Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2025 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,^a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Historical data:
Calendar year	Total fertility rate^b	Age-sex-adjusted death rate^c per 100,000
Calendar year	Total fertility rate^b	Total	Under 65	65 and over
1940	2.23	1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
1941	2.33	1,836.5	726.1	9,240.1
1942	2.55	1,776.7	703.0	8,935.3
1943	2.64	1,852.8	708.8	9,479.8
1944	2.49	1,763.8	685.6	8,952.5
1945	2.42	1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
1946	2.86	1,664.4	641.2	8,485.9
1947	3.18	1,668.3	619.0	8,663.7
1948	3.03	1,633.0	604.8	8,488.3
1949	3.04	1,583.3	585.3	8,237.3
1950	3.03	1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
1951	3.20	1,548.4	565.5	8,101.4
1952	3.29	1,518.8	558.8	7,919.5
1953	3.35	1,510.5	545.5	7,944.7
1954	3.46	1,433.4	514.9	7,557.2
1955	3.50	1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
1956	3.60	1,455.4	506.8	7,780.4
1957	3.68	1,481.6	516.6	7,916.0
1958	3.63	1,467.9	506.1	7,880.1
1959	3.64	1,440.8	499.2	7,719.3
1960	3.61	1,454.3	503.2	7,795.6
1961	3.56	1,421.0	488.0	7,642.0
1962	3.42	1,448.3	493.7	7,813.3
1963	3.30	1,472.7	501.3	7,949.1
1964	3.17	1,426.0	496.5	7,622.9
1965	2.88	1,428.8	495.2	7,653.9
1966	2.67	1,431.5	497.1	7,661.5
1967	2.53	1,393.5	488.5	7,427.4
1968	2.43	1,429.1	500.6	7,620.1
1969	2.42	1,383.9	491.3	7,334.8
1970	2.43	1,350.2	485.8	7,113.9
1971	2.25	1,343.7	472.5	7,152.4
1972	1.99	1,337.4	469.8	7,122.1
1973	1.86	1,320.2	462.5	7,038.6
1974	1.82	1,264.3	443.2	6,738.8
1975	1.77	1,214.2	426.2	6,467.8
1976	1.74	1,205.2	415.7	6,469.1
1977	1.80	1,168.9	405.1	6,261.1
1978	1.76	1,165.9	398.0	6,285.6
1979	1.82	1,125.0	385.4	6,056.0
1980	1.82	1,145.2	383.9	6,221.5
1981	1.80	1,113.7	374.4	6,042.6
1982	1.81	1,079.2	362.5	5,857.6
1983	1.78	1,092.9	357.4	5,996.5
1984	1.79	1,084.0	353.6	5,953.5
1985	1.83	1,088.6	352.8	5,994.7
1986	1.83	1,077.1	350.1	5,924.3
1987	1.86	1,066.2	346.8	5,862.5
1988	1.92	1,077.0	346.3	5,948.6
1989	2.00	1,046.0	340.0	5,753.1
1990	2.07	1,026.2	333.3	5,646.0
1991	2.06	1,011.6	329.1	5,562.0
1992	2.04	997.0	322.4	5,494.7
1993	2.02	1,020.9	325.8	5,655.1
1994	2.00	1,007.5	322.1	5,577.8
1995	1.98	1,005.0	318.3	5,582.9
1996	1.98	990.3	306.5	5,549.5
1997	1.97	975.5	293.8	5,520.5
1998	2.00	967.9	286.6	5,510.3
1999	2.01	974.3	284.2	5,575.3
2000	2.05	964.1	281.4	5,515.8
2001	2.03	954.0	280.2	5,445.9
2002	2.03	950.0	279.3	5,421.9
2003	2.05	936.0	278.0	5,323.1
2004	2.06	901.4	270.2	5,109.7
2005	2.06	903.7	271.1	5,121.7
2006	2.11	880.1	267.4	4,965.2
