Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2026 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,429.1   500.6   7,620.1
1969   2.42   1,383.9   491.3   7,334.8
1970   2.43   1,350.2   485.8   7,113.9
1971   2.25   1,343.7   472.5   7,152.4
1972   1.99   1,337.4   469.8   7,122.1
1973   1.86   1,320.2   462.5   7,038.6
1974   1.82   1,264.3   443.2   6,738.8
1975   1.77   1,214.2   426.2   6,467.8
1976   1.74   1,205.2   415.7   6,469.1
1977   1.80   1,168.9   405.1   6,261.1
1978   1.76   1,165.9   398.0   6,285.6
1979   1.82   1,125.0   385.4   6,056.0
1980   1.82   1,145.2   383.9   6,221.5
1981   1.80   1,113.7   374.4   6,042.6
1982   1.81   1,079.2   362.5   5,857.6
1983   1.78   1,092.9   357.4   5,996.5
1984   1.79   1,084.0   353.6   5,953.5
1985   1.83   1,088.6   352.8   5,994.7
1986   1.83   1,077.1   350.1   5,924.3
1987   1.86   1,066.2   346.8   5,862.5
1988   1.92   1,077.0   346.3   5,948.6
1989   2.00   1,046.0   340.0   5,753.1
1990   2.07   1,026.2   333.3   5,646.0
1991   2.06   1,011.6   329.1   5,562.0
1992   2.04   997.0   322.4   5,494.7
1993   2.02   1,020.9   325.8   5,655.1
1994   2.00   1,007.5   322.1   5,577.8
1995   1.98   1,005.0   318.3   5,582.9
1996   1.98   990.3   306.5   5,549.5
1997   1.97   975.5   293.8   5,520.5
1998   2.00   967.9   286.6   5,510.3
1999   2.01   974.3   284.2   5,575.3
2000   2.05   964.1   281.4   5,515.8
2001   2.03   954.0   280.2   5,445.9
2002   2.03   950.0   279.3   5,421.9
2003   2.05   936.0   278.0   5,323.1
2004   2.06   901.4   270.2   5,109.7
2005   2.06   903.7   271.1   5,121.7
2006   2.11   880.1   267.4   4,965.2
2007   2.12   859.3   261.7   4,843.9
2008   2.07   859.8   258.9   4,866.8
2009   2.00   828.3   255.4   4,647.9
2010   1.93   821.5   248.5   4,641.9
2011   1.89   820.5   248.6   4,633.9
2012   1.87   811.7   247.5   4,573.4
2013   1.85   812.4   248.0   4,575.7
2014   1.86   803.8   249.7   4,498.0
2015   1.84   813.7   253.0   4,552.0
2016   1.81   805.9   258.0   4,458.6
2017   1.76   810.3   258.1   4,492.0
2018   1.73   801.8   254.7   4,449.5
2019   1.70   789.5   253.2   4,365.3
2020   1.64   918.2   300.0   5,040.0
2021   1.66   930.8   334.3   4,907.8
2022   1.65   867.3   294.2   4,688.5
2023   1.60    d 801.5   269.0    d 4,351.3
2024   1.60    e 775.6    e 251.7    e 4,268.3
2025    f 1.59    f 774.2    f 245.8    f 4,296.9

Intermediate:
2026   1.59   769.7   253.2   4,213.4
2027   1.60   764.9   252.1   4,184.1
2028   1.60   759.8   250.7   4,154.2
2029   1.61   754.5   249.1   4,123.9
2030   1.61   749.0   247.4   4,093.3
2031   1.62   743.3   245.5   4,062.5
2032   1.63   737.6   243.5   4,031.7
2033   1.64   731.8   241.5   4,001.0
2034   1.65   726.0   239.4   3,970.3
2035   1.66   720.2   237.3   3,939.9
2036   1.67   714.3   235.1   3,909.6
2037   1.69   708.5   232.9   3,879.6
2038   1.70   702.8   230.7   3,849.9
2039   1.71   697.0   228.6   3,820.5
2040   1.72   691.4   226.4   3,791.5
2041   1.73   685.7   224.2   3,762.7
2042   1.74   680.2   222.1   3,734.3
2043   1.74   674.6   219.9   3,706.2
2044   1.74   669.2   217.8   3,678.4
2045   1.75   663.8   215.7   3,651.0
2046   1.75   658.4   213.6   3,623.9
2047   1.75   653.2   211.6   3,597.2
2048   1.75   647.9   209.6   3,570.8
2049   1.75   642.8   207.5   3,544.7
2050   1.75   637.7   205.5   3,519.0
2051   1.75   632.6   203.5   3,493.5
2052   1.75   627.7   201.6   3,468.4
2053   1.75   622.7   199.7   3,443.6
2054   1.75   617.9   197.7   3,419.1
2055   1.75   613.1   195.9   3,394.9
2056   1.75   608.4   194.0   3,371.1
2057   1.75   603.7   192.1   3,347.5
2058   1.75   599.0   190.3   3,324.2
2059   1.75   594.5   188.5   3,301.2
