2003 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

VI. APPENDICES
F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections in dollars of the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust Fund. It provides the means to track the progress of the funds during the projection period. Meaningful comparison of current dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the tendency toward inflation. Some means of removing inflation is thus generally desirable. Several economic series, or indices, are provided to allow current dollars to be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other aspects of economic growth during the projection period.

The selection of a particular index for adjustment of current dollars depends upon the analyst's decision as to which index provides the most useful standard for adjusting dollar amounts, over time, to create values that are appropriately comparable. Table VI.F7 presents five such indices for adjustment. Adjustment of any series of values is accomplished by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index values for the year. This adjustment removes the inflation in the index from the series of values.

One of the most common forms of standardization is based on some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. One such price index is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, hereafter referred to as CPI) which is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This is the index used to determine annual increases in OASDI monthly benefits payable after the year of initial eligibility. The CPI is assumed to increase ultimately at annual rates of 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions, respectively. Constant-dollar values (those adjusted by dividing by the CPI) indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time. Constant-dollar values are provided in table VI.F8.

Another type of standardization combines the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The wage index presented here is the SSA average wage index, as defined in section 215(i)(1)(G) of the Social Security Act. This index is used to make annual adjustments to many earnings-related quantities embodied in the Social Security Act, such as the contribution and benefit base. The average annual wage is assumed to increase ultimately by 3.6, 4.1, and 4.6 percent under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series relative to the standard-of-living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll index adjusts for the effects of changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to OASDI taxation, adjusted for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. Values adjusted by dividing by the taxable payroll indicate the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of payroll over time.

The GDP index adjusts for the growth in the aggregate amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted by GDP (see appendix VI.F.2) indicate their relative share of the total output of the economy. No explicit assumptions are made about growth in taxable payroll or GDP. These series are computed reflecting the other more basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of adjusting current dollars. The series of interest-rate factors included here is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds for each year. This series is slightly different from the interest rates used to create summarized values elsewhere in this report, where the actual yield on currently-held trust fund assets is used for each year. Ultimate nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, are assumed to be approximately 5.7, 6.0, and 6.2 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.F7.--Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2002-80

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year
Adjusted
CPI 1
SSA average
wage index 2
Taxable
payroll 3
Gross
domestic
product
Compound
interest-rate
factor 4
Intermediate:
 
2002
97.70
$33,476.75
$4,213
$10,445
0.9531
 
2003
100.00
34,730.66
4,387
10,915
1.0000
 
2004
102.39
36,202.65
4,612
11,518
1.0626
 
2005
105.15
37,733.96
4,866
12,182
1.1311
 
2006
108.22
39,338.44
5,140
12,888
1.2044
 
2007
111.47
41,033.61
5,418
13,625
1.2817
 
2008
114.81
42,771.99
5,702
14,372
1.3621
 
2009
118.26
44,566.15
5,994
15,137
1.4468
 
2010
121.80
46,409.05
6,294
15,925
1.5352
 
2011
125.45
48,325.83
6,601
16,740
1.6287
 
2012
129.22
50,293.80
6,911
17,575
1.7279
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
141.20
56,704.95
7,923
20,245
2.0632
 
2020
163.69
69,129.89
9,876
25,453
2.7728
 
2025
189.77
84,436.77
12,272
31,911
3.7264
 
2030
219.99
103,181.85
15,253
40,025
5.0080
 
2035
255.03
126,323.87
18,987
50,280
6.7303
 
2040
295.65
154,612.31
23,622
63,113
9.0450
 
2045
342.74
189,219.39
29,320
79,037
12.1557
 
2050
397.33
231,372.27
36,302
98,759
16.3362
 
2055
460.61
282,819.44
44,906
123,302
21.9545
 
2060
533.97
345,826.67
55,582
154,043
29.5050
 
2065
619.02
422,895.04
68,778
192,407
39.6522
 
2070
717.62
517,152.80
85,037
240,146
53.2893
 
2075
831.91
632,286.63
105,046
299,479
71.6164
 
2080
964.42
772,985.34
129,710
373,322
96.2464
Low Cost:
 
