2026 OASDI Trustees Report

II. OVERVIEW

A. HIGHLIGHTS

The highlights of this year’s report are presented in this section, including:

•	Summary measures of trust fund financial status, including how financial status is measured;

•	Changes in laws and assumptions with notable impacts on trust fund financial status;

•	An overview of last year’s (2025) program income and cost;

•	Years of trust fund reserve depletion, tests of financial adequacy, future income and cost rates, actuarial balance, and unfunded obligation, and

•	An illustrative discussion of the size of the solvency gap.

Social Security consists of two separate trust funds, the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund. Although the two funds are separate by law, their operations and reserves are often shown on a combined basis and referred to as OASDI.

Key Results

Table II.A1 presents the key results of this year’s report. These results are explained in more detail later in this report; terms are defined in the Glossary. The intermediate (best estimate) assumptions were set in February 2026.

Table II.A1.—Key Results

[Under Intermediate Assumptions]

		OASI	DI	OASDI
Year of projected trust fund reserve depletion		2032	a	2034
Percent of scheduled benefits that are payable:
	Before reserve depletion	100	a100	100
	Upon reserve depletion	78	a	83
	In 2100	62	100	65
75-year actuarial balance (percentage of payroll)b		-4.55	.13	-4.42

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a

Trust fund reserves are sufficient to pay full scheduled benefits for all years of the 75-year projection period (2026-2100).

b

Negative values indicate that the trust fund has an actuarial deficit over the 75-year projection period.

 

The Trustees will continue to monitor developments, reevaluate the assumptions, and modify the projections in later reports.

Notable Changes Since Last Year’s Report

Since last year’s report, the Trustees have reassessed their expectations and have made changes to the intermediate assumptions in three primary areas.

•	Fertility: The ultimate total fertility rate is 1.75 children per woman for this report. This rate is lower than the rate of 1.90 children per woman used in last year’s report.

•

Immigration: (1) The assumed levels of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants entering the country in 2022-25 were lowered; (2) the assumed ultimate level of temporary or unlawfully present immigrant entrants for years 2035 and later was lowered from 1.35 million to 1.20 million, with a gradually increasing transition path between 2025 and 2035; and (3) the rates of emigration from the unlawfully present population in years 2025-30 were increased.

•

Near-term economics: Real GDP per hour worked (labor productivity) and average real earnings are assumed to grow faster in this year’s report. In particular, the average annual growth in real GDP per hour worked from 2025 to 2035 is 0.05 percentage points higher than in last year’s report, and the average annual growth in average real earnings from 2025 to 2035 is 0.28 percentage points higher than in last year’s report.

In addition, one law was enacted that is projected to have a substantial effect on Social Security’s financial status.

•

One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): Enacted on July 4, 2025, this law makes permanent the lower income tax rates and adjusted tax brackets originally enacted under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and both increases and makes permanent the larger standard deduction of the 2017 Act. The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65. As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits.

The fertility, immigration, and OBBBA changes have a negative projected effect on Social Security’s financial status, while the near-term economic changes have a positive effect. Section IV.B.6 of this report includes a detailed explanation of the long-range financial effects of the changes since last year’s report, by category.

2025 In Review

During 2025, an estimated 185 million people paid payroll taxes on earnings covered by Social Security.

Total OASDI program income was $1,449 billion, mostly from payroll taxes:

•	$1,323 billion from payroll taxes

•	$58 billion from income taxation of Social Security benefits

•	$69 billion from interest earnings

Total OASDI program cost was $1,609 billion, mostly for benefit payments:

•	$1,597 billion for benefit payments

•	$7 billion for administrative expenses

•	$6 billion for the financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement program (see section V.C.12)

Total OASDI income for 2025 was $160 billion less than total cost. Trust fund reserves covered this shortfall, allowing for payment of all scheduled benefits.

The reserves of the OASDI program (which are held in special issue US Treasuries) declined from $2,721 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $2,561 billion at the end of 2025.

In December 2025, Social Security paid benefits to 70 million people:

•	56 million retired workers and their dependents

•	8 million disabled workers and their dependents

•	6 million survivors of deceased workers

Actuarial Estimates

The Trustees make actuarial estimates for a 75-year period (2026 through 2100 for this year’s report) because it is a period long enough to cover the remaining lifetime for virtually all current Social Security participants. Social Security’s total cost is projected to be higher than its total income in 2026 and all future years, as it has been since 2021. Total cost has exceeded non-interest income since 2010.

Trust Fund Reserves and Reserve Depletion

Under the intermediate (best estimate) assumptions, trust fund reserves for the OASDI program, along with projected program income, are sufficient to cover the projected costs of the program until the reserves become depleted in 2034. Details are provided in section II.D and chapter IV. In particular:

•

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected in last year’s report. Upon reserve depletion in 2032, projected income is sufficient to pay 78 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 62 percent by 2100.

•	DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to remain positive throughout the 75-year projection period, as was projected in last year’s report.

•	The combined OASDI fund is projected to become depleted in the third quarter of 2034, the same quarter as in last year’s report. Upon reserve depletion in 2034, projected income is sufficient to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 65 percent by 2100.

