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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Index Primary Insurance Amount (PIA) Factors
to Longevity

Details: Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2018 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Male 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -5% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -5% -4% 0%
70–79 83% 0% -3% -2% 0%
80–89 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widowed 27% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 64% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 61% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 56% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second highest 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 54% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second lowest 48% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 61% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 85% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Sex
Female 84% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Male 86% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 83% 0% -10% -7% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 86% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -10% -6% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -10% -7% -1%
Country of birth
United States 84% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Other countries 86% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Age
60–69 76% 0% -11% -9% 0%
70–79 89% 0% -9% -7% 0%
80–89 90% 0% -6% -5% 0%
90 or older 80% 0% -3% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 87% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Divorced 83% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Widowed 79% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Never married 85% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 91% 0% -10% -7% -1%
Bachelor 90% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Associate 83% 0% -10% -6% 0%
High school 80% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Less than high school 82% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 85% 0% -10% -6% 0%
In poverty 85% 0% -11% -7% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -10% -7% -2%
Second highest 89% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Middle 85% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Second lowest 80% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Lowest 78% 0% -10% -6% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 92% 0% -10% -7% -2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 69% 0% -9% -3% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 89% 0% -10% -7% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 28% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 38% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 53% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Divorced 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widowed 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 39% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 42% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 42% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 42% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 74% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 73% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Male 75% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 75% 0% -7% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -7% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 75% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 72% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 72% 0% -8% -2% 0%
70–79 82% 0% -7% -2% 0%
80–89 75% 0% -4% -2% 0%
90 or older 44% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 81% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Divorced 71% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Widowed 61% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 74% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Bachelor 74% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 76% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 73% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Less than high school 73% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 74% 0% -6% -2% 0%
In poverty 65% 2% -9% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 54% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 78% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Middle 83% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second lowest 81% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Lowest 75% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 80% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 57% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 80% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,237 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,787 0 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,450 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 570 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,804 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,472 0 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 765 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,486 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,318 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 469 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,207 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,534 0 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 717 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,237 3,237 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,252 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,464 155 4%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,934 72 3%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,530 82 5%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 926 29 3%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,553 81 5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 709 30 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 276 14 5%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,379 118 5%
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,085 36 3%
Age
60–69 5% 6% 1,277 1,366 88 6%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,171 66 6%
80–89 3% 3% 734 734 0 0%
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 489 31 6%
Divorced 6% 7% 948 996 48 5%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 780 29 3%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,200 45 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 93 2 2%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 304 23 8%
