Single-Year Tables Historical Data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions


Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,  a
Calendar Years 1940-2095


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate  b
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate  c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.4
1961   3.56   1,420.8   488.0   7,640.2
1962   3.42   1,448.5   493.7   7,814.1
1963   3.30   1,472.5   501.3   7,947.7
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.3
1966   2.67   1,431.8   497.1   7,663.7
1967   2.53   1,393.6   488.5   7,427.9
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.2   491.7   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.5   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   463.0   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.2   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.8   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.7   249.1   4,631.3
2012   1.87   811.7   248.6   4,565.6
2013   1.85   812.2   249.4   4,564.6
2014   1.86   804.9   251.4   4,495.1
2015   1.84   815.0   254.9   4,549.7
2016   1.82    d 808.2   260.5    d 4,460.0
2017   1.76    d 802.7    d 250.6    d 4,483.6
2018    e 1.74    e 791.8    e 249.3    e 4,408.3

Intermediate:
2019   1.75   785.9   247.7   4,374.0
2020   1.76   779.9   245.9   4,339.7
2021   1.79   773.7   243.9   4,305.5
2022   1.84   767.4   241.8   4,271.5
2023   1.90   761.0   239.5   4,237.7
2024   1.95   754.6   237.2   4,204.1
2025   1.98   748.2   234.8   4,170.8
2026   1.99   741.8   232.4   4,137.8
2027   2.00   735.4   230.0   4,105.1
2028   2.00   729.0   227.5   4,072.8
2029   2.00   722.7   225.0   4,040.9
2030   2.00   716.5   222.6   4,009.3
2031   2.00   710.3   220.2   3,978.1
2032   2.00   704.2   217.7   3,947.3
2033   2.00   698.1   215.3   3,916.9
2034   2.00   692.1   213.0   3,886.8
2035   2.00   686.2   210.6   3,857.2
2036   2.00   680.4   208.3   3,827.9
2037   2.00   674.6   206.0   3,799.0
2038   2.00   668.9   203.7   3,770.4
2039   2.00   663.3   201.5   3,742.2
2040   2.00   657.7   199.3   3,714.4
2041   2.00   652.3   197.1   3,687.0
2042   2.00   646.8   194.9   3,659.9
2043   2.00   641.5   192.8   3,633.1
2044   2.00   636.2   190.7   3,606.7
2045   2.00   631.0   188.6   3,580.6
2046   2.00   625.9   186.6   3,554.9
2047   2.00   620.8   184.6   3,529.5
2048   2.00   615.8   182.6   3,504.4
2049   2.00   610.9   180.6   3,479.6
2050   2.00   606.0   178.7   3,455.2
2051   2.00   601.2   176.8   3,431.0
2052   2.00   596.5   174.9   3,407.2
2053   2.00   591.8   173.0   3,383.6
2054   2.00   587.1   171.2   3,360.4
2055   2.00   582.6   169.4   3,337.4
2056   2.00   578.1   167.6   3,314.7
2057   2.00   573.6   165.9   3,292.3
2058   2.00   569.2   164.1   3,270.2
2059   2.00   564.9   162.4   3,248.3
2060   2.00   560.6   160.7   3,226.7
2061   2.00   556.4   159.1   3,205.4
2062   2.00   552.2   157.4   3,184.3
2063   2.00   548.1   155.8   3,163.4
2064   2.00   544.0   154.2   3,142.9
2065   2.00   540.0   152.6   3,122.5
2066   2.00   536.0   151.1   3,102.4
2067   2.00   532.1   149.5   3,082.5
2068   2.00   528.2   148.0   3,062.9
2069   2.00   524.3   146.5   3,043.5
2070   2.00   520.6   145.0   3,024.3
2071   2.00   516.8   143.6   3,005.3
2072   2.00   513.1   142.1   2,986.6
2073   2.00   509.5   140.7   2,968.1
2074   2.00   505.9   139.3   2,949.7
2075   2.00   502.3   137.9   2,931.6
2076   2.00   498.8   136.6   2,913.7
2077   2.00   495.3   135.2   2,896.0
2078   2.00   491.8   133.9   2,878.5
2079   2.00   488.4   132.6   2,861.2
2080   2.00   485.1   131.3   2,844.0
2081   2.00   481.7   130.0   2,827.1
2082   2.00   478.5   128.7   2,810.3
2083   2.00   475.2   127.5   2,793.7
2084   2.00   472.0   126.2   2,777.4
2085   2.00   468.8   125.0   2,761.1
2086   2.00   465.7   123.8   2,745.1
2087   2.00   462.6   122.6   2,729.2
2088   2.00   459.5   121.4   2,713.5
2089   2.00   456.5   120.3   2,698.0
2090   2.00   453.5   119.1   2,682.6
2091   2.00   450.5   118.0   2,667.4
2092   2.00   447.6   116.9   2,652.3
2093   2.00   444.7   115.8   2,637.4
2094   2.00   441.8   114.7   2,622.7
2095   2.00   438.9   113.6   2,608.1

