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| Actuarial Publications |
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program |
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Description of Proposed Provisions:
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Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2015 Trustees Report
| Printer-friendly Version (PDF) |
| Change from present law [percent of payroll] |
Shortfall eliminated | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
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| Present law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 2.68 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.65 percent of payroll. | ||||||
| C1.1 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 68.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.34 | 0.71 | 13% | 15% | |
| C1.2 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 2 months per year until the NRA reaches 68.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick) |
0.43 | 0.71 | 16% | 15% | |
| C1.3 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years
(life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume
the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) | memo (AARP) | memo (Ryan 2008) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.48 | 1.55 | 18% | 33% | |
| C1.4 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase the NRA 2 months per year until it reaches 69 for individuals
attaining age 62 in 2034. Thereafter, increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
1.01 | 2.21 | 38% | 48% | |
| C1.5 |
Starting in 2016, allow workers to choose whether to have their payroll tax
rate reduced by 2 percentage points. For each calendar year that a worker
chooses to have their payroll tax reduced, their normal retirement age (NRA)
increases 1 month. We assume 2/3 of workers each year will choose this payroll
reduction. The General Fund of the Treasury reimburses the OASI and DI Trust
Funds for the reduction in payroll tax revenue.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Landry) |
0.66 | 1.27 | 25% | 27% | |
| C2.1 |
Increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by two months per year for those
age 62 starting in 2017 and ending in 2034 (EEA reaches 65 for those age 62
in 2034).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
-0.06 | -0.43 | -2% | -9% | |
| C2.2 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years
(life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume
the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, raise the earliest
eligibility age (EEA) for retired-workers, aged widow(er)s, and disabled
widow(er)s by the same amount as the NRA starting for those attaining EEA
in 2017.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.48 | 1.45 | 18% | 31% | |
| C2.3 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life
expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA
will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility
age (EEA) by the same amount as the NRA starting for those age 62 in 2022 so
as to maintain a 5 year difference between the two ages. Include a "hardship
exemption" with no EEA/NRA change for a worker with 25 years of earnings (with
4 quarters of coverage each), and average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) less
than 250 percent of the poverty level (wage-indexed from 2014). The hardship
exemption is phased out for those with AIME above 400 percent of the poverty
level.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
0.39 | 1.22 | 15% | 26% | |
| C2.4 |
After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022,
increase both the NRA and the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by 36/47 of a
month per year until the NRA and EEA reach 70 and 65 respectively. For each
year, the computed NRA and EEA round down to the next lower full month.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Lummis) |
0.69 | 1.79 | 26% | 39% | |
| C2.5 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year starting for those
age 62 in 2017 until the NRA reaches 70 in 2032. Thereafter, index the NRA to
maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA)
to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month
every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) from 62 to 64
at the same time the NRA increases from 67 to 69; that is, for those attaining
age 62 in 2021 through 2028. Keep EEA at 64 thereafter.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Graham, Paul, Lee) |
1.39 | 2.78 | 52% | 60% | |
| C2.6 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age (EEA)
for those age 62 in 2020-21 to 68 and 63, respectively, and then by 3 months per
year in 2022-25 to 69 and 64, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison) |
0.88 | 1.18 | 33% | 25% | |
| C2.7 |
Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age (EEA)
for those age 62 starting in 2016 by 3 months per year until EEA reaches 64 in
2023 and NRA reaches 69 in 2027.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison) |
0.84 | 1.18 | 32% | 25% | |
| C2.8 |
Starting in 2018, convert all disabled-worker beneficiaries to retired-worker status
upon attainment of their earliest eligibility age (EEA) rather than their normal
retirement age (NRA). After conversion, apply the early retirement reduction for
retirement at EEA (currently about 26.67 percent for those age 62 in 2018) phased in
over 40 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.44 | 0.85 | 16% | 18% | |
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