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Projections by Demographic Group
- American Indians and
Alaska Natives - Beneficiary
Race/Ethnicity - Lifetime
Low Earners - Oldest
Old - Sporadic Low
Earners - Taxpayer
Race/Ethnicity
The Oldest Old in 2050
Methodology »Released: August 2021
Next expected update: 2023
DEFINITION: The oldest old are beneficiaries aged 85 or older in a given year. Projections for beneficiaries aged 60 or older are provided for comparison.
In 2050, we project that:
- The oldest old will include more women and widows, but fewer disabled, than those aged 60 or older.
- The median benefit amount will be higher for the oldest old than for those aged 60 or older.
- The poverty rate will be lower for the oldest old compared with those aged 60 or older.
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Characteristic | Aged 60 or older | Aged 85 or older |
---|---|---|
Number of beneficiaries | 84 million | 17 million |
Women | 53% | 58% |
Race/ethnicity | ||
White | 63% | 74% |
Black | 10% | 8% |
All other races | 8% | 7% |
Hispanic origin | 19% | 10% |
Ever disabled | 12% | 4% |
Widowed | 19% | 37% |
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Under– | Aged 60 or older | Aged 85 or older |
---|---|---|
Scheduled benefits | 1,937 | 2,037 |
Payable benefits | 1,549 | 1,629 |
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Under— | Aged 60 or older | Aged 85 or older |
---|---|---|
Scheduled benefits | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Payable benefits | 6.8 | 5.4 |
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.