Low-cost:
2019   1.79   794.3   250.5   4,420.4
2020   1.82   792.3   250.1   4,407.3
2021   1.87   789.9   249.4   4,393.3
2022   1.94   787.3   248.6   4,378.6
2023   2.02   784.5   247.7   4,363.2
2024   2.09   781.5   246.7   4,347.5
2025   2.14   778.5   245.6   4,331.3
2026   2.17   775.4   244.5   4,315.0
2027   2.20   772.2   243.3   4,298.4
2028   2.20   768.9   242.0   4,281.8
2029   2.20   765.6   240.8   4,265.0
2030   2.20   762.3   239.5   4,248.2
2031   2.20   759.0   238.2   4,231.5
2032   2.20   755.7   236.9   4,214.7
2033   2.20   752.4   235.6   4,198.0
2034   2.20   749.1   234.3   4,181.4
2035   2.20   745.8   233.0   4,164.8
2036   2.20   742.5   231.7   4,148.2
2037   2.20   739.2   230.4   4,131.8
2038   2.20   736.0   229.1   4,115.5
2039   2.20   732.7   227.8   4,099.2
2040   2.20   729.5   226.5   4,083.1
2041   2.20   726.3   225.3   4,067.0
2042   2.20   723.1   224.0   4,051.0
2043   2.20   720.0   222.7   4,035.1
2044   2.20   716.8   221.5   4,019.3
2045   2.20   713.7   220.2   4,003.7
2046   2.20   710.6   219.0   3,988.1
2047   2.20   707.5   217.7   3,972.6
2048   2.20   704.4   216.5   3,957.3
2049   2.20   701.4   215.3   3,942.0
2050   2.20   698.3   214.1   3,926.8
2051   2.20   695.3   212.9   3,911.8
2052   2.20   692.3   211.7   3,896.8
2053   2.20   689.4   210.5   3,882.0
2054   2.20   686.4   209.4   3,867.2
2055   2.20   683.5   208.2   3,852.6
2056   2.20   680.6   207.0   3,838.0
2057   2.20   677.7   205.9   3,823.5
2058   2.20   674.9   204.8   3,809.2
2059   2.20   672.0   203.6   3,794.9
2060   2.20   669.2   202.5   3,780.7
2061   2.20   666.4   201.4   3,766.6
2062   2.20   663.6   200.3   3,752.6
2063   2.20   660.8   199.2   3,738.7
2064   2.20   658.1   198.1   3,724.9
2065   2.20   655.3   197.0   3,711.2
2066   2.20   652.6   195.9   3,697.6
2067   2.20   649.9   194.9   3,684.0
2068   2.20   647.3   193.8   3,670.6
2069   2.20   644.6   192.8   3,657.2
2070   2.20   642.0   191.7   3,643.9
2071   2.20   639.3   190.7   3,630.7
2072   2.20   636.7   189.6   3,617.6
2073   2.20   634.1   188.6   3,604.6
2074   2.20   631.6   187.6   3,591.6
2075   2.20   629.0   186.6   3,578.8
2076   2.20   626.5   185.6   3,566.0
2077   2.20   623.9   184.6   3,553.3
2078   2.20   621.4   183.6   3,540.7
2079   2.20   618.9   182.6   3,528.1
2080   2.20   616.5   181.6   3,515.7
2081   2.20   614.0   180.7   3,503.3
2082   2.20   611.6   179.7   3,491.0
2083   2.20   609.1   178.7   3,478.7
2084   2.20   606.7   177.8   3,466.6
2085   2.20   604.3   176.8   3,454.5
2086   2.20   602.0   175.9   3,442.5
2087   2.20   599.6   175.0   3,430.6
2088   2.20   597.2   174.1   3,418.7
2089   2.20   594.9   173.1   3,407.0
2090   2.20   592.6   172.2   3,395.3
2091   2.20   590.3   171.3   3,383.6
2092   2.20   588.0   170.4   3,372.1
2093   2.20   585.7   169.5   3,360.6
2094   2.20   583.5   168.6   3,349.2
2095   2.20   581.2   167.8   3,337.8

