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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Eliminate the Retirement Earnings Test

Details: For retired-worker beneficiaries aged 62 or older and for survivor beneficiaries aged 60 or older

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 5% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 7% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 12% 8% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 7% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 7% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 8% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 8% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Male 22% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 18% 2% -5% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Other countries 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 11% 7% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 24% 0% -6% 0% 0%
80–89 25% 0% -6% 0% 0%
90 or older 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Divorced 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 16% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 17% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 18% 3% -4% 0% 0%
Bachelor 22% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Associate 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
High school 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
In poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 21% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second highest 24% 4% -6% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 22% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 11% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 15% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Male 22% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 22% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Other countries 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 10% 7% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 24% 0% -6% 0% 0%
80–89 23% 0% -6% 0% 0%
90 or older 27% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Divorced 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 20% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 20% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 23% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Associate 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
High school 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 23% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second highest 25% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second lowest 17% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 23% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 14% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 13% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 8% 9% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 5% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 15% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Male 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 13% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 8% 8% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 12% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 12% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 13% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 15% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
High school 15% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 17% 5% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 20% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 19% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 8% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 18% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Male 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 17% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 16% 2% -2% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 14% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 15% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 8% 8% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 19% 1% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 18% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Divorced 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 14% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
High school 16% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 9% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 18% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 18% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 10% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 18% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,256 18 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,795 8 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,461 10 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 570 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,814 10 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 639 2 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 233 5 2%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,481 8 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 775 10 1%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,502 16 1%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,320 2 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 477 7 1%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,215 8 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 824 3 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 631 4 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,545 11 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 720 3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,252 2,271 18 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,415 106 3%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,915 53 2%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,501 53 3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 926 29 3%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,523 50 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 702 22 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 265 3 1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,328 67 3%
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,087 38 3%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,276 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,171 66 6%
80–89 3% 4% 734 775 40 5%
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 462 5 1%
Divorced 6% 7% 948 996 47 5%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 771 20 2%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,187 32 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 88 -2 -2%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 294 13 4%
Associate 3% 3% 555 581 26 4%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,607 57 3%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 845 11 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 113 113 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,302 -6 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,596 95 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 505 6 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 103 4 4%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,500 75 3%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,345 41 3%
