Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2021 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.1   491.6   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.6   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   462.9   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.3   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.8   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.8   249.2   4,631.3
2012   1.88   811.8   248.8   4,565.6
2013   1.85   812.4   249.6   4,564.6
2014   1.87   805.2   251.8   4,495.1
2015   1.85   815.4   255.3   4,549.7
2016   1.82   808.8   261.0   4,461.0
2017   1.77   812.8   261.6   4,487.7
2018   1.73    d 803.4   258.8    d 4,434.6
2019   1.70    d 792.3    d 257.6    d 4,357.1
2020    e 1.65    f 923.7    f 299.9    f 5,083.2

Intermediate:
2021   1.54   908.3   296.5   4,987.1
2022   1.62   818.1   269.2   4,477.7
2023   1.71   789.8   260.8   4,316.7
2024   1.79   776.7   257.0   4,242.1
2025   1.82   771.1   255.3   4,210.0
2026   1.84   765.3   253.5   4,177.8
2027   1.80   759.5   251.6   4,145.7
2028   1.82   753.5   249.5   4,113.8
2029   1.84   747.5   247.4   4,081.9
2030   1.87   741.5   245.2   4,050.3
2031   1.88   735.5   243.0   4,019.0
2032   1.89   729.4   240.7   3,987.9
2033   1.90   723.5   238.5   3,957.2
2034   1.92   717.5   236.2   3,926.7
2035   1.93   711.6   233.9   3,896.7
2036   1.94   705.8   231.7   3,866.9
2037   1.95   700.0   229.4   3,837.5
2038   1.96   694.3   227.2   3,808.5
2039   1.97   688.6   225.0   3,779.8
2040   1.98   683.0   222.8   3,751.4
2041   1.98   677.4   220.6   3,723.4
2042   1.99   672.0   218.4   3,695.8
2043   1.99   666.5   216.3   3,668.5
2044   1.99   661.2   214.2   3,641.5
2045   2.00   655.9   212.1   3,614.9
2046   2.00   650.6   210.0   3,588.6
2047   2.00   645.5   207.9   3,562.7
2048   2.00   640.3   205.9   3,537.0
2049   2.00   635.3   203.9   3,511.7
2050   2.00   630.3   201.9   3,486.7
2051   2.00   625.4   199.9   3,462.1
2052   2.00   620.5   198.0   3,437.7
2053   2.00   615.7   196.1   3,413.7
2054   2.00   611.0   194.2   3,389.9
2055   2.00   606.3   192.3   3,366.5
2056   2.00   601.6   190.4   3,343.3
2057   2.00   597.1   188.6   3,320.4
2058   2.00   592.6   186.8   3,297.9
2059   2.00   588.1   185.0   3,275.5
2060   2.00   583.7   183.2   3,253.5
2061   2.00   579.3   181.5   3,231.7
2062   2.00   575.0   179.8   3,210.2
2063   2.00   570.7   178.0   3,189.0
2064   2.00   566.5   176.4   3,168.0
2065   2.00   562.4   174.7   3,147.3
2066   2.00   558.3   173.0   3,126.8
2067   2.00   554.2   171.4   3,106.6
2068   2.00   550.2   169.8   3,086.6
2069   2.00   546.2   168.2   3,066.8
2070   2.00   542.3   166.6   3,047.3
2071   2.00   538.5   165.0   3,028.1
2072   2.00   534.6   163.5   3,009.0
2073   2.00   530.8   162.0   2,990.2
2074   2.00   527.1   160.5   2,971.6
2075   2.00   523.4   159.0   2,953.2
2076   2.00   519.8   157.5   2,935.0
2077   2.00   516.1   156.0   2,917.0
2078   2.00   512.6   154.6   2,899.3
2079   2.00   509.0   153.2   2,881.7
2080   2.00   505.5   151.8   2,864.4
2081   2.00   502.1   150.4   2,847.2
2082   2.00   498.7   149.0   2,830.2
2083   2.00   495.3   147.6   2,813.5
2084   2.00   492.0   146.3   2,796.9
2085   2.00   488.7   144.9   2,780.5
2086   2.00   485.4   143.6   2,764.3
2087   2.00   482.2   142.3   2,748.3
