Cohort-Specific Measures of Lifetime Social Security Taxes and Benefits

by
ORES Working Paper No. 110 (released December 2007)

The author is with the Division of Economic Research, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Office of Policy, Social Security Administration.

Acknowledgments: The author thanks Henry Ezell for assistance in data preparation and Andrew Bershadker, Andrew Biggs, Benjamin Bridges Jr., Nicholas Bull, Chris Chaplain, Lee Cohen, Jeffrey L. Kunkel, Joyce Manchester, David Pattison, and David Podoff for providing data, commenting on the paper, or discussing various aspects of the analysis.

Working papers in this series are preliminary materials circulated for review and comment. The findings and conclusions expressed in them are the authors' and do not necessarily represent the views of the Social Security Administration.

Introduction

This paper develops estimates of lifetime money's worth and redistributional outcomes under the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program for all past, present, and future birth cohorts affected by the program through the cohort born in 2100. The estimates presented in this study incorporate a comprehensive accounting of all OASI taxes and benefits and blend historical administrative data with tax and benefit projections. Projected taxes and benefits are consistent with the detailed intermediate economic and demographic assumptions underlying the 2002 Trustees Report and extended beyond the Trustees Report projection period using an approach consistent with the Trustees Report assumptions. The qualitative conclusions reached in this analysis should be unaffected by the relatively minor changes in key economic and demographic assumptions that characterize subsequent Trustees Reports.

Because the present OASI program is projected to be in long-run deficit, estimates are also developed in this paper under two stylized alternative policies that bring the program into long-run financial balance over the Trustees Report projection period and beyond. The first alternative policy achieves long-run financial balance through a series of proportional benefit award adjustments and the second alternative policy through a series of payroll tax rate adjustments.

Lifetime outcomes for each birth cohort are examined both from the perspective of cohort members, indicating the extent to which each cohort has received or can expect to receive their "money's worth" from the program, and from the perspective of the program, indicating the extent of redistribution across the cohorts. These estimates update similar estimates presented in Leimer (1994) and, under certain assumptions, can be used to calculate the "legacy debt" associated with program transfers to early cohorts.

This paper

Method

As indicated, this analysis combines Social Security administrative data for historical years with projections of OASI outcomes under alternative tax and benefit policies conditional on the intermediate economic and demographic assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report.1 The historical and projected data include OASI benefits of all types, OASI payroll taxes of all types (including those on employees, employers, and the self-employed), and OASI benefit income tax liabilities.2 These variables are identified historically and simulated prospectively through the year 2220 both as annual program aggregates and as program participant disaggregates by single year of age (from age 0 through 120, the maximum age assumed for any cohort member). This level of detail permits comprehensive estimates of the balance between lifetime taxes and benefits under the program for all past, present, and future birth cohorts affected by the program through the cohort born in 2100.3 The rest of this section discusses specifics of the method adopted in this analysis.

Allocation of Secondary Benefits

Under the OASI program, monthly benefit payments to dependents of a retired worker or survivors of a deceased worker are referred to as "secondary" benefits.4 In this analysis, secondary benefits are allocated to the birth cohort of the secondary beneficiary. This allocation has been referred to as "individual-specific" and follows the general approach used in the most comparable previous studies.5 An alternative allocation used in many previous studies has been referred to as the "worker-account" approach and allocates secondary benefits to the birth cohort of the worker on whose account the benefits were earned. These two secondary benefit allocation approaches provide different perspectives on the redistributional and money's worth effects of the program, with each having advantages and disadvantages depending on the specific questions being addressed.6 Because the benefit and tax data used in the present analysis are not linked on an individual-record basis, however, they permit the use of the individual-specific approach but not the worker-account approach.

Payroll Tax Incidence

The allocation of payroll taxes in this analysis assumes full backward shifting of the employer portion of the payroll tax to workers in the form of lower wages. Although there is disagreement among economists about the incidence of the payroll tax, full backward shifting is the standard incidence assumption in analyses of the redistributional and money's worth effects of the Social Security program.7

Historical Taxes and Benefits

The approach used in this analysis to identify historical OASI benefits of all types (all lump-sum and monthly benefit payments), OASI payroll taxes of all types, and OASI benefit income tax liabilities by year and age from Social Security administrative data is identical to the approach used and explained in detail in Leimer (2004). The only difference is that two additional years of historical data were available for the present analysis. A brief summary of the approach is provided here, but interested readers can consult Leimer (2004) for additional detail.

The aggregate OASI payroll taxes paid by workers of each age in each year from 1937 through 2001 were derived from a combination of two Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS) administrative data files.8 These files contain information on annual Social Security taxable earnings for a random sample of all Social Security numbers and were used to identify OASI taxable wages and self-employment income for each valid record in each year. The associated OASI payroll tax liabilities for each of these observations were then computed using the OASI payroll tax rates and rules for that year, adjusting for complications such as multiple employers and the mix between taxable wages and self-employment income. Aggregate OASI payroll tax liabilities for workers of each age in each year were then calculated from the sample and adjusted proportionally across all ages to sum to the actual aggregate OASI payroll tax liability for that year.9 In effect, the sample data were used to identify the proportional distribution of aggregate OASI payroll tax liability by age in each year.

A similar approach was used to identify historical OASI benefits by age, except that published summary tables drawn from administrative records on year-end OASI monthly benefit payments by beneficiary type and age 10 were used in place of electronic beneficiary sample data files. The electronic beneficiary sample data files that are available now do not contain complete historical benefit records, necessitating the use of the published summary tables. Accordingly, the proportional distribution by age of aggregate year-end OASI benefit payments from each summary benefit table was used to identify the age-allocation of aggregate benefits paid from the OASI trust fund during the corresponding year.11

Projected Taxes and Benefits

In this analysis, projected future OASI benefits of all types, OASI payroll taxes of all types, and OASI benefit income tax liabilities by year and age are based on and constrained by the 2002 Trustees Report detailed projections of economic, demographic, and program variables under the intermediate assumption set. These economic, demographic, and program variable projections are extended beyond the Trustees Report projection period, which ends in 2080, by assuming a continuation of patterns of change found in those projections toward the end of the Trustees Report projection period. OASI benefits and taxes by year and age are then projected through 2220 conditional on these extended economic, demographic, and program variable projections. Appendix D provides additional detail on the method used.

As indicated, this analysis simulates program outcomes under present program provisions and under two stylized alternative policies that bring the program into long-run financial balance. When projecting the effects of alternative policies, of course, aspects of the Trustees Report projections that are specific to present program provisions are modified as appropriate.

The alternative policies considered in this analysis involve across-the-board proportional adjustments in either payroll tax rates or benefit awards. Many other specific tax, benefit, or benefit award adjustment policies could have been used, of course, to bring the OASI program into financial balance over the Trustees Report projection period and beyond. Payroll tax rate adjustments and proportional adjustments in benefit awards were adopted in this analysis because these policies achieve solvency while maintaining key elements of tax and benefit determination under the present program.12

The main criteria used to select the particular tax rate and benefit award adjustment schedules used in this analysis were (1) early implementation, (2) precise attainment of the financial balance targets by the end of the Trustees Report projection period and in each subsequent year, and (3) annual tax rate or benefit award adjustment schedules, depending on the policy, that were as smooth as possible consistent with the first two criteria.13 The particular tax rate and benefit award adjustment schedules identified by this process and used in this analysis, then, are reasonable, but obviously not unique, solutions. While not unique, these schedules serve to illustrate the general nature of the intercohort redistributional and money's worth effects of program changes required to achieve financial balance consistent with the Trustees Report economic and demographic assumptions. Many of the qualitative insights produced by such an exercise, of course, are not dependent on the specific schedule of tax or benefit adjustments.

Income Taxation of Benefits

This analysis incorporates estimates by year and age of a portion of the historical and projected income taxation of OASI benefits that began in 1984. A large portion of the proceeds from the income taxation of OASI benefits is returned to the OASI trust fund as a transfer from general revenues. Over part of the historical and all of the projection period, this portion of benefit income tax liabilities represents a significant source of the income used to finance OASI benefits.14 As such, the "financial balance" principle of comparing benefits and taxes in the context of a self-financed system requires that redistributional or money's worth estimates even gross of income taxation in general include an adjustment for the portion of benefit income tax revenues returned to the trust fund.15 In the present analysis, this is accomplished by defining the total OASI tax liability for each birth cohort as the sum of their OASI payroll taxes and that portion of their OASI benefit income tax liability that is ultimately returned to the OASI trust fund.16

Accurately identifying the incidence of benefit income taxation across birth cohorts in each year would require much more information than was available in the source data used for this analysis. Consequently, the effective rate of benefit income taxation (benefit income tax liability as a proportion of benefits) was assumed to be identical across birth cohorts in any given year.17 This assumption introduces potential bias into the analysis. The actual effective benefit income tax rate will tend to be higher, ceteris paribus, for groups with higher earnings and taxable income. This might suggest that younger retirement age groups, for example, may generally experience higher effective benefit income tax rates than older retirement age groups in any given year. Such effects will tend to balance out to some extent over the lifetimes of most birth cohorts. Differences across beneficiary income groups in the effective benefit income tax rate will also tend to diminish over time because the income thresholds beyond which benefit income taxation applies are fixed in nominal terms.

Interest Rate Series

The money's worth and redistributional present value estimates 18 in this analysis are calculated for four alternative interest rate series. These four series correspond to (1) a nominal interest rate equal to the rate of inflation (a zero real interest rate); (2) the rate of return earned on OASI trust fund assets; (3) the total rate of return to an index of large company stocks; and (4) an interest rate equal to the growth rate in aggregate OASI taxable earnings.19 The appropriate interest rate series to use in analyzing Social Security program outcomes depends on the particular questions being addressed and on how the analysis takes into account risk differentials among retirement asset types. The particular questions being addressed are defined by such issues as the nature of the alternative to which the Social Security program is explicitly or implicitly compared and the perspective of the evaluation, whether from a program, program participant, or societal standpoint.20

Using the interest rates at which the OASI program was or is projected to be able to actually transform funds over time through trust fund saving and dissaving, for example, can be interpreted as identifying redistribution from the perspective of the program. The present value of lifetime benefits less taxes for each birth cohort, calculated using the interest rates earned by the trust fund, is a measure of the cost to the fund of those net transfers. That is, this present value reflects the amount by which the trust fund would have been different as of a selected valuation date had those specific net transfers not occurred.21

Alternatively, the interest rate series used in this analysis can be interpreted from a money's worth perspective. A complicating factor from this perspective is that the "investment" and "return" stream corresponding to lifetime Social Security taxes and benefits does not have a direct market equivalent, since the program is financed primarily on a pay-as-you-go rather than a funded basis. An individual or collective evaluation of that stream, then, requires the identification of an interest rate series that most closely reflects the perceived characteristics, including relative risk, of the Social Security "investment." As such, the appropriate interest rate series depends in large part on the perceptions of the evaluator(s).

Standard portfolio analysis offers a clarifying perspective on this issue, with the Social Security "investment" viewed as another available portfolio asset.22 The interest rate series associated with a fungible market asset effectively equates the present values of the investment and return streams expected by the market for that asset. The analogous interest rate for a mature, pure pay-as-you-go social insurance program is the rate of growth in the tax base used to finance the program. That is, the rate of growth in the underlying tax base represents the major component of the rate of return to program participants generated on average in a mature, sustainable pay-as-you-go social insurance retirement program.23 Society can collectively gain access to this pay-as-you-go retirement "asset" with historically attractive risk and return characteristics 24 by establishing a mandatory public retirement program financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. Assuming that the size of a pay-as-you-go program is consistent with the share of the program in the optimal retirement portfolio, 25 then, the growth rate in the program's tax base represents a logical choice for the interest rate series used to evaluate lifetime taxes and benefits under the program. Consequently, the growth rate in aggregate OASI taxable earnings is included as one of the interest rate series in this analysis.

Various other characteristics of the program, however, can require adjustments to the appropriate interest rate series for evaluating program outcomes. Some features of the Social Security program can reduce overall portfolio risk for program participants; other features of the program are "market-improving" in the sense of addressing various deficiencies of private insurance and annuity markets. Some examples include the automatic inflation adjustment of benefits after entitlement without default risk, the effective provision of actuarially fair annuities without the inefficiencies of adverse selection, insurance against various types of human capital and earnings risk, and advantageous retirement portfolio intercorrelations.26 These potential market-improving and portfolio-enhancing features of the program suggest the use of an interest rate lower than the tax base growth rate to evaluate program outcomes, since such features lower the overall risk of the Social Security "investment" below that represented by the program's financing basis. Alternatively, some analysts argue on a theoretical basis that the program is subject to demographic, economic growth, and political risks that justify the use of a higher interest rate in money's worth analyses.27 In short, different evaluators have different perceptions of the appropriate interest rate to use in analyzing lifetime outcomes under the Social Security program.28

In this context, the zero real interest rate series can be interpreted as incorporating a downward adjustment from the OASI taxable earnings growth rate series to adjust at least in part for various portfolio-enhancing and market-improving characteristics of the Social Security program. Alternatively, the OASI trust fund interest rate series can be interpreted as a proxy for a government bond rate series 29 that prospectively incorporates an increment to the OASI taxable earnings growth rate series that is slightly larger than the decrement represented by the zero real interest rate series.30 Since a few studies have used even higher interest rates to evaluate the Social Security program, estimates using the large company stock series are also included in this analysis, providing a comparison with a private investment alternative that has exhibited both higher risk and higher return, on average, than a government bond series over the historical period.31

The various interest rate series and redistributional and money's worth measures included in this analysis, then, are intended to facilitate comparison with previous analyses and to increase the range of questions to which the results can be applied. Two fundamental implications of this analysis are that (1) the evaluation of program outcomes, whether from a program, participant, or societal perspective, depends critically on the interest rates used in the analysis and (2  in a stochastic world where retirement saving alternatives have different risk and return characteristics including crucial intercorrelations, the choice of an appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate to evaluate program outcomes is difficult and controversial.

Administrative Expenses

The redistributional and money's worth measures presented in this paper do not adjust for the costs of administering the program. Some of the taxes collected under the program are used to cover the expenses of administering the program, which necessarily creates an imbalance between taxes and benefits. Analogous and potentially higher expenses would be associated with private alternatives to the retirement saving, annuity, and survivors insurance features of the OASI program.32 Estimated negative values for lifetime benefits less lifetime taxes, then, do not by themselves suggest that the corresponding groups of program participants are net redistributional losers from a program perspective 33 or fail to receive their money's worth under the program from a participant perspective.34

Analysis

This section presents and analyses OASI program outcomes simulated under present law provisions and under the two stylized alternative policies that bring the program into long-run financial balance consistent with the underlying Trustees Report projections. Program outcomes that are simulated by applying the OASI benefit and tax provisions now scheduled under present law are denoted in the discussion as "present law" outcomes.35 The two alternative policies adopted in this analysis to restore solvency consistent with the Trustees Report projections are referred to in the discussion as the "balanced budget" award and tax adjustment policies. The discussion first identifies the benefit award and tax rate adjustments adopted to achieve solvency 36 and then examines the associated lifetime money's worth and redistributional outcomes for past, present, and future birth cohorts under the alternative policies.

Benefits and Taxes under the Policy Alternatives

Balanced Budget Award Adjustment Policy. The balanced budget award adjustment policy adopted in this analysis employs a series of annual proportional adjustments in benefit awards, beginning in 2015, that bring the OASI program into financial balance over the Trustees Report projection period through 2080 as well as in all subsequent years. These award adjustments effectively extend the drawdown of the OASI trust fund so that the trust fund/expenditure ratio gradually declines until equaling 1.0 in 2080. Beyond 2080, the benefit award adjustments are derived endogenously as those required to maintain an annual trust fund/expenditure ratio of 1.0 in each year. Financial balance is defined in this instance, then, as the attainment and maintenance of a trust fund equal to annual expenditures by 2080 and beyond.37 This balanced budget award adjustment policy can be conceptualized as a series of annual proportional adjustments to all of the marginal "replacement rates" in the present law benefit formula, with the effect that initial benefit awards in a given year across all beneficiary types and ages experience the same proportional adjustment.38

A wide variety of benefit adjustments, including the type of proportional award adjustments simulated in the present analysis, are available to meet specific cost objectives. The choice among these alternatives depends, of course, on the desired adequacy, equity, and efficiency goals of the program.39 The particular award adjustment policy adopted for this analysis is not intended to convey any special merit relative to those goals and was identified primarily on the basis of the technical criteria described above.40

The adjustment factor applied in each simulation year to present law OASI benefit awards under the balanced budget award policy is displayed in Chart 1. This chart illustrates rather dramatically the extent of the award adjustments required to maintain solvency at present tax rates under the extended Trustees Report assumptions. The award adjustment factor in Chart 1 represents aggregate benefit awards in each year under the balanced budget award policy as a proportion of the aggregate benefits that would have been awarded in that year under present law. Benefit awards under the balanced budget award policy equal those under present law through 2014, then decline to about 62 percent of present law benefit awards by 2080, and then generally decline further at a more gradual pace to about 48 percent of present law benefit awards by the end of the extended projection period in 2220. This continuing decline in benefit awards under the balanced budget award policy relative to present law is attributable to the projected continuing improvements in mortality under the Trustees Report and extended projections.41

Chart 1.
OASI benefit award adjustment factor under the balanced budget award policy, by year
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 1. OASI benefit award adjustment factor under the balanced budget award policy, by year
Year Benefit regime factor
2000 1.00000
2001 1.00000
2002 1.00000
2003 1.00000
2004 1.00000
2005 1.00000
2006 1.00000
2007 1.00000
2008 1.00000
2009 1.00000
2010 1.00000
2011 1.00000
2012 1.00000
2013 1.00000
2014 1.00000
2015 0.99111
2016 0.98230
2017 0.97356
2018 0.96491
2019 0.95633
2020 0.94783
2021 0.93940
2022 0.93105
2023 0.92277
2024 0.91457
2025 0.90547
2026 0.89646
2027 0.88754
2028 0.87870
2029 0.86996
2030 0.86130
2031 0.85273
2032 0.84425
2033 0.83585
2034 0.82753
2035 0.81980
2036 0.81215
2037 0.80457
2038 0.79706
2039 0.78961
2040 0.78224
2041 0.77494
2042 0.76770
2043 0.76054
2044 0.75344
2045 0.74826
2046 0.74312
2047 0.73802
2048 0.73295
2049 0.72791
2050 0.72291
2051 0.71795
2052 0.71301
2053 0.70812
2054 0.70325
2055 0.69896
2056 0.69469
2057 0.69045
2058 0.68624
2059 0.68205
2060 0.67789
2061 0.67375
2062 0.66964
2063 0.66555
2064 0.66149
2065 0.65798
2066 0.65450
2067 0.65103
2068 0.64758
2069 0.64415
2070 0.64073
2071 0.63734
2072 0.63396
2073 0.63060
2074 0.62726
2075 0.62524
2076 0.62322
2077 0.62121
2078 0.61921
2079 0.61721
2080 0.61522
2081 0.61444
2082 0.61016
2083 0.60780
2084 0.60650
2085 0.60585
2086 0.60550
2087 0.60537
2088 0.60540
2089 0.60494
2090 0.60430
2091 0.60356
2092 0.60257
2093 0.60152
2094 0.59979
2095 0.59800
2096 0.59617
2097 0.59430
2098 0.59244
2099 0.59059
2100 0.58876
2101 0.58698
2102 0.58526
2103 0.58361
2104 0.58205
2105 0.58058
2106 0.57922
2107 0.57796
2108 0.57680
2109 0.57572
2110 0.57471
2111 0.57376
2112 0.57288
2113 0.57203
2114 0.57118
2115 0.57035
2116 0.56951
2117 0.56869
2118 0.56783
2119 0.56693
2120 0.56597
2121 0.56495
2122 0.56389
2123 0.56276
2124 0.56158
2125 0.56033
2126 0.55906
2127 0.55774
2128 0.55644
2129 0.55513
2130 0.55386
2131 0.55263
2132 0.55142
2133 0.55026
2134 0.54915
2135 0.54809
2136 0.54707
2137 0.54608
2138 0.54511
2139 0.54415
2140 0.54317
2141 0.54233
2142 0.54162
2143 0.54079
2144 0.53995
2145 0.53909
2146 0.53833
2147 0.53764
2148 0.53676
2149 0.53587
2150 0.53496
2151 0.53403
2152 0.53310
2153 0.53215
2154 0.53121
2155 0.53027
2156 0.52932
2157 0.52839
2158 0.52746
2159 0.52654
2160 0.52564
2161 0.52476
2162 0.52389
2163 0.52305
2164 0.52221
2165 0.52140
2166 0.52060
2167 0.51981
2168 0.51903
2169 0.51825
2170 0.51748
2171 0.51672
2172 0.51596
2173 0.51521
2174 0.51445
2175 0.51369
2176 0.51293
2177 0.51217
2178 0.51141
2179 0.51065
2180 0.50989
2181 0.50912
2182 0.50836
2183 0.50760
2184 0.50685
2185 0.50609
2186 0.50535
2187 0.50461
2188 0.50388
2189 0.50314
2190 0.50243
2191 0.50171
2192 0.50101
2193 0.50031
2194 0.49961
2195 0.49893
2196 0.49824
2197 0.49757
2198 0.49689
2199 0.49623
2200 0.49556
2201 0.49487
2202 0.49418
2203 0.49349
2204 0.49280
2205 0.49211
2206 0.49142
2207 0.49073
2208 0.49004
2209 0.48935
2210 0.48867
2211 0.48798
2212 0.48730
2213 0.48662
2214 0.48594
2215 0.48527
2216 0.48459
2217 0.48393
2218 0.48326
2219 0.48261
2220 0.48195
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

The data displayed in Chart 1 reflect benefit award reductions relative to those scheduled under present law, not relative to benefit awards in preceding years. The average nominal benefit award to new retirees under the balanced budget award policy increases in every year despite the reductions relative to present law. The average real benefit award to new retirees does decline in some years under the balanced budget award adjustment policy during the period of steepest declines relative to present law toward the start of the policy.42 Benefits after entitlement are automatically adjusted for inflation in each subsequent year under the balanced budget award policy (and under the balanced budget tax policy), just as under present law.

Balanced Budget Tax Adjustment Policy. The combined employer and employee payroll tax rate under each of the three policies simulated in this analysis is displayed in Chart 2. The combined tax rate under the balanced budget award policy remains at 10.6 percent, the same rate scheduled under present law.

Chart 2.
OASI combined payroll tax rate, by policy and year
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 2. OASI combined payroll tax rate, by policy and year
Year Present law or balanced budget
award [0.106 all years]
Balanced budget tax
2001 0.10600 0.10600
2002 0.10600 0.10600
2003 0.10600 0.10600
2004 0.10600 0.10600
2005 0.10600 0.10600
2006 0.10600 0.10600
2007 0.10600 0.10600
2008 0.10600 0.10600
2009 0.10600 0.10600
2010 0.10600 0.10658
2011 0.10600 0.10716
2012 0.10600 0.10774
2013 0.10600 0.10832
2014 0.10600 0.10890
2015 0.10600 0.10948
2016 0.10600 0.11006
2017 0.10600 0.11063
2018 0.10600 0.11121
2019 0.10600 0.11179
2020 0.10600 0.11237
2021 0.10600 0.11295
2022 0.10600 0.11353
2023 0.10600 0.11411
2024 0.10600 0.11469
2025 0.10600 0.11527
2026 0.10600 0.11585
2027 0.10600 0.11643
2028 0.10600 0.11701
2029 0.10600 0.11759
2030 0.10600 0.11817
2031 0.10600 0.11875
2032 0.10600 0.11933
2033 0.10600 0.11990
2034 0.10600 0.12048
2035 0.10600 0.12106
2036 0.10600 0.12164
2037 0.10600 0.12222
2038 0.10600 0.12280
2039 0.10600 0.12338
2040 0.10600 0.12396
2041 0.10600 0.12454
2042 0.10600 0.12512
2043 0.10600 0.12570
2044 0.10600 0.12628
2045 0.10600 0.12686
2046 0.10600 0.12744
2047 0.10600 0.12802
2048 0.10600 0.12860
2049 0.10600 0.12917
2050 0.10600 0.13026
2051 0.10600 0.13135
2052 0.10600 0.13244
2053 0.10600 0.13353
2054 0.10600 0.13462
2055 0.10600 0.13571
2056 0.10600 0.13680
2057 0.10600 0.13789
2058 0.10600 0.13898
2059 0.10600 0.14007
2060 0.10600 0.14116
2061 0.10600 0.14225
2062 0.10600 0.14334
2063 0.10600 0.14443
2064 0.10600 0.14552
2065 0.10600 0.14661
2066 0.10600 0.14769
2067 0.10600 0.14878
2068 0.10600 0.14987
2069 0.10600 0.15096
2070 0.10600 0.15205
2071 0.10600 0.15314
2072 0.10600 0.15423
2073 0.10600 0.15532
2074 0.10600 0.15641
2075 0.10600 0.15750
2076 0.10600 0.15859
2077 0.10600 0.15968
2078 0.10600 0.16077
2079 0.10600 0.16186
2080 0.10600 0.16295
2081 0.10600 0.16404
2082 0.10600 0.16483
2083 0.10600 0.16560
2084 0.10600 0.16632
2085 0.10600 0.16701
2086 0.10600 0.16767
2087 0.10600 0.16829
2088 0.10600 0.16887
2089 0.10600 0.16943
2090 0.10600 0.16997
2091 0.10600 0.17048
2092 0.10600 0.17098
2093 0.10600 0.17146
2094 0.10600 0.17194
2095 0.10600 0.17242
2096 0.10600 0.17289
2097 0.10600 0.17335
2098 0.10600 0.17381
2099 0.10600 0.17427
2100 0.10600 0.17473
2101 0.10600 0.17518
2102 0.10600 0.17563
2103 0.10600 0.17607
2104 0.10600 0.17652
2105 0.10600 0.17696
2106 0.10600 0.17739
2107 0.10600 0.17782
2108 0.10600 0.17824
2109 0.10600 0.17866
2110 0.10600 0.17907
2111 0.10600 0.17947
2112 0.10600 0.17987
2113 0.10600 0.18026
2114 0.10600 0.18065
2115 0.10600 0.18103
2116 0.10600 0.18141
2117 0.10600 0.18178
2118 0.10600 0.18215
2119 0.10600 0.18251
2120 0.10600 0.18288
2121 0.10600 0.18324
2122 0.10600 0.18360
2123 0.10600 0.18396
2124 0.10600 0.18432
2125 0.10600 0.18468
2126 0.10600 0.18505
2127 0.10600 0.18541
2128 0.10600 0.18578
2129 0.10600 0.18615
2130 0.10600 0.18652
2131 0.10600 0.18689
2132 0.10600 0.18726
2133 0.10600 0.18763
2134 0.10600 0.18801
2135 0.10600 0.18837
2136 0.10600 0.18874
2137 0.10600 0.18911
2138 0.10600 0.18947
2139 0.10600 0.18984
2140 0.10600 0.19020
2141 0.10600 0.19056
2142 0.10600 0.19092
2143 0.10600 0.19127
2144 0.10600 0.19162
2145 0.10600 0.19197
2146 0.10600 0.19232
2147 0.10600 0.19266
2148 0.10600 0.19301
2149 0.10600 0.19335
2150 0.10600 0.19369
2151 0.10600 0.19403
2152 0.10600 0.19437
2153 0.10600 0.19471
2154 0.10600 0.19505
2155 0.10600 0.19539
2156 0.10600 0.19573
2157 0.10600 0.19607
2158 0.10600 0.19641
2159 0.10600 0.19675
2160 0.10600 0.19708
2161 0.10600 0.19742
2162 0.10600 0.19775
2163 0.10600 0.19809
2164 0.10600 0.19842
2165 0.10600 0.19875
2166 0.10600 0.19908
2167 0.10600 0.19940
2168 0.10600 0.19973
2169 0.10600 0.20005
2170 0.10600 0.20038
2171 0.10600 0.20070
2172 0.10600 0.20102
2173 0.10600 0.20134
2174 0.10600 0.20165
2175 0.10600 0.20197
2176 0.10600 0.20229
2177 0.10600 0.20260
2178 0.10600 0.20292
2179 0.10600 0.20323
2180 0.10600 0.20355
2181 0.10600 0.20386
2182 0.10600 0.20417
2183 0.10600 0.20448
2184 0.10600 0.20480
2185 0.10600 0.20511
2186 0.10600 0.20542
2187 0.10600 0.20572
2188 0.10600 0.20603
2189 0.10600 0.20634
2190 0.10600 0.20665
2191 0.10600 0.20695
2192 0.10600 0.20726
2193 0.10600 0.20756
2194 0.10600 0.20786
2195 0.10600 0.20817
2196 0.10600 0.20847
2197 0.10600 0.20877
2198 0.10600 0.20907
2199 0.10600 0.20936
2200 0.10600 0.20966
2201 0.10600 0.20996
2202 0.10600 0.21026
2203 0.10600 0.21055
2204 0.10600 0.21085
2205 0.10600 0.21114
2206 0.10600 0.21144
2207 0.10600 0.21174
2208 0.10600 0.21203
2209 0.10600 0.21233
2210 0.10600 0.21262
2211 0.10600 0.21292
2212 0.10600 0.21322
2213 0.10600 0.21351
2214 0.10600 0.21381
2215 0.10600 0.21410
2216 0.10600 0.21440
2217 0.10600 0.21469
2218 0.10600 0.21499
2219 0.10600 0.21528
2220 0.10600 0.21558
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Under the balanced budget tax policy, the combined payroll tax rate increases linearly each year beginning in 2010 43 until reaching about 12.9 percent in 2049 and then increases annually at a faster linear rate until reaching about 16.3 percent in 2080. This tax rate schedule has the effect of extending the drawdown of the OASI trust fund so that the trust fund/expenditure ratio gradually declines until equaling 1.0 in 2080, analogous to the corresponding pattern under the balanced budget award policy.

