Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reconfigure the Minimum Benefit

Details: For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (YOC = 4 quarters earned that year) set primary insurance amount (PIA) up to 125% of the monthly poverty level

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 10% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 13% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 11% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 16% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0%
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 11% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 13% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 12% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 17% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 12% 0% 0%
High school 0% 18% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 22% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 29% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 14% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 12% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 15% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 16% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 13% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 15% 0% 0%
Male 0% 11% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 13% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 14% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 13% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 17% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 14% 0% 0%
High school 0% 20% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 23% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 13% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 19% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 15% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 28% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 14% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 15% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 12% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 11% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 15% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 14% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 12% 0% 0%
Male 0% 11% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 14% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 14% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 10% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 15% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 13% 0% 0%
High school 0% 18% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 22% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 27% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 11% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 17% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 11% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 16% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 13% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0%
Male 0% 12% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 13% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 13% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 15% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 11% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 15% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 16% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 15% 0% 0%
High school 0% 20% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 22% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 13% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 17% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 12% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 19% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 29% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 14% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 15% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,030 -207 -6%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 1,787 1,684 -102 -5%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,345 -104 -7%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 536 -33 -5%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,685 -118 -6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 8% 636 589 -47 -7%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 228 220 -8 -3%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,294 -178 -7%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 735 -29 -3%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,320 -165 -11%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,276 -42 -3%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 443 -26 -5%
Divorced 9% 8% 1,207 1,105 -101 -8%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 721 -19 -2%
Never married 16% 15% 821 761 -60 -7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 93 -3 -3%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 257 -5 -2%
Associate 4% 4% 626 573 -53 -8%
High school 6% 5% 1,534 1,425 -109 -7%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 682 -35 -4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 94% 3,237 3,030 -207 -6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,087 -164 -7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 561 -16 -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 140 -4 -3%
Disabled worker only 10% 9% 263 242 -21 -8%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 3% 3,309 2,733 -575 -17%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,555 -306 -16%
Male 4% 3% 1,447 1,178 -269 -18%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 897 763 -133 -14%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 2% 1,472 1,180 -292 -19%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 6% 679 553 -125 -18%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 237 -24 -9%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 1,771 -488 -21%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 962 -86 -8%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,099 -177 -13%
70–79 4% 3% 1,105 898 -206 -18%
80–89 3% 3% 734 553 -180 -24%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 182 -10 -5%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 400 -56 -12%
Divorced 6% 5% 948 755 -192 -20%
Widowed 5% 4% 750 635 -115 -15%
Never married 12% 10% 1,154 943 -211 -18%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 80 -10 -11%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 244 -35 -12%
Associate 3% 2% 555 429 -125 -22%
High school 6% 5% 1,549 1,258 -291 -18%
Less than high school 11% 9% 834 722 -112 -13%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 3% 2,500 2,006 -494 -19%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 3% 498 435 -62 -12%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 97 -1 -1%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 195 -17 -8%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,194 -230 -9%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,304 1,194 -109 -8%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,000 -121 -10%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 704 -65 -8%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 899 -110 -10%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 350 -41 -10%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 241 -13 -5%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,402 -184 -11%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 792 -46 -5%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 732 -62 -7%
70–79 3% 2% 906 823 -83 -9%
80–89 3% 2% 585 515 -69 -11%
90 or older 2% 1% 139 123 -15 -11%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 254 -38 -13%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 560 -52 -8%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 432 -40 -8%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 948 -98 -9%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 153 -2 -1%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 196 -22 -10%
Associate 2% 2% 405 364 -40 -10%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 920 -113 -10%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 562 -51 -8%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 90% 2,425 2,194 -230 -9%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 2% 1,958 1,742 -216 -11%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 310 -10 -3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 39 -1 -4%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 103 -1 -1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 10% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 13% 0% 0%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 10% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 11% 0% 0%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 34% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 25% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 14% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 27% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 24% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 18% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 28% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 34% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 24% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 37% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 17% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 37% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 16% 0% 0%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 18% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 11% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 14% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 12% 0% 0%
High school 0% 16% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 20% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 36% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 20% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 22% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 19% 0% 0%
Male 0% 12% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 20% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 22% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 16% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 17% 0% 0%
High school 0% 22% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 47% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 20% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 44% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 22% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 11% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 32% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 29% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 15% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 19% 0% 0%
Male 0% 12% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 21% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 22% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 16% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 14% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 18% 0% 0%
High school 0% 22% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 48% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 46% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 22% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 11% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 28% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.