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| Actuarial Publications |
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program |
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Description of Proposed Provisions:
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Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report
| Printer-friendly Version (PDF) |
| Change from present law | Results with this provision | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
|||
| Present Law, Alternative II. |
-2.72 | -4.77 | ||||
| E1.1 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 15.3 percent in 2014
and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
2.75 | 2.87 | 0.04 | -1.89 | |
| E1.2 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 15.2 percent in 2026-2055,
and to 18.0 percent in years 2056 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
2.93 | 5.44 | 0.21 | 0.67 | |
| E1.3 |
Reduce the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 11.4 percent in 2014 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
-0.97 | -1.01 | -3.69 | -5.78 | |
| E1.4 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1
percentage point each year from 2019-2038, until the rate reaches
14.4 percent in 2038 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
1.42 | 1.99 | -1.30 | -2.78 | |
| E1.5 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 percent in 2016,
12.9 percent in 2024, 13.1 in percent in 2034, 13.9 percent in 2044, 13.5 percent
in 2054, and 13.3 percent in 2064 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.74 | 0.91 | -1.98 | -3.86 | |
| E1.6 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 percent in 2016,
12.9 percent in 2024, 13.3 in percent in 2034, 13.8 percent in 2044, 14.4 percent
in 2064, and 14.5 percent in 2079 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
1.04 | 2.07 | -1.68 | -2.70 | |
| E1.7 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.7 percent in 2016,
13.0 percent in 2029, 13.3 in percent in 2044, 14.0 percent in 2064, 14.5 percent
in 2074, and 14.7 percent in 2084 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.85 | 2.25 | -1.87 | -2.52 | |
| E1.8 |
Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each
year from 2016-2021, until the rate reaches 13.0 percent for 2021 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore) |
0.53 | 0.60 | -2.19 | -4.16 | |
| E2.1 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2014 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent
payroll tax rate to all earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above
the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
2.35 | 2.48 | -0.37 | -2.29 | |
| E2.2 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2014 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent
payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the
current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.91 | 1.61 | -0.81 | -3.15 | |
| E2.3 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2014 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent
payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the
current-law taxable maximum, adding a bend point at the current-law taxable maximum
and applying a formula factor of 3 percent for AIME above this new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
2.15 | 2.17 | -0.56 | -2.60 | |
| E2.4 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum for years 2020 and later (phased in
2014-2019), and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all
earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law
taxable maximum that were taxed after 2013, using a secondary PIA
formula. This secondary PIA formula uses: (1) an "AIME+" derived
from annual earnings from each year after 2013 that were in excess
of that year's current-law taxable maximum; (2) a bend point equal
to 134 percent higher of the monthly current-law taxable maximum;
and (3) formula factors of 3 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Deutch) |
2.18 | 2.36 | -0.54 | -2.40 | |
| E2.5 |
Apply 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2014, and tax all
earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do not provide benefit credit
for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders) | memo (DeFazio) |
2.14 | 2.48 | -0.57 | -2.29 | |
| E2.6 |
Apply a 3 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law taxable maximum starting in 2014.
Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
0.61 | 0.64 | -2.11 | -4.13 | |
| E2.7 |
Apply a 6 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law taxable maximum starting in 2014.
Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Wexler) |
1.19 | 1.25 | -1.53 | -3.51 | |
| E2.8 |
Apply a 2 percent payroll tax on earnings above the current-law taxable maximum for years 2016-2063,
and a 3 percent rate for years 2064 and later. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the
current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.44 | 0.63 | -2.28 | -4.13 | |
| E2.9 |
Apply the following payroll tax rates above the current-law taxable maximum: 2.0 percent in
2016, 3.0 percent in 2029, 3.5 percent in 2044, 4.5 percent in 2054, and 5.5 percent in 2064
and later. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.70 | 1.14 | -2.02 | -3.62 | |
| E2.10 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2024 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all
earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at: 1.24 percent in 2015, 2.48 percent in 2016,
and so on, up to 11.16 percent in 2023. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law
taxable maximum, adding a bend point at the current-law taxable maximum and applying a formula
factor of 5 percent for AIME above this new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Harkin 2012) |
1.92 | 2.07 | -0.80 | -2.70 | |
| E2.11 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2019 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all
earnings above the current law taxable maximum at: 2.48 percent in 2015, 4.96 percent in
2016, and so on, up to 12.40 percent in 2019. Credit the additional earnings for benefit
purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting
only earnings taxed above the current law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 5 percent factor
on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this
second component to the current-law PIA.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Harkin 2013) |
2.09 | 2.17 | -0.63 | -2.60 | |
| E2.12 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2025 and later. Phase in
elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable
maximum at: 1.24 percent in 2016, 2.48 percent in 2017, and so on,
up to 11.16 percent in 2024. Provide benefit credit for earnings
above the current-law taxable maximum, adding a bend point at the
current law taxable maximum and applying a formula factor of 3
percent for AIME above the new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore) |
1.92 | 2.17 | -0.80 | -2.60 | |
| E2.13 |
Apply OASDI payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in
2015, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum
exceeds $400,000. Credit the additional earnings for benefit
purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly
earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current
law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 2 percent factor on this newly
computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c)
adding this second component to the current-law PIA.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson) |
1.83 | 2.35 | -0.89 | -2.42 | |
| E3.1 |
Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would
be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2014-2023). Provide
benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum
levels.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.77 | 0.64 | -1.95 | -4.13 | |
| E3.2 |
Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the
payroll tax (phased in 2014-2023). Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings
taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick) |
0.98 | 1.11 | -1.74 | -3.66 | |
| E3.3 |
Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the
payroll tax (phased in 2015-2020). Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised
taxable maximum levels.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
0.78 | 0.64 | -1.94 | -4.13 | |
| E3.4 |
Increase the taxable maximum from $106,800 to $115,200 (in 2009 AWI-indexed dollars),
phased in 2014-2016. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable
maximum levels.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.11 | 0.08 | -2.61 | -4.69 | |
| E3.5 |
Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2014 until
taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings
up to the revised taxable maximum levels.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
0.62 | 0.67 | -2.10 | -4.10 | |
| E3.6 |
Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2016 until
taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for
additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.72 | 1.10 | -1.99 | -3.66 | |
| E3.7 |
Increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year beginning in 2015 until
taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings
up to the revised taxable maximum levels. Create a new bend point equal to the current-law
taxable maximum with a 5 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
0.63 | 0.77 | -2.09 | -3.99 | |
| E3.8 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $200,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Provide
proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.20 | 0.16 | -2.52 | -4.61 | |
| E3.9 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $200,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Do not
provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.25 | 0.31 | -2.46 | -4.46 | |
| E3.10 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $300,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Provide
proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.15 | 0.12 | -2.57 | -4.65 | |
| E3.11 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $300,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Do not
provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.19 | 0.23 | -2.53 | -4.54 | |
| E3.12 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $400,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Provide
proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.12 | 0.10 | -2.60 | -4.67 | |
| E3.13 |
Beginning in 2021, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed
equivalent of $400,000 in 2017, with the threshold wage-indexed after 2021. Do not
provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates) |
0.16 | 0.19 | -2.56 | -4.58 | |
| E3.14 |
Eliminate the taxable maximum for the employer payroll tax (6.2 percent) beginning in
2014. For the employee payroll tax (6.2 percent) and for benefit calculation purposes,
beginning in 2014, increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year until
taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
1.43 | 1.39 | -1.29 | -3.38 | |
| E3.15 |
Increase the taxable maximum until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings
(phased in 2014-2023). In addition, apply a tax rate of 6.2 percent for earnings above
the revised taxable maximum (phased in from 2014-2023). Provide benefit credit on earnings
taxed up to the revised taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Senate Special Committee on Aging) |
1.40 | 1.35 | -1.32 | -3.42 | |
| E3.16 |
Beginning in 2015, apply 4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 in 2015,
with the threshold wage-indexed after 2015. Provide benefit credit for additional
earnings taxed, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1)
an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings taxed only between $400,000 and $500,000 (with
thresholds wage-indexed after 2015); and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly
computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo(Begich, Murray) |
0.32 | 0.34 | -2.40 | -4.42 | |
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