Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.8: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2058: a) the 32 percent PIA factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent PIA factor reduces to 5 percent.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.97 | 171 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.17 | -2.40 | 121 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 15.78 | 13.19 | -2.59 | 104 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2030 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | 87 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2031 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.92 | 69 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2032 | 16.27 | 13.23 | -3.05 | 52 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2033 | 16.39 | 13.24 | -3.16 | 34 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2034 | 16.49 | 13.24 | -3.24 | 15 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2035 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2036 | 16.60 | 13.25 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2037 | 16.63 | 13.26 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2038 | 16.64 | 13.26 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2039 | 16.61 | 13.26 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2040 | 16.57 | 13.26 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2041 | 16.52 | 13.26 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2042 | 16.44 | 13.25 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2043 | 16.36 | 13.25 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2044 | 16.27 | 13.25 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2045 | 16.19 | 13.24 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2046 | 16.11 | 13.24 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2047 | 16.03 | 13.24 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2048 | 15.95 | 13.23 | -2.72 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2049 | 15.87 | 13.23 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2050 | 15.80 | 13.23 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2051 | 15.73 | 13.22 | -2.51 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2052 | 15.67 | 13.22 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2053 | 15.62 | 13.22 | -2.40 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2054 | 15.57 | 13.22 | -2.35 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.06 | 0.94 | ||
| 2055 | 15.53 | 13.22 | -2.31 | ---- | -1.06 | -0.06 | 1.00 | ||
| 2056 | 15.50 | 13.22 | -2.28 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2057 | 15.47 | 13.22 | -2.25 | ---- | -1.20 | -0.07 | 1.13 | ||
| 2058 | 15.44 | 13.22 | -2.23 | ---- | -1.27 | -0.07 | 1.20 | ||
| 2059 | 15.42 | 13.22 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.08 | 1.26 | ||
| 2060 | 15.40 | 13.21 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.41 | -0.08 | 1.33 | ||
| 2061 | 15.38 | 13.21 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.08 | 1.39 | ||
| 2062 | 15.36 | 13.21 | -2.15 | ---- | -1.55 | -0.09 | 1.46 | ||
| 2063 | 15.35 | 13.21 | -2.13 | ---- | -1.61 | -0.09 | 1.52 | ||
| 2064 | 15.33 | 13.21 | -2.12 | ---- | -1.68 | -0.10 | 1.58 | ||
| 2065 | 15.32 | 13.21 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.74 | -0.10 | 1.64 | ||
| 2066 | 15.32 | 13.21 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.81 | -0.10 | 1.70 | ||
| 2067 | 15.32 | 13.22 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.11 | 1.76 | ||
| 2068 | 15.32 | 13.22 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.92 | -0.11 | 1.81 | ||
| 2069 | 15.33 | 13.22 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.97 | -0.11 | 1.86 | ||
| 2070 | 15.34 | 13.22 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.02 | -0.12 | 1.91 | ||
| 2071 | 15.35 | 13.22 | -2.13 | ---- | -2.07 | -0.12 | 1.95 | ||
| 2072 | 15.35 | 13.22 | -2.13 | ---- | -2.12 | -0.12 | 1.99 | ||
| 2073 | 15.36 | 13.22 | -2.14 | ---- | -2.16 | -0.13 | 2.03 | ||
| 2074 | 15.36 | 13.22 | -2.14 | ---- | -2.20 | -0.13 | 2.07 | ||
| 2075 | 15.36 | 13.22 | -2.13 | ---- | -2.23 | -0.13 | 2.10 | ||
| 2076 | 15.35 | 13.22 | -2.13 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.13 | 2.13 | ||
| 2077 | 15.34 | 13.22 | -2.11 | ---- | -2.29 | -0.13 | 2.16 | ||
| 2078 | 15.31 | 13.22 | -2.09 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.14 | 2.18 | ||
| 2079 | 15.29 | 13.22 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.14 | 2.20 | ||
| 2080 | 15.26 | 13.22 | -2.04 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.14 | 2.21 | ||
| 2081 | 15.23 | 13.22 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.14 | 2.22 | ||
| 2082 | 15.20 | 13.21 | -1.98 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.14 | 2.24 | ||
| 2083 | 15.17 | 13.21 | -1.96 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.25 | ||
| 2084 | 15.14 | 13.21 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.25 | ||
| 2085 | 15.13 | 13.21 | -1.92 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.14 | 2.26 | ||
| 2086 | 15.12 | 13.21 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.41 | -0.14 | 2.27 | ||
| 2087 | 15.11 | 13.21 | -1.90 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.14 | 2.28 | ||
| 2088 | 15.12 | 13.21 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.14 | 2.28 | ||
| 2089 | 15.13 | 13.21 | -1.92 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.14 | 2.29 | ||
| 2090 | 15.16 | 13.21 | -1.94 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.14 | 2.30 | ||
| 2091 | 15.18 | 13.21 | -1.97 | ---- | -2.45 | -0.14 | 2.31 | ||
| 2092 | 15.22 | 13.22 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.14 | 2.32 | ||
| 2093 | 15.26 | 13.22 | -2.04 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.15 | 2.32 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.69% | 13.79% | -1.91% | 2034 | -0.99% | -0.06% | 0.94% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.