Description of Proposed Provision:
A4: Starting December 2022, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average. The new COLA will not apply to DI benefits. It will apply to OASI benefits, except for those of formerly disabled-workers who converted to retired-worker status.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.3612.94-1.43
214
-0.03-0.000.03
202414.5212.97-1.55
198
-0.07-0.000.06
202514.6812.98-1.70
182
-0.10-0.000.10
202614.8513.10-1.75
166
-0.13-0.010.13
202715.0213.12-1.90
151
-0.17-0.010.16
202815.2313.16-2.07
135
-0.20-0.010.19
202915.3913.18-2.21
120
-0.24-0.010.22
203015.5413.19-2.35
104
-0.27-0.020.25
203115.6713.20-2.47
89
-0.30-0.020.28
203215.7813.21-2.57
73
-0.33-0.020.31
203315.8813.22-2.66
58
-0.36-0.020.34
203415.9413.22-2.72
41
-0.38-0.020.36
203515.9913.23-2.77
25
-0.41-0.020.38
203616.0313.23-2.80
8
-0.43-0.020.40
203716.0713.24-2.83
----
-0.45-0.030.42
203816.1013.24-2.86
----
-0.47-0.030.44
203916.1213.24-2.88
----
-0.48-0.030.46
204016.1213.24-2.87
----
-0.50-0.030.47
204116.1013.24-2.85
----
-0.51-0.030.48
204216.0713.24-2.82
----
-0.52-0.030.49
204316.0213.24-2.78
----
-0.53-0.030.50
204415.9813.24-2.74
----
-0.54-0.030.51
204515.9413.24-2.70
----
-0.55-0.030.51
204615.9013.24-2.66
----
-0.55-0.030.52
204715.8713.24-2.63
----
-0.56-0.030.52
204815.8513.24-2.61
----
-0.56-0.030.53
204915.8213.24-2.59
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205015.8113.24-2.57
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205115.8013.24-2.56
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205215.8013.24-2.56
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205315.8113.24-2.57
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205415.8213.24-2.58
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205515.8513.24-2.60
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205615.8813.25-2.63
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205715.9213.25-2.67
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205815.9613.25-2.71
----
-0.56-0.030.53
205916.0113.26-2.75
----
-0.57-0.030.53
206016.0613.26-2.80
----
-0.57-0.030.53
206116.1113.27-2.84
----
-0.57-0.030.53
206216.1613.27-2.89
----
-0.57-0.030.54
206316.2213.27-2.94
----
-0.57-0.030.54
206416.2713.28-2.99
----
-0.58-0.030.54
206516.3213.28-3.04
----
-0.58-0.030.54
206616.3713.29-3.09
----
-0.58-0.040.55
206716.4313.29-3.14
----
-0.58-0.040.55
206816.4913.29-3.19
----
-0.59-0.040.55
206916.5413.30-3.25
----
-0.59-0.040.55
207016.6013.30-3.30
----
-0.59-0.040.56
207116.6513.31-3.35
----
-0.60-0.040.56
207216.7013.31-3.39
----
-0.60-0.040.56
207316.7513.31-3.43
----
-0.60-0.040.57
207416.7913.32-3.47
----
-0.61-0.040.57
207516.8213.32-3.50
----
-0.61-0.040.57
207616.8513.32-3.53
----
-0.61-0.040.57
207716.8613.32-3.54
----
-0.61-0.040.58
207816.8713.32-3.54
----
-0.62-0.040.58
207916.8613.32-3.54
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208016.8413.32-3.52
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208116.8313.32-3.50
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208216.8013.32-3.48
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208316.7813.32-3.46
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208416.7613.32-3.44
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208516.7313.32-3.42
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208616.7213.32-3.40
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208716.7113.31-3.39
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208816.7113.31-3.39
----
-0.62-0.040.58
208916.7213.31-3.40
----
-0.62-0.040.58
209016.7413.32-3.42
----
-0.62-0.040.58
209116.7713.32-3.45
----
-0.62-0.040.58
209216.8113.32-3.49
----
-0.62-0.040.58
209316.8513.32-3.53
----
-0.62-0.040.58
209416.9013.33-3.57
----
-0.62-0.040.58


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 16.13% 13.78% -2.34%
2036
-0.47% -0.03% 0.44%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.