Financial balance is defined for both of the balanced budget policies as the attainment and maintenance of a trust fund equal to annual expenditures by 2080 and in all subsequent years.44 The tax rates displayed in Chart 2 beyond 2080 for the balanced budget tax policy, then, are derived endogenously as the tax rates required to maintain an annual trust fund/expenditure ratio of 1.0 in each of those years. As such, this policy illustrates the extent of the tax rate increases required to maintain solvency with present law benefit provisions under the extended Trustees Report assumptions.

Primarily because of the projected continuing improvements in mortality, the payroll tax rates required to maintain an annual trust fund equal to annual expenditures continue to increase over the full simulation period, reaching a combined rate of nearly 21.6 percent by 2220, the last simulation year. Continuing increases in contributions to maintain financial balance in response to continuing mortality improvements are equivalent to a continuing succession of small program expansions. As a consequence, such a policy is not sustainable over the very long-run. At some point, further increases in contributions would cause the program to grow beyond its optimal size. This general increasing contribution or benefit reduction consequence of continuing mortality improvements applies to any retirement program, regardless of its ownership or funding basis (whether publicly or privately owned, whether fully funded, partially funded, or funded on a pure pay-as-you-go basis).45

Money's Worth and Redistributional Measures by Birth Cohort

The remaining charts and tables in this section present various money's worth and redistributional measures of lifetime outcomes by birth cohort under present law and under the two stylized balanced budget policies. Appendices A through C present corresponding estimates in table form by single-year birth cohort under each of the policies.

Real Internal Rate of Return. One measure of the relative balance between taxes and benefits for each birth cohort is the internal rate of return. The real internal rate of return 46 for each annual birth cohort considered in this analysis is displayed in Chart 3 under the three alternative policies. One striking feature of Chart 3 is the steep decline in internal rates of return across the early birth cohorts, following the expected general pattern for a maturing pay-as-you-go social insurance program that grants generous benefits to early cohorts that have not contributed to the program over full working lives. The real internal rate falls from 18.37 percent for the collective cohort group born through 1900 to about 2.71 percent for the 1945 single-year birth cohort under each of the policies considered.47 Lifetime outcomes for these early cohorts are largely unaffected by the prospective policy changes considered in this analysis, but the rates of return begin to diverge more noticeably across policies for cohorts born after about 1950.

Chart 3.
OASI real internal rate of return, expressed as a percent, by policy and cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 3. OASI real internal rate of return, expressed as a percent, by policy and cohort
Cohort Present law Balanced budget award Balanced budget tax
1901 10.868 10.868 10.868
1902 10.481 10.481 10.481
1903 10.329 10.329 10.329
1904 9.881 9.881 9.881
1905 9.444 9.444 9.444
1906 9.061 9.061 9.061
1907 8.950 8.950 8.950
1908 8.583 8.583 8.583
1909 8.170 8.170 8.170
1910 7.918 7.918 7.918
1911 7.827 7.827 7.827
1912 7.447 7.447 7.447
1913 7.319 7.319 7.319
1914 6.948 6.948 6.948
1915 6.820 6.820 6.820
1916 6.650 6.650 6.650
1917 6.333 6.333 6.333
1918 5.912 5.912 5.912
1919 5.578 5.578 5.578
1920 5.378 5.378 5.378
1921 5.098 5.098 5.098
1922 4.949 4.949 4.949
1923 4.748 4.748 4.748
1924 4.554 4.554 4.554
1925 4.453 4.453 4.453
1926 4.249 4.249 4.249
1927 4.114 4.114 4.114
1928 3.910 3.910 3.910
1929 3.735 3.734 3.734
1930 3.627 3.627 3.627
1931 3.546 3.546 3.546
1932 3.476 3.476 3.476
1933 3.259 3.259 3.259
1934 3.228 3.228 3.228
1935 3.068 3.068 3.068
1936 2.995 2.995 2.994
1937 3.127 3.127 3.127
1938 2.966 2.966 2.965
1939 2.946 2.946 2.945
1940 2.882 2.881 2.881
1941 2.837 2.836 2.835
1942 2.645 2.644 2.643
1943 2.653 2.652 2.651
1944 2.745 2.744 2.743
1945 2.717 2.715 2.714
1946 2.668 2.665 2.665
1947 2.621 2.617 2.617
1948 2.681 2.675 2.676
1949 2.743 2.728 2.737
1950 2.759 2.731 2.752
1951 2.711 2.668 2.702
1952 2.709 2.649 2.699
1953 2.745 2.657 2.733
1954 2.727 2.612 2.712
1955 2.686 2.542 2.668
1956 2.666 2.494 2.645
1957 2.643 2.441 2.618
1958 2.627 2.396 2.598
1959 2.580 2.317 2.546
1960 2.499 2.205 2.460
1961 2.528 2.204 2.485
1962 2.525 2.170 2.476
1963 2.549 2.162 2.493
1964 2.534 2.117 2.472
1965 2.541 2.092 2.471
1966 2.547 2.067 2.470
1967 2.550 2.037 2.463
1968 2.559 2.015 2.463
1969 2.541 1.968 2.437
1970 2.514 1.912 2.400
1971 2.527 1.894 2.403
1972 2.545 1.880 2.409
1973 2.529 1.837 2.383
1974 2.521 1.802 2.364
1975 2.513 1.766 2.344
1976 2.502 1.728 2.321
1977 2.495 1.694 2.302
1978 2.501 1.674 2.295
1979 2.501 1.649 2.282
1980 2.480 1.603 2.247
1981 2.491 1.590 2.244
1982 2.501 1.576 2.240
1983 2.519 1.571 2.241
1984 2.536 1.566 2.243
1985 2.546 1.555 2.237
1986 2.557 1.546 2.233
1987 2.567 1.535 2.227
1988 2.578 1.526 2.222
1989 2.584 1.513 2.212
1990 2.593 1.502 2.205
1991 2.602 1.493 2.198
1992 2.617 1.488 2.196
1993 2.632 1.485 2.194
1994 2.645 1.479 2.190
1995 2.652 1.469 2.180
1996 2.666 1.464 2.176
1997 2.677 1.457 2.170
1998 2.686 1.448 2.160
1999 2.698 1.442 2.154
2000 2.701 1.428 2.139
2001 2.713 1.422 2.131
2002 2.726 1.418 2.125
2003 2.738 1.414 2.117
2004 2.750 1.409 2.110
2005 2.761 1.404 2.101
2006 2.769 1.396 2.089
2007 2.781 1.392 2.081
2008 2.792 1.388 2.071
2009 2.800 1.382 2.058
2010 2.810 1.378 2.047
2011 2.818 1.374 2.034
2012 2.828 1.372 2.023
2013 2.837 1.371 2.010
2014 2.846 1.371 1.998
2015 2.855 1.367 1.986
2016 2.864 1.366 1.973
2017 2.872 1.365 1.960
2018 2.881 1.366 1.947
2019 2.889 1.368 1.934
2020 2.896 1.366 1.919
2021 2.903 1.368 1.905
2022 2.910 1.371 1.890
2023 2.916 1.375 1.876
2024 2.922 1.380 1.862
2025 2.929 1.383 1.847
2026 2.935 1.387 1.833
2027 2.941 1.388 1.819
2028 2.946 1.388 1.805
2029 2.952 1.387 1.791
2030 2.957 1.385 1.777
2031 2.962 1.383 1.764
2032 2.967 1.379 1.751
2033 2.973 1.376 1.739
2034 2.978 1.372 1.727
2035 2.983 1.368 1.716
2036 2.988 1.365 1.705
2037 2.993 1.362 1.694
2038 2.998 1.359 1.684
2039 3.003 1.356 1.675
2040 3.009 1.354 1.666
2041 3.013 1.352 1.657
2042 3.019 1.351 1.649
2043 3.024 1.350 1.641
2044 3.029 1.350 1.634
2045 3.034 1.350 1.627
2046 3.039 1.351 1.620
2047 3.045 1.351 1.614
2048 3.049 1.352 1.608
2049 3.054 1.353 1.602
2050 3.059 1.354 1.597
2051 3.064 1.355 1.592
2052 3.069 1.356 1.588
2053 3.074 1.356 1.583
2054 3.079 1.357 1.579
2055 3.084 1.358 1.576
2056 3.089 1.358 1.572
2057 3.094 1.358 1.569
2058 3.099 1.357 1.566
2059 3.103 1.356 1.563
2060 3.107 1.355 1.560
2061 3.112 1.354 1.558
2062 3.116 1.352 1.555
2063 3.121 1.350 1.553
2064 3.125 1.349 1.551
2065 3.130 1.347 1.549
2066 3.134 1.346 1.547
2067 3.139 1.345 1.546
2068 3.144 1.344 1.544
2069 3.149 1.343 1.543
2070 3.154 1.342 1.541
2071 3.159 1.342 1.540
2072 3.164 1.341 1.539
2073 3.169 1.341 1.537
2074 3.174 1.341 1.536
2075 3.179 1.342 1.535
2076 3.183 1.342 1.534
2077 3.188 1.342 1.533
2078 3.193 1.343 1.531
2079 3.198 1.343 1.531
2080 3.203 1.344 1.530
2081 3.207 1.345 1.529
2082 3.212 1.345 1.528
2083 3.217 1.346 1.527
2084 3.221 1.346 1.526
2085 3.226 1.346 1.524
2086 3.230 1.346 1.523
2087 3.235 1.346 1.522
2088 3.239 1.345 1.521
2089 3.243 1.345 1.520
2090 3.248 1.345 1.519
2091 3.252 1.344 1.519
2092 3.256 1.344 1.518
2093 3.261 1.343 1.517
2094 3.265 1.343 1.516
2095 3.269 1.343 1.515
2096 3.273 1.342 1.514
2097 3.278 1.342 1.513
2098 3.282 1.342 1.512
2099 3.286 1.342 1.511
2100 3.290 1.342 1.510
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Because award reductions affect earlier cohorts than tax increases when instituted at about the same time, the internal rates of return in Chart 3 are lower for earlier affected cohorts under the balanced budget award policy than under the balanced budget tax policy. For later cohorts, internal rates remain higher in Chart 3 under the balanced budget tax policy than the under the balanced budget award policy in large part because the balanced budget tax policy effectively incorporates a succession of small program expansions in response to declining mortality rates.48 For the most distant cohorts, the projected internal rates of return in Chart 3 are about 1.34 percent under the balanced budget award policy and about 1.51 percent under the balanced budget tax policy.

Clearly, the earliest cohorts have gotten much more than their money's worth from the OASI program as indicated by their very high internal rates of return. Whether all present and future cohorts will continue to receive their money's worth from the program is a much more difficult question to answer because of disagreement over the appropriate rate of interest to use for comparison. If a risk-adjusted real interest rate less than about 1.35 percent is deemed appropriate, as suggested by some research,49 then the estimates displayed in Chart 3 indicate that even the most distant birth cohorts are projected to receive their money's worth from the OASI program under either of the balanced budget policies considered. If instead a risk-adjusted real interest rate of 2 percent or above is considered appropriate,50 then the estimates displayed in Chart 3 indicate that no cohort born after about 2015 is projected to receive their money's worth from the program under either of the balanced budget policies considered.

While internal rates of return under all three policies are included in Chart 3 for expositional convenience, it should be noted that it is inappropriate to compare money's worth and redistributional outcomes across policies that have different unfunded liabilities.51 In the context of the present analysis, policies with different unfunded liabilities likely also have different macroeconomic effects and related behavioral responses 52 that are inconsistent with the fixed economic and demographic assumption set upon which the analysis is based.53 As such, analyses based on an essentially fixed set of economic and demographic assumptions are best suited to examining the redistributional effects of a given policy or of alternative policies with equal unfunded liabilities where it might reasonably be assumed that the policies are consistent with the fixed assumption set.54 The present analysis consequently focuses on the intercohort money's worth and redistributional effects of a given policy conditional on the extended Trustees Report demographic and economic assumption set, although differences in estimated outcomes across the policies are explained in the context of this fixed assumption set.55

In addition, outcomes under present law are not discussed for the remaining money's worth and redistributional measures considered in this analysis because the present program is projected to be out of long-run financial balance. For money's worth and redistributional measures to be meaningful, the analysis must include all of the funding sources that are required to finance the benefits included in the analysis, a requirement that the present program fails to satisfy without further assumptions about how the long-run deficit in the program will be resolved.56

Lifetime Benefit/Tax Ratio. Another relative money's worth measure is the lifetime benefit/tax ratio, defined here as the ratio of the present values of lifetime benefits and taxes for each birth cohort as a whole using a particular interest rate series. A lifetime benefit/tax ratio of one, then, indicates that the estimated present values of lifetime benefits and taxes are equal for the cohort as a whole. Ratios greater (less) than one indicate that lifetime benefits are estimated to be greater (less) than lifetime taxes for that cohort.

The estimated OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio across birth cohorts for each of the four interest rate series considered in this analysis under the two balanced budget policies are displayed in Charts 4 and 5. Both charts exhibit a relatively rapid decline in the lifetime benefit/tax ratio across the early cohorts, analogous to the decline in internal rates of return across those cohorts. Under each of the balanced budget policies, the lifetime benefit/tax ratio for the collective cohort group born through 1900 ranges from 12.04 under the OASI trust fund interest rate assumption to 3.21 under the large company stock total rate of return series. By the 1945 single-year birth cohort, these ratios are lower under all of the interest rate assumptions, ranging from 2.14 for the zero real interest rate series to 0.26 for the large company stock series. As with the real internal rate of return measure, the lifetime benefit/tax ratios begin to diverge more noticeably between the two balanced budget policies for cohorts born after about 1950, as projected benefits and taxes begin to play a more important role and historical outcomes a less important or nonexistent role. For the most distant cohort (born in 2100) simulated in this analysis, the lifetime benefit/tax ratio ranges from 1.53 for the zero real interest rate series to 0.21 for the large company stock series under the award adjustment policy (Chart 4) and ranges from 1.61 for the zero real interest rate series to 0.22 for the large company stock series under the tax adjustment policy (Chart 5).

Chart 4.
OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 4. OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186
1902 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168
1903 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244
1904 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163
1905 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064
1906 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985
1907 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030
1908 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935
1909 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807
1910 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714
1911 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718
1912 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574
1913 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508
1914 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357
1915 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288
1916 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210
1917 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082
1918 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927
1919 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835
1920 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754
1921 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673
1922 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619
1923 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565
1924 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519
1925 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490
1926 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447
1927 2.776 1.426 1.259 0.419
1928 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387
1929 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360
1930 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344
1931 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330
1932 2.442 1.264 0.980 0.318
1933 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296
1934 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295
1935 2.246 1.162 0.851 0.285
1936 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284
1937 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295
1938 2.228 1.165 0.805 0.284
1939 2.232 1.172 0.797 0.283
1940 2.203 1.164 0.778 0.279
1941 2.189 1.163 0.765 0.273
1942 2.097 1.115 0.720 0.255
1943 2.109 1.131 0.720 0.254
1944 2.157 1.174 0.739 0.260
1945 2.142 1.177 0.732 0.256
1946 2.123 1.174 0.719 0.243
1947 2.102 1.171 0.709 0.235
1948 2.135 1.202 0.723 0.236
1949 2.164 1.230 0.736 0.239
1950 2.167 1.242 0.739 0.237
1951 2.136 1.230 0.728 0.233
1952 2.126 1.233 0.728 0.234
1953 2.128 1.245 0.735 0.241
1954 2.105 1.239 0.730 0.244
1955 2.065 1.224 0.723 0.248
1956 2.035 1.216 0.721 0.260
1957 2.002 1.206 0.720 0.277
1958 1.978 1.199 0.720 0.290
1959 1.936 1.181 0.715 0.301
1960 1.883 1.152 0.701 0.310
1961 1.880 1.159 0.713 0.332
1962 1.865 1.156 0.717 0.345
1963 1.858 1.161 0.727 0.364
1964 1.839 1.153 0.727 0.379
1965 1.826 1.152 0.732 0.399
1966 1.813 1.150 0.737 0.418
1967 1.795 1.146 0.739 0.434
1968 1.783 1.145 0.741 0.443
1969 1.763 1.135 0.735 0.443
1970 1.737 1.122 0.728 0.446
1971 1.729 1.121 0.727 0.444
1972 1.722 1.122 0.727 0.440
1973 1.703 1.113 0.719 0.428
1974 1.689 1.106 0.712 0.417
1975 1.673 1.099 0.705 0.405
1976 1.656 1.090 0.697 0.392
1977 1.642 1.083 0.690 0.382
1978 1.633 1.080 0.686 0.366
1979 1.623 1.075 0.679 0.348
1980 1.603 1.063 0.670 0.331
1981 1.597 1.061 0.666 0.316
1982 1.591 1.059 0.663 0.304
1983 1.589 1.059 0.662 0.298
1984 1.586 1.059 0.662 0.296
1985 1.581 1.057 0.659 0.294
1986 1.578 1.056 0.657 0.288
1987 1.574 1.054 0.654 0.284
1988 1.570 1.052 0.652 0.283
1989 1.564 1.049 0.649 0.279
1990 1.560 1.047 0.646 0.277
1991 1.557 1.045 0.644 0.273
1992 1.555 1.045 0.643 0.273
1993 1.554 1.045 0.641 0.271
1994 1.552 1.044 0.640 0.270
1995 1.548 1.042 0.638 0.269
1996 1.546 1.042 0.636 0.268
1997 1.543 1.041 0.635 0.268
1998 1.540 1.039 0.633 0.268
1999 1.537 1.039 0.632 0.268
2000 1.531 1.035 0.629 0.268
2001 1.529 1.035 0.628 0.268
2002 1.527 1.034 0.627 0.268
2003 1.525 1.034 0.626 0.268
2004 1.523 1.034 0.626 0.268
2005 1.521 1.033 0.625 0.268
2006 1.518 1.032 0.623 0.268
2007 1.516 1.031 0.622 0.269
2008 1.515 1.031 0.622 0.269
2009 1.512 1.030 0.620 0.269
2010 1.511 1.030 0.620 0.269
2011 1.510 1.029 0.619 0.269
2012 1.509 1.029 0.618 0.268
2013 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268
2014 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268
2015 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.268
2016 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.267
2017 1.508 1.030 0.616 0.267
2018 1.509 1.031 0.616 0.266
2019 1.510 1.032 0.616 0.266
2020 1.510 1.032 0.615 0.264
2021 1.511 1.032 0.615 0.263
2022 1.514 1.034 0.615 0.262
2023 1.516 1.035 0.616 0.261
2024 1.518 1.037 0.616 0.260
2025 1.521 1.038 0.616 0.259
2026 1.523 1.040 0.616 0.258
2027 1.524 1.040 0.616 0.257
2028 1.525 1.040 0.616 0.256
2029 1.525 1.040 0.615 0.255
2030 1.525 1.040 0.614 0.253
2031 1.524 1.039 0.614 0.252
2032 1.523 1.038 0.613 0.251
2033 1.522 1.037 0.612 0.249
2034 1.521 1.036 0.610 0.248
2035 1.520 1.035 0.609 0.246
2036 1.519 1.034 0.608 0.245
2037 1.518 1.033 0.607 0.244
2038 1.517 1.032 0.606 0.242
2039 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.241
2040 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.240
2041 1.516 1.030 0.604 0.239
2042 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.238
2043 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.237
2044 1.516 1.030 0.602 0.236
2045 1.517 1.030 0.602 0.235
2046 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.234
2047 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.233
2048 1.519 1.030 0.601 0.232
2049 1.520 1.031 0.601 0.231
2050 1.521 1.031 0.601 0.231
2051 1.522 1.031 0.601 0.230
2052 1.523 1.032 0.601 0.229
2053 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228
2054 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228
2055 1.525 1.032 0.600 0.227
2056 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226
2057 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226
2058 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.225
2059 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224
2060 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224
2061 1.526 1.031 0.598 0.223
2062 1.526 1.031 0.597 0.222
2063 1.525 1.030 0.597 0.221
2064 1.525 1.030 0.596 0.221
2065 1.524 1.029 0.596 0.220
2066 1.524 1.029 0.595 0.220
2067 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219
2068 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219
2069 1.524 1.028 0.594 0.219
2070 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2071 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2072 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2073 1.524 1.027 0.593 0.218
2074 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217
2075 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217
2076 1.526 1.027 0.593 0.217
2077 1.526 1.028 0.593 0.217
2078 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217
2079 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217
2080 1.528 1.028 0.593 0.217
2081 1.529 1.028 0.593 0.217
2082 1.529 1.029 0.593 0.217
2083 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217
2084 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217
2085 1.531 1.029 0.593 0.216
2086 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2087 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2088 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2089 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2090 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216
2091 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216
2092 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.216
2093 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2094 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2095 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2096 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215
2097 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215
2098 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215
2099 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215
2100 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.214
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Chart 5.
OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 5. OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186
1902 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168
1903 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244
1904 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163
1905 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064
1906 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985
1907 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030
1908 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935
1909 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807
1910 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714
1911 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718
1912 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574
1913 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508
1914 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357
1915 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288
1916 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210
1917 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082
1918 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927
1919 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835
1920 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754
1921 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673
1922 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619
1923 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565
1924 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519
1925 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490
1926 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447
1927 2.775 1.426 1.259 0.419
1928 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387
1929 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360
1930 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344
1931 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330
1932 2.441 1.264 0.980 0.318
1933 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296
1934 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295
1935 2.245 1.162 0.851 0.285
1936 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284
1937 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295
1938 2.227 1.165 0.805 0.284
1939 2.231 1.171 0.797 0.283
1940 2.202 1.164 0.778 0.279
1941 2.188 1.163 0.765 0.273
1942 2.095 1.115 0.720 0.255
1943 2.107 1.131 0.720 0.254
1944 2.154 1.173 0.738 0.260
1945 2.140 1.177 0.731 0.256
1946 2.120 1.174 0.720 0.243
1947 2.100 1.170 0.709 0.235
1948 2.133 1.202 0.723 0.236
1949 2.166 1.233 0.738 0.239
1950 2.176 1.249 0.744 0.238
1951 2.153 1.241 0.736 0.235
1952 2.152 1.250 0.738 0.237
1953 2.169 1.272 0.751 0.245
1954 2.160 1.274 0.752 0.248
1955 2.133 1.268 0.749 0.254
1956 2.117 1.268 0.753 0.266
1957 2.096 1.267 0.757 0.285
1958 2.084 1.269 0.763 0.299
1959 2.056 1.260 0.762 0.312
1960 2.014 1.239 0.754 0.322
1961 2.024 1.255 0.772 0.346
1962 2.021 1.260 0.781 0.360
1963 2.027 1.274 0.797 0.381
1964 2.020 1.274 0.802 0.397
1965 2.018 1.282 0.814 0.419
1966 2.016 1.288 0.823 0.439
1967 2.008 1.291 0.831 0.457
1968 2.005 1.298 0.838 0.468
1969 1.995 1.294 0.837 0.469
1970 1.977 1.287 0.833 0.473
1971 1.979 1.294 0.837 0.472
1972 1.980 1.302 0.842 0.470
1973 1.969 1.298 0.838 0.459
1974 1.961 1.297 0.835 0.449
1975 1.952 1.295 0.831 0.438
1976 1.941 1.291 0.826 0.426
1977 1.933 1.289 0.822 0.417
1978 1.930 1.290 0.820 0.402
1979 1.925 1.289 0.816 0.385
1980 1.908 1.280 0.808 0.368
1981 1.907 1.281 0.807 0.354
1982 1.905 1.282 0.806 0.343
1983 1.905 1.285 0.806 0.337
1984 1.905 1.287 0.807 0.336
1985 1.902 1.287 0.805 0.333
1986 1.901 1.287 0.804 0.328
1987 1.899 1.287 0.802 0.324
1988 1.897 1.287 0.801 0.322
1989 1.893 1.285 0.798 0.319
1990 1.890 1.284 0.795 0.316
1991 1.888 1.283 0.793 0.313
1992 1.887 1.284 0.793 0.312
1993 1.887 1.285 0.792 0.310
1994 1.885 1.285 0.791 0.308
1995 1.881 1.283 0.788 0.307
1996 1.879 1.283 0.787 0.306
1997 1.876 1.282 0.785 0.306
1998 1.871 1.280 0.783 0.305
1999 1.868 1.279 0.781 0.305
2000 1.860 1.274 0.778 0.304
2001 1.856 1.273 0.776 0.303
2002 1.853 1.272 0.775 0.303
2003 1.849 1.270 0.773 0.302
2004 1.845 1.269 0.771 0.302
2005 1.840 1.267 0.769 0.302
2006 1.834 1.263 0.767 0.301
2007 1.830 1.261 0.765 0.301
2008 1.825 1.259 0.763 0.300
2009 1.818 1.255 0.760 0.300
2010 1.813 1.252 0.757 0.299
2011 1.807 1.248 0.755 0.298
2012 1.801 1.245 0.752 0.298
2013 1.795 1.241 0.749 0.297
2014 1.790 1.238 0.747 0.296
2015 1.784 1.234 0.744 0.294
2016 1.778 1.230 0.741 0.293
2017 1.772 1.226 0.738 0.292
2018 1.766 1.222 0.735 0.291
2019 1.760 1.218 0.732 0.289
2020 1.754 1.214 0.728 0.288
2021 1.748 1.209 0.725 0.286
2022 1.742 1.204 0.722 0.284
2023 1.735 1.200 0.718 0.282
2024 1.729 1.195 0.715 0.280
2025 1.723 1.191 0.712 0.278
2026 1.718 1.186 0.708 0.276
2027 1.712 1.182 0.705 0.274
2028 1.706 1.177 0.702 0.272
2029 1.700 1.173 0.698 0.270
2030 1.695 1.168 0.695 0.268
2031 1.690 1.164 0.692 0.266
2032 1.685 1.160 0.689 0.265
2033 1.680 1.156 0.686 0.263
2034 1.675 1.152 0.683 0.261
2035 1.671 1.149 0.680 0.259
2036 1.667 1.145 0.677 0.258
2037 1.663 1.142 0.675 0.256
2038 1.659 1.138 0.672 0.254
2039 1.656 1.135 0.670 0.253
2040 1.652 1.133 0.668 0.251
2041 1.649 1.130 0.666 0.250
2042 1.646 1.127 0.664 0.249
2043 1.644 1.125 0.662 0.247
2044 1.641 1.122 0.660 0.246
2045 1.639 1.120 0.658 0.245
2046 1.636 1.118 0.656 0.244
2047 1.634 1.116 0.655 0.243
2048 1.632 1.114 0.653 0.241
2049 1.631 1.112 0.651 0.240
2050 1.629 1.111 0.650 0.239
2051 1.627 1.109 0.649 0.238
2052 1.626 1.108 0.647 0.237
2053 1.625 1.106 0.646 0.236
2054 1.624 1.105 0.645 0.236
2055 1.623 1.104 0.644 0.235
2056 1.622 1.103 0.643 0.234
2057 1.621 1.102 0.642 0.233
2058 1.620 1.101 0.641 0.233
2059 1.619 1.100 0.641 0.232
2060 1.618 1.099 0.640 0.231
2061 1.618 1.098 0.639 0.231
2062 1.617 1.098 0.638 0.230
2063 1.617 1.097 0.638 0.229
2064 1.616 1.096 0.637 0.229
2065 1.616 1.096 0.636 0.228
2066 1.615 1.095 0.636 0.228
2067 1.615 1.095 0.635 0.228
2068 1.615 1.094 0.635 0.227
2069 1.614 1.094 0.634 0.227
2070 1.614 1.093 0.634 0.227
2071 1.614 1.093 0.633 0.227
2072 1.614 1.093 0.633 0.227
2073 1.614 1.092 0.633 0.226
2074 1.613 1.092 0.632 0.226
2075 1.613 1.091 0.632 0.226
2076 1.613 1.091 0.632 0.226
2077 1.613 1.091 0.631 0.226
2078 1.613 1.090 0.631 0.226
2079 1.613 1.090 0.631 0.226
2080 1.613 1.090 0.630 0.225
2081 1.613 1.089 0.630 0.225
2082 1.612 1.089 0.630 0.225
2083 1.612 1.089 0.629 0.225
2084 1.612 1.089 0.629 0.225
2085 1.612 1.088 0.629 0.225
2086 1.612 1.088 0.628 0.225
2087 1.612 1.088 0.628 0.224
2088 1.612 1.087 0.628 0.224
2089 1.612 1.087 0.627 0.224
2090 1.612 1.087 0.627 0.224
2091 1.611 1.086 0.627 0.224
2092 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.224
2093 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.224
2094 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.223
2095 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2096 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2097 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2098 1.611 1.084 0.625 0.223
2099 1.611 1.084 0.624 0.223
2100 1.611 1.084 0.624 0.223
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

The general levels of and relationships among the lifetime benefit/tax ratio plots for each interest rate series in both Charts 4 and 5 reflect the general levels of and relationships among the interest rate series themselves-generally, the higher the interest rate assumption, the lower the lifetime benefit/tax ratio, given the predominant life cycle pattern of early tax payments and later benefit receipts under the OASI program. Over the entire projection period and much of the historical period, the general order of the interest rate series, from lowest to highest, is the zero real, OASI tax base growth rate, OASI trust fund, and large company stock series. The early-cohort cross-over in the lifetime benefit/tax ratio measures between the tax base growth rate and trust fund interest rate assumptions in both Charts 4 and 5 is linked to a corresponding cross-over in the historical levels of those interest rate series.57

A result of special interest in Charts 4 and 5 is the level of the benefit/tax ratios under each policy and interest rate assumption relative to a value of one. Under all of the interest rate assumptions, the benefit/tax ratios for the earliest cohorts exceed one by substantial margins, indicating lifetime benefits well in excess of lifetime taxes. As was evident with the internal rate of return measure, however, the question of whether present and future cohorts will continue to experience lifetime benefits in excess of lifetime taxes depends critically on the risk-adjusted interest rate deemed appropriate for the lifetime benefit/tax ratio calculation.