2060   1.75   590.0   186.7   3,278.5
2061   1.75   585.5   184.9   3,256.1
2062   1.75   581.1   183.2   3,234.0
2063   1.75   576.7   181.5   3,212.1
2064   1.75   572.4   179.8   3,190.5
2065   1.75   568.2   178.1   3,169.2
2066   1.75   564.0   176.4   3,148.1
2067   1.75   559.8   174.8   3,127.3
2068   1.75   555.7   173.1   3,106.7
2069   1.75   551.7   171.5   3,086.4
2070   1.75   547.7   169.9   3,066.3
2071   1.75   543.7   168.4   3,046.5
2072   1.75   539.8   166.8   3,026.9
2073   1.75   536.0   165.3   3,007.6
2074   1.75   532.1   163.7   2,988.4
2075   1.75   528.4   162.2   2,969.5
2076   1.75   524.6   160.7   2,950.9
2077   1.75   520.9   159.3   2,932.4
2078   1.75   517.3   157.8   2,914.2
2079   1.75   513.7   156.4   2,896.1
2080   1.75   510.1   154.9   2,878.3
2081   1.75   506.6   153.5   2,860.7
2082   1.75   503.1   152.1   2,843.3
2083   1.75   499.7   150.7   2,826.1
2084   1.75   496.3   149.4   2,809.1
2085   1.75   492.9   148.0   2,792.3
2086   1.75   489.6   146.7   2,775.7
2087   1.75   486.3   145.4   2,759.2
2088   1.75   483.0   144.1   2,743.0
2089   1.75   479.8   142.8   2,726.9
2090   1.75   476.6   141.5   2,711.1
2091   1.75   473.5   140.2   2,695.4
2092   1.75   470.4   139.0   2,679.8
2093   1.75   467.3   137.7   2,664.5
2094   1.75   464.2   136.5   2,649.3
2095   1.75   461.2   135.3   2,634.3
2096   1.75   458.3   134.1   2,619.4
2097   1.75   455.3   132.9   2,604.7
2098   1.75   452.4   131.8   2,590.2
2099   1.75   449.5   130.6   2,575.8
2100   1.75   446.7   129.4   2,561.6

Low-cost:
2026   1.65   777.6   255.9   4,255.7
2027   1.69   776.8   256.2   4,247.8
2028   1.73   775.8   256.3   4,239.3
2029   1.76   774.6   256.3   4,230.2
2030   1.80   773.1   256.0   4,220.6
2031   1.83   771.5   255.7   4,210.8
2032   1.86   769.8   255.2   4,200.7
2033   1.89   768.0   254.7   4,190.3
2034   1.92   766.1   254.1   4,179.8
2035   1.95   764.2   253.5   4,169.2
2036   1.98   762.2   252.8   4,158.5
2037   2.00   760.2   252.1   4,147.8
2038   2.03   758.2   251.4   4,137.0
2039   2.04   756.1   250.6   4,126.2
2040   2.06   754.0   249.9   4,115.4
2041   2.07   751.9   249.1   4,104.5
2042   2.08   749.8   248.3   4,093.7
2043   2.09   747.7   247.5   4,083.0
2044   2.09   745.7   246.7   4,072.2
2045   2.10   743.6   245.9   4,061.5
2046   2.10   741.5   245.1   4,050.8
2047   2.10   739.4   244.3   4,040.2
2048   2.10   737.3   243.5   4,029.5
2049   2.10   735.2   242.7   4,019.0
2050   2.10   733.2   241.9   4,008.4
2051   2.10   731.1   241.1   3,997.9
2052   2.10   729.0   240.3   3,987.4
2053   2.10   727.0   239.5   3,977.0
2054   2.10   725.0   238.7   3,966.7
2055   2.10   722.9   238.0   3,956.3
2056   2.10   720.9   237.2   3,946.1
2057   2.10   718.9   236.4   3,935.8
2058   2.10   716.9   235.6   3,925.6
2059   2.10   714.9   234.8   3,915.5
2060   2.10   712.9   234.1   3,905.4
2061   2.10   710.9   233.3   3,895.3
2062   2.10   708.9   232.5   3,885.3
2063   2.10   707.0   231.8   3,875.4
2064   2.10   705.0   231.0   3,865.4
2065   2.10   703.1   230.2   3,855.6
2066   2.10   701.1   229.5   3,845.7
2067   2.10   699.2   228.7   3,835.9
2068   2.10   697.3   228.0   3,826.2
2069   2.10   695.4   227.2   3,816.5
2070   2.10   693.5   226.5   3,806.8
2071   2.10   691.6   225.8   3,797.2
2072   2.10   689.7   225.0   3,787.6
2073   2.10   687.8   224.3   3,778.1
2074   2.10   685.9   223.6   3,768.6
2075   2.10   684.0   222.8   3,759.1
2076   2.10   682.2   222.1   3,749.7
2077   2.10   680.3   221.4   3,740.3
2078   2.10   678.5   220.7   3,731.0
2079   2.10   676.7   219.9   3,721.7
2080   2.10   674.8   219.2   3,712.4
2081   2.10   673.0   218.5   3,703.2