Associate 3% 3% 555 588 33 6%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,627 77 5%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 852 18 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 158 157 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,633 133 5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 514 16 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 105 6 6%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,861 436 17%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,544 240 18%
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,317 196 17%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 769 914 144 18%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,187 177 17%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 459 66 17%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 301 46 18%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,586 1,891 305 19%
Other countries 4% 5% 839 970 131 15%
Age
60–69 3% 4% 795 987 192 24%
70–79 3% 3% 906 1,053 146 16%
80–89 3% 3% 585 668 83 14%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 153 13 9%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 330 37 12%
Divorced 3% 4% 613 740 127 20%
Widowed 3% 4% 473 577 103 21%
Never married 6% 7% 1,046 1,214 167 16%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 167 11 7%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 257 38 17%
Associate 2% 2% 405 494 88 21%
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,229 195 18%
Less than high school 6% 7% 613 715 101 16%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 443 442 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,419 -6 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,330 371 18%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 380 59 18%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 46 5 12%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 127% 397% 5% 127% 396%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 159% 562% 23% 159% 561%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 105% 239% 0% 105% 239%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 506% 0% 141% 506%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 122% 359% 14% 122% 359%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 131% 410% 0% 131% 410%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 132% 493% 0% 131% 493%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 123% 363% 12% 123% 363%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 144% 525% 0% 144% 524%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 113% 245% 24% 113% 245%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 120% 324% 25% 119% 324%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 127% 340% 16% 127% 340%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 475% 0% 133% 475%
Less than high school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 141% 718% 0% 140% 718%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 93% 136% 36% 93% 136%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 118% 175% 21% 117% 175%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 140% 234% 10% 140% 234%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 205% 444% 23% 205% 444%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 228% 1,368%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 94% 134% 40% 94% 134%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 118% 173% 23% 118% 172%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 141% 235% 16% 141% 235%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 193% 403% 18% 193% 402%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 269% 1,384%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 101% 169% 47% 101% 168%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 118% 237% 33% 118% 237%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 136% 314% 15% 136% 314%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 165% 490% 9% 165% 490%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 183% 1,028%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 119% 375% 0% 113% 364%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 143% 532% 0% 136% 522%
Male 69% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 101% 258% 0% 96% 250%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 66% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 128% 410% 0% 122% 394%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -6% -4% 0% 14% 118% 372% 13% 113% 361%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 111% 323% 0% 106% 319%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -6% -4% -1% 0% 106% 410% 0% 101% 398%
Country of birth
United States 73% 0% -6% -4% 0% 7% 118% 342% 7% 113% 335%
Other countries 63% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 121% 521% 0% 115% 511%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -6% -4% -1% 21% 105% 271% 20% 100% 260%
Bachelor 81% 0% -6% -4% 0% 5% 107% 291% 5% 102% 280%
Associate 70% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 120% 329% 0% 115% 323%
High school 63% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 130% 483% 0% 125% 471%
Less than high school 59% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 126% 612% 0% 121% 597%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -6% -5% -3% 37% 87% 124% 35% 82% 118%
Second highest 83% 0% -6% -4% 0% 34% 117% 176% 34% 111% 169%
Middle 70% 0% -6% -4% 0% 28% 145% 258% 27% 139% 251%
Second lowest 62% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 204% 522% 0% 196% 513%
Lowest 43% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 118% 1,756%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -6% -5% -3% 40% 88% 125% 38% 83% 119%
Second highest 83% 0% -6% -4% 0% 36% 117% 178% 35% 112% 171%
Middle 70% 0% -6% -4% 0% 29% 144% 261% 28% 138% 255%
Second lowest 64% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 197% 467% 0% 189% 456%
Lowest 39% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 115% 1,892%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -6% -5% -3% 42% 90% 149% 40% 86% 142%
Second highest 86% 0% -6% -4% 0% 43% 119% 247% 41% 114% 240%
Middle 73% 0% -6% -4% 0% 31% 139% 330% 30% 133% 323%
Second lowest 62% 0% -6% -4% 0% 7% 176% 565% 7% 169% 549%
Lowest 37% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 66% 922% 0% 64% 901%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 73% 0% -11% -10% 0% 0% 116% 343% 0% 104% 326%
Sex
Female 74% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 137% 486% 0% 124% 460%
Male 72% 0% -11% -10% 0% 0% 99% 245% 0% 89% 230%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 70% 0% -11% -10% 0% 0% 124% 369% 0% 112% 347%
White, non-Hispanic 77% 0% -11% -10% 0% 17% 115% 338% 15% 104% 320%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 112% 306% 0% 102% 293%
All other races, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -11% -10% -1% 0% 100% 327% 0% 89% 306%
Country of birth
United States 75% 0% -11% -10% 0% 11% 116% 318% 10% 104% 299%
Other countries 67% 0% -11% -10% 0% 0% 116% 475% 0% 104% 447%
