Description of Proposed Provision:
H2: Starting in 2019, tax Social Security benefits in a manner similar to private pension income. Phase out the lower-income thresholds during 2019-2038.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.96 | -0.99 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 13.00 | -1.12 | 257 | -0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 13.04 | -1.23 | 241 | -0.00 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 13.09 | -1.35 | 225 | -0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 13.12 | -1.50 | 209 | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 13.16 | -1.64 | 192 | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.19 | -1.79 | 176 | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.19 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.35 | -1.80 | 160 | -0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.38 | -1.98 | 145 | -0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.41 | -2.17 | 129 | -0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 | ||
| 2029 | 15.79 | 13.43 | -2.36 | 113 | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
| 2030 | 15.98 | 13.45 | -2.53 | 98 | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
| 2031 | 16.16 | 13.47 | -2.69 | 82 | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.26 | ||
| 2032 | 16.32 | 13.48 | -2.83 | 65 | -0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 | ||
| 2033 | 16.45 | 13.50 | -2.96 | 49 | -0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 | ||
| 2034 | 16.56 | 13.50 | -3.06 | 32 | -0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 | ||
| 2035 | 16.65 | 13.51 | -3.14 | 14 | -0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 | ||
| 2036 | 16.72 | 13.51 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
| 2037 | 16.78 | 13.52 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
| 2038 | 16.82 | 13.52 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
| 2039 | 16.83 | 13.51 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 | ||
| 2040 | 16.83 | 13.51 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.23 | 0.24 | ||
| 2041 | 16.81 | 13.50 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 | ||
| 2042 | 16.77 | 13.50 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||
| 2043 | 16.73 | 13.49 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 | ||
| 2044 | 16.69 | 13.48 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 | ||
| 2045 | 16.66 | 13.48 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 | ||
| 2046 | 16.63 | 13.47 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
| 2047 | 16.60 | 13.47 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
| 2048 | 16.58 | 13.46 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
| 2049 | 16.55 | 13.46 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2050 | 16.54 | 13.46 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2051 | 16.53 | 13.45 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2052 | 16.53 | 13.45 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2053 | 16.54 | 13.45 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2054 | 16.56 | 13.45 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2055 | 16.59 | 13.45 | -3.14 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2056 | 16.62 | 13.45 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2057 | 16.66 | 13.46 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2058 | 16.71 | 13.46 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2059 | 16.76 | 13.46 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2060 | 16.81 | 13.47 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2061 | 16.86 | 13.47 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2062 | 16.91 | 13.47 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2063 | 16.96 | 13.47 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2064 | 17.01 | 13.48 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2065 | 17.07 | 13.48 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||
| 2066 | 17.12 | 13.48 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2067 | 17.18 | 13.49 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2068 | 17.24 | 13.49 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2069 | 17.30 | 13.49 | -3.81 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2070 | 17.36 | 13.50 | -3.87 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2071 | 17.42 | 13.50 | -3.92 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2072 | 17.47 | 13.50 | -3.96 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2073 | 17.51 | 13.51 | -4.01 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2074 | 17.55 | 13.51 | -4.04 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2075 | 17.59 | 13.51 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2076 | 17.61 | 13.51 | -4.10 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2077 | 17.62 | 13.51 | -4.11 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2078 | 17.63 | 13.51 | -4.11 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2079 | 17.62 | 13.51 | -4.11 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2080 | 17.61 | 13.51 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2081 | 17.59 | 13.51 | -4.08 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||
| 2082 | 17.57 | 13.51 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.16 | ||
| 2083 | 17.55 | 13.51 | -4.05 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2084 | 17.54 | 13.50 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2085 | 17.53 | 13.50 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2086 | 17.53 | 13.50 | -4.02 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2087 | 17.53 | 13.50 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2088 | 17.55 | 13.50 | -4.04 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2089 | 17.57 | 13.50 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2090 | 17.60 | 13.51 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2091 | 17.64 | 13.51 | -4.13 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2092 | 17.68 | 13.51 | -4.17 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
| 2093 | 17.72 | 13.52 | -4.21 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.69% | 14.03% | -2.65% | 2035 | -0.00% | 0.19% | 0.19% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.