Single-Year Tables Historical Data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions


Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,  a
Calendar Years 1940-2095


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate  b
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate  c
per 100,000, by age
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.4
1961   3.56   1,420.8   488.0   7,640.2
1962   3.42   1,448.5   493.7   7,814.1
1963   3.30   1,472.5   501.3   7,947.7
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.3
1966   2.67   1,431.8   497.1   7,663.7
1967   2.53   1,393.6   488.5   7,427.9
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.2   491.7   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.5   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   463.0   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.2   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,079.3   347.3   5,959.7
1988   1.92   1,070.3   346.3   5,897.1
1989   2.00   1,040.8   340.5   5,710.0
1990   2.07   1,021.3   333.6   5,606.3
1991   2.06   1,007.7   329.8   5,527.6
1992   2.04   992.7   322.4   5,461.5
1993   2.02   1,016.4   325.3   5,624.3
1994   2.00   1,004.1   321.8   5,553.3
1995   1.98   1,001.5   317.9   5,559.5
1996   1.98   987.8   306.6   5,529.1
1997   1.97   971.9   293.3   5,496.4
1998   2.00   963.8   285.4   5,487.1
1999   2.01   970.6   283.2   5,553.6
2000   2.05   960.7   281.0   5,492.3
2001   2.03   951.1   280.4   5,422.8
2002   2.03   947.0   279.0   5,400.6
2003   2.05   933.4   277.2   5,308.6
2004   2.06   898.9   269.7   5,093.9
2005   2.06   901.3   270.7   5,105.4
2006   2.11   876.1   267.6   4,933.5
2007   2.12   856.8   261.6   4,825.2
2008   2.07   857.0   258.8   4,845.5
2009   2.00   827.1   255.3   4,639.7
2010   1.93   821.3   248.5   4,640.1
2011   1.89   819.4   249.1   4,621.4
2012   1.87   812.0   248.6   4,568.2
2013   1.85   812.1   249.4   4,563.6
2014   1.86   805.3   251.5   4,497.8
2015   1.85    d 815.8   255.0    d 4,555.0
2016   1.82    e 791.0    e 245.8    e 4,425.8
2017    e 1.80    e 783.6    e 243.7    e 4,383.6

Intermediate:
2018   1.81   776.4   241.4   4,343.4
2019   1.82   769.3   239.1   4,304.7
2020   1.84   762.4   236.7   4,267.4
2021   1.86   755.5   234.2   4,231.1
2022   1.90   748.7   231.7   4,195.7
2023   1.94   742.0   229.2   4,161.1
2024   1.97   735.5   226.7   4,127.3
2025   1.99   728.9   224.2   4,094.1
2026    f 2.00   722.5   221.7   4,061.5
2027   2.00   716.2   219.3   4,029.4
2028   2.00   709.9   216.8   3,997.8
2029   2.00   703.8   214.4   3,966.8
2030   2.00   697.7   211.9   3,936.2
2031   2.00   691.7   209.6   3,906.0
2032   2.00   685.7   207.2   3,876.3
2033   2.00   679.9   204.9   3,847.0
2034   2.00   674.1   202.6   3,818.1
2035   2.00   668.4   200.3   3,789.5
2036   2.00   662.8   198.1   3,761.4
2037   2.00   657.3   195.8   3,733.7
2038   2.00   651.8   193.7   3,706.3
2039   2.00   646.4   191.5   3,679.2
2040   2.00   641.1   189.4   3,652.5
2041   2.00   635.8   187.3   3,626.2
2042   2.00   630.6   185.2   3,600.2
2043   2.00   625.5   183.2   3,574.6
2044   2.00   620.5   181.2   3,549.2
2045   2.00   615.5   179.2   3,524.2
2046   2.00   610.5   177.2   3,499.5
2047   2.00   605.7   175.3   3,475.1
2048   2.00   600.9   173.4   3,451.0
2049   2.00   596.2   171.5   3,427.2
2050   2.00   591.5   169.7   3,403.7
2051   2.00   586.9   167.9   3,380.5
2052   2.00   582.3   166.1   3,357.6
2053   2.00   577.8   164.3   3,335.0
2054   2.00   573.4   162.5   3,312.6
2055   2.00   569.0   160.8   3,290.5
2056   2.00   564.7   159.1   3,268.7
2057   2.00   560.4   157.4   3,247.1
2058   2.00   556.2   155.8   3,225.8
2059   2.00   552.0   154.1   3,204.8
2060   2.00   547.9   152.5   3,184.0
2061   2.00   543.8   150.9   3,163.4
2062   2.00   539.8   149.4   3,143.1
2063   2.00   535.9   147.8   3,123.0
2064   2.00   531.9   146.3   3,103.1
2065   2.00   528.1   144.8   3,083.5
2066   2.00   524.2   143.3   3,064.1
2067   2.00   520.5   141.8   3,045.0
2068   2.00   516.7   140.4   3,026.0
2069   2.00   513.0   138.9   3,007.3
2070   2.00   509.4   137.5   2,988.7
2071   2.00   505.8   136.1   2,970.4
2072   2.00   502.2   134.8   2,952.3
2073   2.00   498.7   133.4   2,934.4
2074   2.00   495.2   132.1   2,916.7
2075   2.00   491.8   130.7   2,899.2
2076   2.00   488.4   129.4   2,881.8
2077   2.00   485.1   128.1   2,864.7
2078   2.00   481.7   126.9   2,847.8
2079   2.00   478.5   125.6   2,831.0
2080   2.00   475.2   124.4   2,814.4
2081   2.00   472.0   123.1   2,798.0
2082   2.00   468.8   121.9   2,781.8
2083   2.00   465.7   120.7   2,765.7
2084   2.00   462.6   119.6   2,749.8
2085   2.00   459.5   118.4   2,734.1
2086   2.00   456.5   117.2   2,718.5
2087   2.00   453.5   116.1   2,703.1
2088   2.00   450.6   115.0   2,687.9
2089   2.00   447.6   113.9   2,672.8
2090   2.00   444.7   112.8   2,657.9
2091   2.00   441.9   111.7   2,643.1
2092   2.00   439.0   110.6   2,628.5
2093   2.00   436.2   109.6   2,614.1
2094   2.00   433.5   108.5   2,599.7
2095   2.00   430.7   107.5   2,585.6

