Description of Proposed Provision:
G1: Invest 40 percent of the OASDI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2019-2033), assuming an ultimate 6.2 percent annual real rate of return on equities.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201813.8112.64-1.17
288
0.000.000.00
201913.9512.87-1.08
272
0.000.000.00
202014.1212.89-1.23
256
0.000.000.00
202114.2712.92-1.35
240
0.000.000.00
202214.4412.95-1.49
224
0.000.000.00
202314.6212.97-1.66
208
0.000.000.00
202414.8012.99-1.81
192
0.000.000.00
202514.9813.01-1.98
177
0.000.000.00
202615.1613.13-2.02
161
0.000.000.00
202715.3613.15-2.21
146
0.000.000.00
202815.5813.17-2.41
130
0.000.000.00
202915.7913.19-2.60
115
0.000.000.00
203015.9813.20-2.78
99
-0.000.000.00
203116.1613.22-2.94
83
0.000.000.00
203216.3213.23-3.09
66
-0.000.000.00
203316.4513.24-3.21
48
0.000.000.00
203416.5713.25-3.32
30
0.000.000.00
203516.6513.25-3.40
11
0.000.000.00
203616.7213.26-3.46
----
0.000.000.00
203716.7813.27-3.52
----
0.000.000.00
203816.8213.27-3.55
----
0.000.000.00
203916.8313.27-3.56
----
0.000.000.00
204016.8313.27-3.56
----
0.000.000.00
204116.8113.27-3.54
----
0.000.000.00
204216.7813.27-3.50
----
0.000.000.00
204316.7313.27-3.46
----
0.000.000.00
204416.6913.27-3.42
----
0.000.000.00
204516.6613.27-3.39
----
0.000.000.00
204616.6313.27-3.36
----
0.000.000.00
204716.6013.27-3.33
----
0.000.000.00
204816.5813.27-3.31
----
0.000.000.00
204916.5513.27-3.29
----
0.000.000.00
205016.5413.27-3.27
----
0.000.000.00
205116.5313.27-3.27
----
0.000.000.00
205216.5313.27-3.26
----
0.000.000.00
205316.5413.27-3.27
----
0.000.000.00
205416.5613.27-3.29
----
0.000.000.00
205516.5913.28-3.31
----
0.000.000.00
205616.6213.28-3.34
----
0.000.000.00
205716.6713.28-3.38
----
0.000.000.00
205816.7113.29-3.43
----
0.000.000.00
205916.7613.29-3.47
----
0.000.000.00
206016.8113.29-3.51
----
0.000.000.00
206116.8613.30-3.56
----
0.000.000.00
206216.9113.30-3.61
----
0.000.000.00
206316.9613.31-3.66
----
0.000.000.00
206417.0113.31-3.70
----
0.000.000.00
206517.0713.31-3.75
----
0.000.000.00
206617.1313.32-3.81
----
0.000.000.00
206717.1813.32-3.86
----
0.000.000.00
206817.2413.33-3.92
----
0.000.000.00
206917.3013.33-3.97
----
0.000.000.00
207017.3613.34-4.03
----
0.000.000.00
207117.4213.34-4.08
----
0.000.000.00
207217.4713.34-4.13
----
0.000.000.00
207317.5113.35-4.17
----
0.000.000.00
207417.5513.35-4.20
----
0.000.000.00
207517.5913.35-4.23
----
0.000.000.00
207617.6113.35-4.26
----
0.000.000.00
207717.6213.36-4.27
----
0.000.000.00
207817.6313.36-4.27
----
0.000.000.00
207917.6213.36-4.26
----
0.000.000.00
208017.6113.36-4.25
----
0.000.000.00
208117.5913.35-4.23
----
0.000.000.00
208217.5713.35-4.22
----
0.000.000.00
208317.5513.35-4.20
----
0.000.000.00
208417.5413.35-4.19
----
0.000.000.00
208517.5313.35-4.18
----
0.000.000.00
208617.5313.35-4.18
----
0.000.000.00
208717.5313.35-4.18
----
0.000.000.00
208817.5513.35-4.19
----
0.000.000.00
208917.5713.35-4.22
----
0.000.000.00
209017.6013.35-4.24
----
0.000.000.00
209117.6413.36-4.28
----
0.000.000.00
209217.6813.36-4.32
----
0.000.000.00
209317.7213.36-4.36
----
0.000.000.00


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2018-2092  16.39%2 14.06%2 -2.33%2
2035 
-0.30%2 0.21%2 0.51%2

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
2 A change in the investment of trust fund reserves to include some equities affects the size of all summarized measures because increased "present-value" discounting reduces the weight on values for more distant future years. As a result, the magnitude of the current-law actuarial balance and the summarized effects of most proposals is reduced. Therefore, the size of the change in the long-range actuarial balance indicated here cannot be interpreted directly as a reduction in the shortfall. The actual reduction in the shortfall from equity investment depends on the amount of reserves that are available for investment throughout the period. For example, if provisions to change revenue or scheduled benefits resulted in a purely pay-as-you-go system (reserves just above zero throughout the period), then investment in equities would have no effect on the actuarial balance.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.