Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 81, No. 4

(released November 2021)
by John A. Turner and David Rajnes

This study examines workers' expectations about their future Social Security benefits. The authors compile and analyze results of more than 60 individual surveys covering 1971 through 2020, with more than 130,000 respondents in total. The authors compare results over time and by demographic group to examine how Social Security expectations vary. They investigate possible explanations for the variations they find as well as for the finding that workers' expectations tend to be more pessimistic than Social Security actuarial projections.

by Javier Meseguer

Using period mortality estimates from Social Security Administration actuarial studies published over the period from 1977 to 2015, this article compares the long-term mortality trends of Disability Insurance (DI) beneficiaries aged 25 or older with those of the general population. The author finds substantial longevity gaps between the groups. Mortality rates among DI beneficiaries are highest in their first year on the DI rolls; rates are lower among those with longer durations on the rolls. Although period mortality for DI beneficiaries improved significantly over the study period, it remains today at levels similar to those experienced by the general public in the early years of the 20th century.