Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2023 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.1   491.6   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.6   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   462.9   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.3   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.8   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.7   249.2   4,631.3
2012   1.87   811.8   248.8   4,565.6
2013   1.85   812.4   249.6   4,564.6
2014   1.86   805.2   251.7   4,495.1
2015   1.85   815.4   255.3   4,549.7
2016   1.82   808.7   260.9   4,461.0
2017   1.76   812.8   261.6   4,487.7
2018   1.73   803.7   258.7   4,437.4
2019   1.70   792.9   257.7   4,361.0
2020   1.64    d 922.4   305.7    d 5,034.2
2021   1.66    e 937.6    f 341.5    e 4,912.0
2022    f 1.69    f 860.3    f 285.7    f 4,691.2

Intermediate:
2023   1.70   798.0   264.6   4,354.9
2024   1.72   779.2   258.1   4,253.4
2025   1.74   768.2   254.0   4,196.9
2026   1.76   762.4   252.2   4,164.4
2027   1.79   756.5   250.2   4,132.1
2028   1.81   750.5   248.1   4,099.9
2029   1.83   744.5   246.0   4,067.9
2030   1.86   738.4   243.8   4,036.1
2031   1.87   732.4   241.6   4,004.6
2032   1.88   726.4   239.4   3,973.4
2033   1.89   720.4   237.1   3,942.6
2034   1.91   714.4   234.8   3,912.1
2035   1.92   708.5   232.6   3,881.9
2036   1.93   702.7   230.3   3,852.1
2037   1.95   696.9   228.1   3,822.6
2038   1.96   691.2   225.9   3,793.5
2039   1.97   685.5   223.7   3,764.7
2040   1.97   679.9   221.5   3,736.3
2041   1.98   674.4   219.3   3,708.3
2042   1.99   668.9   217.2   3,680.6
2043   1.99   663.5   215.0   3,653.3
2044   1.99   658.1   212.9   3,626.3
2045   2.00   652.8   210.8   3,599.6
2046   2.00   647.6   208.8   3,573.3
2047   2.00   642.4   206.7   3,547.3
2048   2.00   637.3   204.7   3,521.7
2049   2.00   632.3   202.7   3,496.3
2050   2.00   627.3   200.7   3,471.3
2051   2.00   622.4   198.8   3,446.6
2052   2.00   617.5   196.8   3,422.3
2053   2.00   612.7   194.9   3,398.2
2054   2.00   608.0   193.0   3,374.4
2055   2.00   603.3   191.2   3,350.9
2056   2.00   598.7   189.3   3,327.7
2057   2.00   594.1   187.5   3,304.9
2058   2.00   589.6   185.7   3,282.2
2059   2.00   585.1   183.9   3,259.9
2060   2.00   580.7   182.2   3,237.9
2061   2.00   576.3   180.4   3,216.1
2062   2.00   572.0   178.7   3,194.6
2063   2.00   567.8   177.0   3,173.3
2064   2.00   563.6   175.3   3,152.3
2065   2.00   559.4   173.7   3,131.6
2066   2.00   555.3   172.0   3,111.1
2067   2.00   551.3   170.4   3,090.8
2068   2.00   547.3   168.8   3,070.8
2069   2.00   543.3   167.2   3,051.1
2070   2.00   539.4   165.6   3,031.5
2071   2.00   535.5   164.1   3,012.2
2072   2.00   531.7   162.5   2,993.2
2073   2.00   527.9   161.0   2,974.3
2074   2.00   524.2   159.5   2,955.7
2075   2.00   520.5   158.0   2,937.3
2076   2.00   516.9   156.6   2,919.1
2077   2.00   513.3   155.1   2,901.2
2078   2.00   509.7   153.7   2,883.4
2079   2.00   506.2   152.3   2,865.8
2080   2.00   502.7   150.9   2,848.5
2081   2.00   499.2   149.5   2,831.3
2082   2.00   495.8   148.1   2,814.4
2083   2.00   492.5   146.7   2,797.6
2084   2.00   489.1   145.4   2,781.0
2085   2.00   485.9   144.1   2,764.6