2007	2.12	859.3	261.7	4,843.9
2008	2.07	859.8	258.9	4,866.8
2009	2.00	828.3	255.4	4,647.9
2010	1.93	821.5	248.5	4,641.9
2011	1.89	820.5	248.6	4,633.9
2012	1.87	811.7	247.5	4,573.4
2013	1.85	812.4	248.0	4,575.7
2014	1.86	803.8	249.7	4,498.0
2015	1.84	813.7	253.0	4,552.0
2016	1.81	805.9	258.0	4,458.7
2017	1.76	810.4	258.2	4,492.0
2018	1.73	801.8	254.7	4,449.5
2019	1.70	789.5	253.2	4,365.3
2020	1.64	918.2	300.0	5,040.0
2021	1.66	930.8	334.3	4,907.8
2022	1.66	^d 867.4	294.7	^d 4,686.2
2023	1.62	^e 802.0	^e 270.2	^e 4,347.6
2024	^f 1.62	^g 769.7	^g 248.5	^g 4,244.5
Intermediate:
2025	1.64	764.4	248.8	4,201.9
2026	1.65	758.3	246.7	4,169.3
2027	1.67	752.3	244.7	4,136.9
2028	1.69	746.3	242.6	4,104.6
2029	1.70	740.3	240.5	4,072.5
2030	1.72	734.3	238.4	4,040.6
2031	1.74	728.3	236.2	4,009.0
2032	1.75	722.3	234.0	3,977.8
2033	1.77	716.3	231.8	3,946.8
2034	1.79	710.4	229.6	3,916.2
2035	1.80	704.5	227.4	3,885.9
2036	1.82	698.7	225.2	3,856.0
2037	1.83	693.0	223.0	3,826.5
2038	1.85	687.3	220.8	3,797.3
2039	1.86	681.6	218.6	3,768.4
2040	1.87	676.1	216.5	3,740.0
2041	1.88	670.5	214.4	3,711.8
2042	1.89	665.1	212.3	3,684.1
2043	1.89	659.7	210.2	3,656.6
2044	1.89	654.4	208.2	3,629.6
2045	1.90	649.2	206.1	3,602.8
2046	1.90	644.0	204.1	3,576.5
2047	1.90	638.8	202.1	3,550.4
2048	1.90	633.8	200.2	3,524.7
2049	1.90	628.8	198.2	3,499.3
2050	1.90	623.8	196.3	3,474.2
2051	1.90	618.9	194.4	3,449.4
2052	1.90	614.1	192.5	3,425.0
2053	1.90	609.3	190.7	3,400.8
2054	1.90	604.6	188.8	3,377.0
2055	1.90	600.0	187.0	3,353.4
2056	1.90	595.4	185.2	3,330.2
2057	1.90	590.9	183.4	3,307.2
2058	1.90	586.4	181.7	3,284.5
2059	1.90	581.9	180.0	3,262.1
2060	1.90	577.6	178.2	3,240.0
2061	1.90	573.2	176.5	3,218.2
2062	1.90	569.0	174.9	3,196.6
2063	1.90	564.8	173.2	3,175.3
2064	1.90	560.6	171.6	3,154.2
2065	1.90	556.5	170.0	3,133.4
2066	1.90	552.4	168.4	3,112.9
2067	1.90	548.4	166.8	3,092.6
2068	1.90	544.4	165.2	3,072.5
2069	1.90	540.5	163.7	3,052.7
2070	1.90	536.6	162.1	3,033.1
2071	1.90	532.7	160.6	3,013.7
2072	1.90	528.9	159.1	2,994.6
2073	1.90	525.2	157.6	2,975.7
2074	1.90	521.5	156.2	2,957.1
2075	1.90	517.8	154.7	2,938.6
2076	1.90	514.2	153.3	2,920.4
2077	1.90	510.6	151.9	2,902.4
2078	1.90	507.1	150.5	2,884.5
2079	1.90	503.6	149.1	2,866.9
2080	1.90	500.1	147.7	2,849.5
2081	1.90	496.7	146.4	2,832.3
2082	1.90	493.3	145.1	2,815.3
2083	1.90	490.0	143.7	2,798.5
2084	1.90	486.7	142.4	2,781.9
2085	1.90	483.4	141.1	2,765.4
2086	1.90	480.2	139.8	2,749.2
2087	1.90	477.0	138.6	2,733.1
2088	1.90	473.8	137.3	2,717.3
2089	1.90	470.7	136.1	2,701.5
2090	1.90	467.6	134.9	2,686.0
2091	1.90	464.5	133.7	2,670.7
