Scheduled vs. Payable Benefits

DEFINITIONS:

• Scheduled benefits are benefits specified under current law without regard to the balances in the Social Security trust funds.
• Payable benefits are what can be paid to all beneficiaries after trust fund exhaustion, currently projected to occur in 2035. After that, incoming revenues will be enough to pay about 75–80 percent of scheduled benefits.

SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.

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Table equivalent for chart: Average (Median) Monthly Benefit, 2030–2070 ^a (in 2021 dollars)

Year	Scheduled benefits	Payable benefits
2030	1,618	1,618
2050	1,937	1,549
2070	2,407	1,834

SOURCE: Assumptions from the 2019 Trustees Report.

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Table equivalent for chart: Difference Between Scheduled and Payable Benefits, 2020–2080 ^a

Year	Difference (percent)
2020–2034 (each year)	0
2035	-20.3
2036	-20.6
2037	-20.8
2038	-21.0
2039	-21.2
2040	-21.3
2041	-21.2
2042	-21.1
2043	-21.0
2044	-20.8
2045	-20.6
2046	-20.5
2047	-20.3
2048	-20.2
2049	-20.1
2050	-20.0
2051	-20.0
2052	-20.0
2053	-20.0
2054	-20.1
2055	-20.2
2056	-20.3
2057	-20.5
2058	-20.7
2059	-21.0
2060	-21.2
2061	-21.4
2062	-21.7
2063	-21.9
2064	-22.2
2065	-22.4
2066	-22.7
2067	-23.0
2068	-23.2
2069	-23.5
2070	-23.8
2071	-24.0
2072	-24.2
2073	-24.4
2074	-24.6
2075	-24.8
2076	-24.9
2077	-25.0
2078	-25.0
2079	-25.0
2080	-24.9

SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.

Show as table

Table equivalent for chart: Poverty Rate, 2020–2080 ^a (percent)

Year	Under scheduled benefits	Under payable benefits
2020	4.8	4.8
2021	4.7	4.7
2022	4.7	4.7
2023	4.6	4.6
2024	4.8	4.8
2025	4.7	4.7
2026	4.8	4.8
2027	4.8	4.8
2028	4.7	4.7
2029	4.6	4.6
2030	4.5	4.5
2031	4.5	4.5
2032	4.5	4.5
2033	4.4	4.4
2034	4.5	4.5
2035	4.5	7.4
2036	4.4	7.4
2037	4.3	7.3
2038	4.2	7.2
2039	4.3	7.3
2040	4.2	7.4
2041	4.3	7.5
2042	4.2	7.3
2043	4.3	7.5
2044	4.4	7.5
2045	4.3	7.2
2046	4.2	7.3
2047	4.0	7.0
2048	4.0	7.0
2049	4.0	7.0
2050	4.0	6.8
2051	4.0	6.8
2052	3.9	6.8
2053	4.0	6.9
2054	3.8	6.6
2055	3.8	6.6
2056	3.7	6.5
2057	3.6	6.4
2058	3.5	6.3
2059	3.4	6.1
2060	3.3	6.0
2061	3.2	5.9
2062	3.2	5.9
2063	3.0	5.7
2064	3.0	5.6
2065	3.0	5.6
2066	2.9	5.6
2067	2.8	5.4
2068	2.8	5.4
2069	2.6	5.2
2070	2.6	5.2
2071	2.5	5.1
2072	2.5	4.9
2073	2.5	4.9
2074	2.3	4.7
2075	2.3	4.7
2076	2.3	4.6
2077	2.2	4.4
2078	2.2	4.4
2079	2.1	4.2
2080	2.1	4.1