The lifetime benefit/tax ratios displayed in Charts 4 and 5 exceed one for all past, present, and future birth cohorts for both the zero real and tax base growth rate interest rate assumptions under either balanced budget policy. This result is consistent with the interpretation that factors such as the market-improving and portfolio-enhancing features of the OASI program justify the use of a relatively low interest rate in the lifetime benefit/tax calculation and imply that all cohorts can benefit from the establishment and continuation of such a program.

In contrast, the lifetime benefit/tax ratios fall below one for many present and all future birth cohorts for both the trust fund and large company stock interest rate assumptions under either balanced budget policy. This result is consistent with the interpretation that factors such as the market-improving and portfolio-enhancing features of the OASI program are insufficient to justify the use of a relatively low interest rate or are dominated by offsetting program characteristics such as perceived political risk differentials, making a higher interest rate assumption more appropriate.58 Because a mature public retirement program financed on an essentially pay-as-you-go basis tends to generate a rate of return for program participants largely determined by the growth rate in the program's tax base, lifetime benefit/tax ratios will tend to be greater (less) than one if a risk-adjusted interest rate series generally smaller (larger) than the growth rate in the program tax base is used to calculate lifetime taxes and benefits.

Lifetime Net Transfer per Initial Cohort Member. In contrast to the relative measures of lifetime outcomes presented thus far, measures of the absolute difference between lifetime benefits and taxes under the OASI program across birth cohorts are displayed in Charts 6 through 9. These charts again illustrate the dependence of OASI lifetime money's worth and redistributional estimates on the particular interest rate assumption used to evaluate program outcomes but also illustrate that the relationships across the alternative interest rate series can differ between the relative and absolute measures.

The estimates displayed in Charts 6 and 7 can be interpreted as evaluating money's worth outcomes from the perspective of program participants. These charts display the present value of lifetime net transfers (benefits less taxes) under the program for each birth cohort as a whole divided by the initial population of the cohort. The lifetime net transfer for each cohort is evaluated as of the end of the "initial cohort year," defined as the birth year of the cohort or as 1937, the first year of OASI benefit and tax payments, for cohorts born prior to 1937.59 These present values are then converted to constant dollars reflecting the 2001 price level. The aggregate real lifetime net transfer estimated for each cohort as a whole is divided by the number of initial members of that cohort to provide a feel for the level of estimated net lifetime transfers per person in each birth cohort.60 For cohorts born in 1937 or later, the initial cohort population is defined as the population of the cohort as of the end of their birth year. For cohorts born prior to 1937, the initial cohort population is defined as the population of the cohort at the end of 1937. To summarize, then, the estimates displayed in Charts 6 and 7 represent the real present value of the lifetime net transfer under each interest rate assumption per initial member of each birth cohort as of the year of their birth or, if later, the beginning of the OASI program.

Chart 6.
OASI real lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 6. OASI real lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473
1902 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711
1903 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757
1904 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690
1905 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644
1906 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540
1907 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750
1908 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628
1909 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313
1910 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101
1911 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077
1912 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835
1913 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630
1914 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213
1915 100,249 8,595 73,098 945
1916 105,892 8,797 72,334 716
1917 96,988 7,647 61,573 267
1918 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256
1919 88,188 5,988 45,165 -554
1920 93,299 6,018 42,712 -881
1921 95,664 5,730 38,368 -1,245
1922 93,620 5,349 33,189 -1,404
1923 94,702 5,094 29,215 -1,626
1924 98,907 4,976 26,143 -1,899
1925 99,941 4,850 23,018 -1,982
1926 98,616 4,411 18,444 -2,153
1927 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342
1928 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499
1929 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570
1930 103,691 3,303 3,318 -2,670
1931 101,898 3,063 769 -2,593
1932 100,445 2,855 -1,314 -2,537
1933 94,504 2,200 -5,720 -2,553
1934 97,205 2,209 -6,862 -2,527
1935 95,619 1,804 -10,323 -2,568
1936 96,170 1,680 -12,209 -2,534
1937 103,462 2,239 -10,271 -2,373
1938 105,414 1,771 -14,973 -3,395
1939 108,072 2,079 -16,048 -3,323
1940 111,336 2,251 -18,399 -3,012
1941 110,043 2,529 -17,754 -2,343
1942 107,256 2,146 -20,590 -2,711
1943 111,030 2,793 -20,379 -3,240
1944 118,496 3,726 -18,826 -3,641
1945 123,101 3,729 -19,796 -4,912
1946 123,820 3,397 -17,848 -3,811
1947 124,513 3,474 -17,266 -3,658
1948 131,382 4,282 -16,335 -3,627
1949 138,416 4,848 -15,918 -4,235
1950 137,850 4,993 -14,576 -4,958
1951 138,025 6,242 -14,805 -5,723
1952 140,634 6,710 -14,970 -6,496
1953 142,209 7,314 -14,423 -5,975
1954 143,490 7,105 -15,062 -8,853
1955 140,383 7,778 -15,464 -10,910
1956 138,157 7,813 -15,112 -10,401
1957 135,530 7,627 -14,686 -8,177
1958 134,146 7,170 -14,379 -10,509
1959 132,034 7,238 -14,655 -10,739
1960 126,532 6,116 -15,206 -9,802
1961 127,277 6,359 -14,359 -10,865
1962 128,133 6,440 -14,146 -8,911
1963 128,235 6,623 -13,277 -9,443
1964 128,671 6,575 -13,356 -9,933
1965 129,487 6,798 -12,969 -9,785
1966 129,904 8,093 -12,505 -7,627
1967 131,264 8,172 -12,337 -8,314
1968 130,249 8,685 -11,746 -7,918
1969 128,355 8,114 -11,541 -6,346
1970 125,885 7,154 -11,575 -5,791
1971 126,518 7,047 -11,555 -5,961
1972 128,323 7,805 -11,583 -6,437
1973 128,366 7,774 -11,491 -4,884
1974 127,004 7,331 -10,885 -3,059
1975 125,695 6,637 -10,869 -3,754
1976 123,605 6,378 -11,101 -4,254
1977 121,805 6,026 -11,115 -3,538
1978 121,709 5,951 -10,858 -3,338
1979 120,458 5,665 -10,242 -3,373
1980 121,237 4,823 -10,260 -3,966
1981 120,420 4,627 -10,160 -3,317
1982 120,276 4,491 -10,697 -3,722
1983 120,731 4,595 -11,179 -4,161
1984 120,892 4,850 -11,743 -4,001
1985 120,390 4,791 -12,353 -4,793
1986 120,690 4,905 -13,410 -5,328
1987 120,372 4,768 -13,897 -5,073
1988 120,000 4,676 -14,311 -5,338
1989 119,015 4,449 -14,709 -6,319
1990 119,874 4,232 -15,027 -5,487
1991 120,325 4,033 -15,712 -6,599
1992 121,401 4,073 -16,348 -6,538
1993 122,712 4,119 -16,993 -6,643
1994 123,832 4,178 -17,646 -6,219
1995 124,459 4,060 -18,366 -7,906
1996 125,514 4,099 -18,848 -8,910
1997 126,086 4,187 -19,613 -11,036
1998 126,300 4,214 -20,373 -13,176
1999 126,866 4,268 -20,851 -14,654
2000 126,176 4,007 -21,194 -12,130
2001 126,966 4,047 -21,911 -9,951
2002 127,940 4,047 -22,643 -10,285
2003 128,842 4,114 -23,130 -10,497
2004 129,769 4,164 -23,573 -10,693
2005 130,587 4,168 -23,988 -10,870
2006 131,072 4,052 -24,418 -11,041
2007 132,008 4,092 -24,798 -11,210
2008 132,934 4,115 -25,181 -11,377
2009 133,651 4,045 -25,580 -11,539
2010 134,626 4,055 -25,948 -11,694
2011 135,618 4,046 -26,324 -11,850
2012 136,784 4,087 -26,681 -12,003
2013 138,180 4,181 -27,022 -12,153
2014 139,853 4,357 -27,337 -12,301
2015 140,925 4,304 -27,713 -12,450
2016 142,480 4,404 -28,039 -12,590
2017 143,986 4,468 -28,378 -12,733
2018 145,858 4,641 -28,691 -12,877
2019 147,916 4,863 -28,997 -13,024
2020 149,434 4,866 -29,377 -13,184
2021 151,533 5,063 -29,709 -13,344
2022 153,891 5,335 -30,024 -13,506
2023 156,414 5,653 -30,335 -13,672
2024 158,994 5,980 -30,647 -13,840
2025 161,553 6,284 -30,975 -14,015
2026 164,093 6,577 -31,307 -14,189
2027 166,206 6,738 -31,659 -14,359
2028 168,221 6,860 -32,025 -14,529
2029 170,120 6,930 -32,414 -14,706
2030 171,881 6,939 -32,825 -14,888
2031 173,567 6,915 -33,249 -15,072
2032 175,080 6,824 -33,693 -15,258
2033 176,594 6,727 -34,140 -15,443
2034 178,099 6,614 -34,599 -15,633
2035 179,614 6,493 -35,067 -15,828
2036 181,176 6,381 -35,535 -16,023
2037 182,792 6,279 -36,003 -16,220
2038 184,481 6,194 -36,471 -16,417
2039 186,254 6,130 -36,937 -16,616
2040 188,121 6,088 -37,402 -16,817
2041 190,071 6,062 -37,871 -17,022
2042 192,121 6,066 -38,333 -17,227
2043 194,264 6,098 -38,789 -17,431
2044 196,497 6,152 -39,244 -17,638
2045 198,841 6,241 -39,692 -17,844
2046 201,260 6,344 -40,143 -18,053
2047 203,752 6,462 -40,597 -18,265
2048 206,303 6,590 -41,054 -18,481
2049 208,917 6,733 -41,511 -18,696
2050 211,549 6,882 -41,968 -18,913
2051 214,226 7,033 -42,431 -19,132
2052 216,932 7,187 -42,897 -19,351
2053 219,642 7,327 -43,378 -19,577
2054 222,366 7,467 -43,860 -19,802
2055 225,090 7,598 -44,349 -20,029
2056 227,787 7,709 -44,850 -20,258
2057 230,451 7,792 -45,367 -20,492
2058 233,090 7,846 -45,904 -20,732
2059 235,697 7,868 -46,462 -20,979
2060 238,268 7,864 -47,036 -21,230
2061 240,821 7,840 -47,623 -21,485
2062 243,372 7,807 -48,214 -21,741
2063 245,929 7,764 -48,815 -21,998
2064 248,511 7,719 -49,422 -22,257
2065 251,125 7,670 -50,038 -22,520
2066 253,796 7,639 -50,651 -22,782
2067 256,508 7,619 -51,262 -23,043
2068 259,274 7,617 -51,867 -23,303
2069 262,098 7,633 -52,470 -23,563
2070 264,997 7,664 -53,074 -23,825
2071 267,981 7,714 -53,681 -24,089
2072 271,032 7,775 -54,292 -24,356
2073 274,148 7,846 -54,909 -24,626
2074 277,380 7,943 -55,527 -24,899
2075 280,697 8,061 -56,145 -25,173
2076 284,045 8,177 -56,773 -25,450
2077 287,500 8,303 -57,413 -25,734
2078 291,043 8,431 -58,073 -26,026
2079 294,495 8,611 -58,665 -26,294
2080 298,269 8,819 -59,306 -26,585
2081 301,867 8,962 -59,963 -26,877
2082 305,498 9,104 -60,627 -27,172
2083 309,127 9,232 -61,303 -27,471
2084 312,820 9,371 -61,984 -27,773
2085 316,533 9,503 -62,674 -28,078
2086 320,166 9,592 -63,384 -28,387
2087 323,824 9,675 -64,103 -28,699
2088 327,494 9,748 -64,833 -29,015
2089 331,186 9,815 -65,574 -29,335
2090 334,914 9,880 -66,323 -29,659
2091 338,675 9,940 -67,083 -29,986
2092 342,475 10,001 -67,851 -30,317
2093 346,330 10,064 -68,628 -30,652
2094 350,238 10,131 -69,414 -30,991
2095 354,205 10,203 -70,208 -31,333
2096 358,236 10,281 -71,010 -31,680
2097 362,329 10,364 -71,820 -32,031
2098 366,505 10,461 -72,637 -32,386
2099 370,747 10,563 -73,463 -32,745
2100 375,060 10,674 -74,297 -33,108
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Chart 7.
OASI real lifetime net transfer per initital cohort member under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 7. OASI real lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473
1902 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711
1903 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757
1904 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690
1905 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644
1906 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540
1907 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750
1908 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628
1909 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313
1910 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101
1911 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077
1912 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835
1913 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630
1914 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213
1915 100,249 8,595 73,098 945
1916 105,891 8,797 72,334 716
1917 96,988 7,647 61,573 267
1918 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256
1919 88,187 5,988 45,165 -554
1920 93,298 6,018 42,712 -881
1921 95,663 5,730 38,367 -1,245
1922 93,619 5,349 33,189 -1,404
1923 94,701 5,094 29,215 -1,626
1924 98,906 4,976 26,143 -1,899
1925 99,940 4,850 23,017 -1,982
1926 98,616 4,411 18,443 -2,153
1927 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342
1928 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499
1929 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570
1930 103,692 3,303 3,318 -2,670
1931 101,899 3,063 769 -2,593
1932 100,447 2,855 -1,314 -2,537
1933 94,506 2,200 -5,721 -2,553
1934 97,208 2,209 -6,863 -2,527
1935 95,621 1,804 -10,324 -2,568
1936 96,172 1,679 -12,210 -2,534
1937 103,463 2,239 -10,273 -2,373
1938 105,414 1,770 -14,976 -3,395
1939 108,069 2,078 -16,053 -3,323
1940 111,325 2,250 -18,406 -3,012
1941 110,026 2,527 -17,763 -2,343
1942 107,231 2,143 -20,601 -2,711
1943 110,995 2,788 -20,394 -3,241
1944 118,447 3,719 -18,845 -3,642
1945 123,076 3,725 -19,811 -4,912
1946 123,844 3,396 -17,855 -3,811
1947 124,602 3,478 -17,265 -3,658
1948 131,563 4,295 -16,324 -3,627
1949 139,227 4,918 -15,813 -4,234
1950 139,613 5,153 -14,341 -4,953
1951 140,904 6,582 -14,435 -5,714
1952 144,920 7,241 -14,419 -6,481
1953 148,698 8,153 -13,582 -5,952
1954 152,313 8,220 -13,912 -8,808
1955 151,386 9,391 -14,045 -10,841
1956 151,360 9,823 -13,468 -10,321
1957 150,919 10,006 -12,841 -8,103
1958 151,852 9,809 -12,311 -10,398
1959 152,397 10,532 -12,333 -10,609
1960 149,202 9,753 -12,684 -9,671
1961 152,494 10,365 -11,593 -10,696
1962 156,212 10,972 -11,123 -8,755
1963 159,014 11,575 -10,037 -9,254
1964 162,548 12,129 -9,849 -9,715
1965 166,481 13,006 -9,232 -9,547
1966 169,967 16,070 -8,598 -7,423
1967 174,896 16,924 -8,212 -8,074
1968 176,535 18,617 -7,564 -7,675
1969 177,245 18,528 -7,358 -6,148
1970 177,350 17,698 -7,366 -5,609
1971 181,294 18,016 -7,170 -5,772
1972 186,936 20,457 -6,993 -6,233
1973 190,494 21,835 -6,955 -4,737
1974 191,827 21,902 -6,583 -2,972
1975 193,317 21,209 -6,584 -3,656
1976 193,659 22,092 -6,768 -4,155
1977 194,313 22,603 -6,809 -3,466
1978 197,134 23,382 -6,642 -3,280
1979 198,186 23,826 -6,297 -3,326
1980 203,233 23,341 -6,430 -3,928
1981 204,589 23,423 -6,367 -3,298
1982 206,951 23,812 -6,716 -3,715
1983 209,774 24,603 -7,014 -4,171
1984 212,074 26,275 -7,370 -4,029
1985 213,435 26,950 -7,795 -4,850
1986 216,140 28,551 -8,509 -5,418
1987 217,771 28,896 -8,877 -5,184
1988 219,163 29,303 -9,200 -5,484
1989 219,599 29,593 -9,553 -6,526
1990 223,297 29,434 -9,840 -5,699
1991 226,211 29,299 -10,376 -6,892
1992 230,057 29,962 -10,853 -6,865
1993 234,223 30,563 -11,352 -7,015
1994 238,127 31,579 -11,878 -6,604
1995 241,340 32,186 -12,498 -8,445
1996 245,116 32,915 -12,922 -9,573
1997 248,079 34,533 -13,568 -11,927
1998 250,339 36,175 -14,253 -14,326
1999 253,136 37,362 -14,727 -16,029
2000 253,778 37,842 -15,188 -13,351
2001 256,991 39,113 -15,866 -11,021
2002 260,414 39,405 -16,557 -11,460
2003 263,591 40,538 -17,105 -11,770
2004 266,803 41,388 -17,627 -12,066
2005 269,818 42,138 -18,158 -12,344
2006 272,291 42,648 -18,741 -12,621
2007 275,443 43,347 -19,257 -12,897
2008 278,237 43,894 -19,827 -13,178
2009 280,661 44,198 -20,448 -13,456
2010 283,359 44,553 -21,050 -13,732
2011 285,988 44,814 -21,687 -14,012
2012 288,805 45,109 -22,318 -14,294
2013 291,582 45,311 -22,985 -14,579
2014 294,471 45,509 -23,656 -14,866
2015 297,308 45,623 -24,354 -15,154
2016 300,288 45,738 -25,054 -15,440
2017 303,103 45,756 -25,796 -15,735
2018 306,170 45,819 -26,541 -16,036
2019 309,129 45,810 -27,326 -16,348
2020 312,014 45,719 -28,156 -16,676
2021 314,900 45,588 -29,014 -17,014
2022 317,834 45,424 -29,898 -17,363
2023 320,797 45,235 -30,808 -17,723
2024 323,800 45,032 -31,740 -18,092
2025 326,827 44,802 -32,700 -18,474
2026 329,888 44,566 -33,674 -18,860
2027 332,717 44,268 -34,651 -19,243
2028 335,573 43,968 -35,641 -19,630
2029 338,460 43,662 -36,651 -20,028
2030 341,358 43,341 -37,679 -20,435
2031 344,306 43,026 -38,716 -20,846
2032 347,323 42,724 -39,757 -21,260
2033 350,428 42,442 -40,798 -21,676
2034 353,585 42,164 -41,854 -22,101
2035 356,818 41,892 -42,919 -22,532
2036 360,146 41,639 -43,984 -22,966
2037 363,570 41,404 -45,052 -23,404
2038 367,105 41,191 -46,121 -23,844
2039 370,746 40,999 -47,192 -24,289
2040 374,503 40,826 -48,266 -24,738
2041 378,340 40,655 -49,349 -25,194
2042 382,283 40,506 -50,428 -25,651
2043 386,315 40,376 -51,503 -26,108
2044 390,434 40,258 -52,582 -26,571
2045 394,669 40,169 -53,654 -27,032
2046 398,998 40,089 -54,734 -27,500
2047 403,432 40,029 -55,816 -27,971
2048 407,956 39,983 -56,903 -28,447
2049 412,596 39,967 -57,985 -28,923
2050 417,268 39,960 -59,064 -29,400
2051 422,078 39,981 -60,143 -29,879
2052 427,016 40,038 -61,216 -30,357
2053 432,055 40,111 -62,299 -30,844
2054 437,227 40,226 -63,370 -31,327
2055 442,509 40,369 -64,438 -31,810
2056 447,899 40,537 -65,507 -32,295
2057 453,390 40,719 -66,584 -32,783
2058 459,009 40,920 -67,673 -33,278
2059 464,737 41,128 -68,778 -33,782
2060 470,557 41,350 -69,892 -34,291
2061 476,473 41,585 -71,013 -34,804
2062 482,506 41,851 -72,130 -35,315
2063 488,645 42,131 -73,254 -35,830
2064 494,891 42,430 -74,382 -36,346
2065 501,248 42,739 -75,523 -36,868
2066 507,702 43,073 -76,659 -37,389
2067 514,227 43,422 -77,796 -37,911
2068 520,802 43,783 -78,931 -38,431
2069 527,445 44,156 -80,067 -38,952
2070 534,192 44,541 -81,212 -39,478
2071 541,049 44,938 -82,370 -40,009
2072 547,997 45,339 -83,541 -40,547
2073 555,046 45,746 -84,728 -41,091
2074 562,197 46,157 -85,932 -41,642
2075 569,422 46,571 -87,147 -42,198
2076 576,756 46,992 -88,378 -42,760
2077 584,283 47,430 -89,636 -43,336
2078 592,024 47,889 -90,926 -43,927
2079 599,360 48,341 -92,130 -44,479
2080 607,258 48,835 -93,422 -45,073
2081 615,081 49,296 -94,724 -45,669
2082 622,998 49,762 -96,043 -46,272
2083 631,009 50,233 -97,377 -46,881
2084 639,113 50,707 -98,728 -47,498
2085 647,307 51,183 -100,096 -48,122
2086 655,595 51,663 -101,481 -48,753
2087 663,988 52,150 -102,881 -49,392
2088 672,485 52,641 -104,300 -50,038
2089 681,089 53,138 -105,736 -50,692
2090 689,802 53,641 -107,190 -51,354
2091 698,632 54,151 -108,663 -52,025
2092 707,565 54,664 -110,155 -52,703
2093 716,626 55,186 -111,666 -53,391
2094 725,803 55,714 -113,198 -54,087
2095 735,101 56,247 -114,749 -54,793
2096 744,519 56,786 -116,322 -55,508
2097 754,064 57,332 -117,916 -56,232
2098 763,737 57,885 -119,530 -56,966
2099 773,534 58,441 -121,168 -57,711
2100 783,467 59,006 -122,827 -58,464
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

The estimated lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member is displayed in Chart 6 for the balanced budget award policy and in Chart 7 for the balanced budget tax policy. Under either policy, the lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member for the collective cohort group born through 1900, evaluated as of 1937, ranges from $36,760 under the OASI trust fund interest rate assumption to $2,165 under the large company stock total rate of return series. By the 1945 single-year birth cohort, this differential increases substantially, with a range from about $123,100 for the zero real interest rate series to about -$19,800 for the trust fund interest rate series. As with the other measures, the estimated lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under a given interest rate assumption begins to diverge more noticeably between the two balanced budget policies for cohorts born after about 1950, as projected benefits and taxes begin to play a more important role. For the cohort born in 2100, the most distant cohort simulated in this analysis, the projected lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member, evaluated as of 2100, ranges from about $375,100 for the zero real interest rate series to about -$74,300 for the OASI trust fund interest rate series under the award adjustment policy (Chart 6) and ranges from about $783,500 for the zero real interest rate series to about -$122,800 for the OASI trust fund interest rate series under the tax adjustment policy (Chart 7).61

A key comparison in Charts 6 and 7 is the level of the lifetime net transfer under each policy and interest rate assumption relative to a value of zero. Under both of the balanced budget policies and all of the interest rate assumptions, the lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member for the earliest cohorts is positive, indicating lifetime benefits in excess of lifetime taxes. As with the prior measures considered, however, the question of whether present and future cohorts will continue to experience lifetime benefits in excess of lifetime taxes depends critically on the risk-adjusted interest rate deemed appropriate for the lifetime net transfer calculation.

Aggregate Lifetime Net Transfers. As noted above, the accumulated or discounted present value of lifetime benefits less taxes for each birth cohort as a whole, evaluated at a specific point in time using OASI trust fund interest rates, is a measure of the cost of those net transfers to the trust fund as of that evaluation date and can be interpreted as identifying the extent of redistribution across cohorts from the perspective of the program.62 The interest earned by the OASI trust fund reflects an internal government transaction, however, and can be viewed as a policy or managerial choice open to debate. The rates of return earned by the special Treasury obligations held by the trust fund have historically been based primarily on then current rates for marketable Treasury obligations, a conceptually appropriate basis for such interest payments.63 These rates are not necessarily appropriate, however, for the evaluation of redistributional outcomes under the program from the perspective of program participants or from the broader perspective of society in general. In a pure pay-as-you-go program, of course, there is no trust fund and consequently no trust fund interest rate. The return to contributions under the present program has primarily been generated by the growth in the payroll tax base, with a much smaller proportion of expenditures funded by the return to trust fund assets.

More generally, the issues involved in the choice of an appropriate interest rate to use in developing redistributional estimates as of a particular evaluation date mirror the issues discussed above in conjunction with the money's worth estimates presented in the previous charts. To illustrate the importance of this effect, measures of lifetime redistribution under the OASI program are developed in this analysis using the same alternative interest rate series applied to develop the money's worth estimates presented above.

The present values of aggregate lifetime net transfers (benefits less taxes) for each single-year birth cohort, evaluated as of the end of 2001 using each of the four interest rate series, are displayed in Charts 8 and 9 under the two balanced budget policies. Analogous tabular estimates are presented in Tables 1 and 2 for generally 10-year birth cohorts.64 These aggregate lifetime net transfer estimates reflect the size of each cohort group as well as the average outcome for members of that group.

