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Projections by Demographic Group

  1. Beneficiary
    Race/Ethnicity
  2. Lifetime
    Low Earners
  3.  Oldest 
    Old
  4. Sporadic Low
    Earners
  5. Taxpayer
    Race/Ethnicity

Taxpayers Aged 31+ by Race & Ethnicity

Methodology »
Released: March 2022
Next expected update: 2023

DEFINITION: Social Security taxpayers are workers paying Federal Insurance Contributions Act payroll taxes under current law.

In 2050, we project that:

  • More taxpayers will identify as Hispanic/Latino or all other races a than in 2022.
  • Taxpayers of all other races will have the highest rate of bachelor's and graduate degrees compared with the other groups.
  • White workers will have the most median lifetime credits b with 184 (comparable to 46 years of work), while Hispanic workers will have the fewest with 156 (39 years of work).
  • Household wealth for workers who are Hispanic ($79,127) and workers who are Black ($74,938) will be around four times lower than that of workers who are White ($303,064).
Chart. Title: Racial and Ethnic Identification, 2022–2070: Percentage of taxpayers aged 31 or older. Stacked bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Racial and Ethnic Identification, 2022–2070 (percentage of taxpayers aged 31 or older)
Year Hispanic or Latino, any race Non-Hispanic
White Black All other races
2022 17 64 11 7
2030 19 61 11 8
2050 25 54 11 10
2070 31 47 10 12
Chart. Title: Highest Education Level Attained, 2050: Percentage of taxpayers aged 31 or older. Stacked bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Highest Education Level Attained, 2050 (percentage of taxpayers aged 31 or older)
Race or ethnicity Less than high school High school Associate Bachelor's Graduate
All 10 29 22 19 20
Hispanic/Latino 27 38 17 8 10
Black 8 39 23 17 13
White 4 26 24 22 23
All other races 3 14 18 30 34
Chart. Title: Covered Earnings, 2050. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Covered Earnings, 2050
Race or ethnicity Median uncapped, in 2021 dollars
All 65,226
Hispanic/Latino 52,472
Black 54,430
White 72,987
All other races 85,954
Chart. Title: Lifetime Credits Earned. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Lifetime Credits Earned
Race or ethnicity Median
All 173
Hispanic/Latino 156
Black 164
White 184
All other races 173
Chart. Title: Household Wealth, 2050. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Household Wealth, 2050
Race or ethnicity Median, in thousands of 2021 dollars
All 189
Hispanic/Latino 79
Black 75
White 303
All other races 272

SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2019 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.

NOTES: Content is simplified for presentation. Refer to the MINT8 Projection Methodology for model details or the Table User Guide for definitions of racial/ethnic identifications, education levels, household income, and poverty.

The Black, White, and all other races subgroups are non-Hispanic.

“Uncapped” earnings includes earnings above the maximum taxable amount.

a. Includes anyone identifying as a race or ethnicity other than Black, White, or Hispanic/Latino.

b. Includes credits that could be earned after 2050 by taxpayers projected to be alive in 2050.