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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Eliminate the Retirement Earnings Test

Details: For all beneficiaries under full retirement age

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 10% 8% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 16% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Male 21% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 19% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Other countries 16% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 11% 8% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 24% 0% -6% 0% 0%
80–89 24% 0% -6% 0% 0%
90 or older 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Divorced 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Widowed 15% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 17% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 17% 3% -4% 0% 0%
Bachelor 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Associate 20% 2% -4% 0% 0%
High school 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 19% 2% -4% 0% 0%
In poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 20% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second highest 22% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second lowest 17% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 22% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 10% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 15% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 18% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Male 23% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 18% 3% -4% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 22% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Other countries 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 10% 8% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 24% 0% -6% 0% 0%
80–89 25% 0% -6% 0% 0%
90 or older 25% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 21% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Divorced 20% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 20% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 20% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 24% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Associate 22% 2% -5% 0% 0%
High school 19% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 21% 2% -5% 0% 0%
In poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 23% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 24% 4% -6% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 3% -5% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 14% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 23% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 12% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 13% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 2% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 2% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 5% 9% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 3% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 3% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Male 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 13% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 13% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 9% 8% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 20% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 18% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 12% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 11% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 13% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 11% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
High school 15% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 15% 3% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 6% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 17% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 20% 4% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 7% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Male 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 18% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 14% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 16% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 9% 9% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 20% 1% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 20% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 4% -2% 0% 0%
Divorced 14% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 14% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 14% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 16% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 17% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 18% 3% -2% 0% 0%
High school 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 17% 3% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 8% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 20% 5% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 19% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 19% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 9% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 19% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,464 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,960 1 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,505 -1 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,942 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,485 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,653 -1 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,347 1 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,176 1 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 814 1 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 828 -3 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,594 1 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 763 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,898 116 3%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,177 78 3%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,721 38 2%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,088 30 2%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,792 50 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 683 26 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 336 10 3%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,581 69 2%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,318 46 3%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,423 20 1%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,375 38 2%
80–89 4% 4% 873 931 57 6%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 716 5 0%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,116 46 4%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 850 33 4%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,216 32 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 171 1 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 353 9 2%
Associate 3% 4% 630 661 30 4%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,748 54 3%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 965 21 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 118 118 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,780 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,940 100 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 524 15 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 219 0 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,891 68 2%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,559 31 2%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,332 36 2%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 977 14 1%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,164 39 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 434 8 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 315 6 2%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 1,815 44 2%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 1,076 24 2%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 951 6 0%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,100 43 4%
80–89 3% 3% 628 644 15 2%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 196 3 1%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 479 9 2%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 699 12 1%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 505 18 3%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,207 27 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 165 8 5%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 232 15 7%