Highest education level
Graduate 86% 0% -11% -10% -2% 25% 106% 255% 24% 95% 234%
Bachelor 83% 0% -11% -10% -2% 8% 103% 272% 7% 93% 253%
Associate 71% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 118% 309% 0% 106% 292%
High school 66% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 124% 413% 0% 112% 395%
Less than high school 64% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 127% 547% 0% 115% 520%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 96% 0% -11% -10% -9% 39% 85% 121% 35% 76% 109%
Second highest 85% 0% -11% -10% 0% 40% 114% 170% 36% 103% 159%
Middle 73% 0% -11% -9% 0% 29% 138% 246% 26% 125% 234%
Second lowest 65% 0% -11% -9% 0% 11% 189% 452% 9% 174% 436%
Lowest 46% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 117% 1,452%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 97% 0% -11% -10% -9% 41% 85% 121% 37% 76% 108%
Second highest 84% 0% -11% -10% 0% 41% 116% 173% 38% 104% 160%
Middle 74% 0% -11% -9% 0% 31% 139% 254% 29% 126% 240%
Second lowest 67% 0% -11% -9% 0% 13% 183% 414% 12% 167% 396%
Lowest 43% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 115% 1,518%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -11% -10% -9% 44% 87% 139% 40% 78% 125%
Second highest 88% 0% -11% -10% 0% 45% 117% 231% 42% 105% 214%
Middle 75% 0% -11% -9% 0% 34% 136% 307% 32% 123% 290%
Second lowest 65% 0% -11% -9% 0% 12% 167% 512% 11% 153% 491%
Lowest 40% 0% -11% -9% 0% 0% 89% 792% 0% 81% 761%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 79% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 84% 28% 50% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 43% 74% 23% 43% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 85% 28% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 48% 90% 24% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 75% 23% 44% 75%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 71% 21% 41% 71%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 74% 24% 45% 74%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 48% 81% 26% 48% 81%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 56% 90% 33% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 31% 47% 17% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 38% 56% 24% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 43% 63% 29% 43% 63%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 38% 51% 77%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 53% 70% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 50% 16% 33% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 37% 57% 23% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 43% 63% 31% 43% 63%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 37% 50% 77%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 52% 68% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 36% 53% 18% 36% 53%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 62% 22% 38% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 43% 69% 28% 43% 69%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 82% 33% 50% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 46% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -6% -4% 0% 24% 47% 85% 22% 45% 82%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -6% -4% 0% 27% 53% 90% 25% 51% 90%
Male 79% 0% -6% -4% 0% 22% 43% 73% 21% 41% 70%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -6% -4% 0% 28% 51% 90% 26% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -6% -4% 0% 23% 45% 81% 22% 43% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -6% -4% 0% 26% 51% 83% 24% 50% 81%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -6% -4% 0% 22% 46% 90% 20% 44% 86%
Country of birth
United States 77% 0% -6% -4% 0% 23% 46% 81% 22% 44% 78%
Other countries 80% 0% -6% -4% 0% 27% 54% 90% 25% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -6% -4% 0% 21% 42% 75% 20% 40% 72%
Bachelor 87% 0% -6% -4% 0% 21% 43% 82% 19% 41% 79%
Associate 75% 0% -6% -4% 0% 24% 45% 76% 23% 44% 74%
High school 70% 0% -6% -4% 0% 28% 51% 89% 26% 50% 86%
Less than high school 74% 0% -6% -4% 0% 31% 57% 90% 29% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -6% -5% -3% 16% 31% 46% 15% 30% 44%
Second highest 85% 0% -6% -4% 0% 23% 38% 56% 21% 37% 53%
Middle 77% 0% -6% -4% 0% 29% 45% 65% 27% 43% 61%
Second lowest 69% 0% -6% -4% 0% 41% 55% 84% 39% 54% 80%
Lowest 63% 0% -6% -4% 0% 58% 74% 135% 57% 72% 128%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -6% -5% -3% 16% 33% 49% 14% 32% 47%
Second highest 85% 0% -6% -4% 0% 22% 37% 58% 21% 36% 55%
Middle 76% 0% -6% -4% 0% 30% 45% 66% 28% 44% 63%
Second lowest 68% 0% -6% -4% 0% 39% 54% 85% 37% 53% 81%
Lowest 64% 0% -6% -4% 0% 57% 73% 127% 55% 71% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -6% -5% -3% 17% 35% 52% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 86% 0% -6% -4% 0% 21% 39% 62% 20% 37% 59%
Middle 79% 0% -6% -4% 0% 27% 44% 73% 25% 43% 69%
Second lowest 67% 0% -6% -4% 0% 35% 53% 88% 33% 52% 85%
Lowest 63% 0% -6% -4% 0% 50% 67% 108% 49% 65% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 77% 0% -11% -10% 0% 24% 48% 84% 21% 44% 78%
Sex
Female 76% 0% -11% -10% 0% 28% 52% 90% 25% 48% 89%
Male 78% 0% -11% -10% 0% 22% 44% 73% 19% 40% 68%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -11% -10% 0% 27% 50% 88% 23% 47% 82%
White, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -11% -10% 0% 23% 46% 81% 20% 42% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -11% -9% 0% 26% 52% 84% 23% 49% 79%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -11% -10% 0% 22% 45% 84% 19% 41% 79%
Country of birth
United States 76% 0% -11% -10% 0% 23% 47% 81% 20% 43% 76%
Other countries 81% 0% -11% -10% 0% 26% 51% 90% 23% 47% 88%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -11% -10% 0% 21% 43% 80% 19% 40% 73%
Bachelor 87% 0% -19% -10% 0% 21% 42% 79% 18% 38% 72%
Associate 73% 0% -11% -10% 0% 25% 47% 77% 22% 44% 73%
High school 70% 0% -11% -10% 0% 28% 50% 88% 24% 47% 82%
Less than high school 75% 0% -11% -10% 0% 31% 57% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -22% -11% -9% 16% 31% 47% 13% 28% 42%
Second highest 85% 0% -11% -10% 0% 24% 39% 57% 20% 36% 51%
Middle 77% 0% -11% -10% 0% 31% 45% 65% 27% 43% 58%
Second lowest 68% 0% -11% -9% 0% 41% 55% 84% 37% 52% 76%
Lowest 62% 0% -11% -9% 0% 58% 74% 128% 54% 70% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -22% -11% -9% 16% 33% 49% 12% 30% 44%
Second highest 85% 0% -12% -10% 0% 23% 39% 58% 20% 36% 52%
Middle 75% 0% -11% -10% 0% 31% 45% 66% 28% 43% 59%
Second lowest 68% 0% -11% -9% 0% 40% 54% 83% 35% 52% 76%
Lowest 63% 0% -11% -9% 0% 57% 73% 122% 53% 69% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -22% -11% -9% 16% 35% 51% 13% 32% 46%
Second highest 85% 0% -13% -10% 0% 22% 40% 63% 19% 36% 57%
Middle 77% 0% -11% -10% 0% 29% 45% 72% 26% 43% 65%
Second lowest 67% 0% -11% -9% 0% 37% 53% 88% 33% 51% 80%
Lowest 63% 0% -11% -9% 0% 50% 67% 102% 46% 64% 93%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B2.1.