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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce the Cost-of-Living
Adjustment (COLA)

Details: Base it on the Chained Consumer Price Index CPI

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 90% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Male 88% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 83% 0% -1% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Other countries 86% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 71% 0% -1% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
80–89 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
90 or older 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Marital status
Married 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Divorced 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Widowed 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Never married 87% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Bachelor 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Associate 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
High school 90% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Less than high school 87% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
In poverty 83% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 93% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Middle 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Second lowest 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Lowest 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Disabled worker only 71% 0% -1% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Male 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 89% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Other countries 93% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 69% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -7% -7% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Divorced 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widowed 98% 0% -7% -6% -2%
Never married 87% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Associate 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
High school 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Less than high school 87% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
In poverty 85% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second highest 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Middle 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second lowest 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Lowest 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -7% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Disabled worker only 72% 0% -5% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Male 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Other countries 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 69% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -11% -8% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Divorced 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widowed 98% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Never married 89% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Associate 90% 0% -8% -4% -1%
High school 90% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Less than high school 87% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
In poverty 85% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 93% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Middle 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Second lowest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Lowest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 96% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 94% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Disabled worker only 75% 0% -6% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 33% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
80–89 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 33% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 32% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 32% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 35% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 58% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 40% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Male 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 68% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 87% 0% -5% -2% 0%
90 or older 78% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 61% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Divorced 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widowed 76% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Never married 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 50% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Bachelor 61% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Associate 67% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 73% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 55% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 72% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 84% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 85% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 61% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 79% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 69% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 70% 0% -4% -1% 0%
80–89 88% 0% -6% -3% 0%
90 or older 91% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Marital status
Married 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 82% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Never married 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 58% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Bachelor 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 70% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Less than high school 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
In poverty 77% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 55% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 74% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second lowest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 82% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 69% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,597 131 3%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 2,042 83 4%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,555 47 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 9% 672 698 26 3%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 2,010 67 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 9% 577 608 30 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 280 7 2%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,583 97 3%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 1,013 33 3%
Age
60–69 7% 8% 1,655 1,714 59 3%
70–79 4% 5% 1,346 1,406 60 4%
80–89 3% 3% 417 429 12 2%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 668 22 3%
Divorced 9% 10% 1,175 1,229 53 4%
Widowed 6% 7% 813 853 40 4%
Never married 16% 17% 832 847 15 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 93 2 2%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 331 9 2%
Associate 4% 5% 694 733 38 5%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,651 58 3%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 788 23 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 132 131 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,428 72 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 703 38 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 202 12 6%
Disabled worker only 9% 10% 257 264 7 2%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 4,267 485 12%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,374 275 13%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,893 210 12%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 1,058 1,198 140 13%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,741 1,954 212 12%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 745 88 13%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 6% 326 370 43 13%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,811 300 11%
Other countries 7% 8% 1,271 1,456 185 14%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,469 67 4%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,476 139 10%
80–89 4% 5% 873 1,087 213 24%
90 or older 2% 3% 170 235 65 38%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 785 74 10%
Divorced 7% 8% 1,070 1,214 143 13%
Widowed 5% 7% 817 999 181 22%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,270 86 7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 193 24 14%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 400 56 16%
Associate 3% 4% 630 728 97 15%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,908 213 12%
Less than high school 12% 14% 944 1,037 93 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 486 485 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 3,124 284 10%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 5% 508 663 154 30%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 255 37 16%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 226 9 4%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 3,211 388 13%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,739 212 13%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,472 176 13%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,079 115 12%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,125 1,325 200 17%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 467 41 9%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 340 31 10%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,057 287 16%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,154 101 9%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 983 37 4%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,196 138 13%
80–89 3% 3% 628 769 140 22%
90 or older 2% 3% 192 264 71 37%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 535 65 13%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 769 82 11%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 619 132 27%
Never married 7% 8% 1,179 1,288 108 9%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 172 16 10%
Bachelor 1% 2% 216 273 57 26%
Associate 2% 3% 460 511 51 11%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,413 184 14%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 841 80 10%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 390 390 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,821 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,439 241 10%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 430 116 37%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 178 22 14%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 165 8 5%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 08/18/2025
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 139% 437%
Sex
Female 82% 0% -5% -3% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 175% 625%
Male 74% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 115% 257%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 156% 557%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 135% 392%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 144% 462%
All other races, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 141% 491%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 136% 401%
Other countries 76% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 158% 577%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 23% 125% 264% 23% 120% 251%
Bachelor 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 22% 137% 362% 22% 132% 346%
Associate 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 141% 379%
High school 74% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 148% 506%
Less than high school 65% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 156% 779%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -5% -3% -1% 39% 108% 157% 39% 104% 150%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 24% 134% 201% 24% 129% 192%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 154% 258%
Second lowest 72% 0% -5% -2% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 220% 488%
