Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

List of Tables

II.1 Selected OASDI Short-Range Economic Assumptions

II.2 Average Amount of Total Wages

II.3 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Base, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts

II.4 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions

II.5 Interest Rates for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds

II.6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions

II.7 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions

III.A1 Workers Insured for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Benefits

III.A2 Social Security Area Population Under Normal Retirement Age

III.A3 Workers Under Normal Retirement Age Who Are Fully Insured

III.A4 Labor Force Participation Rates

Disability Insurance Program-Number of Beneficiaries

III.A5 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability as a Percent of Fully Insured

III.A6 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability

III.A7 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force

III.A8 DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates

III.A9 DI Disabled Worker Awards

III.A10 DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates

III.A11 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Death

III.A12 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Recovery

III.A13 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to "Other" Reasons

III.A14 DI Disabled Worker Total

III.A15 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Death

III.A16 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Recovery

III.A17 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to "Other" Reasons

III.A18 DI Disabled Worker Withheld Rates

III.A19 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.A20 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.A21 DI Awards to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.A22 DI Awards to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers

III.A23 DI Male Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A24 DI Female Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A25 DI Total Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A26 DI Young Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A27 DI Young Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A28 DI Aged Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A29 DI Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A30 DI Total Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A31 DI Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A32 DI Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.A33 DI Student Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program-Number of Beneficiaries

III.B1 Population in the Social Security Area, Age 60 or Older

III.B2 OASI Workers Who Are Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older

III.B3 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B4 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force

III.B5 Retired and Disabled Workers and Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force, Age 60 or Older

III.B6 Retired and Disabled Workers and Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force, Age 60 or Older as a Percentage of Fully Insured Population

III.B7 Awards to Retired Workers and Insured Aged Widows and Widowers, as a Percentage of Eligible Nonretired and Nondisabled Workers

III.B8 Awards to Retired Workers

III.B9 Awards to Insured Aged Widows and Widowers

III.B10 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B11 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Retired Workers In Force

III.B12 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B13 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld

III.B14 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Insured Aged Widow(ers) In Force

III.B15 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B16 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B17 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B18 Non-Orphan and Orphan Population, Under 18, in the Social Security Area

III.B19 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B20 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Non-Orphan Population

III.B21 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers

III.B22 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Workers

III.B23 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B24 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B25 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers as a Percentage of the Orphan Population

III.B26 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers

III.B27 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B28 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B29 Uninsured Population in the Social Security Area

III.B30 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B31 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population

III.B32 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers

III.B33 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B34 Numbers of Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Disabled Children In Force

III.B35 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B36 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B37 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population

III.B38 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers

III.B39 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B40 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Disabled Children In Force

III.B41 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B42 Student Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B43 Student Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B44 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force and as a Percent of Male Retired Workers In Force

III.B45 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status and as a Percent of Male Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status

III.B46 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B47 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B48 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B49 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of Retired Workers

III.B50 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired

III.B51 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Spouses In Force

III.B52 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B53 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B54 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B55 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of Deceased Workers

III.B56 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers

III.B57 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Widow(er)s In Force

III.B58 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B59 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B60 Young Wives of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B61 Young Husbands of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B62 Mother Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B63 Father Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B64 Disabled Widows of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B65 Disabled Widows of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B66 Disabled Widows of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B67 Disabled Widowers of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force

III.B68 Disabled Widowers of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B69 Disabled Widowers of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B70 Aged Wives of Retired Workers and Uninsured Widows of Deceased Workers, Under Age 65, With Benefits In Force

III.B71 Aged Wives of Retired Workers and Uninsured Widows of Deceased Workers, Age 65 or Older, With Benefits In Force

III.B72 Aged Wives of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B73 Aged Wives of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B74 Aged Uninsured Widows of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B75 Aged Widows of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B76 Aged Husbands of Retired Workers and Uninsured Widowers of Deceased Workers, Under Age 65, With Benefits In Force

III.B77 Aged Husbands of Retired Workers and Uninsured Widowers of Deceased Workers, Age 65 or Older, With Benefits In Force

III.B78 Aged Husbands of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B79 Aged Husbands of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B80 Aged Uninsured Widowers of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld

III.B81 Aged Widowers of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status

III.B82 Parents of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B83 Special Age-72 Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status

III.B84 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status

OASDI Average Award Amounts

III.C1 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Disabled Workers

III.C2 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.C3 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers

III.C4 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Retired Workers

III.C5 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Survivors of Deceased Workers

Disability Insurance Program-Benefit Payments

III.D1 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Male Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D2 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Female Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D3 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Total Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,and In Current-Payment Status