2002
97.87
33,547.79
4,213
10,447
.9531
 
2003
100.00
34,907.44
4,425
11,003
1.0000
 
2004
101.98
36,337.05
4,664
11,622
1.0617
 
2005
104.02
37,740.22
4,920
12,250
1.1255
 
2006
106.11
39,121.33
5,180
12,892
1.1914
 
2007
108.22
40,568.05
5,443
13,560
1.2604
 
2008
110.39
42,055.17
5,716
14,250
1.3333
 
2009
112.60
43,599.78
5,994
14,961
1.4105
 
2010
114.84
45,172.07
6,278
15,688
1.4922
 
2011
117.15
46,792.70
6,567
16,426
1.5786
 
2012
119.49
48,448.46
6,857
17,173
1.6700
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
126.80
53,839.99
7,781
19,532
1.9772
 
2020
140.00
64,068.47
9,532
24,028
2.6198
 
2025
154.57
76,333.35
11,642
29,481
3.4713
 
2030
170.66
90,964.55
14,246
36,248
4.5995
 
2035
188.42
108,612.69
17,509
44,756
6.0943
 
2040
208.03
129,692.93
21,561
55,348
8.0750
 
2045
229.69
154,886.85
26,552
68,445
10.6995
 
2050
253.59
184,945.36
32,673
84,582
14.1769
 
2055
279.99
220,819.42
40,217
104,553
18.7846
 
2060
309.13
263,768.82
49,587
129,465
24.8898
 
2065
341.30
315,097.23
61,212
160,503
32.9791
 
2070
376.82
376,440.49
75,555
198,967
43.6977
 
2075
416.04
449,605.62
93,181
246,464
57.8998
 
2080
459.35
536,886.80
114,829
305,072
76.7178
High Cost:
 
2002
97.54
33,417.83
4,203
10,417
.9531
 
2003
100.00
34,208.13
4,292
10,707
1.0000
 
2004
102.99
36,009.40
4,545
11,398
1.0713
 
2005
107.60
38,058.89
4,842
12,227
1.1585
 
2006
113.89
39,853.26
5,103
12,937
1.2513
 
2007
120.44
42,279.32
5,416
13,868
1.3568
 
2008
126.32
45,170.39
5,844
15,025
1.4705
 
2009
131.55
47,441.85
6,202
15,936
1.5708
 
2010
136.81
49,588.16
6,548
16,809
1.6710
 
2011
142.28
51,840.85
6,887
17,731
1.7763
 
2012
147.97
54,216.93
7,234
18,703
1.8883
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
166.44
62,031.34
8,398
21,866
2.2684
 
2020
202.50
77,491.44
10,683
28,177
3.0796
 
2025
246.38
97,067.37
13,548
36,206
4.1807
 
2030
299.75
121,656.90
17,157
46,481
5.6756
 
2035
364.70
152,703.44
21,692
59,575
7.7051
 
2040
443.71
191,535.30
27,329
76,081
10.4602
 
2045
539.84
240,156.90
34,245
96,656
14.2004
 
2050
656.80
300,665.66
42,713
122,273
19.2781
 
2055
799.10
376,175.17
53,136
154,303
26.1714
 
2060
972.22
470,698.27
66,038
194,554
35.5294
 
2065
1,182.86
588,940.29
81,887
244,766
48.2337
 
2070
1,439.13
736,885.62
101,354
307,391
65.4806
 
2075
1,750.92
921,996.23
125,284
385,540
88.8945
 
2080
2,130.26
1,153,884.89
154,821
483,424
120.6805

1The CPI used to adjust OASDI benefits is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. The values shown are adjusted by dividing the calendar-year annual average CPI by the analogous value for 2003, and multiplying the result by 100, thereby initializing the CPI at 100 for 2003.

2The "SSA average wage index" is defined in the glossary as "Average wage index;" it is used in the calculations of initial benefits and the automatic adjustment of the contribution and benefit base and other wage-indexed program amounts.

3Taxable payroll consists of total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to include deemed wages based on military service through calendar year 2001 and to reflect the lower effective contribution rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages."

4The compound interest-rate factor is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the year, under each alternative.

Table VI.F8 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in constant 2003 dollars (i.e., adjusted by the CPI indexing series as discussed above). Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. Income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, income from taxation of benefits, and miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the OASI and DI Trust Funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. These estimates are based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions.

