30% 47%
Middle 79% 0% -30% -11% 0% 31% 45% 65% 20% 39% 55%
Second lowest 71% 0% -21% -11% 0% 40% 54% 81% 33% 50% 70%
Lowest 66% 0% -12% -10% 0% 57% 74% 125% 52% 69% 107%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -13% -10% 15% 34% 48% 0% 19% 37%
Second highest 86% 0% -56% -12% 0% 24% 39% 59% 10% 29% 47%
Middle 78% 0% -29% -11% 0% 31% 45% 67% 21% 40% 56%
Second lowest 71% 0% -14% -11% 0% 39% 53% 81% 33% 50% 69%
Lowest 66% 0% -12% -10% 0% 56% 73% 118% 51% 68% 103%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -100% -13% -10% 16% 35% 51% 0% 20% 40%
Second highest 87% 0% -56% -12% 0% 23% 40% 63% 9% 31% 53%
Middle 80% 0% -28% -11% 0% 29% 45% 72% 20% 40% 61%
Second lowest 70% 0% -14% -11% 0% 35% 52% 86% 30% 49% 76%
Lowest 65% 0% -12% -10% 0% 50% 67% 104% 45% 63% 91%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -86% -16% 0% 23% 47% 84% 4% 38% 73%
Sex
Female 79% 0% -100% -16% 0% 28% 53% 90% 0% 42% 83%
Male 80% 0% -72% -16% 0% 22% 43% 72% 6% 34% 62%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -37% -16% 0% 26% 50% 88% 15% 43% 78%
White, non-Hispanic 81% 0% -100% -16% 0% 22% 45% 81% 0% 34% 69%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -50% -16% 0% 27% 52% 84% 11% 44% 75%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -100% -17% 0% 22% 43% 83% 0% 30% 66%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -72% -16% 0% 23% 46% 80% 5% 37% 70%
Other countries 82% 0% -100% -16% 0% 26% 52% 90% 0% 41% 83%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -100% -17% 0% 21% 42% 79% 0% 25% 61%
Bachelor 88% 0% -100% -17% 0% 21% 42% 82% 0% 27% 65%
Associate 75% 0% -37% -16% 0% 23% 46% 76% 15% 39% 67%
High school 73% 0% -30% -16% 0% 27% 50% 89% 19% 44% 79%
Less than high school 76% 0% -24% -16% 0% 31% 56% 90% 24% 49% 89%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -18% -15% 15% 31% 46% 0% 18% 34%
Second highest 86% 0% -86% -17% 0% 23% 39% 56% 4% 27% 44%
Middle 78% 0% -44% -16% 0% 31% 45% 65% 17% 36% 52%
Second lowest 69% 0% -28% -16% 0% 40% 55% 82% 29% 50% 68%
Lowest 67% 0% -18% -15% 0% 57% 75% 133% 49% 66% 107%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -25% -15% 15% 33% 47% 0% 17% 34%
Second highest 86% 0% -79% -17% 0% 22% 38% 58% 5% 27% 44%
Middle 77% 0% -43% -16% 0% 31% 45% 66% 18% 37% 52%
Second lowest 70% 0% -27% -16% 0% 38% 54% 84% 30% 49% 68%
Lowest 68% 0% -17% -15% 0% 56% 74% 124% 49% 67% 105%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -100% -24% -15% 16% 35% 50% 0% 18% 37%
Second highest 86% 0% -85% -17% 0% 22% 40% 62% 4% 28% 48%
Middle 79% 0% -50% -16% 0% 27% 45% 72% 14% 36% 57%
Second lowest 70% 0% -26% -16% 0% 35% 53% 85% 27% 48% 72%
Lowest 66% 0% -17% -15% 0% 51% 67% 108% 44% 61% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision C1.3.