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,155 33 3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 798 28 3%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,033 23 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 404 11 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 265 11 4%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,633 46 2%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 867 28 3%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 801 6 0%
70–79 3% 3% 906 931 24 2%
80–89 3% 3% 585 609 24 4%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 159 19 14%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 299 6 2%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 623 10 1%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 490 17 3%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,088 42 4%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 163 7 4%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 235 16 7%
Associate 2% 2% 405 408 3 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,065 32 3%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 630 16 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 82 81 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,418 -6 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,030 71 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 324 3 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 41 0 0%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 5% 127% 397% 5% 127% 397%
Sex
Female 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 159% 562% 24% 159% 563%
Male 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 105% 239% 0% 105% 238%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 506% 0% 142% 507%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 14% 122% 359% 14% 122% 359%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 131% 410% 0% 131% 410%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 132% 493% 0% 132% 493%
Country of birth
United States 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 12% 123% 363% 12% 122% 363%
Other countries 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 144% 525% 0% 144% 529%
Highest education level
Graduate 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 113% 245% 25% 113% 242%
Bachelor 9% 7% 0% 0% 0% 25% 120% 324% 26% 119% 324%
Associate 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 16% 127% 340% 17% 127% 340%
High school 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 475% 0% 132% 474%
Less than high school 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 718% 0% 142% 718%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 9% 9% 0% 0% 0% 36% 93% 136% 37% 93% 136%
Second highest 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 21% 118% 175% 22% 117% 175%
Middle 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 10% 140% 234% 10% 139% 233%
Second lowest 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 23% 205% 444% 24% 205% 445%
Lowest 4% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 227% 1,374%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 9% -1% 0% 0% 40% 94% 134% 41% 94% 133%
Second highest 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 23% 118% 173% 23% 117% 172%
Middle 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 16% 141% 235% 17% 141% 235%
Second lowest 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 18% 193% 403% 18% 192% 403%
Lowest 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 272% 1,395%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 9% -1% 0% 0% 47% 101% 169% 48% 101% 168%
Second highest 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 33% 118% 237% 35% 118% 237%
Middle 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 15% 136% 314% 15% 135% 312%
Second lowest 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 9% 165% 490% 9% 165% 489%
Lowest 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 182% 1,028%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 9% 0% 0% 1% 0% 119% 375% 0% 119% 375%
Sex
Female 6% 11% 0% 0% 1% 0% 143% 532% 0% 144% 534%
Male 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 101% 258% 0% 102% 258%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 128% 410% 0% 128% 409%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 14% 118% 372% 15% 118% 373%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 111% 323% 0% 112% 323%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 7% -1% 0% 0% 0% 106% 410% 0% 106% 412%
Country of birth
United States 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 7% 118% 342% 8% 118% 343%
Other countries 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 521% 0% 121% 521%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 10% 0% 0% 1% 21% 105% 271% 22% 105% 271%
Bachelor 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 5% 107% 291% 5% 107% 291%
Associate 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 120% 329% 0% 121% 330%
High school 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130% 483% 0% 131% 484%
Less than high school 4% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 126% 612% 0% 126% 612%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 10% 12% 0% 0% 1% 37% 87% 124% 38% 87% 124%
Second highest 8% 11% 0% 0% 1% 34% 117% 176% 36% 117% 176%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 28% 145% 258% 29% 145% 260%
Second lowest 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 204% 522% 0% 204% 523%
Lowest 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 125% 1,830%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 12% -1% 0% 2% 40% 88% 125% 41% 88% 125%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 36% 117% 178% 38% 117% 179%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 29% 144% 261% 30% 145% 263%
Second lowest 5% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 197% 467% 0% 197% 465%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 121% 1,917%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 10% 12% -1% 0% 1% 42% 90% 149% 43% 91% 149%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 43% 119% 247% 45% 119% 247%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 31% 139% 330% 33% 140% 332%
Second lowest 5% 9% 0% 0% 1% 7% 176% 565% 8% 176% 565%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 66% 922% 0% 67% 922%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 9% 0% 0% 1% 0% 116% 343% 0% 116% 345%
Sex
Female 7% 11% 0% 0% 1% 0% 137% 486% 1% 138% 486%
Male 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% 245% 0% 99% 245%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 369% 0% 124% 375%
White, non-Hispanic 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 17% 115% 338% 19% 115% 340%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 112% 306% 0% 113% 310%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 327% 0% 100% 327%
Country of birth
United States 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 11% 116% 318% 12% 116% 318%
Other countries 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 116% 475% 0% 117% 477%
Highest education level
Graduate 10% 9% -1% 0% 1% 25% 106% 255% 27% 107% 255%
Bachelor 10% 10% -1% 0% 1% 8% 103% 272% 9% 104% 274%
Associate 7% 9% 0% 0% 1% 0% 118% 309% 0% 118% 311%
High school 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 413% 0% 124% 413%
Less than high school 4% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 127% 547% 0% 128% 547%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 39% 85% 121% 40% 85% 122%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 40% 114% 170% 42% 114% 172%
Middle 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 29% 138% 246% 30% 138% 247%