Table 1. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the award adjustment policy, evaluated as of year-end 2001 using alternative interest rate assumptions, by 10-year birth cohort (in billions of dollars)
Birth cohort Interest rate assumption
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Pre–1901 1,637.203 3,912.972 4,313.035 13,676.469
1901–1910 1,701.736 2,303.540 3,900.322 6,719.672
1911–1920 2,357.449 2,250.763 3,654.831 1,964.335
1921–1930 2,352.271 1,259.806 1,123.712 -5,787.376
1931–1940 2,364.471 587.418 -493.337 -7,080.525
1941–1950 3,998.263 833.139 -1,504.711 -9,181.005
1951–1960 5,711.384 1,232.563 -1,781.017 -7,942.031
1961–1970 5,018.370 781.136 -1,305.644 -3,020.509
1971–1980 4,265.825 431.199 -1,025.572 -1,251.318
1981–1990 4,698.171 271.206 -1,087.081 -927.633
1991–2000 5,069.634 203.841 -975.594 -562.255
2001–2010 5,460.787 155.808 -847.483 -325.776
2011–2020 6,130.699 145.612 -734.038 -191.678
2021–2030 7,026.295 178.775 -613.178 -111.681
2031–2040 7,972.794 164.718 -526.148 -66.335
2041–2050 9,028.033 143.183 -452.030 -39.434
2051–2060 10,324.157 151.022 -380.821 -23.137
2061–2070 11,725.448 137.560 -325.002 -13.656
2071–2080 13,332.387 130.641 -275.819 -8.016
2081–2090 15,218.277 135.823 -232.287 -4.678
2091–2100 17,326.575 131.947 -196.804 -2.741
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table 2. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the tax adjustment policy, evaluated as of year-end 2001 using alternative interest rate assumptions, by 10-year birth cohort (in billions of dollars)
Birth cohort Interest rate assumption
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Pre–1901 1,637.203 3,912.972 4,313.035 13,676.469
1901–1910 1,701.736 2,303.540 3,900.322 6,719.672
1911–1920 2,357.443 2,250.758 3,654.827 1,964.332
1921–1930 2,352.263 1,259.792 1,123.695 -5,787.393
1931–1940 2,364.468 587.339 -493.455 -7,080.644
1941–1950 4,008.346 838.868 -1,501.456 -9,180.301
1951–1960 6,234.408 1,533.047 -1,603.422 -7,889.690
1961–1970 6,499.709 1,519.906 -935.459 -2,951.643
1971–1980 6,622.329 1,424.428 -627.558 -1,221.464
1981–1990 8,380.259 1,576.463 -691.412 -940.021
1991–2000 9,864.792 1,630.610 -667.030 -600.901
2001–2010 11,301.554 1,600.784 -646.621 -370.280
2011–2020 12,894.472 1,502.106 -650.623 -233.583
2021–2030 14,209.973 1,284.397 -650.675 -147.299
2031–2040 15,844.085 1,064.899 -646.060 -94.445
2041–2050 17,898.792 906.113 -612.521 -59.732
2051–2060 20,326.286 809.545 -553.586 -36.729
2061–2070 23,429.706 767.217 -490.938 -22.357
2071–2080 27,052.836 749.290 -428.593 -13.439
2081–2090 31,161.822 736.474 -371.196 -8.018
2091–2100 35,982.899 726.448 -321.944 -4.793
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Under either balanced budget policy, the aggregate lifetime net transfer for the collective cohort group born through 1900, evaluated as of 2001, ranges from $13,676 billion under the large company stock interest rate assumption to $1,637 billion under the zero real interest rate assumption. The aggregate lifetime net transfer under either balanced budget policy for the 1945 single-year birth cohort, evaluated as of 2001, ranges from about $346 billion for the zero real interest rate series to about -$818 billion for the large company stock series. As with the other measures, the estimated aggregate lifetime net transfer begins to diverge more noticeably across policies under a given interest rate assumption for cohorts born after about 1950. The projected aggregate lifetime net transfer for the single-year cohort born in 2100, discounted to 2001, ranges from about $1,836 billion for the zero real interest rate series to about -$18 billion for the OASI trust fund interest rate series under the award adjustment policy (Chart 8) and ranges from about $3,834 billion for the zero real interest rate series to about -$30 billion for the OASI trust fund interest rate series under the tax adjustment policy (Chart 9).

Chart 8.
Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 8. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789
1902 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360
1903 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657
1904 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208
1905 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935
1906 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963
1907 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784
1908 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590
1909 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861
1910 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524
1911 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565
1912 223.759 244.892 428.995 515.688
1913 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109
1914 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614
1915 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400
1916 252.141 242.387 387.148 206.414
1917 243.594 222.256 347.606 81.261
1918 242.391 204.684 313.232 -78.107
1919 223.951 175.974 257.809 -170.316
1920 237.470 177.264 244.360 -271.293
1921 243.131 168.536 219.184 -382.817
1922 237.391 156.973 189.166 -430.817
1923 236.922 147.483 164.289 -492.441
1924 241.870 140.812 143.702 -562.014
1925 241.931 135.855 125.245 -580.545
1926 235.826 122.057 99.138 -622.992
1927 239.840 116.848 81.136 -658.250
1928 231.132 101.455 54.966 -680.974
1929 220.996 87.496 30.829 -680.948
1930 223.231 82.290 16.057 -695.577
1931 219.578 76.388 3.724 -676.328
1932 220.513 72.533 -6.483 -673.996
1933 208.656 56.212 -28.389 -682.238
1934 217.890 57.297 -34.574 -685.436
1935 220.653 48.187 -53.546 -717.157
1936 224.569 45.385 -64.081 -715.966
1937 251.183 62.916 -56.049 -697.328
1938 257.923 54.481 -78.193 -745.370
1939 266.580 57.161 -82.126 -735.059
1940 276.925 56.859 -93.620 -751.647
1941 291.359 58.778 -103.076 -772.634
1942 314.998 47.807 -141.712 -900.348
1943 336.935 56.246 -146.454 -911.225
1944 342.681 70.727 -129.090 -832.105
1945 346.362 72.085 -132.314 -818.393
1946 415.419 84.284 -164.785 -973.058
1947 469.417 93.084 -191.653 -1,082.406
1948 473.073 104.869 -172.972 -997.963
1949 495.299 119.120 -162.385 -957.252
1950 512.720 126.138 -160.271 -935.621
1951 528.705 124.572 -172.515 -949.513
1952 551.532 129.858 -176.215 -940.389
1953 571.512 138.171 -171.097 -900.774
1954 589.483 138.927 -177.668 -889.422
1955 585.898 131.435 -181.998 -849.594
1956 591.348 128.525 -183.213 -801.780
1957 589.478 123.612 -181.855 -739.648
1958 582.440 118.479 -176.425 -673.568
1959 570.165 107.858 -176.953 -620.582
1960 550.821 91.126 -183.079 -576.762
1961 552.694 93.948 -168.974 -505.934
1962 545.592 90.374 -160.692 -451.227
1963 537.134 90.259 -146.546 -389.367
1964 522.670 83.892 -140.345 -345.060
1965 498.396 78.974 -127.570 -291.937
1966 479.268 74.723 -117.779 -250.640
1967 470.438 71.535 -112.131 -220.580
1968 467.151 69.950 -107.679 -198.227
1969 471.911 66.367 -110.283 -188.852
1970 473.115 61.114 -113.645 -178.683
1971 458.898 58.459 -107.615 -160.498
1972 433.215 54.957 -98.620 -140.203
1973 416.566 49.330 -96.833 -130.372
1974 413.541 46.209 -97.276 -125.008
1975 410.515 43.016 -97.836 -120.011
1976 410.897 39.734 -99.881 -117.161
1977 416.759 37.274 -102.778 -115.385
1978 422.920 36.345 -103.741 -113.121
1979 435.224 34.983 -107.300 -113.699
1980 447.289 30.891 -113.691 -115.861
1981 450.445 29.864 -113.124 -112.558
1982 454.029 28.798 -112.631 -109.055
1983 452.199 28.493 -109.350 -102.492
1984 456.509 28.487 -107.683 -97.195
1985 463.672 27.816 -107.674 -93.234
1986 467.153 27.034 -106.701 -88.916
1987 472.156 26.165 -106.246 -85.121
1988 481.580 25.729 -106.466 -81.917
1989 494.807 24.749 -108.277 -79.952
1990 505.621 24.070 -108.929 -77.194
1991 507.327 22.999 -107.559 -73.261
1992 505.596 22.583 -104.612 -68.511
1993 503.040 22.194 -101.537 -64.011
1994 501.707 21.617 -99.027 -60.020
1995 498.948 20.338 -96.938 -56.331
1996 501.319 20.076 -95.097 -53.105
1997 505.269 19.575 -93.876 -50.324
1998 508.826 18.775 -92.854 -47.735
1999 511.665 18.381 -91.307 -45.084
2000 525.937 17.303 -92.787 -43.873
2001 527.721 16.822 -91.069 -41.361
2002 530.599 16.655 -89.322 -39.010
2003 533.676 16.387 -87.720 -36.825
2004 537.573 16.203 -86.223 -34.803
2005 541.750 15.874 -84.898 -32.927
2006 545.294 15.144 -83.808 -31.199
2007 551.344 15.043 -82.634 -29.583
2008 557.903 14.899 -81.566 -28.079
2009 563.914 14.460 -80.629 -26.666
2010 571.012 14.322 -79.614 -25.324
2011 577.975 14.118 -78.610 -24.048
2012 585.398 14.089 -77.531 -22.828
2013 593.450 14.236 -76.387 -21.658
2014 602.374 14.652 -75.158 -20.541
2015 608.404 14.295 -74.084 -19.479
2016 616.279 14.446 -72.878 -18.461
2017 623.702 14.469 -71.698 -17.495
2018 632.512 14.836 -70.449 -16.577
2019 641.915 15.336 -69.177 -15.705
2020 648.690 15.137 -68.064 -14.886
2021 657.656 15.527 -66.812 -14.099
2022 667.394 16.131 -65.507 -13.348
2023 677.509 16.839 -64.178 -12.632
2024 687.590 17.542 -62.851 -11.951
2025 697.489 18.155 -61.569 -11.309
2026 707.219 18.709 -60.310 -10.698
2027 717.812 18.946 -59.336 -10.155
2028 728.097 19.064 -58.401 -9.639
2029 738.024 19.029 -57.521 -9.154
2030 747.505 18.832 -56.694 -8.696
2031 756.805 18.548 -55.899 -8.262
2032 765.470 18.088 -55.144 -7.849
2033 774.226 17.622 -54.398 -7.457
2034 783.012 17.122 -53.674 -7.086
2035 791.892 16.610 -52.964 -6.734
2036 801.005 16.131 -52.252 -6.399
2037 810.343 15.686 -51.539 -6.080
2038 819.973 15.290 -50.820 -5.775
2039 829.905 14.950 -50.094 -5.485
2040 840.162 14.669 -49.362 -5.208
2041 850.669 14.430 -48.628 -4.945
2042 861.484 14.263 -47.879 -4.693
2043 872.578 14.165 -47.117 -4.453
2044 883.938 14.115 -46.352 -4.224
2045 895.684 14.143 -45.576 -4.005
2046 907.696 14.199 -44.807 -3.797
2047 919.982 14.287 -44.043 -3.600
2048 932.503 14.391 -43.289 -3.414
2049 945.300 14.525 -42.540 -3.236
2050 958.198 14.664 -41.799 -3.067
2051 971.327 14.806 -41.072 -2.907
2052 984.654 14.949 -40.357 -2.755
2053 998.077 15.059 -39.665 -2.612
2054 1,011.664 15.165 -38.984 -2.476
2055 1,025.378 15.252 -38.320 -2.347
2056 1,039.106 15.295 -37.676 -2.225
2057 1,052.838 15.283 -37.056 -2.110
2058 1,066.605 15.215 -36.461 -2.002
2059 1,080.379 15.087 -35.891 -1.899
2060 1,094.129 14.911 -35.340 -1.802
2061 1,107.918 14.702 -34.803 -1.710
2062 1,121.805 14.481 -34.275 -1.623
2063 1,135.799 14.245 -33.757 -1.540
2064 1,149.970 14.010 -33.246 -1.462
2065 1,164.326 13.771 -32.744 -1.387
2066 1,178.966 13.567 -32.241 -1.316
2067 1,193.800 13.386 -31.739 -1.248
2068 1,208.866 13.239 -31.235 -1.184
2069 1,224.182 13.123 -30.732 -1.122
2070 1,239.816 13.035 -30.231 -1.064
2071 1,255.816 12.978 -29.734 -1.009
2072 1,272.094 12.938 -29.243 -0.956
2073 1,288.647 12.913 -28.756 -0.906
2074 1,305.724 12.929 -28.274 -0.859
2075 1,323.197 12.979 -27.795 -0.814
2076 1,340.816 13.020 -27.325 -0.771
2077 1,358.958 13.076 -26.864 -0.731
2078 1,377.546 13.130 -26.417 -0.693
2079 1,395.753 13.263 -25.944 -0.656
2080 1,413.836 13.415 -25.467 -0.621
2081 1,432.843 13.483 -25.033 -0.589
2082 1,452.130 13.546 -24.608 -0.558
2083 1,471.536 13.586 -24.193 -0.529
2084 1,491.383 13.639 -23.785 -0.501
2085 1,511.464 13.682 -23.386 -0.475
2086 1,531.287 13.660 -23.000 -0.450
2087 1,551.346 13.631 -22.620 -0.427
2088 1,571.575 13.586 -22.249 -0.404
2089 1,592.011 13.533 -21.885 -0.383
2090 1,612.701 13.476 -21.528 -0.363
2091 1,633.625 13.414 -21.176 -0.345
2092 1,654.805 13.351 -20.831 -0.327
2093 1,676.294 13.292 -20.491 -0.310
2094 1,698.078 13.236 -20.156 -0.294
2095 1,720.170 13.187 -19.826 -0.278
2096 1,742.582 13.144 -19.500 -0.264
2097 1,765.290 13.107 -19.178 -0.250
2098 1,788.384 13.085 -18.861 -0.237
2099 1,811.795 13.069 -18.547 -0.225
2100 1,835.552 13.062 -18.238 -0.213
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Chart 9.
Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 9. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789
1902 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360
1903 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657
1904 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208
1905 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935
1906 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963
1907 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784
1908 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590
1909 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861
1910 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524
1911 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565
1912 223.758 244.892 428.995 515.688
1913 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109
1914 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614
1915 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400
1916 252.140 242.386 387.148 206.414
1917 243.593 222.255 347.605 81.261
1918 242.390 204.683 313.231 -78.108
1919 223.950 175.973 257.808 -170.316
1920 237.468 177.263 244.359 -271.294
1921 243.129 168.535 219.183 -382.818
1922 237.389 156.971 189.164 -430.819
1923 236.920 147.481 164.287 -492.442
1924 241.867 140.810 143.700 -562.016
1925 241.929 135.853 125.243 -580.546
1926 235.825 122.056 99.136 -622.994
1927 239.839 116.846 81.134 -658.252
1928 231.133 101.454 54.964 -680.976
1929 220.997 87.495 30.828 -680.950
1930 223.233 82.290 16.055 -695.580
1931 219.582 76.388 3.722 -676.331
1932 220.518 72.534 -6.485 -673.999
1933 208.662 56.213 -28.392 -682.243
1934 217.896 57.297 -34.578 -685.442
1935 220.657 48.184 -53.553 -717.165
1936 224.573 45.381 -64.090 -715.976
1937 251.186 62.909 -56.061 -697.341
1938 257.922 54.469 -78.210 -745.387
1939 266.573 57.141 -82.150 -735.081
1940 276.898 56.823 -93.658 -751.679
1941 291.312 58.725 -103.131 -772.675
1942 314.923 47.728 -141.789 -900.405
1943 336.829 56.140 -146.556 -911.298
1944 342.539 70.591 -129.215 -832.191
1945 346.290 71.991 -132.414 -818.471
1946 415.501 84.271 -164.844 -973.135
1947 469.750 93.207 -191.642 -1,082.475
1948 473.723 105.172 -172.858 -998.009
1949 498.200 120.861 -161.316 -956.923
1950 519.277 130.183 -157.691 -934.719
1951 539.734 131.359 -168.194 -948.002
1952 568.341 140.127 -169.729 -938.157
1953 597.590 154.023 -161.128 -897.361
1954 625.728 160.733 -164.105 -884.893
1955 631.822 158.696 -165.294 -844.219
1956 647.859 161.588 -163.282 -795.625
1957 656.410 162.178 -159.009 -732.904
1958 659.318 162.088 -151.052 -666.422
1959 658.099 156.945 -148.912 -613.065
1960 649.508 145.311 -152.717 -569.042
1961 662.196 153.128 -136.415 -498.062
1962 665.151 153.964 -126.353 -443.349
1963 666.056 157.738 -110.787 -381.593
1964 660.279 154.765 -103.496 -337.484
1965 640.784 151.096 -90.816 -284.826
1966 627.075 148.374 -80.981 -243.943
1967 626.810 148.152 -74.640 -214.205
1968 633.160 149.943 -69.342 -192.146
1969 651.662 151.548 -70.314 -182.959
1970 666.536 151.198 -72.315 -173.077
1971 657.580 149.446 -66.782 -155.405
1972 631.091 144.047 -59.537 -135.756
1973 618.179 138.551 -58.607 -126.452
1974 624.611 138.053 -58.836 -121.476
1975 631.366 137.467 -59.268 -116.892
1976 643.778 137.629 -60.893 -114.432
1977 664.848 139.803 -62.959 -113.016
1978 685.012 142.813 -63.454 -111.156
1979 716.062 147.125 -65.974 -112.122
1980 749.803 149.494 -71.248 -114.757
1981 765.285 151.183 -70.898 -111.903
1982 781.221 152.704 -70.715 -108.848
1983 785.712 152.569 -68.609 -102.738
1984 800.829 154.343 -67.587 -97.870
1985 822.026 156.481 -67.945 -94.343
1986 836.610 157.359 -67.701 -90.414
1987 854.200 158.569 -67.865 -86.991
1988 879.541 161.235 -68.442 -84.158
1989 912.984 164.618 -70.320 -82.581
1990 941.851 167.403 -71.330 -80.174
1991 953.776 167.102 -71.034 -76.506
1992 958.118 166.116 -69.450 -71.945
1993 960.164 164.665 -67.828 -67.593
1994 964.774 163.402 -66.661 -63.738
1995 967.517 161.225 -65.968 -60.173
1996 979.021 161.194 -65.199 -57.054
1997 994.132 161.440 -64.944 -54.385
1998 1,008.545 161.167 -64.963 -51.902
1999 1,020.928 160.908 -64.491 -49.315
2000 1,057.816 163.391 -66.491 -48.291
2001 1,068.153 162.571 -65.945 -45.806
2002 1,079.998 162.158 -65.313 -43.467
2003 1,091.816 161.479 -64.871 -41.290
2004 1,105.241 161.055 -64.477 -39.270
2005 1,119.361 160.487 -64.265 -37.392
2006 1,132.803 159.400 -64.321 -35.663
2007 1,150.416 159.368 -64.169 -34.035
2008 1,167.717 158.925 -64.223 -32.522
2009 1,184.192 157.998 -64.452 -31.099
2010 1,201.856 157.343 -64.584 -29.737
2011 1,218.816 156.386 -64.763 -28.437
2012 1,236.003 155.503 -64.854 -27.184
2013 1,252.273 154.295 -64.974 -25.980
2014 1,268.342 153.047 -65.037 -24.823
2015 1,283.544 151.540 -65.105 -23.711
2016 1,298.855 150.037 -65.120 -22.641
2017 1,312.949 148.178 -65.175 -21.619
2018 1,327.705 146.455 -65.169 -20.644
2019 1,341.533 144.457 -65.191 -19.714
2020 1,354.450 142.208 -65.234 -18.829
2021 1,366.671 139.813 -65.250 -17.978
2022 1,378.385 137.329 -65.230 -17.160
2023 1,389.537 134.748 -65.179 -16.376
2024 1,400.316 132.113 -65.091 -15.623
2025 1,411.041 129.441 -64.999 -14.907
2026 1,421.771 126.783 -64.870 -14.221
2027 1,436.940 124.469 -64.944 -13.609
2028 1,452.433 122.179 -64.994 -13.023
2029 1,468.326 119.900 -65.040 -12.466
2030 1,484.554 117.623 -65.078 -11.935
2031 1,501.281 115.401 -65.091 -11.426
2032 1,518.536 113.251 -65.069 -10.937
2033 1,536.350 111.190 -65.007 -10.467
2034 1,554.534 109.155 -64.929 -10.017
2035 1,573.161 107.171 -64.823 -9.587
2036 1,592.255 105.268 -64.677 -9.172
2037 1,611.759 103.433 -64.493 -8.772
2038 1,631.692 101.676 -64.268 -8.388
2039 1,651.961 99.987 -64.003 -8.017
2040 1,672.556 98.366 -63.699 -7.661
2041 1,693.273 96.772 -63.366 -7.319
2042 1,714.188 95.248 -62.986 -6.988
2043 1,735.212 93.785 -62.561 -6.669
2044 1,756.356 92.363 -62.105 -6.363
2045 1,777.799 91.027 -61.608 -6.067
2046 1,799.508 89.733 -61.093 -5.785
2047 1,821.577 88.501 -60.554 -5.514
2048 1,843.988 87.317 -60.000 -5.254
2049 1,866.905 86.215 -59.422 -5.006
2050 1,889.987 85.152 -58.825 -4.768
2051 1,913.759 84.171 -58.216 -4.540
2052 1,938.226 83.282 -57.591 -4.323
2053 1,963.303 82.440 -56.966 -4.115
2054 1,989.184 81.700 -56.325 -3.917
2055 2,015.811 81.033 -55.678 -3.728
2056 2,043.201 80.429 -55.030 -3.548
2057 2,071.350 79.867 -54.386 -3.376
2058 2,100.399 79.352 -53.752 -3.213
2059 2,130.249 78.863 -53.130 -3.058
2060 2,160.806 78.407 -52.512 -2.911
2061 2,192.055 77.987 -51.897 -2.771
2062 2,224.074 77.627 -51.276 -2.637
2063 2,256.758 77.299 -50.657 -2.509
2064 2,290.076 77.007 -50.037 -2.387
2065 2,324.009 76.733 -49.420 -2.271
2066 2,358.448 76.503 -48.796 -2.160
2067 2,393.232 76.293 -48.168 -2.053
2068 2,428.243 76.098 -47.533 -1.952
2069 2,463.539 75.918 -46.895 -1.855
2070 2,499.271 75.752 -46.259 -1.763
2071 2,535.467 75.598 -45.625 -1.675
2072 2,572.033 75.443 -44.997 -1.592
2073 2,609.019 75.289 -44.373 -1.512
2074 2,646.463 75.134 -43.756 -1.436
2075 2,684.242 74.978 -43.143 -1.364
2076 2,722.539 74.827 -42.536 -1.296
2077 2,761.795 74.695 -41.942 -1.231
2078 2,802.133 74.583 -41.361 -1.169
2079 2,840.656 74.453 -40.743 -1.110
2080 2,878.489 74.290 -40.116 -1.053
2081 2,919.546 74.163 -39.545 -1.000
2082 2,961.308 74.040 -38.983 -0.950
2083 3,003.794 73.922 -38.429 -0.902
2084 3,047.001 73.806 -37.885 -0.857
2085 3,090.928 73.691 -37.350 -0.814
2086 3,135.571 73.578 -36.823 -0.773
2087 3,180.976 73.471 -36.304 -0.734
2088 3,227.119 73.367 -35.793 -0.697
2089 3,273.994 73.266 -35.290 -0.662
2090 3,321.584 73.168 -34.793 -0.629
2091 3,369.910 73.074 -34.302 -0.598
2092 3,418.880 72.977 -33.819 -0.568
2093 3,468.589 72.885 -33.341 -0.539
2094 3,518.947 72.791 -32.870 -0.512
2095 3,569.961 72.698 -32.403 -0.487
2096 3,621.590 72.601 -31.943 -0.462
2097 3,673.843 72.505 -31.487 -0.439
2098 3,726.705 72.408 -31.036 -0.417
2099 3,780.169 72.305 -30.591 -0.396
2100 3,834.306 72.204 -30.151 -0.376
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

A key comparison in Charts 8 and 9 and Tables 1 and 2 is the level of the lifetime net transfer under each policy and interest rate assumption relative to zero. Under either of the balanced budget policies, aggregate lifetime net transfers for the earliest cohorts are positive for all of the interest rate assumptions; the question of whether present and future cohorts will continue to experience positive lifetime net transfers again depends critically on the risk-adjusted interest rate used in the calculation.65

Lifetime Net Transfer/Taxable Earnings Rate. Another money's worth measure of interest is the present value of lifetime net transfers (benefits less taxes) relative to the present value of lifetime taxable earnings under the program.66 If negative (positive) for a particular cohort, this measure can be interpreted as the implicit lifetime tax (subsidy) rate experienced by that cohort under the program.

Estimates for the lifetime net transfer/taxable earnings rate under the two balanced budget policies are displayed in Charts 10 and 11. The general intercohort pattern and implications of this measure are analogous to those for the lifetime benefit/tax ratio, which is also a relative measure. Under either balanced budget policy, the lifetime net transfer/taxable earnings rate for the collective cohort group born through 1900 ranges from 35.3 percent under the OASI trust fund interest rate assumption to 5.1 percent under the large company stock interest rate assumption, a significant subsidy under all of the interest rate assumptions. The net transfer/taxable earnings rate generally declines across subsequent cohorts so that by the 1945 single-year birth cohort the rate ranges from about 12.5 percent for the zero real interest rate series, representing a net subsidy, to about -6.8 percent for the large company stock series, representing a net tax. The net transfer/taxable earnings rate begins to diverge more noticeably across policies for subsequent cohorts under each interest rate assumption. For the most distant projected single-year birth cohort, born in 2100, the projected lifetime net transfer/taxable earnings rate ranges from about 6.2 percent for the zero real interest rate series to about -8.4 percent for the large company stock interest rate series under the award adjustment policy (Chart 10) and ranges from about 12.9 percent for the zero real interest rate series to about -14.9 percent for the large company stock series under the tax adjustment policy (Chart 11).

As in Charts 6 through 9, a key comparison in Charts 10 and 11 is the level of the lifetime net transfer/taxable earnings rate relative to zero. Again, the lifetime net transfer/taxable earnings rate is positive for the earliest cohorts under either of the balanced budget policies for all of the interest rate assumptions, but the question of whether present and future cohorts will continue to experience positive lifetime subsidies depends critically on the risk-adjusted interest rate used in the calculation.