2092	1.90	461.5	132.5	2,655.5
2093	1.90	458.5	131.3	2,640.4
2094	1.90	455.6	130.1	2,625.6
2095	1.90	452.6	128.9	2,610.9
2096	1.90	449.8	127.8	2,596.4
2097	1.90	446.9	126.7	2,582.0
2098	1.90	444.1	125.5	2,567.8
2099	1.90	441.3	124.4	2,553.7
2100	1.90	438.5	123.3	2,539.8
Low-cost:
2025	1.67	790.5	258.3	4,339.2
2026	1.70	788.7	257.7	4,328.7
2027	1.74	787.0	257.4	4,318.0
2028	1.77	785.1	256.9	4,307.1
2029	1.81	783.2	256.3	4,296.0
2030	1.84	781.2	255.7	4,284.9
2031	1.87	779.2	255.1	4,273.7
2032	1.90	777.1	254.4	4,262.5
2033	1.92	775.0	253.6	4,251.2
2034	1.95	772.9	252.9	4,239.9
2035	1.97	770.8	252.1	4,228.6
2036	2.00	768.6	251.3	4,217.3
2037	2.02	766.4	250.5	4,206.1
2038	2.04	764.3	249.7	4,194.8
2039	2.05	762.1	248.9	4,183.6
2040	2.07	760.0	248.1	4,172.5
2041	2.08	757.8	247.3	4,161.3
2042	2.08	755.6	246.5	4,150.2
2043	2.09	753.5	245.7	4,139.2
2044	2.09	751.3	244.9	4,128.2
2045	2.10	749.2	244.1	4,117.2
2046	2.10	747.1	243.2	4,106.3
2047	2.10	745.0	242.4	4,095.4
2048	2.10	742.8	241.6	4,084.6
2049	2.10	740.7	240.8	4,073.8
2050	2.10	738.6	240.0	4,063.0
2051	2.10	736.5	239.2	4,052.3
2052	2.10	734.4	238.4	4,041.6
2053	2.10	732.4	237.6	4,031.0
2054	2.10	730.3	236.8	4,020.5
2055	2.10	728.2	236.0	4,010.0
2056	2.10	726.2	235.2	3,999.5
2057	2.10	724.2	234.5	3,989.1
2058	2.10	722.1	233.7	3,978.7
2059	2.10	720.1	232.9	3,968.4
2060	2.10	718.1	232.1	3,958.1
2061	2.10	716.1	231.4	3,947.8
2062	2.10	714.1	230.6	3,937.7
2063	2.10	712.1	229.8	3,927.5
2064	2.10	710.1	229.1	3,917.4
2065	2.10	708.1	228.3	3,907.3
2066	2.10	706.2	227.5	3,897.3
2067	2.10	704.2	226.8	3,887.4
2068	2.10	702.3	226.0	3,877.4
2069	2.10	700.3	225.3	3,867.5
2070	2.10	698.4	224.6	3,857.7
2071	2.10	696.5	223.8	3,847.9
2072	2.10	694.6	223.1	3,838.1
2073	2.10	692.7	222.3	3,828.4
2074	2.10	690.8	221.6	3,818.7
2075	2.10	688.9	220.9	3,809.1
2076	2.10	687.0	220.1	3,799.5
2077	2.10	685.1	219.4	3,790.0
2078	2.10	683.2	218.7	3,780.5
2079	2.10	681.4	218.0	3,771.0
2080	2.10	679.5	217.3	3,761.6
2081	2.10	677.7	216.6	3,752.2
2082	2.10	675.8	215.8	3,742.9
2083	2.10	674.0	215.1	3,733.6
2084	2.10	672.2	214.4	3,724.3
2085	2.10	670.4	213.7	3,715.1
2086	2.10	668.6	213.0	3,705.9
2087	2.10	666.8	212.3	3,696.7
2088	2.10	665.0	211.6	3,687.6
2089	2.10	663.2	210.9	3,678.6
2090	2.10	661.4	210.3	3,669.5
2091	2.10	659.7	209.6	3,660.6
2092	2.10	657.9	208.9	3,651.6
2093	2.10	656.1	208.2	3,642.7
2094	2.10	654.4	207.5	3,633.8
2095	2.10	652.7	206.9	3,625.0
2096	2.10	650.9	206.2	3,616.2
2097	2.10	649.2	205.5	3,607.4
2098	2.10	647.5	204.8	3,598.7
2099	2.10	645.8	204.2	3,590.0
2100	2.10	644.1	203.5	3,581.4
High-cost:
2025	1.59	732.6	237.2	4,035.6
