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Program Explainers

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    Claiming Age
  2. Government
    Pension Offset
  3. Retirement
    Earnings Test
  4. Scheduled vs.
    Payable Benefits
  5. Special
    Minimum Benefit
  6. Why Will Poverty Decline
    for Beneficiaries?
  7. Windfall Elimination
    Provision

Scheduled vs. Payable Benefits

Released: August 2021
Next expected update: 2024

DEFINITIONS:

  • Scheduled benefits are benefits specified under current law without regard to the balances in the Social Security trust funds.
  • Payable benefits are what can be paid to all beneficiaries after trust fund exhaustion, currently projected to occur in 2035. After that, incoming revenues will be enough to pay about 75–80 percent of scheduled benefits.
Chart. Title: Average (Median) Monthly Benefit, 2030-2070: In 2021 dollars. Bar chart with tabular version below.
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
Show as table
Table equivalent for chart: Average (Median) Monthly Benefit, 2030–2070a (in 2021 dollars)
Year Scheduled benefits Payable benefits
2030 1,618 1,618
2050 1,937 1,549
2070 2,407 1,834
Chart. Title: Difference Between Scheduled and Payable Benefits, 2020-2080. Line chart with tabular version below.
SOURCE: Assumptions from the 2019 Trustees Report.
Show as table
Table equivalent for chart: Difference Between Scheduled and Payable Benefits, 2020–2080a
Year Difference (percent)
2020–2034 (each year) 0
2035 -20.3
2036 -20.6
2037 -20.8
2038 -21.0
2039 -21.2
2040 -21.3
2041 -21.2
2042 -21.1
2043 -21.0
2044 -20.8
2045 -20.6
2046 -20.5
2047 -20.3
2048 -20.2
2049 -20.1
2050 -20.0
2051 -20.0
2052 -20.0
2053 -20.0
2054 -20.1
2055 -20.2
2056 -20.3
2057 -20.5
2058 -20.7
2059 -21.0
2060 -21.2
2061 -21.4
2062 -21.7
2063 -21.9
2064 -22.2
2065 -22.4
2066 -22.7
2067 -23.0
2068 -23.2
2069 -23.5
2070 -23.8
2071 -24.0
2072 -24.2
2073 -24.4
2074 -24.6
2075 -24.8
2076 -24.9
2077 -25.0
2078 -25.0
2079 -25.0
2080 -24.9
Chart. Title: Poverty Rate, 2020-2080. Line chart with tabular version below.
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
Show as table
Table equivalent for chart: Poverty Rate, 2020–2080a (percent)
Year Under scheduled benefits Under payable benefits
2020 4.8 4.8
2021 4.7 4.7
2022 4.7 4.7
2023 4.6 4.6
2024 4.8 4.8
2025 4.7 4.7
2026 4.8 4.8
2027 4.8 4.8
2028 4.7 4.7
2029 4.6 4.6
2030 4.5 4.5
2031 4.5 4.5
2032 4.5 4.5
2033 4.4 4.4
2034 4.5 4.5
2035 4.5 7.4
2036 4.4 7.4
2037 4.3 7.3
2038 4.2 7.2
2039 4.3 7.3
2040 4.2 7.4
2041 4.3 7.5
2042 4.2 7.3
2043 4.3 7.5
2044 4.4 7.5
2045 4.3 7.2
2046 4.2 7.3
2047 4.0 7.0
2048 4.0 7.0
2049 4.0 7.0
2050 4.0 6.8
2051 4.0 6.8
2052 3.9 6.8
2053 4.0 6.9
2054 3.8 6.6
2055 3.8 6.6
2056 3.7 6.5
2057 3.6 6.4
2058 3.5 6.3
2059 3.4 6.1
2060 3.3 6.0
2061 3.2 5.9
2062 3.2 5.9
2063 3.0 5.7
2064 3.0 5.6
2065 3.0 5.6
2066 2.9 5.6
2067 2.8 5.4
2068 2.8 5.4
2069 2.6 5.2
2070 2.6 5.2
2071 2.5 5.1
2072 2.5 4.9
2073 2.5 4.9
2074 2.3 4.7
2075 2.3 4.7
2076 2.3 4.6
2077 2.2 4.4
2078 2.2 4.4
2079 2.1 4.2
2080 2.1 4.1

a. All projections are for beneficiaries aged 60 or older.