Chart 10.
Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 10. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 12.46 1.51 -2.05 -6.13
1941 12.46 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 11.57 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 11.83 1.27 -2.67 -6.62
1944 12.52 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 12.48 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 12.22 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 12.71 2.08 -2.77 -7.13
1949 13.16 2.41 -2.66 -7.16
1950 13.29 2.55 -2.65 -7.23
1951 13.00 2.44 -2.78 -7.33
1952 12.95 2.49 -2.81 -7.38
1953 13.05 2.65 -2.76 -7.37
1954 12.82 2.60 -2.82 -7.41
1955 12.38 2.45 -2.92 -7.42
1956 12.07 2.37 -2.96 -7.37
1957 11.71 2.28 -2.99 -7.26
1958 11.44 2.21 -3.00 -7.20
1959 10.96 2.02 -3.07 -7.14
1960 10.34 1.70 -3.23 -7.12
1961 10.32 1.79 -3.12 -6.96
1962 10.16 1.75 -3.10 -6.89
1963 10.09 1.81 -3.00 -6.75
1964 9.87 1.73 -3.01 -6.64
1965 9.71 1.72 -2.95 -6.46
1966 9.56 1.70 -2.91 -6.28
1967 9.33 1.65 -2.88 -6.12
1968 9.19 1.63 -2.86 -6.02
1969 8.94 1.52 -2.92 -6.02
1970 8.63 1.37 -3.00 -5.99
1971 8.53 1.37 -3.01 -6.01
1972 8.44 1.37 -3.01 -6.04
1973 8.21 1.27 -3.10 -6.16
1974 8.04 1.19 -3.17 -6.28
1975 7.84 1.11 -3.24 -6.40
1976 7.64 1.02 -3.33 -6.54
1977 7.47 0.94 -3.41 -6.65
1978 7.37 0.90 -3.46 -6.82
1979 7.24 0.84 -3.53 -7.01
1980 7.01 0.71 -3.63 -7.20
1981 6.94 0.69 -3.67 -7.35
1982 6.87 0.66 -3.71 -7.49
1983 6.84 0.67 -3.72 -7.55
1984 6.81 0.67 -3.72 -7.57
1985 6.75 0.64 -3.75 -7.60
1986 6.71 0.63 -3.78 -7.65
1987 6.66 0.60 -3.81 -7.70
1988 6.62 0.59 -3.83 -7.72
1989 6.55 0.55 -3.86 -7.76
1990 6.50 0.53 -3.89 -7.78
1991 6.46 0.51 -3.92 -7.82
1992 6.44 0.51 -3.93 -7.82
1993 6.43 0.51 -3.94 -7.84
1994 6.40 0.50 -3.96 -7.86
1995 6.35 0.48 -3.99 -7.87
1996 6.33 0.47 -4.00 -7.87
1997 6.30 0.46 -4.02 -7.88
1998 6.26 0.44 -4.04 -7.88
1999 6.23 0.43 -4.05 -7.88
2000 6.16 0.40 -4.08 -7.88
2001 6.13 0.39 -4.09 -7.88
2002 6.11 0.39 -4.10 -7.88
2003 6.09 0.38 -4.11 -7.88
2004 6.07 0.38 -4.12 -7.88
2005 6.04 0.37 -4.13 -7.88
2006 6.00 0.36 -4.14 -7.88
2007 5.98 0.35 -4.15 -7.88
2008 5.96 0.35 -4.16 -7.88
2009 5.94 0.34 -4.17 -7.88
2010 5.92 0.34 -4.18 -7.88
2011 5.90 0.33 -4.19 -7.88
2012 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2013 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2014 5.90 0.34 -4.20 -7.89
2015 5.88 0.33 -4.21 -7.89
2016 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2017 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2018 5.89 0.35 -4.22 -7.91
2019 5.91 0.36 -4.22 -7.91
2020 5.91 0.36 -4.23 -7.93
2021 5.92 0.36 -4.23 -7.94
2022 5.95 0.38 -4.23 -7.95
2023 5.98 0.40 -4.23 -7.96
2024 6.01 0.42 -4.22 -7.97
2025 6.04 0.43 -4.22 -7.98
2026 6.06 0.45 -4.22 -7.99
2027 6.07 0.45 -4.22 -8.00
2028 6.08 0.45 -4.22 -8.01
2029 6.08 0.45 -4.23 -8.03
2030 6.08 0.45 -4.24 -8.04
2031 6.07 0.44 -4.25 -8.06
2032 6.06 0.43 -4.26 -8.07
2033 6.05 0.42 -4.27 -8.08
2034 6.04 0.41 -4.28 -8.10
2035 6.02 0.39 -4.29 -8.11
2036 6.01 0.38 -4.31 -8.13
2037 6.00 0.37 -4.32 -8.14
2038 5.99 0.36 -4.33 -8.16
2039 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.17
2040 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.18
2041 5.98 0.34 -4.35 -8.19
2042 5.98 0.34 -4.36 -8.20
2043 5.98 0.33 -4.36 -8.21
2044 5.98 0.33 -4.37 -8.22
2045 5.99 0.33 -4.37 -8.23
2046 6.00 0.34 -4.37 -8.24
2047 6.01 0.34 -4.38 -8.25
2048 6.02 0.34 -4.38 -8.26
2049 6.03 0.34 -4.38 -8.27
2050 6.04 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2051 6.05 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2052 6.06 0.36 -4.38 -8.29
2053 6.07 0.36 -4.39 -8.30
2054 6.08 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2055 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2056 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.32
2057 6.10 0.36 -4.39 -8.33
2058 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.33
2059 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.34
2060 6.10 0.35 -4.41 -8.35
2061 6.10 0.35 -4.42 -8.36
2062 6.09 0.34 -4.42 -8.37
2063 6.09 0.34 -4.43 -8.37
2064 6.08 0.33 -4.43 -8.38
2065 6.08 0.33 -4.44 -8.38
2066 6.08 0.32 -4.44 -8.39
2067 6.07 0.32 -4.45 -8.39
2068 6.07 0.31 -4.45 -8.40
2069 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2070 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2071 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2072 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2073 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2074 6.08 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2075 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2076 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2077 6.10 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2078 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2079 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2080 6.12 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2081 6.13 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2082 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2083 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2084 6.15 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2085 6.15 0.33 -4.47 -8.42
2086 6.16 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2087 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2088 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2089 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2090 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2091 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2092 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2093 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2094 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2095 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2096 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2097 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2098 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2099 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2100 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Chart 11.
Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 11. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 12.46 1.51 -2.06 -6.13
1941 12.45 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 11.56 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 11.83 1.26 -2.67 -6.62
1944 12.51 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 12.47 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 12.23 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 12.73 2.09 -2.77 -7.13
1949 13.24 2.44 -2.65 -7.16
1950 13.46 2.63 -2.61 -7.23
1951 13.27 2.58 -2.71 -7.32
1952 13.34 2.69 -2.71 -7.36
1953 13.64 2.96 -2.60 -7.35
1954 13.61 3.01 -2.61 -7.37
1955 13.35 2.96 -2.65 -7.37
1956 13.23 2.98 -2.64 -7.32
1957 13.04 2.99 -2.61 -7.19
1958 12.95 3.03 -2.57 -7.12
1959 12.65 2.94 -2.59 -7.06
1960 12.19 2.71 -2.70 -7.03
1961 12.37 2.92 -2.52 -6.85
1962 12.38 2.99 -2.44 -6.77
1963 12.51 3.17 -2.27 -6.61
1964 12.47 3.19 -2.22 -6.50
1965 12.49 3.28 -2.10 -6.30
1966 12.51 3.37 -2.00 -6.11
1967 12.44 3.42 -1.92 -5.94
1968 12.45 3.50 -1.84 -5.84
1969 12.35 3.47 -1.86 -5.83
1970 12.15 3.40 -1.91 -5.80
1971 12.22 3.49 -1.87 -5.82
1972 12.30 3.60 -1.82 -5.85
1973 12.19 3.57 -1.88 -5.98
1974 12.14 3.57 -1.92 -6.10
1975 12.06 3.56 -1.96 -6.23
1976 11.98 3.53 -2.03 -6.39
1977 11.92 3.51 -2.09 -6.51
1978 11.93 3.54 -2.12 -6.70
1979 11.92 3.54 -2.17 -6.91
1980 11.74 3.45 -2.28 -7.13
1981 11.79 3.48 -2.30 -7.31
1982 11.82 3.51 -2.33 -7.47
1983 11.89 3.56 -2.33 -7.57
1984 11.95 3.61 -2.34 -7.62
1985 11.97 3.62 -2.36 -7.69
1986 12.01 3.65 -2.40 -7.78
1987 12.05 3.66 -2.43 -7.87
1988 12.08 3.68 -2.46 -7.93
1989 12.09 3.67 -2.51 -8.01
1990 12.11 3.68 -2.55 -8.08
1991 12.14 3.69 -2.59 -8.16
1992 12.21 3.72 -2.61 -8.22
1993 12.27 3.75 -2.63 -8.28
1994 12.31 3.77 -2.67 -8.34
1995 12.32 3.77 -2.71 -8.41
1996 12.37 3.79 -2.74 -8.46
1997 12.40 3.80 -2.78 -8.51
1998 12.40 3.79 -2.82 -8.57
1999 12.43 3.80 -2.86 -8.62
2000 12.39 3.77 -2.92 -8.68
2001 12.41 3.77 -2.96 -8.73
2002 12.44 3.78 -3.00 -8.78
2003 12.45 3.78 -3.04 -8.84
2004 12.47 3.78 -3.08 -8.89
2005 12.48 3.77 -3.12 -8.95
2006 12.46 3.75 -3.18 -9.01
2007 12.48 3.75 -3.22 -9.06
2008 12.48 3.73 -3.28 -9.12
2009 12.46 3.70 -3.33 -9.19
2010 12.46 3.68 -3.39 -9.25
2011 12.45 3.66 -3.45 -9.32
2012 12.44 3.63 -3.51 -9.39
2013 12.43 3.60 -3.57 -9.46
2014 12.42 3.57 -3.64 -9.53
2015 12.41 3.54 -3.70 -9.61
2016 12.40 3.50 -3.77 -9.68
2017 12.38 3.46 -3.84 -9.76
2018 12.37 3.43 -3.91 -9.85
2019 12.36 3.38 -3.98 -9.93
2020 12.33 3.34 -4.05 -10.03
2021 12.31 3.29 -4.13 -10.12
2022 12.29 3.24 -4.21 -10.22
2023 12.26 3.18 -4.29 -10.32
2024 12.24 3.13 -4.37 -10.42
2025 12.21 3.08 -4.46 -10.52
2026 12.18 3.02 -4.54 -10.62
2027 12.16 2.97 -4.62 -10.73
2028 12.13 2.91 -4.70 -10.83
2029 12.10 2.86 -4.78 -10.93
2030 12.08 2.80 -4.86 -11.04
2031 12.05 2.75 -4.95 -11.14
2032 12.03 2.69 -5.03 -11.25
2033 12.00 2.64 -5.10 -11.35
2034 11.98 2.59 -5.18 -11.45
2035 11.96 2.54 -5.26 -11.55
2036 11.95 2.50 -5.33 -11.65
2037 11.93 2.45 -5.40 -11.75
2038 11.92 2.41 -5.47 -11.85
2039 11.91 2.36 -5.54 -11.94
2040 11.90 2.33 -5.61 -12.03
2041 11.90 2.29 -5.67 -12.13
2042 11.89 2.25 -5.73 -12.22
2043 11.89 2.22 -5.79 -12.30
2044 11.89 2.18 -5.85 -12.39
2045 11.89 2.15 -5.91 -12.47
2046 11.89 2.12 -5.96 -12.56
2047 11.89 2.10 -6.02 -12.64
2048 11.90 2.07 -6.07 -12.72
2049 11.90 2.04 -6.12 -12.79
2050 11.91 2.02 -6.17 -12.87
2051 11.92 2.00 -6.21 -12.94
2052 11.93 1.98 -6.26 -13.01
2053 11.94 1.96 -6.30 -13.08
2054 11.95 1.94 -6.34 -13.14
2055 11.97 1.93 -6.38 -13.20
2056 11.98 1.91 -6.41 -13.26
2057 12.00 1.90 -6.45 -13.32
2058 12.01 1.89 -6.48 -13.38
2059 12.03 1.88 -6.52 -13.43
2060 12.04 1.87 -6.55 -13.49
2061 12.06 1.85 -6.58 -13.54
2062 12.08 1.85 -6.61 -13.59
2063 12.10 1.84 -6.64 -13.64
2064 12.12 1.83 -6.67 -13.68
2065 12.13 1.82 -6.70 -13.73
2066 12.15 1.81 -6.72 -13.77
2067 12.18 1.81 -6.75 -13.81
2068 12.20 1.80 -6.77 -13.85
2069 12.22 1.80 -6.80 -13.89
2070 12.24 1.80 -6.82 -13.93
2071 12.26 1.79 -6.84 -13.96
2072 12.29 1.79 -6.87 -14.00
2073 12.31 1.78 -6.89 -14.03
2074 12.33 1.78 -6.91 -14.07
2075 12.35 1.78 -6.93 -14.10
2076 12.38 1.77 -6.96 -14.14
2077 12.40 1.77 -6.98 -14.17
2078 12.42 1.77 -7.00 -14.21
2079 12.45 1.77 -7.02 -14.24
2080 12.47 1.77 -7.04 -14.27
2081 12.49 1.76 -7.06 -14.31
2082 12.51 1.76 -7.08 -14.34
2083 12.54 1.76 -7.10 -14.37
2084 12.56 1.75 -7.12 -14.40
2085 12.58 1.75 -7.14 -14.44
2086 12.60 1.75 -7.16 -14.47
2087 12.63 1.75 -7.18 -14.50
2088 12.65 1.74 -7.20 -14.53
2089 12.67 1.74 -7.22 -14.56
2090 12.69 1.74 -7.24 -14.60
2091 12.72 1.74 -7.26 -14.63
2092 12.74 1.73 -7.28 -14.66
2093 12.76 1.73 -7.30 -14.69
2094 12.78 1.73 -7.32 -14.72
2095 12.80 1.73 -7.34 -14.75
2096 12.83 1.72 -7.36 -14.78
2097 12.85 1.72 -7.38 -14.82
2098 12.87 1.72 -7.40 -14.85
2099 12.89 1.72 -7.42 -14.88
2100 12.92 1.71 -7.44 -14.91
 
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Legacy Debt Calculations. Some studies have used estimates of aggregate net transfers by cohort based on the OASI trust fund interest rate, analogous to the estimates presented in the third data column of Tables 1 and 2, to identify the accumulated sum of aggregate net transfers under the program to past and present cohorts.67 This accumulated sum has been referred to as the "legacy debt" associated with the OASI program, with the implication that lifetime net transfers for future cohorts under the program must necessarily be negative because of the positive net transfers experienced by past and present cohorts. Some analysts have suggested that a portion of this legacy debt be repaid as part of OASI reform.

The relevance of such legacy debt measures would be clear in an abstract world where interest rates and economic growth rates were known with certainty. Under these abstract conditions, the present value of aggregate net transfers across all past, present, and future cohorts in a pure pay-as-you-go program with a constant tax rate approaches zero if the market interest rate generally exceeds the growth rate in the tax base of the pay-as-you-go retirement program.68 Under such abstract conditions, then, the positive net transfers received by early cohorts under a pay-as-you-go program are offset by negative net transfers from later cohorts, and the accumulation of net transfers across early cohorts under the program can be interpreted as a "legacy debt" that is borne by later cohorts.

Under real world conditions, however, such legacy debt measures may lose quantitative and even qualitative relevance, reflecting the much more complex relationships among uncertain, stochastic market interest rates and the growth rates in economic aggregates.69 As discussed above, the risk-adjusted interest rate appropriate to the evaluation of program outcomes from the perspective of program participants or society in general may be lower than the trust fund or other market interest rate or even the growth rate in the program's tax base as a result of the program's potential market-improving and portfolio-enhancing characteristics. Legacy debt calculations based on inappropriate risk-adjusted interest rates will misstate the burden, if any, imposed by the program on present and future cohorts.70 In short, the legacy debt concept and measure are critically sensitive to the choice of the interest rate series deemed appropriate for the evaluation of program outcomes, just as in the case of the money's worth and lifetime redistributional measures presented in this analysis.

Comparison with Previous Research

This section provides a brief general literature context for the present analysis but focuses on a review and comparison of results with the most similar previous analyses. Special attention is paid to the differences in method and results between the present analysis and Leimer (1994), which this analysis updates.

A number of studies have included intercohort analyses based on longitudinal data for individual sample cases drawn from Social Security Administration files; these studies include Frieden, Leimer, and Hoffman (1976), Burkhauser and Warlick (1981), Meyer and Wolff (1987), and Duggan, Gillingham, and Greenlees (1993). Social Security administrative data files with samples drawn from individual records contain taxes, benefits, or both over only partial lifetimes for most cohorts, however, limiting the range of cohorts that can be analyzed or necessitating the simulation of missing tax or benefit data, even for historical periods.71 Other studies have focused on results for cohorts as a whole. Leimer and Petri (1981) used a long-run general equilibrium model that included a detailed OASI sector to project future taxes and benefits by cohort but employed a less accurate accounting of historical taxes and benefits by cohort than the present study. Moffitt (1984) used historical administrative data on benefits by cohort, but estimated the historical taxes of each included cohort using median earnings by age and gender; the Moffitt analysis was also limited to a relatively narrow range of cohorts born between 1875 and 1910.

More recently, as part of the current policy debate related to restoring solvency to the OASI program, there have been numerous studies projecting various types of outcomes for varying sets of cohorts under alternative program provisions.72 The most comparable of these more recent analyses include Leimer (1994), Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001), and Goss (2001), the latter being a comment on the Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar analysis. These analyses are sufficiently similar to the present analysis to merit an examination of differences in results.

These prior studies use less accurate or less recent estimates of the historical taxes and benefits experienced by each birth cohort, employ prospective simulation methods that differ in a number of important respects from those in the present analysis, and are limited to a narrower range of cohorts. Leimer (1994), for example, had access to 13 fewer years of historical administrative data on OASI taxes and benefits by age and year than the present analysis, projects results for cohorts born through 2050 compared to 2100 in the present analysis, is based on projections from a much earlier (1991) Trustees Report, and, as discussed more fully below, uses projection methods that do not conform as closely to the Trustees Report projections. The stochastic simulations in Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001) use historical estimates patterned on those in Leimer (1994) but use projections that differ in important respects from the Trustees Report projections;73 results are limited to selected cohorts born between 1941 and 1999. While fully consistent with the 2001 Trustees Report projections, the Goss (2001) comment only presents results for the combined 1982–1986 birth cohort.

Some results from the Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001) and the Goss (2001) analyses are contrasted with those from the present analysis in Chart 12. This chart shows projected real internal rates of return under present law for the birth cohorts that are included in the Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar and in the Goss analyses. The legend in Chart 12 reflects some aspects of the different measures and treatment of benefit income taxation used in the analyses. As indicated above, the present analysis projects internal rates of return for each birth cohort as a whole net of the portion of OASI benefit income taxation returned to the OASI trust fund. The Chart 12 legend reflects this OASI benefit income tax treatment as "After OASI portion of tax." The Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (AYT) estimates in Chart 12 represent the median rate of return from the distribution of rates of return generated for the cohort as a whole from their set of stochastic simulations. Although not characterized in detail in their paper, their estimates appear to be net of all OASI benefit income taxes, including the benefit income tax revenues returned to the HI trust fund. The Chart 12 legend reflects this measure and OASI benefit income tax treatment as "Median, after tax." The Goss comment presents both "pre tax" and "after tax" estimates of the real internal rate of return for the combined 1982–86 birth cohort as a whole based on the 2001 Trustees Report assumptions. Again, while not characterized in detail in the comment, these estimates appear to be gross and net, respectively, of all OASI benefit income taxes, including those returned to the HI trust fund. The Chart 12 legend reflects this OASI benefit income tax treatment for the two estimates as "Pre tax" and "After tax."

Chart 12.
OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law as established in the present analysis; Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar [AYT] (2001); and Goss (2001), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 12. OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law as estimated in the present analysis; Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar [AYT] (2001); and Goss (2001), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present Analysis [After
OASI portion of tax]
AYT (2001) [Median,
after tax]
Goss (2001) [Pre tax] Goss (2001) [After tax]
1941 2.837 2.7708 . . . . . .
1949 2.743 2.3415 . . . . . .
1959 2.580 2.3954 . . . . . .
1969 2.541 2.6145 . . . . . .
1979 2.501 2.5395 . . . . . .
1984 2.536 . . . 2.65 2.49
1989 2.584 2.5919 . . . . . .
1999 2.698 2.6154 . . . . . .
NOTE: . . . = not applicable.
SOURCE: Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001), Goss (2001), and author's calculations. The legend notification is clarified in the text.

The two Goss estimates are displayed in Chart 12 as single data points located at the middle (1984) birth cohort in the 1982–86 cohort group. Not surprisingly, given the similarity of method and assumptions, the estimate for the 1984 birth cohort in the present analysis lies between the "pre tax" and "after tax" estimates for the 1982–1986 birth cohort group from the Goss (2001) comment. The differences between the median estimates from the Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001) analysis and the cohort estimates from the present analysis are not surprising given the differences in measure, method, and assumptions, although it is not clear why their median estimates for the 1949 and 1959 birth cohorts dip so far below those for the surrounding cohorts.

One of the primary purposes of the present analysis is to update the Leimer (1994) estimates. Despite many similarities, the projection method used in Leimer (1994) differs substantially from the method used in the present analysis. A major difference is that the present analysis enforces exact consistency with the detailed economic and demographic assumptions underlying the Trustees Report. The economic and demographic projections in Leimer (1994) were simulated using a long-run general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and its interrelationships with the OASI program, with various parameters of the model calibrated to achieve as high a degree of correspondence as possible between the simulated geometric mean growth rates of key economic, demographic, and program variables and the corresponding geometric mean growth rates of those variables as projected by the 1991 Trustees Report.74 Despite a close correspondence in the cumulative growth in these variables over the full Trustees Report projection period, the annual time paths of some of the economic variables nevertheless differed in important ways between the two projection methods within and beyond that projection period. These differences had associated significant effects on estimated outcomes across birth cohorts.

The simulated time path of real wage growth under the two projection methods is an important example. In contrast to the exogenous and generally flat real wage growth rate assumptions in the Trustees Report, annual real wages in the Leimer (1994) general equilibrium model responded endogenously to simulated changes in labor productivity arising from such factors as the assumed rate and nature of technological progress, the changing demographic structure of the work force, and the ratio of capital to effective (productivity-weighted) labor. The effects of the demographic structure and capital/labor ratio factors varied significantly over the Trustees Report projection period as, for example, the baby-boom cohorts moved through various life cycle stages characterized by different productivity, labor supply, and saving behavior. As a consequence, the simulated real wage growth rate in the Leimer (1994) projections was significantly above the Trustees Report real wage growth rate assumptions during the first part of the projection period but significantly below the Trustees Report assumptions during the last part of the projection period.75 This different time path in simulated real wage growth in turn affected the simulated pattern of lifetime outcomes under the program across affected birth cohorts. In particular, since real wage growth under these constraints was lower during the last part of the projection period in the Leimer (1994) projections than in the Trustees Report, relative lifetime outcomes under the program for the most distant birth cohorts were also projected to be less favorable than if higher real wage growth had been projected over that period.

Whether the constrained general equilibrium approach adopted in Leimer (1994) or the approach of exact adherence to the Trustees Report assumptions adopted in the present analysis is preferable depends on the interpretation and use of the analysis results. The approach in the present analysis has the advantage of precise and continuous consistency with the economic and demographic assumptions underlying the Trustees Report, which represents the official projection of the financial status of the program. In contrast, the simulation approach in Leimer (1994) has the advantage of generating projections that are internally consistent across all of the economic and demographic variables within the context of a general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and its interrelations with the OASI program.76

Some of the effects of the alternative simulation methods are reflected in Chart 13, which contrasts projections of OASI real internal rates of return for single-year birth cohorts under present law in the Leimer (1994) analysis and the present analysis. The different projected time path of real wage growth accounts for much of the difference between the two sets of results. Another contributing factor is the somewhat lower labor force growth projected towards the end of the projection period in the 1991 Trustees Report underlying the Leimer (1994) estimates than in the 2002 Trustees Report underlying the present analysis.77 Another important difference in the internal rate of return estimates under present law assumptions arises from differences in the mortality rate projections underlying the two analyses;78 mortality rates were projected to be generally higher and life expectancies corresponding lower for distant cohorts in the 1991 Trustees Report than in the 2002 Trustees Report.79 For a number of reasons, then, the real internal rates of return projected under present law for the most distant cohorts differ substantially between the two analyses. For example, the real internal rate projected for the 2050 cohort under the present law policy was 1.71 percent in the Leimer (1994) analysis in contrast to 3.06 percent in the present analysis.

Chart 13.
OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 13. OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.82
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.22
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.96
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.63
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 3.00 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.65 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.75 2.33
1945 2.72 2.29
1946 2.67 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.68 2.13
1949 2.74 2.17
1950 2.76 2.18
1951 2.71 2.16
1952 2.71 2.12
1953 2.74 2.12
1954 2.73 2.09
1955 2.69 2.04
1956 2.67 2.02
1957 2.64 1.98
1958 2.63 1.92
1959 2.58 1.87
1960 2.50 1.84
1961 2.53 1.84
1962 2.52 1.81
1963 2.55 1.83
1964 2.53 1.80
1965 2.54 1.78
1966 2.55 1.81
1967 2.55 1.85
1968 2.56 1.90
1969 2.54 1.94
1970 2.51 1.94
1971 2.53 1.83
1972 2.54 1.73
1973 2.53 1.80
1974 2.52 1.87
1975 2.51 1.87
1976 2.50 1.89
1977 2.49 1.90
1978 2.50 1.88
1979 2.50 1.90
1980 2.48 1.87
1981 2.49 1.83
1982 2.50 1.82
1983 2.52 1.78
1984 2.54 1.80
1985 2.55 1.82
1986 2.56 1.79
1987 2.57 1.79
1988 2.58 1.81
1989 2.58 1.82
1990 2.59 1.80
1991 2.60 1.73
1992 2.62 1.73
1993 2.63 1.73
1994 2.64 1.73
1995 2.65 1.73
1996 2.67 1.73
1997 2.68 1.73
1998 2.69 1.73
1999 2.70 1.74
2000 2.70 1.74
2001 2.71 1.74
2002 2.73 1.74
2003 2.74 1.75
2004 2.75 1.75
2005 2.76 1.75
2006 2.77 1.75
2007 2.78 1.75
2008 2.79 1.75
2009 2.80 1.75
2010 2.81 1.75
2011 2.82 1.75
2012 2.83 1.75
2013 2.84 1.75
2014 2.85 1.75
2015 2.85 1.75
2016 2.86 1.75
2017 2.87 1.75
2018 2.88 1.75
2019 2.89 1.75
2020 2.90 1.74
2021 2.90 1.74
2022 2.91 1.74
2023 2.92 1.74
2024 2.92 1.74
2025 2.93 1.74
2026 2.93 1.74
2027 2.94 1.74
2028 2.95 1.73
2029 2.95 1.73
2030 2.96 1.73
2031 2.96 1.73
2032 2.97 1.73
2033 2.97 1.73
2034 2.98 1.73
2035 2.98 1.73
2036 2.99 1.73
2037 2.99 1.72
2038 3.00 1.72
2039 3.00 1.72
2040 3.01 1.72
2041 3.01 1.72
2042 3.02 1.72
2043 3.02 1.72
2044 3.03 1.72
2045 3.03 1.72
2046 3.04 1.71
2047 3.04 1.71
2048 3.05 1.71
2049 3.05 1.71
2050 3.06 1.71
 
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.

Analogous comparisons between the simulations of balanced budget award and balanced budget tax policies in the Leimer (1994) and present analyses are presented in Charts 14 and 15. In addition to the differences discussed above in the economic and demographic assumptions and simulation approaches underlying the two analyses, details of the balanced budget award and balanced budget tax policies differ between the two analyses. Nevertheless, the balanced budget award and balanced budget tax policies in both analyses are designed to bring the OASI program into financial balance over a simulation period extending far beyond the respective Trustees Report projection periods.80 The higher internal rates of return that are projected for the most distant cohorts under each balanced budget policy in the present analysis compared to the Leimer (1994) analysis are illustrated in Charts 14 and 15. The real internal rate of return for the 2050 cohort, for example, is projected as 0.80 percent under the Leimer (1994) balanced budget award policy and as 1.35 percent for the balanced budget award policy in the present analysis. The real internal rate of return for the 2050 cohort is projected as 0.94 percent under the Leimer (1994) balanced budget tax policy compared to 1.60 percent under the balanced budget tax policy in the present analysis. Again, much of the difference in the internal rates of return projected for the most distant cohorts in the present analysis compared to those projected in the Leimer (1994) analysis can be attributed to differences between the projected time paths of real wage growth and the labor force in the two analyses.

Chart 14.
OASI real internal rates of return projected under the balanced budget award policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 14. OASI real internal rates of return projected under the balanced budget award policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.82
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.21
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.95
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.64
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 2.99 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.64 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.74 2.33
1945 2.71 2.29
1946 2.67 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.67 2.13
1949 2.73 2.17
1950 2.73 2.18
1951 2.67 2.15
1952 2.65 2.12
1953 2.66 2.12
1954 2.61 2.08
1955 2.54 2.03
1956 2.49 2.00
1957 2.44 1.95
1958 2.40 1.88
1959 2.32 1.82
1960 2.20 1.78
1961 2.20 1.77
1962 2.17 1.72
1963 2.16 1.72
1964 2.12 1.69
1965 2.09 1.65
1966 2.07 1.67
1967 2.04 1.70
1968 2.01 1.73
1969 1.97 1.76
1970 1.91 1.75
1971 1.89 1.62
1972 1.88 1.51
1973 1.84 1.56
1974 1.80 1.62
1975 1.77 1.61
1976 1.73 1.61
1977 1.69 1.61
1978 1.67 1.57
1979 1.65 1.57
1980 1.60 1.53
1981 1.59 1.48
1982 1.58 1.45
1983 1.57 1.40
1984 1.57 1.41
1985 1.56 1.42
1986 1.55 1.37
1987 1.54 1.36
1988 1.53 1.36
1989 1.51 1.36
1990 1.50 1.32
1991 1.49 1.23
1992 1.49 1.22
1993 1.48 1.20
1994 1.48 1.18
1995 1.47 1.17
1996 1.46 1.16
1997 1.46 1.15
1998 1.45 1.13
1999 1.44 1.12
2000 1.43 1.11
2001 1.42 1.10
2002 1.42 1.08
2003 1.41 1.07
2004 1.41 1.06
2005 1.40 1.04
2006 1.40 1.03
2007 1.39 1.01
2008 1.39 1.00
2009 1.38 0.98
2010 1.38 0.97
2011 1.37 0.95
2012 1.37 0.93
2013 1.37 0.92
2014 1.37 0.90
2015 1.37 0.89
2016 1.37 0.87
2017 1.37 0.86
2018 1.37 0.85
2019 1.37 0.84
2020 1.37 0.84
2021 1.37 0.83
2022 1.37 0.83
2023 1.38 0.83
2024 1.38 0.83
2025 1.38 0.83
2026 1.39 0.83
2027 1.39 0.82
2028 1.39 0.81
2029 1.39 0.81
2030 1.39 0.81
2031 1.38 0.81
2032 1.38 0.81
2033 1.38 0.81
2034 1.37 0.81
2035 1.37 0.81
2036 1.36 0.81
2037 1.36 0.81
2038 1.36 0.81
2039 1.36 0.81
2040 1.35 0.81
2041 1.35 0.81
2042 1.35 0.80
2043 1.35 0.80
2044 1.35 0.80
2045 1.35 0.80
2046 1.35 0.80
2047 1.35 0.80
2048 1.35 0.80
2049 1.35 0.80
2050 1.35 0.80
 
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.
Chart 15.
OASI real interanl rates of return projected under the balanced budget tax policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Line chart with tabular format below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for Chart 15. OASI real internal rates of return projected under the balanced budget tax policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.81
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.22
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.96
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.63
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 2.99 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.64 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.74 2.33
1945 2.71 2.29
1946 2.66 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.68 2.14
1949 2.74 2.17
1950 2.75 2.18
1951 2.70 2.16
1952 2.70 2.12
1953 2.73 2.12
1954 2.71 2.09
1955 2.67 2.04
1956 2.65 2.02
1957 2.62 1.98
1958 2.60 1.91
1959 2.55 1.86
1960 2.46 1.84
1961 2.48 1.84
1962 2.48 1.81
1963 2.49 1.83
1964 2.47 1.80
1965 2.47 1.77
1966 2.47 1.80
1967 2.46 1.84
1968 2.46 1.89
1969 2.44 1.93
1970 2.40 1.92
1971 2.40 1.79
1972 2.41 1.71
1973 2.38 1.76
1974 2.36 1.84
1975 2.34 1.83
1976 2.32 1.84
1977 2.30 1.85
1978 2.30 1.82
1979 2.28 1.83
1980 2.25 1.80
1981 2.24 1.76
1982 2.24 1.73
1983 2.24 1.69
1984 2.24 1.70
1985 2.24 1.72
1986 2.23 1.67
1987 2.23 1.67
1988 2.22 1.67
1989 2.21 1.67
1990 2.20 1.65
1991 2.20 1.56
1992 2.20 1.55
1993 2.19 1.54
1994 2.19 1.53
1995 2.18 1.53
1996 2.18 1.51
1997 2.17 1.51
1998 2.16 1.50
1999 2.15 1.50
2000 2.14 1.48
2001 2.13 1.47
2002 2.13 1.47
2003 2.12 1.45
2004 2.11 1.45
2005 2.10 1.43
2006 2.09 1.42
2007 2.08 1.41
2008 2.07 1.40
2009 2.06 1.39
2010 2.05 1.38
2011 2.03 1.36
2012 2.02 1.35
2013 2.01 1.34
2014 2.00 1.33
2015 1.99 1.32
2016 1.97 1.30
2017 1.96 1.29
2018 1.95 1.28
2019 1.93 1.27
2020 1.92 1.26
2021 1.90 1.24
2022 1.89 1.23
2023 1.88 1.22
2024 1.86 1.21
2025 1.85 1.19
2026 1.83 1.18
2027 1.82 1.17
2028 1.80 1.16
2029 1.79 1.15
2030 1.78 1.13
2031 1.76 1.12
2032 1.75 1.11
2033 1.74 1.10
2034 1.73 1.09
2035 1.72 1.08
2036 1.70 1.07
2037 1.69 1.05
2038 1.68 1.04
2039 1.67 1.03
2040 1.67 1.02
2041 1.66 1.02
2042 1.65 1.00
2043 1.64 1.00
2044 1.63 0.99
2045 1.63 0.99
2046 1.62 0.97
2047 1.61 0.97
2048 1.61 0.95
2049 1.60 0.95
2050 1.60 0.94
 
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.