Associate 2% 2% 460 465 5 1%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,262 32 2%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 767 5 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 74 73 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,817 -4 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,260 62 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 318 4 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 157 1 1%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 144% 450%
Sex
Female 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 182% 644%
Male 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 119% 265%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 161% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 149% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 146% 508%
Country of birth
United States 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 140% 415%
Other countries 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 164% 600%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 24% 125% 262%
Bachelor 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 23% 136% 358%
Associate 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 146% 393%
High school 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 153% 522%
Less than high school 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 161% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 9% 8% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 40% 108% 157%
Second highest 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 201%
Middle 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 160% 270%
Second lowest 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 24% 228% 504%
Lowest 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 253% 1,563%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 8% -1% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 135% 201%
Middle 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 16% 161% 266%
Second lowest 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 19% 217% 454%
Lowest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,585%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 10% 8% -1% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 57% 115% 194%
Second highest 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 38% 138% 269%
Middle 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 20% 159% 363%
Second lowest 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 185% 516%
Lowest 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 205% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 9% 0% 0% 1% 0% 129% 404% 0% 129% 404%
Sex
Female 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 156% 570% 0% 157% 574%
Male 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 110% 275%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 5% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 134% 452%
White, non-Hispanic 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 11% 130% 403% 12% 131% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 130% 359%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 104% 383%
Country of birth
United States 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 6% 130% 369% 7% 130% 371%
Other countries 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 125% 604%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 17% 113% 278% 18% 113% 279%
Bachelor 10% 9% -1% 0% 1% 5% 117% 311% 5% 117% 312%
Associate 7% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 133% 351%
High school 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 143% 537%
Less than high school 4% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 133% 629%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 40% 96% 138% 40% 96% 138%
Second highest 8% 11% 0% 0% 1% 31% 128% 192% 33% 128% 193%
Middle 8% 9% 0% 0% 0% 26% 157% 271% 27% 157% 272%
Second lowest 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 220% 568%
Lowest 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 125% 2,088%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 12% 12% -1% 0% 1% 42% 96% 137% 43% 96% 138%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 39% 129% 194% 40% 129% 194%
Middle 8% 9% 0% 0% 1% 24% 159% 274% 25% 159% 275%
Second lowest 5% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 216% 504%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 96% 2,181%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 12% -1% 0% 1% 46% 99% 163% 48% 99% 164%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 44% 131% 267% 45% 131% 267%
Middle 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 35% 158% 359% 38% 158% 360%
Second lowest 5% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 188% 576%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 39% 1,045%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 120% 359%
Sex
Female 7% 11% 0% 0% 2% 5% 145% 519% 5% 146% 520%
Male 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 102% 246%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 125% 404%
White, non-Hispanic 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 17% 120% 343% 19% 121% 344%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 118% 334%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 105% 349%
Country of birth
United States 8% 9% 0% 0% 1% 9% 120% 319% 10% 120% 320%
Other countries 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 121% 565%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 8% 0% 0% 0% 21% 109% 259% 21% 110% 260%
Bachelor 9% 10% -1% 0% 1% 13% 110% 278% 14% 110% 279%
Associate 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 124% 318% 0% 124% 317%
High school 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 130% 444%
Less than high school 4% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 126% 594%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 10% 11% -1% 0% 1% 40% 88% 127% 41% 88% 127%
Second highest 8% 11% 0% 0% 1% 34% 118% 177% 36% 119% 178%
Middle 7% 10% 0% 0% 1% 30% 144% 246% 31% 144% 248%
Second lowest 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 9% 196% 466% 9% 196% 467%
Lowest 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 125% 1,726%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 43% 89% 127% 44% 89% 127%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 38% 119% 179% 40% 119% 180%
Middle 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 27% 144% 249% 30% 143% 251%
Second lowest 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 13% 192% 442% 14% 192% 443%
Lowest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 126% 1,771%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 11% -1% 0% 1% 45% 91% 145% 46% 91% 146%
Second highest 9% 11% 0% 0% 1% 46% 122% 227% 48% 122% 231%
Middle 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 31% 140% 302% 32% 140% 304%
Second lowest 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 11% 172% 532% 13% 172% 531%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 82% 996%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 125% 369%
Sex
Female 8% 11% 0% 0% 1% 1% 149% 531% 4% 150% 531%
Male 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 107% 252%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 130% 403%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 10% 0% 0% 1% 21% 126% 363% 23% 126% 364%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 122% 308%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 113% 335%
Country of birth
United States 8% 9% 0% 0% 1% 11% 125% 324% 12% 126% 326%
Other countries 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 123% 513%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 9% 0% 0% 0% 30% 116% 286% 31% 116% 286%
Bachelor 11% 9% -1% 0% 1% 9% 115% 300% 10% 115% 301%
Associate 9% 9% -1% 0% 1% 0% 129% 325% 0% 129% 328%
High school 7% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 133% 439%
Less than high school 4% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 129% 578%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 12% 11% -1% 0% 1% 45% 95% 133% 46% 95% 133%
Second highest 10% 10% 0% 0% 1% 43% 124% 181% 44% 124% 182%
Middle 8% 9% 0% 0% 1% 23% 149% 251% 26% 148% 251%
Second lowest 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 207% 499%
Lowest 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 124% 1,549%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 12% 11% -1% 0% 1% 46% 95% 133% 47% 95% 134%
Second highest 10% 10% -1% 0% 1% 44% 123% 182% 45% 123% 184%
Middle 8% 9% 0% 0% 0% 30% 149% 254% 32% 149% 254%
Second lowest 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 2% 202% 466% 3% 202% 469%
Lowest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 126% 1,587%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 13% 10% -1% 0% 1% 50% 98% 152% 51% 98% 153%
Second highest 10% 11% -1% 0% 1% 46% 125% 235% 46% 125% 236%
Middle 8% 10% 0% 0% 1% 36% 146% 316% 38% 146% 319%
Second lowest 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 183% 544%
