Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.3: For the OASI and DI computation of the PIA, gradually reduce the maximum number of drop-out years from 5 to 0, phased in over the years 2020-2028.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 240 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.43 | 12.95 | -1.48 | 223 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2023 | 14.60 | 12.96 | -1.64 | 206 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2024 | 14.77 | 12.99 | -1.78 | 189 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2025 | 14.94 | 13.01 | -1.93 | 172 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2026 | 15.09 | 13.13 | -1.96 | 155 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2027 | 15.27 | 13.15 | -2.12 | 139 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2028 | 15.46 | 13.17 | -2.29 | 123 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2029 | 15.63 | 13.18 | -2.45 | 107 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2030 | 15.79 | 13.19 | -2.59 | 91 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2031 | 15.92 | 13.20 | -2.72 | 74 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2032 | 16.04 | 13.21 | -2.83 | 58 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2033 | 16.14 | 13.22 | -2.92 | 41 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2034 | 16.21 | 13.23 | -2.98 | 24 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2035 | 16.26 | 13.23 | -3.03 | 6 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2036 | 16.30 | 13.24 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2037 | 16.32 | 13.24 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2038 | 16.33 | 13.25 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.02 | 0.47 | ||
| 2039 | 16.31 | 13.25 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2040 | 16.28 | 13.25 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2041 | 16.23 | 13.24 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2042 | 16.17 | 13.24 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2043 | 16.11 | 13.24 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.03 | 0.60 | ||
| 2044 | 16.04 | 13.24 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.03 | 0.62 | ||
| 2045 | 15.99 | 13.23 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.03 | 0.64 | ||
| 2046 | 15.93 | 13.23 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2047 | 15.88 | 13.23 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2048 | 15.84 | 13.23 | -2.61 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2049 | 15.80 | 13.23 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2050 | 15.77 | 13.23 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2051 | 15.74 | 13.23 | -2.52 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2052 | 15.73 | 13.23 | -2.50 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2053 | 15.73 | 13.23 | -2.50 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
| 2054 | 15.73 | 13.23 | -2.50 | ---- | -0.83 | -0.04 | 0.79 | ||
| 2055 | 15.75 | 13.23 | -2.52 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2056 | 15.77 | 13.23 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.85 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2057 | 15.80 | 13.24 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2058 | 15.84 | 13.24 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.83 | ||
| 2059 | 15.88 | 13.24 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.05 | 0.83 | ||
| 2060 | 15.92 | 13.25 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2061 | 15.97 | 13.25 | -2.71 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2062 | 16.01 | 13.25 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2063 | 16.06 | 13.26 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2064 | 16.11 | 13.26 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.91 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2065 | 16.15 | 13.26 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.91 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2066 | 16.21 | 13.27 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2067 | 16.26 | 13.27 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2068 | 16.32 | 13.28 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2069 | 16.37 | 13.28 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2070 | 16.43 | 13.28 | -3.14 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2071 | 16.48 | 13.29 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2072 | 16.53 | 13.29 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2073 | 16.57 | 13.29 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2074 | 16.60 | 13.30 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2075 | 16.64 | 13.30 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2076 | 16.66 | 13.30 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2077 | 16.67 | 13.30 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2078 | 16.67 | 13.30 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2079 | 16.67 | 13.30 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2080 | 16.65 | 13.30 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2081 | 16.64 | 13.30 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2082 | 16.62 | 13.30 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2083 | 16.60 | 13.30 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2084 | 16.59 | 13.30 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2085 | 16.58 | 13.30 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2086 | 16.58 | 13.30 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2087 | 16.58 | 13.30 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2088 | 16.59 | 13.30 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2089 | 16.62 | 13.30 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2090 | 16.64 | 13.30 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2091 | 16.68 | 13.30 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2092 | 16.72 | 13.31 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2093 | 16.76 | 13.31 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.06% | 13.81% | -2.25% | 2035 | -0.62% | -0.03% | 0.59% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.