2086   2.00   482.6   142.8   2,748.4
2087   2.00   479.4   141.5   2,732.4
2088   2.00   476.2   140.2   2,716.6
2089   2.00   473.0   138.9   2,700.9
2090   2.00   469.9   137.6   2,685.4
2091   2.00   466.9   136.4   2,670.1
2092   2.00   463.8   135.2   2,654.9
2093   2.00   460.8   134.0   2,640.0
2094   2.00   457.8   132.7   2,625.1
2095   2.00   454.9   131.6   2,610.5
2096   2.00   452.0   130.4   2,596.0
2097   2.00   449.1   129.2   2,581.7
2098   2.00   446.2   128.1   2,567.5
2099   2.00   443.4   126.9   2,553.4
2100   2.00   440.6   125.8   2,539.6

Low-cost:
2023   1.78   815.9   270.9   4,449.3
2024   1.83   801.1   266.0   4,368.9
2025   1.87   794.3   263.4   4,333.9
2026   1.91   792.8   263.3   4,323.4
2027   1.95   791.1   262.9   4,312.8
2028   1.98   789.3   262.5   4,301.9
2029   2.01   787.4   261.9   4,290.9
2030   2.05   785.5   261.4   4,279.8
2031   2.06   783.4   260.7   4,268.6
2032   2.08   781.4   260.0   4,257.4
2033   2.10   779.3   259.3   4,246.2
2034   2.11   777.1   258.5   4,234.9
2035   2.12   775.0   257.7   4,223.7
2036   2.14   772.8   256.9   4,212.4
2037   2.15   770.7   256.1   4,201.2
2038   2.16   768.5   255.3   4,190.0
2039   2.17   766.3   254.5   4,178.9
2040   2.18   764.1   253.7   4,167.7
2041   2.18   762.0   252.8   4,156.6
2042   2.19   759.8   252.0   4,145.6
2043   2.19   757.6   251.2   4,134.5
2044   2.19   755.5   250.3   4,123.6
2045   2.20   753.3   249.5   4,112.6
2046   2.20   751.2   248.7   4,101.7
2047   2.20   749.0   247.8   4,090.9
2048   2.20   746.9   247.0   4,080.1
2049   2.20   744.8   246.2   4,069.3
2050   2.20   742.7   245.3   4,058.6
2051   2.20   740.6   244.5   4,047.9
2052   2.20   738.5   243.7   4,037.3
2053   2.20   736.4   242.9   4,026.7
2054   2.20   734.3   242.1   4,016.2
2055   2.20   732.2   241.2   4,005.7
2056   2.20   730.2   240.4   3,995.3
2057   2.20   728.1   239.6   3,984.9
2058   2.20   726.1   238.8   3,974.5
2059   2.20   724.0   238.0   3,964.2
2060   2.20   722.0   237.2   3,954.0
2061   2.20   720.0   236.5   3,943.8
2062   2.20   718.0   235.7   3,933.6
2063   2.20   716.0   234.9   3,923.5
2064   2.20   714.0   234.1   3,913.4
2065   2.20   712.0   233.3   3,903.4
2066   2.20   710.0   232.5   3,893.4
2067   2.20   708.0   231.8   3,883.4
2068   2.20   706.1   231.0   3,873.5
2069   2.20   704.1   230.2   3,863.7
2070   2.20   702.2   229.5   3,853.9
2071   2.20   700.2   228.7   3,844.1
2072   2.20   698.3   228.0   3,834.4
2073   2.20   696.4   227.2   3,824.7
2074   2.20   694.5   226.4   3,815.0
2075   2.20   692.6   225.7   3,805.4
2076   2.20   690.7   225.0   3,795.9
2077   2.20   688.8   224.2   3,786.4
2078   2.20   686.9   223.5   3,776.9
2079   2.20   685.1   222.7   3,767.5
2080   2.20   683.2   222.0   3,758.1
2081   2.20   681.3   221.3   3,748.7
2082   2.20   679.5   220.5   3,739.4
2083   2.20   677.6   219.8   3,730.1
2084   2.20   675.8   219.1   3,720.9
2085   2.20   674.0   218.4   3,711.7
2086   2.20   672.2   217.7   3,702.5
2087   2.20   670.4   216.9   3,693.4
2088   2.20   668.6   216.2   3,684.3
2089   2.20   666.8   215.5   3,675.3
2090   2.20   665.0   214.8   3,666.3
2091   2.20   663.2   214.1   3,657.3
2092   2.20   661.4   213.4   3,648.4
2093   2.20   659.7   212.7   3,639.5
