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Scheduled vs. Payable Benefits
Released: August 2021Next expected update: 2023
DEFINITIONS:
- Scheduled benefits are benefits specified under current law without regard to the balances in the Social Security trust funds.
- Payable benefits are what can be paid to all beneficiaries after trust fund exhaustion, currently projected to occur in 2035. After that, incoming revenues will be enough to pay about 75–80 percent of scheduled benefits.
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
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Year | Scheduled benefits | Payable benefits |
---|---|---|
2030 | 1,618 | 1,618 |
2050 | 1,937 | 1,549 |
2070 | 2,407 | 1,834 |
SOURCE: Assumptions from the 2019 Trustees Report.
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Year | Difference (percent) |
---|---|
2020–2034 (each year) | 0 |
2035 | -20.3 |
2036 | -20.6 |
2037 | -20.8 |
2038 | -21.0 |
2039 | -21.2 |
2040 | -21.3 |
2041 | -21.2 |
2042 | -21.1 |
2043 | -21.0 |
2044 | -20.8 |
2045 | -20.6 |
2046 | -20.5 |
2047 | -20.3 |
2048 | -20.2 |
2049 | -20.1 |
2050 | -20.0 |
2051 | -20.0 |
2052 | -20.0 |
2053 | -20.0 |
2054 | -20.1 |
2055 | -20.2 |
2056 | -20.3 |
2057 | -20.5 |
2058 | -20.7 |
2059 | -21.0 |
2060 | -21.2 |
2061 | -21.4 |
2062 | -21.7 |
2063 | -21.9 |
2064 | -22.2 |
2065 | -22.4 |
2066 | -22.7 |
2067 | -23.0 |
2068 | -23.2 |
2069 | -23.5 |
2070 | -23.8 |
2071 | -24.0 |
2072 | -24.2 |
2073 | -24.4 |
2074 | -24.6 |
2075 | -24.8 |
2076 | -24.9 |
2077 | -25.0 |
2078 | -25.0 |
2079 | -25.0 |
2080 | -24.9 |
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
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Year | Under scheduled benefits | Under payable benefits |
---|---|---|
2020 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2021 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2022 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2023 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
2024 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2025 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2026 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2027 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2028 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2029 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
2030 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
2031 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
2032 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
2033 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
2034 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
2035 | 4.5 | 7.4 |
2036 | 4.4 | 7.4 |
2037 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
2038 | 4.2 | 7.2 |
2039 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
2040 | 4.2 | 7.4 |
2041 | 4.3 | 7.5 |
2042 | 4.2 | 7.3 |
2043 | 4.3 | 7.5 |
2044 | 4.4 | 7.5 |
2045 | 4.3 | 7.2 |
2046 | 4.2 | 7.3 |
2047 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
2048 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
2049 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
2050 | 4.0 | 6.8 |
2051 | 4.0 | 6.8 |
2052 | 3.9 | 6.8 |
2053 | 4.0 | 6.9 |
2054 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
2055 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
2056 | 3.7 | 6.5 |
2057 | 3.6 | 6.4 |
2058 | 3.5 | 6.3 |
2059 | 3.4 | 6.1 |
2060 | 3.3 | 6.0 |
2061 | 3.2 | 5.9 |
2062 | 3.2 | 5.9 |
2063 | 3.0 | 5.7 |
2064 | 3.0 | 5.6 |
2065 | 3.0 | 5.6 |
2066 | 2.9 | 5.6 |
2067 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
2068 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
2069 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
2070 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
2071 | 2.5 | 5.1 |
2072 | 2.5 | 4.9 |
2073 | 2.5 | 4.9 |
2074 | 2.3 | 4.7 |
2075 | 2.3 | 4.7 |
2076 | 2.3 | 4.6 |
2077 | 2.2 | 4.4 |
2078 | 2.2 | 4.4 |
2079 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
2080 | 2.1 | 4.1 |
a. All projections are for beneficiaries aged 60 or older.