2088   2.00   479.0   141.0   2,732.5
2089   2.00   475.8   139.7   2,716.8
2090   2.00   472.7   138.5   2,701.3
2091   2.00   469.6   137.2   2,686.0
2092   2.00   466.6   136.0   2,670.8
2093   2.00   463.6   134.8   2,655.8
2094   2.00   460.6   133.6   2,641.0
2095   2.00   457.6   132.4   2,626.4
2096   2.00   454.7   131.2   2,611.9
2097   2.00   451.8   130.0   2,597.5
2098   2.00   449.0   128.8   2,583.3
2099   2.00   446.1   127.7   2,569.3
2100   2.00   443.3   126.6   2,555.4

Low-cost:
2021   1.62   918.2   299.9   5,040.5
2022   1.73   831.7   274.0   4,550.0
2023   1.83   807.5   267.1   4,409.9
2024   1.94   798.5   264.8   4,356.9
2025   1.97   797.3   264.8   4,347.2
2026   2.01   795.8   264.7   4,337.0
2027   1.97   794.2   264.4   4,326.6
2028   2.00   792.4   263.9   4,315.9
2029   2.04   790.6   263.4   4,305.1
2030   2.07   788.6   262.8   4,294.2
2031   2.08   786.6   262.2   4,283.1
2032   2.09   784.6   261.5   4,272.0
2033   2.11   782.5   260.8   4,260.8
2034   2.12   780.4   260.0   4,249.6
2035   2.13   778.2   259.2   4,238.4
2036   2.14   776.1   258.4   4,227.2
2037   2.15   773.9   257.6   4,216.1
2038   2.16   771.7   256.8   4,204.9
2039   2.17   769.6   256.0   4,193.8
2040   2.18   767.4   255.1   4,182.6
2041   2.18   765.2   254.3   4,171.6
2042   2.19   763.1   253.5   4,160.5
2043   2.19   760.9   252.6   4,149.5
2044   2.19   758.7   251.8   4,138.6
2045   2.20   756.6   251.0   4,127.6
2046   2.20   754.4   250.1   4,116.7
2047   2.20   752.3   249.3   4,105.9
2048   2.20   750.1   248.4   4,095.1
2049   2.20   748.0   247.6   4,084.3
2050   2.20   745.9   246.8   4,073.6
2051   2.20   743.8   245.9   4,063.0
2052   2.20   741.7   245.1   4,052.4
2053   2.20   739.6   244.3   4,041.8
2054   2.20   737.5   243.5   4,031.3
2055   2.20   735.4   242.7   4,020.8
2056   2.20   733.4   241.9   4,010.4
2057   2.20   731.3   241.0   4,000.0
2058   2.20   729.3   240.2   3,989.7
2059   2.20   727.2   239.4   3,979.4
2060   2.20   725.2   238.6   3,969.2
2061   2.20   723.2   237.8   3,959.0
2062   2.20   721.2   237.1   3,948.8
2063   2.20   719.2   236.3   3,938.7
2064   2.20   717.2   235.5   3,928.6
2065   2.20   715.2   234.7   3,918.6
2066   2.20   713.2   233.9   3,908.7
2067   2.20   711.2   233.1   3,898.7
2068   2.20   709.3   232.4   3,888.8
2069   2.20   707.3   231.6   3,879.0
2070   2.20   705.4   230.8   3,869.2
2071   2.20   703.4   230.1   3,859.4
2072   2.20   701.5   229.3   3,849.7
2073   2.20   699.6   228.5   3,840.0
2074   2.20   697.7   227.8   3,830.4
2075   2.20   695.8   227.0   3,820.8
2076   2.20   693.9   226.3   3,811.3
2077   2.20   692.0   225.5   3,801.8
2078   2.20   690.1   224.8   3,792.3
2079   2.20   688.2   224.1   3,782.9
2080   2.20   686.3   223.3   3,773.5
2081   2.20   684.5   222.6   3,764.1
2082   2.20   682.6   221.9   3,754.8
2083   2.20   680.8   221.1   3,745.6
2084   2.20   679.0   220.4   3,736.3
2085   2.20   677.1   219.7   3,727.1
2086   2.20   675.3   219.0   3,718.0
2087   2.20   673.5   218.2   3,708.9
2088   2.20   671.7   217.5   3,699.8
2089   2.20   669.9   216.8   3,690.8
2090   2.20   668.1   216.1   3,681.8
2091   2.20   666.3   215.4   3,672.8
2092   2.20   664.6   214.7   3,663.9
2093   2.20   662.8   214.0   3,655.1
2094   2.20   661.0   213.3   3,646.2
2095   2.20   659.3   212.6   3,637.4
2096   2.20   657.5   211.9   3,628.6