Table VI.F8.--Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Constant 2003 Dollars,1
Calendar Years 2003-80

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2003
$555.0
$87.5
$642.5
$477.9
$1,542.6
 
2004
568.5
95.1
663.5
487.2
1,682.9
 
2005
586.7
103.9
690.7
496.8
1,832.7
 
2006
601.3
113.6
714.9
506.0
1,989.5
 
2007
617.0
123.7
740.8
518.4
2,153.9
 
2008
630.7
133.9
764.6
532.9
2,322.9
 
2009
644.2
143.7
787.9
549.6
2,493.5
 
2010
657.6
153.5
811.1
567.7
2,664.4
 
2011
672.1
163.1
835.2
587.3
2,834.7
 
2012
684.6
172.6
857.2
608.3
3,001.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
721.5
198.7
920.2
683.4
3,452.0
 
2020
782.3
227.7
1,009.9
839.8
3,920.6
 
2025
845.2
228.8
1,074.0
1,009.7
3,885.2
 
2030
912.0
198.1
1,110.1
1,170.2
3,300.2
 
2035
983.3
136.9
1,120.2
1,305.8
2,199.9
 
2040 2
1,057.4
49.7
1,107.1
1,418.8
660.5
Low Cost:
 
2003
557.4
88.0
645.4
476.2
1,547.1
 
2004
579.1
96.6
675.6
485.0
1,707.7
 
2005
599.3
105.7
705.0
494.5
1,884.7
 
2006
617.8
115.4
733.2
503.1
2,077.8
 
2007
638.0
125.8
763.8
514.6
2,286.3
 
2008
656.8
137.0
793.8
527.2
2,508.0
 
2009
675.6
148.8
824.4
542.4
2,740.7
 
2010
694.6
161.3
855.8
559.2
2,983.9
 
2011
714.7
174.4
889.1
577.7
3,236.6
 
2012
732.8
188.0
920.8
598.0
3,496.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
786.2
231.4
1,017.6
679.4
4,277.0
 
2020
878.2
299.5
1,177.8
850.9
5,482.2
 
2025
977.6
354.4
1,332.0
1,036.5
6,440.3
 
2030
1,088.7
396.2
1,485.0
1,217.3
7,168.7
 
2035
1,214.9
429.7
1,644.6
1,378.4
7,762.1
 
2040
1,355.8
464.5
1,820.2
1,521.6
8,393.7
 
2045
1,512.3
507.1
2,019.4
1,675.0
9,172.5
 
2050
1,686.4
557.1
2,243.5
1,860.5
10,079.2
 
2055
1,881.6
611.5
2,493.0
2,080.3
11,057.7
 
2060
2,102.1
669.6
2,771.7
2,318.0
12,109.2
 
2065
2,350.0
736.4
3,086.4
2,571.1
13,324.2
 
2070
2,627.0
814.4
3,441.4
2,859.1
14,741.5
 
2075
2,935.0
902.6
3,837.6
3,193.4
16,336.0
 
2080
3,277.4
997.5
4,274.9
3,581.0
18,043.6
High Cost:
 
2003
549.7
86.3
636.0
481.2
1,532.8
 
2004
551.1
93.0
644.2
491.5
1,640.9
 
2005
570.8
103.3
674.1
498.3
1,746.5
 
2006
568.2
113.4
681.6
504.4
1,827.4
 
2007
571.1
122.1
693.1
519.3
1,901.8
 
2008
588.4
133.6
722.0
537.5
1,997.7
 
2009
600.5
140.7
741.2
558.0
2,101.5
 
2010
610.3
145.4
755.7
576.4
2,200.0
 
2011
620.0
149.7
769.7
595.5
2,289.6
 
2012
627.8
153.3
781.0
615.9
2,366.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
652.0
155.6
807.6
681.8
2,509.7
 
2020
688.3
142.8
831.1
819.1
2,334.2
 
2025
724.3
98.9
823.2
970.9
1,533.0
 
2030 2
760.3
13.8
774.1
1,113.0
39.3

1The adjustment from current to constant dollars is by the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7.

2Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2042 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Figure VI.F1 provides a comparison of annual cost with total annual income (including interest) and annual income excluding interest, for the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions. All values are expressed in constant dollars, as shown in table VI.F8. The difference between the income values for each year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. Thus the figure illustrates the fact that, under intermediate assumptions, combined OASDI cost will be payable from (1) current tax income alone through 2017, (2) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are less than annual interest income for years 2018 through 2027, and (3) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are greater than annual interest income for years 2028 through 2041, i.e., through the year preceding the year of trust fund exhaustion.

Figure VI.F1.--Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

[D]

Table VI.F9 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in current dollars--that is in dollars unadjusted for price inflation. Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. These estimates, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions, are presented to facilitate independent analysis.

Table VI.F9.--Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Current Dollars,
Calendar Years 2003-80

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2003
$555.0
$87.5
$642.5
$477.9
$1,542.6
 
2004
582.1
97.3
679.4
498.8
1,723.1
 
2005
616.9
109.3
726.2
522.4
1,927.0
 
2006
650.8
122.9
773.7
547.6
2,153.0
 
2007
687.8
137.9
825.7
577.8
2,400.9
 
2008
724.1
153.7
877.8
611.8
2,666.9
 
2009
761.8
170.0
931.8
649.9
2,948.8
 
2010
800.9
186.9
987.9
691.4
3,245.2
 
2011
843.2
204.6
1,047.9
736.8
3,556.3
 
2012
884.6
223.1
1,107.7
786.0
3,878.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
1,018.8
280.6
1,299.4
965.0
4,874.3
 
2020
1,280.5
372.7
1,653.1
1,374.7
6,417.7
 
2025
1,603.8
434.2
2,038.1
1,916.0
7,372.9
 
2030
2,006.4
435.7
2,442.1
2,574.3
7,260.1
 
2035
2,507.8
349.0
2,856.8
3,330.3
5,610.4
 
2040 1
3,126.2
146.9
3,273.1
4,194.7
1,952.8
Low Cost:
 
2003
557.4
88.0
645.4
476.2
1,547.1
 
2004
590.5
98.5
689.0
494.6
1,741.5
 
2005
623.4
110.0
733.4
514.4
1,960.5
 
2006
655.5
122.5
778.0
533.8
2,204.6
 
2007
690.4
136.2
826.6
556.9
2,474.4
 
2008
725.1
151.2
876.3
582.0
2,768.6
 
2009
760.8
167.6
928.4
610.8
3,086.2
 
2010
797.7
185.2
982.9
642.2
3,426.9
 
2011
837.2
204.3
1,041.6
676.8
3,791.7
 
2012
875.6
224.6
1,100.3
714.5
4,177.4
.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
996.9
293.5
1,290.3
861.5
5,423.3
 
2020
1,229.5
419.4
1,648.9
1,191.3
7,675.1
 
2025
1,511.2
547.8
2,058.9
1,602.1
9,954.9
 
2030
1,858.0
676.2
2,534.2
2,077.5
12,234.0
 
2035
2,289.2
809.7
3,098.9
2,597.3
14,625.6
 
2040
2,820.4
966.2
3,786.7
3,165.4
17,461.7
 
2045
3,473.6
1,164.7
4,638.3
3,847.3
21,067.8
 
2050
4,276.6
1,412.8
5,689.4
4,718.0
25,560.1
 
2055
5,268.1
1,712.0
6,980.1
5,824.6
30,960.0
 
2060
6,498.0
2,070.0
8,568.0
7,165.6
37,432.7
 
2065
8,020.5
2,513.4
10,533.8
8,775.3
45,475.5
 
2070
9,899.1
3,069.0
12,968.1
10,773.7
55,549.6
 
2075
12,210.9
3,755.2
15,966.1
13,286.0
67,965.0
 
2080
15,054.5
4,581.9
19,636.4
16,449.2
82,882.5
High Cost:
 
