Description of Proposed Provision:
A8: Starting December 2018, for OASI beneficiaries only (DI beneficiaries would only be affected when their benefit converts to OASI at NRA), the annual COLA would be based on the chain-weighted version of the CPI-U.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.67 | 12.94 | -0.72 | 274 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2020 | 13.79 | 12.96 | -0.83 | 260 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2021 | 13.92 | 12.99 | -0.93 | 247 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2022 | 14.12 | 13.02 | -1.10 | 234 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2023 | 14.37 | 13.04 | -1.33 | 220 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2024 | 14.62 | 13.07 | -1.55 | 205 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2025 | 14.86 | 13.09 | -1.77 | 190 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2026 | 15.10 | 13.12 | -1.98 | 174 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2027 | 15.31 | 13.13 | -2.18 | 158 | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2028 | 15.52 | 13.15 | -2.37 | 142 | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2029 | 15.70 | 13.16 | -2.54 | 126 | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2030 | 15.87 | 13.17 | -2.70 | 109 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2031 | 16.03 | 13.18 | -2.84 | 93 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2032 | 16.16 | 13.19 | -2.97 | 76 | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.42 | ||
| 2033 | 16.27 | 13.20 | -3.07 | 58 | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2034 | 16.36 | 13.21 | -3.15 | 40 | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2035 | 16.42 | 13.21 | -3.20 | 21 | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2036 | 16.46 | 13.22 | -3.24 | 3 | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2037 | 16.48 | 13.22 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2038 | 16.46 | 13.22 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2039 | 16.43 | 13.22 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2040 | 16.38 | 13.21 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2041 | 16.32 | 13.21 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2042 | 16.26 | 13.21 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2043 | 16.20 | 13.21 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2044 | 16.15 | 13.20 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2045 | 16.11 | 13.20 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2046 | 16.07 | 13.20 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2047 | 16.04 | 13.20 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2048 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2049 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2050 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2051 | 15.95 | 13.20 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2052 | 15.95 | 13.20 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2053 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2054 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2055 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2056 | 16.05 | 13.21 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2057 | 16.09 | 13.21 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2058 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2059 | 16.18 | 13.22 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2060 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2061 | 16.26 | 13.22 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2062 | 16.31 | 13.22 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2063 | 16.36 | 13.23 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2064 | 16.40 | 13.23 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2065 | 16.45 | 13.23 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2066 | 16.49 | 13.24 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2067 | 16.54 | 13.24 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2068 | 16.59 | 13.24 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2069 | 16.64 | 13.25 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2070 | 16.69 | 13.25 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2071 | 16.73 | 13.25 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2072 | 16.77 | 13.25 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2073 | 16.80 | 13.26 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2074 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2075 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2076 | 16.86 | 13.26 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2077 | 16.87 | 13.26 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2078 | 16.86 | 13.26 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2079 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2080 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2081 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2082 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2083 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2084 | 16.86 | 13.26 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2085 | 16.88 | 13.26 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2086 | 16.91 | 13.26 | -3.65 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2087 | 16.94 | 13.26 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2088 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2089 | 17.03 | 13.27 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2090 | 17.07 | 13.27 | -3.80 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2091 | 17.12 | 13.28 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2092 | 17.16 | 13.28 | -3.89 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.15% | 13.81% | -2.34% | 2036 | -0.52% | -0.03% | 0.49% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.