2094   2.20   657.9   212.0   3,630.7
2095   2.20   656.1   211.3   3,621.9
2096   2.20   654.4   210.6   3,613.1
2097   2.20   652.7   209.9   3,604.4
2098   2.20   650.9   209.3   3,595.7
2099   2.20   649.2   208.6   3,587.0
2100   2.20   647.5   207.9   3,578.4

High-cost:
2023   1.59   776.8   256.9   4,243.1
2024   1.57   752.7   248.5   4,114.9
2025   1.56   736.5   242.3   4,031.0
2026   1.56   725.2   238.4   3,970.7
2027   1.56   713.9   234.3   3,911.1
2028   1.57   702.6   230.2   3,852.3
2029   1.58   691.5   226.1   3,794.5
2030   1.59   680.5   221.9   3,737.8
2031   1.59   669.6   217.8   3,682.2
2032   1.60   659.0   213.7   3,627.7
2033   1.61   648.5   209.7   3,574.5
2034   1.62   638.3   205.7   3,522.5
2035   1.63   628.2   201.7   3,471.7
2036   1.64   618.4   197.9   3,422.1
2037   1.65   608.8   194.1   3,373.6
2038   1.66   599.4   190.4   3,326.4
2039   1.67   590.2   186.7   3,280.3
2040   1.67   581.2   183.2   3,235.3
2041   1.68   572.5   179.7   3,191.3
2042   1.69   563.9   176.3   3,148.5
2043   1.69   555.6   172.9   3,106.7
2044   1.69   547.4   169.7   3,065.8
2045   1.70   539.4   166.5   3,026.0
2046   1.70   531.6   163.3   2,987.1
2047   1.70   524.0   160.3   2,949.1
2048   1.70   516.6   157.3   2,912.0
2049   1.70   509.3   154.3   2,875.8
2050   1.70   502.2   151.5   2,840.5
2051   1.70   495.2   148.7   2,805.9
2052   1.70   488.5   145.9   2,772.2
2053   1.70   481.8   143.3   2,739.2
2054   1.70   475.4   140.6   2,707.0
2055   1.70   469.0   138.1   2,675.5
2056   1.70   462.8   135.6   2,644.7
2057   1.70   456.8   133.1   2,614.6
2058   1.70   450.8   130.7   2,585.1
2059   1.70   445.0   128.4   2,556.4
2060   1.70   439.4   126.1   2,528.2
2061   1.70   433.8   123.8   2,500.6
2062   1.70   428.4   121.6   2,473.7
2063   1.70   423.1   119.5   2,447.3
2064   1.70   417.9   117.4   2,421.4
2065   1.70   412.8   115.3   2,396.1
2066   1.70   407.8   113.3   2,371.4
2067   1.70   402.9   111.3   2,347.1
2068   1.70   398.2   109.4   2,323.3
2069   1.70   393.5   107.5   2,300.1
2070   1.70   388.9   105.7   2,277.3
2071   1.70   384.4   103.8   2,254.9
2072   1.70   380.0   102.1   2,233.0
2073   1.70   375.7   100.3   2,211.5
2074   1.70   371.4   98.6   2,190.4
2075   1.70   367.3   96.9   2,169.8
2076   1.70   363.2   95.3   2,149.5
2077   1.70   359.2   93.7   2,129.6
2078   1.70   355.3   92.1   2,110.1
2079   1.70   351.5   90.6   2,091.0
2080   1.70   347.7   89.1   2,072.2
2081   1.70   344.0   87.6   2,053.7
2082   1.70   340.4   86.2   2,035.6
2083   1.70   336.9   84.7   2,017.8
2084   1.70   333.4   83.4   2,000.3
2085   1.70   329.9   82.0   1,983.2
2086   1.70   326.6   80.6   1,966.3
2087   1.70   323.3   79.3   1,949.8
2088   1.70   320.0   78.1   1,933.5
2089   1.70   316.9   76.8   1,917.5
2090   1.70   313.7   75.6   1,901.7
2091   1.70   310.7   74.3   1,886.3
2092   1.70   307.6   73.2   1,871.1
2093   1.70   304.7   72.0   1,856.1
2094   1.70   301.8   70.8   1,841.4
2095   1.70   298.9   69.7   1,826.9
2096   1.70   296.1   68.6   1,812.6
2097   1.70   293.3   67.5   1,798.6
2098   1.70   290.6   66.5   1,784.8
2099   1.70   287.9   65.4   1,771.2
2100   1.70   285.3   64.4   1,757.9
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
f Estimated, intermediate alternative.