2003
549.7
86.3
636.0
481.2
1,532.8
 
2004
567.6
95.8
663.5
506.2
1,690.1
 
2005
614.3
111.1
725.4
536.1
1,879.3
 
2006
647.1
129.1
776.2
574.4
2,081.1
 
2007
687.8
147.0
834.8
625.5
2,290.5
 
2008
743.2
168.8
912.0
679.0
2,523.5
 
2009
789.9
185.1
975.0
734.0
2,764.5
 
2010
834.9
198.9
1,033.9
788.5
3,009.8
 
2011
882.2
212.9
1,095.1
847.3
3,257.6
 
2012
928.9
226.8
1,155.7
911.3
3,502.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
1,085.2
258.9
1,344.1
1,134.8
4,177.2
 
2020
1,393.8
289.2
1,682.9
1,658.6
4,726.8
 
2025
1,784.5
243.7
2,028.2
2,392.1
3,777.0
 
2030 1
2,279.0
41.4
2,320.4
3,336.3
117.9

1Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2042 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F10 shows, in current dollars, estimated income (excluding interest) and estimated total cost (excluding the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances) of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report. For OASDI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, and miscellaneous transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment) and proceeds from the taxation of OASDI benefits. Total cost consists of outlays (scheduled benefits and administrative expenses) for insured beneficiaries. Income and cost estimates are shown on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

Table VI.F10 also shows the difference between income excluding interest and cost, which is called the balance. The balance indicates the size of the difference between tax income and cost.

Table VI.F10.--OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and
Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2003-80 

[In billions]

Calendar
year
OASDI
 
HI
 
Combined
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Intermediate:
 
2003
$555
$478
$77
 
$164
$157
$7
 
$719
$635
$84
 
2004
582
499
83
 
174
166
8
 
756
665
92
 
2005
617
522
95
 
185
174
10
 
802
697
105
 
2006
651
548
103
 
195
184
11
 
846
732
114
 
2007
688
578
110
 
207
195
12
 
895
773
122
 
2008
724
612
112
 
219
207
12
 
943
819
124
 
2009
762
650
112
 
231
220
11
 
993
870
122
 
2010
801
691
110
 
243
235
8
 
1,044
927
118
 
2011
843
737
106
 
257
251
6
 
1,101
988
112
 
2012
885
786
99
 
271
268
3
 
1,156
1,054
101
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
1,019
965
54
 
314
328
-14
 
1,332
1,293
40
 
2020
1,280
1,375
-94
 
398
466
-69
 
1,678
1,841
-163
 
2025
1,604
1,916
-312
 
503
673
-170
 
2,106
2,589
-482
 
2030
2,006
2,574
-568
 
633
971
-338
 
2,639
3,545
-906
 
2035
2,508
3,330
-823
 
795
1,377
-583
 
3,302
4,708
-1,405
 
2040
3,126
4,195
-1,069
 
992
1,904
-912
 
4,118
6,099
-1,981
 
2045
3,886
5,250
-1,365
 
1,234
2,577
-1,343
 
5,120
7,827
-2,707
 
2050
4,819
6,601
-1,782
 
1,533
3,439
-1,906
 
6,353
10,040
-3,688
 
2055
5,974
8,337
-2,363
 
1,904
4,576
-2,672
 
7,879
12,914
-5,035
 
2060
7,408
10,496
-3,088
 
2,366
6,114
-3,748
 
9,774
16,610
-6,836
 
2065
9,180
13,174
-3,994
 
2,935
8,191
-5,256
 
12,115
21,365
-9,250
 
2070
11,367
16,555
-5,188
 
3,640
10,999
-7,358
 
15,007
27,554
-12,546
 
2075
14,063
20,791
-6,727
 
4,510
14,701
-10,190
 
18,574
35,491
-16,917
 
2080
17,389
26,062
-8,673
 
5,583
19,648
-14,065
 
22,972
45,709
-22,738
Low Cost:
 