2082   2.10   671.2   217.8   3,694.0
2083   2.10   669.4   217.1   3,684.9
2084   2.10   667.6   216.4   3,675.8
2085   2.10   665.8   215.7   3,666.7
2086   2.10   664.0   215.0   3,657.7
2087   2.10   662.2   214.3   3,648.7
2088   2.10   660.5   213.6   3,639.8
2089   2.10   658.7   212.9   3,630.9
2090   2.10   657.0   212.2   3,622.0
2091   2.10   655.2   211.6   3,613.2
2092   2.10   653.5   210.9   3,604.4
2093   2.10   651.7   210.2   3,595.7
2094   2.10   650.0   209.5   3,586.9
2095   2.10   648.3   208.8   3,578.3
2096   2.10   646.6   208.2   3,569.6
2097   2.10   644.9   207.5   3,561.0
2098   2.10   643.2   206.8   3,552.5
2099   2.10   641.5   206.2   3,543.9
2100   2.10   639.8   205.5   3,535.4

High-cost:
2026   1.54   760.6   250.1   4,164.8
2027   1.51   750.9   247.1   4,109.4
2028   1.48   740.6   243.9   4,052.7
2029   1.45   730.1   240.3   3,995.4
2030   1.43   719.3   236.6   3,937.8
2031   1.41   708.5   232.7   3,880.4
2032   1.40   697.6   228.8   3,823.4
2033   1.38   686.8   224.8   3,767.0
2034   1.38   676.0   220.8   3,711.5
2035   1.37   665.4   216.8   3,656.9
2036   1.37   655.0   212.8   3,603.3
2037   1.37   644.7   208.8   3,550.8
2038   1.37   634.6   205.0   3,499.4
2039   1.38   624.7   201.1   3,449.2
2040   1.38   615.1   197.4   3,400.0
2041   1.39   605.6   193.6   3,352.1
2042   1.39   596.3   190.0   3,305.2
2043   1.39   587.2   186.4   3,259.4
2044   1.40   578.4   182.9   3,214.8
2045   1.40   569.7   179.5   3,171.2
2046   1.40   561.2   176.2   3,128.6
2047   1.40   553.0   172.9   3,087.1
2048   1.40   544.9   169.7   3,046.6
2049   1.40   537.0   166.5   3,007.0
2050   1.40   529.3   163.4   2,968.3
2051   1.40   521.7   160.4   2,930.6
2052   1.40   514.4   157.5   2,893.7
2053   1.40   507.2   154.6   2,857.7
2054   1.40   500.1   151.8   2,822.6
2055   1.40   493.2   149.0   2,788.3
2056   1.40   486.5   146.3   2,754.8
2057   1.40   480.0   143.7   2,722.0
2058   1.40   473.5   141.1   2,690.0
2059   1.40   467.3   138.6   2,658.7
2060   1.40   461.1   136.1   2,628.1
2061   1.40   455.1   133.7   2,598.2
2062   1.40   449.3   131.3   2,569.0
2063   1.40   443.5   129.0   2,540.4
2064   1.40   437.9   126.7   2,512.4
2065   1.40   432.4   124.5   2,485.0
2066   1.40   427.0   122.3   2,458.3
2067   1.40   421.7   120.2   2,432.0
2068   1.40   416.6   118.1   2,406.4
2069   1.40   411.5   116.1   2,381.3
2070   1.40   406.6   114.1   2,356.6
2071   1.40   401.8   112.2   2,332.6
2072   1.40   397.0   110.2   2,309.0
2073   1.40   392.4   108.4   2,285.8
2074   1.40   387.8   106.5   2,263.2
2075   1.40   383.4   104.7   2,241.0
2076   1.40   379.0   103.0   2,219.2
2077   1.40   374.7   101.3   2,197.8
2078   1.40   370.5   99.6   2,176.9
2079   1.40   366.4   97.9   2,156.4
2080   1.40   362.3   96.3   2,136.3
2081   1.40   358.4   94.7   2,116.5
2082   1.40   354.5   93.1   2,097.1
2083   1.40   350.7   91.6   2,078.1
2084   1.40   347.0   90.1   2,059.5
2085   1.40   343.3   88.6   2,041.1
2086   1.40   339.7   87.2   2,023.1
2087   1.40   336.2   85.8   2,005.5
2088   1.40   332.7   84.4   1,988.1
2089   1.40   329.3   83.0   1,971.1
2090   1.40   325.9   81.7   1,954.3
2091   1.40   322.7   80.4   1,937.9
2092   1.40   319.4   79.1   1,921.7
2093   1.40   316.3   77.9   1,905.8
2094   1.40   313.2   76.6   1,890.1
2095   1.40   310.1   75.4   1,874.8
2096   1.40   307.1   74.3   1,859.7
2097   1.40   304.2   73.1   1,844.8
2098   1.40   301.3   72.0   1,830.2
2099   1.40   298.4   70.8   1,815.8
2100   1.40   295.6   69.7   1,801.6
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated using preliminary data.
f Estimated using partial-year, provisional data.