2026	1.58	721.1	233.0	3,975.1
2027	1.57	709.8	229.0	3,915.4
2028	1.56	698.6	224.9	3,856.4
2029	1.55	687.5	220.9	3,798.4
2030	1.54	676.5	216.8	3,741.5
2031	1.54	665.7	212.8	3,685.8
2032	1.54	655.1	208.8	3,631.2
2033	1.54	644.7	204.8	3,577.8
2034	1.54	634.6	200.9	3,525.6
2035	1.55	624.6	197.1	3,474.7
2036	1.55	614.8	193.4	3,424.9
2037	1.56	605.3	189.7	3,376.4
2038	1.56	596.0	186.1	3,329.0
2039	1.57	586.9	182.5	3,282.7
2040	1.58	578.0	179.0	3,237.6
2041	1.59	569.3	175.6	3,193.5
2042	1.59	560.8	172.3	3,150.5
2043	1.59	552.5	169.1	3,108.6
2044	1.59	544.4	165.9	3,067.7
2045	1.60	536.4	162.8	3,027.7
2046	1.60	528.7	159.7	2,988.7
2047	1.60	521.2	156.8	2,950.6
2048	1.60	513.8	153.9	2,913.5
2049	1.60	506.6	151.0	2,877.2
2050	1.60	499.5	148.2	2,841.7
2051	1.60	492.6	145.5	2,807.1
2052	1.60	485.9	142.8	2,773.2
2053	1.60	479.3	140.2	2,740.1
2054	1.60	472.9	137.7	2,707.8
2055	1.60	466.6	135.2	2,676.3
2056	1.60	460.5	132.7	2,645.4
2057	1.60	454.4	130.4	2,615.2
2058	1.60	448.6	128.0	2,585.7
2059	1.60	442.8	125.7	2,556.8
2060	1.60	437.2	123.5	2,528.6
2061	1.60	431.7	121.3	2,500.9
2062	1.60	426.3	119.2	2,473.9
2063	1.60	421.0	117.1	2,447.5
2064	1.60	415.9	115.0	2,421.5
2065	1.60	410.8	113.0	2,396.2
2066	1.60	405.9	111.1	2,371.4
2067	1.60	401.0	109.2	2,347.0
2068	1.60	396.3	107.3	2,323.2
2069	1.60	391.6	105.4	2,299.9
2070	1.60	387.1	103.6	2,277.0
2071	1.60	382.6	101.9	2,254.6
2072	1.60	378.3	100.1	2,232.6
2073	1.60	374.0	98.4	2,211.1
2074	1.60	369.8	96.8	2,190.0
2075	1.60	365.7	95.1	2,169.3
2076	1.60	361.6	93.5	2,148.9
2077	1.60	357.7	92.0	2,129.0
2078	1.60	353.8	90.5	2,109.5
2079	1.60	350.0	89.0	2,090.3
2080	1.60	346.2	87.5	2,071.4
2081	1.60	342.6	86.0	2,052.9
2082	1.60	339.0	84.6	2,034.8
2083	1.60	335.5	83.2	2,017.0
2084	1.60	332.0	81.9	1,999.5
2085	1.60	328.6	80.6	1,982.3
2086	1.60	325.3	79.3	1,965.4
2087	1.60	322.0	78.0	1,948.8
2088	1.60	318.8	76.7	1,932.5
2089	1.60	315.6	75.5	1,916.4
2090	1.60	312.5	74.3	1,900.7
2091	1.60	309.4	73.1	1,885.2
2092	1.60	306.4	71.9	1,869.9
2093	1.60	303.5	70.8	1,854.9
2094	1.60	300.6	69.7	1,840.2
2095	1.60	297.8	68.6	1,825.7
2096	1.60	295.0	67.5	1,811.4
2097	1.60	292.2	66.5	1,797.3
2098	1.60	289.5	65.4	1,783.5
2099	1.60	286.9	64.4	1,769.9
2100	1.60	284.2	63.4	1,756.5

^a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
^b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
^c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
^d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
^e Estimated using preliminary data.
^f Estimated using partial-year, provisional data.
^g Estimated, intermediate alternative.