III.D4 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Wives of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D5 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Husbands of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D6 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Wives of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D7 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D8 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Total Spouses of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D9 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Minor Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D10 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D11 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Student Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.D12 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Disabled Workers

III.D13 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Young Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.D14 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.D15 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Total Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.D16 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Disabled Workers

III.D17 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Total Children of Disabled Workers

III.D18 DI Non-Current-Payment Benefits

III.D19 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for All Beneficiaries

III.D20 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Disabled Workers

III.D21 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Spouses of Disabled Workers

III.D22 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Children of Disabled Workers

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program-Benefit Payments

III.E1 Average Monthly Benefit of Retired Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E2 Average Monthly Benefit to Young and Aged Spouses of Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status

III.E3 Average Monthly Benefit to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status

III.E4 Average Monthly Benefit to Minor Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E5 Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E6 Average Monthly Benefit to Student Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E7 Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E8 Average Monthly Benefit to Mother and Father Beneficiaries In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E9 Average Monthly Benefit to Parents of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E10 Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status

III.E11 Average Monthly Benefit to Special Age-72 Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status

III.E12 Current-Payment Benefits to Retired

III.E13 Current-Payment Benefits to Young Spouses of Retired Workers

III.E14 Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Spouses of Retired Workers

III.E15 Current-Payment Benefits to Total Spouses of Retired Workers

III.E16 Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Retired Workers

III.E17 Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Deceased Workers

III.E18 Current-Payment Benefits to OASI Children

III.E19 Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers

III.E20 Current-Payment Benefits to Mother and Father Beneficiaries

III.E21 Current-Payment Benefits to Parents of Deceased Workers

III.E22 Current-Payment Benefits to Disabled Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers

III.E23 Current-Payment Benefits to Special Age-72 Beneficiaries

III.E24 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Retired Workers and Dependents, Other Than Benefits Due to AERO

III.E25 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Retired Workers and Dependents

III.E26 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Survivors of Deceased Workers, Other Than Benefits Due to AERO

III.E27 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Survivors of Deceased Workers

III.E28 Lump-Sum Death Benefits

III.E29 Number of OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired-Worker and Secondary Benefit, by Type of Secondary Benefit

III.E30 Average Reduced Secondary Benefits for OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired-Worker and Secondary Benefit, by Type of Secondary Benefit

III.E31 Reduced Secondary Benefits of OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired-Worker and Secondary Benefit, by Type of Secondary Benefit

III.E32 Adjusted Current-Payment Benefits, Non-Current-Payment Benefits, and Total Benefits to OASI Beneficiaries

III.E33 Summary of OASDI Current-Payment Benefits

III.E34 Summary of OASDI Non-Current-Payment Benefits

III.E35 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments

IV.1 Contribution Rates to the OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.2 FICA, SECA, and State Deposit Revenue to the OASI Trust Fund

IV.3 FICA, SECA, and State Deposit Revenue to the DI Trust Fund

IV.4 Income from Taxation of OASI and DI Benefits

IV.5 Benefits Withheld from Nonresident Aliens and Credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.6 Payments to the OASI and DI Trust Funds due to Military Service Credits

IV.7 Reimbursements for Payments to Uninsured Persons Who Attained Age 72 Before 1968

IV.8 Interest Paid to the OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.9 Reimbursements to the OASI and DI Trust Funds due to Unnegotiated Checks

IV.10 Expenses for Vocational Rehabilitation Services Paid by the OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.11 Transfers Between the OASI and DI Trust Funds and the Railroad Retirement Program

IV.12 Net Administrative Expenses from the OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.13 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

IV.14 Operations of the DI Trust Fund

IV.15 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

IV.16 Trust Fund Ratios of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

IV.17 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

Low-Cost Assumptions

V.A1 Selected OASDI Short-Range Economic Assumptions

V.A2 Average Amount of Total Wages

V.A3 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts

V.A4 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions

V.A5 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions

V.A6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions

V.A7 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status

V.A8 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments

V.A9 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

V.A10 Operations of the DI Trust Fund

V.A11 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

V.A12 Trust Fund Ratios of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

V.A13 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

High-Cost Assumptions

V.B1 Selected OASDI Short-Range Economic Assumptions

V.B2 Average Amount of Total Wages

V.B3 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts

V.B4 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment

V.B5 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions

V.B6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions

V.B7 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Stauts

V.B8 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments

V.B9 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

V.B10 Operations of the DI Trust Fund

V.B11 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

V.B12 Trust Fund Ratios of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

V.B13 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds

List of Studies
December 26, 2001