Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce the Cost-of-Living
Adjustment (COLA)

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 90% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Sex
Female 91% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Male 89% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 83% 0% -2% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -2% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Other countries 87% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 71% 0% -2% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -2% -2% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -2% -2% -2%
90 or older 100% 0% -2% -2% -2%
Marital status
Married 89% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Divorced 90% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Widowed 95% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Never married 87% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Bachelor 91% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Associate 89% 0% -2% -2% 0%
High school 90% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Less than high school 87% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -2% -2% -1%
In poverty 84% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 93% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Middle 90% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Second lowest 90% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Lowest 89% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 90% 0% -2% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -2% -2% -1%
Disabled worker only 72% 0% -2% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Male 89% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 93% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 90% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Other countries 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 69% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -8% -8% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Divorced 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Widowed 97% 0% -8% -6% -2%
Never married 87% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Associate 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
High school 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Less than high school 87% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
In poverty 86% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Middle 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Lowest 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 96% 0% -8% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 93% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Disabled worker only 74% 0% -6% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Male 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Other countries 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 70% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 99% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -11% -8% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Divorced 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widowed 98% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Never married 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Associate 90% 0% -8% -4% -1%
High school 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Less than high school 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
In poverty 86% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -8% -3% -1%
Middle 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Second lowest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Lowest 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 96% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 94% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Disabled worker only 77% 0% -6% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 33% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 44% 0% -2% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 38% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 34% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widowed 46% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Never married 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 46% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 35% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 67% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Lowest 76% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 34% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 53% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 36% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Male 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 29% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 68% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 86% 0% -5% -2% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 60% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Divorced 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 76% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Never married 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 50% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Bachelor 60% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Associate 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 54% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 84% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 82% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 79% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 64% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 61% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 69% 0% -4% -1% 0%
80–89 86% 0% -6% -2% 0%
90 or older 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Marital status
Married 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 81% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Never married 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 55% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 73% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second lowest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 84% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 81% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 48% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,418
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,908
Male 4% 5% 1,450 1,510
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 570 618
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,804 1,900
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 660
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 240
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,588
Other countries 7% 7% 765 830
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,486 1,544
70–79 4% 5% 1,318 1,404
80–89 3% 3% 381 417
90 or older 2% 2% 53 54 0
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 486
Divorced 9% 10% 1,207 1,272
Widowed 6% 6% 740 802
Never married 16% 17% 821 859
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 101
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 286
Associate 4% 4% 626 663
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,613
Less than high school 12% 13% 717 755
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 182
In poverty 100% 100% 3,237 3,236 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,252 2,364
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 632
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 147
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 275
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,725
Sex
Female 4% 5% 1,862 2,129
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,597
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 986
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,695
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 9% 679 760
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 284
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,561
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,164
Age
60–69 5% 6% 1,277 1,333
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,267
80–89 3% 4% 734 874
90 or older 3% 3% 193 251
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 487
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,081
Widowed 5% 6% 750 903
Never married 12% 13% 1,154 1,255
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 106
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 329
Associate 3% 3% 555 631
High school 6% 7% 1,549 1,766
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 894
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 419
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,500 2,744
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 5% 498 639
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 109
Disabled worker only 6% 7% 212 233
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,743
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,492
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,251
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 769 893
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,136
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 430
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 284
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,795
Other countries 4% 4% 839 948
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 828
70–79 3% 3% 906 996
80–89 3% 3% 585 727
90 or older 2% 2% 139 192
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 320
Divorced 3% 4% 613 681
Widowed 3% 4% 473 575
Never married 6% 7% 1,046 1,167
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 172
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 248
Associate 2% 2% 405 467
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,176
Less than high school 6% 7% 613 678
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 321
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,422 -3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,181
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 399
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 42
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 120
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 82% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Male 76% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 81% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Other countries 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Associate 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
High school 75% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 67% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 61% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 87% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 81% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Second lowest 75% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 58% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 89% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 81% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Second lowest 76% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 54% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 81% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Male 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 85% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 84% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Other countries 71% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Bachelor 85% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Associate 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
High school 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 70% 0% -4% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 85% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 54% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 90% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 81% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 51% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 92% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 81% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 48% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 84% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 0%
Male 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 86% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 85% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Other countries 73% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Associate 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
High school 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 73% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 81% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 56% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 92% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 54% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 97% 0% -5% -4% -2%
Second highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -1%
Middle 88% 0% -5% -3% -1%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Lowest 51% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 35% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 50% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 38% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 42% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 48% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 46% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 39% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 48% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 41% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 46% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 39% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.