2097   2.20   655.8   211.2   3,619.9
2098   2.20   654.1   210.5   3,611.2
2099   2.20   652.3   209.8   3,602.6
2100   2.20   650.6   209.2   3,594.0

High-cost:
2021   1.43   896.9   292.5   4,926.3
2022   1.47   802.2   263.6   4,393.6
2023   1.53   768.8   253.3   4,206.3
2024   1.59   750.4   247.3   4,104.3
2025   1.59   739.2   243.6   4,044.0
2026   1.60   728.0   239.6   3,984.0
2027   1.54   716.7   235.6   3,924.7
2028   1.56   705.5   231.4   3,866.2
2029   1.57   694.4   227.3   3,808.6
2030   1.59   683.4   223.1   3,752.0
2031   1.60   672.6   219.0   3,696.6
2032   1.60   661.9   214.9   3,642.4
2033   1.61   651.5   210.8   3,589.3
2034   1.62   641.2   206.8   3,537.4
2035   1.63   631.2   202.9   3,486.7
2036   1.64   621.3   199.0   3,437.2
2037   1.65   611.7   195.2   3,388.8
2038   1.66   602.3   191.5   3,341.7
2039   1.67   593.1   187.8   3,295.6
2040   1.68   584.2   184.2   3,250.7
2041   1.68   575.4   180.7   3,206.8
2042   1.69   566.8   177.3   3,164.0
2043   1.69   558.5   173.9   3,122.3
2044   1.69   550.3   170.6   3,081.5
2045   1.70   542.3   167.4   3,041.7
2046   1.70   534.5   164.3   3,002.8
2047   1.70   526.8   161.2   2,964.8
2048   1.70   519.4   158.2   2,927.8
2049   1.70   512.1   155.2   2,891.6
2050   1.70   505.0   152.3   2,856.2
2051   1.70   498.0   149.5   2,821.7
2052   1.70   491.2   146.8   2,788.0
2053   1.70   484.6   144.1   2,755.0
2054   1.70   478.1   141.4   2,722.8
2055   1.70   471.8   138.9   2,691.3
2056   1.70   465.6   136.3   2,660.5
2057   1.70   459.5   133.9   2,630.4
2058   1.70   453.6   131.5   2,601.0
2059   1.70   447.7   129.1   2,572.2
2060   1.70   442.1   126.8   2,544.0
2061   1.70   436.5   124.5   2,516.5
2062   1.70   431.1   122.3   2,489.5
2063   1.70   425.7   120.2   2,463.1
2064   1.70   420.5   118.1   2,437.2
2065   1.70   415.4   116.0   2,411.9
2066   1.70   410.4   114.0   2,387.1
2067   1.70   405.5   112.0   2,362.9
2068   1.70   400.7   110.0   2,339.1
2069   1.70   396.1   108.1   2,315.8
2070   1.70   391.5   106.3   2,292.9
2071   1.70   386.9   104.4   2,270.6
2072   1.70   382.5   102.6   2,248.6
2073   1.70   378.2   100.9   2,227.1
2074   1.70   374.0   99.2   2,206.0
2075   1.70   369.8   97.5   2,185.3
2076   1.70   365.7   95.9   2,165.0
2077   1.70   361.7   94.2   2,145.1
2078   1.70   357.8   92.7   2,125.6
2079   1.70   354.0   91.1   2,106.4
2080   1.70   350.2   89.6   2,087.6
2081   1.70   346.5   88.1   2,069.1
2082   1.70   342.9   86.7   2,051.0
2083   1.70   339.3   85.2   2,033.1
2084   1.70   335.8   83.8   2,015.6
2085   1.70   332.4   82.5   1,998.4
2086   1.70   329.0   81.1   1,981.5
2087   1.70   325.7   79.8   1,964.9
2088   1.70   322.4   78.5   1,948.6
2089   1.70   319.2   77.2   1,932.6
2090   1.70   316.1   76.0   1,916.8
2091   1.70   313.0   74.8   1,901.3
2092   1.70   310.0   73.6   1,886.0
2093   1.70   307.0   72.4   1,871.0
2094   1.70   304.1   71.3   1,856.3
2095   1.70   301.2   70.1   1,841.8
2096   1.70   298.4   69.0   1,827.5
2097   1.70   295.6   67.9   1,813.4
2098   1.70   292.9   66.9   1,799.6
2099   1.70   290.2   65.8   1,785.9
2100   1.70   287.5   64.8   1,772.5
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated using provisional data through the third quarter and the intermediate assumptions.
f Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for all ages.