Description of Proposed Provision:
C2.5: Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year starting for those age 62 in 2018 until the NRA reaches 70 in 2033. Thereafter, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) from 62 to 64 at the same time the NRA increases from 67 to 69; that is, for those attaining age 62 in 2021 through 2028. Keep EEA at 64 thereafter.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.48 | 12.93 | -0.55 | 288 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2019 | 13.67 | 12.94 | -0.73 | 273 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2020 | 13.82 | 12.96 | -0.86 | 260 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2021 | 13.97 | 12.99 | -0.97 | 246 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2022 | 14.19 | 13.02 | -1.17 | 232 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2023 | 14.46 | 13.05 | -1.42 | 217 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2024 | 14.73 | 13.08 | -1.65 | 202 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.10 | -1.88 | 186 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.11 | ||
| 2026 | 15.25 | 13.14 | -2.11 | 170 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.13 | ||
| 2027 | 15.43 | 13.16 | -2.27 | 153 | -0.19 | 0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2028 | 15.59 | 13.17 | -2.42 | 137 | -0.26 | 0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2029 | 15.74 | 13.19 | -2.55 | 121 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 | ||
| 2030 | 15.87 | 13.20 | -2.67 | 105 | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 | ||
| 2031 | 15.96 | 13.21 | -2.75 | 89 | -0.49 | -0.00 | 0.49 | ||
| 2032 | 16.04 | 13.21 | -2.83 | 72 | -0.57 | -0.01 | 0.56 | ||
| 2033 | 16.11 | 13.22 | -2.89 | 56 | -0.63 | -0.01 | 0.62 | ||
| 2034 | 16.17 | 13.22 | -2.94 | 39 | -0.68 | -0.01 | 0.67 | ||
| 2035 | 16.20 | 13.23 | -2.97 | 21 | -0.73 | -0.01 | 0.72 | ||
| 2036 | 16.25 | 13.24 | -3.01 | 3 | -0.74 | -0.01 | 0.73 | ||
| 2037 | 16.25 | 13.24 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.01 | 0.76 | ||
| 2038 | 16.21 | 13.24 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.01 | 0.81 | ||
| 2039 | 16.13 | 13.24 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.01 | 0.86 | ||
| 2040 | 16.03 | 13.24 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.01 | 0.92 | ||
| 2041 | 15.89 | 13.23 | -2.65 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.01 | 1.02 | ||
| 2042 | 15.75 | 13.23 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.01 | 1.10 | ||
| 2043 | 15.62 | 13.22 | -2.40 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.02 | 1.17 | ||
| 2044 | 15.51 | 13.22 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.02 | 1.23 | ||
| 2045 | 15.41 | 13.22 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.02 | 1.29 | ||
| 2046 | 15.33 | 13.21 | -2.12 | ---- | -1.35 | -0.02 | 1.33 | ||
| 2047 | 15.25 | 13.21 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.39 | -0.03 | 1.37 | ||
| 2048 | 15.18 | 13.21 | -1.97 | ---- | -1.44 | -0.03 | 1.41 | ||
| 2049 | 15.11 | 13.20 | -1.90 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.03 | 1.45 | ||
| 2050 | 15.04 | 13.20 | -1.84 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.03 | 1.50 | ||
| 2051 | 14.97 | 13.20 | -1.77 | ---- | -1.58 | -0.03 | 1.55 | ||
| 2052 | 14.93 | 13.20 | -1.73 | ---- | -1.63 | -0.03 | 1.60 | ||
| 2053 | 14.90 | 13.20 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.67 | -0.04 | 1.64 | ||
| 2054 | 14.88 | 13.20 | -1.68 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.04 | 1.68 | ||
| 2055 | 14.87 | 13.20 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.75 | -0.04 | 1.71 | ||
| 2056 | 14.87 | 13.20 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.04 | 1.74 | ||
| 2057 | 14.88 | 13.20 | -1.68 | ---- | -1.81 | -0.04 | 1.77 | ||
| 2058 | 14.89 | 13.20 | -1.69 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.04 | 1.80 | ||
| 2059 | 14.91 | 13.20 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.88 | -0.05 | 1.83 | ||
| 2060 | 14.92 | 13.21 | -1.72 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.05 | 1.86 | ||
| 2061 | 14.94 | 13.21 | -1.74 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.05 | 1.88 | ||
| 2062 | 14.96 | 13.21 | -1.75 | ---- | -1.96 | -0.05 | 1.91 | ||
| 2063 | 14.98 | 13.21 | -1.77 | ---- | -1.99 | -0.05 | 1.94 | ||
| 2064 | 14.99 | 13.21 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.03 | -0.05 | 1.98 | ||
| 2065 | 15.00 | 13.21 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.07 | -0.06 | 2.01 | ||
| 2066 | 15.01 | 13.21 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.11 | -0.06 | 2.05 | ||
| 2067 | 15.02 | 13.21 | -1.80 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.06 | 2.09 | ||
| 2068 | 15.03 | 13.21 | -1.82 | ---- | -2.19 | -0.06 | 2.13 | ||
| 2069 | 15.05 | 13.22 | -1.83 | ---- | -2.23 | -0.07 | 2.16 | ||
| 2070 | 15.06 | 13.22 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.27 | -0.07 | 2.20 | ||
| 2071 | 15.07 | 13.22 | -1.85 | ---- | -2.30 | -0.07 | 2.24 | ||
| 2072 | 15.07 | 13.22 | -1.85 | ---- | -2.34 | -0.07 | 2.27 | ||
| 2073 | 15.08 | 13.22 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.37 | -0.07 | 2.30 | ||
| 2074 | 15.08 | 13.22 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.07 | 2.33 | ||
| 2075 | 15.08 | 13.22 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.07 | 2.35 | ||
| 2076 | 15.08 | 13.22 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.08 | 2.37 | ||
| 2077 | 15.06 | 13.22 | -1.84 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.08 | 2.38 | ||
| 2078 | 15.03 | 13.22 | -1.82 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.08 | 2.41 | ||
| 2079 | 15.00 | 13.21 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.52 | -0.08 | 2.44 | ||
| 2080 | 14.96 | 13.21 | -1.74 | ---- | -2.55 | -0.09 | 2.47 | ||
| 2081 | 14.91 | 13.21 | -1.70 | ---- | -2.59 | -0.09 | 2.51 | ||
| 2082 | 14.88 | 13.21 | -1.67 | ---- | -2.63 | -0.09 | 2.54 | ||
| 2083 | 14.85 | 13.21 | -1.64 | ---- | -2.66 | -0.09 | 2.58 | ||
| 2084 | 14.83 | 13.21 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.70 | -0.09 | 2.61 | ||
| 2085 | 14.83 | 13.21 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.72 | -0.09 | 2.63 | ||
| 2086 | 14.83 | 13.21 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.09 | 2.66 | ||
| 2087 | 14.84 | 13.21 | -1.63 | ---- | -2.78 | -0.10 | 2.68 | ||
| 2088 | 14.86 | 13.21 | -1.65 | ---- | -2.80 | -0.10 | 2.70 | ||
| 2089 | 14.89 | 13.21 | -1.68 | ---- | -2.81 | -0.10 | 2.71 | ||
| 2090 | 14.92 | 13.21 | -1.71 | ---- | -2.83 | -0.10 | 2.72 | ||
| 2091 | 14.96 | 13.21 | -1.75 | ---- | -2.84 | -0.10 | 2.73 | ||
| 2092 | 14.99 | 13.21 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.85 | -0.11 | 2.74 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.28% | 13.80% | -1.47% | 2036 | -1.39% | -0.03% | 1.35% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.