Concluding Comments

This study presents various measures of the balance between lifetime taxes and benefits for past, present, and future birth cohorts under OASI present law and under stylized solvent tax rate and benefit award adjustment policies conditional on the intermediate assumptions in the 2002 Trustees Report. These estimates update corresponding estimates presented in Leimer (1994) and reflect an accounting of OASI taxes and benefits that is more comprehensive, more accurate historically and extensive prospectively, and/or conforms more closely to the official Trustees Report projections than analogous estimates in previous analyses. The various interest rate series and redistributional and money's worth measures included in this analysis are intended to facilitate comparison with previous analyses and to increase the range of questions to which the results can be applied.

While lifetime benefits exceed lifetime taxes for early cohorts under all of the interest rate assumptions, net program outcomes for many present and future cohorts depend critically on the interest rates used to calculate the various measures. In a stochastic world where retirement saving alternatives have different risk and return characteristics, the choice of an appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate to evaluate program outcomes is difficult and controversial.

Based on the internal rate of return estimates in this analysis, even the most distant birth cohorts will receive their money's worth from the OASI program under any of the policies considered if a risk-adjusted real interest rate below 1.35 percent is deemed appropriate for evaluating program outcomes. If instead, a risk-adjusted real interest rate of 2 percent or above is deemed appropriate, then no cohort born after about 2015 is projected to receive its money's worth by this measure under either of the balanced budget policies considered.

Based on the other money's worth and lifetime redistributional measures in this analysis, estimated lifetime benefits exceed lifetime taxes for all past, present, and future birth cohorts for both the zero real and tax base growth rate interest rate assumptions under either balanced budget policy. This result is consistent with the interpretation that the market-improving and portfolio-enhancing features of the OASI program justify the use of a relatively low interest rate in the calculation of the money's worth and lifetime redistributional measures. In contrast, estimated lifetime taxes exceed lifetime benefits for many present and all future birth cohorts for both the trust fund and large company stock interest rate assumptions under either balanced budget policy. This result is consistent with the interpretation that the market-improving and portfolio-enhancing features of the OASI program are insufficient to justify the use of a relatively low interest rate or are dominated by offsetting characteristics of the program, such as perceived political risk differentials. Because a mature public retirement program financed on an essentially pay-as-you-go basis tends to generate a rate of return for program participants roughly equal to the growth rate in the program's tax base, lifetime benefits will tend to be greater (less) than lifetime taxes if the risk-adjusted interest rate series used in the calculations is generally less (greater) than the growth rate in the program tax base.

Under certain assumptions, the aggregate lifetime net transfer estimates developed in this analysis can be used to calculate the legacy debt associated with net transfers to early cohorts under the OASI program. The legacy debt concept and measure are critically sensitive to the choice of the interest rate series deemed appropriate for the evaluation of program outcomes, however, just as for the money's worth and lifetime redistributional measures. As such, the typical practice of using the trust fund or other market interest rate unadjusted for risk in the legacy debt calculation may produce a quantitatively misleading or even qualitatively invalid indication of any "debt" or "burden" imposed by the program on present and future cohorts.

Appendix A.

This appendix presents OASI money's worth and redistributional measures of lifetime outcomes by birth cohort as simulated under the present law policy consistent with the underlying Trustees Report projections. Because the program is projected to be out of long-run financial balance under present law provisions, these present law outcomes include unfunded benefits.

Table A–1 OASI money's worth and redistributional measures (including unfunded benefits) under present law, by birth cohort
Birth
cohort
Real
internal
rate of
return
(percent)
Lifetime benefit/tax ratio Lifetime net transfer per initial cohort
member evaluated as of the initial cohort
year in constant (2001) dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
evaluated as of year-end 2001
in billions of dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
as a percent of
aggregate lifetime taxable earnings
Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Pre–1901 18.367 12.037 6.093 12.037 3.207 31,365 6,478 36,760 2,165 1,637.203 3,912.972 4,313.035 13,676.469 34.97 13.39 35.27 5.12
1901 10.868 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 10.481 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 10.329 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 9.881 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 9.444 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 9.061 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 8.950 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 8.583 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 8.170 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 7.918 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 7.827 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 7.447 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835 223.759 244.892 428.995 515.688 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 7.319 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 6.948 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357 101,417 8,908 78,101 1,213 242.292 246.283 419.411 350.614 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 6.820 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288 100,249 8,595 73,098 945 246.675 244.736 404.299 281.400 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 6.650 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210 105,892 8,797 72,334 716 252.141 242.387 387.148 206.414 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 6.333 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082 96,989 7,647 61,573 267 243.594 222.256 347.606 81.261 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 5.912 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927 96,059 7,010 55,225 -256 242.391 204.685 313.232 -78.107 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 5.578 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835 88,188 5,988 45,165 -554 223.952 175.974 257.809 -170.316 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 5.378 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754 93,299 6,018 42,712 -881 237.471 177.265 244.361 -271.293 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 5.098 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673 95,665 5,730 38,368 -1,245 243.133 168.538 219.185 -382.817 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 4.949 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619 93,622 5,350 33,189 -1,404 237.395 156.975 189.167 -430.817 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 4.748 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565 94,704 5,094 29,216 -1,626 236.927 147.486 164.291 -492.440 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 4.554 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519 98,910 4,976 26,144 -1,899 241.876 140.816 143.705 -562.013 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 4.453 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490 99,944 4,850 23,018 -1,982 241.940 135.861 125.249 -580.543 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 4.249 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447 98,621 4,411 18,445 -2,153 235.838 122.065 99.144 -622.990 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 4.114 2.776 1.426 1.259 0.419 103,283 4,348 15,545 -2,342 239.855 116.858 81.143 -658.247 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 3.910 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387 102,655 3,894 10,862 -2,499 231.153 101.469 54.976 -680.970 13.99 2.48 1.33 -3.42
1929 3.735 2.566 1.321 1.097 0.360 100,946 3,454 6,267 -2,570 221.021 87.513 30.841 -680.943 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 3.627 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344 103,705 3,304 3,321 -2,670 223.263 82.312 16.072 -695.571 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 3.546 2.474 1.279 1.012 0.330 101,916 3,064 772 -2,593 219.617 76.413 3.742 -676.321 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 3.476 2.442 1.264 0.980 0.318 100,466 2,856 -1,310 -2,537 220.560 72.564 -6.462 -673.988 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 3.259 2.332 1.205 0.914 0.296 94,529 2,201 -5,715 -2,553 208.711 56.248 -28.365 -682.229 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 3.228 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295 97,235 2,211 -6,856 -2,527 217.958 57.341 -34.544 -685.424 12.59 1.65 -0.87 -5.16
1935 3.068 2.246 1.162 0.851 0.285 95,654 1,806 -10,317 -2,568 220.733 48.238 -53.512 -717.143 11.98 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 2.995 2.218 1.150 0.826 0.284 96,211 1,682 -12,201 -2,533 224.664 45.446 -64.041 -715.951 11.88 1.27 -1.52 -5.57
1937 3.127 2.314 1.205 0.850 0.295 103,510 2,242 -10,262 -2,373 251.299 62.990 -56.000 -697.310 13.07 1.78 -1.33 -5.62
1938 2.966 2.229 1.165 0.806 0.284 105,471 1,774 -14,962 -3,395 258.062 54.569 -78.136 -745.349 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 2.946 2.233 1.172 0.797 0.283 108,138 2,082 -16,035 -3,323 266.743 57.262 -82.060 -735.035 12.60 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 2.882 2.204 1.165 0.778 0.279 111,409 2,255 -18,384 -3,012 277.107 56.972 -93.547 -751.622 12.47 1.52 -2.05 -6.13
1941 2.837 2.190 1.163 0.765 0.274 110,124 2,535 -17,739 -2,343 291.573 58.910 -102.993 -772.605 12.46 1.53 -2.19 -6.28
1942 2.645 2.098 1.115 0.721 0.255 107,346 2,154 -20,575 -2,711 315.264 47.969 -141.609 -900.313 11.58 1.10 -2.64 -6.53
1943 2.653 2.110 1.132 0.720 0.254 111,133 2,803 -20,363 -3,240 337.248 56.436 -146.335 -911.186 11.84 1.27 -2.67 -6.62
1944 2.745 2.158 1.174 0.739 0.260 118,614 3,737 -18,808 -3,641 343.021 70.932 -128.963 -832.063 12.53 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 2.717 2.144 1.178 0.732 0.256 123,276 3,745 -19,767 -4,912 346.853 72.388 -132.121 -818.324 12.49 1.78 -2.61 -6.76
1946 2.668 2.125 1.175 0.720 0.243 124,077 3,418 -17,811 -3,810 416.281 84.820 -164.438 -972.930 12.39 1.77 -2.75 -6.94
1947 2.621 2.105 1.172 0.710 0.235 124,877 3,506 -17,216 -3,657 470.790 93.940 -191.099 -1,082.200 12.26 1.76 -2.87 -7.08
1948 2.681 2.139 1.204 0.724 0.236 131,898 4,329 -16,264 -3,626 474.929 106.022 -172.228 -997.688 12.76 2.11 -2.76 -7.12
1949 2.743 2.173 1.235 0.739 0.239 139,635 4,960 -15,738 -4,232 499.661 121.892 -160.550 -956.532 13.28 2.46 -2.63 -7.16
1950 2.759 2.185 1.252 0.745 0.238 140,088 5,202 -14,257 -4,951 521.045 131.430 -156.765 -934.246 13.51 2.66 -2.59 -7.22
1951 2.711 2.163 1.245 0.737 0.235 141,470 6,659 -14,337 -5,711 541.900 132.889 -167.058 -947.420 13.32 2.61 -2.70 -7.31
1952 2.709 2.163 1.254 0.740 0.237 145,600 7,338 -14,300 -6,476 571.007 142.010 -168.329 -937.441 13.41 2.73 -2.68 -7.35
1953 2.745 2.183 1.277 0.753 0.245 149,506 8,274 -13,439 -5,947 600.837 156.315 -159.425 -896.490 13.72 3.00 -2.57 -7.34
1954 2.727 2.176 1.280 0.754 0.248 153,273 8,363 -13,738 -8,797 629.674 163.515 -162.041 -883.842 13.70 3.06 -2.57 -7.36
1955 2.686 2.151 1.275 0.752 0.254 152,518 9,588 -13,836 -10,825 636.546 162.019 -162.835 -842.972 13.45 3.02 -2.61 -7.36
1956 2.666 2.138 1.277 0.756 0.267 152,684 10,065 -13,226 -10,302 653.526 165.564 -160.348 -794.148 13.34 3.06 -2.59 -7.30
1957 2.643 2.120 1.277 0.761 0.286 152,467 10,297 -12,561 -8,084 663.144 166.888 -155.544 -731.175 13.17 3.08 -2.55 -7.17
1958 2.627 2.111 1.281 0.767 0.299 153,648 10,138 -11,986 -10,367 667.117 167.523 -147.070 -664.453 13.11 3.13 -2.50 -7.10
1959 2.580 2.086 1.273 0.768 0.312 154,490 10,953 -11,954 -10,570 667.137 163.217 -144.339 -610.827 12.83 3.06 -2.51 -7.03
1960 2.499 2.048 1.253 0.760 0.323 151,590 10,235 -12,252 -9,628 659.903 152.490 -147.509 -566.522 12.38 2.85 -2.61 -7.00
1961 2.528 2.062 1.272 0.779 0.347 155,207 10,913 -11,096 -10,636 673.974 161.220 -130.576 -495.272 12.59 3.07 -2.41 -6.82
1962 2.525 2.063 1.279 0.789 0.362 159,313 11,615 -10,553 -8,695 678.355 162.986 -119.882 -440.298 12.63 3.16 -2.31 -6.73
1963 2.549 2.074 1.296 0.808 0.383 162,508 12,305 -9,395 -9,174 680.694 167.682 -103.699 -378.297 12.79 3.37 -2.12 -6.56
1964 2.534 2.071 1.299 0.814 0.399 166,497 12,978 -9,119 -9,614 676.319 165.594 -95.829 -333.969 12.77 3.41 -2.05 -6.43
1965 2.541 2.074 1.310 0.827 0.422 170,944 13,997 -8,409 -9,424 657.964 162.619 -82.714 -281.168 12.82 3.53 -1.91 -6.22
1966 2.547 2.078 1.319 0.839 0.443 174,956 17,398 -7,689 -7,308 645.481 160.635 -72.423 -240.139 12.87 3.65 -1.79 -6.01
1967 2.550 2.075 1.327 0.849 0.461 180,569 18,461 -7,186 -7,920 647.141 161.603 -65.320 -210.127 12.84 3.73 -1.68 -5.83
1968 2.559 2.079 1.337 0.859 0.473 182,780 20,444 -6,461 -7,501 655.557 164.653 -59.228 -187.793 12.89 3.85 -1.57 -5.70
1969 2.541 2.074 1.337 0.859 0.476 184,081 20,532 -6,189 -5,989 676.797 167.933 -59.137 -178.229 12.82 3.85 -1.57 -5.68
1970 2.514 2.062 1.333 0.857 0.480 184,851 19,833 -6,109 -5,443 694.725 169.434 -59.974 -167.941 12.67 3.81 -1.59 -5.63
1971 2.527 2.071 1.345 0.864 0.481 189,533 20,328 -5,788 -5,576 687.464 168.625 -53.910 -150.141 12.78 3.94 -1.51 -5.62
1972 2.545 2.080 1.358 0.872 0.480 196,059 23,241 -5,461 -5,992 661.889 163.651 -46.492 -130.516 12.90 4.09 -1.42 -5.62
1973 2.529 2.075 1.359 0.870 0.470 200,555 25,083 -5,341 -4,536 650.829 159.162 -45.008 -121.088 12.83 4.10 -1.44 -5.72
1974 2.521 2.074 1.362 0.870 0.461 202,700 25,418 -4,962 -2,835 660.016 160.212 -44.345 -115.863 12.83 4.14 -1.44 -5.82
1975 2.513 2.072 1.365 0.869 0.451 205,094 24,891 -4,866 -3,472 669.830 161.331 -43.800 -111.012 12.80 4.17 -1.45 -5.92
1976 2.502 2.069 1.366 0.867 0.440 206,315 26,245 -4,921 -3,930 685.851 163.501 -44.277 -108.234 12.76 4.19 -1.48 -6.04
1977 2.495 2.068 1.368 0.866 0.431 207,855 27,168 -4,866 -3,264 711.182 168.038 -44.992 -106.440 12.75 4.22 -1.49 -6.13
1978 2.501 2.073 1.376 0.868 0.417 211,718 28,392 -4,623 -3,076 735.687 173.411 -44.164 -104.230 12.82 4.30 -1.47 -6.28
1979 2.501 2.075 1.380 0.867 0.401 213,732 29,267 -4,294 -3,107 772.232 180.727 -44.990 -104.732 12.85 4.35 -1.48 -6.46
1980 2.480 2.066 1.376 0.862 0.385 220,333 29,180 -4,342 -3,655 812.891 186.890 -48.113 -106.766 12.73 4.31 -1.54 -6.63
1981 2.491 2.073 1.383 0.864 0.372 222,695 29,584 -4,180 -3,055 833.015 190.946 -46.538 -103.656 12.83 4.40 -1.51 -6.77
1982 2.501 2.080 1.390 0.867 0.361 226,192 30,397 -4,284 -3,425 853.854 194.931 -45.103 -100.351 12.92 4.48 -1.48 -6.89
1983 2.519 2.090 1.400 0.871 0.357 230,199 31,703 -4,311 -3,822 862.212 196.603 -42.172 -94.148 13.05 4.59 -1.43 -6.94
1984 2.536 2.099 1.408 0.876 0.357 233,664 34,184 -4,360 -3,668 882.359 200.800 -39.984 -89.089 13.17 4.69 -1.38 -6.94
1985 2.546 2.105 1.415 0.879 0.356 236,196 35,466 -4,460 -4,385 909.691 205.925 -38.878 -85.293 13.24 4.77 -1.35 -6.95
1986 2.557 2.113 1.422 0.881 0.352 240,188 37,976 -4,712 -4,867 929.692 209.309 -37.493 -81.219 13.35 4.85 -1.33 -6.99
1987 2.567 2.120 1.428 0.883 0.350 243,040 38,869 -4,761 -4,627 953.317 213.298 -36.400 -77.632 13.45 4.93 -1.30 -7.02
1988 2.578 2.128 1.435 0.886 0.349 245,655 39,857 -4,764 -4,859 985.860 219.302 -35.440 -74.576 13.54 5.01 -1.27 -7.03
1989 2.584 2.133 1.439 0.887 0.347 247,283 40,769 -4,810 -5,745 1,028.081 226.788 -35.404 -72.691 13.61 5.06 -1.26 -7.05
1990 2.593 2.140 1.445 0.889 0.346 252,579 41,032 -4,791 -4,981 1,065.362 233.370 -34.729 -70.069 13.70 5.13 -1.24 -7.06
1991 2.602 2.147 1.451 0.891 0.344 257,024 41,326 -4,887 -5,982 1,083.693 235.694 -33.453 -66.404 13.80 5.20 -1.22 -7.09
1992 2.617 2.157 1.460 0.895 0.345 262,509 42,682 -4,893 -5,914 1,093.268 236.636 -31.312 -61.974 13.93 5.30 -1.18 -7.08
1993 2.632 2.167 1.468 0.898 0.345 268,413 43,975 -4,898 -5,998 1,100.319 236.925 -29.266 -57.799 14.06 5.40 -1.14 -7.08
1994 2.645 2.176 1.475 0.901 0.344 274,113 45,932 -4,912 -5,605 1,110.573 237.665 -27.568 -54.100 14.18 5.49 -1.10 -7.08
1995 2.652 2.182 1.481 0.903 0.345 279,197 47,429 -4,989 -7,115 1,119.283 237.583 -26.331 -50.695 14.25 5.55 -1.08 -7.08
1996 2.666 2.192 1.489 0.907 0.346 284,863 49,023 -4,920 -8,003 1,137.774 240.083 -24.826 -47.698 14.38 5.65 -1.04 -7.07
1997 2.677 2.199 1.495 0.909 0.347 289,710 52,046 -4,940 -9,894 1,160.961 243.312 -23.644 -45.115 14.48 5.73 -1.01 -7.06
1998 2.686 2.205 1.501 0.912 0.348 293,872 55,253 -4,983 -11,792 1,183.926 246.162 -22.712 -42.721 14.56 5.79 -0.99 -7.05
1999 2.698 2.213 1.508 0.915 0.349 298,644 57,756 -4,903 -13,089 1,204.470 248.743 -21.470 -40.270 14.66 5.88 -0.95 -7.04
2000 2.701 2.216 1.511 0.916 0.350 301,163 59,460 -4,899 -10,818 1,255.330 256.734 -21.446 -39.129 14.70 5.92 -0.94 -7.03
2001 2.713 2.224 1.518 0.919 0.351 306,570 62,249 -4,868 -8,858 1,274.224 258.732 -20.234 -36.818 14.80 6.00 -0.91 -7.02
2002 2.726 2.232 1.525 0.922 0.353 312,258 63,480 -4,799 -9,136 1,295.008 261.229 -18.930 -34.653 14.91 6.09 -0.87 -7.00
2003 2.738 2.240 1.532 0.925 0.354 317,768 66,170 -4,692 -9,307 1,316.223 263.581 -17.795 -32.647 15.01 6.17 -0.83 -6.99
2004 2.750 2.248 1.539 0.929 0.356 323,380 68,448 -4,557 -9,460 1,339.611 266.352 -16.668 -30.790 15.11 6.25 -0.80 -6.97
2005 2.761 2.255 1.546 0.932 0.357 328,861 70,670 -4,431 -9,597 1,364.303 269.156 -15.682 -29.070 15.21 6.33 -0.76 -6.96
2006 2.769 2.261 1.551 0.934 0.359 333,867 72,676 -4,346 -9,729 1,388.975 271.633 -14.916 -27.490 15.28 6.39 -0.74 -6.94
2007 2.781 2.269 1.558 0.938 0.360 339,617 74,890 -4,173 -9,855 1,418.446 275.335 -13.907 -26.007 15.39 6.48 -0.70 -6.93
2008 2.792 2.276 1.564 0.940 0.362 345,077 77,000 -4,036 -9,981 1,448.234 278.793 -13.073 -24.633 15.48 6.55 -0.67 -6.91
2009 2.800 2.281 1.569 0.943 0.363 350,238 78,857 -3,934 -10,103 1,477.762 281.897 -12.400 -23.348 15.56 6.61 -0.64 -6.90
2010 2.810 2.288 1.575 0.945 0.365 355,752 80,797 -3,794 -10,217 1,508.907 285.343 -11.642 -22.126 15.64 6.68 -0.61 -6.88
2011 2.818 2.294 1.580 0.948 0.366 361,277 82,677 -3,670 -10,332 1,539.684 288.515 -10.959 -20.968 15.72 6.74 -0.58 -6.87
2012 2.828 2.301 1.586 0.951 0.367 367,076 84,637 -3,519 -10,444 1,570.982 291.769 -10.226 -19.863 15.81 6.81 -0.55 -6.86
2013 2.837 2.307 1.591 0.953 0.368 372,922 86,540 -3,384 -10,555 1,601.612 294.687 -9.565 -18.809 15.90 6.88 -0.53 -6.85
2014 2.846 2.314 1.596 0.956 0.369 378,969 88,478 -3,233 -10,664 1,632.292 297.555 -8.888 -17.806 15.99 6.94 -0.50 -6.84
2015 2.855 2.320 1.601 0.958 0.370 385,052 90,364 -3,089 -10,769 1,662.351 300.149 -8.257 -16.850 16.07 7.00 -0.47 -6.83
2016 2.864 2.327 1.607 0.961 0.371 391,363 92,289 -2,927 -10,869 1,692.787 302.743 -7.609 -15.937 16.16 7.07 -0.44 -6.82
2017 2.872 2.333 1.612 0.963 0.372 397,598 94,172 -2,786 -10,970 1,722.270 304.973 -7.038 -15.073 16.24 7.13 -0.41 -6.81
2018 2.881 2.340 1.617 0.966 0.373 404,166 96,148 -2,624 -11,074 1,752.665 307.327 -6.443 -14.256 16.33 7.19 -0.39 -6.80
2019 2.889 2.346 1.622 0.968 0.373 410,709 98,111 -2,479 -11,182 1,782.360 309.382 -5.914 -13.484 16.42 7.25 -0.36 -6.79
2020 2.896 2.352 1.626 0.970 0.373 417,259 100,030 -2,352 -11,299 1,811.317 311.143 -5.450 -12.757 16.49 7.30 -0.34 -6.79
2021 2.903 2.358 1.630 0.972 0.373 423,893 101,959 -2,227 -11,418 1,839.705 312.698 -5.009 -12.065 16.57 7.35 -0.32 -6.79
2022 2.910 2.364 1.634 0.974 0.373 430,657 103,891 -2,101 -11,541 1,867.678 314.091 -4.584 -11.406 16.65 7.40 -0.30 -6.79
2023 2.916 2.370 1.638 0.975 0.373 437,524 105,848 -1,976 -11,668 1,895.138 315.301 -4.181 -10.781 16.72 7.45 -0.28 -6.79
2024 2.922 2.375 1.642 0.977 0.373 444,498 107,842 -1,849 -11,796 1,922.293 316.379 -3.792 -10.186 16.80 7.50 -0.25 -6.79
2025 2.929 2.381 1.646 0.979 0.373 451,559 109,850 -1,727 -11,930 1,949.558 317.374 -3.433 -9.627 16.87 7.55 -0.24 -6.80
2026 2.935 2.386 1.650 0.981 0.373 458,708 111,898 -1,598 -12,063 1,976.966 318.329 -3.079 -9.095 16.94 7.59 -0.22 -6.80
2027 2.941 2.391 1.654 0.983 0.373 465,597 113,886 -1,473 -12,189 2,010.823 320.213 -2.761 -8.620 17.01 7.64 -0.20 -6.79
2028 2.946 2.396 1.657 0.984 0.373 472,548 115,912 -1,344 -12,314 2,045.293 322.101 -2.451 -8.170 17.08 7.68 -0.18 -6.79
2029 2.952 2.402 1.661 0.986 0.373 479,561 117,979 -1,222 -12,445 2,080.459 323.981 -2.169 -7.746 17.15 7.72 -0.16 -6.79
2030 2.957 2.406 1.664 0.987 0.373 486,612 120,066 -1,106 -12,580 2,116.261 325.844 -1.910 -7.348 17.21 7.76 -0.14 -6.80
2031 2.962 2.411 1.667 0.989 0.373 493,738 122,192 -986 -12,715 2,152.850 327.734 -1.658 -6.970 17.28 7.80 -0.13 -6.80
2032 2.967 2.416 1.670 0.990 0.373 500,953 124,363 -860 -12,850 2,190.229 329.660 -1.408 -6.611 17.34 7.84 -0.11 -6.80
2033 2.973 2.421 1.674 0.992 0.373 508,276 126,582 -726 -12,982 2,228.389 331.623 -1.156 -6.269 17.41 7.88 -0.09 -6.80
2034 2.978 2.426 1.677 0.993 0.373 515,668 128,845 -597 -13,121 2,267.128 333.554 -0.927 -5.947 17.48 7.92 -0.07 -6.80
2035 2.983 2.431 1.680 0.995 0.373 523,150 131,133 -471 -13,263 2,306.496 335.472 -0.711 -5.643 17.54 7.96 -0.06 -6.80
2036 2.988 2.436 1.683 0.996 0.373 530,743 133,459 -338 -13,405 2,346.484 337.394 -0.497 -5.353 17.61 8.00 -0.04 -6.80
2037 2.993 2.441 1.686 0.998 0.373 538,448 135,822 -199 -13,548 2,387.019 339.305 -0.286 -5.078 17.67 8.04 -0.02 -6.80
2038 2.998 2.446 1.690 0.999 0.373 546,283 138,228 -55 -13,691 2,428.094 341.205 -0.077 -4.816 17.74 8.07 -0.01 -6.80
2039 3.003 2.451 1.693 1.001 0.373 554,241 140,673 94 -13,835 2,469.572 343.072 0.128 -4.567 17.80 8.11 0.01 -6.80
2040 3.009 2.456 1.696 1.003 0.373 562,332 143,146 247 -13,981 2,511.411 344.896 0.326 -4.330 17.87 8.15 0.03 -6.80
2041 3.013 2.461 1.699 1.004 0.373 570,521 145,624 397 -14,132 2,553.381 346.631 0.509 -4.105 17.94 8.19 0.05 -6.80
2042 3.019 2.466 1.702 1.006 0.373 578,826 148,126 554 -14,283 2,595.504 348.307 0.692 -3.891 18.00 8.23 0.06 -6.80
2043 3.024 2.470 1.706 1.007 0.373 587,231 150,642 720 -14,431 2,637.666 349.909 0.875 -3.686 18.07 8.27 0.08 -6.80
2044 3.029 2.475 1.709 1.009 0.373 595,734 153,175 885 -14,583 2,679.894 351.423 1.045 -3.492 18.14 8.31 0.10 -6.80
2045 3.034 2.480 1.712 1.010 0.373 604,364 155,728 1,061 -14,733 2,722.380 352.900 1.218 -3.307 18.20 8.35 0.12 -6.80
2046 3.039 2.485 1.715 1.012 0.373 613,110 158,294 1,233 -14,888 2,765.168 354.317 1.376 -3.132 18.27 8.38 0.13 -6.80
2047 3.045 2.490 1.718 1.013 0.373 621,980 160,884 1,408 -15,046 2,808.362 355.700 1.527 -2.966 18.33 8.42 0.15 -6.80
2048 3.049 2.495 1.721 1.015 0.373 630,961 163,494 1,581 -15,207 2,851.984 357.045 1.668 -2.809 18.40 8.46 0.17 -6.80
2049 3.054 2.500 1.724 1.017 0.373 640,082 166,143 1,765 -15,366 2,896.226 358.396 1.808 -2.659 18.46 8.50 0.19 -6.80
2050 3.059 2.505 1.727 1.018 0.373 649,214 168,781 1,944 -15,529 2,940.571 359.662 1.936 -2.518 18.53 8.53 0.20 -6.80
2051 3.064 2.509 1.730 1.020 0.373 658,526 171,459 2,131 -15,692 2,985.843 360.970 2.063 -2.384 18.59 8.57 0.22 -6.80
2052 3.069 2.514 1.733 1.021 0.374 667,985 174,180 2,326 -15,855 3,031.981 362.307 2.188 -2.258 18.66 8.61 0.24 -6.79
2053 3.074 2.519 1.736 1.023 0.373 677,566 176,928 2,515 -16,025 3,078.930 363.639 2.300 -2.138 18.72 8.65 0.25 -6.79
2054 3.079 2.524 1.739 1.024 0.374 687,304 179,725 2,718 -16,192 3,126.923 365.029 2.415 -2.025 18.79 8.68 0.27 -6.79
2055 3.084 2.528 1.742 1.026 0.374 697,174 182,562 2,926 -16,360 3,175.919 366.454 2.528 -1.917 18.85 8.72 0.29 -6.79
2056 3.089 2.533 1.746 1.027 0.374 707,183 185,432 3,138 -16,530 3,225.994 367.917 2.636 -1.816 18.92 8.76 0.31 -6.79
2057 3.094 2.538 1.749 1.029 0.374 717,340 188,341 3,351 -16,703 3,277.229 369.417 2.737 -1.720 18.98 8.80 0.32 -6.79
2058 3.099 2.543 1.752 1.030 0.374 727,684 191,301 3,563 -16,881 3,329.836 370.975 2.830 -1.630 19.04 8.83 0.34 -6.79
2059 3.103 2.547 1.754 1.032 0.374 738,191 194,299 3,770 -17,067 3,383.696 372.563 2.912 -1.545 19.11 8.87 0.36 -6.79
2060 3.107 2.552 1.757 1.033 0.374 748,834 197,329 3,977 -17,256 3,438.653 374.174 2.988 -1.465 19.17 8.90 0.37 -6.79
2061 3.112 2.556 1.760 1.034 0.374 759,611 200,390 4,185 -17,449 3,494.659 375.800 3.058 -1.389 19.23 8.94 0.39 -6.79
2062 3.116 2.561 1.763 1.036 0.374 770,557 203,507 4,406 -17,639 3,551.822 377.474 3.132 -1.317 19.29 8.97 0.40 -6.79
2063 3.121 2.565 1.766 1.037 0.374 781,664 206,661 4,633 -17,831 3,610.035 379.167 3.204 -1.249 19.35 9.01 0.42 -6.79
2064 3.125 2.570 1.769 1.039 0.374 792,931 209,859 4,869 -18,022 3,669.240 380.874 3.275 -1.183 19.41 9.04 0.44 -6.78
2065 3.130 2.574 1.772 1.040 0.375 804,384 213,100 5,109 -18,215 3,729.481 382.594 3.343 -1.122 19.47 9.08 0.45 -6.78
2066 3.134 2.579 1.774 1.042 0.375 815,965 216,373 5,361 -18,406 3,790.431 384.302 3.413 -1.063 19.53 9.11 0.47 -6.78
2067 3.139 2.583 1.777 1.043 0.375 827,650 219,677 5,620 -18,596 3,851.917 385.975 3.480 -1.007 19.60 9.15 0.49 -6.77
2068 3.144 2.588 1.780 1.045 0.376 839,410 223,001 5,887 -18,785 3,913.757 387.593 3.545 -0.954 19.66 9.19 0.51 -6.77
2069 3.149 2.592 1.783 1.046 0.376 851,274 226,349 6,161 -18,972 3,976.051 389.166 3.609 -0.904 19.72 9.22 0.52 -6.76
2070 3.154 2.597 1.786 1.048 0.377 863,307 229,735 6,442 -19,161 4,039.068 390.720 3.669 -0.856 19.78 9.26 0.54 -6.76
2071 3.159 2.601 1.789 1.050 0.377 875,520 233,170 6,729 -19,351 4,102.869 392.258 3.727 -0.810 19.84 9.30 0.56 -6.75
2072 3.164 2.606 1.792 1.051 0.378 887,898 236,643 7,021 -19,542 4,167.363 393.768 3.782 -0.767 19.91 9.33 0.58 -6.75
2073 3.169 2.610 1.795 1.053 0.379 900,454 240,160 7,317 -19,736 4,232.628 395.257 3.832 -0.726 19.97 9.37 0.59 -6.74
2074 3.174 2.615 1.798 1.054 0.379 913,196 243,721 7,618 -19,933 4,298.741 396.730 3.879 -0.688 20.03 9.40 0.61 -6.73
2075 3.179 2.619 1.801 1.056 0.380 926,074 247,313 7,923 -20,130 4,365.490 398.169 3.923 -0.651 20.09 9.44 0.63 -6.73
2076 3.183 2.624 1.804 1.057 0.380 939,141 250,953 8,234 -20,330 4,433.153 399.599 3.963 -0.616 20.15 9.47 0.65 -6.72
2077 3.188 2.628 1.807 1.059 0.381 952,533 254,680 8,552 -20,534 4,502.439 401.083 4.002 -0.583 20.21 9.51 0.67 -6.72
2078 3.193 2.633 1.809 1.061 0.382 966,284 258,530 8,877 -20,745 4,573.561 402.635 4.038 -0.552 20.27 9.55 0.68 -6.71
2079 3.198 2.637 1.812 1.062 0.382 979,333 262,203 9,207 -20,937 4,641.529 403.830 4.072 -0.522 20.33 9.58 0.70 -6.70
2080 3.203 2.642 1.815 1.064 0.383 993,320 266,129 9,548 -21,147 4,708.479 404.850 4.100 -0.494 20.40 9.62 0.72 -6.70
2081 3.207 2.646 1.818 1.065 0.383 1,007,255 270,035 9,885 -21,358 4,781.038 406.250 4.127 -0.468 20.46 9.65 0.74 -6.69
2082 3.212 2.650 1.821 1.067 0.384 1,021,363 273,990 10,226 -21,571 4,854.861 407.663 4.150 -0.443 20.52 9.69 0.75 -6.68
2083 3.217 2.655 1.824 1.068 0.385 1,035,642 277,993 10,572 -21,786 4,929.965 409.089 4.172 -0.419 20.58 9.72 0.77 -6.68
2084 3.221 2.659 1.827 1.070 0.385 1,050,094 282,044 10,922 -22,004 5,006.378 410.527 4.191 -0.397 20.64 9.76 0.79 -6.67
2085 3.226 2.663 1.829 1.071 0.386 1,064,720 286,144 11,277 -22,224 5,084.097 411.976 4.208 -0.376 20.70 9.79 0.80 -6.67
2086 3.230 2.668 1.832 1.073 0.386 1,079,521 290,292 11,636 -22,447 5,163.118 413.433 4.222 -0.356 20.75 9.83 0.82 -6.66
2087 3.235 2.672 1.835 1.074 0.387 1,094,511 294,494 12,001 -22,671 5,243.488 414.902 4.235 -0.337 20.81 9.86 0.84 -6.66
2088 3.239 2.676 1.838 1.076 0.387 1,109,694 298,750 12,372 -22,899 5,325.193 416.379 4.246 -0.319 20.87 9.89 0.85 -6.65
2089 3.243 2.680 1.840 1.077 0.388 1,125,070 303,061 12,748 -23,129 5,408.208 417.861 4.255 -0.302 20.93 9.93 0.87 -6.65
2090 3.248 2.685 1.843 1.079 0.388 1,140,645 307,429 13,131 -23,361 5,492.515 419.346 4.262 -0.286 20.99 9.96 0.89 -6.64
2091 3.252 2.689 1.846 1.080 0.389 1,156,431 311,856 13,519 -23,596 5,578.144 420.834 4.268 -0.271 21.05 10.00 0.90 -6.63
2092 3.256 2.693 1.848 1.081 0.389 1,172,412 316,338 13,913 -23,834 5,664.974 422.313 4.271 -0.257 21.11 10.03 0.92 -6.63
2093 3.261 2.697 1.851 1.083 0.390 1,188,620 320,884 14,314 -24,074 5,753.116 423.793 4.274 -0.243 21.16 10.06 0.94 -6.62
2094 3.265 2.702 1.854 1.084 0.390 1,205,040 325,491 14,721 -24,318 5,842.459 425.262 4.275 -0.230 21.22 10.10 0.95 -6.62
2095 3.269 2.706 1.856 1.086 0.391 1,221,681 330,160 15,134 -24,564 5,933.002 426.721 4.274 -0.218 21.28 10.13 0.97 -6.61
2096 3.273 2.710 1.859 1.087 0.391 1,238,546 334,891 15,554 -24,813 6,024.704 428.163 4.271 -0.207 21.34 10.16 0.98 -6.61
2097 3.278 2.714 1.862 1.089 0.392 1,255,639 339,687 15,980 -25,065 6,117.546 429.589 4.267 -0.196 21.39 10.20 1.00 -6.60
2098 3.282 2.718 1.864 1.090 0.392 1,272,964 344,549 16,414 -25,319 6,211.512 430.996 4.262 -0.185 21.45 10.23 1.02 -6.60
2099 3.286 2.722 1.867 1.091 0.393 1,290,522 349,477 16,854 -25,577 6,306.629 432.384 4.255 -0.175 21.51 10.26 1.03 -6.59
2100 3.290 2.727 1.870 1.093 0.393 1,308,324 354,473 17,301 -25,838 6,402.966 433.758 4.247 -0.166 21.57 10.30 1.05 -6.59
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Appendix B.