Second lowest 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 11% 189% 452% 11% 189% 452%
Lowest 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 129% 1,533%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 41% 85% 121% 42% 85% 121%
Second highest 10% 11% 0% 0% 1% 41% 116% 173% 44% 116% 174%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 31% 139% 254% 33% 139% 255%
Second lowest 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 13% 183% 414% 14% 183% 415%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 127% 1,578%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 44% 87% 139% 45% 87% 140%
Second highest 10% 12% -1% 0% 1% 45% 117% 231% 47% 117% 232%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 34% 136% 307% 36% 136% 307%
Second lowest 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 167% 512% 13% 168% 511%
Lowest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 89% 792% 0% 90% 792%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 24% 46% 79% 30% 47% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0% 31% 28% 51% 90% 33% 52% 90%
Male 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 22% 42% 66% 28% 43% 66%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 50% 84% 33% 52% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 23% 43% 74% 29% 45% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 28% 51% 85% 33% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 24% 48% 90% 32% 51% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 23% 44% 75% 30% 46% 76%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 28% 53% 90% 34% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 71% 21% 41% 71% 27% 42% 72%
Bachelor 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 22% 42% 77% 28% 44% 79%
Associate 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 24% 45% 74% 30% 46% 75%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 27% 48% 81% 31% 49% 83%
Less than high school 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 33% 56% 90% 36% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 17% 31% 47% 24% 35% 48%
Second highest 0% 18% 0% 0% 50% 24% 38% 56% 30% 41% 56%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 29% 43% 63% 34% 45% 63%
Second lowest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 41% 52% 78%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 55% 71% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 25% 0% 0% 100% 16% 33% 50% 24% 36% 50%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 23% 37% 57% 30% 41% 57%
Middle 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 31% 43% 63% 33% 45% 64%
Second lowest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 39% 52% 80%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 54% 69% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 18% 36% 53% 25% 38% 54%
Second highest 0% 19% 0% 0% 71% 22% 38% 62% 28% 41% 63%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 28% 43% 69% 32% 45% 70%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 33% 50% 82% 36% 51% 84%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 47% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 24% 47% 85% 30% 49% 86%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 27% 53% 90% 34% 54% 90%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 49% 22% 43% 73% 29% 44% 73%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 51% 90% 33% 53% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 23% 45% 81% 30% 46% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 26% 51% 83% 33% 53% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 71% 22% 46% 90% 30% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 23% 46% 81% 30% 47% 82%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 27% 54% 90% 34% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 21% 42% 75% 27% 43% 77%
Bachelor 0% 18% 0% 0% 71% 21% 43% 82% 28% 45% 85%
Associate 0% 17% 0% 0% 33% 24% 45% 76% 31% 47% 77%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 51% 89% 33% 52% 90%
Less than high school 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 31% 57% 90% 34% 58% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 71% 16% 31% 46% 23% 35% 46%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 23% 38% 56% 30% 41% 57%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 29% 45% 65% 35% 47% 65%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 43% 56% 85%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 135% 61% 76% 137%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 16% 33% 49% 23% 36% 49%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 22% 37% 58% 30% 41% 58%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 30% 45% 66% 34% 47% 67%
Second lowest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 39% 54% 85% 42% 55% 87%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 127% 59% 74% 130%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 71% 17% 35% 52% 24% 37% 52%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 21% 39% 62% 29% 42% 63%
Middle 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 27% 44% 73% 33% 46% 74%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 35% 53% 88% 39% 54% 89%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 108% 53% 68% 109%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 24% 48% 84% 31% 49% 86%
Sex
Female 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 28% 52% 90% 34% 54% 90%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 22% 44% 73% 29% 45% 74%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 27% 50% 88% 33% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 23% 46% 81% 30% 47% 83%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 26% 52% 84% 33% 53% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 22% 45% 84% 29% 46% 86%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 23% 47% 81% 30% 48% 83%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 26% 51% 90% 33% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 21% 43% 80% 28% 45% 81%
Bachelor 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 21% 42% 79% 27% 44% 82%
Associate 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 25% 47% 77% 31% 49% 79%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 50% 88% 33% 52% 89%
Less than high school 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 31% 57% 90% 35% 59% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 16% 31% 47% 23% 34% 47%
Second highest 0% 19% 0% 0% 50% 24% 39% 57% 31% 42% 57%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 65% 36% 47% 66%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 41% 55% 84% 44% 56% 86%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 128% 61% 76% 133%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 25% 0% 0% 100% 16% 33% 49% 23% 35% 49%
Second highest 0% 19% 0% 0% 71% 23% 39% 58% 30% 42% 59%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 66% 35% 47% 68%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 83% 43% 55% 85%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 122% 59% 74% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 16% 35% 51% 24% 37% 52%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 22% 40% 63% 29% 42% 64%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 29% 45% 72% 33% 47% 73%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 3% 37% 53% 88% 40% 54% 88%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 102% 53% 68% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B7.11.