Lowest 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 74% 797%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 24% 46% 80% 29% 47% 81%
Sex
Female 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 28% 52% 90% 33% 53% 90%
Male 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 22% 42% 66% 27% 43% 67%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 27% 51% 86% 32% 52% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 29% 23% 44% 76% 28% 45% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 32% 51% 87%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 26% 48% 90% 31% 50% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 23% 44% 76% 29% 46% 77%
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 33% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 21% 42% 72% 26% 42% 73%
Bachelor 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 22% 42% 76% 27% 44% 78%
Associate 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 24% 45% 76% 29% 47% 77%
High school 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 26% 48% 83% 31% 49% 83%
Less than high school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 36% 58% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 16% 31% 47% 23% 35% 47%
Second highest 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 23% 38% 56% 30% 41% 56%
Middle 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 28% 44% 64% 34% 46% 65%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 40% 52% 80%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 54% 71% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 22% 0% 0% 100% 15% 34% 50% 23% 36% 50%
Second highest 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 22% 37% 57% 28% 41% 58%
Middle 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 30% 43% 66% 33% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 39% 52% 82%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 52% 68% 114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 17% 36% 54% 24% 38% 54%
Second highest 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 21% 38% 63% 27% 41% 64%
Middle 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 27% 43% 70% 31% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 36% 51% 86%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 47% 63% 93%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 24% 47% 82% 30% 49% 84%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 27% 52% 90% 34% 54% 90%
Male 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 22% 43% 71% 28% 44% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 52% 90% 33% 53% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 23% 45% 78% 30% 47% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 26% 51% 85% 32% 53% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 22% 45% 81% 29% 48% 83%
Country of birth
United States 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 23% 46% 78% 30% 47% 80%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 26% 53% 90% 33% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 17% 0% 0% 71% 21% 41% 74% 27% 43% 76%
Bachelor 0% 19% 0% 0% 71% 21% 42% 79% 27% 44% 80%
Associate 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 24% 46% 74% 31% 48% 75%
High school 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 28% 50% 87% 33% 52% 88%
Less than high school 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 31% 56% 90% 35% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 25% 0% 0% 100% 15% 31% 46% 23% 34% 46%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 50% 23% 38% 56% 30% 41% 56%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 30% 45% 65% 35% 47% 66%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 40% 55% 82% 43% 56% 83%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 59% 75% 127%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 26% 0% 0% 100% 15% 33% 49% 23% 36% 49%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 22% 37% 58% 30% 41% 58%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 30% 45% 67% 34% 47% 68%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 38% 54% 82% 41% 55% 84%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 57% 72% 118%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 16% 35% 51% 24% 37% 52%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 22% 39% 62% 29% 42% 62%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 28% 45% 72% 33% 47% 74%
Second lowest 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 35% 52% 85% 38% 54% 88%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 52% 66% 103%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 24% 47% 83% 31% 49% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 28% 52% 90% 34% 54% 90%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 22% 43% 72% 29% 45% 73%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 27% 50% 89% 32% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 23% 45% 80% 30% 47% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 29% 53% 84% 33% 53% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 24% 45% 85% 29% 47% 87%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 24% 46% 80% 30% 48% 81%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 27% 53% 90% 32% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 22% 42% 77% 28% 44% 79%
Bachelor 0% 19% 0% 0% 71% 21% 42% 81% 28% 45% 83%
Associate 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 25% 46% 77% 31% 48% 79%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0% 20% 28% 51% 87% 33% 52% 89%
Less than high school 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 31% 55% 90% 34% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 16% 31% 46% 23% 34% 46%
Second highest 0% 18% 0% 0% 50% 24% 39% 57% 31% 42% 57%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 65% 35% 47% 66%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 40% 54% 81% 43% 56% 83%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 60% 76% 128%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 15% 34% 48% 23% 36% 48%
Second highest 0% 19% 0% 0% 50% 24% 39% 59% 30% 42% 59%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 67% 34% 47% 68%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 39% 53% 81% 42% 55% 84%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 58% 74% 121%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 16% 35% 51% 24% 36% 51%
Second highest 0% 19% 0% 0% 50% 23% 40% 63% 29% 43% 63%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0% 33% 29% 45% 72% 33% 47% 73%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 35% 52% 86% 39% 54% 87%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 52% 69% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0% 50% 23% 47% 84% 31% 49% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 28% 53% 90% 34% 54% 90%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 22% 43% 72% 28% 45% 73%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 26% 50% 88% 32% 51% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 22% 45% 81% 30% 47% 84%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 27% 52% 84% 33% 53% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 22% 43% 83% 28% 46% 83%
Country of birth
United States 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 23% 46% 80% 30% 48% 82%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 20% 26% 52% 90% 32% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 71% 21% 42% 79% 28% 44% 80%
Bachelor 0% 18% 0% 0% 50% 21% 42% 82% 26% 44% 84%
Associate 0% 16% 0% 0% 50% 23% 46% 76% 31% 48% 77%
High school 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 27% 50% 89% 33% 52% 90%
Less than high school 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% 31% 56% 90% 35% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 15% 31% 46% 23% 34% 46%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 23% 39% 56% 31% 42% 56%
Middle 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 65% 35% 47% 65%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 40% 55% 82% 43% 56% 83%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 60% 77% 135%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 100% 15% 33% 47% 23% 35% 47%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 71% 22% 38% 58% 30% 42% 58%
Middle 0% 14% 0% 0% 33% 31% 45% 66% 35% 47% 67%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 38% 54% 84% 42% 55% 85%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 59% 75% 129%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 100% 16% 35% 50% 23% 36% 50%
Second highest 0% 20% 0% 0% 71% 22% 40% 62% 30% 42% 63%
Middle 0% 17% 0% 0% 50% 27% 45% 72% 34% 47% 73%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 9% 35% 53% 85% 40% 54% 87%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 53% 68% 110%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: RET OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B7.11.