Low-cost:
2018   1.85   791.1   245.8   4,426.8
2019   1.87   788.3   244.9   4,411.2
2020   1.91   785.3   243.9   4,395.2
2021   1.96   782.2   242.8   4,379.0
2022   2.01   779.1   241.6   4,362.5
2023   2.07   775.9   240.4   4,345.9
2024   2.11   772.6   239.2   4,329.2
2025   2.15   769.3   237.9   4,312.3
2026   2.18   766.0   236.6   4,295.5
2027   2.20   762.7   235.3   4,278.6
2028   2.20   759.3   234.0   4,261.8
2029   2.20   756.0   232.7   4,245.0
2030   2.20   752.7   231.4   4,228.2
2031   2.20   749.4   230.1   4,211.5
2032   2.20   746.1   228.8   4,194.9
2033   2.20   742.8   227.5   4,178.4
2034   2.20   739.5   226.2   4,161.9
2035   2.20   736.2   224.9   4,145.5
2036   2.20   733.0   223.6   4,129.3
2037   2.20   729.8   222.3   4,113.1
2038   2.20   726.6   221.0   4,097.0
2039   2.20   723.4   219.8   4,081.0
2040   2.20   720.2   218.5   4,065.2
2041   2.20   717.1   217.3   4,049.4
2042   2.20   713.9   216.0   4,033.7
2043   2.20   710.8   214.8   4,018.1
2044   2.20   707.8   213.6   4,002.6
2045   2.20   704.7   212.3   3,987.2
2046   2.20   701.6   211.1   3,972.0
2047   2.20   698.6   209.9   3,956.8
2048   2.20   695.6   208.7   3,941.7
2049   2.20   692.6   207.6   3,926.7
2050   2.20   689.7   206.4   3,911.8
2051   2.20   686.7   205.2   3,897.1
2052   2.20   683.8   204.1   3,882.4
2053   2.20   680.9   202.9   3,867.8
2054   2.20   678.0   201.8   3,853.3
2055   2.20   675.2   200.6   3,838.9
2056   2.20   672.3   199.5   3,824.6
2057   2.20   669.5   198.4   3,810.4
2058   2.20   666.7   197.3   3,796.3
2059   2.20   663.9   196.2   3,782.3
2060   2.20   661.1   195.1   3,768.4
2061   2.20   658.4   194.0   3,754.5
2062   2.20   655.7   192.9   3,740.8
2063   2.20   653.0   191.9   3,727.1
2064   2.20   650.3   190.8   3,713.6
2065   2.20   647.6   189.7   3,700.1
2066   2.20   644.9   188.7   3,686.7
2067   2.20   642.3   187.7   3,673.4
2068   2.20   639.7   186.6   3,660.2
2069   2.20   637.1   185.6   3,647.0
2070   2.20   634.5   184.6   3,634.0
2071   2.20   631.9   183.6   3,621.0
2072   2.20   629.3   182.6   3,608.1
2073   2.20   626.8   181.6   3,595.3
2074   2.20   624.3   180.6   3,582.6
2075   2.20   621.8   179.6   3,569.9
2076   2.20   619.3   178.6   3,557.3
2077   2.20   616.8   177.6   3,544.9
2078   2.20   614.4   176.7   3,532.4
2079   2.20   611.9   175.7   3,520.1
2080   2.20   609.5   174.8   3,507.9
2081   2.20   607.1   173.8   3,495.7
2082   2.20   604.7   172.9   3,483.6
2083   2.20   602.3   172.0   3,471.5
2084   2.20   599.9   171.0   3,459.6
2085   2.20   597.6   170.1   3,447.7
2086   2.20   595.3   169.2   3,435.9
2087   2.20   592.9   168.3   3,424.2
2088   2.20   590.6   167.4   3,412.5
2089   2.20   588.3   166.5   3,400.9
2090   2.20   586.1   165.6   3,389.4
2091   2.20   583.8   164.7   3,377.9
2092   2.20   581.6   163.9   3,366.6
2093   2.20   579.3   163.0   3,355.2
2094   2.20   577.1   162.1   3,344.0
2095   2.20   574.9   161.3   3,332.8

