Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.6: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 percent in 2020, 12.9 percent in 2028, 13.3 in percent in 2038, 13.8 percent in 2048, 14.4 percent in 2068, and 14.5 percent in 2083 and later.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201713.4113.03-0.38
298
0.000.000.00
201813.4912.93-0.56
287
0.000.000.00
201913.7012.95-0.75
273
0.000.000.00
202013.8513.14-0.71
259
0.000.180.18
202114.0213.18-0.83
246
-0.000.190.19
202214.2613.21-1.04
233
-0.000.190.19
202314.5413.24-1.30
219
-0.000.190.19
202414.8313.27-1.55
204
-0.000.190.19
202515.1013.29-1.80
188
-0.000.190.19
202615.3713.33-2.04
172
-0.000.190.19
202715.6213.34-2.27
156
-0.000.190.19
202815.8513.63-2.22
139
-0.000.460.46
202916.0613.66-2.41
124
-0.000.480.48
203016.2613.67-2.59
109
-0.000.480.48
203116.4513.68-2.76
93
-0.000.480.48
203216.6013.70-2.91
77
-0.000.480.48
203316.7413.70-3.03
60
-0.000.480.48
203416.8513.71-3.13
43
-0.000.480.48
203516.9213.72-3.21
25
-0.000.480.48
203616.9913.72-3.26
6
-0.000.480.48
203717.0213.72-3.29
----
-0.000.480.48
203817.0214.09-2.93
----
-0.000.840.84
203916.9914.11-2.89
----
-0.000.860.86
204016.9614.11-2.85
----
-0.000.860.86
204116.9114.10-2.81
----
-0.010.860.86
204216.8614.10-2.75
----
-0.010.860.86
204316.8014.10-2.70
----
-0.010.860.86
204416.7514.10-2.66
----
-0.010.860.86
204516.7114.10-2.62
----
-0.010.860.87
204616.6714.09-2.58
----
-0.010.860.87
204716.6414.09-2.55
----
-0.010.860.87
204816.6114.54-2.06
----
-0.011.311.32
204916.5814.56-2.01
----
-0.011.331.34
205016.5614.56-1.99
----
-0.011.331.34
205116.5414.56-1.98
----
-0.011.331.34
205216.5414.57-1.98
----
-0.011.331.35
205316.5614.57-1.99
----
-0.011.331.35
205416.5714.57-2.01
----
-0.011.331.35
205516.6014.57-2.03
----
-0.021.331.35
205616.6414.57-2.07
----
-0.021.331.35
205716.6814.58-2.10
----
-0.021.331.35
205816.7214.58-2.14
----
-0.021.331.35
205916.7614.58-2.18
----
-0.021.331.35
206016.8114.59-2.22
----
-0.021.331.36
206116.8514.59-2.26
----
-0.021.331.36
206216.9014.59-2.30
----
-0.021.341.36
206316.9514.60-2.35
----
-0.021.341.36
206416.9914.60-2.39
----
-0.031.341.36
206517.0414.60-2.44
----
-0.031.341.36
206617.0914.61-2.48
----
-0.031.341.36
206717.1414.61-2.53
----
-0.031.341.37
206817.1915.16-2.04
----
-0.031.881.91
206917.2415.19-2.06
----
-0.031.901.94
207017.2915.19-2.10
----
-0.031.911.94
207117.3415.19-2.14
----
-0.031.911.94
207217.3815.20-2.18
----
-0.041.911.94
207317.4115.20-2.21
----
-0.041.911.94
207417.4415.20-2.24
----
-0.041.911.95
207517.4615.20-2.26
----
-0.041.911.95
207617.4815.21-2.27
----
-0.041.911.95
207717.4815.21-2.28
----
-0.041.911.95
207817.4815.21-2.27
----
-0.041.911.95
207917.4715.21-2.27
----
-0.041.911.95
208017.4715.21-2.26
----
-0.041.911.95
208117.4615.21-2.25
----
-0.051.911.96
208217.4615.21-2.25
----
-0.051.911.96
208317.4615.30-2.17
----
-0.052.002.05
208417.4815.30-2.17
----
-0.052.012.06
208517.5015.31-2.19
----
-0.052.012.06
208617.5315.31-2.22
----
-0.052.012.06
208717.5615.31-2.25
----
-0.052.012.06
208817.6015.31-2.29
----
-0.052.012.06
208917.6515.32-2.33
----
-0.052.012.06
209017.6915.32-2.37
----
-0.062.012.06
209117.7415.32-2.41
----
-0.062.012.07
209217.7915.33-2.46
----
-0.062.012.07


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2017-2091 16.65% 14.89% -1.75%
2036
-0.02% 1.06% 1.07%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.