Lowest 59% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 245% 1,512%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 47% 108% 152% 46% 104% 145%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 25% 136% 202% 25% 131% 193%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 156% 254%
Second lowest 73% 0% -5% -2% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 210% 440%
Lowest 55% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 298% 1,546%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 56% 115% 194% 55% 111% 185%
Second highest 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 36% 139% 269% 36% 133% 258%
Middle 82% 0% -5% -3% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 153% 349%
Second lowest 72% 0% -4% -2% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 179% 507%
Lowest 52% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 199% 1,113%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 404% 0% 124% 385%
Sex
Female 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 156% 570% 0% 150% 542%
Male 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 110% 275% 0% 106% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 74% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 447% 0% 129% 426%
White, non-Hispanic 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 130% 403% 11% 125% 385%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 125% 345%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 104% 383% 0% 100% 363%
Country of birth
United States 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 6% 130% 369% 6% 125% 353%
Other countries 70% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 602% 0% 120% 570%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -5% -4% -1% 17% 113% 278% 17% 108% 266%
Bachelor 85% 0% -5% -4% -1% 5% 117% 311% 5% 113% 295%
Associate 81% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 348% 0% 128% 333%
High school 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 143% 533% 0% 138% 513%
Less than high school 68% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 627% 0% 129% 598%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -5% -4% -1% 40% 96% 138% 39% 92% 131%
Second highest 89% 0% -5% -3% -1% 31% 128% 192% 31% 123% 184%
Middle 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 26% 157% 271% 26% 151% 260%
Second lowest 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 212% 539%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 118% 1,981%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 42% 96% 137% 41% 92% 131%
Second highest 90% 0% -5% -3% -1% 39% 129% 194% 38% 124% 185%
Middle 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 24% 159% 274% 24% 153% 261%
Second lowest 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 208% 482%
Lowest 49% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 93% 2,114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 46% 99% 163% 45% 95% 154%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 44% 131% 267% 43% 125% 252%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 35% 158% 359% 35% 152% 344%
Second lowest 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 182% 550%
Lowest 45% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 37% 1,013%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 120% 357% 0% 115% 341%
Sex
Female 85% 0% -6% -4% -1% 5% 145% 519% 5% 139% 495%
Male 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 103% 246% 0% 99% 236%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 401% 0% 121% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 17% 120% 343% 17% 115% 326%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 114% 321%
All other races, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 105% 349% 0% 101% 332%
Country of birth
United States 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 9% 120% 319% 9% 115% 304%
Other countries 73% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 121% 565% 0% 117% 537%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -1% 21% 109% 259% 21% 104% 246%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 13% 110% 278% 12% 105% 262%
Associate 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 124% 318% 0% 119% 305%
High school 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 441% 0% 125% 423%
Less than high school 72% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 594% 0% 121% 562%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 40% 88% 127% 39% 84% 121%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 34% 118% 177% 34% 113% 168%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 30% 144% 246% 30% 138% 235%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 9% 196% 466% 9% 189% 444%
Lowest 55% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 119% 1,657%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 43% 89% 127% 42% 85% 121%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 38% 119% 179% 38% 114% 170%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 27% 144% 249% 27% 138% 237%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 13% 192% 442% 13% 185% 422%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 123% 1,686%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 45% 91% 145% 44% 87% 138%
Second highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -1% 46% 122% 227% 45% 117% 215%
Middle 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 31% 140% 302% 31% 134% 288%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 172% 532% 11% 166% 507%
Lowest 50% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 79% 947%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 366% 0% 120% 350%
Sex
Female 85% 0% -6% -4% -1% 1% 149% 531% 1% 143% 505%
Male 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 107% 252% 0% 103% 242%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 400% 0% 124% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 21% 126% 363% 21% 120% 346%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 121% 306% 0% 117% 296%
All other races, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -5% -4% -2% 0% 113% 335% 0% 107% 319%
Country of birth
United States 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 125% 324% 11% 120% 309%
Other countries 73% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 123% 516% 0% 118% 491%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -2% 30% 116% 286% 30% 111% 271%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 9% 115% 300% 9% 110% 284%
Associate 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 325% 0% 124% 309%
High school 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 439% 0% 127% 417%
Less than high school 72% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 578% 0% 125% 539%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 45% 95% 133% 44% 91% 126%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -4% -1% 43% 124% 181% 42% 119% 172%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 23% 149% 251% 23% 142% 239%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 208% 500% 0% 200% 475%
Lowest 54% 0% -6% -4% -1% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 120% 1,475%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 97% 0% -5% -4% -2% 46% 95% 133% 45% 91% 126%
Second highest 92% 0% -5% -4% -1% 44% 123% 182% 43% 118% 173%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 30% 149% 254% 30% 143% 242%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 2% 202% 466% 2% 194% 443%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 121% 1,509%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 97% 0% -5% -4% -2% 50% 98% 152% 49% 94% 145%
Second highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -1% 46% 125% 235% 45% 119% 225%
Middle 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 36% 146% 316% 35% 140% 300%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 8% 183% 543% 8% 176% 515%
Lowest 50% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 73% 797% 0% 72% 748%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 51% 90%
Male 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 75%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 89%
Country of birth
United States 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 71%
Bachelor 38% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 75%
Associate 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 75%
High school 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 82%
Less than high school 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 43% 63%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 78%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 56%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 65%
Second lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 80%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 16% 36% 53%
Second highest 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 69%
Second lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 85%
Lowest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 23% 46% 81%
Sex
Female 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 42% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 44% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 25% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 80%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 45% 78%
Other countries 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 48% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 20% 41% 74%
Bachelor 39% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Associate 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 50% 86%
Less than high school 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 30% 45%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 29% 45% 64%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 48%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 66%
Second lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 81%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 34% 51%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 61%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 71%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 84%
Lowest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 49% 65% 100%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 52% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 23% 45% 85%
Country of birth
United States 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Other countries 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 48% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 76%
Bachelor 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 76%
High school 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 50% 87%
Less than high school 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 31% 45%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 56%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 80%
Lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 23% 39% 58%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 53% 80%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 72% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 34% 50%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 62%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 70%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 25% 50% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 82%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Other countries 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Bachelor 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 81%
Associate 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 75%
High school 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 88%
Less than high school 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 45%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 55%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 39% 55% 81%
Lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 130%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 57%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 73% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 15% 34% 49%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 61%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 71%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 52% 84%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 107%
SOURCE: SSA Analytics and Improvements, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision A3.