Description of Proposed Provision:
A8: Starting December 2019, for OASI beneficiaries only (DI beneficiaries would only be affected when their benefit converts to OASI at NRA), the annual COLA would be based on the chain-weighted version of the CPI-U.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.09 | 12.89 | -1.20 | 257 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2021 | 14.20 | 12.92 | -1.29 | 241 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2022 | 14.33 | 12.94 | -1.39 | 225 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2023 | 14.48 | 12.96 | -1.52 | 209 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2024 | 14.63 | 12.99 | -1.64 | 193 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2025 | 14.77 | 13.00 | -1.77 | 177 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2026 | 14.91 | 13.12 | -1.79 | 161 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2027 | 15.09 | 13.14 | -1.95 | 146 | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.26 | ||
| 2028 | 15.27 | 13.15 | -2.12 | 130 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2029 | 15.45 | 13.17 | -2.28 | 115 | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2030 | 15.61 | 13.18 | -2.43 | 100 | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2031 | 15.76 | 13.19 | -2.57 | 84 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2032 | 15.89 | 13.20 | -2.69 | 68 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2033 | 16.00 | 13.21 | -2.79 | 52 | -0.45 | -0.03 | 0.42 | ||
| 2034 | 16.09 | 13.22 | -2.87 | 35 | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2035 | 16.16 | 13.23 | -2.93 | 18 | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2036 | 16.21 | 13.23 | -2.98 | 0 | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2037 | 16.25 | 13.23 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2038 | 16.27 | 13.24 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2039 | 16.27 | 13.24 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2040 | 16.26 | 13.24 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2041 | 16.23 | 13.24 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2042 | 16.18 | 13.24 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2043 | 16.14 | 13.24 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2044 | 16.09 | 13.23 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2045 | 16.05 | 13.23 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2046 | 16.02 | 13.23 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2047 | 15.99 | 13.23 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2048 | 15.96 | 13.23 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2049 | 15.94 | 13.23 | -2.71 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2050 | 15.93 | 13.23 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2051 | 15.92 | 13.23 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2052 | 15.92 | 13.23 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2053 | 15.93 | 13.23 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2054 | 15.95 | 13.24 | -2.71 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2055 | 15.98 | 13.24 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2056 | 16.01 | 13.24 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2057 | 16.05 | 13.25 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2058 | 16.10 | 13.25 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2059 | 16.15 | 13.25 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2060 | 16.19 | 13.26 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2061 | 16.24 | 13.26 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2062 | 16.29 | 13.27 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2063 | 16.34 | 13.27 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2064 | 16.39 | 13.27 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2065 | 16.44 | 13.28 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2066 | 16.49 | 13.28 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2067 | 16.55 | 13.28 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2068 | 16.60 | 13.29 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2069 | 16.66 | 13.29 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2070 | 16.72 | 13.30 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2071 | 16.77 | 13.30 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2072 | 16.82 | 13.30 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2073 | 16.86 | 13.31 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2074 | 16.89 | 13.31 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2075 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2076 | 16.94 | 13.31 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2077 | 16.95 | 13.31 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2078 | 16.95 | 13.32 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2079 | 16.94 | 13.31 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2080 | 16.93 | 13.31 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2081 | 16.91 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2082 | 16.89 | 13.31 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2083 | 16.87 | 13.31 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2084 | 16.86 | 13.31 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2085 | 16.85 | 13.31 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2086 | 16.85 | 13.31 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2087 | 16.85 | 13.31 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2088 | 16.86 | 13.31 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2089 | 16.89 | 13.31 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2090 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2091 | 16.95 | 13.32 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2092 | 16.99 | 13.32 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2093 | 17.04 | 13.32 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.16% | 13.81% | -2.35% | 2036 | -0.52% | -0.03% | 0.49% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.