2003
557
476
81
 
166
154
12
 
723
630
93
 
2004
591
495
96
 
176
160
16
 
767
655
112
 
2005
623
514
109
 
186
165
21
 
809
679
130
 
2006
655
534
122
 
196
170
26
 
851
704
147
 
2007
690
557
134
 
206
176
31
 
897
733
164
 
2008
725
582
143
 
217
182
35
 
942
764
178
 
2009
761
611
150
 
229
190
39
 
989
801
189
 
2010
798
642
155
 
240
199
42
 
1,038
841
197
 
2011
837
677
160
 
253
208
45
 
1,090
885
206
 
2012
876
715
161
 
265
217
48
 
1,141
932
209
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
997
861
135
 
303
248
55
 
1,300
1,109
190
 
2020
1,230
1,191
38
 
377
315
61
 
1,606
1,507
99
 
2025
1,511
1,602
-91
 
466
407
59
 
1,977
2,009
-32
 
2030
1,858
2,078
-219
 
576
525
51
 
2,434
2,603
-169
 
2035
2,289
2,597
-308
 
712
679
33
 
3,001
3,276
-275
 
2040
2,820
3,165
-345
 
877
875
1
 
3,697
4,041
-344
 
2045
3,474
3,847
-374
 
1,079
1,131
-52
 
4,553
4,978
-425
 
2050
4,277
4,718
-441
 
1,328
1,474
-146
 
5,605
6,192
-587
 
2055
5,268
5,825
-557
 
1,637
1,950
-312
 
6,905
7,774
-869
 
2060
6,498
7,166
-668
 
2,020
2,594
-574
 
8,518
9,760
-1,242
 
2065
8,020
8,775
-755
 
2,492
3,467
-975
 
10,512
12,242
-1,729
 
2070
9,899
10,774
-875
 
3,075
4,646
-1,571
 
12,974
15,419
-2,446
 
2075
12,211
13,286
-1,075
 
3,792
6,198
-2,406
 
16,003
19,484
-3,481
 
2080
15,054
16,449
-1,395
 
4,676
8,277
-3,601
 
19,731
24,726
-4,996
High Cost:
 
2003
550
481
69
 
161
161
1/
 
711
642
69
 
2004
568
506
61
 
172
174
-1
 
740
680
60
 
2005
614
536
78
 
185
187
-2
 
799
723
76
 
2006
647
574
73
 
196
202
-7
 
843
777
66
 
2007
688
625
62
 
209
220
-11
 
897
846
51
 
2008
743
679
64
 
228
243
-16
 
971
922
49
 
2009
790
734
56
 
242
267
-24
 
1,032
1,001
32
 
2010
835
789
46
 
256
291
-35
 
1,091
1,080
12
 
2011
882
847
35
 
272
318
-46
 
1,154
1,165
-11
 
2012
929
911
18
 
288
348
-60
 
1,217
1,259
-42
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015
1,085
1,135
-50
 
339
454
-116
 
1,424
1,589
-166
 
2020
1,394
1,659
-265
 
439
726
-286
 
1,833
2,384
-551
 
2025
1,784
2,392
-608
 
568
1,176
-607
 
2,353
3,568
-1,215
 
2030
2,279
3,336
-1,057
 
732
1,901
-1,169
 
3,011
5,238
-2,227
 
2035
2,899
4,483
-1,584
 
937
2,967
-2,029
 
3,836
7,449
-3,613
 
2040
3,668
5,865
-2,198
 
1,190
4,404
-3,214
 
4,858
10,270
-5,412
 
2045
4,612
7,603
-2,991
 
1,501
6,250
-4,749
 
6,113
13,854
-7,740
 
2050
5,776
9,857
-4,081
 
1,887
8,550
-6,663
 
7,663
18,407
-10,744
 
2055
7,217
12,797
-5,580
 
2,368
11,454
-9,086
 
9,585
24,251
-14,666
 
2060
9,009
16,547
-7,539
 
2,969
15,368
-12,400
 
11,978
31,916
-19,938
 
2065
11,219
21,345
-10,126
 
3,713
20,638
-16,925
 
14,932
41,983
-27,051
 
2070
13,948
27,513
-13,565
 
4,636
27,750
-23,114
 
18,584
55,263
-36,680
 
2075
17,315
35,305
-17,991
 
5,778
37,122
-31,345
 
23,093
72,428
-49,336
 
2080
21,477
45,021
-23,544
 
7,192
49,635
-42,442
 
28,669
94,655
-65,986

1Less than $500 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F11 shows projected future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at either the normal retirement age (NRA) or age 65, for workers attaining age 65 in 2003 and subsequent years. Illustrative benefit levels are shown for workers with four separate pre-retirement earnings patterns. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions in this report. The benefit amounts are shown in constant 2003 dollars (adjusted to 2003 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7). Benefit amounts are also shown as percentages of the general, career-average relative earnings level for each case, wage indexed to the year prior to retirement. These percentages thus represent the benefit "replacement rate" of the career-average level of earnings.

