Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.7: Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA factors for individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2027 through 2064: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4012.94-1.46
213
0.000.000.00
202414.5912.97-1.62
197
0.000.000.00
202514.7912.99-1.80
180
0.000.000.00
202614.9913.11-1.88
163
0.000.000.00
202715.1913.13-2.06
147
-0.00-0.000.00
202815.4313.17-2.26
130
-0.00-0.000.00
202915.6213.19-2.43
114
-0.00-0.000.00
203015.8013.20-2.59
97
-0.01-0.000.01
203115.9513.22-2.74
80
-0.01-0.000.01
203216.0913.23-2.86
63
-0.02-0.000.02
203316.2013.24-2.97
46
-0.03-0.000.03
203416.2813.24-3.04
28
-0.05-0.000.04
203516.3313.25-3.09
10
-0.07-0.000.06
203616.3713.25-3.12
----
-0.09-0.010.08
203716.4013.26-3.14
----
-0.12-0.010.11
203816.4213.26-3.16
----
-0.15-0.010.14
203916.4213.26-3.16
----
-0.19-0.010.17
204016.3913.26-3.13
----
-0.22-0.010.21
204116.3513.26-3.09
----
-0.26-0.020.25
204216.2813.26-3.03
----
-0.31-0.020.29
204316.2013.25-2.95
----
-0.35-0.020.33
204416.1213.25-2.87
----
-0.40-0.020.38
204516.0313.24-2.79
----
-0.45-0.030.43
204615.9513.24-2.71
----
-0.51-0.030.48
204715.8613.24-2.63
----
-0.56-0.030.53
204815.7813.23-2.55
----
-0.62-0.040.59
204915.7013.23-2.47
----
-0.68-0.040.64
205015.6213.23-2.40
----
-0.74-0.040.70
205115.5513.22-2.33
----
-0.81-0.050.76
205215.4913.22-2.27
----
-0.87-0.050.82
205315.4313.22-2.21
----
-0.94-0.060.88
205415.3813.21-2.16
----
-1.01-0.060.95
205515.3313.21-2.12
----
-1.08-0.061.01
205615.2913.21-2.08
----
-1.15-0.071.08
205715.2613.21-2.05
----
-1.22-0.071.15
205815.2313.21-2.02
----
-1.29-0.081.22
205915.2113.21-2.00
----
-1.37-0.081.28
206015.1913.21-1.98
----
-1.44-0.091.35
206115.1713.21-1.96
----
-1.51-0.091.42
206215.1513.21-1.94
----
-1.58-0.101.49
206315.1313.21-1.92
----
-1.65-0.101.55
206415.1213.21-1.91
----
-1.73-0.101.62
206515.1013.21-1.89
----
-1.80-0.111.69
206615.0913.21-1.88
----
-1.87-0.111.75
206715.0813.21-1.87
----
-1.93-0.121.82
206815.0713.21-1.86
----
-2.00-0.121.88
206915.0613.21-1.85
----
-2.07-0.131.95
207015.0613.21-1.85
----
-2.14-0.132.01
207115.0513.21-1.84
----
-2.20-0.132.07
207215.0413.21-1.83
----
-2.26-0.142.12
207315.0313.21-1.82
----
-2.32-0.142.18
207415.0213.21-1.81
----
-2.37-0.142.23
207515.0113.21-1.80
----
-2.42-0.152.28
207614.9913.21-1.78
----
-2.47-0.152.32
207714.9613.21-1.76
----
-2.51-0.152.36
207814.9313.21-1.73
----
-2.55-0.162.39
207914.9013.20-1.69
----
-2.58-0.162.42
208014.8613.20-1.65
----
-2.61-0.162.45
208114.8113.20-1.61
----
-2.63-0.162.47
208214.7713.20-1.57
----
-2.65-0.162.49
208314.7313.19-1.54
----
-2.67-0.162.51
208414.6913.19-1.50
----
-2.69-0.162.52
208514.6513.19-1.47
----
-2.70-0.172.54
208614.6313.19-1.44
----
-2.71-0.172.55
208714.6013.19-1.42
----
-2.72-0.172.56
208814.5913.18-1.41
----
-2.74-0.172.57
208914.5913.18-1.40
----
-2.75-0.172.58
209014.6013.18-1.41
----
-2.76-0.172.59
209114.6113.19-1.43
----
-2.77-0.172.60
209214.6413.19-1.45
----
-2.79-0.172.62
209314.6713.19-1.48
----
-2.80-0.172.63
209414.7113.19-1.51
----
-2.82-0.172.64


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 15.47% 13.74% -1.72%
2035
-1.13% -0.07% 1.06%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.