This appendix presents OASI money's worth and redistributional measures of lifetime outcomes by birth cohort as simulated under the balanced budget award adjustment policy. As discussed in the text, this stylized policy brings the program into long-run financial balance consistent with the underlying Trustees Report projections.

Table B–1 OASI money's worth and redistributional measures under the award adjustment policy, by birth cohort
Birth
cohort
Real
internal
rate of
return
(percent)
Lifetime benefit/tax ratio Lifetime net transfer per initial cohort
member evaluated as of the initial cohort
year in constant (2001) dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
evaluated as of year-end 2001
in billions of dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
as a percent of
aggregate lifetime taxable earnings
Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Pre–1901 18.367 12.037 6.093 12.037 3.207 31,365 6,478 36,760 2,165 1,637.203 3,912.972 4,313.035 13,676.469 34.97 13.39 35.27 5.12
1901 10.868 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 10.481 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 10.329 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 9.881 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 9.444 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 9.061 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 8.950 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 8.583 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 8.170 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 7.918 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 7.827 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 7.447 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835 223.759 244.892 428.995 515.688 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 7.319 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 6.948 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 6.820 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288 100,249 8,595 73,098 945 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 6.650 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210 105,892 8,797 72,334 716 252.141 242.387 387.148 206.414 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 6.333 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082 96,988 7,647 61,573 267 243.594 222.256 347.606 81.261 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 5.912 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256 242.391 204.684 313.232 -78.107 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 5.578 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835 88,188 5,988 45,165 -554 223.951 175.974 257.809 -170.316 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 5.378 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754 93,299 6,018 42,712 -881 237.470 177.264 244.360 -271.293 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 5.098 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673 95,664 5,730 38,368 -1,245 243.131 168.536 219.184 -382.817 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 4.949 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619 93,620 5,349 33,189 -1,404 237.391 156.973 189.166 -430.817 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 4.748 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565 94,702 5,094 29,215 -1,626 236.922 147.483 164.289 -492.441 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 4.554 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519 98,907 4,976 26,143 -1,899 241.870 140.812 143.702 -562.014 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 4.453 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490 99,941 4,850 23,018 -1,982 241.931 135.855 125.245 -580.545 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 4.249 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447 98,616 4,411 18,444 -2,153 235.826 122.057 99.138 -622.992 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 4.114 2.776 1.426 1.259 0.419 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342 239.840 116.848 81.136 -658.250 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 3.910 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499 231.132 101.455 54.966 -680.974 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 3.734 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570 220.996 87.496 30.829 -680.948 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 3.627 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344 103,691 3,303 3,318 -2,670 223.231 82.290 16.057 -695.577 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 3.546 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330 101,898 3,063 769 -2,593 219.578 76.388 3.724 -676.328 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 3.476 2.442 1.264 0.980 0.318 100,445 2,855 -1,314 -2,537 220.513 72.533 -6.483 -673.996 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 3.259 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296 94,504 2,200 -5,720 -2,553 208.656 56.212 -28.389 -682.238 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 3.228 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295 97,205 2,209 -6,862 -2,527 217.890 57.297 -34.574 -685.436 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 3.068 2.246 1.162 0.851 0.285 95,619 1,804 -10,323 -2,568 220.653 48.187 -53.546 -717.157 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 2.995 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284 96,170 1,680 -12,209 -2,534 224.569 45.385 -64.081 -715.966 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 3.127 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295 103,462 2,239 -10,271 -2,373 251.183 62.916 -56.049 -697.328 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 2.966 2.228 1.165 0.805 0.284 105,414 1,771 -14,973 -3,395 257.923 54.481 -78.193 -745.370 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 2.946 2.232 1.172 0.797 0.283 108,072 2,079 -16,048 -3,323 266.580 57.161 -82.126 -735.059 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 2.881 2.203 1.164 0.778 0.279 111,336 2,251 -18,399 -3,012 276.925 56.859 -93.620 -751.647 12.46 1.51 -2.05 -6.13
1941 2.836 2.189 1.163 0.765 0.273 110,043 2,529 -17,754 -2,343 291.359 58.778 -103.076 -772.634 12.46 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 2.644 2.097 1.115 0.720 0.255 107,256 2,146 -20,590 -2,711 314.998 47.807 -141.712 -900.348 11.57 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 2.652 2.109 1.131 0.720 0.254 111,030 2,793 -20,379 -3,240 336.935 56.246 -146.454 -911.225 11.83 1.27 -2.67 -6.62
1944 2.744 2.157 1.174 0.739 0.260 118,496 3,726 -18,826 -3,641 342.681 70.727 -129.090 -832.105 12.52 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 2.715 2.142 1.177 0.732 0.256 123,101 3,729 -19,796 -4,912 346.362 72.085 -132.314 -818.393 12.48 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 2.665 2.123 1.174 0.719 0.243 123,820 3,397 -17,848 -3,811 415.419 84.284 -164.785 -973.058 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 2.617 2.102 1.171 0.709 0.235 124,513 3,474 -17,266 -3,658 469.417 93.084 -191.653 -1,082.406 12.22 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 2.675 2.135 1.202 0.723 0.236 131,382 4,282 -16,335 -3,627 473.073 104.869 -172.972 -997.963 12.71 2.08 -2.77 -7.13
1949 2.728 2.164 1.230 0.736 0.239 138,416 4,848 -15,918 -4,235 495.299 119.120 -162.385 -957.252 13.16 2.41 -2.66 -7.16
1950 2.731 2.167 1.242 0.739 0.237 137,850 4,993 -14,576 -4,958 512.720 126.138 -160.271 -935.621 13.29 2.55 -2.65 -7.23
1951 2.668 2.136 1.230 0.728 0.233 138,025 6,242 -14,805 -5,723 528.705 124.572 -172.515 -949.513 13.00 2.44 -2.78 -7.33
1952 2.649 2.126 1.233 0.728 0.234 140,634 6,710 -14,970 -6,496 551.532 129.858 -176.215 -940.389 12.95 2.49 -2.81 -7.38
1953 2.657 2.128 1.245 0.735 0.241 142,209 7,314 -14,423 -5,975 571.512 138.171 -171.097 -900.774 13.05 2.65 -2.76 -7.37
1954 2.612 2.105 1.239 0.730 0.244 143,490 7,105 -15,062 -8,853 589.483 138.927 -177.668 -889.422 12.82 2.60 -2.82 -7.41
1955 2.542 2.065 1.224 0.723 0.248 140,383 7,778 -15,464 -10,910 585.898 131.435 -181.998 -849.594 12.38 2.45 -2.92 -7.42
1956 2.494 2.035 1.216 0.721 0.260 138,157 7,813 -15,112 -10,401 591.348 128.525 -183.213 -801.780 12.07 2.37 -2.96 -7.37
1957 2.441 2.002 1.206 0.720 0.277 135,530 7,627 -14,686 -8,177 589.478 123.612 -181.855 -739.648 11.71 2.28 -2.99 -7.26
1958 2.396 1.978 1.199 0.720 0.290 134,146 7,170 -14,379 -10,509 582.440 118.479 -176.425 -673.568 11.44 2.21 -3.00 -7.20
1959 2.317 1.936 1.181 0.715 0.301 132,034 7,238 -14,655 -10,739 570.165 107.858 -176.953 -620.582 10.96 2.02 -3.07 -7.14
1960 2.205 1.883 1.152 0.701 0.310 126,532 6,116 -15,206 -9,802 550.821 91.126 -183.079 -576.762 10.34 1.70 -3.23 -7.12
1961 2.204 1.880 1.159 0.713 0.332 127,277 6,359 -14,359 -10,865 552.694 93.948 -168.974 -505.934 10.32 1.79 -3.12 -6.96
1962 2.170 1.865 1.156 0.717 0.345 128,133 6,440 -14,146 -8,911 545.592 90.374 -160.692 -451.227 10.16 1.75 -3.10 -6.89
1963 2.162 1.858 1.161 0.727 0.364 128,235 6,623 -13,277 -9,443 537.134 90.259 -146.546 -389.367 10.09 1.81 -3.00 -6.75
1964 2.117 1.839 1.153 0.727 0.379 128,671 6,575 -13,356 -9,933 522.670 83.892 -140.345 -345.060 9.87 1.73 -3.01 -6.64
1965 2.092 1.826 1.152 0.732 0.399 129,487 6,798 -12,969 -9,785 498.396 78.974 -127.570 -291.937 9.71 1.72 -2.95 -6.46
1966 2.067 1.813 1.150 0.737 0.418 129,904 8,093 -12,505 -7,627 479.268 74.723 -117.779 -250.640 9.56 1.70 -2.91 -6.28
1967 2.037 1.795 1.146 0.739 0.434 131,264 8,172 -12,337 -8,314 470.438 71.535 -112.131 -220.580 9.33 1.65 -2.88 -6.12
1968 2.015 1.783 1.145 0.741 0.443 130,249 8,685 -11,746 -7,918 467.151 69.950 -107.679 -198.227 9.19 1.63 -2.86 -6.02
1969 1.968 1.763 1.135 0.735 0.443 128,355 8,114 -11,541 -6,346 471.911 66.367 -110.283 -188.852 8.94 1.52 -2.92 -6.02
1970 1.912 1.737 1.122 0.728 0.446 125,885 7,154 -11,575 -5,791 473.115 61.114 -113.645 -178.683 8.63 1.37 -3.00 -5.99
1971 1.894 1.729 1.121 0.727 0.444 126,518 7,047 -11,555 -5,961 458.898 58.459 -107.615 -160.498 8.53 1.37 -3.01 -6.01
1972 1.880 1.722 1.122 0.727 0.440 128,323 7,805 -11,583 -6,437 433.215 54.957 -98.620 -140.203 8.44 1.37 -3.01 -6.04
1973 1.837 1.703 1.113 0.719 0.428 128,366 7,774 -11,491 -4,884 416.566 49.330 -96.833 -130.372 8.21 1.27 -3.10 -6.16
1974 1.802 1.689 1.106 0.712 0.417 127,004 7,331 -10,885 -3,059 413.541 46.209 -97.276 -125.008 8.04 1.19 -3.17 -6.28
1975 1.766 1.673 1.099 0.705 0.405 125,695 6,637 -10,869 -3,754 410.515 43.016 -97.836 -120.011 7.84 1.11 -3.24 -6.40
1976 1.728 1.656 1.090 0.697 0.392 123,605 6,378 -11,101 -4,254 410.897 39.734 -99.881 -117.161 7.64 1.02 -3.33 -6.54
1977 1.694 1.642 1.083 0.690 0.382 121,805 6,026 -11,115 -3,538 416.759 37.274 -102.778 -115.385 7.47 0.94 -3.41 -6.65
1978 1.674 1.633 1.080 0.686 0.366 121,709 5,951 -10,858 -3,338 422.920 36.345 -103.741 -113.121 7.37 0.90 -3.46 -6.82
1979 1.649 1.623 1.075 0.679 0.348 120,458 5,665 -10,242 -3,373 435.224 34.983 -107.300 -113.699 7.24 0.84 -3.53 -7.01
1980 1.603 1.603 1.063 0.670 0.331 121,237 4,823 -10,260 -3,966 447.289 30.891 -113.691 -115.861 7.01 0.71 -3.63 -7.20
1981 1.590 1.597 1.061 0.666 0.316 120,420 4,627 -10,160 -3,317 450.445 29.864 -113.124 -112.558 6.94 0.69 -3.67 -7.35
1982 1.576 1.591 1.059 0.663 0.304 120,276 4,491 -10,697 -3,722 454.029 28.798 -112.631 -109.055 6.87 0.66 -3.71 -7.49
1983 1.571 1.589 1.059 0.662 0.298 120,731 4,595 -11,179 -4,161 452.199 28.493 -109.350 -102.492 6.84 0.67 -3.72 -7.55
1984 1.566 1.586 1.059 0.662 0.296 120,892 4,850 -11,743 -4,001 456.509 28.487 -107.683 -97.195 6.81 0.67 -3.72 -7.57
1985 1.555 1.581 1.057 0.659 0.294 120,390 4,791 -12,353 -4,793 463.672 27.816 -107.674 -93.234 6.75 0.64 -3.75 -7.60
1986 1.546 1.578 1.056 0.657 0.288 120,690 4,905 -13,410 -5,328 467.153 27.034 -106.701 -88.916 6.71 0.63 -3.78 -7.65
1987 1.535 1.574 1.054 0.654 0.284 120,372 4,768 -13,897 -5,073 472.156 26.165 -106.246 -85.121 6.66 0.60 -3.81 -7.70
1988 1.526 1.570 1.052 0.652 0.283 120,000 4,676 -14,311 -5,338 481.580 25.729 -106.466 -81.917 6.62 0.59 -3.83 -7.72
1989 1.513 1.564 1.049 0.649 0.279 119,015 4,449 -14,709 -6,319 494.807 24.749 -108.277 -79.952 6.55 0.55 -3.86 -7.76
1990 1.502 1.560 1.047 0.646 0.277 119,874 4,232 -15,027 -5,487 505.621 24.070 -108.929 -77.194 6.50 0.53 -3.89 -7.78
1991 1.493 1.557 1.045 0.644 0.273 120,325 4,033 -15,712 -6,599 507.327 22.999 -107.559 -73.261 6.46 0.51 -3.92 -7.82
1992 1.488 1.555 1.045 0.643 0.273 121,401 4,073 -16,348 -6,538 505.596 22.583 -104.612 -68.511 6.44 0.51 -3.93 -7.82
1993 1.485 1.554 1.045 0.641 0.271 122,712 4,119 -16,993 -6,643 503.040 22.194 -101.537 -64.011 6.43 0.51 -3.94 -7.84
1994 1.479 1.552 1.044 0.640 0.270 123,832 4,178 -17,646 -6,219 501.707 21.617 -99.027 -60.020 6.40 0.50 -3.96 -7.86
1995 1.469 1.548 1.042 0.638 0.269 124,459 4,060 -18,366 -7,906 498.948 20.338 -96.938 -56.331 6.35 0.48 -3.99 -7.87
1996 1.464 1.546 1.042 0.636 0.268 125,514 4,099 -18,848 -8,910 501.319 20.076 -95.097 -53.105 6.33 0.47 -4.00 -7.87
1997 1.457 1.543 1.041 0.635 0.268 126,086 4,187 -19,613 -11,036 505.269 19.575 -93.876 -50.324 6.30 0.46 -4.02 -7.88
1998 1.448 1.540 1.039 0.633 0.268 126,300 4,214 -20,373 -13,176 508.826 18.775 -92.854 -47.735 6.26 0.44 -4.04 -7.88
1999 1.442 1.537 1.039 0.632 0.268 126,866 4,268 -20,851 -14,654 511.665 18.381 -91.307 -45.084 6.23 0.43 -4.05 -7.88
2000 1.428 1.531 1.035 0.629 0.268 126,176 4,007 -21,194 -12,130 525.937 17.303 -92.787 -43.873 6.16 0.40 -4.08 -7.88
2001 1.422 1.529 1.035 0.628 0.268 126,966 4,047 -21,911 -9,951 527.721 16.822 -91.069 -41.361 6.13 0.39 -4.09 -7.88
2002 1.418 1.527 1.034 0.627 0.268 127,940 4,047 -22,643 -10,285 530.599 16.655 -89.322 -39.010 6.11 0.39 -4.10 -7.88
2003 1.414 1.525 1.034 0.626 0.268 128,842 4,114 -23,130 -10,497 533.676 16.387 -87.720 -36.825 6.09 0.38 -4.11 -7.88
2004 1.409 1.523 1.034 0.626 0.268 129,769 4,164 -23,573 -10,693 537.573 16.203 -86.223 -34.803 6.07 0.38 -4.12 -7.88
2005 1.404 1.521 1.033 0.625 0.268 130,587 4,168 -23,988 -10,870 541.750 15.874 -84.898 -32.927 6.04 0.37 -4.13 -7.88
2006 1.396 1.518 1.032 0.623 0.268 131,072 4,052 -24,418 -11,041 545.294 15.144 -83.808 -31.199 6.00 0.36 -4.14 -7.88
2007 1.392 1.516 1.031 0.622 0.269 132,008 4,092 -24,798 -11,210 551.344 15.043 -82.634 -29.583 5.98 0.35 -4.15 -7.88
2008 1.388 1.515 1.031 0.622 0.269 132,934 4,115 -25,181 -11,377 557.903 14.899 -81.566 -28.079 5.96 0.35 -4.16 -7.88
2009 1.382 1.512 1.030 0.620 0.269 133,651 4,045 -25,580 -11,539 563.914 14.460 -80.629 -26.666 5.94 0.34 -4.17 -7.88
2010 1.378 1.511 1.030 0.620 0.269 134,626 4,055 -25,948 -11,694 571.012 14.322 -79.614 -25.324 5.92 0.34 -4.18 -7.88
2011 1.374 1.510 1.029 0.619 0.269 135,618 4,046 -26,324 -11,850 577.975 14.118 -78.610 -24.048 5.90 0.33 -4.19 -7.88
2012 1.372 1.509 1.029 0.618 0.268 136,784 4,087 -26,681 -12,003 585.398 14.089 -77.531 -22.828 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2013 1.371 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268 138,180 4,181 -27,022 -12,153 593.450 14.236 -76.387 -21.658 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2014 1.371 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268 139,853 4,357 -27,337 -12,301 602.374 14.652 -75.158 -20.541 5.90 0.34 -4.20 -7.89
2015 1.367 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.268 140,925 4,304 -27,713 -12,450 608.404 14.295 -74.084 -19.479 5.88 0.33 -4.21 -7.89
2016 1.366 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.267 142,480 4,404 -28,039 -12,590 616.279 14.446 -72.878 -18.461 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2017 1.365 1.508 1.030 0.616 0.267 143,986 4,468 -28,378 -12,733 623.702 14.469 -71.698 -17.495 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2018 1.366 1.509 1.031 0.616 0.266 145,858 4,641 -28,691 -12,877 632.512 14.836 -70.449 -16.577 5.89 0.35 -4.22 -7.91
2019 1.368 1.510 1.032 0.616 0.266 147,916 4,863 -28,997 -13,024 641.915 15.336 -69.177 -15.705 5.91 0.36 -4.22 -7.91
2020 1.366 1.510 1.032 0.615 0.264 149,434 4,866 -29,377 -13,184 648.690 15.137 -68.064 -14.886 5.91 0.36 -4.23 -7.93
2021 1.368 1.511 1.032 0.615 0.263 151,533 5,063 -29,709 -13,344 657.656 15.527 -66.812 -14.099 5.92 0.36 -4.23 -7.94
2022 1.371 1.514 1.034 0.615 0.262 153,891 5,335 -30,024 -13,506 667.394 16.131 -65.507 -13.348 5.95 0.38 -4.23 -7.95
2023 1.375 1.516 1.035 0.616 0.261 156,414 5,653 -30,335 -13,672 677.509 16.839 -64.178 -12.632 5.98 0.40 -4.23 -7.96
2024 1.380 1.518 1.037 0.616 0.260 158,994 5,980 -30,647 -13,840 687.590 17.542 -62.851 -11.951 6.01 0.42 -4.22 -7.97
2025 1.383 1.521 1.038 0.616 0.259 161,553 6,284 -30,975 -14,015 697.489 18.155 -61.569 -11.309 6.04 0.43 -4.22 -7.98
2026 1.387 1.523 1.040 0.616 0.258 164,093 6,577 -31,307 -14,189 707.219 18.709 -60.310 -10.698 6.06 0.45 -4.22 -7.99
2027 1.388 1.524 1.040 0.616 0.257 166,206 6,738 -31,659 -14,359 717.812 18.946 -59.336 -10.155 6.07 0.45 -4.22 -8.00
2028 1.388 1.525 1.040 0.616 0.256 168,221 6,860 -32,025 -14,529 728.097 19.064 -58.401 -9.639 6.08 0.45 -4.22 -8.01
2029 1.387 1.525 1.040 0.615 0.255 170,120 6,930 -32,414 -14,706 738.024 19.029 -57.521 -9.154 6.08 0.45 -4.23 -8.03
2030 1.385 1.525 1.040 0.614 0.253 171,881 6,939 -32,825 -14,888 747.505 18.832 -56.694 -8.696 6.08 0.45 -4.24 -8.04
2031 1.383 1.524 1.039 0.614 0.252 173,567 6,915 -33,249 -15,072 756.805 18.548 -55.899 -8.262 6.07 0.44 -4.25 -8.06
2032 1.379 1.523 1.038 0.613 0.251 175,080 6,824 -33,693 -15,258 765.470 18.088 -55.144 -7.849 6.06 0.43 -4.26 -8.07
2033 1.376 1.522 1.037 0.612 0.249 176,594 6,727 -34,140 -15,443 774.226 17.622 -54.398 -7.457 6.05 0.42 -4.27 -8.08
2034 1.372 1.521 1.036 0.610 0.248 178,099 6,614 -34,599 -15,633 783.012 17.122 -53.674 -7.086 6.04 0.41 -4.28 -8.10
2035 1.368 1.520 1.035 0.609 0.246 179,614 6,493 -35,067 -15,828 791.892 16.610 -52.964 -6.734 6.02 0.39 -4.29 -8.11
2036 1.365 1.519 1.034 0.608 0.245 181,176 6,381 -35,535 -16,023 801.005 16.131 -52.252 -6.399 6.01 0.38 -4.31 -8.13
2037 1.362 1.518 1.033 0.607 0.244 182,792 6,279 -36,003 -16,220 810.343 15.686 -51.539 -6.080 6.00 0.37 -4.32 -8.14
2038 1.359 1.517 1.032 0.606 0.242 184,481 6,194 -36,471 -16,417 819.973 15.290 -50.820 -5.775 5.99 0.36 -4.33 -8.16
2039 1.356 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.241 186,254 6,130 -36,937 -16,616 829.905 14.950 -50.094 -5.485 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.17
2040 1.354 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.240 188,121 6,088 -37,402 -16,817 840.162 14.669 -49.362 -5.208 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.18
2041 1.352 1.516 1.030 0.604 0.239 190,071 6,062 -37,871 -17,022 850.669 14.430 -48.628 -4.945 5.98 0.34 -4.35 -8.19
2042 1.351 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.238 192,121 6,066 -38,333 -17,227 861.484 14.263 -47.879 -4.693 5.98 0.34 -4.36 -8.20
2043 1.350 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.237 194,264 6,098 -38,789 -17,431 872.578 14.165 -47.117 -4.453 5.98 0.33 -4.36 -8.21
2044 1.350 1.516 1.030 0.602 0.236 196,497 6,152 -39,244 -17,638 883.938 14.115 -46.352 -4.224 5.98 0.33 -4.37 -8.22
2045 1.350 1.517 1.030 0.602 0.235 198,841 6,241 -39,692 -17,844 895.684 14.143 -45.576 -4.005 5.99 0.33 -4.37 -8.23
2046 1.351 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.234 201,260 6,344 -40,143 -18,053 907.696 14.199 -44.807 -3.797 6.00 0.34 -4.37 -8.24
2047 1.351 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.233 203,752 6,462 -40,597 -18,265 919.982 14.287 -44.043 -3.600 6.01 0.34 -4.38 -8.25
2048 1.352 1.519 1.030 0.601 0.232 206,303 6,590 -41,054 -18,481 932.503 14.391 -43.289 -3.414 6.02 0.34 -4.38 -8.26
2049 1.353 1.520 1.031 0.601 0.231 208,917 6,733 -41,511 -18,696 945.300 14.525 -42.540 -3.236 6.03 0.34 -4.38 -8.27
2050 1.354 1.521 1.031 0.601 0.231 211,549 6,882 -41,968 -18,913 958.198 14.664 -41.799 -3.067 6.04 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2051 1.355 1.522 1.031 0.601 0.230 214,226 7,033 -42,431 -19,132 971.327 14.806 -41.072 -2.907 6.05 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2052 1.356 1.523 1.032 0.601 0.229 216,932 7,187 -42,897 -19,351 984.654 14.949 -40.357 -2.755 6.06 0.36 -4.38 -8.29
2053 1.356 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228 219,642 7,327 -43,378 -19,577 998.077 15.059 -39.665 -2.612 6.07 0.36 -4.39 -8.30
2054 1.357 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228 222,366 7,467 -43,860 -19,802 1,011.664 15.165 -38.984 -2.476 6.08 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2055 1.358 1.525 1.032 0.600 0.227 225,090 7,598 -44,349 -20,029 1,025.378 15.252 -38.320 -2.347 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2056 1.358 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226 227,787 7,709 -44,850 -20,258 1,039.106 15.295 -37.676 -2.225 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.32
2057 1.358 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226 230,451 7,792 -45,367 -20,492 1,052.838 15.283 -37.056 -2.110 6.10 0.36 -4.39 -8.33
2058 1.357 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.225 233,090 7,846 -45,904 -20,732 1,066.605 15.215 -36.461 -2.002 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.33
2059 1.356 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224 235,697 7,868 -46,462 -20,979 1,080.379 15.087 -35.891 -1.899 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.34
2060 1.355 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224 238,268 7,864 -47,036 -21,230 1,094.129 14.911 -35.340 -1.802 6.10 0.35 -4.41 -8.35
2061 1.354 1.526 1.031 0.598 0.223 240,821 7,840 -47,623 -21,485 1,107.918 14.702 -34.803 -1.710 6.10 0.35 -4.42 -8.36
2062 1.352 1.526 1.031 0.597 0.222 243,372 7,807 -48,214 -21,741 1,121.805 14.481 -34.275 -1.623 6.09 0.34 -4.42 -8.37
2063 1.350 1.525 1.030 0.597 0.221 245,929 7,764 -48,815 -21,998 1,135.799 14.245 -33.757 -1.540 6.09 0.34 -4.43 -8.37
2064 1.349 1.525 1.030 0.596 0.221 248,511 7,719 -49,422 -22,257 1,149.970 14.010 -33.246 -1.462 6.08 0.33 -4.43 -8.38
2065 1.347 1.524 1.029 0.596 0.220 251,125 7,670 -50,038 -22,520 1,164.326 13.771 -32.744 -1.387 6.08 0.33 -4.44 -8.38
2066 1.346 1.524 1.029 0.595 0.220 253,796 7,639 -50,651 -22,782 1,178.966 13.567 -32.241 -1.316 6.08 0.32 -4.44 -8.39
2067 1.345 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219 256,508 7,619 -51,262 -23,043 1,193.800 13.386 -31.739 -1.248 6.07 0.32 -4.45 -8.39
2068 1.344 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219 259,274 7,617 -51,867 -23,303 1,208.866 13.239 -31.235 -1.184 6.07 0.31 -4.45 -8.40
2069 1.343 1.524 1.028 0.594 0.219 262,098 7,633 -52,470 -23,563 1,224.182 13.123 -30.732 -1.122 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2070 1.342 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218 264,997 7,664 -53,074 -23,825 1,239.816 13.035 -30.231 -1.064 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2071 1.342 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218 267,981 7,714 -53,681 -24,089 1,255.816 12.978 -29.734 -1.009 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2072 1.341 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218 271,032 7,775 -54,292 -24,356 1,272.094 12.938 -29.243 -0.956 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2073 1.341 1.524 1.027 0.593 0.218 274,148 7,846 -54,909 -24,626 1,288.647 12.913 -28.756 -0.906 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2074 1.341 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217 277,380 7,943 -55,527 -24,899 1,305.724 12.929 -28.274 -0.859 6.08 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2075 1.342 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217 280,697 8,061 -56,145 -25,173 1,323.197 12.979 -27.795 -0.814 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2076 1.342 1.526 1.027 0.593 0.217 284,045 8,177 -56,773 -25,450 1,340.816 13.020 -27.325 -0.771 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2077 1.342 1.526 1.028 0.593 0.217 287,500 8,303 -57,413 -25,734 1,358.958 13.076 -26.864 -0.731 6.10 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2078 1.343 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217 291,043 8,431 -58,073 -26,026 1,377.546 13.130 -26.417 -0.693 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2079 1.343 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217 294,495 8,611 -58,665 -26,294 1,395.753 13.263 -25.944 -0.656 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2080 1.344 1.528 1.028 0.593 0.217 298,269 8,819 -59,306 -26,585 1,413.836 13.415 -25.467 -0.621 6.12 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2081 1.345 1.529 1.028 0.593 0.217 301,867 8,962 -59,963 -26,877 1,432.843 13.483 -25.033 -0.589 6.13 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2082 1.345 1.529 1.029 0.593 0.217 305,498 9,104 -60,627 -27,172 1,452.130 13.546 -24.608 -0.558 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2083 1.346 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217 309,127 9,232 -61,303 -27,471 1,471.536 13.586 -24.193 -0.529 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2084 1.346 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217 312,820 9,371 -61,984 -27,773 1,491.383 13.639 -23.785 -0.501 6.15 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2085 1.346 1.531 1.029 0.593 0.216 316,533 9,503 -62,674 -28,078 1,511.464 13.682 -23.386 -0.475 6.15 0.33 -4.47 -8.42
2086 1.346 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216 320,166 9,592 -63,384 -28,387 1,531.287 13.660 -23.000 -0.450 6.16 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2087 1.346 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216 323,824 9,675 -64,103 -28,699 1,551.346 13.631 -22.620 -0.427 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2088 1.345 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216 327,494 9,748 -64,833 -29,015 1,571.575 13.586 -22.249 -0.404 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2089 1.345 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216 331,186 9,815 -65,574 -29,335 1,592.011 13.533 -21.885 -0.383 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2090 1.345 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216 334,914 9,880 -66,323 -29,659 1,612.701 13.476 -21.528 -0.363 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2091 1.344 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216 338,675 9,940 -67,083 -29,986 1,633.625 13.414 -21.176 -0.345 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2092 1.344 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.216 342,475 10,001 -67,851 -30,317 1,654.805 13.351 -20.831 -0.327 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2093 1.343 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215 346,330 10,064 -68,628 -30,652 1,676.294 13.292 -20.491 -0.310 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2094 1.343 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215 350,238 10,131 -69,414 -30,991 1,698.078 13.236 -20.156 -0.294 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2095 1.343 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215 354,205 10,203 -70,208 -31,333 1,720.170 13.187 -19.826 -0.278 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2096 1.342 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215 358,236 10,281 -71,010 -31,680 1,742.582 13.144 -19.500 -0.264 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2097 1.342 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215 362,329 10,364 -71,820 -32,031 1,765.290 13.107 -19.178 -0.250 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2098 1.342 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215 366,505 10,461 -72,637 -32,386 1,788.384 13.085 -18.861 -0.237 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2099 1.342 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215 370,747 10,563 -73,463 -32,745 1,811.795 13.069 -18.547 -0.225 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2100 1.342 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.214 375,060 10,674 -74,297 -33,108 1,835.552 13.062 -18.238 -0.213 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
SOURCE: Author's calculations.

