Description of Proposed Provision:
A3: Starting December 2019, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201813.8112.64-1.17
288
0.000.000.00
201913.9512.87-1.08
272
0.000.000.00
202014.0812.89-1.19
257
-0.04-0.000.04
202114.1912.92-1.28
241
-0.08-0.000.08
202214.3212.94-1.37
225
-0.12-0.000.12
202314.4612.96-1.50
209
-0.16-0.010.16
202414.6012.99-1.62
193
-0.20-0.010.19
202514.7413.00-1.74
178
-0.24-0.010.23
202614.8813.12-1.76
162
-0.28-0.010.26
202715.0513.14-1.91
147
-0.32-0.020.30
202815.2313.15-2.08
132
-0.35-0.020.33
202915.4013.17-2.24
117
-0.39-0.020.37
203015.5613.18-2.38
102
-0.42-0.020.40
203115.7113.19-2.52
86
-0.45-0.020.43
203215.8313.20-2.63
71
-0.48-0.030.46
203315.9413.21-2.73
55
-0.51-0.030.48
203416.0313.22-2.81
38
-0.54-0.030.51
203516.0913.22-2.87
22
-0.56-0.030.53
203616.1413.23-2.91
4
-0.58-0.030.55
203716.1813.23-2.95
----
-0.61-0.030.57
203816.2013.24-2.96
----
-0.62-0.030.59
203916.1913.24-2.95
----
-0.64-0.040.61
204016.1713.24-2.94
----
-0.66-0.040.62
204116.1413.24-2.91
----
-0.67-0.040.63
204216.1013.23-2.86
----
-0.68-0.040.64
204316.0513.23-2.82
----
-0.69-0.040.65
204416.0013.23-2.77
----
-0.69-0.040.65
204515.9613.23-2.73
----
-0.70-0.040.66
204615.9213.23-2.70
----
-0.70-0.040.66
204715.8913.23-2.67
----
-0.71-0.040.67
204815.8713.23-2.64
----
-0.71-0.040.67
204915.8413.23-2.62
----
-0.71-0.040.67
205015.8313.23-2.60
----
-0.71-0.040.67
205115.8213.23-2.59
----
-0.71-0.040.67
205215.8213.23-2.59
----
-0.71-0.040.67
205315.8313.23-2.60
----
-0.72-0.040.67
205415.8413.23-2.61
----
-0.72-0.040.68
205515.8713.24-2.64
----
-0.72-0.040.68
205615.9113.24-2.67
----
-0.72-0.040.68
205715.9513.24-2.70
----
-0.72-0.040.68
205815.9913.25-2.74
----
-0.72-0.040.68
205916.0413.25-2.79
----
-0.72-0.040.68
206016.0813.25-2.83
----
-0.73-0.040.69
206116.1313.26-2.87
----
-0.73-0.040.69
206216.1813.26-2.92
----
-0.73-0.040.69
206316.2313.26-2.96
----
-0.74-0.040.69
206416.2713.27-3.01
----
-0.74-0.040.70
206516.3213.27-3.05
----
-0.74-0.040.70
206616.3813.28-3.10
----
-0.75-0.040.71
206716.4313.28-3.15
----
-0.75-0.040.71
206816.4913.28-3.20
----
-0.76-0.040.71
206916.5413.29-3.25
----
-0.76-0.040.72
207016.6013.29-3.31
----
-0.77-0.040.72
207116.6513.29-3.35
----
-0.77-0.040.73
207216.6913.30-3.40
----
-0.78-0.040.73
207316.7313.30-3.43
----
-0.78-0.050.73
207416.7713.30-3.47
----
-0.78-0.050.74
207516.8013.31-3.49
----
-0.79-0.050.74
207616.8213.31-3.51
----
-0.79-0.050.74
207716.8313.31-3.52
----
-0.79-0.050.75
207816.8313.31-3.52
----
-0.80-0.050.75
207916.8213.31-3.51
----
-0.80-0.050.75
208016.8013.31-3.50
----
-0.80-0.050.75
208116.7913.31-3.48
----
-0.80-0.050.76
208216.7713.31-3.46
----
-0.80-0.050.76
208316.7513.31-3.44
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208416.7313.30-3.43
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208516.7213.30-3.42
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208616.7213.30-3.42
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208716.7213.30-3.42
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208816.7413.30-3.43
----
-0.81-0.050.76
208916.7613.31-3.45
----
-0.81-0.050.76
209016.7913.31-3.48
----
-0.81-0.050.76
209116.8213.31-3.51
----
-0.81-0.050.77
209216.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.82-0.050.77
209316.9113.32-3.59
----
-0.82-0.050.77


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2018-2092 16.08% 13.81% -2.27%
2036
-0.61% -0.03% 0.58%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.