High-cost:
2018   1.77   760.7   236.6   4,255.3
2019   1.76   749.0   232.6   4,191.6
2020   1.76   737.6   228.6   4,130.9
2021   1.77   726.5   224.6   4,072.6
2022   1.79   715.7   220.6   4,016.5
2023   1.80   705.1   216.6   3,962.3
2024   1.80   694.9   212.7   3,909.8
2025   1.80   684.8   208.8   3,858.9
2026   1.80   675.0   204.9   3,809.3
2027   1.80   665.5   201.2   3,761.1
2028   1.80   656.1   197.5   3,714.0
2029   1.80   647.0   193.8   3,668.2
2030   1.80   638.0   190.3   3,623.4
2031   1.80   629.3   186.8   3,579.6
2032   1.80   620.7   183.4   3,536.9
2033   1.80   612.4   180.0   3,495.1
2034   1.80   604.2   176.8   3,454.2
2035   1.80   596.2   173.6   3,414.2
2036   1.80   588.4   170.4   3,375.0
2037   1.80   580.7   167.4   3,336.7
2038   1.80   573.2   164.4   3,299.2
2039   1.80   565.9   161.5   3,262.4
2040   1.80   558.7   158.6   3,226.4
2041   1.80   551.7   155.8   3,191.1
2042   1.80   544.8   153.1   3,156.5
2043   1.80   538.1   150.4   3,122.6
2044   1.80   531.5   147.8   3,089.3
2045   1.80   525.0   145.2   3,056.8
2046   1.80   518.6   142.8   3,024.8
2047   1.80   512.4   140.3   2,993.4
2048   1.80   506.3   137.9   2,962.7
2049   1.80   500.4   135.6   2,932.5
2050   1.80   494.5   133.3   2,902.8
2051   1.80   488.8   131.1   2,873.8
2052   1.80   483.1   128.9   2,845.2
2053   1.80   477.6   126.7   2,817.2
2054   1.80   472.2   124.6   2,789.7
2055   1.80   466.9   122.6   2,762.7
2056   1.80   461.7   120.6   2,736.1
2057   1.80   456.6   118.6   2,710.0
2058   1.80   451.6   116.7   2,684.4
2059   1.80   446.6   114.8   2,659.2
2060   1.80   441.8   112.9   2,634.5
2061   1.80   437.1   111.1   2,610.2
2062   1.80   432.4   109.4   2,586.3
2063   1.80   427.8   107.6   2,562.8
2064   1.80   423.3   105.9   2,539.7
2065   1.80   418.9   104.3   2,516.9
2066   1.80   414.6   102.6   2,494.6
2067   1.80   410.3   101.0   2,472.6
2068   1.80   406.2   99.5   2,450.9
2069   1.80   402.0   97.9   2,429.6
2070   1.80   398.0   96.4   2,408.7
2071   1.80   394.0   94.9   2,388.1
2072   1.80   390.1   93.5   2,367.8
2073   1.80   386.3   92.1   2,347.8
2074   1.80   382.5   90.7   2,328.1
2075   1.80   378.8   89.3   2,308.7
2076   1.80   375.1   88.0   2,289.6
2077   1.80   371.5   86.7   2,270.8
2078   1.80   368.0   85.4   2,252.3
2079   1.80   364.5   84.1   2,234.1
2080   1.80   361.1   82.9   2,216.1
2081   1.80   357.7   81.7   2,198.4
2082   1.80   354.4   80.5   2,180.9
2083   1.80   351.2   79.3   2,163.7
2084   1.80   347.9   78.1   2,146.8
2085   1.80   344.8   77.0   2,130.1
2086   1.80   341.7   75.9   2,113.6
2087   1.80   338.6   74.8   2,097.3
2088   1.80   335.6   73.7   2,081.3
2089   1.80   332.6   72.7   2,065.5
2090   1.80   329.7   71.7   2,049.9
2091   1.80   326.8   70.7   2,034.5
2092   1.80   323.9   69.7   2,019.3
2093   1.80   321.1   68.7   2,004.3
2094   1.80   318.4   67.7   1,989.5
2095   1.80   315.6   66.8   1,974.9

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated.
e Estimated, intermediate alternative.
f Under the intermediate assumptions, the ultimate value of the TFR (2.00) is reached in 2027. However, due to rounding, this table shows a 2.00 TFR for 2026.