The normal retirement age is 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000 and is scheduled to increase to age 66 during the period 2000-05 (at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attain age 62) and to age 67 during the period 2017-22 (also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62). Thus, for illustrative cases attaining age 65 after 2002, benefit levels shown for retirement at 65 are lower than the levels shown for retirement at NRA, primarily because of the actuarial reduction for "early" (pre-NRA) retirement.

Four different pre-retirement earnings patterns are represented in table VI.F11. Three of these patterns are for workers with scaled-earnings patterns,1 reflecting low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fourth case is the steady maximum earner. The three scaled-earnings cases have earnings patterns that reflect differences by age in the probability of work and in average earnings levels experienced by insured workers during the period 1990-99. The general, career-average level of earnings for the scaled cases is set relative to the SSA average wage indexing series (AWI) so that benefit levels are consistent with levels for "steady-earnings" cases that were shown in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. For the scaled medium earner, the general, career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI. For the scaled low and high earners, the general, career-average earnings level is set at about 45 percent and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively. The steady maximum earner is assumed to have earnings at (or above) the OASDI contribution and benefit base for each year prior to retirement starting at age 22.

As noted above, the scaled-earnings cases were constructed so that their career-average earnings levels are consistent with the corresponding steady low, average, and high earners that were illustrated in the 2000 Trustees Report. As a result, values in this table for benefits under the present-law Social Security benefit formula are essentially comparable to those in earlier reports. Scaled-earnings cases are now generally being used instead of steady-earnings cases because they more accurately illustrate the differences in benefit levels under the wide variety of reform proposals considered in recent years.

Table VI.F11.--Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts1 for Retired Workers With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2003-80 
Year attain age 65 2
 
Retirement at normal retirement age
 
Retirement at age 65
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2003
dollars 3
Percent of earnings
Age at retirement
Constant
2003
dollars 3
Percent of earnings
Scaled low earnings:4
 