Appendix C.

This appendix presents OASI money's worth and redistributional measures of lifetime outcomes by birth cohort as simulated under the balanced budget tax rate adjustment policy. As discussed in the text, this stylized policy brings the program into long-run financial balance consistent with the underlying Trustees Report projections.

Table C–1 OASI money's worth and redistributional measures under the tax adjustment policy, by birth cohort
Birth
cohort
Real
internal
rate of
return
(percent)
Lifetime benefit/tax ratio Lifetime net transfer per initial cohort
member evaluated as of the initial cohort
year in constant (2001) dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
evaluated as of year-end 2001
in billions of dollars
Aggregate lifetime net transfer
as a percent of
aggregate lifetime taxable earnings
Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption Interest rate assumption
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Zero
real
Tax
base
growth
Trust
fund
Large
company
stock
Pre–1901 18.367 12.037 6.093 12.037 3.207 31,365 6,478 36,760 2,165 1,637.203 3,912.972 4,313.035 13,676.469 34.97 13.39 35.27 5.12
1901 10.868 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 10.481 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 10.329 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 9.881 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 9.444 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 9.061 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 8.950 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 8.583 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 8.170 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 7.918 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 7.827 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 7.447 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835 223.758 244.892 428.995 515.688 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 7.319 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 6.948 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 6.820 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288 100,249 8,595 73,098 945 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 6.650 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210 105,891 8,797 72,334 716 252.140 242.386 387.148 206.414 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 6.333 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082 96,988 7,647 61,573 267 243.593 222.255 347.605 81.261 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 5.912 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256 242.390 204.683 313.231 -78.108 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 5.578 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835 88,187 5,988 45,165 -554 223.950 175.973 257.808 -170.316 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 5.378 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754 93,298 6,018 42,712 -881 237.468 177.263 244.359 -271.294 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 5.098 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673 95,663 5,730 38,367 -1,245 243.129 168.535 219.183 -382.818 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 4.949 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619 93,619 5,349 33,189 -1,404 237.389 156.971 189.164 -430.819 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 4.748 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565 94,701 5,094 29,215 -1,626 236.920 147.481 164.287 -492.442 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 4.554 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519 98,906 4,976 26,143 -1,899 241.867 140.810 143.700 -562.016 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 4.453 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490 99,940 4,850 23,017 -1,982 241.929 135.853 125.243 -580.546 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 4.249 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447 98,616 4,411 18,443 -2,153 235.825 122.056 99.136 -622.994 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 4.114 2.775 1.426 1.259 0.419 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342 239.839 116.846 81.134 -658.252 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 3.910 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499 231.133 101.454 54.964 -680.976 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 3.734 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570 220.997 87.495 30.828 -680.950 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 3.627 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344 103,692 3,303 3,318 -2,670 223.233 82.290 16.055 -695.580 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 3.546 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330 101,899 3,063 769 -2,593 219.582 76.388 3.722 -676.331 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 3.476 2.441 1.264 0.980 0.318 100,447 2,855 -1,314 -2,537 220.518 72.534 -6.485 -673.999 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 3.259 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296 94,506 2,200 -5,721 -2,553 208.662 56.213 -28.392 -682.243 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 3.228 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295 97,208 2,209 -6,863 -2,527 217.896 57.297 -34.578 -685.442 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 3.068 2.245 1.162 0.851 0.285 95,621 1,804 -10,324 -2,568 220.657 48.184 -53.553 -717.165 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 2.994 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284 96,172 1,679 -12,210 -2,534 224.573 45.381 -64.090 -715.976 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 3.127 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295 103,463 2,239 -10,273 -2,373 251.186 62.909 -56.061 -697.341 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 2.965 2.227 1.165 0.805 0.284 105,414 1,770 -14,976 -3,395 257.922 54.469 -78.210 -745.387 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 2.945 2.231 1.171 0.797 0.283 108,069 2,078 -16,053 -3,323 266.573 57.141 -82.150 -735.081 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 2.881 2.202 1.164 0.778 0.279 111,325 2,250 -18,406 -3,012 276.898 56.823 -93.658 -751.679 12.46 1.51 -2.06 -6.13
1941 2.835 2.188 1.163 0.765 0.273 110,026 2,527 -17,763 -2,343 291.312 58.725 -103.131 -772.675 12.45 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 2.643 2.095 1.115 0.720 0.255 107,231 2,143 -20,601 -2,711 314.923 47.728 -141.789 -900.405 11.56 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 2.651 2.107 1.131 0.720 0.254 110,995 2,788 -20,394 -3,241 336.829 56.140 -146.556 -911.298 11.83 1.26 -2.67 -6.62
1944 2.743 2.154 1.173 0.738 0.260 118,447 3,719 -18,845 -3,642 342.539 70.591 -129.215 -832.191 12.51 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 2.714 2.140 1.177 0.731 0.256 123,076 3,725 -19,811 -4,912 346.290 71.991 -132.414 -818.471 12.47 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 2.665 2.120 1.174 0.720 0.243 123,844 3,396 -17,855 -3,811 415.501 84.271 -164.844 -973.135 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 2.617 2.100 1.170 0.709 0.235 124,602 3,478 -17,265 -3,658 469.750 93.207 -191.642 -1,082.475 12.23 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 2.676 2.133 1.202 0.723 0.236 131,563 4,295 -16,324 -3,627 473.723 105.172 -172.858 -998.009 12.73 2.09 -2.77 -7.13
1949 2.737 2.166 1.233 0.738 0.239 139,227 4,918 -15,813 -4,234 498.200 120.861 -161.316 -956.923 13.24 2.44 -2.65 -7.16
1950 2.752 2.176 1.249 0.744 0.238 139,613 5,153 -14,341 -4,953 519.277 130.183 -157.691 -934.719 13.46 2.63 -2.61 -7.23
1951 2.702 2.153 1.241 0.736 0.235 140,904 6,582 -14,435 -5,714 539.734 131.359 -168.194 -948.002 13.27 2.58 -2.71 -7.32
1952 2.699 2.152 1.250 0.738 0.237 144,920 7,241 -14,419 -6,481 568.341 140.127 -169.729 -938.157 13.34 2.69 -2.71 -7.36
1953 2.733 2.169 1.272 0.751 0.245 148,698 8,153 -13,582 -5,952 597.590 154.023 -161.128 -897.361 13.64 2.96 -2.60 -7.35
1954 2.712 2.160 1.274 0.752 0.248 152,313 8,220 -13,912 -8,808 625.728 160.733 -164.105 -884.893 13.61 3.01 -2.61 -7.37
1955 2.668 2.133 1.268 0.749 0.254 151,386 9,391 -14,045 -10,841 631.822 158.696 -165.294 -844.219 13.35 2.96 -2.65 -7.37
1956 2.645 2.117 1.268 0.753 0.266 151,360 9,823 -13,468 -10,321 647.859 161.588 -163.282 -795.625 13.23 2.98 -2.64 -7.32
1957 2.618 2.096 1.267 0.757 0.285 150,919 10,006 -12,841 -8,103 656.410 162.178 -159.009 -732.904 13.04 2.99 -2.61 -7.19
1958 2.598 2.084 1.269 0.763 0.299 151,852 9,809 -12,311 -10,398 659.318 162.088 -151.052 -666.422 12.95 3.03 -2.57 -7.12
1959 2.546 2.056 1.260 0.762 0.312 152,397 10,532 -12,333 -10,609 658.099 156.945 -148.912 -613.065 12.65 2.94 -2.59 -7.06
1960 2.460 2.014 1.239 0.754 0.322 149,202 9,753 -12,684 -9,671 649.508 145.311 -152.717 -569.042 12.19 2.71 -2.70 -7.03
1961 2.485 2.024 1.255 0.772 0.346 152,494 10,365 -11,593 -10,696 662.196 153.128 -136.415 -498.062 12.37 2.92 -2.52 -6.85
1962 2.476 2.021 1.260 0.781 0.360 156,212 10,972 -11,123 -8,755 665.151 153.964 -126.353 -443.349 12.38 2.99 -2.44 -6.77
1963 2.493 2.027 1.274 0.797 0.381 159,014 11,575 -10,037 -9,254 666.056 157.738 -110.787 -381.593 12.51 3.17 -2.27 -6.61
1964 2.472 2.020 1.274 0.802 0.397 162,548 12,129 -9,849 -9,715 660.279 154.765 -103.496 -337.484 12.47 3.19 -2.22 -6.50
1965 2.471 2.018 1.282 0.814 0.419 166,481 13,006 -9,232 -9,547 640.784 151.096 -90.816 -284.826 12.49 3.28 -2.10 -6.30
1966 2.470 2.016 1.288 0.823 0.439 169,967 16,070 -8,598 -7,423 627.075 148.374 -80.981 -243.943 12.51 3.37 -2.00 -6.11
1967 2.463 2.008 1.291 0.831 0.457 174,896 16,924 -8,212 -8,074 626.810 148.152 -74.640 -214.205 12.44 3.42 -1.92 -5.94
1968 2.463 2.005 1.298 0.838 0.468 176,535 18,617 -7,564 -7,675 633.160 149.943 -69.342 -192.146 12.45 3.50 -1.84 -5.84
1969 2.437 1.995 1.294 0.837 0.469 177,245 18,528 -7,358 -6,148 651.662 151.548 -70.314 -182.959 12.35 3.47 -1.86 -5.83
1970 2.400 1.977 1.287 0.833 0.473 177,350 17,698 -7,366 -5,609 666.536 151.198 -72.315 -173.077 12.15 3.40 -1.91 -5.80
1971 2.403 1.979 1.294 0.837 0.472 181,294 18,016 -7,170 -5,772 657.580 149.446 -66.782 -155.405 12.22 3.49 -1.87 -5.82
1972 2.409 1.980 1.302 0.842 0.470 186,936 20,457 -6,993 -6,233 631.091 144.047 -59.537 -135.756 12.30 3.60 -1.82 -5.85
1973 2.383 1.969 1.298 0.838 0.459 190,494 21,835 -6,955 -4,737 618.179 138.551 -58.607 -126.452 12.19 3.57 -1.88 -5.98
1974 2.364 1.961 1.297 0.835 0.449 191,827 21,902 -6,583 -2,972 624.611 138.053 -58.836 -121.476 12.14 3.57 -1.92 -6.10
1975 2.344 1.952 1.295 0.831 0.438 193,317 21,209 -6,584 -3,656 631.366 137.467 -59.268 -116.892 12.06 3.56 -1.96 -6.23
1976 2.321 1.941 1.291 0.826 0.426 193,659 22,092 -6,768 -4,155 643.778 137.629 -60.893 -114.432 11.98 3.53 -2.03 -6.39
1977 2.302 1.933 1.289 0.822 0.417 194,313 22,603 -6,809 -3,466 664.848 139.803 -62.959 -113.016 11.92 3.51 -2.09 -6.51
1978 2.295 1.930 1.290 0.820 0.402 197,134 23,382 -6,642 -3,280 685.012 142.813 -63.454 -111.156 11.93 3.54 -2.12 -6.70
1979 2.282 1.925 1.289 0.816 0.385 198,186 23,826 -6,297 -3,326 716.062 147.125 -65.974 -112.122 11.92 3.54 -2.17 -6.91
1980 2.247 1.908 1.280 0.808 0.368 203,233 23,341 -6,430 -3,928 749.803 149.494 -71.248 -114.757 11.74 3.45 -2.28 -7.13
1981 2.244 1.907 1.281 0.807 0.354 204,589 23,423 -6,367 -3,298 765.285 151.183 -70.898 -111.903 11.79 3.48 -2.30 -7.31
1982 2.240 1.905 1.282 0.806 0.343 206,951 23,812 -6,716 -3,715 781.221 152.704 -70.715 -108.848 11.82 3.51 -2.33 -7.47
1983 2.241 1.905 1.285 0.806 0.337 209,774 24,603 -7,014 -4,171 785.712 152.569 -68.609 -102.738 11.89 3.56 -2.33 -7.57
1984 2.243 1.905 1.287 0.807 0.336 212,074 26,275 -7,370 -4,029 800.829 154.343 -67.587 -97.870 11.95 3.61 -2.34 -7.62
1985 2.237 1.902 1.287 0.805 0.333 213,435 26,950 -7,795 -4,850 822.026 156.481 -67.945 -94.343 11.97 3.62 -2.36 -7.69
1986 2.233 1.901 1.287 0.804 0.328 216,140 28,551 -8,509 -5,418 836.610 157.359 -67.701 -90.414 12.01 3.65 -2.40 -7.78
1987 2.227 1.899 1.287 0.802 0.324 217,771 28,896 -8,877 -5,184 854.200 158.569 -67.865 -86.991 12.05 3.66 -2.43 -7.87
1988 2.222 1.897 1.287 0.801 0.322 219,163 29,303 -9,200 -5,484 879.541 161.235 -68.442 -84.158 12.08 3.68 -2.46 -7.93
1989 2.212 1.893 1.285 0.798 0.319 219,599 29,593 -9,553 -6,526 912.984 164.618 -70.320 -82.581 12.09 3.67 -2.51 -8.01
1990 2.205 1.890 1.284 0.795 0.316 223,297 29,434 -9,840 -5,699 941.851 167.403 -71.330 -80.174 12.11 3.68 -2.55 -8.08
1991 2.198 1.888 1.283 0.793 0.313 226,211 29,299 -10,376 -6,892 953.776 167.102 -71.034 -76.506 12.14 3.69 -2.59 -8.16
1992 2.196 1.887 1.284 0.793 0.312 230,057 29,962 -10,853 -6,865 958.118 166.116 -69.450 -71.945 12.21 3.72 -2.61 -8.22
1993 2.194 1.887 1.285 0.792 0.310 234,223 30,563 -11,352 -7,015 960.164 164.665 -67.828 -67.593 12.27 3.75 -2.63 -8.28
1994 2.190 1.885 1.285 0.791 0.308 238,127 31,579 -11,878 -6,604 964.774 163.402 -66.661 -63.738 12.31 3.77 -2.67 -8.34
1995 2.180 1.881 1.283 0.788 0.307 241,340 32,186 -12,498 -8,445 967.517 161.225 -65.968 -60.173 12.32 3.77 -2.71 -8.41
1996 2.176 1.879 1.283 0.787 0.306 245,116 32,915 -12,922 -9,573 979.021 161.194 -65.199 -57.054 12.37 3.79 -2.74 -8.46
1997 2.170 1.876 1.282 0.785 0.306 248,079 34,533 -13,568 -11,927 994.132 161.440 -64.944 -54.385 12.40 3.80 -2.78 -8.51
1998 2.160 1.871 1.280 0.783 0.305 250,339 36,175 -14,253 -14,326 1,008.545 161.167 -64.963 -51.902 12.40 3.79 -2.82 -8.57
1999 2.154 1.868 1.279 0.781 0.305 253,136 37,362 -14,727 -16,029 1,020.928 160.908 -64.491 -49.315 12.43 3.80 -2.86 -8.62
2000 2.139 1.860 1.274 0.778 0.304 253,778 37,842 -15,188 -13,351 1,057.816 163.391 -66.491 -48.291 12.39 3.77 -2.92 -8.68
2001 2.131 1.856 1.273 0.776 0.303 256,991 39,113 -15,866 -11,021 1,068.153 162.571 -65.945 -45.806 12.41 3.77 -2.96 -8.73
2002 2.125 1.853 1.272 0.775 0.303 260,414 39,405 -16,557 -11,460 1,079.998 162.158 -65.313 -43.467 12.44 3.78 -3.00 -8.78
2003 2.117 1.849 1.270 0.773 0.302 263,591 40,538 -17,105 -11,770 1,091.816 161.479 -64.871 -41.290 12.45 3.78 -3.04 -8.84
2004 2.110 1.845 1.269 0.771 0.302 266,803