Description of Proposed Provision:
C1.5: Starting in 2018, allow workers to choose whether to have their payroll tax rate reduced by 2 percentage points. For each calendar year that a worker chooses to have their payroll tax reduced, their normal retirement age (NRA) increases 1 month. We assume 2/3 of workers each year will choose this payroll reduction. The General Fund of the Treasury reimburses the OASI and DI Trust Funds for the reduction in payroll tax revenue.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201713.4113.03-0.38
298
0.000.000.00
201813.4912.93-0.56
287
-0.000.000.00
201913.6912.95-0.75
273
-0.010.000.01
202013.8412.96-0.88
259
-0.020.000.02
202113.9912.99-1.00
245
-0.030.000.03
202214.2213.02-1.19
231
-0.040.000.04
202314.4913.05-1.44
216
-0.05-0.000.05
202414.7613.08-1.68
201
-0.07-0.000.07
202515.0213.10-1.92
185
-0.08-0.000.08
202615.2813.13-2.14
168
-0.09-0.000.09
202715.5113.15-2.36
151
-0.11-0.000.11
202815.7313.16-2.56
134
-0.12-0.000.12
202915.9313.18-2.75
117
-0.14-0.000.14
203016.1113.19-2.92
99
-0.16-0.000.15
203116.2713.20-3.07
82
-0.18-0.000.17
203216.4013.21-3.19
64
-0.20-0.010.20
203316.5113.22-3.29
45
-0.23-0.010.22
203416.5913.23-3.37
26
-0.26-0.010.25
203516.6413.23-3.41
6
-0.28-0.010.27
203616.6813.23-3.45
----
-0.31-0.010.30
203716.6813.24-3.45
----
-0.34-0.010.32
203816.6613.24-3.42
----
-0.36-0.010.35
203916.6113.23-3.37
----
-0.39-0.010.38
204016.5413.23-3.31
----
-0.42-0.020.40
204116.4713.23-3.24
----
-0.44-0.020.43
204216.3913.22-3.17
----
-0.47-0.020.45
204316.3113.22-3.09
----
-0.50-0.020.48
204416.2313.22-3.01
----
-0.53-0.020.51
204516.1513.21-2.94
----
-0.56-0.020.54
204616.0813.21-2.87
----
-0.60-0.020.58
204716.0113.21-2.80
----
-0.63-0.030.61
204815.9413.21-2.74
----
-0.67-0.030.65
204915.8813.20-2.67
----
-0.71-0.030.68
205015.8213.20-2.62
----
-0.75-0.030.72
205115.7613.20-2.56
----
-0.79-0.030.76
205215.7213.20-2.52
----
-0.83-0.030.80
205315.6913.20-2.50
----
-0.87-0.040.84
205415.6713.20-2.48
----
-0.91-0.040.88
205515.6713.20-2.47
----
-0.95-0.040.91
205615.6713.20-2.47
----
-0.99-0.040.95
205715.6713.20-2.47
----
-1.03-0.040.98
205815.6813.20-2.48
----
-1.06-0.041.02
205915.6913.20-2.49
----
-1.09-0.051.05
206015.7113.21-2.51
----
-1.12-0.051.07
206115.7313.21-2.52
----
-1.14-0.051.09
206215.7613.21-2.55
----
-1.16-0.051.11
206315.7913.21-2.58
----
-1.18-0.051.12
206415.8313.21-2.62
----
-1.19-0.051.13
206515.8713.21-2.65
----
-1.20-0.051.14
206615.9213.22-2.70
----
-1.20-0.061.15
206715.9613.22-2.74
----
-1.21-0.061.15
206816.0013.22-2.78
----
-1.22-0.061.16
206916.0513.22-2.82
----
-1.23-0.061.17
207016.0913.23-2.86
----
-1.24-0.061.18
207116.1213.23-2.89
----
-1.25-0.061.19
207216.1513.23-2.92
----
-1.26-0.061.20
207316.1813.23-2.95
----
-1.27-0.061.21
207416.2113.24-2.97
----
-1.27-0.061.21
207516.2313.24-3.00
----
-1.27-0.061.21
207616.2513.24-3.01
----
-1.27-0.061.21
207716.2613.24-3.02
----
-1.26-0.061.20
207816.2613.24-3.02
----
-1.26-0.061.20
207916.2613.24-3.02
----
-1.26-0.061.20
208016.2513.24-3.01
----
-1.26-0.061.20
208116.2513.24-3.01
----
-1.26-0.061.20
208216.2413.24-3.01
----
-1.26-0.061.20
208316.2513.24-3.01
----
-1.26-0.061.20
208416.2613.24-3.02
----
-1.27-0.061.21
208516.2713.24-3.03
----
-1.28-0.061.22
208616.2913.24-3.05
----
-1.29-0.061.23
208716.3213.24-3.07
----
-1.30-0.061.24
208816.3513.24-3.10
----
-1.31-0.061.25
208916.3913.25-3.14
----
-1.32-0.061.25
209016.4313.25-3.18
----
-1.32-0.061.26
209116.4713.25-3.22
----
-1.33-0.061.26
209216.5113.25-3.25
----
-1.34-0.061.27


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2017-2091 15.97% 13.81% -2.16%
2035
-0.70% -0.03% 0.67%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.