2003
 
65:2
$8,475
56.1
 
65:0
$8,380
55.6
 
2005
 
65:6
8,852
56.8
 
65:0
8,557
55.2
 
2010
 
66:0
9,244
55.5
 
65:0
8,622
52.4
 
2015
 
66:0
9,801
55.9
 
65:0
9,142
52.6
 
2020
 
66:2
10,331
55.9
 
65:0
9,525
52.1
 
2025
 
67:0
10,863
55.3
 
65:0
9,414
48.9
 
2030
 
67:0
11,448
55.3
 
65:0
9,920
48.9
 
2035
 
67:0
12,068
55.2
 
65:0
10,458
48.9
 
2040
 
67:0
12,745
55.2
 
65:0
11,047
48.9
 
2045
 
67:0
13,459
55.2
 
65:0
11,664
48.9
 
2050
 
67:0
14,210
55.3
 
65:0
12,314
48.9
 
2055
 
67:0
14,987
55.3
 
65:0
12,988
48.9
 
2060
 
67:0
15,804
55.3
 
65:0
13,695
48.9
 
2065
 
67:0
16,668
55.2
 
65:0
14,445
48.9
 
2070
 
67:0
17,584
55.3
 
65:0
15,238
48.9
 
2075
 
67:0
18,548
55.3
 
65:0
16,076
48.9
 
2080
 
67:0
19,563
55.3
 
65:0
16,954
48.9
Scaled medium earnings:5
 
2003
 
65:2
13,970
41.6
 
65:0
13,814
41.3
 
2005
 
65:6
14,579
42.1
 
65:0
14,104
41.0
 
2010
 
66:0
15,228
41.2
 
65:0
14,213
38.8
 
2015
 
66:0
16,146
41.4
 
65:0
15,071
39.0
 
2020
 
66:2
17,024
41.4
 
65:0
15,698
38.7
 
2025
 
67:0
17,902
41.0
 
65:0
15,513
36.3
 
2030
 
67:0
18,860
41.0
 
65:0
16,345
36.3
 
2035
 
67:0
19,884
40.9
 
65:0
17,236
36.2
 
2040
 
67:0
20,999
40.9
 
65:0
18,201
36.2
 
2045
 
67:0
22,173
40.9
 
65:0
19,217
36.2
 
2050
 
67:0
23,408
41.0
 
65:0
20,289
36.3
 
2055
 
67:0
24,692
41.0
 
65:0
21,398
36.3
 
2060
 
67:0
26,035
41.0
 
65:0
22,563
36.3
 
2065
 
67:0
27,461
41.0
 
65:0
23,799
36.3
 
2070
 
67:0
28,969
41.0
 
65:0
25,105
36.3
 
2075
 
67:0
30,558
41.0
 
65:0
26,483
36.3
 
2080
 
67:0
32,228
41.0
 
65:0
27,931
36.3
Scaled high earnings:6
 
2003
 
65:2
18,357
35.1
 
65:0
18,154
34.8
 
2005
 
65:6
19,230
35.2
 
65:0
18,601
34.3
 
2010
 
66:0
20,185
34.1
 
65:0
18,845
32.2
 
2015
 
66:0
21,414
34.3
 
65:0
19,987
32.4
 
2020
 
66:2
22,569
34.3
 
65:0
20,813
32.0
 
2025
 
67:0
23,735
34.0
 
65:0
20,571
30.1
 
2030
 
67:0
25,009
34.0
 
65:0
21,671
30.1
 
2035
 
67:0
26,362
33.9
 
65:0
22,850
30.0
 
2040
 
67:0
27,842
33.9
 
65:0
24,129
30.0
 
2045
 
67:0
29,399
33.9
 
65:0
25,479
30.0
 
2050
 
67:0
31,034
33.9
 
65:0
26,895
30.0
 
2055
 
67:0
32,735
34.0
 
65:0
28,369
30.1
 
2060
 
67:0
34,517
33.9
 
65:0
29,914
30.1
 
2065
 
67:0
36,408
33.9
 
65:0
31,553
30.1
 
2070
 
67:0
38,404
33.9
 
65:0
33,283
30.0
 
2075
 
67:0
40,513
33.9
 
65:0
35,110
30.1
 
2080
 
67:0
42,725
34.0
 
65:0
37,029
30.1
Steady maximum earnings: 7
 
2003
 
65:2
20,929
29.8
 
65:0
20,692
29.6
 
2005
 
65:6
22,145
29.4
 
65:0
21,415
28.8
 
2010
 
66:0
24,088
28.0
 
65:0
22,292
26.5
 
2015
 
66:0
26,022
27.7
 
65:0
24,162
26.1
 
2020
 
66:2
27,557
27.6
 
65:0
25,317
25.6
 
2025
 
67:0
29,166
27.3
 
65:0
25,079
24.0
 
2030
 
67:0
30,752
27.3
 
65:0
26,456
24.0
 
2035
 
67:0
32,422
27.2
 
65:0
27,897
23.9
 
2040
 
67:0
34,197
27.3
 
65:0
29,427
24.0
 
2045
 
67:0
36,109
27.3
 
65:0
31,070
24.0
 
2050
 
67:0
38,080
27.3
 
65:0
32,766
24.0
 
2055
 
67:0
40,165
27.3
 
65:0
34,561
24.0
 
2060
 
67:0
42,349
27.3
 
65:0
36,443
24.0
 
2065
 
67:0
44,665
27.3
 
65:0
38,434
24.0
 
2070
 
67:0
47,114
27.3
 
65:0
40,542
24.0
 
2075
 
67:0
49,697
27.3
 
65:0
42,764
24.0
 
2080
 
67:0
52,414
27.3
 
65:0
45,103
24.0

1Annual scheduled benefit amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

2Assumed to attain age 65 in January of the year.

3The adjustment for constant dollars is made using the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F7.

4Career-average earnings at about 45 percent of the SSA average wage index (AWI).

5Career-average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

6Career-average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

7Earnings for each year equal to the OASDI contribution and benefit base.


1More details are provided on the development of scaled-earnings patterns in the Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 144, located at the following internet address: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/note144.html.


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