Trust Fund Ratios and Tests of Financial Adequacy

The annual trust fund ratio is equal to trust fund reserves at the beginning of a year expressed as a percentage of program cost during that year. The OASDI trust fund ratio is projected to decline from 151 percent at the beginning of 2026 until reserves become depleted in 2034. Additional information on these ratios can be found in sections IV.A and IV.B.3. Section IV.A.4 explains why the trust fund ratio estimates for the tenth projection year changed from last year’s report.

Two tests, both involving trust fund ratios, are used to assess the financial adequacy of the trust funds: the short-range (2026-35) test of financial adequacy and long-range (2026-2100) test of close actuarial balance. The DI fund passes both tests. The OASI fund fails both tests, as do the two funds considered together. See sections II.D, IV.A, and IV.B for full explanations of the tests and these results.

Income Rates and Cost Rates

The income rate is defined as the ratio of a program’s non-interest income to its taxable payroll. The projected OASDI income rate is 12.91 percent of taxable payroll for 2026. After 2026, the income rate generally increases very gradually, reaching 13.45 percent for 2100.

Expressed as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), OASDI non-interest income is 4.4 percent of GDP in 2026 and rises gradually to a peak of about 4.8 percent for 2035. Non-interest income as a percentage of GDP then declines gradually to about 4.5 percent for 2100.

The cost rate is defined as the ratio of a program’s cost to its taxable payroll. The projected OASDI annual cost rate increases from 15.37 percent of taxable payroll for 2026 to 20.45 percent for 2085, and then generally decreases to 20.02 percent for 2100.

Expressed as a share of GDP, OASDI cost generally rises from 5.3 percent of GDP for 2026 to a peak of about 6.9 percent for 2084 and then declines to 6.7 percent for 2100.

OASDI cost has generally increased rapidly since 2008 and is projected to continue to do so through about 2085. In this period, the number of beneficiaries is increasing much faster than the number of covered workers, as subsequent lower-birth-rate generations replace earlier generations at working ages. After about 2085, the OASDI cost rate declines slightly and then roughly stabilizes at just over 20 percent. These patterns in the cost rate are largely driven by changes over time in birth rates and their effect on the age distribution of the adult population.

For additional details about income rates and cost rates, see section IV.B.1.

Actuarial Balance and Actuarial Deficit

The actuarial balance is a summary measure of a program’s financial status over a given projection period. The actuarial balance, which is expressed as a percentage of the program’s taxable payroll over the projection period, includes:

•	trust fund reserves at the beginning of the period

•	all cost and income during the period

•	a target trust fund reserve of 1 year’s cost at the end of the period

A negative actuarial balance is called an actuarial deficit. Simply put, the actuarial deficit represents the average amount of change in income or cost that is needed throughout the projection period to achieve an actuarial balance of zero.

The OASDI actuarial deficit for the 75-year projection period (2026-2100) is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, or about 1.5 percent of GDP. In last year’s report, the OASDI actuarial deficit was 3.82 percent of taxable payroll, or about 1.3 percent of GDP. Section IV.B.4 explains these concepts. Section IV.B.6 explains why the actuarial balance estimates changed from last year’s report. The change to the ultimate fertility rate assumption is the largest contributor to the significantly increased deficit.

Unfunded Obligation

The unfunded obligation represents the cumulative present value of scheduled income less cost. Expressed in present-value dollars discounted to January 1, 2026, the 75-year open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI is $29.3 trillion, or 1.5 percent of GDP over the years 2026-2100. In last year’s report, the unfunded obligation was $25.1 trillion, or 1.3 percent of GDP over the years 2025-99. See section IV.B.5 for more information.

Size of the Solvency Gap

A program is considered solvent if it can pay scheduled benefits when due with scheduled financing. The OASDI program will not be solvent once its reserves become depleted in 2034.

To illustrate the magnitude of the solvency gap, if the following changes were made in 2026, then the combined OASDI program would be solvent for the full 75-year period ending in 2100:

•	Increase the payroll tax rate from 12.40 percent to 16.65 percent starting in January 2026, or

•	Reduce scheduled benefits by 25.2 percent for all current and future beneficiaries starting in January 2026, or

•	Reduce scheduled benefits by 30.3 percent for only those who become eligible for benefits in 2026 and later, but not for current beneficiaries, or

•	Other equivalent combinations of increased revenue and/or reduced benefits.

If substantial actions are deferred until the OASDI program reaches reserve depletion, significantly larger changes would be concentrated on fewer years and fewer generations. For example, if the following changes were made in 2034, then 75-year solvency through 2100 would be achieved:

•	Increase the payroll tax rate from 12.40 percent to 17.30 percent starting in 2034, or

•	Reduce scheduled benefits for all current and future beneficiaries by 28.5 percent starting in 2034, or

•	Other equivalent combinations of increased revenue and/or reduced benefits.

If legislative solutions focus only on achieving 75-year solvency without considering year-by-year financing, then a large financial imbalance could remain for 2100 and beyond. Sustainable solvency is achieved when the projected trust fund ratios are positive throughout the 75-year projection period and are either stable or rising at the end of the period. Making changes now that achieve sustainable solvency could avoid the need for later legislative changes.

Conclusion

The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust. Implementing changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits.

In 2026, Social Security will play a critical role in the lives of 71 million beneficiaries and 185 million covered workers and their families. With informed discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, Social Security will continue to protect future generations.