High-cost:
2019   1.71   776.8   244.8   4,324.5
2020   1.70   766.4   241.4   4,266.7
2021   1.71   755.9   237.8   4,210.0
2022   1.74   745.3   234.1   4,154.2
2023   1.78   734.9   230.2   4,099.4
2024   1.80   724.5   226.4   4,045.6
2025   1.80   714.2   222.5   3,992.9
2026   1.80   704.1   218.6   3,941.2
2027   1.80   694.2   214.7   3,890.6
2028   1.80   684.4   210.9   3,841.0
2029   1.80   674.7   207.1   3,792.4
2030   1.80   665.3   203.4   3,744.9
2031   1.80   656.1   199.7   3,698.4
2032   1.80   647.0   196.1   3,652.8
2033   1.80   638.1   192.6   3,608.2
2034   1.80   629.4   189.1   3,564.6
2035   1.80   620.9   185.8   3,521.8
2036   1.80   612.5   182.4   3,480.0
2037   1.80   604.3   179.2   3,439.0
2038   1.80   596.3   176.0   3,398.9
2039   1.80   588.5   172.9   3,359.7
2040   1.80   580.9   169.8   3,321.2
2041   1.80   573.3   166.9   3,283.5
2042   1.80   566.0   163.9   3,246.6
2043   1.80   558.8   161.1   3,210.5
2044   1.80   551.7   158.3   3,175.0
2045   1.80   544.8   155.6   3,140.3
2046   1.80   538.1   152.9   3,106.2
2047   1.80   531.5   150.3   3,072.9
2048   1.80   525.0   147.7   3,040.2
2049   1.80   518.6   145.2   3,008.1
2050   1.80   512.4   142.8   2,976.6
2051   1.80   506.3   140.4   2,945.8
2052   1.80   500.3   138.0   2,915.5
2053   1.80   494.4   135.8   2,885.8
2054   1.80   488.7   133.5   2,856.6
2055   1.80   483.0   131.3   2,828.0
2056   1.80   477.5   129.2   2,799.9
2057   1.80   472.1   127.1   2,772.4
2058   1.80   466.8   125.0   2,745.3
2059   1.80   461.5   123.0   2,718.7
2060   1.80   456.4   121.0   2,692.6
2061   1.80   451.4   119.1   2,666.9
2062   1.80   446.5   117.2   2,641.7
2063   1.80   441.6   115.3   2,617.0
2064   1.80   436.9   113.5   2,592.6
2065   1.80   432.2   111.8   2,568.7
2066   1.80   427.6   110.0   2,545.2
2067   1.80   423.1   108.3   2,522.1
2068   1.80   418.7   106.6   2,499.4
2069   1.80   414.4   105.0   2,477.0
2070   1.80   410.1   103.4   2,455.0
2071   1.80   405.9   101.8   2,433.4
2072   1.80   401.8   100.2   2,412.1
2073   1.80   397.7   98.7   2,391.2
2074   1.80   393.7   97.2   2,370.6
2075   1.80   389.8   95.8   2,350.3
2076   1.80   386.0   94.4   2,330.3
2077   1.80   382.2   92.9   2,310.7
2078   1.80   378.5   91.6   2,291.3
2079   1.80   374.8   90.2   2,272.3
2080   1.80   371.2   88.9   2,253.5
2081   1.80   367.7   87.6   2,235.1
2082   1.80   364.2   86.3   2,216.8
2083   1.80   360.8   85.1   2,198.9
2084   1.80   357.4   83.8   2,181.2
2085   1.80   354.1   82.6   2,163.8
2086   1.80   350.8   81.4   2,146.7
2087   1.80   347.6   80.3   2,129.8
2088   1.80   344.4   79.1   2,113.1
2089   1.80   341.3   78.0   2,096.6
2090   1.80   338.2   76.9   2,080.4
2091   1.80   335.2   75.8   2,064.5
2092   1.80   332.2   74.8   2,048.7
2093   1.80   329.3   73.7   2,033.1
2094   1.80   326.4   72.7   2,017.8
2095   1.80   323.5   71.7   2,002.7

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated.
e Estimated, intermediate alternative.